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BOPCOM-00/18ThirteenthMeetingoftheIMFCommitteeonBalanceofPaymentsStatisticsWashington,D.
C.
,October23–27,2000ReportoftheWorkProgramofInter-AgencyTaskForceonFinanceStatisticsandRelatedIssuesPreparedbytheStatisticsDepartmentInternationalMonetaryFundC:\WIN\TemporaryInternetFiles\OLK3020\00-18.
DocMay21,2001(5:08PM)ReportonWorkProgramofInter-AgencyTaskForceonFinanceStatisticsandRelatedIssuesIntroductionTheneedforcomprehensiveandreliableinformationonexternaldebthaslongbeenrecognized,asfuturedebtrepaymentobligationshavethepotentialtocreatecircumstancesthatrenderaneconomyvulnerabletoliquidityandsustainabilityproblems.
ExternaldebtandinternationalinvestmentpositionstatisticshavebeenassignedatoppriorityintheworkprogramoftheIMFCommitteeonBalanceofPaymentsStatistics.
Givenfinancialmarketdevelopmentsinrecentyears,suchasthehugegrowthinprivatesectorfinancialflowsand,associatedwiththis,theincreasinguseofinstrumentstomanageandredistributerisks,theinternationalagenciesworkingundertheauspicesoftheInter-AgencyTaskForceonFinanceStatistics(TFFS)1arenowupdatingExternalDebt:Definition,StatisticalCoverageandMethodologywidelyknownastheGreyBookthatwaspublishedin1988bytheBIS,IMF,OECD,andWorldBank.
ThenewExternalDebtStatistics:GuideforCompilersandUsers(DebtGuide)willprovideclearandconsistentguidelinesforthemeasurementandpresentationofexternaldebtdata,andprovideadviceontheircompilationanduse.
Atthesametime,theFundhasundertakenanumberofotherinitiativesrelatingtoexternaldebtstatistics,mostimportantlytheintroductionofanewexternaldebtdatacategoryintheSpecialDataDisseminationStandard(SDDS)andtheinclusioninthecoredatacategoryoftheGeneralDataDisseminationStandard(GDDS)publicandpubliclyguaranteedexternaldebt,andtheassociateddebtserviceschedule.
ThesedecisionsweretakenbytheFund'sExecutiveBoardduringtheirthirdreviewoftheFund'sdatastandardsinitiativesinMarch2000.
InpreparingtheBoardpaperonthethirdReviewoftheFund'sDataStandardsInitiatives,theFundstaffconsultedwidelyontheappropriatetransitionperiodsforimplementingthenewproposalsforexternaldebtdataintheSDDS.
AninternationalconferencehostedbytheFundinFebruaryincooperationwiththeFinancialStabilityForumWorkingGrouponCapitalFlowsformedpartoftheconsultation.
Themorethan100datacompilersanddatausersthatparticipatedintheconferencebroughtavarietyofperspectivestothediscussionontheneedforcertaintypesofexternal-sectordata,includingexternaldebtstatistics.
InconnectionwiththeDebtGuide,theFundsponsoredanumberofregionalseminarsonexternaldebtstatisticstomakecompilersawareofthenewSDDSandGDDSrequirementsforexternaldebtstatisticsandtodiscusshowbesttomeettheneedsfor1TheTaskForceischairedbytheIMFanditsrecentworkhasincludedrepresentativesfromtheBankforInternationalSettlements,theCommonwealthSecretariat,theEuropeanCentralBank,theEuropeanStatisticalOffice,theInternationalMonetaryFund,theOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment,theParisClubSecretariat,theUnitedNationsConferenceonTradeandDevelopment,andtheWorldBank.
-2-thesestatisticsatthenationalandinternationallevel.
Thefirstofthese,forAsiancountries,washeldinSingaporeinMarch2000andasecond,forEasternEuropeancountries,washeldinAugust-September2000inVienna.
ThisnoteprovidestheCommitteewithbackgroundinformationoneachofthesefourareas,namelythepreparationoftheDebtGuide,thethirdreviewoftheFund'sdatastandardsinitiatives,theFund-sponsoredconferenceoncapitalflowanddebtstatistics,andtheFund-sponsoredregionalseminarsonexternaldebtstatistics.
ExternalDebtStatistics:GuideforCompilersandUsers(DebtGuide)TheconceptualframeworkusedintheDebtGuideisderivedfromtheSystemofNationalAccounts1993andthefiftheditionoftheIMF'sBalanceofPaymentsManualalsoissuedin1993.
Twodifferentpresentationalframeworksforthestockofexternaldebtaretobeprovided:onefocusesontheroleofthepublicsector,andtheotherisderivedfromtheInternationalInvestmentPosition(IIP)presentationinBPM5.
Eitherframeworkcanpresentexternaldebtdataonanominalormarketvaluebasis,butintheseconddraftoftheGuide,whichwasprovidedtoTFFSmembersfortheirmeetinginmid-October(seebelow),thepublic-sector-focuseddatawasspecifiedonanominalvaluebasis,andtheIIP-derivedframeworkonamarketvaluebasis.
TheDebtGuidewillgobeyond1993SNAandBPM5frameworksandalsospecifytheconceptualframeworkformeasuringotherexternaldebtdataseriesincluding:externaldebtdataonashort-termremainingmaturitybasis;adebtservicepaymentschedule;netexternaldebt;externaldebtbythecurrencyofdenomination,andbytheinterestcompositionfixedorvariable;securitiesissuedbythelocationofissuance;externaldebtbycreditorinstitutionalsector;andbytheultimateobligorratherthantheimmediateobligortypicallyreportedineconomicstatistics.
Dataonexternaldebtre-organizationsarealsotobespecified.
Inadditiontotheconceptualchapters,theDebtGuidewillprovideadviceoncompilingexternaldebtdataandexplaintheanalyticaluseofexternaldebtdata.
Thecompilationsectionwillincludeanoverviewchapter,andthenseparatechaptersdiscussingthecompilationofexternaldebtdataforthepublicsector,forbanksandforothersectors,andontradedsecurities.
Theanalyticalsectionnotonlyprovidesadviceontheuseofdata,butalsosetsoutthedataavailablefrominternationalagencies,andhowthesedataseriescomparewiththeIIPprinciples.
Also,theGuideincludesappendicesthatcovertherelationshipbetweentheIIP,thebalanceofpaymentstransactions,andthenationalaccounts,aswellasglossariesofexternaldebttermsandoffinancialinstruments.
Afirst,althoughincomplete,draftoftheDebtGuidewasmadeavailableinMarch2000tomembercountriesoftheIMFandotherinternationalagenciesinvolvedintheTFFS,andsofararound300copieshavebeendistributed.
AcopyisbeingsenttoCommitteemembers.
AseconddraftoftheGuidewasprovidedtoTFFSmembersinmid-SeptemberandistobediscussedattheTFFSmeetinginFrankfurt,onOctober11–13,2000.
Thisdraftcoveredalltheplannedchaptersandappendices,excludingthatondebtre--3-organization.
Theseconddraft,unlikethefirst,specifiesanominalvaluepresentationofexternaldebt,andallthecomplementarydataseries.
AnupdateoftheoutcomeofthismeetingwillbeprovidedtotheCommitteeatitsmeetingonOctober23–27,2000.
Lookingahead,theintentionisthatbytheendoftheyeartheFundwillcirculateforcommentthefulldraftoftheGuidetoallmembercountriesoftheinternationalorganizationsrepresentedontheTFFS.
Weanticipatethatmembercountrieswillbegivenaroundthreemonthsforcomment.
Dependingonthecommentsreceived,wemayholdameetingofexpertsbeforetheGuidewillbefinalized.
TheexpectationisthatthefinalGuidewillbeavailableinthesecondhalfof2001.
IMFExecutiveBoardReviewofDataStandardsOnMarch29,2000,theFund'sExecutiveBoardreviewedtheexperienceundertheFund'sdatastandardsinitiativesandtoconsiderproposalsforfurtherrefinementsoftheSDDSandtheGDDS.
DirectorsnotedthatsubscribershadmadesignificantprogressinmeetingtheSDDSrequirements.
Concerningexternaldebt,Directorsexpressedsatisfactionthatthestaffhadundertakenwide-rangingconsultationsontheprescriptionsregardingexternaldebtstatistics.
Directorsapprovedtheproposedthree-yeartransitionperiodforintroducingthenewSDDSexternaldebtdatacategory.
2Subscriberswillberequiredtodisseminatequarterlyexternaldebtdatawithaone-quarterlag,coveringfoursectorcategories(generalgovernment,monetaryauthorities,banks,andallother)andfurtherdisaggregatedbymaturity—shortandlong-term—onanoriginalmaturitybasisandbyinstrument,assetoutintheBPM5.
Directorsalsoagreedwiththeproposaltochangefromsixmonthstoninemonthstheprescribedtimelinessforthedisseminationoftheannualinternationalinvestmentposition,providedthatthesubscriberisdisseminatingquarterlyexternaldebtdatawithaone-quarterlag.
TheSDDSencouragesthedisseminationofsupplementaryinformationonprospectivedebtserviceobligations,inwhichtheprincipalandinterestcomponentsareseparatelyidentifiedtwiceyearlyforfourquartersandtwosemestersahead,withalagofonequarter.
Thedatashouldalsobebrokendownintosectors—generalgovernment,monetaryauthorities,thebankingsector,andothersectors.
Inaddition,SDDSencouragescountriestodisseminateadomestic-foreigncurrencybreakdownofexternaldebteachquarter,withinonequarterofthereferenceperiod.
BecauseoftherelativeimportanceofexternaldebtandthefactthatmostGDDSparticipantswerelikelytobenetdebtorcountrieswithmanagementsystemsthatwouldgeneratetherequiredinformationwithminimumefforts,DirectorsendorsedthestaffproposalstoincludeinthecoredatacategoryoftheGDDSpublicandpubliclyguaranteedexternaldebt,andtheassociateddebtserviceschedule.
FortheGDDS,recommendedbestpracticewouldbethatthestockdata,brokendownbymaturity,bedisseminatedwithquarterlyperiodicityandtimelinessofoneortwoquartersafterthereferenceperiod.
Inaddition,theassociateddebtserviceshouldbedisseminatedtwice2ThetransitionperiodwillendonMarch31,2003.
-4-yearly,withinthreetosixmonthsafterthereferenceperiod,andwithdataforfourquartersandtwosemestersahead.
Inmovingforward,manyDirectorsrecommendedaperiodwithnofurtherchangesinSDDSprescriptionssoastoallowforconsolidationoftheprogressachieved,andtoencourageconsensusbuildinginfavoroftheSDDSinitiative.
ConferenceonCapitalFlowandDebtStatisticsAninternationalconferenceentitled"ConferenceonCapitalFlowandDebtStatistics:CanWeGetBetterDataFaster"washostedbytheFundonFebruary23-24,2000incooperationwiththeFinancialStabilityForumWorkingGrouponCapitalFlows.
TheWorkingGrouphadearlierproposedsuchaconferenceasawaytogenerateadialoguebetweendatausersandcompilers,discussrecentinitiativestoimprovedataoncapitalflowanddebtstatistics,andidentifyprioritiesforfurtherworkinthisarea.
Thefocusoftheconferencewasonwhatactionsandresourceswouldberequiredtoprovidebetterandmoretimelydataoncapitalflowsanddebtandwhatshouldbegivenpriority.
Approximately120senior-leveldatausers,policymakers,anddatacompilersparticipatedintheconference.
Datausersanddatacompilersbroughtavarietyofperspectivestothediscussionoftheneedforcertaintypesofexternal-sectordata.
Policymakers,datausers,andafewcompilersstressedtheneedformorecomprehensiveandtimelycapitalflowandexternaldebtstatistics.
Datacompilersfromindustrialcountriesandoffshorecentersgenerallyviewedthedisseminationofsuchdataasalowerpriority.
Thisreflectednationalstatisticalprioritiesaswellasconcernsregardingresources,compilationdifficulties,andrespondentburden.
Manycompilersraisedtheissueofdataquality;withoutadditionalresources,therecouldbeincreaseduseofestimationandconsequentlyabreakdowninuserconfidenceinthedata.
Fortheirpart,datacompilerswarmlywelcomedtheopportunitytodiscussdataissueswithusers,notinghowrareaneventthiswasattheinternationallevel.
Mostcompilersfeltpressuredtoproducemoretimelyandcomprehensivedata,butmanylackedthenecessaryadditionalresourcestoundertakethiswork.
Itwasnotedthat,whilepolicymakersandusershaveoftencalledformoreresourcesforstatisticalworkatinternationalconferences,theseresourcesgenerallywerenotforthcominginthedomesticbudgetprocesses.
Onbalance,bothcompilersandusershadapositiveviewoftheusefulnessoftheSDDS.
However,theproposedstrengtheningoftheSDDSintheareaofexternaldebtdatahadraisedthequestionofwhethersomeSDDScategoriesmightbedesignedtoospecificallytoaddresstheproblemsofasubsetofcountries.
Therewaswidespreadsupportfrombothusersandcompilersforcontinuingtodevelopattheinternationallevelmethodologicalstatisticalframeworksthatcouldbeemployedbyalleconomies.
Thesestandardsallowedforcomparabilityofdataacrosscountriesand-5-consistencyofapproachbetweenrelateddataseries.
Althoughaconsensusbetweendatausersanddatacompilersontheprioritiesforproducingbetterdatahadnotemerged,therehadbeenaflowofideasthatwouldbeessentialinworkingtowardsachievingsuchaconsensus.
JointDebtStatisticsAlthoughtheJointBIS-IMF-OECD-WorldBankStatisticsonExternalDebt(JointDebtStatistics)areextensivelyused,therehavebeenmanyrequestsforthetablestobeextendedtoincludethedebtoftheindustrialcountries.
PresentlythetablescoveralldevelopingcountriesandalleconomiesintransitionasdefinedbytheOECD'sDevelopmentAssistanceCommittee.
ExpandingthecountrycoveragewasdiscussedattheJanuary2000meetingoftheTFFS,whichagreedtoexplorethisissue.
OneoptionwouldbetocompileindustrialcountrytablesusingtheexistingmethodologyoftheJointDebtStatistics.
Thus,allavailablecreditor-sourceandmarket-baseddataoftheparticipatingagencieswouldbeincluded.
Aswiththeexistingtables,therewouldbecoveragedeficiencies,althoughtheextraimpactofthesedeficiencies(e.
g.
,theomissionofdomestically-issuedsecuritiesandoftradecredit)onindustrial-countrydatawouldneedtobehighlighted.
Anotheroptionwouldbetorecognizethatthecoveragewouldbetoodeficienttopublishthedatafromthesesourcesandtolookinsteadtoalternativedebtor-sidesourcesofdata.
However,atthepresenttime,fewindustrialcountriesdisseminatequarterlyexternaldebtstatistics,exceptforafewseries.
OtherimprovementsunderconsiderationincludeincreasingthecoverageofmultilateralinstitutionsandgettingimprovedreportingfromoffshorefinancialcentersintheirsubmissionofinternationalbankingstatisticstotheBIS.
TechnicalAssistanceinExternalDebtStatisticsThefirstdraftoftheDebtGuidewasusedintwoone-weekregionalseminarsonexternaldebtstatistics.
Thefirst—forcountriesintheAsianregion—washeldinMarch2000attheIMF-SingaporeRegionalTrainingInstituteincollaborationwiththeAustralianBureauofStatisticsandtheSingaporeDepartmentofStatistics.
Thesecond—forEasternEuropeancountries—washeldinAugust-September2000attheJointViennaInstitute.
MostoftheparticipantsintheseseminarswerefromSDDS-subscribingcountries.
3Themainobjectivewastoinformdebtcompilersoftherecentdevelopmentsintheareaofexternaldebtstatistics,includingthenewSDDSandGDDSrequirements,andtodiscussmethodologicalandcoverageissues.
Justasimportantly,theseminarsdiscussedinstitutionalandotherissuesthatneedtobeaddressedinorderfortheneedsforexternaldebtstatisticsbothatthenationalandinternationallevel.
AprovisionalcourseofactionformeetingtherequirementswasmappedoutbytherepresentativesofeachcountryanditwasagreedthattheFundwouldwritetocountriesaboutninemonthslatertoreviewprogressandtoassesswhetherfurtherassistancewouldberequired.
Generally,thefirst3OtherTFFSparticipantsassistedtheFundinthepresentationofbothseminars.
UNCTADassistedinSingaporeandtheBIS,ECB,OECD,UNCTAD,andWorldBankassistedinVienna.
-6-draftoftheDebtGuidewaswellreceived.
ThenextseminarisplannedtobeinLatinAmericaintheearlymonthsof2001.
AnotherisscheduledtobeheldinAfricalaterinthatyear.
TheFundalsoprovidestechnicalassistanceinexternaldebtstatisticsthroughitsongoingprogramoftechnicalassistanceinbalanceofpaymentsstatisticstomembercountries.
MissionsforthethreemonthsNovember2000-January2001arelistedbelow.
IMFStatisticsDepartmentPlannedBalanceofPaymentsStatisticsMissionsNovember2000–January2001AreaDeptCountryMissionPurposeStartDateEndDateAFRLiberiaBalanceofPaymentsStatistics11/01/0012/12/00AFRMozambiqueBalanceofPaymentsStatistics01/15/0104/15/01AFRNigeriaBalanceofPaymentsStatistics11/01/0011/14/00APDIndonesiaBalanceofPaymentsStatistics9/22/0011/17/00APDPhilippinesBalanceofPaymentsStatistics10/02/0010/27/00EU1BulgariaBalanceofPaymentsStatistics11/6/0011/17/00EU1BulgariaBalanceofPaymentsStatistics02/12/0102/23/01EU2BelarusBalanceofPaymentsStatistics11/01/0011/14/00MEDWestBank&GazaStripBalanceofPaymentsStatistics09/25/0001/06/01