variancesesehu.com

1of4ChuaPiangSze(65)6398-7956piangsze@dbsvickers.
com5May2002CompanyFocusSingaporeEquityResearchSINGAPOREwww.
dbsvickers.
comQianHuImpressive1Q02profitgrowthWeareinitiatingcoverageonQianHuwithaNeutralratingduetorichvaluations.
QianHuisanunder-researchedintegratedserviceproviderinthetropicalornamentalfishindustry.
Itisanattractivesmallcapplaygiventhehighcorporatetransparencyandstrongearninggrowthfromoverseasoperations.
Notwithstandingthestrongfundamentals,QianHu'srecentsharepricerally(upalmost100%inthelastthreedays)putsthestockclosetoourtargetpriceofS$0.
90.
Notalivestockcompany.
ContrarytomarketperceptionthatQianHuisatropicalfishbreeder,QianHu'smainrevenuedriversarethedistributionofornamentalfishesandpetaccessoriesproducts.
TherearethreemainbusinessesinQianHu-distributionofornamentalfish,distributionandmanufacturingofpetaccessoriesandmanufacturingofplasticbags.
QianHu'splasticmanufacturingbusinesscomplementsthefishdistributionbusiness.
FY02netprofitisexpectedtorise45%ledbymarginimprovement.
NetprofitinFY02isexpectedtogrowby45%toS$5m,ledbyawideninginprofitmarginforthedistributionofhighervalueaddedfish(DragonandLoach)andthemanufacturingofin-housebrandsofpetaccessoriesinChina.
Inaddition,thereisanabsenceofrestructuringandstartupcostsinThailandandChinaincurredin2001.
ForecastsandValuationGeneralDataIssuedCapital(mshrs)100MktCap(S$m/US$m)87/48MajorShareholdersQianHuHoldings(%)31.
4Yapfamilymembers(%)43.
6FreeFloat(%)25.
0AvgDailyVol('000shrs)1,768FYDec(S$m)2001A2002F2003F2004FTurnover41566877EBITDA5.
68.
110.
112.
0PretaxProfit4.
36.
58.
410.
1NetProfit3.
45.
06.
47.
7EPS(Scts)4.
25.
16.
47.
7EPSGth8.
9%23.
0%24.
4%20.
2%P/ERatio(x)20.
816.
913.
611.
3P/BRatio(x)4.
23.
32.
72.
2DivYield0.
6%0.
7%0.
9%1.
1%ROA13.
6%15.
1%15.
2%15.
4%ROE22.
4%22.
9%21.
9%21.
6%NetGearing(%)cash2%cashcashNTA(Scts)20.
826.
231.
938.
8SharePriceChartSharePricePerformanceShareRelRelPriceSTISectorPast1mth175%178%176%Past3mths188%191%185%Past6mths273%243%252%Past12mths217%217%193%AtaGlancePriceTarget:1-yearS$0.
90StockCode:Bloomberg:QIANSPReuters:QIAN.
SISector:ConsumerSTI:1,740.
35StockRating:HHHIISectorRating:HHHHITechnicalRating:HHHIIReasonforReport:InitiatingcoverageImplications:PositiveConsensusEPS:FY023.
2SctsDBSVvsConsensusEPS(%variance):FY02+59.
4%NEUTRALInitiatingcoverageS$0.
870.
000.
100.
200.
300.
400.
500.
600.
700.
800.
901.
00May-01Jul-01Aug-01Oct-01Dec-01Jan-02Mar-02Apr-02S$QianHu100-DayMA2of4QianHuCompanyFocusHighlightsStrong1Qearningsgrowthof73%.
Netprofitjumpedto$1mduetostrongsalesgrowthandmarginenhancement,astherewerenomorerestructuringcostfortheThaiandMalaysiasubsidiaries.
Earningscontributionfromaccessories(duetotheChinaplant)andsaleofornamentalfisheslargelydrovesalesgrowth.
Salesofornamentalfishesgrewatarobust26%duetoincreasesalesinSingapore(asaresultofLuoHanfishandtheopeningofmoreornamentalfishdistributionshops),andhighersaletoTaiwan(followingthederegulationoftheimportofDragonFish)andincreaseearningscontributionfromtheThaiandMalaysiansubsidiaries.
SegmentalsearningsFY:Dec(S$m)1Q011Q02SalesOrnamentalfish4.
45.
5Accessories3.
75.
5Plastic&other1.
41.
5Totalsales9.
412.
5OperatingprofitOrnamentalfish0.
50.
7Accessories0.
41.
0Plastic&other0.
10.
1Unallocatedexpenses(0.
2)(0.
3)Totaloperatingprofit0.
81.
4MarginsOrnamentalfish10.
9%12.
8%Accessories9.
6%18.
2%Plastic&other7.
8%3.
7%Totalopgprofit8.
2%11.
3%Source:CompanyNotalivestockcompany.
ContrarytomarketperceptionthatQianHuisatropicalfishbreeder,QianHu'smainrevenuedriversarethedistributionofornamentalfishesandpetaccessoriesproducts.
TherearethreemainbusinessesinQianHu-distributionofornamentalfish,distributionandmanufacturingofpetaccessoriesandmanufacturingofplasticbags.
QianHu'splasticmanufacturingbusinesscomplementsthefishdistributionbusiness.
Anintegratedserviceproviderintheornamentalfishindustry.
QianHuisaone-stopserviceproviderinthesourcingofornamentalfishesfortheinternationalanddomesticfishbuyers.
Apartfromsourcingthevariety,QianHu'svalueaddliesinitsabilityinensuringthequalityandsturdiness(lowmortalityafterlongflights)ofthefishesviaitsstrictselection,conditioningandpackagingprocess.
Inparticular,QianHuhasmanagedtoachievea97%survivalrateofallfishesbeingexportedduetotheirqualitypackagingprocess.
Movingfromdistributingtomanufacturingofpetaccessories.
QianHu'spreviousbusinessmodelwastodistributethirdpartyandtheirownbrandofaccessories(underthe"OceanFree"and"AoShen"brands).
Theydevelopedtheirownbrandofproductsbyoutsourcingthemanufacturingprocessestosub-contractorsinChina.
In2001,QianHuacquiredWanJianginChinatomanufactureQianHu'sandthirdpartybrandofpetaccessories.
StableprofitinFY01despiteweakeconomicconditions.
Inspiteoftheweakeconomicconditions,netprofitroseamarginal3%inFY01duetoincreasedturnover.
Infact,netprofitwouldhavebeenhigherifnotforaninitialstartupcostincurredfortheThaiandChinasubsidiaries.
Sincethen,thesesubsidiarieshaveachievedprofitability.
3of4QianHuCompanyFocusProspectsHighersalesduetotheopeningofnewmarketsanddistributioncenters.
Salesareexpectedtogrow37%ledbyincreaserevenuefrombothdomesticandoverseasmarketsledbytheopeningofmorefishretailshopsandnewdistributionoutletsinThailandandMalaysia.
RevenuefromthedistributionofArowanafishisexpectedtoimproveonthebackofimportderegulationmovesinTaiwan.
Inaddition,therewouldbeincreaserevenuecomingfromthenewaccessoriesmanufacturingplantinChina.
FY02netprofitisexpectedtorise45%ledbymarginimprovement.
Netprofitisexpectedtoriseastronger45%,toS$5m,ledbyawideninginprofitmarginforthedistributionofhighervalueaddedfish(DragonandLoach)andthemanufacturingofin-housebrandsofpetaccessoriesinChina.
Inaddition,thereisanabsenceofrestructuringandstartupcostsinThailandandChinaincurredin2001.
ActionWeareinitiatingcoverageonQianHuwithaNeutralratingduetorichvaluations.
QianHuisanunder-researchedintegratedserviceproviderinthetropicalornamentalfishindustry.
Itisanattractivesmallcapplaygiventhehighcorporatetransparencyandstrongearninggrowthfromoverseasoperations.
Notwithstandingthestrongfundamentals,therecentrallyinshareprice(upalmost100%inthelastthreedays)putsthestockclosetoourtargetpriceofS$0.
90.
PeercomparisonShareMktCapEPSPE(x)EV/EBITDAOpgEBITDAP/SalesP/BVprice(S$)(S$m)0101(x)marginmargin(x)(x)OSIMSPOSIMIntl0.
801850.
0613.
812.
59.
0%11.
0%1.
44.
4AUSSPAussino.
com0.
46870.
0314.
210.
018.
9%20.
4%2.
33.
8TTISPTTIntl0.
451350.
0315.
010.
74.
5%5.
4%0.
31.
7XLHMKXianLeng1.
26610.
1111.
910.
150.
8%50.
8%5.
01.
7LACLNLawrencePLC10.
98940.
6716.
39.
613.
9%14.
8%1.
33.
3QIANSPQianHu0.
87870.
0420.
815.
210.
5%13.
7%2.
13.
3Fisheriesandwholesaleindustryaverage64915.
511.
17.
8%9.
0%0.
82.
8IncomeStatementSegmentalSource:Company,DBSVickersFY:Dec(S$m)200020012002F2003F2004FSales33.
941.
256.
367.
677.
1EBITDA5.
25.
68.
110.
112.
0OperatingProfit4.
34.
36.
68.
510.
2Assosciates0.
00.
00.
00.
00.
0Intr/InvsmtInc-0.
2-0.
1-0.
1-0.
1-0.
1PftBeforeTax4.
14.
36.
58.
410.
1Tax-1.
0-0.
9-1.
6-2.
1-2.
5MI0.
00.
00.
00.
00.
0Netprofit3.
23.
45.
06.
47.
7Depn/Amortn0.
91.
31.
51.
61.
8CashFlow4.
14.
86.
58.
09.
5X-ordItems2.
00.
00.
00.
00.
0Growthrates:SalesGrowth28.
2%21.
7%36.
6%20.
0%14.
0%OpgProfit119.
6%0.
7%52.
7%28.
3%20.
2%PBT130.
1%2.
9%53.
6%28.
6%20.
4%PAT141.
2%8.
9%44.
8%28.
3%20.
2%FY:Dec(S$m)200020012002F2003F2004FSalesOrnamentalfish16.
518.
324.
727.
730.
5Accessories12.
016.
625.
331.
638.
0Plastic&other5.
46.
36.
48.
38.
6Totalsales33.
941.
256.
367.
677.
1OperatingprofitOrnamentalfish2.
12.
13.
23.
64.
0Accessories2.
12.
64.
65.
76.
8Plastic&other0.
40.
40.
30.
50.
7Inallocatedexp-0.
4-0.
8-1.
4-1.
4-1.
4Totalopgprofit4.
24.
36.
68.
510.
2MarginOrnamentalfish12.
7%11.
4%12.
8%13.
0%13.
2%Accessories17.
2%15.
7%18.
0%18.
0%18.
0%Plastic&other8.
1%6.
5%4.
0%6.
5%8.
0%Totalopgprofit12.
5%10.
4%11.
7%12.
5%13.
2%4of4QianHuCompanyFocusDBSVickersResearchStarRatingSystemHHHHH-StrongBuy(>20%relativetomarketoverthenext12months)HHHHI-Outperform(>10%relativetomarketoverthenext12months)HHHII-Neutral(performinlinewithmarket+/-10%overthenext12months)HHIII-Underperform(<10%relativetomarketoverthenext12months)HIIII-Sell(<20%relativetomarketoverthenext12months)ThisdocumentispublishedbyDBSVickersResearch(Singapore)PteLtd(DBSVR),adirectwholly-ownedsubsidiaryofDBSVickersSecurities(Singapore)PteLtdandanindirectwholly-ownedsubsidiaryofDBSVickersSecuritiesHoldingsPteLtd.
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