marketusairways

FAAAerospaceForecastFiscalYears2010–203028FAAAEROSPACEFORECASTFISCALYEARS2010–2030Developingforecastsofaviationdemandandactivitylevelscontinuestobechallengingastheaviationindustryevolvesandpriorrelationshipschange.
Intimesofamplifiedvolatility,theprocessisfilledwithuncertainty,particularlyintheshort-term.
EventhoughthehighlycyclicalU.
S.
aviationindustrywentintoadownwardspiralduring2009,historyhasshownthedemandforairtravelisresilientandgrowthwillreturn.
Withthestartof2010,thelingeringquestionsare1)howmucheconomicrecoverywillberequiredtojumpstarttheindustrybacktoaperiodofgrowth,and2)whenwilltherecoveryoccurBytheendofFY2009,carriershadexecuted13consecutivemonthsofyearoveryearreductionsindomesticcapacity.
Thecapacitycutbackswerenecessarytocontrolcostsinthefaceofplummetingdemandforairtravel.
Astherecessiondeepenedcarriersinstitutedfaresalestominimizefinanciallosses.
Thesefaresalesledtorecordhighloadfactorsandrecorddeclinesinyield.
Thecapacitycutsthatpersistedthrough2009areexpectedtoleveloffduring2010,withyieldsexpectedtoturnpositivebyyearend.
Giventhecurrentinstabilityintheglobaleconomy,thereismuchuncertaintyastothetimingandstrengthofarecoveryinaviationdemand.
Nevertheless,theFAAhasdevelopedasetofassumptionsandforecastsconsistentwiththeemergingtrendsandstructuralchangescurrentlytakingplacewithintheaviationindustry.
TheFAAisconfidentthattheseforecastsaccuratelypredictfutureaviationdemand,howeverduetothelargeuncertaintyoftheoperatingenvironmentthevariancearoundtheforecastsiswiderthaninprioryears.
Thecommercialaviationforecastsandassumptionsaredevelopedfromeconometricmodelsthatexplainandincorporateemergingtrendsforthedifferentsegmentsoftheindustry.
Inadditionthecommercialaviationforecastsareconsideredunconstrainedinthattheyassumetherewillbesufficientinfrastructuretohandletheprojectedlevelsofactivity.
Theseforecastsdonotassumefurthercontractionsoftheindustrythroughbankruptcy,consolidation,orliquidation.
Thecommercialaviationforecastmethodologyisablendedone.
Thestartingpointfordevelopingthecommercialaviationforecasts(aircarriersandregionals)isthefutureschedulespublishedintheOfficialAirlineGuide(OAG).
Togeneratetheshort-termforecast(twoyearsout)currentmonthlytrendsareusedinconjunctionwithpublishedmonthlyschedulestoallowFAAforecasterstodevelopmonthlycapacityanddemandforecastsforbothmainlineandregionalcarriersforfiscalandcalendaryears2010-2011.
Themediumtolong-termforecasts(2012-2030)arebasedonresultsofeconometricmodels.
Thegeneralaviationforecastsrelyheavilyondiscussionswithindustryexpertsandtheresultsofthe2008GeneralAviationandPart135ActivitySurvey.
TheassumptionshavebeenupdatedbyFAAanalyststoreflectmorerecentdataanddevelopingtrends,aswellasfurtherinformationfromindustryexperts.
TheFAAalsopresentstheforecastsandassumptionstoindustrystaffandaviationassociations,whoareaskedtocommentonthereasonablenessoftheassumptionsandforecasts.
Theircommentsand/orsuggestionshavebeenincorporatedintotheforecastsasappropriate.
29FAAAerospaceForecastFiscalYears2010–2030EconomicForecastsForthisyear'sAerospaceForecast,theFAAisusingeconomicforecastsdevelopedbyGlobalInsight,Inc.
toprojectdomesticaviationdemand.
Furthermore,theFAAusesworldandindividualcountryeconomicprojectionsprovidedbyGlobalInsight,Inc.
toforecastthedemandforinternationalaviationservices.
AnnualhistoricaldataandeconomicforecastsarepresentedintabularforminTables1through4.
U.
S.
economicforecastsarepresentedonaU.
S.
governmentfiscalyear(OctoberthroughSeptember)basis.
Internationalforecastsarepresentedonacalendaryearbasis.
DatasuggestthatthebottomoftherecessionwasinJune,2009,andGlobalInsightexpectsthepaceoftherecoverytobeslowandnotstrongenoughtohaltthedeclineinjobsuntillaterin2010.
TherecoveryisnotV-shaped,butinsteadismoreW-shaped.
Itisn'tuntil2011thateconomicgrowthmovesabove3%onasustainedbasis.
Thereareanumberofkeyissuessurroundingtheeconomythatremainaconcernandhowtheseareresolvedwilldeterminethefuturepathoftherecovery.
Amongtheseissuesarethesizeofthefederaldeficitandtaxes,whenwilltheFederalReservebegintoraiseinterestrates,whenwillhousingpricesbegintorecover,andhowlongwillhouseholdscontinuetoreinintheirspending.
TheforecastassumesthattherewillbenoadditionalfiscalstimulusandthattheFederalReservewillcontinuetokeepinterestratesatornearzeroformostof2010.
TheforecastalsoassumesthattheFedwillbeabletosuccessfullytightenmonetarypolicywithoutsendingtheeconomybackintorecessionandthattaxratesonbothpersonalincomeandforcorporationswillgraduallyincreasefromcurrentlevels.
GlobalInsight'seconomicforecasthastheendoftheU.
S.
recessioninthe3QofFY2009.
Therecoverythatfollowsisarelativelyweakrecoveryascreditremainstightandconsumerspendingissluggish.
Onaquarter-by-quarterbasisforthenexttwoyearsU.
S.
economicgrowthisprojectedtorangefromalowof1.
8percentin2QFY2010toahighof3.
7percentin4QFY2011.
U.
S.
GROSSDOMESTICPRODUCTSEASONALLYADJUSTEDANNUALGROWTHFY2010AND2011BYQUARTER1.
82.
22.
72.
62.
83.
63.
71.
80.
00.
51.
01.
52.
02.
53.
03.
54.
02009-042010-012010-022010-032010-042011-012011-022011-03FiscalYear2010FiscalYear2011ANNUALPERCENTGROWTHFAAAerospaceForecastFiscalYears2010–203030ConsumerspendingisbyfarthelargestcomponentoftheU.
S.
economyandoneofthefeaturesofthisrecessionhasbeenthedeclineinconsumerspending.
Burdenedbyhighdebtandrisingunemployment,consumerspendingfellin2009.
Therecoveryinconsumerspendingisprojectedtobetheweakestofthepostwarera,ashouseholdsstruggletoreducedebtburdensandrebuildretirementassets.
Inthemediumterm,between2011and2015,U.
S.
economicgrowthisprojectedtoaverage3.
0percentperyearwithratesrangingbetween2.
6and3.
6percent.
Consumptiongrowthremainsmutedashouseholdscontinuetorebuildtheirbalancesheetsandtaxesareincreased.
Beyond2015U.
S.
realGDPgrowthslowstoaround2.
6percentannuallyforthebalanceoftheforecastperiod.
Thelong-termstabilityoftheU.
S.
economicgrowthisdependentoncontinuedgrowthintheworkforce,thecapitalstock,andimprovedproductivity.
Giventheunprecedentedamountofbothfiscalandmonetarysupporttotheeconomy,amajorrisktocontinuedU.
S.
economicgrowthisinflation.
Theseinflationarypressures,ifunchecked,couldforceupinflationandbondyieldsandlessendomesticdemand.
GlobalInsightprojectsthepriceofoil,asmeasuredbyRefiners'AcquisitionCost,toincreaseby14.
2percentafterdecliningby46.
6percentin2009.
Oilpricesareprojectedtoincreasesteadilytojustover$90perbarrelby2016andthenincreaseslightlylessthaninflationforthebalanceoftheforecastperiod,reaching$104.
45perbarrelby2030.
U.
S.
GROSSDOMESTICPRODUCT2009-20303.
6(2.
9)2.
62.
63.
22.
61.
52.
6-4.
0-3.
0-2.
0-1.
00.
01.
02.
03.
04.
020092010201120122013201420152015-30ANNUALPERCENTGROWTH31FAAAerospaceForecastFiscalYears2010–2030Afterfalling0.
3percentinFY2009,theinflationrate(asmeasuredbytheCPI)isexpectedtorise1.
4percentin2010and1.
9percentin2011astheeconomyrecoversandgrowthaccelerates.
After2012consumerpriceinflationisprojectedtoremaininanarrowrangebetween1.
7and2.
0percentpercentayearforthebalanceoftheforecast.
Toreflecttheuncertaintyintheprojectionofeconomicgrowth,theFAAAerospaceForecastuseshighandloweconomicgrowthcasesalongwiththebaseforecast.
ThehighandloweconomicgrowthcasesarebasedonGlobalInsight'sSeptember2009longrangeoptimisticandpessimisticforecasts.
Thehigheconomicgrowthcaseincorporateshigherpopulationgrowth,capitalspending,andproductivityrelativetothebasecase.
Duetothehigherproductivity,inflationislowerthaninthebasecase.
RealGDPgrowthinthehighcaseaverages3.
2percentannuallycomparedtorealGDPgrowthof2.
6percentannuallythatiscontainedinthebasecase.
Theloweconomicgrowthcaseincorporateslowerpopulationgrowth,capitalspending,andlowerproductivitythanthebasecase.
Incontrast,intheloweconomiccase,inflationishigherthaninthebasecaseduetolowerproductivitygrowth.
RealGDPgrowthinthelowcaseaverages1.
7percentannuallyovertheforecasthorizon.
FurtherdetailsaboutthehighandlowscenarioscanbefoundinAppendixA.
WorldEconomyWorldwideeconomicactivityisestimatedbyGlobalInsighttohavedeclinedby2.
4percentin2009,markingthefirstcontractioninglobalGDPsincetheGreatDepression.
Theadvancedeconomies(U.
S.
,Canada,Europe,andJapan)posteddeclinesinoutputrangingfrom-1.
5percentto-2.
9percent.
Theemergingmarketeconomiesgrew0.
8percent,4.
8pointsbelowwhattheygrewin2008.
ManyemergingmarketeconomiesposteddeclinesinrealGDPincludingMexico,Taiwan,Russia,Turkey,andUkraine.
In2010,globaleconomicgrowthisprojectedtoresume(2.
5percent)asstimulusplansintheU.
S.
andinChinaprovidethebasisforrecovery.
RecoveryinEuropeisprojectedtobemoregradualthanintheU.
S.
asthehousingmarketcorrectionshavecomelaterandpolicyactionsaremorecautious.
Beyond2010throughthebalanceoftheforecastperiod,worldrealGDPisprojectedtoincreaseanaverageof3.
2percentperyear.
REFINERS'ACQUISITIONCOSTPERCENTCHANGEFISCALYEARS2009-2030(46.
6)2.
714.
2-50.
0-40.
0-30.
0-20.
0-10.
00.
010.
020.
0200920102010-30ANNUALPERCENTGROWTHFAAAerospaceForecastFiscalYears2010–203032TheAsia/PacificandLatinAmericaregionswillcontinuetohavetheworld'shighesteconomicgrowthrates.
Theseregionsareexpectedtoseetheireconomicactivitygrowatannualratesof4.
6and3.
7percentayear,respectively,overtheforecastperiod.
InAsia,China,withapopulationof1.
3billion,isforecasttogrow7.
4percentayear,becomingtheworld'ssecondlargesteconomy.
India,withapopulationof1.
2billion,isprojectedtoseeitsGDPtripleinsize,growingatanaveragerateof6.
2percentayearduringtheforecastperiod.
Incontrast,Japan(currentlytheworld'ssecondlargesteconomy)growsatjust0.
9percentayearovertheforecastperiodasstructuralimpedimentsandanagingpopulationlimitgrowth.
CanadianandEuropeanGDPgrowthisanticipatedtoriseatmoremoderateratesof2.
4and1.
7percentayear,respectively,overtheforecastperiod.
AviationTrafficandActivityForecastsTotaltrafficandactivityforecastsforcommercialaircarriers(thesumofmainlineandregionalcarriers)arecontainedinTables5through9.
Thesetablescontainyear-to-yearhistoricaldataandforecasts.
MainlineaircarriertrafficandactivityforecastsandtheforecastassumptionsarecontainedinTables10through18,20,and22.
Thesetablescontainyear-to-yearhistoricaldataandforecasts.
RegionalcarrierforecastsandassumptionsarefoundinTables23through26.
Thesetablesprovideyear-to-yearhistoricalandforecastdata.
Table19providesyear-to-yearhistoricalandforecastdataforcargoactivity.
Table21providesyear-to-yearhistoricalandforecastdataforthecargojetfleet.
GeneralaviationforecastsarefoundinTables27through30.
Thesetablesprovideyear-to-yearhistoricaldataandforecasts.
Tables31through33provideforecastsofaircraftactivityatFAAandcontractfacilities.
GROSSDOMESTICPRODUCTBYWORLDREGIONCALENDARYEARS2009-2030(3.
4)2.
31.
23.
2(3.
0)3.
74.
64.
6(0.
1)2.
42.
0(2.
6)3.
22.
4(2.
4)-4.
0-2.
00.
02.
04.
06.
0200920102010-30EuropeLatinAmericaPacificCanadaWorldANNUALPERCENTGROWTH33FAAAerospaceForecastFiscalYears2010–2030CommercialAviationForecastsSystemcapacityisprojectedtoshrink1.
6percentin2010.
Inthedomesticmarket,mainlinecarriercapacityisforecasttoshrinkforthethirdconsecutiveyear(down1.
6percent)whilecapacityfortheregionalcarriersgrowsfrom2009levels(up1.
9percent).
Intheinternationalsector,capacityisforecasttofallintheAtlanticandPacificmarketasgrowthreturnstotheLatinmarket.
Mainlinecarriersystemcapacitydrops2.
0percent,whileregionalcarriercapacitygrows2.
0percent.
Passengerdemandshowsslightgrowthin2010withsystemRPMsforecasttogrow0.
3percent(flatformainlinecarriersandup4percentforregionalcarriers)aspassengerenplanementsincrease0.
5percent(down0.
7percentformainlinecarriersandup4.
6percentforregionalcarriers).
Growthisprojectedtoacceleratein2011withsystemRPMsandpassengersincreasing2.
6and2.
1percent,respectively,onacapacityincreaseof2.
5percent.
Fortheoverallforecastperiod,systemcapacityisprojectedtoincreaseanaverageof3.
4percentayear.
SupportedbyagrowingU.
S.
economyandfallingrealyields,systemRPMsareprojectedtoincrease3.
5percentayear,withregionalcarriers(4.
2percentayear)growingfasterthanmainlinecarriers(3.
4percentayear).
Systempassengersareprojectedtoincreaseanaverageof2.
6percentayear,withregionalcarriersgrowingfasterthanmainlinecarriers(3.
0versus2.
5percentayear).
By2030,U.
S.
commercialaircarriersareprojectedtofly1.
9trillionASMsandtransport1.
2billionenplanedpassengersatotalof1.
6trillionpassengermiles.
Planeswillremaincrowded,withloadfactorprojectedtogrowmoderatelyduringtheearlyyearsoftheforecastperiodandthentaperingduringthemidtolatteryears,growingby2.
7pointsovertheforecastperiodto82.
4percentin2030.
Passengertriplengthisalsoforecasttoincreasebymorethan221milesovertheforecastto1,314.
5miles(up10.
5milesannually).
Thegrowthinpassengertriplengthreflectsthefastergrowthintherelativelylongerinternationalanddomestictripsascomparedtoshorter-haulflights.
U.
S.
COMMERCIALAIRCARRIERSSYSTEMENPLANEMENTSFISCALYEARS2009-203002505007501,0001,25020092012201520182021202420272030MAINLINEREGIONALSMILLIONSofPASSENGERSFAAAerospaceForecastFiscalYears2010–203034DomesticMarketsAfteradramaticdeclineduringFY2009,domesticcapacityinFY2010isprojectedtofallslightly,down1.
1percent.
Followingarecordreductionof9.
5percentin2009,mainlinecarriercapacitydrops1.
6percentasthesecarriersshowreluctancetoincreasecapacityinacontinuingenvironmentofuncertainty.
RegionalcarriersareslatedtogrowinFY2010,up1.
9percent,afterpostingtheirfirstdeclineincapacitysincederegulationduringFY2009.
Domesticcommercialcarriercapacityrecoversmodestlyin2011(up1.
6percent)withmainlinecarriersgrowingslowerthanregionalcarriers,1.
4percentversus2.
6percent,respectively,andthenincreasesatanaverageannualrateof3.
2percentforthebalanceoftheforecast(2011-2030).
Fortheentireforecastperiod(2009–2030),domesticcapacityisprojectedtoincreaseatanaverageannualrateof2.
9percent,justslightlyfasterthaneconomicgrowth,withmainlinecarriersgrowingslower(2.
7percentperyear)thantheregionalcarriers(4.
0percentperyear).
TheslowpaceoftheeconomicrecoveryintheU.
S.
inhibitsRPMgrowthduringthefirstyearoftheforecast(up0.
4percent),withtrafficprojectedtogrowfasterinthesecondhalfoftheyear.
MainlinecarrierRPMsareprojectedtocontract0.
2percentduring2010,whileregionalcarrierRPMsgrow3.
9percent.
By2011,trafficgrowthimproveswithRPMsincreasing1.
8percentasconsumerconfidenceimprovesandcorporatetravelbudgetsincrease.
Drivenbycontinuedeconomicgrowthandfallingrealyields,domesticRPMgrowthfortheremainderoftheforecast(2011-2030),averages3.
3percentperyear.
Fortheoverallforecastperiod(2009-2030)domesticRPMsareprojectedtogrowanaverageof3.
1percentayear.
Mainlinecarriersareprojectedtogrowmoreslowlythantheregionalcarriersthroughouttheforecastperiod(averaging2.
9versus4.
2percentayear,respectively).
Enplanementsareforecasttogrow0.
4percentin2010,followinga7.
3percentdeclinein2009.
SimilartoRPMs,passengervolumeisexpectedtopickupin2011withthestrengtheningeconomy(up1.
8percent),andthengrowatanaveragerateof2.
6percentperyearfortheperiod2011-2030.
Overtheentireforecastperiod,domesticenplanementsareprojectedtogrowatanaverageannualrateof2.
4percentwithmainlinecarriersgrowingmoreslowlythanregionalcarriers(2.
2versus3.
0percentayear,respectively).
U.
S.
COMMERCIALAIRCARRIERSDOMESTICASMS2009-2030(9.
5)3.
0(1.
6)1.
94.
1(5.
1)-12.
0-8.
0-4.
00.
04.
08.
0200920102010-30MainlineRegionalsAnnualPercentGrowth35FAAAerospaceForecastFiscalYears2010–2030Inspiteofrecordcapacitycutbackstriggeredbyasteepdropindemand,carrierslostpricingpowerduring2009,withnominalyieldfalling8.
9percent(down8.
6percentinrealterms).
Despitecontinuedcapacityreductions,lacklusterdemandwillkeepfaresincheckin2010,resultinginamodestincreaseinnominalyieldof3.
9percent(2.
5percentinrealterms).
Fortheentireforecastperiod,increasesinnominalyieldsareprojectedtogrowatarateof1.
1percentayear,whileinrealtermstheyareprojectedtodeclineanaverageof0.
8percentayear.
Thedeclineinrealyieldsovertheforecastperiodassumescompetitionbetweencarriersandconvergenceofcoststructuresbetweennetworkcarriersandtheirlow-costcounterparts.
Theconvergencearisesfromgainsinproductivityasnetworkcarriersretirefuelinefficientaircraftandholdthelineonlaborcostswhilelow-costcarrierscontendwithagingfleets,maturingworkforces,andunionization.
Domesticcommercialcarrieractivity(departures)atFAAairtrafficfacilitiesisprojectedtogrowmoreslowlythanpassengertrafficovertheforecastperiod(1.
9percentperyearfordeparturesversus3.
1percentforRPMs).
Thisreflectsincreasedcarrierefficienciesinthreeoperationalmeasures—aircraftsize,loadfactor,andtriplength.
Domesticaircraftsize8increasedin2009by1.
3seatsto121.
9seats.
Theincreasewaspartlydrivenbyalargeincreaseinaircraftsizebytheregionalcarriers(up2.
2seats)andthegroundingofolder,fuelinefficientaircraft(i.
e.
MD-80'sand737-300/400/500)bythemainlinecarriers(up1.
4seats).
Theincreaseinregionalaircraftsizewascausedbytheretirementof50-seatjetaircraftaslarger70-90seatjetaircraftenteredthefleet.
Domesticseatsperaircraftfallsin2010(down0.
3seats)asmainlinecarrierscontinuetocutcapacitywhiletheirregionalcounterpartsgrow.
Overthecourseoftheforecast,domesticseatsperaircraftareprojectedtograduallyincreaseto123.
6seatsby2030,anaverageof0.
1seatsperyear.
TheFAA'sprojectionofdomesticcarrieraverageaircraftsizeisgreatlyinfluencedbycarrierfleetplans,publiclyknownaircraftorderbooksandFAA'sexpectationsofthechangingdomesticcompetitivelandscape.
Inthenear-term(through2011),theforecastincorporatesseveralcarrierassumptions:1)mainlinecarriersdesiretoconstrainASMcapacitygrowth;2)networkcarrier"ownmetal"serviceonlonger-haulroutes;3)theretirementofolderinefficientaircraft(manyofwhicharenarrow-body);U.
S.
COMMERCIALAIRCARRIERSDOMESTICRPMS2009-2030(8.
2)3.
1(0.
2)3.
94.
2(4.
3)-12.
0-8.
0-4.
00.
04.
08.
0200920102010-30MainlineRegionalsAnnualPercentGrowth8DefinedasseatspermileflownandcomputedbydividingASMsbymilesflown.
FAAAerospaceForecastFiscalYears2010–2030364)theshiftingofwide-bodyandlargernarrow-bodyaircrafttointernationalservices,and5)growinguseof70-90seatregionaljetaircraft.
Inthelonger-term,networkcarrierswillreplacetheirwide-bodyandlargernarrow-bodyaircraftintheirdomesticroutenetworkswithsmaller,nextgeneration,narrow-bodyaircraft.
Inaddition,somecarriers,suchasJetBlueandUSAirways,areturningtosmalleraircraft,likethe100-seatEmbraer190,tosupplementtheirroutestructure.
Theuseofsmallernarrow-bodyaircraftallowsmainlinecarrierstobetterservetheircustomersbyboostingfrequency,aswellasimproveprofitabilitybymorecloselymatchingsupply(thenumberofseats)withdemand(thenumberofpassengers).
Mainlinecarrierdomesticaircraftsizeincreasedin2009by1.
4seatsto151.
4seats,butisprojectedtofall0.
8seatsin2010.
Domesticaircraftsizeformainlinecarriersisprojectedtofallto150.
4seatsin2011andthengraduallyincreasethereafterforthebalanceoftheforecast.
Overall,averageaircraftsizeforthemainlinegroupwillincreasebyonly0.
5seatsbetween2009and2030,goingfrom151.
4to151.
9.
Regionalcarrieraircraftsizeflowndomesticallyisprojectedtogrowatamuchfasterpacethantheirmainlinecounterparts.
Thefastergrowthinregionalaircraftsizeisstimulatedbythewaveof70-90seatregionaljetaircraftthatareenteringthefleetaswellasreductionsinthe50seatandunderjetfleet.
Regionalcarriersarebetterequippedtosupportoperationsoftheirmainlinepartnersbyprovidingcapacitythatcomplementsmarketdemand.
Thegreaternumberofthelarger70-and90-seatregionaljetsinthefleetcoupledwithsignificant50-seatjetretirementsoverthenextfewyearsincreasestheaverageseatingcapacityoftheregionalfleetfrom55.
0seatsin2009to56.
8seatsby2011.
Overthecourseoftheforecast,averageseatsperaircraftfortheregionalcarriersincreasesby0.
5seatsperyearto65.
4seatsin2030.
Thechangingaircraftfleetmixisnarrowingthegapbetweenthesizeandaircrafttypesoperatedbythemainlineandregionalcarriers.
Commercialcarrierdomesticloadfactorincreased1.
1pointsduringFY2009toanall-timehighof80.
4percent.
Pushingloadfactorstorecordlevelswasthemainlinecarriergroupwhichpostedaloadfactorof81.
3percent.
Loadfactorsfortheregionalcarriersincreased0.
6pointsto74.
3percent.
In2010,domesticloadfactorisforecasttoincrease1.
2pointsto81.
6percentasmainlineandregionalcarrierloadfactorsrise1.
2and1.
5points,respectively.
Thereafter,commercialcarrierdomesticloadfactorgraduallyrisesto83.
2percentby2030.
In2009domesticpassengertriplengthfell3.
4milesto870.
5miles,afterincreasing3.
7milesin2008.
Passengertriplengthisforecasttodeclineby0.
7milesin2010andby0.
3milesin2011ascarrierscontinuetorestructuretheirnetworksandrealigncapacity.
After2011,triplengthisprojectedtosteadilyincreaseforthebalanceoftheforecast,reaching997.
2milesby2030.
Theincreaseintriplengthreflectsincreasesinbothmainlineandregionalcarriertriplength.
Mainlinecarriertriplengthincreasesasthinner,shorterhaulmarketsarerelinquishedtoregionalpartnersandreplacedwithflyingoflongerdomestictrips.
Regionalcarriertriplengthincreasesasflyinginshorterhaulmarketsisabandonedand/orreducedasmoreofthelarger70and90-seatregionaljetspenetratethinnerlonger-haulmarketspreviouslyonlyaccessiblewithmainlineequipment.
Anotherkeyfactorinpredictingaviationactivityrelativetopassengerdemandisthelevelofconnectingversusnon-stop(origin-destination)traffic.
However,asthecurrentcycleofU.
S.
airlineindustryrestructuringunfoldsandhubstructureschange,theimpactonlocalcommunitiesandairportactivitylevelscanvarysignificantly.
37FAAAerospaceForecastFiscalYears2010–2030TheFAAanalyzestheratioofpassengerenplanementstoorigin-destination(O&D)passengersovertimetoidentifychangesinconnectingversusnon-stoptraffic.
Thisratioisanindicatorofthetendencyoftheaveragepassengertoconnectduringatypicaljourney.
Theclosertheratioisto1.
0,themorepassengersflyonapoint-to-pointrouting.
Asthechartbelowshows,theoverallratiofortheU.
S.
domesticindustryvariedwithinanarrowbandbetween1995and2002.
After2002,theratiotraileddownwarduntiltheendof2008.
Thedeclineintheratioduringthissixyearperiodischaracterizedbyadropinconnectivitybythenetworkcarriersandrisingpassengershareforthelow-costcarriers.
Theuptickintheratioduring2009indicatesanincreaseofhubbingbythecarriers.
TheFAA'sforecastrecognizesthechangingpatternofdomestictrafficconnectivityandthesetrendsarecapturedintheforecast'spassengerenplanementtotals.
InternationalMarketsU.
S.
andForeignFlagCarriersFAAprovidesforecastsoftotalinternationalpassengerdemand(thesumofU.
S.
andforeignflagcarriers)fortravelbetweentheUnitedStatesandthreeworldtravelareas--Atlantic,LatinAmerica(includingMexicoandtheCaribbean),andAsia/Pacific--aswellasforU.
S.
/Canadiantransbordertraffic.
TheseforecastsarebasedonhistoricalpassengerstatisticsfromtheUnitedStatesImmigrationandNaturalizationServices(INS)andTransportCanada,andonregionalworldhistoricaldataandeconomicprojectionsfromGlobalInsight,Inc.
TotalpassengertrafficbetweentheUnitedStatesandtherestoftheworldisestimatedtototal147.
1millioninCY2009,4.
7percentlowerthanin2008.
Astheworldwideeconomybeginstorecoverfromtherecessionof2009,internationalpassengersgrow3.
3percentin2010.
Astheworldeconomicrecoverygainssolidfootingin2011,passengergrowthisup5.
0percent.
Forthebalanceoftheforecastperiod,stableworldwideeconomicgrowthleadsinternationalpassengergrowthtoaverage4.
2percentayear,andtotaling347.
9millionin2030.
Overtheentireforecastperiod(2009-2030),higheconomicgrowthintheAsia-Pacificmarketdrivespassengergrowthaveraging5.
1percentayearforthisregion.
India,China,andTaiwan(passengergrowthof8.
0,7.
9,and7.
8percentayear,respectively)areforecasttobethefastestgrowingmarketsintheregion.
GrowthintheJapanmarket(thelargestandmostmatureintheregion)isprojectedtobewellbelowtheU.
S.
COMMERCIALCARRIERSDOMESTICENPLANEMENTSPERODPAX1995-20091.
371.
371.
381.
371.
361.
361.
381.
351.
341.
321.
321.
321.
341.
381.
381.
201.
251.
301.
351.
401.
45Sources:DOTT100andO&DSurvey199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009FAAAerospaceForecastFiscalYears2010–203038regionalaverageat2.
4percentayear.
IntheAtlanticregion,openskiesbetweentheEuropeanUnionandtheUnitedStatesandincreasingnon-stopservicetoAfricaandtheMiddleEasthelpstofuelpassengergrowthof3.
9percentayearovertheforecastperiod.
Overthe21-yearforecasthorizon,averageannualpassengergrowthinthetopthreeAtlanticmarkets--theUnitedKingdom,Germany,andFrance,is4.
2,3.
6,and4.
1percent,respectively.
IntheLatinAmericaregion,passengergrowthbetween2009and2030isforecasttoaverage4.
3percentayear.
ThehighestgrowthisprojectedforBrazil(averageannualgrowthof7.
0percent)whilethelargestmarketintheregion,Mexico,growsatanaverageof4.
1percentayear.
TheslowestratesofgrowthareprojectedtooccurintheBahamianandJamaicanmarkets(averaginggrowthof0.
5and2.
6percentayear,respectively).
GrowthintheCanadiantransbordermarketisforecasttobehigherthanthatofthedomesticU.
S.
market(2.
4percent),averaging3.
4percentayearovertheforecastperiod.
U.
S.
FlagAirCarriersIn2009,internationalU.
S.
commercialaircarriercapacityfell3.
5percentfrom2008levels.
Capacityfallsanadditional2.
8percentin2010ascarriersfurthercutcapacityduetoreduceddemandforairtravel.
IntheAtlanticandPacificmarketscapacitydecreases5.
5and2.
2percent,respectively,in2010.
Conversely,capacityintheLatinregionduringthesameperiodgrows1.
8percentreflectingareboundfromtheimpactofH1N1fluvirus.
Withastrongeconomicrecoveryintheglobaleconomiesexpectedfor2011,internationalcapacitygrowsmodestlyat4.
7percent,andaverages4.
6percentayearfortheremainderoftheforecastperiod.
Stronggrowthinthemediumtolong-termportionoftheforecastreflectsfavorableU.
S.
andworldeconomicactivity.
U.
S.
&FOREIGNFLAGCARRIERSPASSENGERSTO/FROMTHEU.
S.
2009-20303.
94.
35.
13.
40.
02.
04.
06.
0AtlanticLatinAmericaAsia/PacificCanadaTransborderAVERAGEANNUALPERCENTGROWTH39FAAAerospaceForecastFiscalYears2010–2030U.
S.
commercialaircarrierinternationalRPMsfell5.
6percentin2009asenplanementsdecreased6.
6percent.
RPMsareprojectedtoincreaseslightlyin2010(up0.
3percent),asincreasesintheLatinandPacificregionsoffsetamodestdeclineintheAtlanticregion.
In2011,U.
S.
carrierinternationalRPMsincrease4.
7percentledbygrowthintheAtlanticmarket(up5.
2percent)andfollowedbygrowthintheLatin(up4.
6percent)andPacificmarkets(up3.
7percent).
Forthebalanceoftheforecast,RPMsincreaseanaverage4.
7percentayearwiththefastestgrowthintheLatinregion.
Asimilarpatternisforecastforenplanementgrowth.
Internationalenplanementsareprojectedtoincrease0.
9percentin2010,andthengrow4.
0percentin2011.
Overthebalanceoftheforecastperiod,enplanementsareforecasttoincreaseanaverageof4.
1percentayearwiththefastestgrowthinPacificandLatinmarkets(up5.
0and4.
4percentayear,respectively).
U.
S.
COMMERCIALAIRCARRIERSINTERNATIONALASMS2009-2030(5.
5)(2.
0)3.
9(3.
0)1.
85.
55.
0(6.
7)(2.
2)(3.
5)(2.
8)4.
6-9.
0-6.
0-3.
00.
03.
06.
09.
0200920102010-30AtlanticLatinPacificTotalAnnualPercentGrowthU.
S.
COMMERCIALAIRCARRIERSINTERNATIONALRPMS2009-20304.
0(1.
9)(3.
4)5.
63.
7(6.
0)1.
25.
1(9.
4)(5.
6)0.
34.
7-12.
0-9.
0-6.
0-3.
00.
03.
06.
09.
0200920102010-30AtlanticLatinPacificTotalANNUALPERCENTGROWTHFAAAerospaceForecastFiscalYears2010–203040TheslowergrowthinU.
S.
carrierinternationalpassengersovertheperiod2009-2030(4.
0percentayear)comparedtototalinternationalpassengers(4.
2percentayear)reflectsasmalldeclineinmarketshareforU.
S.
airlinesovertheforecastperiod.
ForecastsofinternationaldemandassumeU.
S.
andforeignflagcarrierswillbenefitfromthefavorableeconomicactivityinboththeUnitedStatesandworldmarkets.
InternationalloadfactorforU.
S.
commercialcarrierswas78.
1percentin2009.
Loadfactorisexpectedtoincrease2.
5pointstobe80.
6percentin2010ascapacitygrowthlagstrafficgrowthinallthreeworldmarkets.
Internationalloadfactorisprojectedtofall0.
1pointsin2011andriseslowlyfortheremainderoftheforecasttobe81.
1percentin2030.
Internationalpassengerrealyieldsformainlinecarriersweredown12.
6percentin2009.
ThelargestdecreasewasintheAtlanticmarket(down15.
1percent),followedbythePacific(down11.
8percent)andLatinmarket(down7.
8percent)reflectingalackofpricingpowerbyU.
S.
carriersandthesignificantfallindemandresultingfromtheglobalrecession.
Buoyedbystrengtheningdemand,internationalrealyieldsareprojectedtoincrease3.
1percentin2010andthenincreaseby4.
7percentin2011.
Fortheremainderoftheforecastperiod,realyielddecreasesanaverageof1.
0percentayear.
Innominalterms,internationalyieldsareforecasttoincrease4.
6percentin2010,increase6.
7percentin2011andthengrowatanannualrateof0.
9percentovertheremainderoftheforecast.
Thedeclineinrealyieldsassumescompetitivepressureswillholdthelineonfareincreases.
Ininternationalmarkets,thistakestheformofexpandedopenskyagreementsandglobalalliances.
CommercialAirCarriers—AirCargoHistorically,aircargoactivitytrackswithGDP.
Additionalfactorsthathaveaffectedthegrowthinaircargotrafficincludetheglobalfinancialcrisis,decliningrealyields,andglobalization.
Significantstructuralchangeshaveoccurredintheaircargoindustry.
Amongthesechangesarethefollowing:aircargosecurityregulationsbytheFAAandTSA;marketmaturationofthedomesticexpressmarket;modalshiftfromairtoothermodes(especiallytruck);increasesinairfuelsurcharges;growthininternationaltradefromopenskiesagreements;useofall-cargocarriers(e.
g.
,FedEx)bytheU.
S.
PostalServicetotransportmail;andincreaseduseofmailsubstitutes(e.
g.
,e-mail).
TheforecastsofRevenueTonMiles(RTMs)arebasedonseveralassumptionsspecifictothecargoindustry.
First,securityrestrictionsonaircargotransportationwillremaininplace.
Second,mostoftheshiftfromairtogroundtransportationhasoccurred.
Finally,long-termcargoactivitywillbetiedtoeconomicgrowth.
TheforecastsofRTMswerebasedmainlyonmodelsthatlinkcargoactivitytoGDP.
ForecastsofdomesticcargoRTMsweredevelopedwithrealU.
S.
GDPastheprimarydriver.
ProjectionsofinternationalcargoRTMswerebasedongrowthinworldGDP,adjustedforinflation.
ThedistributionofRTMsbetweenpassengercarriersandall-cargocarrierswasforecastbasedonananalysisofhistorictrendsinshares,changesinindustrystructure,andmarketassumptions.
TotalRTMsareforecasttogrow3.
4percentin2010andagainin2011by4.
9percent.
Forthebalanceoftheforecastperiod,drivenbysteadyeconomicgrowth,totalRTMsareforecasttoincreaseatanaverage41FAAAerospaceForecastFiscalYears2010–2030annualrateof5.
1percent.
Theforecastof86.
6billionRTMsin2030representsanaverageannualincreaseof5.
0percentovertheentireforecastperiod.
DomesticcargoRTMsareforecasttogrow1.
3percentin2010and2.
0percentin2011,drivenbyaslowrecoveryintheU.
S.
economy.
Between2011and2030,domesticcargoRTMsareforecasttoincreaseatanaverageannualrateof2.
2percent.
Theforecastof18.
5billionRTMsin2030representsanaverageannualincreaseof2.
1percentovertheentireforecastperiod.
Thefreight/expresssegmentofdomesticaircargoishighlycorrelatedwithcapitalspending.
Thus,thegrowthofthissegmentinthefuturewillbetiedtogrowthintheeconomy.
Themailsegmentofdomesticaircargowillbeaffectedbypriceandsubstitution(electronicmail).
Theall-cargocarriershaveincreasedtheirshareofdomesticcargoRTMsflownfrom65.
4percentin1997to86.
2percentin2009.
ThisisbecauseofsignificantgrowthinexpressservicebyFedExandUnitedParcelServicecoupledwithalackofgrowthofdomesticfreight/expressbusinessforpassengercarriers.
Theall-cargoshareisforecasttoincreaseto90.
4percentby2030basedonincreasesinwide-bodycapacityforall-cargocarriersandsecurityconsiderations.
InternationalcargoRTMsareforecastedtorise4.
7percentin2010reflectingarecoveryfromtheglobaleconomicdownturnandgrow6.
6percentin2011asworldeconomicgrowthreboundsandtradeexpands.
Forthebalanceoftheforecastperiod,internationalcargoRTMsareforecasttoincreaseanaverageof6.
3percentayearbasedonprojectedgrowthinworldGDP.
Theforecast68.
1billionRTMsin2030representsanaverageannualincreaseof6.
3percentovertheentireforecastperiod.
TheshareofinternationalcargoRTMsflownbyall-cargocarriersincreasedfrom63.
3percentin2008to63.
6percentin2009.
Beyond2009,theall-cargoshareofRTMsflownisforecasttoincreasemodestlyto69.
9percentby2030.
U.
S.
COMMERCIALAIRCARRIERSRTMS2009-20302.
2(17.
7)1.
34.
7(23.
0)6.
4-27.
0-24.
0-21.
0-18.
0-15.
0-12.
0-9.
0-6.
0-3.
00.
03.
06.
09.
0200920102010-30DomesticInternationalANNUALPERCENTGROWTHFAAAerospaceForecastFiscalYears2010–203042CommercialAircraftFleetThenumberofcommercialaircraftisforecasttogrowfrom7,132in2009to10,274in2030,anaverageannualgrowthrateof1.
8percentor150aircraftannually.
Thecommercialfleetwillshrinkbyanet107aircraftin2010aftershrinkingby323aircraftin2009asthedramaticfalloffindemandandhighfuelpricescompelledcarrierstoprunetheirfleets.
Incomparison,theUScommercialfleetcontractedby262aircraftbetween2000and2003,thelastdownturninaviation.
Thenumberofpassengerjetsinthemainlinecarrierfleetdecreasedby129aircraftin2009andisexpectedtofallanother17aircraftin2010beforeincreasingin2011by40aircraft.
Fortheperiod2010-2030,themainlineaircarrierpassengerfleetincreasesanaverageof85aircraftayear,totaling5,342aircraftin2030.
Thenarrow-bodyfleet(includingE-190'satJetBlueandUSAirways)isprojectedtogrowby60aircraftannuallyovertheperiod2010-2030;thewide-bodyfleetgrowsby25aircraftayearastheBoeing787andAirbusA350'senterthefleet.
Theregionalcarrierpassengerfleetisforecasttodecreaseby113aircraftin2010ascarriersremovelargenumbersof50seatandsmallerregionaljets.
After2010,theregionalcarrierfleetisexpectedtoincreasebyanaverageof45aircraft(1.
6percent)overtheremainingyearsoftheforecastperiod,totaling3,401aircraftin2030.
Thenumberofregionaljets(90seatsorfewer)atregionalcarriersisprojectedtogrowfrom1,710in2009to2,441in2030,anaverageannualincreaseof1.
7percent.
Allthegrowthinregionaljetsovertheforecastperiodoccursinthelarger70and90-seataircraft.
Duringtheforecastperiod,allregionaljetsof50orlessseatsareremovedfromthefleet,reflectingtherelaxationofscopeclauses.
Theturboprop/pistonfleetisexpectedtogrowfrom902unitsin2009to960in2030.
Turboprop/pistonaircraftareexpectedtoaccountforjust28.
2percentoftheregionalcarrierpassengerfleetin2030,downfroma42.
4percentsharein2009.
Cargolargejetaircraftareforecasttoincreaseby55aircraftoverthenext2years(from854to909aircraftin2011),andtotal1,531aircraftin2030.
Thenarrow-bodyjetfleetisprojectedtoincreaseby10aircraftayearoverthe21-yearforecastperiodasolder757'sand737'sareconvertedtocargoservice.
Thewide-bodyjetfleetisprojectedtoincreaseby22aircraftyearly.
U.
S.
COMMERCIALAIRCRAFTFLEETCALENDARYEARS2009–2030(3.
4)(0.
5)1.
92.
72.
8(11.
0)(4.
3)(3.
3)1.
6-12.
0-10.
0-8.
0-6.
0-4.
0-2.
00.
02.
04.
06.
0200920102010-30MAINLINE-ACCARGOREGIONALANNUALPERCENTGROWTH43FAAAerospaceForecastFiscalYears2010–2030GeneralAviationTheFAAforecaststhefleetandhoursflownforsingle-enginepistonaircraft,multi-enginepiston,turboprops,turbojets,pistonandturbinepoweredrotorcraft,lightsport,experimentalandother(whichconsistsofglidersandlighterthanairvehicles).
TheFAAforecasts"activeaircraft,"9nottotalaircraft.
TheFAAusesestimatesoffleetsize,hoursflown,andutilizationfromtheGeneralAviationandPart135ActivitySurvey(GASurvey)asbaselinefiguresuponwhichassumedgrowthratescanbeapplied.
Beginningwiththe2004GASurveythereweresignificantimprovementstothesurveymethodology.
Coincidingwiththechangedsurveymethodology,largechangesinmanycategorieswereobserved,bothinthenumberofaircraftandhoursflown.
Theresultsofthe2008GASurveyareconsistentwiththeresultsofsurveyssince2004,reinforcingourbeliefthatthemethodologicalimprovementshaveresultedinsuperiorestimatesrelativetothoseinthepast.
Thus,theyareusedasthebasisforourforecast.
BecauseresultsfromtheGASurveyarenotpublisheduntilthefollowingyear,the2008statisticsarethelatestavailable.
Figuresfor2009areestimatedbasedonotheractivityindicators,andtheforecastsofactivitybeginin2010andcontinuethrough2030.
Thedemandforbusinessjetaircrafthasgrownoverthepastseveralyears.
Newproductofferings,theintroductionofverylightjets,andincreasingforeigndemandhavehelpedtodrivethisgrowth.
Inaddition,corporatesafety/securityconcernsforcorporatestaff,combinedwithincreasingflightdelaysatsomeU.
S.
airportshavemadefractional,corporate,andon-demandcharterflightspracticalalternativestotraveloncommercialflights.
Despitethehardimpactoftherecessionfeltinthebusinessjetmarket,theforecastcallsforrobustgrowthinthelongtermoutlookandpredictsbusinessusageofgeneralaviationaircraftwillexpandatafasterpacethanthatforpersonal/recreationaluse.
Theactivegeneralaviationfleetisprojectedtoincreaseatanaverageannualrateof0.
9percentoverthe21-yearforecastperiod,growingfromanestimated229,149in2009to278,723aircraftby2030.
Themoreexpensiveandsophisticatedturbine-poweredfleet(includingrotorcraft)isprojectedtogrowatanaverageof3.
0percentayearovertheforecastperiod,withtheturbinejetportionincreasingat4.
2percentayear.
ACTIVEGENERALAVIATIONAIRCRAFTCALENDARYEARS2009–20300.
22.
40.
21.
03.
02.
30.
01.
02.
03.
04.
0200920102010-30TOTALTURBINESANNUALPERCENTGROWTH9Anactiveaircraftisonethatfliesatleastonehourduringtheyear.
FAAAerospaceForecastFiscalYears2010–203044Withtheadventofarelativelyinexpensivetwin-engineverylightjet(VLJ),manyquestionshavearisenastothefutureimpacttheymayhave.
TheloweracquisitionandoperatingcostsofVLJswerebelievedtohavethepotentialtorevolutionizethebusinessjetmarket,particularlybybeingabletosustainatrueon-demandair-taxiservice.
Whileinitialforecastscalledforover400aircrafttobedeliveredayear,eventssuchastherecessionalongwiththebankruptcyofEclipseandDayJethaveledustotempermorerecentforecasts.
TheworldwidedeliveryofVLJsthisyearhashelduprelativelywellcomparedtotheturbinejetmarketasawhole,helpedinlargepartbytheintroductionofEmbraer'sPhenom100tothemarket.
Despitethat,theimpactsoftherecessionhaveledtodampenedexpectations.
Thecurrentforecastcallsfor440VLJstoentertheUSfleetoverthenextthreeyears,withanaverageof216aircraftayearforthebalanceoftheforecastperiod.
Thenumberofactivepiston-poweredaircraft(includingrotorcraft)isprojectedtodecreasefromthe2008totalof166,514through2017,withdeclinesinbothsingleandmulti-enginefixedwingaircraft,butwiththesmallercategoryofpiston-poweredrotorcraftgrowing.
Beyond2017activepiston-poweredaircraftareforecasttoincreaseto172,613by2030.
Overtheforecastperiod,theaverageannualincreaseinpiston-poweredaircraftis0.
2percent.
Althoughpistonrotorcraftareprojectedtoincreaserapidlyat3.
4percentayear,theyarearelativelysmallpartofthissegmentofgeneralaviationaircraft.
Single-enginefixed-wingpistonaircraft,whicharemuchmorenumerous,areprojectedtogrowatamuchslowerrate(0.
2percentrespectively)whilemulti-enginefixedwingpistonaircraftareprojectedtodecline0.
8percentayear.
Inaddition,itisassumedthatVLJsandnewlightsportaircraftcoulderodethereplacementmarketfortraditionalpistonaircraftatthehighandlowendsofthemarketrespectively.
Startingin2005,anewcategoryofaircraft(previouslynotincludedintheFAA'saircraftregistrycounts)wascreated:"lightsport"aircraft.
Attheendof2008atotalof6,811activeaircraftwereestimatedtobeinthiscategorywhiletheforecastassumesthefleetwillincreaseapproximately825aircraftperyearuntil2013.
Thereaftertherateofincreaseinthefleettapersconsiderablytoabout335peryear.
By2030atotalof16,311lightsportaircraftareprojectedtobeinthefleet.
Thenumberofgeneralaviationhoursflownisprojectedtoincreaseby2.
5percentyearlyovertheforecastperiod.
Alargeportionofthisgrowthwilloccurintheshorttermpostrecessionperiod,whererecordlowutilizationratesexperiencedin2009willreturntonormaltrends,particularlyintheturbinejetcategory.
Aswithpreviousforecasts,muchofthelongtermincreaseinhoursflownreflectsstronggrowthintherotorcraftandturbinejetcategory.
Hoursflownbyturbineaircraft(includingrotorcraft)areforecasttoincrease4.
1percentyearlyovertheforecastperiod,comparedwith1.
1percentforpiston-poweredaircraft.
Jetaircraftareforecasttoaccountformostoftheincrease,withhoursflownincreasingatanaverageannualrateof6.
1percentovertheforecastperiod.
Thelargeincreasesinjethoursresultmainlyfromtheincreasingsizeofthebusinessjetfleet,alongwithmeasuredrecoveryinutilizationratesfromrecessioninducedrecordlows.
Rotorcrafthours,relativelyimmunetotheeconomicdownturnwhencomparedtoothercategories,areprojectedtogrowby3.
0percentyearly.
Thelightsportaircraftcategoryisexpectedtoseeincreasesinhoursflownonaverageof5.
9percentayear,whichisprimarilydrivenbygrowthinthefleet.
45FAAAerospaceForecastFiscalYears2010–2030Thenumberofactivegeneralaviationpilots(excludingairtransportpilots)isprojectedtobe501,875in2030,anincreaseofover52,000(up0.
5percentyearly)overtheforecastperiod.
Commercialpilotsareprojectedtoincreasefrom125,738in2009to139,100in2030,anaverageannualincreaseof0.
5percent.
Thenumberofstudentpilotsisforecasttoincreaseatanaverageannualrateof0.
8percentovertheforecastperiod,growingfrom72,280in2009to86,050in2030.
Inaddition,FAAisprojectingthatbytheendoftheforecastperiodatotalof14,100sportpilotswillbecertified.
AsofDecember31,2009,thenumberofsportpilotcertificatesissuedwas3,248reflectingasteadyincreaseinthisnew"entrylevel"pilotcertificatethatwasonlycreatedin2005.
Thenumberofprivatepilotsisprojectedtogrowatanaverageyearlyrateof0.
2%overtheforecastperiodtototal219,050in2030.
FAAWorkloadForecastsFAAandContractTowersActivityatthe508FAA(264)andcontracttowers(244)totaled52.
9millionoperationsin2009,down10.
4percentfrom2008.
Activityisprojectedtodecrease2.
7percentin2010,withdeclinesinbothcommercialandnon-commercialoperations.
Growthinactivityresumesin2011(0.
8percent)ledbyincreasesinnon-commercialactivity(up1.
1percent).
Forthebalanceoftheforecast,activitygrowsatanaveragerateof1.
6percentperyear,reaching69.
6millionoperationsin2030.
Mostofthegrowthovertheforecastperiodresultsfromincreasedcommercialaircraftactivity(up1.
7percentannually).
Aircarrieractivityisprojectedtoshrink2.
4percentin2010ascarrierscontinuetocutcapacityastheunemploymentratecontinuestorise.
In2011,aircarrieractivityisprojectedtoincrease0.
7percentasairlinecapacitybeginstorebound,andgrowsanaverageof2.
3percentperyearovertheforecastperiod.
Commuter/airtaxioperationsareforecastedtofall1.
9percentin2010thenremainflatin2011.
Forthebalanceoftheforecastperiod,commuter/airtaxioperationsareprojectedtoincrease1.
6percentperyear.
Generalaviationactivityfell11.
7percentin2009withsteepdeclinesinbothitinerant(down11.
2percent)andlocal(down12.
2percent)activity.
Activityisprojectedtofallagainin2010(down3.
1percent)reflectingtheresidualimpactofthe2009recessionandthenrisemodestlyin2011and2012(up1.
2HOURSFLOWNINGENERALAVIATIONAIRCRAFTCALENDARYEARS2009-2030-12.
1-1.
8-10.
32.
70.
64.
3-14.
0-12.
0-10.
0-8.
0-6.
0-4.
0-2.
00.
02.
04.
06.
0200920102010-30TOTALTURBINESANNUALPERCENTGROWTHFAAAerospaceForecastFiscalYears2010–203046percentbothyears)asfallingunemploymentpromotesthegrowthofflighthoursandoperationsdespiteslightlyhigheroilprices.
Fortheentireforecastperiod,generalaviationactivityattoweredairportsisprojectedtoincreaseanaverageof1.
1percentayear,to35.
1millionoperationsin2030.
GeneralaviationactivityatcombinedFAA/contracttowersgrowsinlinewiththemodestincreaseforecastedforgeneralaviationpistonhoursalreadycited.
Mostoperationsatthesmallertowersareinpistonaircraft,whilethoseatthelargestairportstendtobeturbineoperations.
Militaryactivityrose1.
1percentin2009.
Operations10atFAATRACONs(TerminalRadarApproachControl)fell9.
7percentin2009,thefifthyearinarow.
Theyareprojectedtodeclineagainin2010(down1.
1percent)astheeffectsoftherecessioncontinuetobefeltwithdecreasesinbothcommercialandnon-commercialactivity.
TRACONoperationsareforecasttorise1.
0percentin2011beforeincreasingatanaverageannualrateof1.
7percentforthebalanceoftheforecast.
Fortheentireforecastperiod,TRACONoperationsgrowanaverageof1.
5percentperyear,totaling54.
4millionin2030.
EnRouteCentersThenumberofIFRaircrafthandledatFAAenroutetrafficcontrolcentersdecreased11.
6percentto40.
1millionin2009,withallusergroupspostingdeclinesinactivity.
Activityatenroutecentersisforecasttodecreaseby1.
6percentin2010inthewakeofdecreasedcommercialandgeneralaviationactivity.
Growthinen-routeactivityresumesin2011(up1.
4percent)ledbyincreasesinaircarrieractivity.
After2011,throughthebalanceoftheforecastperiod,enrouteactivityincreases2.
5percentannually,reaching64.
1millionaircrafthandledin2030.
Overtheentireforecastperiod,commercialactivityisprojectedtoincreaseatanaverageannualrateof2.
7percent,reflectingincreasesinthecommercialfleetandaircraftstagelengths.
Duringthesameperiod,generalaviationactivityisprojectedtogrow0.
7percentperyear,reflectingmodestgrowthinbusinessaviation.
Militaryactivityisheldconstantatthe2009activitylevelthroughouttheforecastperiod.
TRACONOPERATIONSFISCALYEARS2009-2030(9.
7)(1.
1)1.
7(1.
7)(10.
1)2.
1-12.
0-9.
0-6.
0-3.
00.
03.
0200920102010-30TOTALCOMMERCIALANNUALPERCENTGROWTH10TRACONoperationsconsistofitinerantIFRandVFRarrivalsanddeparturesatallairportsinthedomainoftheTRACONaswellasIFRandVFRoverflights.
47FAAAerospaceForecastFiscalYears2010–2030IFRAIRCRAFTHANDLEDATFAAENROUTECENTERSFISCALYEARS2009-2030(11.
7)2.
5(1.
6)(9.
6)2.
9(1.
6)-14.
0-12.
0-10.
0-8.
0-6.
0-4.
0-2.
00.
02.
04.
0200920102010-30TOTALCOMMERCIALANNUALPERCENTGROWTH