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1FrankMiao,CFA—SeniorAnalyst(852)36986320Frankmiao@chinastock.
com.
hkJohnMulcahy—HeadofResearch(852)36986889johnmul@chinastock.
com.
hkOctober31,2013Allaroundthehouses—#7ContractedsalesmomentumtocontinueKeyview:MajorHongKong-listeddeveloperswillstarttoannounceOctobercontractedsalesnumbersinthefirstandsecondweekofNovember.
WeexpectLongfor(0960HK,BUY)andKaisa(1638.
HK;BUY)toseesequentialgrowthincontractedsalesinOcto-ber.
Kaisaisscheduledtolaunch400unitsofitsShenzhenYueFengprojecttoday(October31st).
Accordingtoourchannelcheck,theprojecthasattractedover5,000visitorssinceOctober26thwithinwhichcloseto500buyershaveexpressedinterest.
WeestimatetheprojectaloneshouldgenerateapproximatelyRMB1bn,orcloseto50%ofitsaveragemonthly,ofcontractedsales.
WebelievemostofthecontractedsalesfromthisprojectshouldbeincludedinreportedcontractedsalesinNovember.
ReiterateBuy.
KeyNews:XiJinping'scommentsonrealestate,socialhousingandsuppliesarethekey.
Propertytaxissaidtobeontheagendaforthe3rdPlenarymeeting.
ChinaVanke(000002.
SZ)tobecomethelargestshareholderinHuishangBankRealestatemarketperformance:WeeklytransactionvolumewasmaintainedatahighlevelinthelastweekofOctoberwithaggregatevolumein22citiesup4%week-on-week(WoW).
Daliansawthestrong-estgrowthwitha48%WoWincreaseinGFAsold,whileBeijingshowedthelargestde-clinewitha19%WoWdropasbuyerswaitedonthesidelineafterannouncementofthe"sevenrules".
BothASPandinventorylevelremainedrelativelystable.
Shareperformance:SharepriceofChinapropertynameswerelargelyflatduringpastweek,withCountryGarden(2007HK,NR,-4.
7%)andLongfor(960HK,NR,-3.
1%)beingtheworstper-formers.
BestperformersareGloriousProperty(845HK,NR)andSOHOChina(410HK,Hold).
BestperformersoverthepastweekwereShuiOnLand(272HK,NR)andSunac(1918HK,NR).
ChinaPropertySector2Keynews/updatesXiJinping'scommentontherealestatesector—socialhousingandsuppliesremainedthekey:AccordingtoaXinhua.
netreport,ChairmanXiJinpinghostedagroupstudysessiononOctober29thwithafocusonChina'ssocialhousingschemeandhousingsupplysystem.
ChairmanXiJinpingstressedthat1){Chinashould)acceleratethedevelopmentandincreaseofhousingsupplyasitisanimportanttaskinfulfillingthebasichousingneedsofthegeneralpublic;2)tourgegovernmentatalllevelstoestablishasocialhousingschemeandasystematicwaytoincreasesupply;and3)toestablishpublicrentalhousingandlow-renthousingasthemajorformsofsocialhousing.
Chair-manXialsostressedthatthereisaneedto:1)balancebetweenpublicandprivatesector;2)toestablishacomprehensivesystemthatincorporatestoolsonland,financing,andtaxationfronttoattractmorepartiestosocialhousingdevelopment;and3)toestablishafairdistributionandmanage-mentsystemforthesocialhousingscheme.
Ourview:WebelievethisistherightdirectiontotackleChina'shousingissuesandisverypositivetomarketsentimentonChinapropertystocks.
Previously,themarket'sconcernonChinarealestatepolicieswaslargelycenteredaroundfearofmoreadministrativemeasures.
SubsequenttoBeijing'ssevenrulestopromote"Self-usecommodityproperties",marketwasworriedthattherecouldbeafloodofnewsupplythatcouldcrashpropertyprices.
WecontinuetobelieveChinawillfollowamoremarket-orientedapproachwithmulti-layerofsupplies,withregardtoherapproachfortherealestatemarket,whichissupportiveofshareprice,inourview.
http://news.
xinhuanet.
com/politics/2013-10/30/c_117937412.
htmPropertytaxsaidtobeincludedindiscussionduringthe3rdPlenarymeeting:AccordingtoYicai,quotingunnamedsource,propertytaxexpansionhasbeenincludedintodiscussionduringthe3rdPlenarymeetingonNovember.
Accordingtothereport,notonlyregionalcoverage,thedepthandscopeofcoveragecouldalsobesubjectedtodiscussion.
Ourview:Webelievetheexpansionofpropertytaxhasbeenmoreorlessintheprice,theonlysurprisesbeingonscopeandcoverage—i.
e.
taxrate.
Wecontinuetobelievethatthepropertytaxschemeshouldcontinuetoprotectfirst-timebuyerdemand.
Asteeptaxrate—i.
e.
over1.
5%-ishighlyunlikely.
http://house.
stockstar.
com/IG2013103000001385.
shtmlChinaVanke(000002.
SZ)investedinHuishangBank:ChinaVanke(000002.
SZ),China'slargestrealestatecompany,willinvestabout$419millioninHuishangBanktobecomeitsbiggestshareholderafterthebankgetslistedinHongKong,.
HuishangBankplanstohaveitsIPOonHongKongExchangeandClearingLimitedonNovember12andtheIPOpricewillbebetweenHK$3.
47($0.
45)toHK$3.
88pershareandthat2.
61billionshareswillbeissuedintotal.
http://www.
globaltimes.
cn/NEWS/tabid/99/ID/821223/Vanke-to-become-biggest-shareholder-in-Huishang-Bank.
aspx3Figure4:LandbankexposuretocitieswithhighpropertypricegrowthSource:Companydata,CGIHKR4Figure5:BeijingweeklytransactionFigure6:ShanghaiweeklytransactionSource:CGIHKResearchSource:CGIHKResearchFigure7:TianjinweeklytransactionFigure8:ShenzhenweeklytransactionSource:CGIHKResearchSource:CGIHKResearchFigure9:GuangzhouweeklytransactionFigure10:NingboWeeklytransactionSource:CGIHKResearchSource:CGIHKResearch5Figure11:ShenyangweeklytransactionFigure12:FuzhouweeklytransactionSource:CGIHKResearchSource:CGIHKResearchFigure13:HangzhouweeklytransactionFigure14:NanjingweeklytransactionSource:CGIHKResearchSource:CGIHKResearchFigure15:ChengduweeklytransactionFigure16:ChangshaWeeklytransactionSource:CGIHKResearchSource:CGIHKResearch6DISCLAIMERForprivateperusalonly.
Thisreport(includinganyinformationattached)isissuedbyChinaGalaxyInternationalSecurities(HongKong)Co.
,Limited,oneofthesubsidiariesoftheChinaGalaxyInternationalFinancialHoldingsLimited,toindividualaddresseewhethertheyarepro-fessionalinvestor,institutionalclientorotherwise,ingoodfaithfromsourcesbelievedtobereliablebutnorepresentationorwarranty(expresslyorimplied)ismadeastotheiraccuracy,correctnessand/orcompleteness.
Whereanypartoftheinformation,opinionsoresti-matescontainedhereinreflectsthepersonalviewsandopinionsoftheanalystwhopreparedthisreport,suchviewsandopinionsmaynotcorrespondtothepublishedviewofChinaGalaxyInternationalFinancialHoldingsLimitedandanyofitssubsidiaries.
Thisreportshallnotbeconstruedasanoffer,invitationorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecuritiesofthecompanyorcompaniesreferredtoherein.
Allopinionsandestimatesreflectthejudgmentoftheanalystonthedateofthisreportandaresubjecttochangewithoutnotice.
PleasetakenotethatmembercompaniesofChinaGalaxyInternationalFinancialHoldingsLimited(includingbutnotlimitedtoChinaGalaxyInternationalSecurities(HongKong)Co.
,Ltd)and/ortheirdirectors,officers,agentsandemployees("theRelevantParties")mayhaveaninterestinsecuritiesofthecompanyorcompaniesreferredtointhisreport.
TheRelevantPartiesherebydisclaimanyoftheirliabilitiesaris-ingfromtheinaccuracy,incorrectnessandincompletenessofthisreportanditsattachment(s)and/oranyactionoromissionmadeinreli-ancethereof.
Accordingly,thisreportmustbereadinconjunctionwiththisdisclaimer.
COPYRIGHTRESERVEDChinaGalaxyInternationalSecurities(HongKong)Co.
Limited,CENo.
AXM459,Room3501-3507,35/F,CoscoTower,GrandMillenniumPlaza,183Queen'sRoadCentral,SheungWan,HongKong.
Generalline:3698-6888.
AnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimarilyresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreport,inwholeorinpart,certifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuercoveredinthisreport:(1)alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubject,securi-tiesorissuer;and(2)nopartofhisorhercompensationwas,is,orwillbe,directlyorindirectly,relatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbytheanalystinthisreport.
Besides,theanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhis/herassociates(asdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission)(1)havedealtinortradedinthestock(s)coveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport;(2)willdealinortradeinthestock(s)coveredinthisresearchreportthreebusinessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport;(3)serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreport;and(4)haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreport.
ExplanationonEquityRatingsBUY:Weexpectthetotalreturnonthestocktoexceed20%overa12to18monthhorizon.
HOLD:Weexpectthetotalreturnonthestockwillbebetween0%to20%overa12to18monthhorizon.
SELL:Weexpectthetotalreturnonthestockwillbelessthan0%overa12to18monthhorizon.
7
com.
hkJohnMulcahy—HeadofResearch(852)36986889johnmul@chinastock.
com.
hkOctober31,2013Allaroundthehouses—#7ContractedsalesmomentumtocontinueKeyview:MajorHongKong-listeddeveloperswillstarttoannounceOctobercontractedsalesnumbersinthefirstandsecondweekofNovember.
WeexpectLongfor(0960HK,BUY)andKaisa(1638.
HK;BUY)toseesequentialgrowthincontractedsalesinOcto-ber.
Kaisaisscheduledtolaunch400unitsofitsShenzhenYueFengprojecttoday(October31st).
Accordingtoourchannelcheck,theprojecthasattractedover5,000visitorssinceOctober26thwithinwhichcloseto500buyershaveexpressedinterest.
WeestimatetheprojectaloneshouldgenerateapproximatelyRMB1bn,orcloseto50%ofitsaveragemonthly,ofcontractedsales.
WebelievemostofthecontractedsalesfromthisprojectshouldbeincludedinreportedcontractedsalesinNovember.
ReiterateBuy.
KeyNews:XiJinping'scommentsonrealestate,socialhousingandsuppliesarethekey.
Propertytaxissaidtobeontheagendaforthe3rdPlenarymeeting.
ChinaVanke(000002.
SZ)tobecomethelargestshareholderinHuishangBankRealestatemarketperformance:WeeklytransactionvolumewasmaintainedatahighlevelinthelastweekofOctoberwithaggregatevolumein22citiesup4%week-on-week(WoW).
Daliansawthestrong-estgrowthwitha48%WoWincreaseinGFAsold,whileBeijingshowedthelargestde-clinewitha19%WoWdropasbuyerswaitedonthesidelineafterannouncementofthe"sevenrules".
BothASPandinventorylevelremainedrelativelystable.
Shareperformance:SharepriceofChinapropertynameswerelargelyflatduringpastweek,withCountryGarden(2007HK,NR,-4.
7%)andLongfor(960HK,NR,-3.
1%)beingtheworstper-formers.
BestperformersareGloriousProperty(845HK,NR)andSOHOChina(410HK,Hold).
BestperformersoverthepastweekwereShuiOnLand(272HK,NR)andSunac(1918HK,NR).
ChinaPropertySector2Keynews/updatesXiJinping'scommentontherealestatesector—socialhousingandsuppliesremainedthekey:AccordingtoaXinhua.
netreport,ChairmanXiJinpinghostedagroupstudysessiononOctober29thwithafocusonChina'ssocialhousingschemeandhousingsupplysystem.
ChairmanXiJinpingstressedthat1){Chinashould)acceleratethedevelopmentandincreaseofhousingsupplyasitisanimportanttaskinfulfillingthebasichousingneedsofthegeneralpublic;2)tourgegovernmentatalllevelstoestablishasocialhousingschemeandasystematicwaytoincreasesupply;and3)toestablishpublicrentalhousingandlow-renthousingasthemajorformsofsocialhousing.
Chair-manXialsostressedthatthereisaneedto:1)balancebetweenpublicandprivatesector;2)toestablishacomprehensivesystemthatincorporatestoolsonland,financing,andtaxationfronttoattractmorepartiestosocialhousingdevelopment;and3)toestablishafairdistributionandmanage-mentsystemforthesocialhousingscheme.
Ourview:WebelievethisistherightdirectiontotackleChina'shousingissuesandisverypositivetomarketsentimentonChinapropertystocks.
Previously,themarket'sconcernonChinarealestatepolicieswaslargelycenteredaroundfearofmoreadministrativemeasures.
SubsequenttoBeijing'ssevenrulestopromote"Self-usecommodityproperties",marketwasworriedthattherecouldbeafloodofnewsupplythatcouldcrashpropertyprices.
WecontinuetobelieveChinawillfollowamoremarket-orientedapproachwithmulti-layerofsupplies,withregardtoherapproachfortherealestatemarket,whichissupportiveofshareprice,inourview.
http://news.
xinhuanet.
com/politics/2013-10/30/c_117937412.
htmPropertytaxsaidtobeincludedindiscussionduringthe3rdPlenarymeeting:AccordingtoYicai,quotingunnamedsource,propertytaxexpansionhasbeenincludedintodiscussionduringthe3rdPlenarymeetingonNovember.
Accordingtothereport,notonlyregionalcoverage,thedepthandscopeofcoveragecouldalsobesubjectedtodiscussion.
Ourview:Webelievetheexpansionofpropertytaxhasbeenmoreorlessintheprice,theonlysurprisesbeingonscopeandcoverage—i.
e.
taxrate.
Wecontinuetobelievethatthepropertytaxschemeshouldcontinuetoprotectfirst-timebuyerdemand.
Asteeptaxrate—i.
e.
over1.
5%-ishighlyunlikely.
http://house.
stockstar.
com/IG2013103000001385.
shtmlChinaVanke(000002.
SZ)investedinHuishangBank:ChinaVanke(000002.
SZ),China'slargestrealestatecompany,willinvestabout$419millioninHuishangBanktobecomeitsbiggestshareholderafterthebankgetslistedinHongKong,.
HuishangBankplanstohaveitsIPOonHongKongExchangeandClearingLimitedonNovember12andtheIPOpricewillbebetweenHK$3.
47($0.
45)toHK$3.
88pershareandthat2.
61billionshareswillbeissuedintotal.
http://www.
globaltimes.
cn/NEWS/tabid/99/ID/821223/Vanke-to-become-biggest-shareholder-in-Huishang-Bank.
aspx3Figure4:LandbankexposuretocitieswithhighpropertypricegrowthSource:Companydata,CGIHKR4Figure5:BeijingweeklytransactionFigure6:ShanghaiweeklytransactionSource:CGIHKResearchSource:CGIHKResearchFigure7:TianjinweeklytransactionFigure8:ShenzhenweeklytransactionSource:CGIHKResearchSource:CGIHKResearchFigure9:GuangzhouweeklytransactionFigure10:NingboWeeklytransactionSource:CGIHKResearchSource:CGIHKResearch5Figure11:ShenyangweeklytransactionFigure12:FuzhouweeklytransactionSource:CGIHKResearchSource:CGIHKResearchFigure13:HangzhouweeklytransactionFigure14:NanjingweeklytransactionSource:CGIHKResearchSource:CGIHKResearchFigure15:ChengduweeklytransactionFigure16:ChangshaWeeklytransactionSource:CGIHKResearchSource:CGIHKResearch6DISCLAIMERForprivateperusalonly.
Thisreport(includinganyinformationattached)isissuedbyChinaGalaxyInternationalSecurities(HongKong)Co.
,Limited,oneofthesubsidiariesoftheChinaGalaxyInternationalFinancialHoldingsLimited,toindividualaddresseewhethertheyarepro-fessionalinvestor,institutionalclientorotherwise,ingoodfaithfromsourcesbelievedtobereliablebutnorepresentationorwarranty(expresslyorimplied)ismadeastotheiraccuracy,correctnessand/orcompleteness.
Whereanypartoftheinformation,opinionsoresti-matescontainedhereinreflectsthepersonalviewsandopinionsoftheanalystwhopreparedthisreport,suchviewsandopinionsmaynotcorrespondtothepublishedviewofChinaGalaxyInternationalFinancialHoldingsLimitedandanyofitssubsidiaries.
Thisreportshallnotbeconstruedasanoffer,invitationorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecuritiesofthecompanyorcompaniesreferredtoherein.
Allopinionsandestimatesreflectthejudgmentoftheanalystonthedateofthisreportandaresubjecttochangewithoutnotice.
PleasetakenotethatmembercompaniesofChinaGalaxyInternationalFinancialHoldingsLimited(includingbutnotlimitedtoChinaGalaxyInternationalSecurities(HongKong)Co.
,Ltd)and/ortheirdirectors,officers,agentsandemployees("theRelevantParties")mayhaveaninterestinsecuritiesofthecompanyorcompaniesreferredtointhisreport.
TheRelevantPartiesherebydisclaimanyoftheirliabilitiesaris-ingfromtheinaccuracy,incorrectnessandincompletenessofthisreportanditsattachment(s)and/oranyactionoromissionmadeinreli-ancethereof.
Accordingly,thisreportmustbereadinconjunctionwiththisdisclaimer.
COPYRIGHTRESERVEDChinaGalaxyInternationalSecurities(HongKong)Co.
Limited,CENo.
AXM459,Room3501-3507,35/F,CoscoTower,GrandMillenniumPlaza,183Queen'sRoadCentral,SheungWan,HongKong.
Generalline:3698-6888.
AnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimarilyresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreport,inwholeorinpart,certifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuercoveredinthisreport:(1)alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubject,securi-tiesorissuer;and(2)nopartofhisorhercompensationwas,is,orwillbe,directlyorindirectly,relatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbytheanalystinthisreport.
Besides,theanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhis/herassociates(asdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission)(1)havedealtinortradedinthestock(s)coveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport;(2)willdealinortradeinthestock(s)coveredinthisresearchreportthreebusinessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport;(3)serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreport;and(4)haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreport.
ExplanationonEquityRatingsBUY:Weexpectthetotalreturnonthestocktoexceed20%overa12to18monthhorizon.
HOLD:Weexpectthetotalreturnonthestockwillbebetween0%to20%overa12to18monthhorizon.
SELL:Weexpectthetotalreturnonthestockwillbelessthan0%overa12to18monthhorizon.
7
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