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NRELisanationallaboratoryoftheU.
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ContractNo.
DE-AC36-08GO28308MarineHydrokineticEnergySiteIdentificationandRankingMethodologyPartI:WaveEnergyLeviKilcherandRobertThresherTechnicalReportNREL/TP-5000-66038October2016NRELisanationallaboratoryoftheU.
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WA152001TechnicalReportNREL/TP-5000-66038October2016NOTICEThisreportwaspreparedasanaccountofworksponsoredbyanagencyoftheUnitedStatesgovernment.
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iiiThisreportisavailableatnocostfromtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL)atwww.
nrel.
gov/publications.
AcknowledgementsThisworkwouldnotbepossiblewithouttheinputofwaveenergyexpertsfromindustry,academia,andnationallaboratories.
Inparticular,thankstoReenstLesemannandPukhaLenee-BluhmatColumbiaPowerTechnologies;WilliamStabyatResoluteMarineEnergy;TimMundonandRahulShendureatOscillaPower;CharlesVinickatEcosphereTechnologies;BelindaBatten,DanHellin,andBrianPolagyeattheNorthwestNationalMarineRenewableEnergyCenter;LuisVega,RichardRocheleau,andPatrickCrossattheHawaiiNaturalEnergyInstitute;JasonBuschandMattSandersattheOregonWaveEnergyTrust;JoshAhmannatParametrix;WilliamTomanatCaliforniaPolytechnicStateUniversity;SimonGeerlofsandZhaoqingYangatthePacificNorthwestNationalLaboratory;VincentNearyandAnnieDallmanatSandiaNationalLaboratory;BrysonRobertsonattheUniversityofVictoria;HeidiTinnesand,OwenRoberts,RobiRobichaud,JochemWeber,andJasonCotrellattheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory;andJoelClineattheU.
S.
DepartmentofEnergy.
Thanksespeciallytooursponsor,theU.
S.
DepartmentofEnergy,forfundingthisworkundercontractDE-AC36-08GO28308.
ivThisreportisavailableatnocostfromtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL)atwww.
nrel.
gov/publications.
AbbreviationsandAcronymskWhkilowatt-hourLCOElevelizedcostofenergyMCDAMulti-CriteriaDecisionAnalysisMHKmarinehydrokineticMWmegawattNNMRECNorthwestNationalMarineRenewableEnergyCenterREFSSARenewableEnergyFacilitySuitabilityStudyAreasREPARenewableEnergyPermitAreasU.
S.
DOEU.
S.
DepartmentofEnergyWECwaveenergyconverterWPDwavepowerdensityvThisreportisavailableatnocostfromtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL)atwww.
nrel.
gov/publications.
ExecutiveSummaryMarinehydrokineticenergyisapromisingandgrowingpieceoftherenewableenergysectorthatoffershighpredictabilityandadditionalenergysourcesforadiversifiedenergyeconomy.
ThisreportinvestigatesthemarketopportunitiesforwaveenergyalongtheU.
S.
coastlines.
Itispartoneofatwo-partinvestigationintotheUnitedStates'twolargestmarinehydrokineticresources(waveandtidal).
Waveenergytechnologyisstillanemergingformofrenewableenergyforwhichlarge-scalegrid-connectedprojectcostsarecurrentlypoorlydefined.
Ideally,devicedesignerswouldliketoknowtheresourceconditionsateconomicalprojectsitessotheycanoptimizedevicedesigns.
Ontheotherhand,projectdevelopersneeddetaileddevicecostdatatoidentifysiteswhereprojectsareeconomical.
Thatis,devicedesignandsitingare,tosomeextent,acoupledproblem.
Thisworkdescribesamethodologyforidentifyinglikelydeploymentlocationsbasedonasetofcriteriathatwaveenergyexpertsinindustry,academia,andnationallaboratoriesagreearelikelytobeimportantfactorsforalltechnologytypes.
Themethodologyisamulti-criteriadecisionanalysisthatusessixcriteriatoidentifylikelydeploymentlocations:Resourcedensity(wavepowerdensity)MarketsizeEnergyprice(anestimateofavoidedenergycostinthemarket)DistancetotransmissionShippingcostWaterdepth.
Dataforeachcriterionwerecollectedfromarangeofsources,includingtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory'sMHKAtlas(http://maps.
nrel.
gov/mhk_atlas)andtheU.
S.
EnergyInformationAdministration(http://eia.
gov).
Thisworkgroupsthedataforthesixcriteriaintolocalesthataredefinedasthesmallerofeitherthelocaltransmissiongridorastateboundary.
TheformerappliestoU.
S.
islands(e.
g.
,Hawaii,AmericanSamoa)andruralvillages(e.
g.
,inAlaska);thelatterappliestostatesinthecontiguousUnitedStates.
Thesedataarethenscoredfrom0to10accordingtoscoringfunctionsthatweredevelopedwithinputfromwaveenergyindustryandacademicoceanenergyexperts.
Thescoresareaggregatedusingasimpleproductmethodthatincludesaweightingfactorforeachcriterion.
Thisworkpresentstwoweightingscenarios:along-termscenariothatdoesnotincludeenergypriceandashort-termscenariothatdoesincludeenergyprice.
Theaggregatedscoresarethenusedtoproducerankedlistsoflikelydeploymentlocales.
Resultsfromtheshort-termscenarioindicatelocationswherewaveenergyislikelytobedeployedfirst.
Thelong-termscenariolooksbeyondthenextfewdecadestoatimewhentheindustryhasmaturedandthecostsofwaveenergyapproachparitywithothertechnologies,andlow-carbonelectricityproductionbecomesahigherpriority.
Atthattime,energypriceisexpectedtobealess-criticalprojectsitingcriteria.
viThisreportisavailableatnocostfromtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL)atwww.
nrel.
gov/publications.
Inbothscenarios,HawaiiandthePacificNorthwest(NorthernCalifornia,Oregon,andWashington)rankatthetopofthelists.
Hawaiirankshighestintheshort-termscenariobecauseithashighenergycosts.
Inthelong-termscenario,Oregonrankshighestbecauseithasalargemarketandanenergeticresource.
SeveralEastCoaststatesandPuertoRicoarealsoidentifiedaspotentialwaveenergydeploymentsitesiftechnologicalinnovationsmakeitpossibletoefficientlygenerateelectricityfromthemodestresourcethere.
Therearealsoseveralsmall-marketsitesinAlaskaandU.
S.
PacificIslandsthatrankparticularlywellintheshort-termanalysisduetotheirhighenergyprices.
Theselocationsmayrepresentopportunitiestodemonstrateeconomicalwaveenergyconversionasastepping-stonetolargermarkets.
Severalfactorsthatwillaffectwaveprojectcostsandsitinghavenotbeenconsideredhere—includingpermittingconstraints,conflictinguse,seasonalresourcevariability,extremeeventlikelihood,anddistancetoports—becauseconsistentdataareunavailableortechnology-independentscoringcouldnotbeidentified.
Astheindustrycontinuestomatureandconvergearoundasubsetofdevicearchetypeswithwell-definedcosts,morepreciseinvestigationsofprojectsitingthatincludethesefactorswillbepossible.
Fornow,theseresultsprovideahigh-levelguidepointingtotheregionswheremarketsandresourcewillonedaysupportcommercialwaveenergyprojects.
viiThisreportisavailableatnocostfromtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL)atwww.
nrel.
gov/publications.
TableofContents1Introduction.
11.
1Background11.
2Approach.
22MethodologyandData42.
1ResourceDensity.
62.
2MarketSize62.
2.
1Demand72.
2.
2TotalWaveResource72.
2.
3MarketSize:SummaryandScoring.
82.
3EnergyPrice.
82.
4Range.
92.
5WaterDepth102.
6ShippingCost.
113Results.
133.
1Long-TermModel.
133.
2Short-TermModel.
164Discussion.
184.
1PacificNorthwest.
194.
2CentralandSouthernCalifornia.
234.
3HawaiiandPacificIslandTerritories.
234.
4Alaska.
245Conclusions26References.
27viiiThisreportisavailableatnocostfromtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL)atwww.
nrel.
gov/publications.
ListofFiguresFigure1.
WaveresourcemapalongtheU.
S.
WestCoast.
4Figure2.
WPDscoringfunction.
LocationswithWPDlessthan5kW/mareexcludedfromtheanalysis.
ThemaximumscoreisassignedwhereWPD>30kW/m.
5Figure3.
Marketscoresincreaselogarithmicallyfrom300kWto4gigawatts8Figure4.
Energypricescores.
9Figure5.
Scoringfordistancebetweenlocaleandresource(range)10Figure6.
Waterdepthscoringfunction11Figure7.
Shippingcostscores12Figure8.
ScoringmapalongtheSouthernOregoncoast.
20Figure9.
MapofscoresattheOregon-Washingtonborder(theColumbiaRiver)21Figure10.
MapofscoresinNorthernCalifornia.
22Figure11.
SouthernCaliforniascoremapnorthofPointConception.
23Figure12.
Oahu,Hawaiiscoremap.
24ListofTablesTable1.
OriginPort,IntermediatePort,andParametersoftheShippingCostModelforEachRegion.
.
.
.
11Table2.
RankingofWaveEnergyLocalesfortheLong-TermScoringModel.
15Table3.
RankingofWaveEnergyLocalesfortheShort-termScoringModel.
17Table4.
RegionalSummaryComparingLong-TermandShort-TermAnalyses181ThisreportisavailableatnocostfromtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL)atwww.
nrel.
gov/publications.
1IntroductionInthemodernera,withdemandforelectricitygrowingalongsidetheconsequencesposedbyclimatechange,thereisincreasingneedforadiverseportfolioofrenewableenergysources.
Establishedrenewableenergytechnologies,suchaswindandsolar,havethepotentialtomeetalargeportionoftheUnitedStates'energydemand,butasthey'vescaledupthey'vebeguntoencounterintegrationchallengesthatsuggestaneedforenergystorage,aswellassocietalchallengessuchascompetinglanduseandenvironmentalimpactconcerns.
Marinehydrokinetic(MHK)energyalsohasthepotentialtocontributesignificantlytothenation'senergyneeds,and—becauseitislocatedatseaandcanbeforecastwithgreateraccuracy—maynothavethesamechallenges.
MHKenergycanhelptodiversifythenation'senergyportfolioandmakethenation'sfuturehigh-penetrationrenewableenergysystemmorerobustandreliable(Maietal.
2012).
Thisreportisthefirstinatwo-partseriesonmethodsforidentifyingandrankingcommercialMHKdeploymentlocations.
Itisfocusedonwaveenergysiteidentification,anditscompanionreportfocusesontidalenergysiteidentification(Kilcher,Thresher,andTinnesand2016).
EachofthesereportsutilizespublicallyavailabledatafortheU.
S.
coastlinetoprovideahigh-levelassessmentofthepotentialforMHKdeploymentintheUnitedStates.
1.
1BackgroundWaveenergyiscurrentlyatacriticalmiddlestageofthetechnologydevelopmentprocess.
Arespectedbodyofliteratureexiststhatdescribestheessentialphysics,classifiesdesigntypes,andquantifiestheresourcepotential(e.
g.
,Bedard2008;HagermanandScott2011;Stopaetal.
2013).
Severaldevicedesignshaveperformedfull-andmid-scaledemonstrationsthathavegeneratedelectricityintheopenocean.
Incollaborationwithregionalorganizationsanduniversities,theU.
S.
DepartmentofEnergy(DOE)hasestablishedtestcenterswheredevicedesignscanbetestedinthemostenergeticlocationswiththefullarrayofmonitoringinfrastructurethatisneededfortechnologyrefinement(BattenandPolagye2013,DeVisseretal.
2013).
Thesetestcentersarecriticalforengineeringthenextgenerationofwaveenergyconverters(WECs)andprovidingthedataoncost,performance,andreliabilitynecessarytogainacceptancefromcommercialinvestors.
Thenextstepinthetechnologydevelopmentlifecycleisthedeploymentofcommercial-scalearrayswithcapacitiesgreaterthan10megawatts(MW).
Theselargerarraysareexpectedtogreatlyreducecostrelativetodemonstrationprojectsandstartthepathtowardcostparitywithothersourcesoflow-carbongenerationthroughstandardization,learningbydoing,andincreasedscale.
Mirroringexperiencefromthewindindustry,whereturbinedesignshaveevolvedforspecificclassesofwindspeedsandturbulenceconditions,DOEissupportinganefforttodefineawaveclassificationschemethatestablishesstandardsforclassifyingcriticalwavesitefactorsandconditions(InternationalElectrotechnicalCommission,2015,2011).
ForWECs,acriticaldesignconsiderationislikelytoberelatedtoperiodicstormsthatgenerateextremeseastatesthathavethepotentialtodamagedevices.
Inordertoengineerefficient,low-cost,robustdevicesthatcangaincommercialacceptance,thewaveenergyindustryneedsamoredetailedunderstandingoftheextremeconditionsWECdeviceswillencounter.
Howmanyroguewaveswillawavedeviceexpecttoseeinadecade2ThisreportisavailableatnocostfromtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL)atwww.
nrel.
gov/publications.
HowmanyextremestormsHowdoesthemagnitudeoftheforcesintheseconditionscomparetooperationalconditionsHowmuchadditionalstructuralmaterialisneededfordevicestosurvivethemDodesignchangesforreliabilityreduceefficiencyHowdotheseconsiderationscontributetothelevelizedcostofenergy(LCOE)ofwavetechnologyDOE-fundednationallaboratories,includingtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryandSandiaNationalLaboratories,aredevelopingsimulationtoolsthathelptoanswerthesequestionbypredictingperformanceandfatigueloadingonwavedevicesinoperationalandextremeseastates(Ruehletal.
2014);however,thesetoolsrequiredatathatdefinethefrequencyandintensityoftheevents.
ThewaveclassificationschemeisdesignedtohelpWECdesignerstargetarangeofoperationalandextremeseastatesthatexistinspecificlocations.
Theclassificationschemewillestablishaframeworkformorerapidcommercializationofwavetechnologyasalldeviceswillnothavetobedesignedforallconditions.
InorderfortheseeffortstobeusefultoU.
S.
technologydevelopers,theyrequiredetailedknowledgeofthetypicalambientandextremeseastatesthatexistatlikelycommercialwavesitesalongtheU.
S.
coastline.
Thisreportisintendedtohelpidentifythosesites.
1.
2ApproachTheobjectiveofthisworkistoprovideaconsistentmethodologyforassessingwaveenergyopportunitiesalongtheentireU.
S.
coastline,includingtheEastandWestCoastsofthecontiguousUnitedStates,Alaska,Hawaii,andallU.
S.
territories.
Acrossthisdomainawiderangeoffactorscontributestoprojectviability,includingresourcecharacteristics;marketconditions;regulatoryrequirements;manufacturingcapacity;andportstosupportinstallation,operations,andmaintenance.
Thediversemixofthesefactors,theircomplexrelationships,andtheevolvingstateofwaveenergytechnologyaddtothechallengeofidentifyingthemostsuitablelocationsforwavetechnologydeployment.
Fortunately,therehasalreadybeensignificantworkinthisdomain,especiallyintheregionswherewaveenergyisconsideredtobeapromisingsourceofrenewableenergy(Geerlofsetal.
2011;PorterandPhillips2016;"StateofOregonTerritorialSeaPlanPart5:UseoftheTerritorialSeafortheDevelopmentofRenewableEnergyFacilitiesorOtherRelatedStructures,Equipment,orFacilities,"2013;Stopaetal.
2013;VanCleveetal.
2013;Vega2010).
TheobjectiveofthisworkistoprovideanationwidecontextforthesestudiesandtobringU.
S.
locationsnotconsideredinthoseworksintothediscussion.
Thisanalysisisorganizedinto"locales,"definedhereinassub-regionsorsitesthatareeitherseparatedbylegalboundaries(e.
g.
,states)orareanisolatedelectricalgrid(e.
g.
,aHawaiianIslandorruralAlaskanvillage).
Thismulti-faceteddefinitionallowstherankingtoincludethediversityofMHKopportunitiesthatexistinU.
S.
waters.
Thisworkfocusesonidentifyingandrankinglocalesindependentofthetechnologyorsite-specificdetailswhilestillmaintainingquantitativescoringcriteriathatproducemeaningfulrankingsofMHKopportunities.
Itdoesnotconsiderthepermitting,alternate-use,orzoningconsiderationsthatmaybeimportantwithinalocale.
TheintentistofacilitatediscussiononMHKopportunitieswithstakeholdersandprovidecontextformoredetailedsite-specificinvestigationsbyprojectdevelopersandotherorganizations(e.
g.
,Geerlofsetal.
2011;Stopaet3ThisreportisavailableatnocostfromtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL)atwww.
nrel.
gov/publications.
al.
2013;VanCleveetal.
2013;Vega2010).
Throughoutthisanalysis,considerableeffortismadetoconsidertherangeoflocaletypesinaconsistent,inclusive,andjudiciousmanner.
Themethodologyisdesignedtoranksitesbasedonhigh-leveltechnicalandeconomicfactorsthatareimportanttocurrentandfutureMHKtechnologyandprojectdevelopment.
Towardthisend,thisworkpresentstwosetsofresults:1)along-termscenario,and2)ashort-termscenario.
Theshort-termscenarioincludesthelocale'senergypriceasascoringcriterion.
Thisisimportantintheshorttermbecausewaveenergyisstillrelativelyexpensivecomparedtoothertypesofgeneration,andthereforelocaleswithhigherenergypriceswillbemoreattractivetoprojectdevelopers.
Thelong-termscenariodoesnotincludeenergyprice.
Thisisbasedontheexpectationthatwaveenergycostswillapproachparitywithotherformsofgenerationoverthenext10to20years,andlow-carbonelectricityproductionbecomesahigherpriority.
Inthatcase,energypricewillbecomealess-criticalfactorinprojectsiting.
Theshort-andlong-termscenarios,therefore,providecomplementaryperspectivesthatidentifymarketopportunitiesandsuggesthowthoseopportunitiesmightevolveasthetechnologymaturesoverthenextfewdecades.
4ThisreportisavailableatnocostfromtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL)atwww.
nrel.
gov/publications.
2MethodologyandDataThissectionprovidesadetaileddescriptionofthedataandmethodsusedinthisreport.
AllcoastalU.
S.
statesandU.
S.
territoriesareincludedintheanalysis.
Atthesmallestlevel,alocaleisaruralisolatedpowergridwithmeanannualgenerationofatleast20kilowatts(kW)(e.
g.
,ruralAlaskanvillagesorPacificIslandcommunities).
Atthelargestlevel,alocaleisanentirestatecoastline(e.
g.
,Oregon,Washington,Florida,Georgia,etc.
).
California'slongcoastlineisdividedintothreelocales:SouthernCaliforniaissouthof35.
8N(Monterey-SanLuisObispocountyborder),NorthernCaliforniaisnorthofPt.
Arena(38.
95N),andCentralCaliforniaspansthedistancebetweenthem.
Figure1.
WaveresourcemapalongtheU.
S.
WestCoast.
Wavepowerdensityiscoloredyellow(low)tomauve(high).
Alternatingblueandgreencontoursforeachlocaleindicatetheboundaryalongwhichtotalwaveenergyiscalculated.
Reddotsarecoastaltransmission/distributionsubstations.
Thethinbluelineindicatesthe200-misobath.
ThenumberedcyanboxesindicatelocationsofFigures8-11.
Wehavechosennottodivideotherstatesintosmallerregionstoavoidrepeatingtheworkofotherswhohaveperformedmoredetailedstate-specificwavesiteidentification(e.
g.
,Stopaetal.
2013;VanCleveetal.
2013).
Thismethodologyproducedadatabaseof100localesdistributed5ThisreportisavailableatnocostfromtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL)atwww.
nrel.
gov/publications.
throughoutthePacific,alongtheU.
S.
eastandwestcoastlines,withintheCaribbean,andalongtheAlaskancoast.
Basedonreviewsofpreviouswork,asearchofpublicallyavailabledata,andasurveyofindustryexperts,asetofkeytechnologyandmarketdriverswasdevelopedtoestimatesuitabilityforearlydeploymentofwaveenergytechnology.
Whileotherfactorsandcriteriaareimportantinselectingbetweenparticularlocations,thekeycriteriaforsiteassessmentconsideredhereare:ResourcedensityMarketsizeEnergyprice(short-termscenarioonly)DistancetopointofinterconnectionWaterdepthShippingcost.
Figure2.
WPDscoringfunction.
LocationswithWPDlessthan5kW/mareexcludedfromtheanalysis.
ThemaximumscoreisassignedwhereWPD>30kW/m.
AMulti-CriteriaDecisionAnalysis(MCDA)frameworkisusedtoscoreeachofthesecriteria,createacompositescore,andgeneraterankingsofwavelocalesandtidalsites(VanCleveetal.
2013;Wangetal.
2009).
Eachofthesecriteriaisscoredonascalefrom0to10andassignedaweighttosettherelativeimportanceofeachcriterion.
Thecompositescoreiscomputedasaproductoftheweightedcriterionasfollows:=.
(1)6ThisreportisavailableatnocostfromtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL)atwww.
nrel.
gov/publications.
Where,andarethescoresandweights,respectively,foreachcriterionateachlocale.
''denotesaproductoftheweightedscores(i.
e.
Notethatthetotalcompositescoreforasite,,isbetween0and10iftheweightsarenormalizedsuchthat,=1(Wangetal.
2009).
Thedataandsoftwaretools(Pythonpackageandscripts)usedtoscoreandranksitesinthisanalysisareavailablefordownloadfromtheMHKDataRepository(submissionid154i).
ThesecompositescoresareusedtoranksitesintermsoftheirsuitabilityforearlyMHKtechnologydeployment.
Detailedinformationonthedatasourcesandscoringrationaleforthelong-termmodelforeachofthecriteriaareprovidedbelow.
Resourcedensityandmarketsizecriteriaareindicatorsofthetechnicalandcommercialviabilityofapotentialprojectlocation.
Higherresourcedensityandlargermarketsarelikelytobemoreattractivetoprojectdevelopers,andthesecriteriaarethereforescoredpositively.
Theshippingcost,distancetoresource,andwaterdepthcriteriaareindicatorsfortotalprojectcost.
Siteswithlargercostsareconsideredlessattractive,andthesecriteriaarethereforescoredlower.
2.
1ResourceDensityWavepowerdensity(WPD)istheannualaverageincidentwavepowerpersegmentofcoastline,inunitsofkW/m(InternationalElectrotechnicalCommission2011).
SeveralsourceswereusedtoobtaintheWPDestimatesforthisstudy.
TheWPDestimatesformostlocalesarefromtheDOE-funded2011ElectricPowerResearchInstitutestudy"MappingandAssessmentoftheUnitedStatesOceanWaveEnergyResource"(HagermanandScott2011).
TheseWPDestimatesarebasedona51-monthWaveWatchIIIhind-cast.
EstimatesofWPDatthePacificIslandterritoriesthatwerenotincludedintheHagermanandScottreportwereestimatedfromtheU.
S.
ArmyCorps'WaveInformationStudiesdatabase,whichalsoutilizedaWaveWatchIIIhind-castformorewidelydispersedlocations(Hansonetal.
2009).
WPDisscoredlinearlyfrom0to30kW/mandlocalswithresourceslessthan5kW/mwereexcludedfromtheanalysis.
Theuppervalue,30kW/m,isselectedbecauseitisanindustrystandardvaluefora"fullyenergeticsite"(VanCleveetal.
2013).
Thethresholdvalueof5kW/mwasselectedbasedonpriorworkinthisareaandfromindustryfeedback,whichsuggeststhat10-15kW/misanappropriateminimumthresholdforwaveenergysitinginthenextfewdecades.
Thevalueof5kW/misusedtoextendtheanalysistolongertimescaleswhenlowerpowersitesmightbecomeeconomicallyviableandtoconsiderlocationsthatwouldbeexcludedfromotherstudiesbutmayhaveotherwisefavorablesitingconsiderations.
Thisresourcescoringfunctionisagnostictotechnology-specificdetails,emphasizesthevalueoflargerresource,andexcludessiteswithaverylowresource.
2.
2MarketSizeWaveenergymarketsizeisthemaximumamountofwaveenergythatcanbesoldinagivenlocale.
Thisislimitedbytwofactors:1)themaximumpotentialdemandforwaveenergywithinthelocale,and2)thetotalwaveenergyavailablenearthelocale.
Therefore,marketsizeiscalculatedasthesmallerofthetwoquantities:demandandtotalwaveresource.
ihttp://mhkdr.
openei.
org/submissions/1547ThisreportisavailableatnocostfromtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL)atwww.
nrel.
gov/publications.
2.
2.
1DemandLocale-specificestimatesofmaximumpotentialdemandforwaveenergydonotcurrentlyexistanddependonarangeofhighlyuncertaineconomicandpoliticalfactors.
Instead,thecurrentloadofalocale'selectricgridisusedasaproxyforpotentialdemandforwaveenergy.
Thisisbasedontheassumptionthatlocaleswithlargerelectricgridswillbecapableofsupportinglargerwaveprojects,whichareattractiveforeconomyofscalebenefitsandcouldleadtoreducedLCOE.
Thisapproachisreasonablebecausetheuncertaintyassociatedwithitissmallcomparedtotherangeofloadsconsideredhere.
Forexample,a600-kWruralAlaskanvillageisunlikelytosuddenlycreateinfrastructurethatwillgeneratedemandfor50MWofwavegenerationcapacity.
Furthermore,therankingisbasedontherelativeattractivenessofU.
S.
MHKsites,andloadisareasonableproxyforrelativedemandofanyeconomicalenergysource.
Loaddatawerecompiledfromthefollowingsources:RuralAlaskancommunities:AlaskaEnergyAuthority'sPowerCostEqualization(PCE)report(2013PCEReport,2014)HawaiianIslands:HawaiianStateEnergyOfficeFactsandFigures(HawaiianStateEnergyOffice2014)PacificIslandsTerritories:VariousNRELtechnicalreportsandtheMarshallEnergycompanywebsite(Baring-Gould,Hunsberger,Visser,andVoss2011;Baring-Gould,Conrad,Haase,Hotchkiss,McNutt2011;Busche,Conrad,Funk,Kandt,McNutt2011;MarshallsEnergyCompany2013)ForallotherU.
S.
states,loaddataarefromtheU.
S.
EnergyInformationAdministration(RetailSalesofElectricity2013)ForeachCalifornialocale(Northern,Central,Southern),theEnergyInformationAdministrationtotalwasportionedbypopulation.
2.
2.
2TotalWaveResourceThetotalwavepowerwasestimatedfromtheWPDdata(HagermanandScott2011).
Becausethisdatasetdoesnotyetincludewaveenergydirectionality,weassumeomni-directionalwavepowerpropagatesinthemeanwavefluxdirection.
Wethencomputethetotaltheoreticalenergyasthefluxofthisvectorcrossingacontouraroundthesite,island,orcoastline(i.
e.
,sumofdot-productsaroundthelocale).
Thiscontouristakenasthenearerof20kmfromtransmissionsubstationsonthelocale'sgridorthe200-mdepthcontour.
Weusethis"vectordot-productmethod"—asopposedtosummingwaveenergymagnitude—becauseitprovidesaconservativeestimateoftotalavailablepowerthatisinsensitivetocontourdetails(wigglesandfolds).
Thetheoreticalestimateisthenmultipliedbya"knockdownfactor"of0.
5toobtainanestimateofthetotalpracticalresource.
Thisfactorismeanttoaccountfora)regionsthatwillbeexcludedfromdevelopmentandb)wavefarmefficiency.
Whilethevalueoftheknockdownfactorislikelytobehigh,itsprimarypurposeistoequalizethetotalresourceestimateswithdemandsothatthetwovariablescanbecomparedandusedasanestimateofrelativemarketsizeforcomparinglocales.
Sincetheaboveestimateofdemandisalsobiasedhigh,thevalueof0.
5fortheknockdownfactorisreasonable.
8ThisreportisavailableatnocostfromtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL)atwww.
nrel.
gov/publications.
2.
2.
3MarketSize:SummaryandScoringInsummary,wecomputethetotalpracticalresourceforeachlocalethencomparethistothepotentialdemand(load)forwaveenergyatthatlocale.
Thesmallerofthetwovaluesistakenasanestimateofmarketsize.
Ingeneral,thisworkisdesignedtofavorlocaleswithlargemarketsbecauseeconomiesofscalearehighlyattractivetoMHKprojectdevelopers.
Ontheotherhand,thescoringisintendedtoincludesmallmarketsthathavehighlyfavorablesiteconditions,whichmaybevaluableasearlycommercialprojects.
Toaccountforthesefactorsanduncertainties,wescoremarketsizelogarithmicallyfrom300kWto5gigawatts(Figure3).
Thisfunctioncapturesthelogarithmicdistributionofthemarketsconsideredinthisanalysisandproducesascoringthatismoresensitiveforsmallmarkets(e.
g.
,8)betweenMorroBayandAvilaBeach(i.
e.
,westofSanLuisObispo).
Allofthesesitesareparticularlyattractivefortheiraccesstoalargegrid.
Vandenberg,inparticular,isattractivebecausethewaterstherearecontrolledbytheAirForce.
4.
3HawaiiandPacificIslandTerritoriesHawaiihasagoodwaveenergyresourceandasignificantdemandforwaveenergy.
Hawaiiisparticularlyattractiveasawaveenergydevelopmentlocationintheshort-termscenariobecauseofthehighenergypricesontheislands.
Evenwithoutbringingthisfactorintoaccount,thenorthshoreofthefourlargestHawaiianIslandsallrankwellinthisanalysis.
MoredetailedresourcemapsandanalysisofdevelopmentopportunitieshavebeencompletedbylocalstakeholdersandtheUniversityofHawaii'sHawaiiNationalMarineRenewableEnergyCenter(Stopaetal.
2013;Vega2010).
AlloftheHawaiianIslandscould,theoretically,bepoweredbywaveenergy.
Acriticalissuefortheislands,however,isthefactthatthewaterdepthincreasesrapidlyawayfromtheislands'shores.
Kauai,Maui,andtheBigIslandallhavesimilarlyhighscores(>7.
5)alongtheirnorthernshoreline,whereenergeticwavesfromtheNorthPacificencountertheislandcoastlines.
Oahu,inparticular,scoreshighestamongtheislandsprimarilybecauseithasthelargestmarket(Figure12).
24ThisreportisavailableatnocostfromtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL)atwww.
nrel.
gov/publications.
Figure12.
Oahu,Hawaiiscoremap.
ThehighestrankingsiteforalloftheHawaiianIslandsisatthenortherntipofOahu(cyan).
ExistingnationalDataBuoyCenterbuoysandtheWaveEnergyTestSite(WETS)arelabeledinwhite.
ThefarPacificislargelyunexploredforwaveenergydevelopment.
Therearecurrentlynopublicreportsthatincludethewaveenergyresourceattheselocations.
TheresourcedatausedinthisreportwerecalculatedfromtheU.
S.
ArmyCorps'WaveInformationSystemsdatabase.
LiketheHawaiianIslands,thefarPacificterritorieshavehighenergypricesthatmaymakeshort-termdeploymentofwaveenergytechnologyeconomicallyfeasiblebeforeitisfeasibleinlargermarkets.
Moreworkisneededtoidentifytheinterestandconflictingusesthatexistintheseregionsforwaveenergy.
Siteassessmentsandfeasibilitystudieswouldbehelpfulinunderstandingthechallengesandopportunitiesthatexistintheselocations.
4.
4AlaskaThesoutherncoastlineofAlaskaholds51%ofthenation'swaveenergyresource,andtheBeringSeapossessesanother8%(HagermanandScott2011).
ThechallengeinAlaskaisconnectingthatvastresourcetoamarketthatcanutilizethese"strandedrenewables"(Johnsonetal.
2012).
TheclosesttheprimarypowergridofthestatecomestothisresourceisontheKenaiPeninsulasouthofAnchorage,wheretheWPDislessthan15kW/m.
TheAleutianChainandsoutheastAlaskabothhaveverylargeWPD,butdemandforenergyisrelativelylowthere.
ThoughitisunlikelythatwaveenergywillprovidesignificantpowertotheAlaskanRailbeltintheforeseeablefuture,thereareafewsmallcommunitiesalongtheAlaskancoastlinethatholdpromiseforwaveenergydevelopment.
LiketheHawaiianandPacificIslands,theseAlaskancommunitiesoftenhavehighenergypricesthatlifttheirrankingintheshort-termmodel.
FirstamongtheseisYakutat,whichhasagoodWPDof22kW/m.
TherehasalreadybeensomeprojectdevelopmentinYakutat,andthecommunityhasshowninterestinutilizingitswaveenergyresourcetopowertheireconomy.
Mostnotably,thelocalmunicipal-ownedutilityhasperformedupgradesoftheirtransmissionandprimarygenerationinfrastructuretofacilitateintegrationwithrenewables.
Yakutatishometoafishprocessingplantthathasstruggledtocompetewithprocessorsinothercommunitiesthathavelowerenergyprices.
Lookingatafutureinwhichwaveenergybeginstocompetewithtraditionalsourcesofelectricity,itisintriguingtoconsiderhowYakutatmightgrowandbetransformedbylow-costwaveenergy.
25ThisreportisavailableatnocostfromtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL)atwww.
nrel.
gov/publications.
Kodiak,Alaska—locatedonanislandofthesamename—isasomewhatlargercommunitythatisexposedtotheGulfofAlaska.
Itswaveresource,however,isapaltry9kW/maccordingtoexistingmodels.
However,giventhewidespacingbetweenwavebuoysforvalidatingmodelsinthisregion,itmaybevaluabletorefinethisestimatebymeasuringthewaveresourcenearKodiak.
SeveralotherAlaskancommunitiesmaybeviablewaveenergydeploymentsites,especiallywhenconsideringenergyprice(Table2).
However,theseallhaveeitherasmallerresourceorasmallerload,andtheyalsogenerallyhavehighershippingcosts.
TheAleutianChain,inparticular,isaregionwhereasomewhatlargermarket—byafewmegawatts—mightsuddenlymakeasiteveryattractivetowaveenergydevelopers.
Thisraisestheconceptofbuildingawavefarmalongsideinfrastructurethatwouldutilizethepower.
PotentialusesofAlaska'sstrandedrenewablesincludedatacenters,mining,smelting,fishprocessing,andalternativefuelproduction(Johnsonetal.
2012).
DatacentersareaparticularlyintriguingconceptconsideringthattheAleutianchainisatthenexuspointbetweenNorthAmerica,Europe,andEastAsiafortheplannedArcticFibreproject.
iiiThisregionhastheaddedbenefitofhavingsignificantpassivecoolingandoceanthermalenergyconversioncoolingopportunities.
Asthecostofalternativefuelproductioncontinuestodecreasecomparedtotraditionalfuels,itmaybecomefeasibletoexportthisgreenenergyontheglobalmarketaswellasutilizetheenergylocallyforseveralkeyindustriesincludingmining,smelting,andfishprocessing.
iiihttp://arcticfibre.
com26ThisreportisavailableatnocostfromtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL)atwww.
nrel.
gov/publications.
5ConclusionsThereisbroadconsensusacrossthewaveenergyindustrythatitiscrucialtocontinuetestinganddevelopingwaveenergyconversiontechnologiesattestcenterstorefineanddemonstratetheircommercialreadiness.
Astechnologiespassthisimportantsteppingstone,itwillbeimportanttohavesitesidentifiedandvettedforcommercialdeployment(MetoceanProceduresGuide2015).
ThisworkpresentsamethodologyforidentifyingthesesitesandapreliminaryrankingofU.
S.
sites.
Thisprovidesanationwidecontextforseveralpriorworksandworksinprogressthathavelookedatthisissueatregionalscales(Stopaetal.
2013;VanCleveetal.
2013;Vega2010).
ThefutureofwaveenergyintheUnitedStatesislikelytobecenteredinthePacificNorthwest.
OregonandNorthernCalifornia,inparticular,havevastwaveenergyresourcesandtransmission/distributioninfrastructurethatsuggestpromisingmarketopportunitiesaswaveenergytechnologymatures.
Bothofthesestatesalsohaverenewableportfoliostandardsthatmayhelpdrivedemand.
Oregoniscommittedto25%renewablesby2025,andCaliforniahasveryrecentlycommittedto50%by2030.
Thisworkhasnotconsideredtheregulatoryandcompeting-useissuesthatareofcriticalimportanceinsitingwaveenergyprojects.
Fishing,marineprotectedareas,endangeredspecies,data-cableroutes,surfing,andothersimilarconsiderationsareallimportantfactorsthatwillneedtobeaddressedaswaveenergyprojectsgetstarted.
Oregonhasbeenleadingthewayinworkingwithstakeholders—includingfishermanandregulators—toidentifysitesalongthestate'scoastlinethatarelikelytoseewaveenergydeployment.
GiventhatworkandOregon'spositionatthetopofthisanalysis,sitesidentifiedinPart5oftheOregonTerritorialSeaPlanareamongthemostattractivesitesintheUnitedStates.
TheLakesideNorthandCampRileasites,inparticular,performverywellinthisanalysisandhaveexistingdesignationsforwaveenergydevelopmentintheOregonTerritorialSeaPlan.
ThesesitesarealsolikelytobenefitfromtheresearchanddevelopmentthatwillbegeneratedatNNMREC'sPacificMarineEnergyCenterNorthEnergyTestSiteandtheproposedSouthEnergyTestSite.
Hawaiialsostandsoutasapremierregionwherewaveenergyconversionismostlikelytobecomeeconomical,especiallyintheshort-term.
Hawaiirecentlybecamethefirststateinthenationtocommittoa100%renewableportfoliostandard.
ThenextstepforMHKinHawaiiisworkingwithlocalstakeholderstoidentifysitesthathaveminimalconflictinguseconcerns.
Theislandsaresmall,andthedepththatissuitableforwaveenergytechnologyisanarrowstripnearthenorthshoreoftheislands'coastlines.
Thestate'srecentcommitmentto100%renewableenergyby2045isanaggressivecommitmentthatislikelytocreatedemandforwaveenergy.
AsincreasingnumbersofdevicesaretestedattheHawaiiWaveEnergyTestSite,earnestdebatesaboutthecompromisesnecessarytomeetthestate'sgoalsarelikelytoidentifywaveenergyasacriticalresource.
SeveralPacificIslandsandruralAlaskanlocations(e.
g.
,Yakutat)arealsoattractiveasshort-termmarkets,wherehighenergypricesmakewavetechnologydeploymentmoreattractivetoprojectdevelopers.
Theprimaryquestionattheselocationsiswhetherthedemandforenergyishighenoughtojustifyprojectdevelopmentcosts.
Thisrepresentsakeyopportunityformodestpublicinvestmenttoreducetheprojectdevelopmentbarrier:astheserelativelysmallprojectsdemonstratecommercialsuccess,theindustrywillbenefitgreatlyfromthetechnicalknowledgethatisgainedandtheincreasinglypositivepublicimagethatcomeswiththissuccess.
27ThisreportisavailableatnocostfromtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL)atwww.
nrel.
gov/publications.
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