D76G57Ebnb998.com

GREENSHOOTSINTHEEUROAREA.
AREALTIMEMEASUREMaximoCamacho,GabrielPerez-QuirosandPilarPoncelaDocumentosdeTrabajoN.
10262010GREENSHOOTSINTHEEUROAREA.
AREALTIMEMEASUREGREENSHOOTSINTHEEUROAREA.
AREALTIMEMEASURE(*)MaximoCamachoUNIVERSIDADDEMURCIAGabrielPerez-Quiros(**)BANCODEESPAAANDCEPRPilarPoncelaUNIVERSIDADAUTNOMADEMADRID(*)WearethankfultoparticipantsatCIRANOWorkshoponForecastingMethods(Canada),AnnualCenterforGrowthandBusinessCycleResearch(Manchester),T-1TimeSeriesEconometricsWorkshop(Zaragoza).
WealsothankseminarparticipantsatUniversityofGranada,UniversityofMaastrich,UniversityCatolicaofLisboa,TheConferenceBoard,andUniversityCarlosIIIforusefulsuggestions.
MaximoCamachothanksFundaciónRamónArecesforfinancialsupport.
PilarPoncelaacknowledgesfinancialsupportfromtheSpanishMinistryofEducation,contractgrantECO2009-10287.
Remainingerrorsareourownresponsibility.
TheviewsinthispaperarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotrepresenttheviewsoftheBancodeEspaaortheEurosystem.
(**)CorrespondingAuthor:GabrielPérez-Quirós,BancodeEspaa,ResearchDivision,MonetaryandFinancialStudiesDepartment,DGEconomics,Statistics,andResearch.
Alcalá48,28014Madrid,Spain.
E-mail:gabriel.
perez@bde.
es.
DocumentosdeTrabajo.
N.
10262010TheWorkingPaperSeriesseekstodisseminateoriginalresearchineconomicsandnance.
Allpapershavebeenanonymouslyrefereed.
Bypublishingthesepapers,theBancodeEspaaaimstocontributetoeconomicanalysisand,inparticular,toknowledgeoftheSpanisheconomyanditsinternationalenvironment.
TheopinionsandanalysesintheWorkingPaperSeriesaretheresponsibilityoftheauthorsand,therefore,donotnecessarilycoincidewiththoseoftheBancodeEspaaortheEurosystem.
TheBancodeEspaadisseminatesitsmainreportsandmostofitspublicationsviatheINTERNETatthefollowingwebsite:http://www.
bde.
es.
Reproductionforeducationalandnon-commercialpurposesispermittedprovidedthatthesourceisacknowledged.
BANCODEESPAA,Madrid,2010ISSN:0213-2710(print)ISSN:1579-8666(online)Depósitolegal:M.
33559-2010UnidaddePublicaciones,BancodeEspaaAbstractWeshowthatanextensionoftheMarkov-switchingdynamicfactormodelsthataccountsforthespecificitiesofthedaytodaymonitoringofeconomicdevelopmentssuchasraggededges,mixedfrequenciesanddatarevisionsisagoodtooltoforecasttheEuroarearecessionsinrealtime.
Weprovideexamplesthatshowthenonlinearnatureoftherelationsbetweendatarevisions,pointforecastsandforecastuncertainty.
Accordingtoourempiricalresults,wethinkthattherealtimeprobabilitiesofrecessionareanappropriatestatistictocapturewhatthepresscallgreenshoots.
Keywords:BusinessCycles,OutputGrowth,TimeSeries.
JELclassication:E32,C22,E27.
BANCODEESPAA9DOCUMENTODETRABAJON.
1026&$!
'&!
GE;@7EE5K5>7E3EI7=@AIF:7FA63K7J:;4;FFIA=7K;@E;9:FE+:7MDEF43E;5873FGD7A8F:74GE;@7EE5K5>7;EF:7BD7E7@57A85AAH77@FE35DAEE75A@A;5;@6;53FADEGD@E3@6$;F5:7>>EF3F76F:3F3D787D7@57E53>7A84GE;@7EE5K5>7EGEF477JFD35F768DAF:783>>;4>7;@6;53F;A@EBDAH;6764KF;7E7D;7E8ADH3D;7675A@A;535F;H;F;7E@F:7E37EB;D;FF:7%)4GE;@7EE5K5>763F;@95A;FF7767M@7E3D757EE;A@3E3E;9@;M53@F675>;@7;@75A@A;535F;H;FKEBD73635DAEEF:775A@AK>3EF;@9AD7F:3@387IA@F:E@AD3>>KH;E;4>7;@BDA6G5F;A@7B>AK7@FD73>;@5A73@6AF:7D;@6;53FADE+:7E75A@6=7K873FGD7A8F:74GE;@7EE5K5>76K@3;5E;EF:7D75GDD7@57A8FIAE7B3D3F74GE;@7EE5K5>7B:3E7ED757EE;A@E3@67JB3@E;A@EI:;5:3D75>73D>K6;EF;@9G;E:34>7I;F:6;Q7D7@F6K@3;5EGD@E3@6$;F5:7>>EFD7EE76F:3F35K5>75A@E;EFEA87JB3@E;A@EA55GDD;@93F34AGFF:7E37F;7;@3@K75A@A;535F;H;F;7E8A>>AI764KE;;>3D>K97@7D3>D757EE;A@E5A@FD35F;A@E3@6D7H;H3>EI:;5:7D97;@FAF:77JB3@E;A@B:3E7A8F:7@7JF5K5>7+:7D73D7E7H7D3>3BBDA35:7E;@F:7>;F7D3FGD73;;@9FAE;G>F3@7AGE>K673>F:7FIA4GE;@7EE5K5>7E873FGD7E;DEF>K;74A>63@6)G674GE5:EG997EF763FIAEF7BG@;M76BDA576GD7@F:7MDEFEF7BF:7KA67>5AAH77@FE3A@9;@6;H;6G3>75A@A;5;@6;53FADE4KGE;@9F:7>;@73D5A;@5;67@F;@6;53FAD3BBDA35:67E5D;476;@*FA5=3@6.
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
1026A>>AI;@9F:7F:;D6BDABAE3>F:;EB3B7D67E5D;47E3@67H3>G3F7E37F:A6F:3F5ABGF7ED73>F;7D757EE;A@BDA434;>;F;7E;@F:7GDA3D73+:743E7>;@78D37IAD=;EF:7>;@73DGDA*+%6K@3;5835FADA67>EG997EF764K335:A3@6'7D7L(G;DAEI:;5::3E3>D736K477@H3>;63F763E3GE78G>A67>FA5ABGF7E:ADFF7D8AD753EFEA8F:7GDA3D73'9DAIF:D3F7E;@D73>F;7,E;@9F:7F75:@;CG7EEG997EF764KF:7BD7H;AGE>;F7D3FGD7A@4GE;@7EE5K5>7EI7;@5ADBAD3F7$3D=AHEI;F5:;@96K@3;5E;@F:7GDA*+%A67>.
;F:3D73>F;7GDA3D7363F3E7FI767H7>ABE7H7D3>8AD753EF;@97J7D5;E7EF:3F>736FAEA7;@F7D7EF;@9D7EG>FE;DEFI7E:AI7H;67@57;@83HADA8F:7@A@>;@73D@3FGD7A8F:763F397@7D3F;@9BDA57EE*75A@6I763F7F:7GDA3D734GE;@7EE5K5>7FGD@;@9BA;@FEE;@57,E;@9F:7%)63F7E3ED787D7@57I7M@6F:3FF:7,*3@6F:7GDA3D734GE;@7EE5K5>7E3D7475A;@9AD7EK@5:DA@AGE;@F:7>3EFK73DE+:;D6I7E:AIF:3FF:7A67>BDAH;67E3E;9@;M53@F;BDAH77@F;@F:7EB776I;F:I:;5:F:7GDA3D734GE;@7EE5K5>7FGD@;@9BA;@FE53@47;67@F;M76&H7D3>>AGDD7EG>FEEG997EFF:3FF:7$3D=AHEI;F5:;@96K@3;5835FADA67>BDABAE76;@F:;EB3B7D;E3H7DKGE78G>FAA>FAA@;FADF:763KFA63K75A@A;535F;H;FK;@F:7GDA3D7375A@AK+:;E;EA8EB75;3>;BADF3@576G7FAF:77JB>AE;H7;@F7D7EFA@4GE;@7EE5K5>7FGD@;@9BA;@FE;67@F;M53F;A@77D976E;@57F:7D757EE;A@@3>KEFEBA>;5K3=7DE3@6;EFE:3H77JF7@E;H7>KGE76F:7F7D!
"!
FAD787DFAE;9@3>EA8F:77@6A8F:7D757EE;A@B7D;A6%776>7EE;EFAE3KF:3FF:;EF7D;E83D8DA8A>>AI;@9E5;7@F;M55D;F7D;3E;@57;F;EH7DK;BD75;E73@6;F>73H7EF:7GE7DEFA;67@F;8KD75AH7D;7E67B7@6;@9A@F:7;DAI@47>;78EEB75;3>>KI:7@F:75AEFA85:75=;@9;@D73>F;7F:7BG4>;53F;A@53>7@63DA83@K;@6;53FADE;E5AEF>K&GDD73>F;7D757EE;A@BDA434;>;F;7EAH7D5A7F:7E76D3I435=EE;@57F:7KBDAH;6775A@A;5397@FEI;F:3EF3F;EF;53>67M@;F;A@A8F:7F7D9D77@E:AAFEI:;5:;EH7DK73EKFA;@F7DBD7F8ADF:797@7D3>BG4>;5.
:7@;E39D77@E:AAFD73>>K9D77@.
:7@F:7BDA434;>;FKA8D757EE;A@475A7EEGP5;7@F>K>AI+:7EFDG5FGD7A8F:;EB3B7D;EAD93@;L763E8A>>AIE*75F;A@AGF>;@7EF:7A67>3@66;E5GEE7EEA775A@A7FD;567F3;>ED793D6;@9F:77JF7@E;A@A8$3D=AHEI;F5:;@96K@3;5835FADA67>EFA355AG@F8ADEA7B3DF;5G>3D;F;7EA8D73>F;78AD753EF;@9*75F;A@7H3>G3F7EF:77B;D;53>D7>;34;>;FKA8F:7A67>;@I;F:;@E3B>73@6D73>F;77J7D5;E7E*75F;A@5A@5>G67EBANCODEESPAA11DOCUMENTODETRABAJON.
1026!
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
1026DGA43;74A>63@6*5AFF;4F:3FF:;E>736EFAG@67E;D34>7F;7E7D;7E5:3D35F7D;EF;5E&$(%!
%+:7835FF:3F75A@A;563F33D78D7CG7@F>KD7H;E765AB>;53F7EF:763KFA63KA@;FAD;@9A8F:775A@A;535F;H;FKE;@57D7H;E;A@E5:3@97F:763F3;@BGF;@FA8AD753EF;@9A67>E@F:7GDA3D73GDAEF3FD7H;E7EFI;57F:7'9DAIF:M9GD7E;@;FEAP5;3>63F3D7>73E7BDA57EE+:7N3E:7EF;3F733BB73DE34AGF63KE38F7DF:77@6A8F:7D7EB75F;H7CG3DF7D*;@57;F;E43E76A@BD7>;;@3DK;@8AD3F;A@GDAEF3FBG4>;E:7EF:7MDEF7EF;3F734AGF63KE38F7DI:;5:D7>;7E;@AD75AB>7F763F3;@3>>KF:7E75A@67EF;3F7A8'9DAIF:D3F73;@5ADBAD3F7E3@366;F;A@3>D7H;E;A@34AGF63KE38F7DF:7MDEF55AD6;@9FAF:;ED7H;E;A@BDA57EE>7FGE53>>!
F:7D7H;E;A@47FI77@F:7N3E:3@6F:7MDEF3@6!
F:7D7H;E;A@47FI77@F:7MDEF3@6F:7E75A@6@F:;EB3B7DI78A>>AIH3@E3@6A7@7@#7H;@.
;7>3@6FA5A@E;67DF:3FBD7>;;@3DK36H3@57E3D7@A;EKE;9@3>EA8D7H;E7663F333!
!
33!
I:7D7!
3@6!
3D7;@67B7@67@F73@L7DAD7H;E;A@E:A5=EI;F:H3D;3@57E3@63@6D7EB75F;H7>K335:A3@6'7D7L(G;DAEE:AI7B;D;53>7H;67@57FA475A@M67@FF:3FF:;EEB75;M53F;A@;E3D73EA@34>7D7BD7E7@F3F;A@A8F:763F3D7H;E;A@BDA57EE%@366;F;A@FAF:7F75:@;53>6;P5G>F;7E3EEA5;3F76FAF:7D73>F;73EE7EE7@FEA8F:775A@A;535F;H;FKF:3F:3H7477@6;E5GEE7647>AI8AD753EF7DE:3H7FA673>I;F:F:7FKB;53>>35=A8EK@5:DA@;5;FK;@63F3BG4>;53F;A@,EG3>>KA@F:>K;@6;53FADE3D7BG4>;E:76G5:AD7F;7>KF:3@CG3DF7D>KE7D;7E@366;F;A@;@6;53FADE43E76A@EGDH7KEEA8F;@6;53FADE&F:7D3EA47A67>76AI7H7D;@F:;EB3B7DI7A@>K5A@E;67DF:7AP5;3>'D7>73E753>7@63DADE;B>;5;FKI73EEG7F:3F3@63D7G@5ADD7>3F76BANCODEESPAA13DOCUMENTODETRABAJON.
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
1026I:AE7FD3@E;F;A@BDA434;>;F;7E3D767M@764K*I:7D7%&3@6D787DFAF:7;@8AD3F;A@E7FGBFAB7D;A6.
@F:7D7>3F76>;F7D3FGD7E7H7D3>EB75;M53F;A@EA8F:7@A@>;@73D6K@3;5EA8F:75AA@835FAD:3H7477@EG997EF76";3@6/AA3@6:3GH7F3>>AI76F:7;@F7D57BFF7DFA47D79;767B7@67@F@F:7EB75;M53F;A@A8";3@6%7>EA@;F;EF:773@;@EF736A8F:7;@F7D57BFI:3F;E3>>AI76FA7J:;4;FD79;7E:;8FE@F:;EB3B7DI78A>>AI335:A3@6'7D7L(G;DAEFA3EEG7F:3FF:7835FAD6K@3;5E53@4753BFGD764KE:;8FE47FI77@F:74GE;@7EE5K5>7EF3F7E3@6I7E7FF:73GFAD79D7EE;H75A7P5;7@FE7CG3>FAL7DA.
;F:;@F:;E8D37IAD=I753@>347>-3@6-3EF:77JB3@E;A@3@6D757EE;A@EF3F7E3FF;7.
;83@67@57F:75AA@835FAD;E7JB75F76FA7J:;4;FBAE;F;H79DAIF:D3F7E;@7JB3@E;A@E3@6>AI7DGEG3>>K@793F;H79DAIF:D3F7E;@D757EE;A@E+AEB75;8KF:76K@3;5835FADA67>A8N3E:MDEFE75A@67B>AK7@F:3D63@6EA8F;@6;53FADE>7FGEMDEF3EEG7F:3F;EE;@963F36A@AF3BB73D;@F:763F3E7FEAF:3FCG3DF7D>KE7D;7E3D7A4E7DH76A@F:>K3@6F:75ADD7EBA@6;@9H;@F397B3@7>E3D743>3@576.
73EEG7F:3FF:7835FAD53BFGD7EF:75AA@6K@3;5E;@F:79DAIF:D3F7EA8D73>35F;H;FK63F3AI7H7DE;@57EGDH7K;@6;53FADE;@GDAB73D767E;9@76FA53BFGD73@@G3>9DAIF:D3F7EA8F:7D787D7@57E7D;7EE77GDAB73@A;EE;A@I7;BAE7F:3FF:7>7H7>EA8EA8F;@6;53FADE67B7@6A@F:7EGA85GDD7@FH3>G7EA8F:75AA@835FAD3@6F:7;D>3EF7>7H7@>39976H3>G7E#7FGE5A>>75FF:7,:3D6;@6;53FADE;@F:7H75FAD3@6F:7,EA8F;@6;53FADE;@F:7H75FAD#7F(47F:7CG3DF7D>K7B>AK7@F9DAIF:D3F73@6>7F//3@647F:7E53>3DE3@6,6;7@E;A@3>3@6,6;7@E;A@3>H75FADEI:;5:67F7D;@7F:7;6;AEK@5D3F;56K@3;5E;@F:7A67>+:76K@3;5A8F:74GE;@7EE5K5>7;@6;53FADE53@47&GD7B;D;53>D7EG>FEEG997EFF:3FF:7B7D8AD3@57A8EI;F5:;@973@3@6EI;F5:;@9;@F7D57BF;EE;;>3DBANCODEESPAA15DOCUMENTODETRABAJON.
1026EF3F763E3(33""""""""""""""""""""""////////////////////!
!
!
I:7D700003@67835FAD>A36;@9E73EGD7F:7E7@E;F;H;FKA8735:E7D;7EFAAH77@FE;@F:7>3F7@F835FAD3@6:3H76;7@E;A@EF:3F>736F:7FA475A@8AD34>7I;F:735:7CG3F;A@+:75AB>7F76K@3;5EA8F:7A67>;E35:;7H764K3EEG;@9F:3FF:7;6;AEK@5D3F;55ABA@7@FE8A>>AI3GFAD79D7EE;H7BDA57EE7EA8AD67DE))3@6)000I:7D7%%%%%%3@6%%I;F:F:75AH3D;3@57E3D73EEG76FA47L7DA3@6I7E7FF:7H3D;3@57A8F:7@A;E73EEA5;3F76FAF:75AA@835FAD7CG3>FAA@7+:7@G47DA8>39E:3E477@E7>75F76EA3EFA5A@E;67D)BDA57EE7E+:;E;E35:;7H764KE7FF;@93@6+:;E;67@F;8K;@93EEGBF;A@;EEF3@63D6;@6K@3;5835FADA67>EBANCODEESPAA16DOCUMENTODETRABAJON.
1026A@E;67DF:78A>>AI;@9EF3F7EB357D7BD7E7@F3F;A@A8F:7$3D=AHEI;F5:;@96K@3;5835FADA67>$1I:7D7-%&3@61%%+:7BB7@6;JBDAH;67EAD767F3;>EA@F:7A67>EFDG5FGD73@6F:7EB75;M58ADEA8F:7E73FD;57E.
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
10263@6;8H3D;34>7;EA4E7DH34>73FF;7.
3@63@6;@53E7A8;EE;@963F3I:7D7*;EF:76;7@E;A@A8F:7EF3F7H75FAD$55AD6;@9>KF:;EFD3@E8AD3F;A@5A@H7DFEF:7A67>;@3F;7H3DK;@9EF3F7EB357A67>I;F:@A;EE;@9A4E7DH3F;A@E3@6F:7@A@>;@73DH7DE;A@A8F:7"3>3@M>F7D53@476;D75F>K3BB>;76FA13@6+A67E5D;47:AIF:7A67>53@477EF;3F76>7F$47F:78AD753EFA8$43E76A@;@8AD3F;A@GBFAB7D;A63@6F:7D73>;L76EF3F7E-%3@6-&3@6>7F47;FE5AH3D;3@573FD;J+:7BD76;5F;A@7CG3F;A@E475A7$$I:7D7$;EF:77EF;3F;A@A8$3FF;7.
I;F:;@8AD3F;A@GBFAF;7.
;8-%3@6;E;FE73@ECG3D767DDAD3FD;J67M@76;@3@6D7EB75F;H7>K+:75A@6;F;A@3>8AD753EF7DDADE3D7$3@6;E;FE5A@6;F;A@3>H3D;3@577@57F:7>A9>;=7>;:AA69;H7@-%3@6-&53@475ABGF763F735:.
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
1026;EE;@94K36K@3;58AD753EFA>>AI;@9F:7E37D73EA@;@98AD753EFE8AD>A@97D:AD;LA@E3@68AD753EFE8ADAF:7D;@6;53FADE53@473GFA3F;53>>K5ABGF76"$$%'&%&%$"&!
+:77B;D;53>3@3>KE;E8A5GE7EA@F:7F:;DF77@4GE;@7EE5K5>7;@6;53FADEGE76;@F:7>;@73DGDA*+%A67>A8335:A3@6'7D7L(G;DAE+:7E7FA84GE;@7EE5K5>7;@6;53FADE;@5>G678AGDCG3DF7D>KE7D;7EE75A@6'9DAIF:D7>73E7E;FEFIABD7>;;@3DK3@@AG@577@FEN3E:3@6MDEF3@67B>AK7@F3>>A8F:7;@CG3DF7D>K9DAIF:D3F7E8AGDA@F:>K:3D6;@6;53FADEF:7GDA3D73@6GEFD;3>'DA6G5F;A@@67J'7J5>G6;@95A@EFDG5F;A@F:7@6GEFD;3>%7I&D67DE;@67J%&FAF3>3@G835FGD;@9IAD=;@9A@AD67DEF:7GDA3D73FAF3>D7F3;>E3>7EHA>G73@67JFD3GDA3D73JBADFE3>>A8F:7;@A@F:>K9DAIF:D3F7E3@6MH7EA8F;@6;53FADEF:7GDALA@75A@A;5*7@F;7@F@6;53FAD*F:77D3@4GE;@7EE5>;3F7;@67J&F:77>9;3@AH7D3>>4GE;@7EE;@6;53FAD%3@6F:7GDA3D73'GD5:3E;@9$3@397DE5A@M67@57@67J7E'$;@E7DH;57E3@63@G835FGD7EE75FADEI:;5:3D7>A3676;@>7H7>E+:77Q75F;H7E3B>79A7E8DABD;>FA!
3@G3DK@F:77B;D;53>3@3>KE;E63F33D7MDEF>KEF3@63D6;L764KEG4EFD35F;@9F:7E3B>773@8DA735:H3D;34>73@66;H;6;@94K;FEEF3@63D667H;3F;A@%"+%%+:7;@E3B>73@3>KE;EI3E53DD;76AGFI;F:F:7H;@F39763F3E7FF:3FI3E3H3;>34>7A@!
3@G3DKF:+:7G@EK@5:DA@;L76I3KA@I:;5:63F33D7BG4>;E:76;E;>>GEFD3F76;@+34>7I:;5:D7BADFEF:7>3F7EF3H3;>34>7M9GD7EA8735:;@6;53FAD*;@57'3@6B>AK7@FD7>73E7E3BB73DCG3DF7D>KF:7FIAMDEFA@F:EA8735:CG3DF7D3D7FD73F763E;EE;@963F3@EA78AD753EF;@963F7E@AF;@F:;EH;@F397BD7>;;@3DK36H3@57EA855AD6;@9FA335:A3@6'7D7L(G;DAEF:7;@6;53FADE:3H7477@E7>75F768DAEG557EE;H77@>3D977@FEA8F:7A67>BDABAE764K*FA5=3@6.
3FEA@8A>>AI;@9FIA5D;F7D;3;DEF63F343E;53>>KEA8F;@6;53FADEE:AG>64773D>K3H3;>34>7*75A@63@7I;@6;53FAD;E;@5>G676I:7@7H7DF:7BDABADF;A@A8'7JB>3;@764KF:7835FAD;E;@5D73E76BANCODEESPAA20DOCUMENTODETRABAJON.
1026'9DAIF:N3E:3@6MDEF5AG>6473H3;>34>7478AD7F:7BG4>;53F;A@A8E75A@6'*GDH7K63F3:3H7H7DKE:ADFBG4>;E:;@967>3KA8A@7AD7H7@>7EEA@F:I:;>7:3D663F33D7D7>73E76I;F:3D7>3F;H7>K>A@97D67>3KA834AGFFIAA@F:E+:7>3EF873FGD7;>>GEFD3F76;@+34>7;EF:78AD753EF;@9E5:76G>78A>>AI76;@F:;EB3B7DAD753EFE8AD3B3DF;5G>3DCG3DF7DA8'9DAIF:EBD736AH7D3B7D;A6A8@;@7A@F:E55AD6;@9>KF:7@;@7A@F:EA8;EE;@963F338F7DF:7>3EF'9DAIF:A4E7DH3F;A@&5FA47DFA!
G@7I;>>47D7B>35764KE:ADFF7D6K@3;58AD753EFE4KF:7A67>7@57;@F:78AD753EF;@9B7D;A6F:7A67>I;>>7@6GBI;F:435=53EFE@AI53EFE3@68AD753EFEEEAA@3EF:7'M9GD78ADF:7>3EFCG3DF7DA8475A7E3H3;>34>7F:7@;@7AF:8AD753EF;@9:AD;LA@I;>>47AH768ADI3D65A@H7@;7@F>K+:7A67>EB75;M53F;A@:3EBDA577676G@67DE7H7D3>3EEGBF;A@ED793D6;@9D79;7EI;F5:;@9.
7@776FAB7D8ADE7H7D3>7J7D5;E7EFABDAH;67EG997EF;H77H;67@573EFAI:7F:7DF:7A67>355AD6EFAF:7A67>3EEGBF;A@E;DEFI73EEG76F:3FF:7BAE;F;H73GFA5ADD7>3F;A@A8F:75AA@G@67D>K;@975A@A;535F;H;FK53@4753BFGD764KD79;7EI;F5:;@9D3F:7DF:3@4K3GFAD79D7EE;H7B3D37F7DE+ABDAH;677H;67@57F:3FF:;E3EEGBF;A@;ED73>;EF;5I77EF;3F76F:7>;@73DGDA*+%4KGE;@9F:7E3763F3E7FE3@6I7A4F3;@76F:3FF:7E3B>75ADD7>3F;A@47FI77@4AF:835FADEI3E+:;ED7EG>F;E@AFEGDBD;E;@9335:A3@6'7D7L(G;DAEE:AIF:3FF:7D73D7;67@F;M53F;A@BDA4>7EI:7@F:7B7DE;EF7@57;@3F;7E7D;7E53@4753BFGD764K4AF:$3D=AHEI;F5:;@96K@3;5E3@6>;@73D3GFAD79D7EE;H77F:A6E+:7E75A@67J7D5;E7FA3EE7EEF:7DA4GEF@7EEA8AGD3EEGBF;A@E:3EFA6AI;F:E:AI;@9F:3FF:7835FAD7J:;4;FE4GE;@7EE5K5>76K@3;5E+:73J;G>;=7>;:AA67EF;3F7EA8B3D37F7DEE:AIF:3FF:7835FAD;E7JB75F76FA47E;9@;M53@F>KBAE;F;H7H3>G7A8I;F:EF3@63D667H;3F;A@A8;@F:7EF3F7-I:;>7;F;EE;9@;M53@F>K@793F;H7I;F:EF3@63D667H;3F;A@A8;@F:7EF3F7-55AD6;@9>KI753@3EEA5;3F7F:7E7EF3F7E3E7JB3@E;A@E3@6D757EE;A@E@366;F;A@735:D79;7;E:;9:>KB7DE;EF7@FI;F:7EF;3F76BDA434;>;F;7EA8A@7D79;7FA478A>>AI764KF:7E37D79;7A8;@F:753E7A87JB3@E;A@E3@6;@F:753E7A8D757EE;A@EEF3@63D667H;3F;A@EA83@67@57I7;BAE76;@35FADE7JFD35F768DA>;@73D3@6@A@>;@73DM>F7DE>736FAH7DKE;;>3D9D3B:E+:7K:3H7477@A;FF76FAE3H7EB357BANCODEESPAA21DOCUMENTODETRABAJON.
1026D7EB75F;H7>K;@3>>K3@AF:7D;@F7D7EF;@94GE;@7EE5K5>7;B>;53F;A@A8F:7$3D=AH8D37IAD=;EF:3FA@753@67D;H7F:77JB75F76@G47DA8CG3DF7DEF:3FF:74GE;@7EE5K5>7B:3E7EBD7H3;>A@6;F;A@3>A@47;@9;@EF3F7F:77JB75F766GD3F;A@A83FKB;53>7JB3@E;A@;@F:7GDA3D73;E*ADA@F:E3@6F:77JB75F766GD3F;A@A8D757EE;A@;E>;=7I;E7*ADA@F:E+:7E77EF;3F7E39D77I;F:F:7I7>>=@AI@835FF:3F7JB3@E;A@E3D7>A@97DF:3@5A@FD35F;A@EA@3H7D397>F:AG9:F:7E5AB7A8F:;EB3B7D;EAD734;F;AGEF:3@E;B>K5A@EFDG5F;@935A;@5;67@F;@67JI7GEF366;F;A@3>>K5:75=;8F:76K@3;5EA8F:75AA@835FAD3D75A@E;EF7@FI;F:F:7GDA3D734GE;@7EE5K5>7EE;@57F:7A67>I3E5A@EFDG5F76G@67DF:73EEGBF;A@F:3FF:7;@6;53FADEE:3D7F:7G@67D>K;@9399D793F775A@A;535F;H;FK6K@3;5EI:AE7B3FF7D@;E53BFGD764KF:75AA@835FADADF:;EBGDBAE7F:7EI;F5:;@9835FAD5A;@5;67@F;@67J7EF;3F76;@F:;EB3B7D;E5AB3D76I;F:F:7GDA5A;@I:;5:;EBG4>;E:76735:A@F:4K')3@6;E5A@E;67D76F:7>736;@95A;@5;67@F;@6;53FADA8F:77GDA3D734GE;@7EE5K5>7H;EG3>;@EB75F;A@A8;9GD7EG997EFEF:3FF:75AA@835FAD3@6F:7GDA5A;@AH7FA97F:7DEK@5:DA@AGE>K>F:AG9:F:7GDA5A;@AH7EH7DKEAAF:>KE;@57;F;E67E;9@76FAFD35=F:776;GF7DFD7@64KD7AH;@9E:ADFDG@NG5FG3F;A@E8DA3>3D9763F3E7FF:7E3B>75ADD7>3F;A@47FI77@F:7E7FIAE7D;7E;E34AGF)73D=34>KF:7D7E77EFA47:;9:5AA@3>;FK3A@9F:7;DEI;F5:;@9F;7E.
:;>74AF:;@6;53FADENG5FG3F73DAG@6F:7;DD7EB75F;H773@EF:74DA365:3@97EA86;D75F;A@;@F:7E7D;7EE77FA3D=CG;F7I7>>F:7E375K5>7E@B3DF;5G>3DF:7K7J:;4;FB7D;A6EA8BDA@AG@5766DABE;@63F7E8ADI:;5:'9DAIF:D3F7E67F7D;AD3F7E;9@;M53@F>K3@6&8EB75;3>;@F7D7EF;EF:7AEFD757@FB7D;A68ADI:;5:4AF:;@6;53FADED735:763B73=;@F:7479;@@;@9A83@6:3H7675>;@76E;@57F:7@G@F;>F:7D75AH7DK;@F:7EG7D+A7J3;@7F:75ADD7>3F;A@A8F:74GE;@7EE5K5>7;@6;53FADE3@6F:7835FAD+34>7D7BADFEF:73J;G>;=7>;:AA67EF;3F7EA8F:7835FAD>A36;@9EEF3@63D67DDADEI;F:;@B3D7@F:7E7E+:77EF;3F7E3D73>I3KEBAE;F;H73@6EF3F;EF;53>>KE;9@;M53@FI:;5:39D77EI;F:F:7EF3@63D6H;7IF:3FF:7;@6;53FADE3D7BDA5K5>;53>.
;F:D7EB75FFAF:7E;L7A8F:75ADD7>3F;A@EF:775A@A;5;@6;53FADEI;F:>3D97D835FAD>A36;@9E3D7F:AE75ADD7EBA@6;@9FA3@6'*A8F;@6;53FADE7J:;4;FG5:>AI7D835FAD>A36;@9EI;F:33J;GA8;@F:753E7A8'$;@3@G835FGD7E+:;ED7EG>F5AG>6BANCODEESPAA22DOCUMENTODETRABAJON.
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
:;>7,*55AD6;@9FAF:7A67>'A@F:>K7EF;3F7E7CG3>FAF:735FG3>M9GD7E;@F:7F:;D6A@F:A8735:CG3DF7D%AF7F:3FF:7%):3E@AF63F76F:7>3EFF:DAG9:K7FBANCODEESPAA23DOCUMENTODETRABAJON.
10265>73D>K>736EF:7D757EE;A@F:73@6D757EE;A@E3D7:;9:>KEK@5:DA@;L76*;@57I73D7;@F7D7EF76;@A4F3;@;@9EB75;M5FGD@;@9BA;@F63F7EI7I;>>D7CG;D73DG>7FA5A@H7DFF:7D757EE;A@BDA434;>;F;7E;@FA36;5:AFAAGEH3D;34>7I:;5:E;9@3>EI:7F:7DF:775A@AK;E;@3@7JB3@E;A@AD3D757EE;A@E;B>7DG>7GE764K3;>FA@;E43E76A@I:7F:7DA@7IAG>67JB75FF:3FF:7GDA3D7;EAD7>;=7>KF:3@@AFFA47;@3D757EE;A@55AD6;@9>KI7D7CG;D7F:3FF:7BDA434;>;FKA8D757EE;A@AH7E8DA34AH7FA5A@E;67D3F:DAG9:3@68DA47>AIFA5A@E;67D3B73=+:7EB75;M5;@87D7@5734AGFF:7:;EFAD;53>FGD@;@9BA;@FE97@7D3F764KF:7$3D=AHEI;F5:;@96K@3;5835FADA67>3BB73DE;@+34>7AD5AB3D;EA@BGDBAE7EF:7%)AP5;3>63F7E3D73>EAE:AI@;@F:7F34>7@D7>3F;A@I;F:F:7,*F:7D757EE;A@;@F:773D>K@;@7F;7E5>73D>KM@;E:7E>3F7D;@F:7GDA3D734GFF:7:;EFAD;53>FGD@;@9BA;@FE63F7E;@3@6D757EE;A@EDAG9:>K5A;@5;6755AD6;@9FAF:;E7J7D5;E7I75AG>6E77F:3F6;E5D7B3@5;7E;@4GE;@7EE5K5>7EK@5:DA@;5;FK47FI77@F:7,*3@6F:7GDAE77FA:3H76;;@;E:76.
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
3@G3DK3@6I7:36;@8AD3F;A@34AGF;@6;53FADEGBFA75747D+:;EA@F:I3E5>73D>KB3DFA83@7JB3@E;A@B7D;A6%AII7E;G>3F7F:7BAEE;4>7AGF5A7EA8F:78A>>AI;@9%D7>73E78DA34AGFFA8AD!
3@G3DKF:7MDEF3H3;>34>7;@6;53FADI;F:5GDD7@F;@8AD3F;A@34AGFF:7MDEFCG3DF7DA8,E;@9F:7E7BAF7@F;3>AGF5A7EI7;@87DF:7BDA434;>;FKA8D757EE;A@8ADF:3FA@F:I:;5:;EA4F3;@768DA63F3H;@F397EF:3F5A@F3;@E735:A8F:7E7AGF5A7E;9GD74AFFA>;@76;EB>3KEF:7BD76;5F76BDA434;>;FKA8D757EE;A@3EEA5;3F76FA735:%BAF7@F;3>;EEG7.
7@AID7B73FF:77J7D5;E78AD!
3@G3DK35>73DD757EE;A@A@F:3@6I7BANCODEESPAA24DOCUMENTODETRABAJON.
10263>EAB>AFF:7D757EE;A@BDA434;>;F;7E;@;9GD7FAB>;@7+:7@A@>;@73D873FGD7EF:3F3D7355AG@F768AD4KF:7A67>53@475>73D>K67F75F764K7J3;@;@9F:7;@87DD76BDA434;>;F;7EA8D757EE;A@E;@!
3@G3DK3@6!
3@G3DKEI753@A4E7DH78DAF:7B;5FGD7EF:75GDH73EEA5;3F76FA;E5>73D>KE:;8F766AI@+:;E;B>;7EF:3FF:7E37%H3>G75A@F3;@EH7DK6;Q7D7@F;@8AD3F;A@34AGFF:7BDA434;>;FKA83@;;@7@FD757EE;A@67B7@6;@9A@F:7B7D;A6F:3F;F;E5A@E;67D76*B75;M53>>K;@3%H3>G7A8IAG>6473EEA5;3F76I;F:3BDA434;>;FKA8D757EE;A@A83>AEFAI7H7D;@F:7E37H3>G7A8%IAG>6;B>;763D757EE;A@BDA434;>;FK@7JFB7D;A65>AE7FA+:7;@FG;F;A@;E5>73D@AD67DFABD76;5FF:3F3D757EE;A@;E5A;@9I7@776EFDA@97D7H;67@57;@F:7%47:3H;AD;@7JB3@E;A@EF:3@;@D757EE;A@EFA;@87DF:3F3D757EE;A@;E;;@7@FH7@8AD@A7JB7DFE;@75A@A;5EAGD@A@>;@73DBDABAE3>835;>;F3F7EF:7F3E=A8;@F7DBD7F;@9@7ID7>73E7EA8F:73;@75A@A;5;@6;53FADE;@F:7GDA3D734K5A@H7DF;@9F:7;@FABDA434;>;F;7EA8D757E;A@+:7$3D=AHEI;F5:;@947:3H;AD3EEG76;@F:;EEB75;M53F;A@3>EA;B>;7ED;5:7DD7>3F;A@E:;BE47FI77@F:74GE;@7EE5K5>7;@6;53FADE3@6'BD7H;E;A@EF:3@F:AE7EG997EF764K>;@73D6K@3;5835FADA67>E+:7;@FG;F;A@47:;@6F:7@A@>;@73DD7EBA@E7E;E3>EA5>73D%7ID7>73E7E3D75A@H7DF76;@FA;@87D7@57E34AGFF:7EF3F7A8F:74GE;@7EE5K5>7I:;5:3D7GE76;@5ABGF;@9AGFBGFBD76;5F;A@E4KF:7A67>+A;>>GEFD3F7F:;E@A@>;@73D7Q75FI7B>AF;@;9GD7F:77JB75F76'9DAIF:D3F7EF:3FIAG>6478AD753EF768DA6;Q7D7@FBAF7@F;3>D73>;L3F;A@EA8%;@!
3@G3DKADF:;EBGDBAE7I753>>F:7"3>3@M>F7DI;F:F:7:;EFAD;53>F;7E7D;7EA83>>F:763F34GF7@>3D976I;F:735:A8F:7E7E;G>3F76H3>G7EA8%3@6I7B>AF;@F:7M9GD7F:78AD753EFEA8F:76;Q7D7@F7JB75F76H3>G7EA8AGFBGF9DAIF:AD7JFD77@793F;H7H3>G7EA8F:7;@6;53FADF:7A67>IAG>6;@87DBDA434;>;F;7EA8D757EE;A@5>AE7FAA@73@6'I:;5:3D7GE76FA8AD753EF9DAIF:D3F7EH3>G7EF:3F3D75>AE7FAEF:7H3>G7EA8%;@5D73E7F:7A67>BD76;5FED7>3F;H7>K47FF7DH3>G7EA8'9DAIF:I:;5:;@5D73E73>AEF>;@73D>KI;F:%E;@57F:7@G@F;>H3>G7EA8F:7;@6;53FADA834AGFDAG@6F:;EH3>G7I:;5:5ADD7EBA@6EFAF:7H3>G7E8ADI:;5:;9GD7E:AI763EG4EF3@F;3>675>;@7;@F:7;@87DD76BDA434;>;FKA8F;EIADF:D753>>;@9F:3FI73D7GE;@97J5>GE;H7>KF:763F3E7FEF:3FI7D73H3;>34>73FF:763F7EA8F:78AD753EFEBANCODEESPAA25DOCUMENTODETRABAJON.
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
10268AD753EF;@9D7H7DE7E)73D=34>K355AD6;@9FAF:7*H3>G7EA8F:7$F7EFEF:7:KBAF:7E;EA87CG3>BD76;5F;H7355GD35K53@@AF47D7>7H7>E+:;E@AF34>K;B>;7EF:3FF:7@A@>;@73DA67>;E@AF3EF3F;EF;53>>KE;9@;M53@F>KIADE7BD76;5FADA8F:7GDA3D73'9DAIF:F:3@F:7>;@73DA67>7EB;F7F:75AB3D34>7355GD35K;@8AD753EF;@99DAIF:8DAF:7>;@73D3@6@A@>;@73DA67>EF:73;@5A@FD;4GF;A@A8F:7>3FF7D;E;FE34;>;FKFA5ABGF7F;7>K;@87D7@57E34AGFF:7GDA3D734GE;@7EE5K5>7E;9GD7E:AIEF:7BDA434;>;F;7EA8D757EE;A@EF:3FIAG>647;@87DD7663;>K4K38AD753EF7DI:AGE76F:7;@8AD3F;A@3H3;>34>73FF:763KA8F:78AD753EF8DA!
3@G3DKEFFA!
3@G3DKF:55AD6;@9FAF:;EM9GD7;@;6!
G>KF:7BDA434;>;FKA8D757EE;A@;@5D73E76GBFAH3>G7EF:3F3D7H7DK5>AE7FAA@7F;EIADF:@AF;@9F:3FF:;EBDABF>KE;9@3>A8436@7IE34AGFF:7EF3F7A8F:7GDA3D7375A@AKD7BD7E7@FE39D73F;BDAH77@F;@F:7F;;@9A8FGD@;@9BA;@FE;67@F;M53F;A@EI;F:D7EB75FFAAF:7DEF3@63D663F;@97F:A6EEG5:3EF:7FIA5A@E75GF;H783>>E;@'@!
G>KF:7>3F7EF3H3;>34>7M9GD7A8E75A@6'I3E8ADD7>73E76!
G>KF:3@6;FI3EEF;>>3BAE;F;H73@6H7DK:;9:@G47DI:;>7F:7BDA434;>;FKA8D757EE;A@D735:763:;9:D75AD6A8*;@57F:7'M9GD7E8ADF:7E75A@63@6F:;D6CG3DF7DEA8I7D7@793F;H7;8A@75A@E;67D76F:3FFIA5A@E75GF;H783>>EA8'9DAIF:3D=F:7B73=F:7D757EE;A@IAG>6@AF478AD3>>K;67@F;M76478AD7F:7BG4>;53F;A@63KA8F:7F:;D6CG3DF7D'%AH747DF:AI7H7D;9GD7E:AIEF:3F4AF:EA8F3@6:3D6;@6;53FADEEF3DF76F:783>>E;@73D>KEG7DF:79DAIF:D3F7EA8'%&3@6JBADFEI7D73@6;@$3K&>AEFBA;@FE;@!
G@73@6*3@6'$$>AEF3@6BA;@FE;@!
G>K@366;F;A@;9GD7:7>BEGEFA7J3;@7FAI:3F7JF7@FF:7GDA3D73D757EE;A@;EAH7D3FF:77@6A83@6I:7@F:7F:DAG9:I3E67F75F764KAGDA67>+:;E7J7D5;E753@47;@F7DBD7F763E3D73>F;7E73D5:8ADF:783AGE9D77@E:AAFE4AGF;6BD;>F:7BDA434;>;FKA8D757EE;A@6D33F;53>>K6DABB768DAH3>G7EA834AGFFAH3>G7E5>AE7FAL7DAE;@F:753E7A8F:7B73=I7M@67H;67@57A83FDAG9:F:3F3D=EF:77@6@366;F;A@'7D7L(G;DAE3@6+;7D3@@E:AIF:3FF:73;@8AD753EF;@993;@E8DA$3D=AHEI;F5:;@9EB75;M53F;A@ED7>KA@F:78AD753EFEA8:;9:7DA7@FEA8F:763F33EK7FD;5D;E=E3@67JFD77H3>G7E+:;EB7D;A6;@5>G67EF:7GDA3D73D757EE;A@BANCODEESPAA27DOCUMENTODETRABAJON.
1026A8F:7D757EE;A@478AD7AF:7DEF3@63D663F;@97F:A6EE;@57F:7>3F7EF3H3;>34>7M9GD7A8'9DAIF:I3EEF;>>H7DK@793F;H78ADF:7>3EFCG3DF7DA8H7@>3F7DF:A8$3KF:7MDEFCG3DF7DA8I3EBG4>;E:76I;F:3@7H7@AD7@793F;H7@G47D8ADF:7N3E:A8.
:;5:3D7F:775:3@;5E47:;@6F:7E79AA6E;9@3>EF:3F3D=F:75:3@97E;@BDA434;>;F;7E.
:7@F:7BDA434;>;F;7EA8D757EE;A@I7D7EF;>>:;9:3FF:7479;@@;@9A8BD;>F:7H3>G7EA8EA7EA8F;@6;53FADEEG5:3E*3@6'$$I7D73@6D7EB75F;H7>KAI7H7DF:78A>>AI;@9D73>;L3F;A@EE;@57F:3F63F7I7D73@6I:;5:;B>;76E;9@;8;53@F;BDAH77@FE38F7DE7H7D3>A@F:EA85A@E7CGF;H783>>E@366;F;A@F:79AA6@7IEI7D75A@MD764KF:7:3D6;@6;53FADEI:7@F:7K475373H3;>34>7'3@6%&;@5D73E768DA3@6;@BD;>FA3@6;@$3K3@6*3>7E3@6JBADFED3;E768DA3@6;@$3KFA3@6;@!
G@7+:7D78AD7F:7$3D=AHEI;F5:;@96K@3;5835FADA67>:36G@7CG;HA53>>KE;9@3>76;@BD;>F:3FF:7F:DAG9:;@F:77GDA3D73:36A55GDD768F7D3>A@9I;@F7DF:79D77@E:AAFEA875A@A;5D75AH7DK;@F:7GDA3D73EBD3@9GB;@$3K!
'%!
$3D=AHEI;F5:;@96K@3;5835FADA67>E3D7475A;@9H7DKBABG>3D;@7B;D;53>3@3>KE7E@3D757@FBDABAE3>335:A'7D7L(G;DAE3@6'A@57>37JF7@6F:7A67>EFA355AG@F8ADEA7EB75;M5;F;7EA8D73>F;78AD753EF;@97J7D5;E7E;J;@98D7CG7@5;7E63F3D7H;E;A@E3@6D399767697E@F:;EB3B7DI76A5G7@FF:7GE78G>@7EEA8355AG@F;@98ADF:7E763F3BDA4>7EFA47GE76;@F:763KFA63KA@;FAD;@9A8F:7GDA3D7375A@AK.
7E:AIF:3FF:7A67>93H773D>KE;9@3>EA8F:7479;@@;@9A8F:7D757EE;A@;@73D>K!
G>K3@6A8F:77@6A8F:7D757EE;A@3DAG@6BD;>+:7GE78G>@7EEA8F:;E3@3>KE;E;EAD77H;67@FI:7@A@7;@F7DBD7FEF:7D73>F;7D757EE;A@BDA434;>;F;7EA4F3;@76;@F:7B3B7D3E3EF3F;EF;53>67M@;F;A@A8F:7F7D9D77@E:AAFE@F7D7EF;@9>KF:7@G47DA8E73D5:7EA8F:7F7D9D77@E:AAFE;@AA9>7FD7@6EE:AIE3B73=;@$3K387I63KE38F7DF:7E:3DBD76G5F;A@;@F:7BDA434;>;FKA8D757EE;A@$G5:>3F7DA@%AH747DF:GDAEF3FBG4>;E:763BAE;F;H73@6EFDA@9'9DAIF:D3F78ADF:7F:;D6CG3DF7DA8I:;5:;B>;76F:3FF:77@6A8F:7D757EE;A@47537AP5;3>BANCODEESPAA28DOCUMENTODETRABAJON.
1026&H7DF:7K73DF:;E7JBD7EE;A@:3E477@:;9:>KBABG>3D;L763E3F7DF:3FD7BD7E7@FEF:7479;@@;@9EA875A@A;5D75AH7D;7E38F7D3D757EE;A@GFF:7F7D;EH7DK;BD75;E73@6:3E@AF477@67M@76;@75A@A;53>>K73@;@98G>I3KEF>73H7EF:7GE7DEA8F:7F7DFA;67@F;8KI:7@F:7D75AH7DK5A7E67B7@6;@943E;53>>KA@F:7;DAI@47>;78E@366;F;A@E;@57F:7E;9@3>EA8D75AH7D;7E6A@AF3BB73D;@3>>F:775A@A;5;@6;53FADEI;F:F:7E37;@F7@E;FKF:7E=7BF;53>GE7DEI;>>47;@5>;@76FA3557@FG3F7F:7@793F;H7E;9@3>EA8EA7;@6;53FADEI:;>7F:7ABF;;EF;5GE7DEI;>>47F7BF76FAEFD7EEF:7BAE;F;H7E;9@3>EA8EA7AF:7DE%776>7EE;EFAE3KF:3FA@;FAD;@9F:7>3F7EFD7>73E7EA8F:7D7>7H3@F75A@A;5;@6;53FADE8AD@A7JB7DFE;@75A@A;5E;ECG;F7:;9:,E;@9F:7D73>F;7BDA434;>;F;7EI:;5:53@4763;>KGB63F768DAAGD5ABGF3F;A@3>>KE;B>73>9AD;F:IAG>6835;>;F3F7F:73@3>KE;EA8F:763KFA63K75A@A;567H7>AB7@FEBANCODEESPAA29DOCUMENTODETRABAJON.
1026BB7@6;J+A;>>GEFD3F7:AIF:73FD;57EEF3F76;@F:773EGD77@F3@6FD3@E;F;A@7CG3F;A@E>AA=>;=7>7F4733FD;JA8%&L7DA7E47F:7,6;7@E;A@3>;67@F;FK3FD;J3@647F:7"DA@75=7DBDA6G5F55AD6;@9FAF:77B;D;53>3BB>;53F;A@>7FGE3EEG7F:3F3@6,ADE;B>;5;FK>7FGE3EEG7F:3F3>>H3D;34>7E3D73>I3KEA4E7DH763F3A@F:>K8D7CG7@5K@F:;E7J3B>7F:773EGD77@F7CG3F;A@$1I;F:1%%53@477JBD7EE763E3(3310000//!
!
+:73FD;J;E;@F:;E53E7I:7D7;E3,3FD;JA8L7DA7EI:AE7MDEF5A>G@;E3@6;E3,3FD;JI:AE75A>G@E3D7BANCODEESPAA30DOCUMENTODETRABAJON.
1026,E;@9F:73EEGBF;A@EA8F:7G@67D>K;@97J3B>7F:7FD3@E;F;A@7CG3F;A@$$53@47EF3F763E8A>>AIE#7F4736;39A@3>3FD;J;@I:;5:F:77@FD;7E;@E;67F:73;@6;39A@3>3D767F7D;@764KF:7H75FAD++:73FD;J475A7EI:7D7BANCODEESPAA31DOCUMENTODETRABAJON.
1026BANCODEESPAA32DOCUMENTODETRABAJON.
1026$%123@6*&++3P)73>F;773EGD77@FA84GE;@7EE5A@6;F;A@EQBB12R47A3H3;>34>7;@IIIB:;>367>B:;3876AD912,)%*3@63F;A@3>GD73GA85A@A;5)7E73D5:%7I/AD=12$&$3@6')0(,)&*P!
GB3@6D7EF7T75FA8,*4GE;@7EE5K5>7EQ3DF;5>712RP@FDA6G5;@9F:7GDA*+%*:ADF+7D%6;53FADA8GDAD73DAIF:Q8ADF:5A;@912$&$')0(,)&*3@6''&%#$"(%)&!
7A12,-+$P@75A@A;55:3D35F7D;L3F;A@A84GE;@7EE5K5>76K@3;5EI;F:835FADEFDG5FGD73@6D79;7EI;F5:7EQBB12,-+$3@6P3F;@94GE;@7EE5K5>7FGD@;@9BA;@FE;@D73>F;7Q;@$;>3E')AF:3@3@6-3@;E7H;7D*5;7@57BB12,-+$3@6!
')H7DE;FKA83>;8AD@;3.
AD=;@9'3B7D12RP5AB3D;EA@A8F:7D73>F;7B7D8AD3@57A84GE;@7EE5K5>763F;@97F:A6EQBB123@6-.
#%P3F3G@57DF3;@FK3@6F:7DA>7A8A@7K3E3@;@8AD3F;A@H3D;34>78ADA@7F3DKBA>;5KQBBBANCODEESPAA33DOCUMENTODETRABAJON.
102612@6PAB3D;@9BD76;5F;H7355GD35KQ"'$!
BB12@6),,*P$73EGD;@94GE;@7EE5K5>7EA67D@B7DEB75F;H7QBB12B75;3>)7BADF%A12-%*$P.
:7D73D7I7@AI)73>F;77EF;3F7EA8F:735DA75A@AKQBB123@6*$##P%AI53EF;@9F:7D73>F;7;@8AD3F;A@3>5A@F7@FA835DA75A@A;563F3QBB12P@7I3BBDA35:FAF:775A@A;53@3>KE;EA8@A@EF3F;A@3DKF;7E7D;7E3@6F:74GE;@7EE5K5>7EQBB12"$PK@3;5#;@73D$A67>EI;F:$3D=AH*I;F5:;@9Q&$%BB12"$3@6%#*&%PGE;@7EE5K5>7FGD@;@9BA;@FE3@7I5A;@5;67@F;@67J3@6F7EFEA86GD3F;A@67B7@67@5743E76A@36K@3;5835FADA67>I;F:D79;7EI;F5:;@9QBB12"$$!
3@6P%7I;@67JA85A;@5;67@F;@6;53FADEG>F;H3D;3F7$3D=AHEI;F5:;@9835FADA67>3BBDA35:QBB12$)%&)3@6/$,)*.
P@7I5A;@5;67@F;@67JAE4GE;@7EE5K5>7E43E76A@A@F:>K3@6CG3DF7D>KE7D;7EQBB12')0(,)&*3@6PGE;@7EE5K5>73EK7FD;7E;@EFA5=D7FGD@EH;67@578DA:;9:7DAD67DA7@FE3@65A@6;F;A@3>67@E;F;7EQBBBANCODEESPAA34DOCUMENTODETRABAJON.
102612*+&"!
3@6PBDA434;>;FKA67>A8F:75A;@5;67@F75A@A;5;@6;53FADEQ;@"#3:;D;3@6$AAD776E34D;697,@;H7DE;FK'D7EEBANCODEESPAA35DOCUMENTODETRABAJON.
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
290.
360.
100.
330.
200.
080.
100.
080.
110.
100.
13(0.
03)(0.
04)(0.
04)(0.
04)(0.
04)(0.
01)(0.
01)(0.
01)(0.
01)(0.
01)(0.
04)1RWHV6HHWKH7DEOHIRUDFURQ\PV6WDQGDUGHUURUVDUHLQSDUHQWKHVHVBANCODEESPAA36DOCUMENTODETRABAJON.
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
10267DEOH&RPSDULQJWKHSUHGLFWLYHDFFXUDF\/LQHDUPRGHO0DUNRYVZLWFKLQJ'0%DFNFDVWLQJ06(UHDO06(ILQDO1RZFDVWLQJ06(UHDO06(ILQDO)RUHFDVWLQJ06(UHDO06(ILQDO1RWHV'0UHIHUVWRSYDOXHVIURP'LHEROGDQG0DULDQRWHVW0HDQVTXDUHGHUURUVDUHFRPSXWHGE\FRPSDULQJUHDOWLPHILQDOUHYLVHG*'3JURZWKILJXUHVBANCODEESPAA38DOCUMENTODETRABAJON.
1026)LJXUH&RPPRQIDFWRUDQG(XURFRLQ1RWHV%ODFNOLQHOHIWVFDOHUHIHUV(XURDUHDFRLQFLGHQWLQGLFDWRUVFRPSXWHGIURPRXUPRGHOZKLOHUHGOLQHULJKWVFDOHUHIHUVWR(XURFRLQ7KHHIIHFWLYHVDPSOHLVBANCODEESPAA39DOCUMENTODETRABAJON.
102600.
51)LJXUH,QVDPSOH*'3DQGUHFHVVLRQSUREDELOLWLHV1RWHV%ODFNOLQHOHIWVFDOHUHIHUV(XURDUHDVPRRWKHGUHFHVVLRQSUREDELOLWLHV5HGOLQHULJKWVFDOHUHIHUVWR(XURDUHDTXDUWHUO\*'3DWPRQWKO\IUHTXHQF\WKLUGPRQWKVRIHDFKTXDUWHUDUHDFWXDOILJXUHV6KDGHGDUHDVFRUUHVSRQGVWRWKH1%(5UHFHVVLRQVIRU86BANCODEESPAA40DOCUMENTODETRABAJON.
1026)LJXUH3UREDELOLWLHVRIUHFHVVLRQRQ%1%1RWHV7KHJUDSKSORWVWKHSUREDELOLW\RIUHFHVVLRQIRUGLIIHUHQWYDOXHVRIWKHQH[WYDULDEOHWREHUHOHDVHG%1%DWWZRGLIIHUHQWSRLQWVDQG)LJXUH*'3JURZWKIRUHFDVWRQ1RWHV7KHJUDSKSORWV*'3IRUHFDVWVZKLFKDUHFRPSXWHGIURPOLQHDUDQG0DUNRYVZLWFKLQJG\QDPLFIDFWRUPRGHOVIRUGLIIHUHQWSRWHQWLDOYDOXHVRI%1%3RWHQWLDO%1%UHDOL]DWLRQV3UREDELOLWLHVRIUHFHVVLRQ3RWHQWLDO%1%UHDOL]DWLRQV([SHFWHGJURZWKBANCODEESPAA41DOCUMENTODETRABAJON.
1026)LJXUH5HDOWLPHUHFHVVLRQSUREDELOLWLHV+DUGLQGLFDWRUVRecessionIPIINOSalesExports6RIWLQGLFDWRUVRecessionESIIFOBNBPMISPMIM)LJXUH(YROXWLRQRILQGLFDWRUV1RWHV+DUGLQGLFDWRUVDUHLQJURZWKUDWHVZKLOHVRIWLQGLFDWRUVDUHLQOHYHOV7KHVKDGHGDUHDUHIHUWRWKHUHFHVVLRQPDUNHGE\WKHSHFNDQGWKURXJKRI7DEOHBANCODEESPAAPUBLICATIONSWORKINGPAPERS10901PRAVEENKUJALANDJUANRUIZ:Internationaltradepolicytowardsmonopolyandoligopoly.
0902CATIABATISTA,AITORLACUESTAANDPEDROVICENTE:Microevidenceofthebraingainhypothesis:ThecaseofCapeVerde.
0903MARGARITARUBIO:Fixedandvariable-ratemortgages,businesscyclesandmonetarypolicy.
0904MARIOIZQUIERDO,AITORLACUESTAANDRAQUELVEGAS:AssimilationofimmigrantsinSpain:Alongitudinalanalysis.
0905NGELESTRADA:Themark-upsintheSpanisheconomy:internationalcomparisonandrecentevolution.
0906RICARDOGIMENOANDJOSMANUELMARQUS:Extractionoffinancialmarketexpectationsaboutinflationandinterestratesfromaliquidmarket.
0907LAURAHOSPIDO:Jobchangesandindividual-jobspecificwagedynamics.
0908M.
aDELOSLLANOSMATEAANDJUANS.
MORA-SANGUINETTI:DevelopmentsinretailtraderegulationinSpainandtheirmacroeconomicimplications.
(TheoriginalSpanishversionhasthesamenumber.
)0909JAVIERMENCAANDENRIQUESENTANA:Multivariatelocation-scalemixturesofnormalsandmean-variance-skewnessportfolioallocation.
0910ALICIAGARCA-HERRERO,SERGIOGAVILANDDANIELSANTABRBARA:WhatexplainsthelowprofitabilityofChinesebanks0911JAVIERMENCA:Assessingtherisk-returntrade-offinloansportfolios.
0912MAXIMOCAMACHOANDGABRIELPEREZ-QUIROS:-STING:EspaaShortTermIndicatorofGrowth.
0913RAQUELVEGAS,ISABELARGIMN,MARTABOTELLAANDCLARAI.
GONZLEZ:RetirementbehaviourandretirementincentivesinSpain.
0914FEDERICOCINGANO,MARCOLEONARDI,JULINMESSINAANDGIOVANNIPICA:Theeffectofemploymentprotectionlegislationandfinancialmarketimperfectionsoninvestment:Evidencefromafirm-levelpanelofEUcountries.
0915JOSMANUELCAMPAANDIGNACIOHERNANDO:Cash,accesstocredit,andvaluecreationinM&As.
0916MARGARITARUBIO:Housingmarketheterogeneityinamonetaryunion.
0917MAXIMOCAMACHO,GABRIELPEREZ-QUIROSANDHUGORODRGUEZMENDIZBAL:High-growthRecoveries,InventoriesandtheGreatModeration.
0918KAICHRISTOFFEL,JAMESCOSTAIN,GREGORYDEWALQUE,KEITHKUESTER,TOBIASLINZERT,STEPHENMILLARDANDOLIVIERPIERRARD:Wage,inflationandemploymentdynamicswithlabourmarketmatching.
0919JESSVZQUEZ,RAMNMARA-DOLORESANDJUAN-MIGUELLONDOO:OntheinformationalroleoftermstructureintheU.
S.
monetarypolicyrule.
0920PALOMALPEZ-GARCAANDSERGIOPUENTE:Whatmakesahigh-growthfirmAprobitanalysisusingSpanishfirm-leveldata.
0921FABIOCANOVA,MATTEOCICCARELLIANDEVAORTEGA:DoinstitutionalchangesaffectbusinesscyclesEvidencefromEurope.
0922GALONUO:Technology,convergenceandbusinesscycles.
0923FRANCISCODECASTROANDJOSLUISFERNNDEZ:TherelationshipbetweenpublicandprivatesavinginSpain:doesRicardianequivalencehold0924GONZALOFERNNDEZ-DE-CRDOBA,JAVIERJ.
PREZANDJOSL.
TORRES:Publicandprivatesectorwagesinteractionsinageneralequilibriummodel.
0925NGELESTRADAANDJOSMANUELMONTERO:R&Dinvestmentandendogenousgrowth:aSVARapproach.
0926JUANAALEDO,FERNANDOGARCA-MARTNEZANDJUANM.
MARNDIAZARAQUE:Firm-specificfactorsinfluencingtheselectionofaccountingoptionsprovidedbytheIFRS:EmpiricalevidencefromSpanishmarket.
0927JAVIERANDRS,SAMUELHURTADO,EVAORTEGAANDCARLOSTHOMAS:Spainintheeuro:ageneralequilibriumanalysis.
0928MAXGILLMANANDANTONNAKOV:Monetaryeffectsonnominaloilprices.
09290930JAVIERMENCAANDENRIQUESENTANA:DistributionaltestsinmultivariatedynamicmodelswithNormalandStudenttinnovations.
JOANPAREDES,PABLOBURRIEL,FRANCISCODECASTRO,DANIELGARROTE,ESTHERGORDOANDJAVIERJ.
PREZ:FiscalpolicyshocksintheeuroareaandtheUS:anempiricalassessment.
1.
PreviouslypublishedWorkingPapersarelistedintheBancodeEspaapublicationscatalogue.
0931TERESALEAL,DIEGOJ.
PEDREGALANDJAVIERJ.
PREZ:Short-termmonitoringoftheSpanishGovernmentbalancewithmixed-frequenciesmodels.
0932ANTONNAKOVANDGALONUO:Oilgopoly:ageneralequilibriummodeloftheoil-macroeconomynexus.
0933TERESALEALANDJAVIERJ.
PREZ:AnálisisdelasdesviacionespresupuestariasaplicadoalcasodelpresupuestodelEstado.
0934JAVIERJ.
PREZANDA.
JESSSNCHEZ:IsthereasignallingroleforpublicwagesEvidencefortheeuroareabasedonmacrodata.
09351001JOANPAREDES,DIEGOJ.
PEDREGALANDJAVIERJ.
PREZ:Aquarterlyfiscaldatabasefortheeuroareabasedonintra-annualfiscalinformation.
JAVIERANDRS,SCARARCEANDCARLOSTHOMAS:Bankingcompetition,collateralconstraintsandoptimalmonetarypolicy.
1002CRISTINABARCELANDERNESTOVILLANUEVA:Theresponseofhouseholdwealthtotheriskoflosingthejob:evidencefromdifferencesinfiringcosts.
10031004ALEXANDERKARAIVANOV,SONIARUANO,JESSSAURINAANDROBERTTOWNSEND:Nobank,onebank,severalbanks:doesitmatterforinvestmentGABRIELPEREZ-QUIROSANDHUGORODRGUEZMENDIZBAL:Asymmetricstandingfacilities:anunexploitedmonetarypolicytool.
1005100610071008GABRIELJIMNEZ,JOSEA.
LOPEZANDJESSSAURINA:Howdoescompetitionimpactbankrisk-takingGIUSEPPEBERTOLA,AURELIJUSDABUSINSKAS,MARCOHOEBERICHTS,MARIOIZQUIERDO,CLAUDIAKWAPIL,JEREMIMONTORNSANDDANIELRADOWSKI:Price,wageandemploymentresponsetoshocks:evidencefromtheWDNSurvey.
JAVIERMENCA:Testingnon-lineardependenceintheHedgeFundindustry.
ALFREDOMARTN-OLIVER:Fromproximitytodistantbanking:SpanishbanksintheEMU.
1009GALONUO:Optimalresearchanddevelopmentexpenditure:ageneralequilibriumapproach.
101010111012101310141015LUISJ.
LVAREZANDPABLOBURRIEL:IsaCalvopricesettingmodelconsistentwithmicropricedataJENSHAGENDORFF,IGNACIOHERNANDO,MARAJ.
NIETOANDLARRYD.
WALL:WhatdopremiumspaidforbankM&AsreflectThecaseoftheEuropeanUnion.
DAVIDDEANTONIOLIEDO:Generalequilibriumrestrictionsfordynamicfactormodels.
JAMESCOSTAIN,JUANF.
JIMENOANDCARLOSTHOMAS:Employmentfluctuationsinaduallabormarket.
LUISM.
VICEIRAANDRICARDOGIMENO:Theeuroasareservecurrencyforglobalinvestors.
PALOMALPEZ-GARCAANDJOSMANUELMONTERO:UnderstandingtheSpanishbusinessinnovationgap:Theroleofspilloversandfirms'absorptivecapacity.
10161017101810191020102110221023102410251026AITORLACUESTAANDSERGIOPUENTE:ElefectodelcicloeconómicoenlasentradasysalidasdeinmigrantesenEspaa.
REBEKKACHRISTOPOULOU,JUANF.
JIMENOANDANALAMO:ChangesinthewagestructureinEUcountries.
THOMASBREUER,MARTINJANDAKA,JAVIERMENCAANDMARTINSUMMER:Asystematicapproachtomulti-periodstresstestingofportfoliocreditrisk.
LUISJ.
LVAREZANDPABLOBURRIEL:Micro-basedestimatesofheterogeneouspricingrules:TheUnitedStatesvs.
theeuroarea.
ALFREDOMARTN-OLIVERANDVICENTESALAS-FUMS:I.
T.
investmentandintangibles:Evidencefrombanks.
LUISALAMBERTINI,CATERINAMENDICINOANDMARIATERESAPUNZI:Expectations-drivencyclesinthehousingmarket.
JULINMESSINA,PHILIPDUCAJU,CLUDIAFILIPADUARTE,NIELSLYNGGRDHANSENANDMARIOIZQUIERDO:Theincidenceofnominalandrealwagerigidity:anindividual-basedsectoralapproach.
ALESSIOMORO:Development,growthandvolatility.
LUISJ.
LVAREZANDALBERTOCABRERO:DoeshousingreallyleadthebusinesscycleJUANS.
MORA-SANGUINETTI:IsjudicialinefficiencyincreasingthehousepropertymarketweightinSpainEvidenceatthelocallevel.
MAXIMOCAMACHO,GABRIELPEREZ-QUIROSANDPILARPONCELA:GreenshootsintheEuroarea.
Arealtimemeasure.
UnidaddePublicacionesAlcalá,522;28027MadridTelephone+34913386363.
Fax+34919986488E-mail:publicaciones@bde.
eswww.
bde.
es