trickeryiwillneverletgo

May-June2002/AnnalsofImprobableResearch13WhyIWillNeverHaveaGirlfriendWhyIWillNeverHaveaGirlfriendWhyIWillNeverHaveaGirlfriendWhyIWillNeverHaveaGirlfriendWhyIWillNeverHaveaGirlfriendbyTristanMillerDepartmentofComputerScienceUniversityofTorontoInformalempiricalandanecdotalevidencefromthe(male)scientificcommunityhaslongpointedtothedifficultyinsecuringdecent,long-termfemalecompanionship.
Todate,however,noonehaspublishedarigorousstudyofthematter.
Inthisessay,theauthorinvestigateshimselfasacasestudyandpresentsaproof,usingsimplestatisticalcalculus,ofwhyitisimpossibletofindagirlfriend.
WhyDon'tIHaveaGirlfriendThisisaquestionthatpracticallyeverymalehasaskedhimselfatonepointoranotherinhislife.
Unfortu-nately,thereisrarelyahardandfastanswertothequery.
Manymentrytoreasontheirwaythroughthedilemmanonetheless,oftenreachingaseriesofridiculousexplanations,eachmoreself-deprecatingthanthelast:"IsitbecauseI'mtooshy,andnotaggressiveenoughIsitmyopeninglinesAmIaboringpersonAmItoofatortoothinOramIsimplyuglyandcompletelyunattractivetowomen"Whenallotherplausibleexplanationshavebeendiscounted,mostfallbackonthetime-honouredconclusionthat"theremustbeSomethingWrongwithme"beforeresigningthemselvestolivesofperpetualchastity.
1Nottheauthor,though.
I,forone,refusetospendmylifebroodingovermylackofluckwithwomen.
WhileI'llbethefirsttoadmitthatmychancesofeverenteringintoameaningfulrelationshipwithsomeonespecialarepracticallynon-existent,Istaunchlyrefusetoadmitthatithasanythingtodowithsomeinherentproblemwithme.
Instead,Iamconvincedthatthesituationcanbereadilyexplainedinpurelyscientificterms,usingnothingmorethandemographicsandsomeelementarystatisticalcalculus.
Lestanyonesuspectthatmystandardsforwomenaretoohigh,letmeallaythosefearsbyenumeratinginadvancemythreecriteriaforthematch.
First,thepotentialgirlfriendmustbeapproximatelymyage—let'ssay21plusorminusthreeorfouryears.
Second,thegirlmustbebeautiful(andIusethattermall-encompassinglytorefertobothinnerandouterbeauty).
Third,shemustalsobereasonablyintelligent—shedoesn'thavetobeMensamaterial,buttheabilitytocarryonawitty,insightfulargumentwouldbenice.
Sotheretheyare—threesimpledemands,whichI'msureeveryonewillagreeareanythingbutunreason-able.
Thatsaid,Inowpresentmydemonstrationofwhytheprobabilityoffindingasuitablecandidatefulfillingthethreeabove-notedrequirementsissosmallastobepracticallyimpossible—inotherwords,whyIwillneverhaveagirlfriend.
Ishallendeavourtomakethisproofasrigorousastheavailabledatapermits.
AndIshouldnote,too,thattherewillbenostatisticaltrickeryinvolvedhere;Ihavecitedallmysourcesandprovidedallrelevantcalculations2incaseanyonewishestoconducttheirownindependentreview.
Let'snowtakealookatthefigures.
NumberofpeopleonEarth(in1998):5,592,830,000[CB99,TableA–3]WestartwiththelargestdemographicinwhichIaminterested—namely,thepopulationofthisplanet.
ThatisnottosayI'magainsttheideaofinterstellarromance,ofcourse;Ijustdon'tassesstheprospectofFigure1.
Arepresentativesampleofindividualswhowillneverbetheauthor'sgirlfriend.
Photo:LibraryofCongress.
14AnnalsofImprobableResearch/May-June2002findingmyselfaniceAltairiangirlasstatisticallysignificant.
Nowanyway,thelatesthalfway-reliablefigureswehaveforEarth'spopulationcomefromtheUnitedStatesCensusBureau's1999WorldPopulationProfile[CB99].
Duepresumablytothetimeinvolvedincompilingandprocessingcensusstatistics,saidreport'sdataisvalidonlyasof1998,solateronwe'llbemakingsomeimpromptuadjustmentstobringthenumbersuptodate.
…whoarefemale:2,941,118,000[CB99,TableA–7]I'd'vethoughtthat,giventhetitleofthisessay,thiscriteriongoeswithoutsaying.
Incaseanyonemissedit,though,Iamlookingforexclusivelyfemalecompanionship.
Accordingly,roughlyhalfoftheEarth'spopula-tionmustbediscounted.
Sorry,guys.
…in"developed"countries:605,601,000[CB99,TableA–7]Wenowfurtherrestrictthegeographicalareaofinteresttoso-called"first-worldcountries".
Myreasonsfordoingsoarenotmotivatedoutofcontemptforthosewhoareeconomicallydisadvantaged,butratherbysimpleprobability.
MychancesofmeetingababefromBhutanoragoddessfromGhana,eitherinpersonorontheInternet,areunderstandablylow.
Infact,IwillmostlikelyspendnearlymyentirelifelivingandworkinginNorthAmerica,Europe,andAustralia,soitistothesetypesofregionsthatthenumbershavebeennarrowed.
…currently(in2000)aged18to25:65,399,083[CB99,TablesA–3,A–7]Beingneitherapedophilenorageriatrophile,Iwouldliketorestrictmysearchforlovetothosewhoseageisapproximatelyequaltomyown.
Thisiswherethingsgetabittricky,fortworeasons:first,thecensusdataisnearlytwoyearsold,andsecond,the"populationbyage"tablesinWP/98arenotseparatedintoindi-vidualagesbutareinsteadquantizedinto"15–19"(ofwhomthereare39,560,000)and"20–44"(population215,073,000).
Womenaged15to19in1998willbeaged17to21in2000;inthisgroup,I'minterestedindatingthose18orolder,so,assumingthe"15–19"girls'agesareuniformlydistributed,wehave000.
64831115191182100056039=++Similarly,of1998's"20–44"category,therearenow680411341204412225000073215=++femaleswithinmychosenagelimit.
Thesum,66059680,representsthetotalnumberoffemalesaged18to25indevelopedcountriesin2000.
Unfortunately,roughly1%ofthesegirlswillhavediedsincethecensuswastaken.
3Thus,thetruenumberofso-fareligiblebachelorettesis65399083.
Figure2.
Anotherrepresentativesampleofindividualswhowillneverbetheauthor'sgirlfriend.
Photo:LibraryofCongress.
May-June2002/AnnalsofImprobableResearch15…whoarebeautiful:1,487,838Personalattraction,bothphysicallyandpersonality-wise,isanimportantinstigatorofanyrelationship.
Ofcourse,beautyisapurelysubjectivetraitwhoseinterpretationmayvaryfrompersontoperson.
Luckilyitisnotnecessaryformetodefinebeautyinthisessayexcepttostatethatforanygivenbeholder,itwillprobablybenormallydistributedamongstthepopulation.
4WithoutgoingintothespecificsofpreciselywhichtraitsIadmire,Iwillsaythatforagirltobeconsideredreallybeautifultome,sheshouldfallatleasttwostandarddeviationsabovethenorm.
Frombasicstatisticstheory,theareatotheleftofthenormalcurveatz=2is02275.
0212120221∪dzezπandsoitisthisnumberwithwhichwemultiplyourcurrentpopulationpool.
…andintelligent:236,053Again,intelligencecanmeandifferentthingstodifferentpeople,yetIamoncemorerelievedofmakinganyexplanationbynotingthatit,likemostothercharacteristics,hasanotionallynormaldistributionacrossthepopulation.
Let'sassumethatIwillsettleforsomeoneamereonestandarddeviationabovethenormal;inthatcase,afurther%1345.
84212110221∪+dzezπofthepopulationmustbediscounted.
…andnotalreadycommitted:118,027Icouldfindnohardstatisticsonthenumberofabove-notedgirlswhoarealreadymarried,engaged,orotherwisecommittedtoasignificantother,butinformalobservationandanecdotalevidenceleadsmetobelievethattheproportionissomewherearound50%.
(Fellowunattachedmaleswillnodoubthavealsonoticedapreponderanceofgirlslegitimatelyoffering,"Sorry,Ialreadyhaveaboyfriend"asanexcusenottogoonadate.
)Forreasonsofmorality(andperhapstooself-preservation),I'mnotabouttostarthittingongirlswhohavehusbandsandboyfriends.
Accordingly,thatportionofthefemalepopulationmustalsobeconsideredoff-limits.
…andalsomightlikeme:18,726Naturally,findingasuitablegirlwhoIreallylikeisnoguaranteethatshe'lllikemeback.
Assuming,aspreviouslymentioned,thatpersonalattractivenessisnormallydistributed,thereisamere50%chancethatanygivenfemalewillconsidermeevenmarginallyattractive.
Inpractice,however,peopleareunlikelytoconsiderpursuingarelationshipwithsomeonewhoselooksandpersonalityjustbarelysuffice.
Let'smaketheratherconservativeassumption,then,thatagirlwouldgooutwithsomeoneifandonlyiftheywereatleastonestandarddeviationaboveherideaofaverage.
Inthatcase,referringtoourpreviouscalculation,only15.
8655%offemaleswouldconsidersomeonewithmyphysicalcharacteristicsandpersonalityaccept-ableasapotentialromanticpartner.
Figure3.
Athirdrepresentativesampleofindividualswhowillneverbetheauthor'sgirlfriend.
Photo:LibraryofCongress.
16AnnalsofImprobableResearch/May-June2002ConclusionItishere,atapoolof18,726acceptablefemales,thatweendourstatisticalanalysis.
Atfirstglance,adatablepopulationof18,726maynotseemlikesuchalownumber,butconsiderthis:assumingIweretogoonablinddatewithanewgirlaboutmyageeveryweek,Iwouldhavetodatefor3,493weeksbeforeIfoundoneofthe18,726.
That'sverynearly67years.
AsaNorthAmericanmaleborninthelate1970s,mylifeexpectancyisprobablylittlemorethan70years,sowecansafelysaythatIwillbequitedeadbeforeIfindtheproverbialgirlofmydreams.
Cometothinkofit,she'llprobablybedeadtoo.
Reference[CB99]U.
S.
BureauoftheCensus.
ReportWP/98,WorldPopulationProfile:1998.
U.
S.
GovernmentPrintingOffice,Washington,DC,1999.
Notes1.
Afterashortperiodofbrooding,ofcourse,thesemaleswilleventuallycometotherealizationthattherealreasontheywereneverabletogetagirlfriendisthattheyweretoodiscriminatingwiththeirattentions.
Theywillconsequentlyreturntothedatingscene,enteringasequenceofblasérelationshipswithmediocregirlsforwhomtheydon'treallycare,untiltheyfinallymarryoneoutoffearofspendingtherestoftheirlivesalone.
Iamconvincedthatthisbehaviouristherealreasonfortoday'salarminglyhighdivorcerate.
2.
Duetorounding,figurescitedmaynotaddupexactly.
3.
[CB99]givestheannualdeathratefordevelopedcountriesas10per1000,butdoesnotlistdeathratesperagegroup.
Presumably,thedeathrategraphsasabathtubcurve,butintheabsenceofanynumberssup-portingthishypothesis,andforthesakeofsimplicity,Iwillconservativelyestimatethedeathrateamongthisagegrouptobe1%biennially.
4.
Despitemyeffortstoresearchthematter,Icouldfindnodataonthedistributionofbeauty,eitherouterorinner,amongstthepopulation.
Perhapsattractiveness,beingalargelysubjectivetrait,doesnotlenditselftoquantification.
Itisnotunreasonable,however,toassumethatlikemostothertraits,ithasanormaldistribu-tion.
Indeed,thisassumptionseemstobebackedupbyinformalobservationandjudgment—inanyreasonablylargegroupofpeople,mostofthemwillbeaverage-looking,andatinyminorityeitherexceed-inglybeautifulorexceedinglyugly.
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