lowestselected

SELECTEDREADINGSFocuson:PaulKrugmanOctober2008INDEXINTRODUCTION.
91WORKINGPAPERS111.
1RichardBaldwin;PaulKrugman,2001.
"Agglomeration,IntegrationandTaxHarmonization,"HEIWorkingPapersHEIWP01-2001,EconomicsSection,TheGraduateInstituteofInternationalStudies.
111.
2PaulKrugman,1996.
"HowtheEconomyOrganizesItselfinSpace:ASurveyoftheNewEconomicGeography,"WorkingPapers96-04-021,SantaFeInstitute.
111.
3PaulKrugman,1996.
"DomesticDistortionsandtheDeindustrializationHypothesis,"NBERWorkingPapers5473,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
121.
4PaulKrugman&Venables,AnthonyJ.
,1995.
"TheSeamlessWorld:ASpatialModelofInternationalSpecialization,"CEPRDiscussionPapers1230,C.
E.
P.
R.
DiscussionPapers.
131.
5PaulKrugman,1995.
"Technology,Trade,andFactorPrices,"NBERWorkingPapers5355,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
131.
6PaulKrugman,1994.
"Fluctuations,Instability,andAgglomeration,"NBERWorkingPapers4616,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
141.
7PaulKrugman&Venables,AnthonyJ.
,1994.
"GlobalizationandtheInequalityofNations,"CEPRDiscussionPapers1015,C.
E.
P.
R.
DiscussionPapers.
141.
8EliseS.
Brezis&PaulKrugman,1993.
"Immigration,InvestmentandRealWages,"NBERWorkingPapers4563,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
151.
9PaulKrugman,1993.
"InequalityandthePoliticalEconomyofEurosclerosis,"CEPRDiscussionPapers867,C.
E.
P.
R.
DiscussionPapers.
151.
10PaulKrugman&RobertLawrence,1993.
"Trade,Jobs,andWages,"NBERWorkingPapers4478,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
161.
11PaulKrugman,1992.
"ADynamicSpatialModel,"NBERWorkingPapers4219,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
161.
12RaulLivasElizondo&PaulKrugman,1992.
"TradePolicyandtheThirdWorldMetropolis,"NBERWorkingPapers4238,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
161.
13PaulKrugman,1991.
"CitiesinSpace:ThreeSimpleModels,"NBERWorkingPapers3607,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
171.
14PaulKrugman,1991.
"FirstNature,SecondNature,andMetropolitanLocation,"NBERWorkingPapers3740,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
171.
15PaulKrugman,1990.
"IncreasingReturnsandEconomicGeography,"NBERWorkingPapers3275,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
18SelectedReadings–October200821.
16PaulKrugman&JulioRotemberg,1990.
"TargetZoneswithLimitedReserves,"NBERWorkingPapers3418,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
181.
17PaulKrugman&Venables,AnthonyJ.
,1990.
"IntegrationandtheCompetitivenessofPeripheralIndustry,"CEPRDiscussionPapers363,C.
E.
P.
R.
DiscussionPapers.
181.
18PaulR.
Krugman,1988.
"Market-BasedDebt-ReductionSchemes,"NBERWorkingPapers2587,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
191.
19PaulKrugman,1989.
"HistoryVs.
Expectations,"NBERWorkingPapers2971,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
191.
20PaulKrugman&MartinFeldstein,1989.
"InternationalTradeEffectsofValueAddedTaxation,"NBERWorkingPapers3163,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
201.
21PaulR.
Krugman,1989.
"Financingvs.
ForgivingaDebtOverhang,"NBERWorkingPapers2486,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
211.
22PaulKrugman,1989.
"IsBilateralismBad,"NBERWorkingPapers2972,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
211.
23PaulKrugman,1989.
"DifferencesinIncomeElasticitiesandTrendsinRealExchangeRates,"NBERWorkingPapers2761,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
221.
24PaulKrugman,1987.
"AdjustmentintheWorldEconomy,"NBERWorkingPapers2424,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
221.
25PaulR.
Krugman,1988.
"TargetZonesandExchangeRateDynamics,"NBERWorkingPapers2481,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
231.
26PaulR.
Krugman,1988.
"Deindustrialization,Reindustrialization,andtheRealExchangeRate,"NBERWorkingPapers2586,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
231.
27PaulKrugman,1987.
"TriggerStrategiesandPriceDynamicsinEquityandForeignExchangeMarkets,"NBERWorkingPapers2459,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
.
.
.
.
241.
28PaulKrugman,1986.
"PricingtoMarketwhentheExchangeRateChanges,"NBERWorkingPapers1926,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
241.
29PaulKrugman,1986.
"IndustrialOrganizationandInternationalTrade,"NBERWorkingPapers1957,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
251.
30RichardE.
Baldwin&PaulKrugman,1986.
"MarketAccessandInternationalCompetition:ASimulationStudyof16KRandomAccessMemories,"NBERWorkingPapers1936,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
251.
31PaulKrugman,1986.
"IstheJapanProblemOver,"NBERWorkingPapers1962,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
261.
32PaulKrugman,1985.
"IstheStrongDollarSustainable,"NBERWorkingPapers1644,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
261.
33RichardBaldwin&PaulKrugman,1986.
"PersistentTradeEffectsofLargeExchangeRateShocks,"NBERWorkingPapers2017,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
27SelectedReadings–October200831.
34PaulKrugman,1985.
"IncreasingReturnsandtheTheoryofInternationalTrade,"NBERWorkingPapers1752,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
271.
35PaulKrugman,1983.
"OilandtheDollar,"NBERWorkingPapers0554,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
281.
36PaulKrugman&TorstenPersson&LarsE.
O.
Svensson,1982.
"Inflation,MonetaryVelocity,andWelfare,"NBERWorkingPapers0987,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc281.
37PaulKrugman,1979.
"InternationalTradeandIncomeDistribution:AReconsideration,"NBERWorkingPapers0356,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
281.
38PaulKrugman,1981.
"RealExchangeRateAdjustmentandtheWelfareEffectsofOilPriceDecontrol,"NBERWorkingPapers0658,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
291.
39PaulKrugman,1981.
"ConsumptionPreferences,AssetDemands,andDistributionEffectsinInternationalFinancialMarkets,"NBERWorkingPapers0651,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
301.
40PaulKrugman,1979.
"VehicleCurrenciesandtheStructureofInternationalExchange,"NBERWorkingPapers0333,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
302ARTICLES.
322.
1PaulKrugman,2008.
"ResponsetoNelsonandSchwartz,"JournalofMonetaryEconomics,Elsevier,vol.
55(4),pages857-860,May.
322.
2PaulKrugman,2007.
"Willtherebeadollarcrisis,"EconomicPolicy,CEPR,CES,MSH,vol.
22,pages435-467,07.
322.
3DeanBaker&J.
BradfordDelong&PaulKrugman,2005.
"AssetReturnsandEconomicGrowth,"BrookingsPapersonEconomicActivity,EconomicStudiesProgram,TheBrookingsInstitution,vol.
36(2005-1),pages289-330.
332.
4PaulKrugman,2004.
"ConfusionsaboutSocialSecurity,"TheEconomists'Voice,BerkeleyElectronicPress,vol.
2(1),pages1332.
5MasahisaFujita&PaulKrugman,2004.
"Theneweconomicgeography:Past,presentandthefuture,"EconomicsofGovernance,Springer,vol.
83(1),pages139-164,October.
332.
6PaulKrugman,2002.
"EcharemosdemenosaTobin,"RevistadeEconomíaInstitucional,UniversidadExternadodeColombia-FacultaddeEconomía,vol.
4(6),pages197-199,January-J.
.
342.
7PaulKrugman,2000.
"ThinkingabouttheLiquidityTrap,"JournaloftheJapaneseandInternationalEconomies,Elsevier,vol.
14(4),pages221-237,December.
342.
8PaulKrugman,2000.
"CanAmericaStayonTop,"JournalofEconomicPerspectives,AmericanEconomicAssociation,vol.
14(1),pages169-175,Winter.
352.
9PaulKrugman,2000.
"Crises:thepriceofglobalization,"Proceedings,FederalReserveBankofKansasCity,pages75-106.
352.
10PaulKrugman,2000.
"HowComplicatedDoestheModelHavetoBe,"OxfordReviewofEconomicPolicy,OxfordUniversityPress,vol.
16(4),pages33-42,Winter.
35SelectedReadings–October200842.
11PaulKrugman,2000.
"Technology,tradeandfactorprices,"JournalofInternationalEconomics,Elsevier,vol.
50(1),pages51-71,February.
352.
12Fujita,Masahisa&PaulKrugman&Mori,Tomoya,1999.
"Ontheevolutionofhierarchicalurbansystems,"EuropeanEconomicReview,Elsevier,vol.
43(2),pages209-251,February.
362.
13PaulKrugman,1999.
"BalanceSheets,theTransferProblem,andFinancialCrises,"InternationalTaxandPublicFinance,Springer,vol.
6(4),pages459-472,November.
362.
14PaulKrugman,1998.
"It'sBaaack:Japan'sSlumpandtheReturnoftheLiquidityTrap,"BrookingsPapersonEconomicActivity,EconomicStudiesProgram,TheBrookingsInstitution,vol.
29(1998-2),pages137-206.
372.
15PaulKrugman,1998.
"Space:TheFinalFrontier,"JournalofEconomicPerspectives,AmericanEconomicAssociation,vol.
12(2),pages161-74.
382.
16PaulKrugman,1998.
"TwoCheersforFormalism,"EconomicJournal,RoyalEconomicSociety,vol.
108(451),pages1829-36,November.
382.
17PaulKrugman,1998.
"What'sNewabouttheNewEconomicGeography,"OxfordReviewofEconomicPolicy,OxfordUniversityPress,vol.
14(2),pages7-17.
382.
18Brezis,EliseS&PaulKrugman,1997.
"TechnologyandtheLifeCycleofCities,"JournalofEconomicGrowth,Springer,vol.
2(4),pages369-83,December.
382.
19PaulKrugman,1997.
"WhyShouldTradeNegotiatorsNegotiateAbout,"JournalofEconomicLiterature,AmericanEconomicAssociation,vol.
35(1),pages113-120,March.
392.
20PaulKrugman&Elizondo,RaulLivas,1996.
"TradepolicyandtheThirdWorldmetropolis,"JournalofDevelopmentEconomics,Elsevier,vol.
49(1),pages137-150,April.
392.
21PaulKrugman,1996.
"MakingSenseoftheCompetitivenessDebate,"OxfordReviewofEconomicPolicy,OxfordUniversityPress,vol.
12(3),pages17-25,Autumn.
402.
22PaulKrugman&Venables,AnthonyJ.
,1996.
"Integration,specialization,andadjustment,"EuropeanEconomicReview,Elsevier,vol.
40(3-5),pages959-967,April.
402.
23PaulKrugman,1996.
"ConfrontingtheMysteryofUrbanHierarchy,"JournaloftheJapaneseandInternationalEconomies,Elsevier,vol.
10(4),pages399-418,December.
412.
24Fujita,Masahisa&PaulKrugman,1995.
"Whenistheeconomymonocentric:vonThunenandChamberlinunified,"RegionalScienceandUrbanEconomics,Elsevier,vol.
25(4),pages505-528,August.
412.
25PaulKrugman,1995.
"Americaintheworldeconomy:Understandingthemisunderstandings,"JapanandtheWorldEconomy,Elsevier,vol.
7(2),pages233-247,July.
422.
26PaulKrugman,1995.
"Innovationandagglomeration:Twoparablessuggestedbycity-sizedistributions,"JapanandtheWorldEconomy,Elsevier,vol.
7(4),pages371-390,November.
422.
27PaulKrugman,1995.
"GrowingWorldTrade:CausesandConsequences,"BrookingsPapersonEconomicActivity,EconomicStudiesProgram,TheBrookingsInstitution,vol.
26(1995-1),pages327-377.
42SelectedReadings–October200852.
28PaulKrugman,1994.
"ComplexLandscapesinEconomicGeography,"AmericanEconomicReview,AmericanEconomicAssociation,vol.
84(2),pages412-16,May.
422.
29PaulKrugman&Miller,Marcus,1993.
"Whyhaveatargetzone,"Carnegie-RochesterConferenceSeriesonPublicPolicy,Elsevier,vol.
38(1),pages279-314,June.
432.
30PaulKrugman,1993.
"Onthenumberandlocationofcities,"EuropeanEconomicReview,Elsevier,vol.
37(2-3),pages293-298,April.
432.
31PaulKrugman,1993.
"TheNarrowandBroadArgumentsforFreeTrade,"AmericanEconomicReview,AmericanEconomicAssociation,vol.
83(2),pages362-66,May.
432.
32PaulKrugman,1993.
"WhatDoUndergradsNeedtoKnowaboutTrade,"AmericanEconomicReview,AmericanEconomicAssociation,vol.
83(2),pages23-26,May.
432.
33PaulKrugman,1992.
"SecondthoughtsonEMU,"JapanandtheWorldEconomy,Elsevier,vol.
4(3),pages187-200,November.
432.
34PaulKrugman,1991.
"IncreasingReturnsandEconomicGeography,"JournalofPoliticalEconomy,UniversityofChicagoPress,vol.
99(3),pages483-99,June.
442.
35PaulKrugman,1991.
"HistoryversusExpectations,"TheQuarterlyJournalofEconomics,MITPress,vol.
106(2),pages651-67,May.
442.
36PaulKrugman,1991.
"Exchangeratesandpolicycoordination:PeterB.
Kenen,(ManchesterUniversityPress,1989)pp.
135,JournalofInternationalEconomics,Elsevier,vol.
30(1-2),pages195-197,February.
452.
37PaulKrugman,1991.
"HistoryandIndustryLocation:TheCaseoftheManufacturingBelt,"AmericanEconomicReview,AmericanEconomicAssociation,vol.
81(2),pages80-83,May.
452.
38PaulKrugman,1991.
"TargetZonesandExchangeRateDynamics,"TheQuarterlyJournalofEconomics,MITPress,vol.
106(3),pages669-82,August.
452.
39PaulKrugman,1991.
"Themovetowardfreetradezones,"EconomicReview,FederalReserveBankofKansasCity,issueNov,pages5-25.
452.
40PaulKrugman,1990.
"Multinationalenterprise:Theoldandthenewinhistoryandtheory,"NorthAmericanReviewofEconomicsandFinance,Elsevier,vol.
1(2),pages267-280.
.
.
.
.
.
.
452.
41PaulKrugman,1990.
"'Factormarketbarriersaretradebarriers'byR.
Baldwin,"EuropeanEconomicReview,Elsevier,vol.
34(4),pages846-847,June.
462.
42PaulKrugman,1989.
"Comments'ontheinternationalcapitalownershippatternattheturnofthetwenty-firstcentury'byKoichiHamadaandKazumasaIwata,"EuropeanEconomicReview,Elsevier,vol.
33(5),pages1083-1085,May.
462.
43PaulKrugman,1989.
"TheJ-Curve,theFireSale,andtheHardLanding,"AmericanEconomicReview,AmericanEconomicAssociation,vol.
79(2),pages31-35,May.
462.
44PaulKrugman,1989.
"Differencesinincomeelasticitiesandtrendsinrealexchangerates,"EuropeanEconomicReview,Elsevier,vol.
33(5),pages1031-1046,May.
46SelectedReadings–October200862.
45Baldwin,Richard&PaulKrugman,1989.
"PersistentTradeEffectsofLargeExchangeRateShocks,"TheQuarterlyJournalofEconomics,MITPress,vol.
104(4),pages635-54,November.
472.
46PaulKrugman,1988.
"Financingvs.
forgivingadebtoverhang,"JournalofDevelopmentEconomics,Elsevier,vol.
29(3),pages253-268,November.
472.
47PaulKrugman,1988.
"Exchangeratesandinternationaladjustment,"JapanandtheWorldEconomy,Elsevier,vol.
1(1),pages63-87,October.
482.
48PaulKrugman,1987.
"IsFreeTradePassé,"JournalofEconomicPerspectives,AmericanEconomicAssociation,vol.
1(2),pages131-44,Fall.
482.
49PaulKrugman,1987.
"Thenarrowmovingband,theDutchdisease,andthecompetitiveconsequencesofMrs.
Thatcher:Notesontradeinthepresenceofdynamicscaleeconomies,"JournalofDevelopmentEconomics,Elsevier,vol.
27(1-2),pages41-55,October.
482.
50PaulKrugman&RichardE.
Baldwin,1987.
"ThePersistenceoftheU.
S.
TradeDeficit,"BrookingsPapersonEconomicActivity,EconomicStudiesProgram,TheBrookingsInstitution,vol.
18(1987-1),pages1-56.
482.
51PaulKrugman,1986.
"Internationaldebt:Systemicriskandpolicyresponse:WilliamR.
Cline,(InstituteforInternationalEconomics,Washington,1984)pp.
xix+317,"JournalofInternationalEconomics,Elsevier,vol.
20(3-4),pages389-391,May.
492.
52PaulKrugman&TorstenPersson&LarsE.
O.
Svensson,1985.
"Inflation,InterestRates,andWelfare,"TheQuarterlyJournalofEconomics,MITPress,vol.
100(3),pages677-95,August.
492.
53PaulKrugman,1984.
"TheU.
S.
ResponsetoForeignIndustrialTargeting,"BrookingsPapersonEconomicActivity,EconomicStudiesProgram,TheBrookingsInstitution,vol.
15(1984-1),pages77-132.
492.
54PaulKrugman,1983.
"NewTheoriesofTradeamongIndustrialCountries,"AmericanEconomicReview,AmericanEconomicAssociation,vol.
73(2),pages343-47,May.
492.
55Brander,James&PaulKrugman,1983.
"A'reciprocaldumping'modelofinternationaltrade,"JournalofInternationalEconomics,Elsevier,vol.
15(3-4),pages313-321,November.
492.
56PaulKrugman,1982.
"'Simulatinganoilshockwithstickyprices'byGiavazziet.
al,"EuropeanEconomicReview,Elsevier,vol.
18(1),pages37-39a.
502.
57PaulKrugman,1982.
"Themacroeconomicsofprotectionwithafloatingexchangerate,"Carnegie-RochesterConferenceSeriesonPublicPolicy,Elsevier,vol.
16(1),pages141-182,January.
502.
58PaulKrugman,1981.
"IntraindustrySpecializationandtheGainsfromTrade,"JournalofPoliticalEconomy,UniversityofChicagoPress,vol.
89(5),pages959-73,October.
502.
59PaulKrugman,1981.
"Trade,accumulation,andunevendevelopment,"JournalofDevelopmentEconomics,Elsevier,vol.
8(2),pages149-161,April.
502.
60PaulKrugman,1980.
"ScaleEconomies,ProductDifferentiation,andthePatternofTrade,"AmericanEconomicReview,AmericanEconomicAssociation,vol.
70(5),pages950-59,December.
51SelectedReadings–October200872.
61PaulKrugman,1980.
"VehicleCurrenciesandtheStructureofInternationalExchange,"JournalofMoney,CreditandBanking,BlackwellPublishing,vol.
12(3),pages513-26,August.
.
.
.
.
.
.
512.
62PaulKrugman,1979.
"AModelofInnovation,TechnologyTransfer,andtheWorldDistributionofIncome,"JournalofPoliticalEconomy,UniversityofChicagoPress,vol.
87(2),pages253-66,April.
512.
63PaulKrugman,1979.
"Increasingreturns,monopolisticcompetition,andinternationaltrade,"JournalofInternationalEconomics,Elsevier,vol.
9(4),pages469-79,November.
512.
64PaulKrugman,1979.
"AModelofBalance-of-PaymentsCrises,"JournalofMoney,CreditandBanking,BlackwellPublishing,vol.
11(3),pages311-25,August.
512.
65PaulKrugman&Taylor,Lance,1978.
"Contractionaryeffectsofdevaluation,"JournalofInternationalEconomics,Elsevier,vol.
8(3),pages445-56,August.
512.
66PaulKrugman,1978.
"Purchasingpowerparityandexchangerates:Anotherlookattheevidence,"JournalofInternationalEconomics,Elsevier,vol.
8(3),pages397-407,August.
522.
67RudigerDornbusch&PaulKrugman,1976.
"FlexibleExchangeRatesintheShortRun,"BrookingsPapersonEconomicActivity,EconomicStudiesProgram,TheBrookingsInstitution,vol.
7(1976-3),pages537-584.
523CHAPTERS.
533.
1PaulKrugman,1995.
"Increasingreturns,imperfectcompetitionandthepositivetheoryofinternationaltrade,"HandbookofInternationalEconomics,in:G.
M.
Grossman&K.
Rogoff(ed.
),HandbookofInternationalEconomics,edition1,volume3,chapter24,pages1243-1277Elsevier.
.
.
533.
2PaulKrugman,1993.
"RecentThinkingaboutExchangeRateDeterminationandPolicy,"RBAAnnualConferenceVolume,in:AdrianBlundell-Wignall(ed.
),TheExchangeRate,InternationalTradeandtheBalanceofPaymentsReserveBankofAustralia.
533.
3PaulKrugman,1989.
"Industrialorganizationandinternationaltrade,"HandbookofIndustrialOrganization,in:R.
Schmalensee&R.
Willig(ed.
),HandbookofIndustrialOrganization,edition1,volume2,chapter20,pages1179-1223Elsevier.
534BOOKS544.
1MasahisaFujita&PaulKrugman&AnthonyJ.
Venables,2001.
"TheSpatialEconomy:Cities,Regions,andInternationalTrade,"MITPressBooks,TheMITPress,edition1,volume1,number0262561476,03.
544.
2PaulKrugman,1997.
"TheAgeofDiminishedExpectations,3rdEdition:U.
S.
EconomicPolicyinthe1990s,"MITPressBooks,TheMITPress,edition3,volume1,number0262611341,03.
54SelectedReadings–October20088INTRODUCTIONPaulRobinKrugmaniswell-knowninacademiaforhisworkininternationaleconomics,includingtradetheory,economicgeography,andinternationalfinance.
HeisaprofessorofeconomicsandinternationalaffairsatPrincetonUniversity,andacolumnistforTheNewYorkTimes.
In2008,KrugmanwontheNobelMemorialPrizeinEconomicSciences"forhisanalysisoftradepatternsandlocationofeconomicactivity".
PaulRobinKrugmanisbornFebruary281953,grewuponLongIslandinNewYork.
HereceivedhisB.
A.
fromYaleUniversityin1974andhisPh.
D.
fromMITin1977.
Mr.
Krugmanistheauthororeditorof20booksandmorethan200papersinprofessionaljournalsandeditedvolumes.
Hisprofessionalreputationrestslargelyonworkininternationaltradeandfinance;heisoneofthefoundersofthe"newtradetheory,"amajorrethinkingofthetheoryofinternationaltrade.
Mr.
Krugman'scurrentacademicresearchisfocusedoneconomicandcurrencycrises.
Atthesametime,Mr.
Krugmanhaswrittenextensivelyforabroaderpublicaudience.
Someofhisrecentarticlesoneconomicissues,originallypublishedinForeignAffairs,HarvardBusinessReview,ScientificAmericanandotherjournals,arereprintedinPopInternationalismandTheAccidentalTheorist.
Forthepasttwentyyears,Krugmanhaswrittenextensivelyfornoneconomists,includingamonthlycolumn,"TheDismalScience,"fortheonlinemagazineSlate.
HehasalsobeenacolumnistforFortuneandhaspublishedarticlesinTheNewRepublic,ForeignPolicy,Newsweek,andtheNewYorkTimesMagazine,beforejoiningtheNewYorkTimes.
PriortohisappointmentatPrinceton,KrugmanservedonthefacultyofMIT;hislastpostwasFordInternationalProfessorofEconomics.
HealsotaughtatYaleandStanfordSelectedReadings–October20089Universities,andpriortothathewastheseniorinternationaleconomistforthePresident'sCouncilofEconomicAdvisersunderRonaldReagan.
HeisaFellowoftheEconometricSociety,aresearchassociateoftheNationalBureauofEconomicResearch,andamemberoftheGroupofThirty.
HehasservedasaconsultanttotheFederalReserveBankofNewYork,theWorldBank,theInternationalMonetaryFundandtheUnitedNations,aswellastoanumberofcountriesincludingPortugalandthePhilippines.
Inrecognitionofhiswork,in1991theAmericanEconomicAssociationawardedhimitsJohnBatesClarkmedal,aprizegiveneverytwoyearsto"thateconomistunderfortywhoisadjudgedtohavemadeasignificantcontributiontoeconomicknowledge.
"KrugmanhasbeenalsoawardedbytheNobelMemorialPrizeinEconomicSciencesfor2008forhisworkassociatedwithNewTradeTheory.
Thefollowinglistisanon-exhaustive,subjectiveselectionofPaulKrugman'spublications.
Thislistisdividedinfourparts:WorkingPapers,articleschaptersbooksMoreinformationcanbefoundonPaulKrugman'shomepageat:http://krugmanonline.
com/krugman-bio.
htmContactpoint:GianLuigiMazzi,ResponsibleforEuro-indicatorsandstatisticalmethodology,Estat-D1KeyIndicatorsforEuropeanPoliciesgianluigi.
mazzi@ec.
europa.
eu.
SelectedReadings–October2008101WORKINGPAPERS1.
1RichardBaldwin;PaulKrugman,2001.
"Agglomeration,IntegrationandTaxHarmonization,"HEIWorkingPapersHEIWP01-2001,EconomicsSection,TheGraduateInstituteofInternationalStudies.
Thispaperconsiderstaxcompetitionandtaxharmonizationinthepresenceofagglomerationforcesandfallingtradecosts.
Withagglomerativeforcesoperating,industryisnotindifferenttolocationinequilibrium,soperfectlymobilecapitalbecomesaquasi-fixedfactor.
Thissuggeststhatthetaxgameissomethingsubtlerthanaracetothebottom.
Advanced'core'nationsmayactlikelimit-pricingmonopoliststowardlessadvanced'periphery'countries.
Consequently,integrationneednotleadtofallingtaxrates,andmightwellbeconsistentwiththemaintenanceoflargewelfarestates.
"Limittaxing"alsomeansthatthatsimpletaxharmonization-adoptionofacommontaxrate-alwaysharmsatleastonenationandadoptionofaratebetweenthetwounharmonisedratesharmsbothnations.
AtaxfloorsetatthelowestequilibriumtaxrateleadstoaweakParetoimprovement.
Availableat:http://ideas.
repec.
org/p/gii/giihei/heiwp01-2001.
html1.
2PaulKrugman,1996.
"HowtheEconomyOrganizesItselfinSpace:ASurveyoftheNewEconomicGeography,"WorkingPapers96-04-021,SantaFeInstitute.
AstheexampleofSiliconValleymakesclear,theeconomicanalysisoflocation--thegeographyoftheeconomy--isthesubfieldofeconomicstowhichthetypicalbuzzwordsofcomplexityapplymostobviouslyanddramatically.
Thespatialeconomyis,self-evidently,aself-organizingsystemcharacterizedbypathdependence;itisadomaininwhichtheinteractionofindividualdecisionsproducesunexpectedemergentbehavioratSelectedReadings–October200811theaggregatelevel;itsdynamiclandscapesaretypicallyrugged,andtheevolutionofthespatialeconomytypicallyinvolves"punctuatedequilibria,"inwhichgradualchangeinthedrivingvariablesleadstooccasionaldiscontinuouschangeintheresultingbehavior.
Andineconomicgeography,asinmanyphysicalsciences,therearepuzzlingempiricalregularities--likethestartlinglysimplelawthatdescribescitysizes--whichseemtoimplyhigherlevelprinciplesatwork.
Thereisalongintellectualtraditionineconomicgeography(orratherseveralseparatebutconvergenttraditions).
Thelastfewyearshave,however,seenaconsiderableaccelerationofwork,especiallyinthedevelopmentoftheoreticalmodelsoftheemergenceofspatialstructure.
ThispaperisabriefbutIhopesuggestivesurveyofthiswork,intendedtoconveyaflavoroftheexcitingideasbeingdevelopedwithoutgoingintotechnicaldetail.
Thepaperisinfiveparts.
Ibeginwithtwoverysimplemotivatingmodelsthatillustratewhyeconomicgeographysonaturallyleadstothetypical"complexity"themes.
Eachofthenextthreepartsthendescribesaparticularmajorlineofresearch.
Afinalpartdiscussesimplicationsanddirectionsforfuturework.
Availableat:http://www.
santafe.
edu/research/publications/workingpapers/96-04-021.
pdf1.
3PaulKrugman,1996.
"DomesticDistortionsandtheDeindustrializationHypothesis,"NBERWorkingPapers5473,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,IncItiswidelybelievedthatU.
S.
tradedeficitshavedisplacedworkersfromhighlypaidmanufacturingjobsintolesswell-paidserviceemployment,contributingtodecliningincomesforthenationasawhole.
Althoughproponentsofthisviewdonotusuallythinkofitthisway,thisanalysisfallssquarelyintothe`domesticdistortions'frameworkpioneeredbyJagdishBhagwati.
Thispapermodelsthedeindustrializationhypothesisexplicitlyasadomesticdistortionsissue,andshowsthatwhileitmakesconceptualsenseitisoflimitedquantitativeimportance.
Availableat:http://www.
nber.
org/papers/w5473.
pdfSelectedReadings–October2008121.
4PaulKrugman&Venables,AnthonyJ.
,1995.
"TheSeamlessWorld:ASpatialModelofInternationalSpecialization,"CEPRDiscussionPapers1230,C.
E.
P.
R.
DiscussionPapers.
Thispaperisanefforttodointernationaltradetheorywithoutmentioningcountries.
Nearlyallmodelsoftheinternationaleconomyassumethattradetakesplacebetweennationsorregionswhicharethemselvesdimensionlesspoints.
Wedevelopamodelinwhicheconomicspaceisinsteadassumedtobecontinuous,andinwhichthis`seamlessworld'spontaneouslyorganizesitselfintoindustrialandagriculturalzonesbecauseofthetensionbetweenforcesofagglomerationanddisagglomeration.
Onemightexpectsuchamodeltobeanalyticallyintractable,butweareabletogainconsiderableinsightthroughacombinationofsimulationsandananalyticalapproachoriginallysuggestedinabiologicalcontextbyAlanTuring.
Availableat:http://www.
cepr.
org/pubs/dps/DP1230.
asp1.
5PaulKrugman,1995.
"Technology,Trade,andFactorPrices,"NBERWorkingPapers5355,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
Anumberofrecentstudiesappeartoshowthatinternationaltradeisasecondaryfactorinthegrowinginequalityofwages,withtechnologyprobablythemainculprit.
Thesestudieshave,however,beensubjectedtosevereandinsomecasesharshlywordedcriticismbytradetheorists,whoarguethattheauthorsofthesestudieshavemisspecifiedtheimpactsofbothtechnologyandtradeonfactorprices.
Thispapershowsthatitisthecriticswhoareconfused.
Inparticular,muchrecentdiscussionabouttechnology,trade,andwagesismarkedbyafailuretodistinguishbetweenthemodelswealluseandtheparticularthoughtexperimentswetypicallyusetoteachthesemodels--whichhappennottobetheappropriatethoughtexperimentsweneedtoanalyzethereal-worldissues.
Availableat:http://www.
nber.
org/papers/w5355.
pdfSelectedReadings–October2008131.
6PaulKrugman,1994.
"Fluctuations,Instability,andAgglomeration,"NBERWorkingPapers4616,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
Recentmodelsineconomicgeographysuggestthattheremaybeverylargenumbersofequilibriumspatialstructures.
Simulationssuggest,however,thatthestructuresthatemergearesurprisinglyorderly,andoftenseemapproximatelytofollowsimplerulesaboutthespacingofurbansites.
Thispaperoffersanexplanationintermsoftheprocessbywhichaspatialeconomydivergesawayfromanevendistributionofactivityacrossthelandscape.
Itshowsthatasmalldivergenceofactivityawayfromspatialuniformity,evenifitishighlyirregular,canberegardedasthesumofanumberofsimpleperiodicfluctuationsatdifferentspatial'wavelengths';thesefluctuationsgrowatdifferentrates.
Thereisaparticular'preferredwavelength'thatgrowsfastest;providedthattheinitialdistributionofactivityacrossspaceisflatenough,thispreferredwavelengtheventuallydominatesthespatialpatternandbecomesthetypicaldistancebetweencities.
Theapproachsuggeststhatsurprisinglysimpleprinciplesofself-organizationmayliebeneaththesurfaceofmodelsthatappearatfirsttoyieldhopelesslycomplexpossibilities.
Availableat:http://www.
nber.
org/papers/w4616.
pdf1.
7PaulKrugman&Venables,AnthonyJ.
,1994.
"GlobalizationandtheInequalityofNations,"CEPRDiscussionPapers1015,C.
E.
P.
R.
DiscussionPapers.
Thepaperconsidersamodelinwhichanimperfectlycompetitivemanufacturingsectorproducesgoodswhichareusedbothforfinalconsumptionandasintermediates.
Intermediateusagecreatescostanddemandlinkagesbetweenfirmsandatendencyformanufacturingagglomeration.
HowdoesglobalizationaffectthelocationofmanufacturingandthegainsfromtradeAthightransportcostsallcountrieshavesomemanufacturingindustry,butwhentransportcostsfallbelowacriticalvalueacore-peripherypatternformsspontaneously,andnationsthatfindthemselvesintheperipherysufferadeclineinrealincome.
Astransportcostscontinuetofalltherecomesasecondstageofconvergenceinrealincomes,inwhichtheperipheralnationsgainandthecorenationsmaywelllose.
SelectedReadings–October200814Availableat:http://www.
cepr.
org/pubs/dps/DP1015.
asp1.
8EliseS.
Brezis&PaulKrugman,1993.
"Immigration,InvestmentandRealWages,"NBERWorkingPapers4563,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
Whenacountryistherecipientoflarge-scale,politicallymotivatedimmigration--ashasbeenthecaseforIsraelinrecentyears--theinitialimpactistoreducerealwages.
Overthelongerterm,however,theendogenousresponseofinvestment,togetherwithincreasingreturns,maywellactuallyincreaserealearnings.
Ifimmigrationitselfisnotwhollyexogenous,butrespondstorealwages,theremaybemultipleequilibria.
Thatis,optimismorpessimismaboutthesuccessoftheeconomyatabsorbingimmigrantsmayconstituteaself-fulfillingprophecy.
Availableat:http://www.
nber.
org/papers/w4563.
pdf1.
9PaulKrugman,1993.
"InequalityandthePoliticalEconomyofEurosclerosis,"CEPRDiscussionPapers867,C.
E.
P.
R.
DiscussionPapers.
Beforetheearly1970sgenerouswelfarestatesseemedtobeconsistentwithhighemployment.
Sincethen,therehasbeengrowingconcernoverdisincentiveeffectsofsocialinsurance.
ThispapersuggeststhattheproblemmayhaveariseninpartbecauseEuropeannationswereineffecttryingtofightmarkettendenciestowardsincreasedinequality.
IntheUnitedStates,withitsmuchmorelimitedwelfarestate,therehasbeenastrikingriseininequality;astylizedmodelsuggeststhattheresponseofredistributivestatestothesesamemarketforcescouldhaveledtoaconsiderablefallinemployment.
Availableat:http://www.
cepr.
org/pubs/dps/DP867.
aspSelectedReadings–October2008151.
10PaulKrugman&RobertLawrence,1993.
"Trade,Jobs,andWages,"NBERWorkingPapers4478,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
ThereisabroadconsensusamongUSopinionleadersthatoureconomicproblemislargelyoneoffailuresofinternationalcompetition--thattradedeficitshaveerodedourmanufacturingbase,thatinabilitytosellonworldmarketshasbeenamajordragoneconomicgrowth,andthatimportsfromlow-wagecountrieshavecausedawideningofincomeinequality.
Thispapersummarizesrecentevidenceontheseissues,andshowsthatwhiletheremaybeagrainoftruthtoeachcomplaint,ineachcasetheeffectisquantitativelyminor.
Thearithmeticof'competitiveness'justdoesn'twork.
Availableat:http://www.
nber.
org/papers/w4478.
pdf1.
11PaulKrugman,1992.
"ADynamicSpatialModel,"NBERWorkingPapers4219,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,IncAnyinterestingmodelofeconomicgeographymustinvolveatensionbetween"centripetal"forcesthattendtoproduceagglomerationsand"centrifugal"forcesthattendtopullthemapart.
Thispaperexploresonesuchmodel,andshowsthatthemodellinkstogetheranumberofthemesinthegeographyliterature.
Theseinclude:theroleofmarketaccess,asmeasuredbyameasureof"marketpotential",indeterminingmanufacturinglocation;theroleofforwardandbackwardlinkagesinproducingagglomerations;thepotentialfor"catastrophes",i.
e.
,discontinuouschangesinlocationinresponsetosmallchangesinexogenousvariables:andtheideathattheeconomyisa"self-organizingsystem"thatevolvesaself-sustaininglocationalstructure.
Availableat:http://www.
nber.
org/papers/w4219.
pdf1.
12RaulLivasElizondo&PaulKrugman,1992.
"TradePolicyandtheThirdWorldMetropolis,"NBERWorkingPapers4238,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
Manyoftheworld'slargestcitiesarenowindevelopingcountries.
Wedevelopasimpletheoreticalmodel,inspiredbythecaseofMexico,thatexplainstheexistenceofsuchSelectedReadings–October200816giantcitiesasaconsequenceofthestrongforwardandbackwardlinkagesthatarisewhenmanufacturingtriestoserveasmalldomesticmarket.
Themodelimpliesthattheselinkagesaremuchweakerwhentheeconomyisopentointernationaltrade-inotherwords,thegiantThirdWorldmetropolisisanunintendedby-productofimport-substitutionpolicies,andwilltendtoshrinkasdevelopingcountriesliberalize.
Availableat:http://www.
nber.
org/papers/w4238.
pdf1.
13PaulKrugman,1991.
"CitiesinSpace:ThreeSimpleModels,"NBERWorkingPapers3607,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
Urbanagglomerationsariseatleastinpartoutoftheinteractionbetweeneconomiesofscaleinproductionandmarketsizeeffects.
Thispaperdevelopsasimplespatialframeworktodevelopillustrativemodelsofthedeterminantsofurbanlocation,ofthenumberandsizeofcities,andofthedegreeofurbanization.
ACentralthemeistheprobableexistenceofmultipleequilibria,andthedependenceoftherangeofpotentialoutcomesonafewkeyparameters.
Availableat:http://www.
nber.
org/papers/w3607.
pdf1.
14PaulKrugman,1991.
"FirstNature,SecondNature,andMetropolitanLocation,"NBERWorkingPapers3740,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
Thispaperdevelopsmodelsofspatialequilibriuminwhichacentralmetropolisemergestosupplymanufacturedgoodstoanagriculturalhinterland.
Thelocationofthemetropolisisnotfullydeterminedbythelocationofresources:aslongasitisnottoofarfromthegeographicalcenteroftheregion,theconcentrationofeconomicmassatthemetropolismakesittheoptimallocationformanufacturingfirms,andisthusself-justifying.
Theapproachinthispaperthereforehelpsexplaintheroleofhistoricalaccidentandself-fulfillingexpectationsinmetropolitanlocation.
Availableat:http://www.
nber.
org/papers/w3740.
pdfSelectedReadings–October2008171.
15PaulKrugman,1990.
"IncreasingReturnsandEconomicGeography,"NBERWorkingPapers3275,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
Thispaperdevelopsatwo-region,two-sectorgeneralequilibriunmodeloflocation.
Thelocationofagriculturalproductionisfixed,butionopolistcallycompetitivemanufacturingfirmschoosetheirlocationtomaximizeprofits.
Iftransportationcostsarehigh,returnstoscaleweak,andtheshareofspendingonmanufacturedgoodslow,theincentivetoproduceclosetothemarketleadstoanequaldivisionofmanufacturingbetweentheregions.
Withlowertransportcosts,strongerscaleeconomies,orahighermanufacturingshare,circularcausationsetsin:themoremanufacturingislocatedinoneregion,thelargerthatregion'sshareofdemand,andthisprovidesanincentivetolocatestillmoremanufacturingthere.
Thuswhentheparametersoftheeconomylieevenslightlyononesideofacritical"phaseboundary",allmanufacturingproductionendsupconcentratedinonlyoneregion.
Availableat:http://www.
nber.
org/papers/w3275.
pdf1.
16PaulKrugman&JulioRotemberg,1990.
"TargetZoneswithLimitedReserves,"NBERWorkingPapers3418,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
Likeafixedexchangerate,atargetzonesystemmaybesubjecttospeculativeattackswhenthereservesofthecentralbankarelimited.
Thispaperanalyzessuchspeculativeattacksandtheirimplications;itshowsthattherecentlydeveloped"smoothpasting"modeloftargetzonesshouldbeviewedasaspecialcasethatemergesonlywhenreservesaresufficientlylarge.
Thepaperthenusesthetargetzoneframeworktoresolveaseemingparadoxinpredictingspeculativeattacksonagoldstandard,arguingthatsuchastandardmaybestbeviewedastheboundarybetweenone-sidedtargetzones.
Availableat:http://www.
nber.
org/papers/w3418.
pdf1.
17PaulKrugman&Venables,AnthonyJ.
,1990.
"IntegrationandtheCompetitivenessofPeripheralIndustry,"CEPRDiscussionPapers363,C.
E.
P.
R.
DiscussionPapers.
SelectedReadings–October200818Thispaperanalyseseconomicintegrationbetweentwoeconomies;onecentral,withalargelocalmarket,andtheotherperipheral,withasmalllocalmarket.
Eacheconomyhasanimperfectlycompetitivemanufacturingsector.
Tradeliberalizationcreatesastrongincentivefortheimperfectlycompetitiveindustrytoconcentrateinthecentralregion,nearthelargemarket.
Thismaycausethedirectionofnettradetobetheoppositeofthatpredictedbyfactorendowments.
Thiseffectmaybeoffsetbyalowerwageintheperipherythaninthecentre;wefindthatintheearlystagesofintegrationrelativewagesinthecentreandperipherydiverge,withconvergenceoccurringonlyinthelaterstages.
Availableat:http://www.
cepr.
org/pubs/dps/DP363.
asp1.
18PaulR.
Krugman,1988.
"Market-BasedDebt-ReductionSchemes,"NBERWorkingPapers2587,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
Recentlymuchattentionhasbeengiventotheideaofreducingthedebtofdevelopingcountriesthrougha"menuapproach"ofschemesthatattempttoharnessthediscountsondebtinthesecondarymarket.
Thispaper,afterreviewingtherationalefortheorthodoxstrategyofconcertedlendingandthecasefordebtforgiveness,examinesthelogicbehindseveralmarket-baseddebtreductionschemes.
Itshowsthatsuchschemeswillordinarilybenefitbothdebtorandcreditoronlywhenthedebtorisonthewrongsideofthe"debtreliefLaffercurve"--thatis,whereareductioninnominalclaimsactuallyincreasesexpectedpayment.
Thisis,however,alsothecaseinwhichunilateraldebtforgivenessisintheinterestofcreditorsinanycase.
Theimplicationisthatthereisnomagicinmarket-baseddebtreduction,asopposedtomorestraightforwardapproaches.
Availableat:http://www.
nber.
org/papers/w2587.
pdf1.
19PaulKrugman,1989.
"HistoryVs.
Expectations,"NBERWorkingPapers2971,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
Inmodelswithexternaleconomies,thereareoftentwoormorelongrunequilibria.
WhichequilibriumischosenMuchoftheliteraturepresumesthat"history"setsinitialconditionswhichdeterminetheoutcome,butanalternativeviewstressestheroleofSelectedReadings–October200819"expectations",i.
e.
ofself-fulfillingprophecy.
Thispaperusesasimpletrademodelwithbothexternaleconomiesandadjustmentcoststoshowhowtheparametersoftheeconomydeterminetherelativeimportanceofhistoryandexpectationsindeterminingequilibrium.
Availableat:http://www.
nber.
org/papers/w2971.
pdf1.
20PaulKrugman&MartinFeldstein,1989.
"InternationalTradeEffectsofValueAddedTaxation,"NBERWorkingPapers3163,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
TheactualvalueaddedtaxsystemsusedinmanycountriesdiffersignificantlyfromthecompletelygeneralVATthathasbeenthefocusofmosteconomicanalyses.
Inpractice,VATsystemsexemptbroadclassesofconsumergoodsandservices.
ThishasimportantimplicationsfortheeffectoftheVAToninternationaltrade.
Avalueaddedtaxissometimesadvocatedasawayofimprovingacountry'sinternationalcompetitivenessbecauseGATTrulespermitthetaxtobeleviedonimportsandrebatedonexports.
ThisleadstopoliticalsupportfortheVATamongexportersandproducersofimport-competingproducts.
ForageneralVATonallconsumption,thisargumentisincorrectexceptintheveryshortrunbecauseexchangeratesordomesticpricesadjusttooffsettheeffectofthetaxontherelativepricesofdomesticandforeigngoods.
Whenpricesorexchangerateshaveadjusted,ageneralvalueaddedtaxwillhavenoeffectonimportsandexports.
Inpractice,thevalueaddedtaxfrequentlyexemptshousingandmanypersonalservices.
TheVATthusraisesthepriceoftradeablesrelativetonontradeablesandinducesasubstitutionofhousingandservicesfortradeablegoods.
Sincethisimpliesareducedconsumptionofimportedgoods,italsoimpliesadeclineinexports.
ThemostlikelyeffectoftheintroductionofaVATwouldthusbeadeclineofexports.
Availableat:http://www.
nber.
org/papers/w3163.
pdfSelectedReadings–October2008201.
21PaulR.
Krugman,1989.
"Financingvs.
ForgivingaDebtOverhang,"NBERWorkingPapers2486,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
Thispaperexaminesthetradeoffsfacingcreditorsofacountrywhosedebtislargeenoughthatthecountrycannotattractvoluntarynewlending.
Ifthecountryisunabletomeetitsdebtservicerequirementsoutofcurrentincome,thecreditorshavetwochoices.
Theycanfinancethecountry,lendingatanexpectedlossinthehopethatthecountrywilleventuallybeabletorepayitsdebtafterall;ortheycanforgive,reducingthedebtleveltoonethatthecountrycanrepay.
Thepost-1983debtstrategyoftheIMFandtheUShasreliedonfinancing,butmanycurrentcallsfordebtreformcallforforgivenessinstead.
Thepapershowsthatthechoicebetweenfinancingandforgivenessrepresentsatradeoff.
Financinggivesthecreditorsanoptionvalue:ifthecountryturnsouttodorelativelywell,creditorswillnothavewrittendowntheirclaimsunnecessarily.
However,theburdenofdebtdistortsthecountry'sincentives,sincethebenefitsofgoodperformancegolargelytocreditorsratherthanitself.
Thepaperalsoshowsthatthetradeoffitselfcanbeimprovedifbothfinancingandforgivenessaremadecontingentonstatesofnaturethatthecountrycannotaffect,suchasoilprices,worldinterestrates,etc.
Availableat:http://www.
nber.
org/papers/w2486.
pdf1.
22PaulKrugman,1989.
"IsBilateralismBad,"NBERWorkingPapers2972,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
Inthe1980stheprocessoftradeliberalizationthroughmultilateralnegotiationseemstohaverunaground.
Initsplacetherehavebeenanumberofbilateralandregionalmovestowardliberalization.
Somehavebeenconcernedthattheselocaldealsmay,byunderminingthemultilateralprocess,actuallyreduceworldtradeandwelfare.
Thispaperdevelopsasimplemodeloftheeffectsofregionaltradingblocs,andshowsthatconsolidationoftheworldintoasmallernumberofsuchblocsmayindeedreducewelfare,evenwheneachblocactstomaximizethewelfareofitsmembers.
Indeed,forallplausibleparametervaluesworldwelfareisminimizedwhentherearethreetradingblocs.
Morecomplexversionsofthemodeloffersofterresults,butthemainthrustisstilltovalidateconcernovertheeffectsofbilateralandregionaltradedeals.
SelectedReadings–October200821Availableat:http://www.
nber.
org/papers/w2972.
pdf1.
23PaulKrugman,1989.
"DifferencesinIncomeElasticitiesandTrendsinRealExchangeRates,"NBERWorkingPapers2761,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,IncOnemightexpectthatdifferencesinincomeelasticitiesintradeand/ordifferencesingrowthratesamongcountrieswouldgiverisetostrongseculartrendsinrealexchangerates;forexample,fast-growingcountriesmightneedsteadydepreciationtogettheworldtoaccepttheirgrowingexports.
Infact,however,incomeelasticitiesaresystematicallyrelatedtogrowthratesbythe"45-degreerule",underwhichfast-growingcountriesappeartofacehighincomeelasticitiesofdemandfortheirexports,whilehavinglowincomeelasticitiesofimportdemand.
Theneteffectofthisrelationshipbetweenelasticitiesandgrowthratesisthatseculartrendsinrealexchangeratesaremuchsmallerthanonemightotherwisehaveexpected:relativePPPholdsfairlywell.
Thispaperdocumentstheexistenceofa"45-degreerule",andsuggestsanexplanationintermsofincreasingreturnsandproductdifferentiation.
Availableat:http://www.
nber.
org/papers/w2761.
pdf1.
24PaulKrugman,1987.
"AdjustmentintheWorldEconomy,"NBERWorkingPapers2424,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
Thereisawidespreadviewthatworldpaymentsimbalancescanberemediedthroughincreaseddemandinsurpluscountriesandreduceddemandindeficitcountries,withoutanyneedforrealexchangeratechanges.
Infactshiftsindemandandrealexchangerateadjustmentarenecessarycouplets,notsubstitutes.
TheessentialreasonforthiscomplementarityisthatamuchhigherfractionofamarginaldollarofUSthanofforeignspendingfallsonUSoutput.
Asaresult,aredistributionofworldspendingawayfromtheUSleadstoanexcesssupplyofUSgoodsunlessaccompaniedbyadeclineintheirrelativeprice.
Althoughsomeeconomistsbelievethattheintegrationofworldcapitalmarketssomehoweliminatesthisproblem,thisisafallacythatconfusesaccountingidentitieswithbehavior.
Thepaperalsoaddressesanumberofrelatesissues,suchastheSelectedReadings–October200822roleofbudgetdeficitsindeterminingdomesticdemandandtheeffectivenessofnominalexchangerateschangesinproducingrealdepreciation.
Availableat:http://www.
nber.
org/papers/w2424.
pdf1.
25PaulR.
Krugman,1988.
"TargetZonesandExchangeRateDynamics,"NBERWorkingPapers2481,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,IncThispaperdevelopsahighlysimplifiedmodelofexchangeratebehaviorwithinthebandunderatargetzoneregime.
Itshowsthattheexpectationthatauthoritieswilldefendthebandexertsastabilizingeffectonexchangeratebehaviorwithintheband,evenwhentheauthoritiesarenotactivelyintervening.
Theextentofstabilizationcanberelatedinastraightforwardwaytothreefactors:thesensitivityofthecurrentexchangeratetoexpecteddepreciation,thevolatilityoftheprocessdrivingexchangerate"fundamentals",andthecredibilityofthecommitmentbyauthoritiestodefendthetargetzone.
Availableat:http://www.
nber.
org/papers/w2481.
pdf1.
26PaulR.
Krugman,1988.
"Deindustrialization,Reindustrialization,andtheRealExchangeRate,"NBERWorkingPapers2586,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
Thispapermodelsaneconomyinwhichitiscostlytomoveresourcesbetweenthetradeableandnontradeablesectors.
Theeconomyissubjecttocapitalflowsthatareunpredictableandareperceivedashavingonlylimitedpersistence.
Themodelshowsthatboththefactthatcapitalflowsareperceivedastemporaryanduncertaintyperseacttolimittheresponsivesnessofresourcereallocationtorealexchangeratemovements.
Inturn,thisreluctanceoffactorstomovewidenstherangeofrealexchangeratevariation,sothatlargermovementsoftherealexchangerateareneededtoaccommodatetransitory,unpredictablecapitalflowsthanwouldberequiredtoaccommodatepersistent,predictableflowsofthesamemagnitude.
ThemodelalsoshowsthatlargecapitalinflowsthatleadtorealexchangerateappreciationlargeenoughtoinduceresourcereallocationSelectedReadings–October200823willtypicallybefollowedbyadepreciationoftherealexchangeratetobelowitsoriginallevel.
Availableat:http://www.
nber.
org/papers/w2586.
pdf1.
27PaulKrugman,1987.
"TriggerStrategiesandPriceDynamicsinEquityandForeignExchangeMarkets,"NBERWorkingPapers2459,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
Triggerstrategist-smaybedefinedasact-orsinassetmarketswhobuyorsellwhenthepricereachesapredeterminedlevel;t-heyincludeparticipantsinportfolioinsuranceschemesinequitymarketsandcentralbankswhointervenetodefendanexchangeratetargetzone.
Thispaperpresentsanapproachtomodelingtheeffectsoftriggerstrategists,withemphasisonhowtargetzonesaffectmarketexpectations.
Itisshownthatacommitmenttodefendatargetzonewillgeneratestabilizingexpectationswithintheband,whichmaygeneratea"targetzonehoneymoon",anextendedperiodinwhichtheannouncementofatargetzonestabilizesexchangerateswithoutanyneedforactiononthepartofauthorities.
However,animperfectlycredibletargetzoneisvulnerabletocrisesinwhichthemarketteststheauthorities'resolve.
Availableat:http://www.
nber.
org/papers/w2459.
pdf1.
28PaulKrugman,1986.
"PricingtoMarketwhentheExchangeRateChanges,"NBERWorkingPapers1926,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
IthasbeenwidelyremarkedthatUSimportpriceshavenotfullyreflectedmovementsintheexchangerate.
Thispaperbeginswithaninvestigationoftheactualextentof"pricingtomarket"byforeignsuppliers.
Itshowsthatpricingtomarketisarealphenomenon,butnotuniversal;inparticular,evidenceonGermanexportpricessuggeststhatstickinessofimportpricesislargelyconfinedtomachineryandtransportequipment.
Thepaperthenconsidersanumberofpossiblemodels.
Whiletheevidenceisnotsufficienttodistinguishamongthesemodels,itseemsprobablethatafullexplanationwillinvolvebothdynamicsandimperfectcompetition.
SelectedReadings–October200824Availableat:http://www.
nber.
org/papers/w1926.
pdf1.
29PaulKrugman,1986.
"IndustrialOrganizationandInternationalTrade,"NBERWorkingPapers1957,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
Thispaperreviewsrecentworkontherelationshipbetweenindustrialorganizationandinternationaltrade.
Fivestrandsinthetheoreticalliteraturearediscussed.
Firstistheroleofeconomiesofscaleasacauseofintra-industrytrade,modelledusingmonopolisticcompetition.
Secondistheeffectoftariffsandquotasondomesticmarketpower.
Thirdistheanalysisofdumpingasinternationalpricediscrimination.
Fourthisthepotentialstrategyroleofgovernmentpolicyasanaidtodomesticfirmsinoligopolisticcompetition.
Finally,thepaperdiscussesrecentworkthatmayprovideanewargumentforprotectionism.
Aconcludingsectiondiscussesrecenteffortsatquantificationofnewtradetheory.
Availableat:http://www.
nber.
org/papers/w1957.
pdf1.
30RichardE.
Baldwin&PaulKrugman,1986.
"MarketAccessandInternationalCompetition:ASimulationStudyof16KRandomAccessMemories,"NBERWorkingPapers1936,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,IncThispaperdevelopsamodelofinternationalcompetitioninanoligopolycharacterizedbystronglearningeffects.
ThemodelisquantifiedbycalibratingitsparameterstoreproducetheUS-Japaneserivalryin16KRAMs(RandomAccessMemory)from1978-1983.
Wethenaskthefollowingquestion:howmuchdidtheapparentclosureoftheJapanesemarkettoimportsaffectJapan'sexportperformanceAsimulationanalysissuggeststhataprotectedhomemarketwasacrucialadvantagetoJapanesefirms,whichwouldotherwisehavebeenuncompetitivebothathomeandabroad.
Wefind,however,thatJapan'shomemarketprotectionnonethelessproducedmorecoststhanbenefitsforJapan.
Availableat:http://www.
nber.
org/papers/w1936.
pdfSelectedReadings–October2008251.
31PaulKrugman,1986.
"IstheJapanProblemOver,"NBERWorkingPapers1962,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
ThispaperarguesthatJapan'sexportgrowthislikelytoslowsharplyoverthenextfewyears,perhapstozero.
ForthepastdozenyearsJapan'sexportvolumehasgownmuchmorerapidlythanherdomesticproduction.
Thisdivergencewasmadenecessaryprimarilybyrisingoilprices,andsecondarilybyashiftintocurrentaccountsurplus.
Nowboththesefactorsarerunninginreverse.
IfJapan'sexportgrowthdoesslowsharply,themechanismwillbeaverystrongyen--probablyabove140.
ThepaperarguesthatitisJapan'sexportgrowthratherthanstatictradestructurethatisthemaincauseoftradetension,sothesedevelopmentsshouldleadtoaconsiderablereductionintradefriction.
Availableat:http://www.
nber.
org/papers/w1962.
pdf1.
32PaulKrugman,1985.
"IstheStrongDollarSustainable,"NBERWorkingPapers1644,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,IncThispaperpresentsevidencestronglysuggestingthatthecurrentstrengthofthedollarreflectsmyopicbehaviorbyinternationalinvestors;thatis,thatpartofthedollar'sstrengthcanbeviewedasaspeculativebubble.
Atsomepointthisbubblewillburst,leadingtoasharpfallinthedollar'svalue.
TheessentialargumentisthatgiventhemodestrealinterestdifferentialsbetweentheU.
S.
anditstradingpartners,thedollar'sstrengthamountstoanimplicitforecastonthepartofthemarketthatwithhighprobabilitythedollarwillremainverystrongforanextendedperiod.
ThepapershowsthatsuchsustaineddollarstrengthwouldleadtheU.
S.
toLatinAmericanlevelsofdebtrelativetoGNP,whichispresumablynotfeasible.
Allowingforthepossibilitythatsomethingwillbedonetobringthedollardownbeforethishappensactuallyreinforcestheargumentthatthecurrentvalueofthedollarisunreasonable.
Availableat:http://www.
nber.
org/papers/w1644.
pdfSelectedReadings–October2008261.
33RichardBaldwin&PaulKrugman,1986.
"PersistentTradeEffectsofLargeExchangeRateShocks,"NBERWorkingPapers2017,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
Thispaperpresentsatheoreticalbasisfortheargumentthatlargeexchangerateshocks-suchastheriseofthedollarfrom1980to1985-mayshifthistoricalrelationshipsbetweenexchangeratesandtradeflows.
Webeginwithpartialmodelsinwhichlargeexchangeratefluctuationsleadtoentryorexitdecisionsthatarenotreversedwhenthecurrencyreturnstoitspreviouslevel.
Whenwedevelopasimplemodelofthefeedbackfrom"hysteresis"intradetotheexchangerateitself.
Hereweseethatalargecapitalinflow,whichleadstoaninitialappreciation,canresultinapersistentreductionintheexchangerateconsistentwithtradebalance.
Availableat:http://www.
nber.
org/papers/w2017.
pdf1.
34PaulKrugman,1985.
"IncreasingReturnsandtheTheoryofInternationalTrade,"NBERWorkingPapers1752,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
Increasingreturnsareasfundamentalacauseofinternationaltradeascomparativeadvantage,buttheirrolehasuntilrecentlybeenneglectedbecauseoftheproblemofmodellingmarketstructure.
Recentlysubstantialtheoreticalprogresshasbeenmadeusingthreedifferentapproaches.
ThesearetheMarshallianapproach,whereeconomiesofscaleareassumedexternaltofirms;theChamberlinianapproach,whereimperfectcompetitiontakestherelativelytractableformofmonopolisticcompetition;andtheCournotapproachofnoncooperativequantity-settingfirms.
Thispapersurveysthebasicconceptsandresultsofeachapproach.
Itshowsthatsomebasicinsightsarenottoosensitivetotheparticularmodelofmarketstructure.
Althoughmuchremainstobedone,wehavemademoreprogresstowardageneralanalysisofincreasingreturnsandtradethananyonewouldhavethoughtpossibleevenafewyearsago.
Availableat:http://www.
nber.
org/papers/w1752.
pdfSelectedReadings–October2008271.
35PaulKrugman,1983.
"OilandtheDollar,"NBERWorkingPapers0554,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,IncThispaperdevelopsasimpletheoreticalmodeloftheeffectofanoilpriceincreaseonexchangerates.
ThemodelshowsthatthedirectionofthiseffectdependsonacomparisonofthedirectbalanceofpaymentsburdenofthehigheroilpricewiththeindirectbalanceofpaymentsbenefitsofOPECspendingandinvestment.
Intheshortrun,whatmattersiswhethertheU.
S.
shareofworldoilimportsismoreorlessthanitsshareofOPECassetholdings;inthelongrun,whetheritsshareofoilimportsismoreorlessthanitsshareofOPECimports.
Casualempiricismsuggeststhattheinitialeffectandthelongruneffectwillruninoppositedirections:anoilpriceincreasewillinitiallyleadtodollarappreciation,buteventuallyleadstodollardepreciation.
Availableat:http://www.
nber.
org/papers/w0554.
pdf1.
36PaulKrugman&TorstenPersson&LarsE.
O.
Svensson,1982.
"Inflation,MonetaryVelocity,andWelfare,"NBERWorkingPapers0987,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,IncThispaperdevelopsasimplegeneralequilibriummodelofamonetaryeconomywithacapitalmarket,inwhichmonetarydemandarisesfroma"cash-in-advance"constraintratherthanfromanydirectroleintheutilityfunction.
Uncertaintygivesrisetoameaningfulportfoliochoicebetweenmoneyandbonds.
Weshowthatmonetaryvelocityisincreasingintherateofinflation,andthattheoptimalmonetarypolicyisthatwhichmaximizesrealbalances.
Wealsoshowthattherealrateofinterestisnotinvarianttomonetarypolicy:inflationlowerstherealrate.
Availableat:http://www.
nber.
org/papers/w0987.
pdf1.
37PaulKrugman,1979.
"InternationalTradeandIncomeDistribution:AReconsideration,"NBERWorkingPapers0356,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
SelectedReadings–October200828Thepostwarexpansionoftradeamongtheindustrialcountrieshasnothadthestrongdistributionaleffectswhichstandardmodelsoftradewouldhaveledustoexpect.
Thispaperdevelopsamodelwhichattemptstoexplainthisobservation,whileatthesametimemakingsenseofsomeotherpuzzlingempiricalaspectsofworldtrade.
Thebasisofthemodelisadistinctionbetweentwokindsoftrade:"Heckscher-Ohlin"trade,basedondifferencesinfactorproportions,and"intraindustry"trade,basedonscaleeconomiesandproductdifferentiation.
Toincorporateintraindustrytradeintothemodelitisnecessarytodroptheusualassumptionsofconstantreturnstoscaleandperfectcompetition;insteadthepaperdealswithaworldwhereeconomiesofscalearepervasiveandallfirmspossesssomemonopolypower.
Surprisingly,itisnonethelesspossibletodevelopafully-worked-outgeneralequilibriummodelwhichremainssimpleandcanbeusedtocompareautarkyandfreetrade.
Twomainresultsemergefromtheanalysis.
First,thenatureoftradedependsonhowsimilarcountriesareintheirfactorendowments.
Ascountriesbecomemoresimilar,thetradebetweenthemwillincreasinglybecomeintra-industryincharacter.
Second,theeffectsofopeningtradedependonitstype.
Ifintraindustrytradeissufficientlydominanttheadvantagesofextendingthemarketwilloutweighthedistributionaleffects,andtheownersofscarceaswellasofabundantfactorswillbemadebetteroff.
Availableat:http://www.
nber.
org/papers/w0356.
pdf1.
38PaulKrugman,1981.
"RealExchangeRateAdjustmentandtheWelfareEffectsofOilPriceDecontrol,"NBERWorkingPapers0658,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
ConventionalanalysisofthewelfareeffectsofU.
S.
oilpriceregulationinthe1970'sfocusesonthedeadweightlossesintheoilmarket.
Thispaperarguesthatsuchanalysissubstantiallyunderstatesthebenefitsfromdecontrollingprices,becausedecontrolwillleadtoanimprovementintheU.
S.
termsoftradewithrespecttootheroilimportingcountries.
Asimplemodeloftherelationshipbetweenoildecontrolandthetermsoftradeisdeveloped,andtheimpactiscalculatedforplausibleparametervalues.
TheresultsSelectedReadings–October200829suggestthatthetermsoftradebenefitsareseveraltimeslargerthanthebenefitsasconventionallymeasured.
Availableat:http://www.
nber.
org/papers/w0658.
pdf1.
39PaulKrugman,1981.
"ConsumptionPreferences,AssetDemands,andDistributionEffectsinInternationalFinancialMarkets,"NBERWorkingPapers0651,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.
Thispaperisanattempttoexaminesomeofthemicroeconomicfoundationsofthislastviewofthelinkbetweencurrentaccountsandexchangerata.
Severalauthors,especiallyKourianddeMacedo(1978),butalsomorerecentlyDornbusch(1980),havesoughttojustifytheportfolioapproachintermsoffinancetheory,derivingassetdemandsfromamean-varianceframeworkandarguingthatdifferencesintheportfoliosofdifferentcountriesexplainwhychangesintheworlddistributionofwealthaffectexchangerates.
WhatIwilldointhispaperistoarguethat,evenunderseeminglyfavorableassumptions,thesedistributioneffectsnayrunthewrongway;thatiftheyruntherightway,theywillbeveryweak;andthattheincentivesforinter-national,portfoliodiversificationareinanycasesmall,andcanbeswampedbyquitemodesttransactioncostsorothercoststodiversification.
Availableat:http://www.
nber.
org/papers/w0651.
pdf1.
40PaulKrugman,1979.
"VehicleCurrenciesandtheStructureofInternationalExchange,"NBERWorkingPapers0333,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,IncThispaperisconcernedwiththereasonswhysomecurrencies,suchasthepoundsterlingandtheU.
S.
dollar,havecometoserveas"vehicles"forexchangesofothercurrencies.
Itdevelopsathreecountrymodelofpaymentsequilibriumwithtransactioncosts,andshowshowonecurrencycanemergeasaninternationalmediumofexchange.
Transactioncostsarethenmadeendogenous,anditisshownhowtheunderlyingstructureofpaymentslimits,withoutnecessarilycompletelydetermining,thechoiceandSelectedReadings–October200830SelectedReadings–October200831roleofavehiclecurrency.
Finally,adynamicmodelisdeveloped,andthewayinwhichonecurrencycandisplaceanotherastheinternationalmediumofexchangeisexplored.
Availableat:http://www.
nber.
org/papers/w0333.
pdf.
2ARTICLES2.
1PaulKrugman,2008.
"ResponsetoNelsonandSchwartz,"JournalofMonetaryEconomics,Elsevier,vol.
55(4),pages857-860,May.
TheimpactofMiltonFriedmanonmodernmonetaryeconomics:settingtherecordstraightonPaulKrugman's"WhowasMiltonFriedman"andthecritiqueofNelsonandSchwartz,Krugmanfocusesonthreecentraleconomictopics:(i)whetheritisreasonabletoclaimthattheFederalReservecausedtheGreatDepression;(ii)whethermonetarypolicyhadthepowertoengineeraneconomicrecoveryaftertheonsetofthedepression;and(iii)whethermonetarismsucceededorfailed.
Onallthesekeypoints,herejectsthecriticismsofNelsonandSchwartz.
Availableat:http://www.
sciencedirect.
com/science/article/B6VBW-4SK631F-1/1/e01921fbf80528ea4e304176685e555c2.
2PaulKrugman,2007.
"Willtherebeadollarcrisis,"EconomicPolicy,CEPR,CES,MSH,vol.
22,pages435-467,07.
"AlmosteveryonebelievesthattheUScurrentaccountdeficitmusteventuallyend,andthatthisendwillinvolvedollardepreciation.
However,manybelievethatthisdepreciationwilltakeplacegradually.
ThispapershowsthatanyprocessofgradualdollardeclinefastenoughtopreventtheaccumulationofimplausiblelevelsofUSexternaldebtwouldimposecapitallossesoninvestorsmuchlargerthantheycurrentlyexpect.
Asaresult,therewillatsomepointhavetobea'WileE.
Coyotemoment'-apointatwhichexpectationsarerevised,andthedollardropssharply.
Itismuchlessclear,however,whetherthis'crisis'willproducemacroeconomicproblems.
"Availableat:http://www.
blackwell-synergy.
com/doi/abs/10.
1111/j.
1468-0327.
2007.
00183.
xSelectedReadings–October2008322.
3DeanBaker&J.
BradfordDelong&PaulKrugman,2005.
"AssetReturnsandEconomicGrowth,"BrookingsPapersonEconomicActivity,EconomicStudiesProgram,TheBrookingsInstitution,vol.
36(2005-1),pages289-330.
Americaisprobablyfacingaslowdownintherateofnaturalpopulationincreaseandpossiblyaslowdowninproductivitygrowth.
Wearguethat,ifthesetwofactorsdepresstherateoffutureeconomicgrowth,onecannotassumethatthepastperformanceofassetreturnsisindicativeoffutureresults.
Simplestandardclosed-economygrowthmodelspredictthatagrowthslowdownwilllikelylowerthemarginalproductofcapitalandthusthelong-runrateofreturn.
Moreover,ifcurrentassetvaluationsrepresentrationalexpectations,simplearithmeticshowsthatitisalmostimpossibleforpastratesofreturntocontinuethroughagrowthslowdown.
Instandardmodelsatleast,onlyalargeshiftintheincomedistributiontowardcapital,orfuturecurrentaccountsurplusesthatarelargerandmorepersistentthanthosethatnineteenth-centuryBritainsustainedforgenerations,givepromiseforreconcilingafutureslowdownwithacontinuationofhistoricalassetreturns.
Availableat:http://www.
brookings.
edu/press/Journals/2005/brookingspapersoneconomicactivity12005.
aspx2.
4PaulKrugman,2004.
"ConfusionsaboutSocialSecurity,"TheEconomists'Voice,BerkeleyElectronicPress,vol.
2(1),pages1ThereisalotofconfusioninthedebateoverSocialSecurityprivatization,muchofitdeliberate.
Thisessaydiscussesthemeaningofthetrustfund,whichprivatizersdeclareeitherrealorfictionalattheirconvenience;thelikelyrateofreturnonprivateaccounts,whichhasbeengreatlyoverstated;andthe(ir)relevanceofputativereductionsinfarfutureliabilities.
Availableat:http://www.
bepress.
com/cgi/viewcontent.
cgiarticle=1048&context=ev2.
5MasahisaFujita&PaulKrugman,2004.
"Theneweconomicgeography:Past,presentandthefuture,"EconomicsofGovernance,Springer,vol.
83(1),pages139-164,October.
SelectedReadings–October200833Thisarticlepresentsasummaryofourconversationonthepast,presentandfutureoftheneweconomicgeography,whichtookplacewiththehelpofaninterlocutorinSanJuan,PuertoRicoinNovember2002.
Followingtheintroduction,weexplainwhattheneweconomicgeographyis,andwedescribesomebasicmodels.
Thediscussionofitsvariouscriticalaspectsispresentedsubsequently,andthearticleconcludeswiththediscussionoffutureissuesandchallengesfacingthefield.
Availableat:http://hdl.
handle.
net/10.
1007/s10110-003-0180-02.
6PaulKrugman,2002.
"EcharemosdemenosaTobin,"RevistadeEconomíaInstitucional,UniversidadExternadodeColombia-FacultaddeEconomía,vol.
4(6),pages197-199,January-J.
Noabstractavailable.
Availableat:http://www.
uexternado.
edu.
co/facecono/ecoinstitucional/workingpapers/pkrugman6.
pdf2.
7PaulKrugman,2000.
"ThinkingabouttheLiquidityTrap,"JournaloftheJapaneseandInternationalEconomies,Elsevier,vol.
14(4),pages221-237,December.
Thepurposeofthispaperistwofold.
First,itisarestatementofwhatIbelievetobetheessentiallogicofliquidity-trapeconomics,withanemphasisinparticularonhowthe"modern"macroIinitiallyusedtoapproachtheproblemlinksupwithmoretraditional(andstillveryuseful)IS-LM-typethinking.
Second,itattemptstoexamineinamoreorlesscoherentwaythevariousalternativepoliciesthateitherareinplaceorhavebeenproposedtodealwithJapan'sliquiditytrap,rangingfromfiscalstimulustounconventionalopen-marketoperations(andittriesinparticulartomakeclearthedifferencebetweenthelatterandtheexpectations-focusedinflationtargetingIhaveproposed).
Availableat:http://www.
sciencedirect.
com/science/article/B6WMC-45F4YB2-2/2/ee9573d9e367232059e75e116df3beddSelectedReadings–October2008342.
8PaulKrugman,2000.
"CanAmericaStayonTop,"JournalofEconomicPerspectives,AmericanEconomicAssociation,vol.
14(1),pages169-175,Winter.
Noabstractavailable.
Availableat:http://www.
humboldt.
edu/~ee3/econ323/topics/krugman.
pdf2.
9PaulKrugman,2000.
"Crises:thepriceofglobalization,"Proceedings,FederalReserveBankofKansasCity,pages75-106.
Noabstractavailable.
Availableat:http://www.
kc.
frb.
org/PUBLICAT/SYMPOS/2000/S00krug.
pdf2.
10PaulKrugman,2000.
"HowComplicatedDoestheModelHavetoBe,"OxfordReviewofEconomicPolicy,OxfordUniversityPress,vol.
16(4),pages33-42,Winter.
SimplemacroeconomicmodelsbasedonIS-LMhavebecomeunfashionablebecauseoftheirlackofmicro-foundations,andareindangerofbeingeffectivelyforgottenbytheprofession.
Yetwhilethinkingaboutmicro-foundationsisaproductiveenterprise,complexmodelsbasedonsuchfoundationsarenotnecessarilymoreaccuratethansimple,ad-hocmodels.
ThreedecadesofattemptstobaseaggregatesupplyonrationalbehaviourhavenotdisplacedthePhillipscurve;inter-temporalmodelsofconsumptiondonotofferreliablepredictionsaboutaggregatedemand.
Meanwhile,theeaseofuseofsmallmodelsmakesthemsuperiorformanypracticalapplications.
Soweshouldnotallowthemtobedrivenoutofcirculation.
Availableat:http://www.
ingentaconnect.
com/content/oup/ecopol/2000/00000016/00000004/art000332.
11PaulKrugman,2000.
"Technology,tradeandfactorprices,"JournalofInternationalEconomics,Elsevier,vol.
50(1),pages51-71,February.
Theviewthatrecentchangesinthedistributionofincomeprimarilyreflecttechnologyratherthantrademaybethemajorityopinion,buthasbeenharshlycriticizedbysometradeeconomists.
Thispaperwillarguethatthecritiqueinfactmissesthepoint,essentiallybecausethecriticsundertakethewrongthoughtSelectedReadings–October200835experiments.
Tradevolumesarenotirrelevant:ifoneposesthequestioncorrectly,oneimmediatelyrealizesthatsmalltradevolumesareinconsistentwithastorythatattributeslargedistributionaleffectstotrade.
Thefactorbiasoftechnologicalchangeisnotimmaterial,exceptinthecasewheresuchchangetakesplaceinasmallopeneconomy(asopposedtoonethatcanaffectworldprices),andwheretechnicalchangeoccursonlyinthateconomy(ratherthanoccurringsimultaneouslyinothereconomiesaswell);sincetherealsituationdoesnotmeeteithercriterion,factorbiasdefinitelydoesmatter.
Mostsurprisingly,themuchmaligneduseofafactorcontentapproachtoinfertheeffectsoftradeonfactorpricesturnsouttobeanentirelyjustifiedprocedurewhencarefullyapplied.
Availableat:http://www.
sciencedirect.
com/science/article/B6V6D-3Y6Y4R3-3/2/7f791f8bd9baf7599e72ee790b1ed6b62.
12Fujita,Masahisa&PaulKrugman&Mori,Tomoya,1999.
"Ontheevolutionofhierarchicalurbansystems,"EuropeanEconomicReview,Elsevier,vol.
43(2),pages209-251,FebruaryTherapidurbanizationtrendoftheworldeconomyimpliesanincreasingimportanceofcitiesasbasicunitsofnationalandinternationaltrade.
Giventhatthecitieswithinaneconomyconstitutesomeformofhierarchicalstructure,wemodeltheendogenousformationofahierarchicalurbansystem.
Toovercomethemultiplicityofequilibria,weproposeanevolutionaryapproachwhichcombinesageneralequilibriummodelwithanadjustmentdynamics.
Itisdemonstratedthatastheeconomy'spopulationsizeincreasesgradually,theurbansystemself-organizesintoahighlyregularhierarchicalsystemalaChristaller.
Availableat:http://www.
sciencedirect.
com/science/article/B6V64-3VF9GKY-1/2/bad51c2d8874bf54aa651f2a6371193a2.
13PaulKrugman,1999.
"BalanceSheets,theTransferProblem,andFinancialCrises,"InternationalTaxandPublicFinance,Springer,vol.
6(4),pages459-472,November.
Inaworldofhighcapitalmobility,thethreatofspeculativeattackbecomesacentralissueofmacroeconomicpolicy.
While"first-generation"and"second-generation"SelectedReadings–October200836modelsofspeculativeattacksbothhaveconsiderablerelevancetoparticularfinancialcrisesofthe1990s,a"third-generation"modelisneededtomakesenseofthenumberandnatureoftheemergingmarketcrisesof1997-98.
Mostoftherecentattemptstoproducesuchamodelhavearguedthatthecoreoftheproblemliesinthebankingsystem.
Thispapersketchesanothercandidateforthird-generationcrisismodeling—onethatemphasizestwofactsthathavebeenomittedfromformalmodelstodate:theroleofcompanies'balancesheetsindeterminingtheirabilitytoinvest,andthatofcapitalflowsinaffectingtherealexchangerate.
Availableat:http://hdl.
handle.
net/10.
1023/A:10087411130742.
14PaulKrugman,1998.
"It'sBaaack:Japan'sSlumpandtheReturnoftheLiquidityTrap,"BrookingsPapersonEconomicActivity,EconomicStudiesProgram,TheBrookingsInstitution,vol.
29(1998-2),pages137-206.
Intheearlyyearsofmacroeconomicsasadiscipline,theliquiditytrap-thatawkwardconditioninwhichmonetarypolicylosesitsgripbecausethenominalinterestrateisessentiallyzero,inwhichthequantityofmoneybecomesirrelevantbecausemoneyandbondsareessentiallyperfectsubstitutes-playedacentralrole.
Hicks(1937),inintroducingboththeIS-LMmodelandtheliquiditytrap,identifiedtheassumptionthatmonetarypolicywasineffective,ratherthantheassumeddownwardinflexibilityofprices,asthecentraldifferencebetween"Mr.
Keynesandtheclassics".
IthasoftenbeenpointedoutthattheAlice-in-WonderlandcharacterofearlyKeynesianism,withitsparadoxesofthrift,widow'scruses,andsoon,dependedontheexplicitorimplicitassumptionofanaccommodativemonetarypolicy;ithaslessoftenbeenpointedoutthatinthelate1930sandearly1940sitseemedquitenaturaltoassumethatmoneywasirrelevantatthemargin.
Afterall,attheendofthe30sinterestrateswerehardupagainstthezeroconstraint:theaveragerateonTreasurybillsduring1940was0.
014percent.
Sincethen,however,theliquiditytraphassteadilyrecededbothasamemoryandasasubjectofeconomicresearch.
PartlythisisbecauseinthegenerallyinflationarydecadesafterWorldWarIInominalinterestratesstayedcomfortablyabovezero,andcentralbanksthereforenolongerfoundthemselves"pushingonastring".
Availableat:http://www.
brookings.
edu/press/Journals/1998/bpea198.
aspxSelectedReadings–October2008372.
15PaulKrugman,1998.
"Space:TheFinalFrontier,"JournalofEconomicPerspectives,AmericanEconomicAssociation,vol.
12(2),pages161-74.
Noabstractavailable.
Availableat:http://www.
jstor.
org/pss/26469682.
16PaulKrugman,1998.
"TwoCheersforFormalism,"EconomicJournal,RoyalEconomicSociety,vol.
108(451),pages1829-36,November.
Noabstractavailable.
Availableat:http://www.
blackwell-synergy.
com/servlet/useragentfunc=synergy&synergyAction=showTOC&journalCode=ecoj&volume=108&issue=451&year==null2.
17PaulKrugman,1998.
"What'sNewabouttheNewEconomicGeography,"OxfordReviewofEconomicPolicy,OxfordUniversityPress,vol.
14(2),pages7-17.
Since1990anewgenreofresearch,oftendescribedasthe'neweconomicgeography,'hasemerged.
Itdiffersfromtraditionalworkineconomicgeographymainlyinadoptingamodellingstrategythatexploitsthesametechnicaltricksthathaveplayedsuchalargeroleinthe'newtrade'and'newgrowth'theories;thesemodellingtricks,whiletheyprecludeanyclaimsofgenerality,doallowtheconstructionofmodelsthat--unlikemosttraditionalspatialanalysis--arefullygeneral-equilibriumandclearlyderiveaggregatebehaviourfromindividualmaximization.
Thenewworkishighlysuggestive,particularlyinindicatinghowhistoricalaccidentcanshapeeconomicgeography,andhowgradualchangesinunderlyingparameterscanproducediscontinuouschangeinspatialstructure.
Italsoservestheimportantpurposeofplacinggeographicalanalysissquarelyintheeconomicmainstream.
Availableat:http://www.
ingentaconnect.
com/content/oup/ecopol/1998/00000014/00000002/art000072.
18Brezis,EliseS&PaulKrugman,1997.
"TechnologyandtheLifeCycleofCities,"JournalofEconomicGrowth,Springer,vol.
2(4),pages369-83,December.
SelectedReadings–October200838Duringtimesofmajortechnologicalchange,leadingcitiesareoftenovertakenbyupstartmetropolitanareas.
Suchupheavalsmaybeexplainediftheadvantageofestablishedurbancentersrestsonlocalizedlearningbydoing.
Whenanewtechnologyisintroduced,forwhichthisaccumulatedexperienceisirrelevant,oldercentersprefertostaywithatechnologyinwhichtheyaremoreefficient.
Newcenters,however,turntothenewtechnologyandarecompetitivedespitetherawstateofthattechnologybecauseoftheirlowerlandrentsandwages.
Overtime,asthenewtechnologymatures,theestablishedcitiesareovertaken.
Availableat:http://journals.
kluweronline.
com/issn/1381-4338/contents2.
19PaulKrugman,1997.
"WhyShouldTradeNegotiatorsNegotiateAbout,"JournalofEconomicLiterature,AmericanEconomicAssociation,vol.
35(1),pages113-120,March.
Inrecentyearstherehavebeengrowingdemandstomaketradeliberalizationcontingentonadoptionofcommonlaborandenvironmentalstandards.
Thestraightforwardeconomicansweristhatthismakeslittlesense:neitherthegainsfromtradenorthegainsfromappropriateregulationarecompromisedifothercountriesimposestandardsthatareweakerthanyourown.
Itispossibletooffersecond-beteconomicrationalesforharmonization,buttheseareempiricallyunconvincing.
Theonlyseriousargumentinfavororregulationispolitical:thatregulationwhichisinthenationalinterestmaynotbepoliticallyfeasibleunlessothercountriesdothesame.
Availableat:http://www.
e-jel.
org/archive/mar1997/Krugman.
pdf2.
20PaulKrugman&Elizondo,RaulLivas,1996.
"TradepolicyandtheThirdWorldmetropolis,"JournalofDevelopmentEconomics,Elsevier,vol.
49(1),pages137-150,April.
Manyoftheworld'slargestcitiesarenowindevelopingcountries.
Wedevelopasimpletheoreticalmodel,inspiredbythecaseofMexico,thatexplainstheexistenceofsuchgiantcitiesasaconsequenceofthestrongforwardandbackwardlinkagesthatarisewhenmanufacturingtriestoserveasmalldomesticmarket.
Themodelimpliesthattheselinkagesaremuchweakerwhentheeconomyisopentointernationaltrade--inotherwords,thegiantThirdWorldmetropolisisanunintendedby-productofimport-substitutionpolicies,andwilltendtoshrinkasdevelopingcountriesliberalize.
SelectedReadings–October200839Availableat:http://www.
sciencedirect.
com/science/article/B6VBV-3VW1T1S-K/2/d16c3a65986b083ed83a772404b6565c2.
21PaulKrugman,1996.
"MakingSenseoftheCompetitivenessDebate,"OxfordReviewofEconomicPolicy,OxfordUniversityPress,vol.
12(3),pages17-25,Autumn.
Thedebateovernationalcompetitivenessismarkedbysomebasicmisperceptions.
Withfewexceptions,thosewhousethetermhaveacrude,essentiallymercantilistviewofworldtrade,inwhichcompetitionamongnationsisjustlikecompetitionbetweencorporations.
Notonlydotheauthorsandreadersofreportsonnationalcompetitivenessusuallynotunderstandcomparativeadvantage,theyareunawareofthemostbasicadding-upconstraints.
Economists,however,findithardtobelievethatseeminglywell-informedpeoplecanreallybethisnaive,andassumethattheremustbemoresophisticatedideaslyingbehindwhattheysay.
Therationalesofferedbyeconomists,inturn,offerfalsecomforttothewould-besophisticateswholiketheterm"competitiveness";theybelievethattheyhavetranscendedconventionaleconomictheory,whenthefactisthattheyhavefailedtocomprehendit.
Inshort,theactuallevelofdiscussionislowerthananyoftheparticipantsimagines.
Availableat:http://oxrep.
oxfordjournals.
org/cgi/reprint/12/3/172.
22PaulKrugman&Venables,AnthonyJ.
,1996.
"Integration,specialization,andadjustment,"EuropeanEconomicReview,Elsevier,vol.
40(3-5),pages959-967,April.
Thepaperconsiderstheequilibriumlocationoftwoindustriesintwocountries.
Bothindustriesareimperfectlycompetitiveandproducegoodswhichareusedinfinalconsumptionandasintermediatesbyfirmsinthesameindustry.
Intermediateusagecreatescostanddemandlinkagesbetweenfirmsandatendencyforagglomerationofeachindustry.
Whentradebarriersarehightheequilibriuminvolvesdivisionofbothindustriesbetweenbothlocationsinordertomeetthefinaldemandsofconsumers.
Atlowertradebarriersagglomerationforcesdominateandtheequilibriuminvolvesspecialization,witheachindustryconcentratedinasinglelocation.
Economicintegrationmayinducespecialization.
ThepaperstudiesthesimpledynamicsofthemodelanddemonstratesthatduringtheadjustmentprocessasizeableproportionofSelectedReadings–October200840thelabourforcemaysufferlowerrealwagesasrelocationofindustryoccurs,althoughtherearelong-rungainsfromintegration.
Availableat:http://www.
sciencedirect.
com/science/article/B6V64-3VW8NC3-1S/2/fa8bf3505145848c4ce16b3f94fe8bb42.
23PaulKrugman,1996.
"ConfrontingtheMysteryofUrbanHierarchy,"JournaloftheJapaneseandInternationalEconomies,Elsevier,vol.
10(4),pages399-418,December.
ThesizedistributionofcitiesintheUnitedStatesisstartlinglywelldescribedbyasimplerpowerlaw:thenumberofcitieswhosepopulationexceedsSisproportionalto1/S.
Thissimpleregularityispuzzling;evenmorepuzzlingisthefactthatithasapparentlyremainedtrueforatleastthepastcentury.
Standardmodelsofurbansystemsoffernoexplanationofthepowerlaw.
ArandomgrowthmodelproposedbyHerbertSimon40yearsagoisthebesttrytodate-butwhileitcanexplainapowerlaw,itcannotreproduceonewiththerightexponent.
Atthispointweareinthefrustratingpositionofhavingastrikingempiricalregularitywithnogoodtheorytoaccountforit.
Availableat:http://www.
sciencedirect.
com/science/article/B6WMC-45MFXVY-4/2/a9398b14940dad353062a719e2ecf3bb2.
24Fujita,Masahisa&PaulKrugman,1995.
"Whenistheeconomymonocentric:vonThunenandChamberlinunified,"RegionalScienceandUrbanEconomics,Elsevier,vol.
25(4),pages505-528,August.
SinceTheIsolatedStatebyvonThünen,countlessversionsofthevonThünenmodelhaveappeared.
Itseems,however,thatafundamentalquestionremainsunanswered:WhyshouldallmanufacturinggoodsbeproducedinasingletownInthispaperwedevelopamonopolisticcompetitionmodelofan'isolatedstate',andinvestigatetheanswertothisquestion.
Sincetheanswertothisquestionsuggestswhentherewillbemorethanonetownintheisolatedstate,itishopedthepresentmodelwillleadtothedevelopmentofageneralequilibriummodelofurbansystems.
Availableat:http://www.
sciencedirect.
com/science/article/B6V89-3YF4BMT-M/2/0f97b425b59c32e8882ac79a3a610212SelectedReadings–October2008412.
25PaulKrugman,1995.
"Americaintheworldeconomy:Understandingthemisunderstandings,"JapanandtheWorldEconomy,Elsevier,vol.
7(2),pages233-247,July.
Oneofthereasonswhyeconomistshavedifficultyincommunicatingwiththegeneralpublicisthateconomistsarealwaystalkingaboutlimits,aboutwhycleverschemeswillnotwork.
Furthermore,successfulbusinessexecutiveshavedifficultyinrecognizingthattheydonotknowallabouttheeconomy.
Anumberofillustrationsaregivenoffallaciousthinking,andapleaismadetocounteractthetendencytomakesuchjudgments.
Availableat:http://www.
sciencedirect.
com/science/article/B6VF1-40079C7-X/2/ca8535e836215b7b824ee2d0a3ae0b242.
26PaulKrugman,1995.
"Innovationandagglomeration:Twoparablessuggestedbycity-sizedistributions,"JapanandtheWorldEconomy,Elsevier,vol.
7(4),pages371-390,November.
Noabstractavailable.
Availableat:http://www.
sciencedirect.
com/science/article/B6VF1-40079B8-1/2/fedaabc0b82c0cf5be433f9fd5a2d5e42.
27PaulKrugman,1995.
"GrowingWorldTrade:CausesandConsequences,"BrookingsPapersonEconomicActivity,EconomicStudiesProgram,TheBrookingsInstitution,vol.
26(1995-1),pages327-377.
Noabstractavailable.
Availableat:http://www.
brookings.
edu/press/Journals/1995/bpeamacro951.
aspx2.
28PaulKrugman,1994.
"ComplexLandscapesinEconomicGeography,"AmericanEconomicReview,AmericanEconomicAssociation,vol.
84(2),pages412-16,May.
Noabstractavailable.
Availableat:http://www.
jstor.
org/pss/2117869SelectedReadings–October2008422.
29PaulKrugman&Miller,Marcus,1993.
"Whyhaveatargetzone,"Carnegie-RochesterConferenceSeriesonPublicPolicy,Elsevier,vol.
38(1),pages279-314,June.
Thedesiretoavoidspeculativerunsoncurrenciesappearstobeoneofthemainreasonsleadingpolicy-makerstoimposecurrencybands,butthestandardanalysisoftargetzonesrulesoutanyspeculativeinefficienciesbyassumption.
Asanalternativewefirstpresentsimplemodelsofexcessvolatilityduetostop-losstradingandthengoontoconsiderwhattargetzonesmightaccomplishinthiscontext.
Theprincipalresultisthatthespeculationofinformedtradersshiftsfrombeingdestabilizingtostabilizing,oncethetargetzoneassuresthemthatstop-lossorderswillnotbetriggered.
Availableat:http://www.
sciencedirect.
com/science/article/B6V8D-45R2J1F-F/2/ed6942f8f9f79958f018691dccc0a3c12.
30PaulKrugman,1993.
"Onthenumberandlocationofcities,"EuropeanEconomicReview,Elsevier,vol.
37(2-3),pages293-298,April.
Noabstractavailable.
Availableat:http://www.
sciencedirect.
com/science/article/B6V64-45BC5JH-16/2/2acccfb0fa0998129c1834e5df45b69a2.
31PaulKrugman,1993.
"TheNarrowandBroadArgumentsforFreeTrade,"AmericanEconomicReview,AmericanEconomicAssociation,vol.
83(2),pages362-66,May.
Noabstractavailable.
Availableat:http://math.
stanford.
edu/~lekheng/krugman/trade3.
pdf2.
32PaulKrugman,1993.
"WhatDoUndergradsNeedtoKnowaboutTrade,"AmericanEconomicReview,AmericanEconomicAssociation,vol.
83(2),pages23-26,May.
Noabstractavailable.
Availableat:http://www.
jstor.
org/pss/21176332.
33PaulKrugman,1992.
"SecondthoughtsonEMU,"JapanandtheWorldEconomy,Elsevier,vol.
4(3),pages187-200,November.
SelectedReadings–October200843ConventionalwisdomholdsthatEMUiseconomicallybeneficialandthatitmustbeachievedbyagradualtransition.
Thispaperchallengesboththeseassumptions.
Thebenefitsaresupposedtoarisefromatradeoffofmacroeconomicflexibilityformicroeconomicefficiency,butboththeseconceptsareveryhardtoquantify,Further,ifitisbeneficialtoformEMU,nothingisgainedbydelayingit.
Availableat:http://www.
sciencedirect.
com/science/article/B6VF1-458XNYT-12/2/665c5b8935c08ca1a7f2245a03e5d06b2.
34PaulKrugman,1991.
"IncreasingReturnsandEconomicGeography,"JournalofPoliticalEconomy,UniversityofChicagoPress,vol.
99(3),pages483-99,June.
Thispaperdevelopsasimplemodelthatshowshowacountrycanendogenouslybecomedifferentiatedintoanindustrialized"core"andanagricultural"periphery.
"Inordertorealizescaleeconomieswhileminimizingtransportcosts,manufacturingfirmstendtolocateintheregionwithlargerdemand,butthelocationofdemanditselfdependsonthedistributionofmanufacturing.
Emergenceofacore-peripherypatterndependsontransportationscosts,economiesofscale,andtheshareofmanufacturinginnationalincome.
Availableat:http://www.
jstor.
org/pss/29377392.
35PaulKrugman,1991.
"HistoryversusExpectations,"TheQuarterlyJournalofEconomics,MITPress,vol.
106(2),pages651-67,May.
Inmodelswithexternaleconomies,thereareoftentwoormorelong-runequilibria.
WhichequilibriumischosenMuchoftheliteraturepresumesthat"history"setsinitialconditionsthatdeterminetheoutcome,butanalternativeviewstressestheroleof"'expectations,"i.
e.
,ofself-fulfillingprophecy.
Thispaperusesasimpletrademodelwithbothexternaleconomiesandadjustmentcoststoshowhowtheparametersoftheeconomydeterminetherelativeimportanceofhistoryandexpectationsindeterminingequilibrium.
Availableat:http://www.
jstor.
org/pss/2937950SelectedReadings–October2008442.
36PaulKrugman,1991.
"Exchangeratesandpolicycoordination:PeterB.
Kenen,(ManchesterUniversityPress,1989)pp.
135,JournalofInternationalEconomics,Elsevier,vol.
30(1-2),pages195-197,February.
Noabstractavailable.
Availableat:http://www.
sciencedirect.
com/science/article/B6V6D-45CX0TH-K/2/f67f0937f18d66e5341a5f5f4448ec9f2.
37PaulKrugman,1991.
"HistoryandIndustryLocation:TheCaseoftheManufacturingBelt,"AmericanEconomicReview,AmericanEconomicAssociation,vol.
81(2),pages80-83,May.
Noabstractavailable.
Availableat:http://www.
jstor.
org/pss/20068302.
38PaulKrugman,1991.
"TargetZonesandExchangeRateDynamics,"TheQuarterlyJournalofEconomics,MITPress,vol.
106(3),pages669-82,August.
Thispaperdevelopsasimplemodelofexchangeratebehaviorunderatargetzoneregime.
Itshowsthattheexpectationthatmonetarypolicywillbeadjustedtolimitexchangeratevariationaffectsexchangeratebehaviorevenwhentheexchangerateliesinsidethezoneandis,thus,notbeingdefendedactively.
Somewhatsurprisingly,theanalysisoftargetzonesturnsouttohaveastrongformalsimilaritytoproblemsinoptionpricingandinvestmentunderuncertainty.
Availableat:http://links.
jstor.
org/sicisici=0033-5533%28199108%29106%3A3%3C669%3ATZAERD%3E2.
0.
CO%3B2-E&origin=repec2.
39PaulKrugman,1991.
"Themovetowardfreetradezones,"EconomicReview,FederalReserveBankofKansasCity,issueNov,pages5-25.
Noabstractavailable.
Availableat:http://www.
kansascityfed.
org/PUBLICAT/ECONREV/EconRevArchive/1991/4q91krug.
pdf2.
40PaulKrugman,1990.
"Multinationalenterprise:Theoldandthenewinhistoryandtheory,"NorthAmericanReviewofEconomicsandFinance,Elsevier,vol.
1(2),pages267-280.
Noabstractavailable.
SelectedReadings–October200845Availableat:http://www.
sciencedirect.
com/science/article/B73FK-46TBC9Y-8/2/e77ce72ffac8dce2846b2da595cc296d2.
41PaulKrugman,1990.
"'Factormarketbarriersaretradebarriers'byR.
Baldwin,"EuropeanEconomicReview,Elsevier,vol.
34(4),pages846-847,June.
Noabstractavailable.
Availableat:http://www.
sciencedirect.
com/science/article/B6V64-45CX0BS-7M/2/04ebdf8c1da38852e17007710182db892.
42PaulKrugman,1989.
"Comments'ontheinternationalcapitalownershippatternattheturnofthetwenty-firstcentury'byKoichiHamadaandKazumasaIwata,"EuropeanEconomicReview,Elsevier,vol.
33(5),pages1083-1085,May.
Noabstractavailable.
Availableat:http://www.
sciencedirect.
com/science/article/B6V64-45DHYR4-1C/2/6c186c3fc7e2293cbeeca00efae293062.
43PaulKrugman,1989.
"TheJ-Curve,theFireSale,andtheHardLanding,"AmericanEconomicReview,AmericanEconomicAssociation,vol.
79(2),pages31-35,May.
Noabstractavailable.
Availableat:http://www2.
ups.
edu/faculty/veseth/econ371/firesale.
pdf2.
44PaulKrugman,1989.
"Differencesinincomeelasticitiesandtrendsinrealexchangerates,"EuropeanEconomicReview,Elsevier,vol.
33(5),pages1031-1046,May.
Onemightexpectthatdifferencesinincomeelasticitiesintradeand/ordifferencesingrowthratesamongcountrieswouldgiverisetostrongseculartrendsinrealexchangerates;forexample,fast-growingcountriesmightneedsteadydepreciationtogettheworldtoaccepttheirgrowingexports.
Infact,however,incomeelasticitiesaresystematicallyrelatedtogrowthratesbythe"45-degreerule",underwhichfast-growingcountriesappeartofacehighincomeelasticitiesofdemandfortheirexports,whilehavinglowincomeelasticitiesofimportdemand.
Theneteffectofthisrelationshipbetweenelasticitiesandgrowthratesisthatseculartrendsinrealexchangeratesaremuchsmallerthanonemightotherwisehaveexpected:relativeSelectedReadings–October200846PPPholdsfairlywell.
Thispaperdocumentstheexistenceofa"45-degreerule",andsuggestsanexplanationintermsofincreasingreturnsandproductdifferentiation.
Availableat:http://www.
sciencedirect.
com/science/article/B6V64-45DHYR4-16/2/efd9508ecb7f8639df397bb4653af5e92.
45Baldwin,Richard&PaulKrugman,1989.
"PersistentTradeEffectsofLargeExchangeRateShocks,"TheQuarterlyJournalofEconomics,MITPress,vol.
104(4),pages635-54,November.
Thispaperpresentsatheoreticalbasisfortheargumentthatlargeexchangerateshocks--suchasthe1980sdollarcycle--mayhavepersistenteffectsontradeflowsandtheequilibriumexchangerateitself.
Theauthorsbeginwithapartial-equilibriummodelinwhichlargeexchangeratefluctuationsleadtoentryorexitdecisionsthatarenotreversedwhenthecurrencyreturnstoitspreviouslevel.
Theythendevelopasimplemodelofthefeedbackfromhysteresisintradetotheexchangerateitself.
Heretheyseethatalargecapitalinflow,whichleadstoaninitialappreciation,canresultinapersistentreductionintheexchangerateconsistentwithtradebalance.
Availableat:http://links.
jstor.
org/sicisici=0033-5533%28198911%29104%3A4%3C635%3APTEOLE%3E2.
0.
CO%3B2-I&origin=repec2.
46PaulKrugman,1988.
"Financingvs.
forgivingadebtoverhang,"JournalofDevelopmentEconomics,Elsevier,vol.
29(3),pages253-268,November.
Thispaperexaminesthetradeoffsfacingcreditorsofacountrywhosedebtislargeenoughthatthecountrycannotattractvoluntarynewlending.
Ifthecountryisunabletomeetitsdebtservicerequirementsoutofcurrentincome,thecreditorshavetwochoices.
Theycanfinancethecountry,lendingatanexpectedlossinthehopethatthecountrywilleventuallybeabletorepayitsdebtafterall;ortheycanforgive,reducingthedebtleveltoonethatthecountrycanrepay.
Thepost-1983debtstrategyoftheIMFandtheUShasreliedonfinancing,butmanycurrentcallsfordebtreformcallforforgivenessinstead.
Thepapershowsthatthechoicebetweenfinancingandforgivenessrepresentsatradeoff.
Financinggivesthecreditorsanoptionvalue:ifthecountryturnsouttodorelativelywell,creditorswillnothavewrittendowntheirclaimsunnecessarily.
However,theburdenofdebtdistortsthecountry'sincentives,SelectedReadings–October200847sincethebenefitsofgoodperformancegolargelytocreditorsratherthanitself.
Thepaperalsoshowsthatthetradeoffitselfcanbeimprovedifbothfinancingandforgivenessaremadecontingentonstatesofnaturethatthecountrycannotaffect,suchasoilprices,worldinterestrates,etc.
Availableat:http://www.
sciencedirect.
com/science/article/B6VBV-45MFRNW-2G/2/51d0f7c7a53d4f90dd0bbe0c0a510dee2.
47PaulKrugman,1988.
"Exchangeratesandinternationaladjustment,"JapanandtheWorldEconomy,Elsevier,vol.
1(1),pages63-87,October.
Noabstractavailable.
Availableat:http://www.
sciencedirect.
com/science/article/B6VF1-458XNRP-6/2/d6c36964fe253021d8e93759086363412.
48PaulKrugman,1987.
"IsFreeTradePassé,"JournalofEconomicPerspectives,AmericanEconomicAssociation,vol.
1(2),pages131-44,Fall.
Noabstractavailable.
Availableat:http://www.
jstor.
org/pss/19429852.
49PaulKrugman,1987.
"Thenarrowmovingband,theDutchdisease,andthecompetitiveconsequencesofMrs.
Thatcher:Notesontradeinthepresenceofdynamicscaleeconomies,"JournalofDevelopmentEconomics,Elsevier,vol.
27(1-2),pages41-55,October.
Noabstractavailable.
Availableat:http://www.
sciencedirect.
com/science/article/B6VBV-45NHVN3-5/2/024ea7a28f98e6f1a0f733974eaf3cd12.
50PaulKrugman&RichardE.
Baldwin,1987.
"ThePersistenceoftheU.
S.
TradeDeficit,"BrookingsPapersonEconomicActivity,EconomicStudiesProgram,TheBrookingsInstitution,vol.
18(1987-1),pages1-56.
Noabstractavailable.
Availableat:http://www.
brookings.
edu/press/Journals/2007/brookingspapersoneconomicactivity12007.
aspxSelectedReadings–October2008482.
51PaulKrugman,1986.
"Internationaldebt:Systemicriskandpolicyresponse:WilliamR.
Cline,(InstituteforInternationalEconomics,Washington,1984)pp.
xix+317,"JournalofInternationalEconomics,Elsevier,vol.
20(3-4),pages389-391,May.
Noabstractavailable.
Availableat:http://www.
sciencedirect.
com/science/article/B6V6D-4CB7764-1K/2/132c75ba349e6ee07ff79a18b05fa7c12.
52PaulKrugman&TorstenPersson&LarsE.
O.
Svensson,1985.
"Inflation,InterestRates,andWelfare,"TheQuarterlyJournalofEconomics,MITPress,vol.
100(3),pages677-95,August.
Noabstractavailable.
Availableat:http://links.
jstor.
org/sicisici=0033-5533%28198508%29100%3A3%3C677%3AIIRAW%3E2.
0.
CO%3B2-V&origin=repec2.
53PaulKrugman,1984.
"TheU.
S.
ResponsetoForeignIndustrialTargeting,"BrookingsPapersonEconomicActivity,EconomicStudiesProgram,TheBrookingsInstitution,vol.
15(1984-1),pages77-132.
Noabstractavailable.
Availableat:http://www.
brookings.
edu/press/Journals/2007/brookingspapersoneconomicactivity12007.
aspx2.
54PaulKrugman,1983.
"NewTheoriesofTradeamongIndustrialCountries,"AmericanEconomicReview,AmericanEconomicAssociation,vol.
73(2),pages343-47,May.
Noabstractavailable.
Availableat:http://www.
jstor.
org/pss/18168672.
55Brander,James&PaulKrugman,1983.
"A'reciprocaldumping'modelofinternationaltrade,"JournalofInternationalEconomics,Elsevier,vol.
15(3-4),pages313-321,November.
Thispaperdevelopsamodelinwhichtherivalryofoligopolisticfirmsservesasanindependentcauseofinternationaltrade.
Themodelshowshowsuchrivalrynaturallygivesriseto"dumping"ofoutputinforeignmarkets,andshowsthatsuchdumpingcanbe"reciprocal"--thatis,theremaybetwo-waytradeinthesameproduct.
SelectedReadings–October200849Reciprocaldumpingisshowntobepossibleforfairlygeneralspecificationoffirmbehaviour.
Thewelfareeffectsofthisseeminglypointlesstradeareambiguous.
Ononehand,resourcesarewastedinthecross-handlingofgoods;ontheotherhand,increasedcompetitionreducesmonopolydistortions.
Surprisingly,inthecaseoffreeentryandCournotbehaviourreciprocaldumpingisunambiguouslybeneficial.
Availableat:http://www.
sciencedirect.
com/science/article/B6V6D-4FTGCKR-8/2/1466196fb6343b3a8f40c9cb7bbef6082.
56PaulKrugman,1982.
"'Simulatinganoilshockwithstickyprices'byGiavazziet.
al,"EuropeanEconomicReview,Elsevier,vol.
18(1),pages37-39a.
Noabstractavailable.
Availableat:http://www.
sciencedirect.
com/science/article/B6V64-45F62YC-4H/2/c4d6a5b5242462cf68dec15a53fe10672.
57PaulKrugman,1982.
"Themacroeconomicsofprotectionwithafloatingexchangerate,"Carnegie-RochesterConferenceSeriesonPublicPolicy,Elsevier,vol.
16(1),pages141-182,January.
Noabstractavailable.
Availableat:http://www.
sciencedirect.
com/science/article/B6V8D-45F5SJ3-V/2/7f9eb9120a20e2df0e816725372ba07c2.
58PaulKrugman,1981.
"IntraindustrySpecializationandtheGainsfromTrade,"JournalofPoliticalEconomy,UniversityofChicagoPress,vol.
89(5),pages959-73,October.
Noabstractavailable.
Availableat:http://www.
jstor.
org/pss/18308152.
59PaulKrugman,1981.
"Trade,accumulation,andunevendevelopment,"JournalofDevelopmentEconomics,Elsevier,vol.
8(2),pages149-161,April.
Noabstractavailable.
Availableat:http://www.
sciencedirect.
com/science/article/B6VBV-45GNWFM-J/2/43dca5f8a8af07f6626be87e0304e5f7SelectedReadings–October2008502.
60PaulKrugman,1980.
"ScaleEconomies,ProductDifferentiation,andthePatternofTrade,"AmericanEconomicReview,AmericanEconomicAssociation,vol.
70(5),pages950-59,December.
Noabstractavailable.
Availableat:http://www.
jstor.
org/pss/18057742.
61PaulKrugman,1980.
"VehicleCurrenciesandtheStructureofInternationalExchange,"JournalofMoney,CreditandBanking,BlackwellPublishing,vol.
12(3),pages513-26,August.
Noabstractavailable.
Availableat:http://www.
jstor.
org/pss/19917252.
62PaulKrugman,1979.
"AModelofInnovation,TechnologyTransfer,andtheWorldDistributionofIncome,"JournalofPoliticalEconomy,UniversityofChicagoPress,vol.
87(2),pages253-66,April.
Noabstractavailable.
Availableat:http://www.
jstor.
org/pss/18320862.
63PaulKrugman,1979.
"Increasingreturns,monopolisticcompetition,andinternationaltrade,"JournalofInternationalEconomics,Elsevier,vol.
9(4),pages469-79,November.
Noabstractavailable.
Availableat:http://www.
sciencedirect.
com/science/article/B6V6D-45DJ12M-4W/2/ecd8fb114c1817e124241bc2c48211b32.
64PaulKrugman,1979.
"AModelofBalance-of-PaymentsCrises,"JournalofMoney,CreditandBanking,BlackwellPublishing,vol.
11(3),pages311-25,August.
Noabstractavailable.
Availableat:http://www.
jstor.
org/pss/19917932.
65PaulKrugman&Taylor,Lance,1978.
"Contractionaryeffectsofdevaluation,"JournalofInternationalEconomics,Elsevier,vol.
8(3),pages445-56,August.
Noabstractavailable.
Availableat:http://www.
sciencedirect.
com/science/article/B6V6D-45F8YDK-1N/2/1399ce776bc9a8bd2758e720be7ff545SelectedReadings–October2008512.
66PaulKrugman,1978.
"Purchasingpowerparityandexchangerates:Anotherlookattheevidence,"JournalofInternationalEconomics,Elsevier,vol.
8(3),pages397-407,August.
Noabstractavailable.
Availableat:http://www.
sciencedirect.
com/science/article/B6V6D-45F8YDK-1H/2/1cc98ef7f7d5601c0a92d683348b89322.
67RudigerDornbusch&PaulKrugman,1976.
"FlexibleExchangeRatesintheShortRun,"BrookingsPapersonEconomicActivity,EconomicStudiesProgram,TheBrookingsInstitution,vol.
7(1976-3),pages537-584.
Noabstractavailable.
Availableat:http://www.
brookings.
edu/press/Journals/2007/brookingspapersoneconomicactivity12007.
aspxSelectedReadings–October2008523CHAPTERS3.
1PaulKrugman,1995.
"Increasingreturns,imperfectcompetitionandthepositivetheoryofinternationaltrade,"HandbookofInternationalEconomics,in:G.
M.
Grossman&K.
Rogoff(ed.
),HandbookofInternationalEconomics,edition1,volume3,chapter24,pages1243-1277Elsevier.
Noabstractavailable.
Availableat:http://www.
sciencedirect.
com/science/article/B7P5T-4FKY233-4/2/1bcbe2b49808cddd2a1d8f40da2a72393.
2PaulKrugman,1993.
"RecentThinkingaboutExchangeRateDeterminationandPolicy,"RBAAnnualConferenceVolume,in:AdrianBlundell-Wignall(ed.
),TheExchangeRate,InternationalTradeandtheBalanceofPaymentsReserveBankofAustralia.
Noabstractavailable.
Availableat:http://www.
rba.
gov.
au/PublicationsAndResearch/Conferences/1993/Krugman.
pdf3.
3PaulKrugman,1989.
"Industrialorganizationandinternationaltrade,"HandbookofIndustrialOrganization,in:R.
Schmalensee&R.
Willig(ed.
),HandbookofIndustrialOrganization,edition1,volume2,chapter20,pages1179-1223Elsevier.
Noabstractavailable.
Availableat:http://www.
sciencedirect.
com/science/article/B7P5S-4FD79WP-Y/2/0f7938423936cb07ab8e9c28dca8b888SelectedReadings–October2008534BOOKS4.
1MasahisaFujita&PaulKrugman&AnthonyJ.
Venables,2001.
"TheSpatialEconomy:Cities,Regions,andInternationalTrade,"MITPressBooks,TheMITPress,edition1,volume1,number0262561476,03.
Since1990therehasbeenarenaissanceoftheoreticalandempiricalworkonthespatialaspectsoftheeconomy--thatis,whereeconomicactivityoccursandwhy.
Usingnewtools--inparticular,modelingtechniquesdevelopedtoanalyzeindustrialorganization,internationaltrade,andeconomicgrowth--this"neweconomicgeography"hasemergedasoneofthemostexcitingareasofcontemporaryeconomics.
Theauthorsshowhowseeminglydisparatemodelsreflectafewbasicthemes,andinsodoingtheydevelopacommon"grammar"fordiscussingavarietyofissues.
Theyshowhowacommonapproachthatemphasizesthethree-wayinteractionamongincreasingreturns,transportationcosts,andthemovementofproductivefactorscanbeappliedtoawiderangeofissuesinurban,regional,andinternationaleconomics.
Thisbookisthefirsttoprovideasoundandunifiedexplanationoftheexistenceoflargeeconomicagglomerationsatvariousspatialscales.
4.
2PaulKrugman,1997.
"TheAgeofDiminishedExpectations,3rdEdition:U.
S.
EconomicPolicyinthe1990s,"MITPressBooks,TheMITPress,edition3,volume1,number0262611341,03.
PaulKrugman'spopularguidetotheeconomiclandscapeofthe1990shasbeenrevisedandupdatedtotakeintoaccounteconomicdevelopmentsoftheyearsfrom1994-1997.
Newmaterialinthethirdeditionincludes:*Anewchapter--completewithcolorfulexamplesfromLloyd'sofLondonandSumitomoMetals--onhowriskybehaviorcanleadtodisasterinprivatemarkets.
*AnevaluationoftheFederalReserve'sroleinreiningineconomicgrowthtopreventinflation,andthedebateoverwhetheritstargetsaretoolow.
*AlookatthecollapseoftheMexicanpesoandtheburstofJapan's"bubble"economy.
*Areviseddiscussionofthefederalbudgetdeficit,includingthegrowthconcernthatSocialSecurityandMedicarepaymentstoSelectedReadings–October200854SelectedReadings–October200855retiringbabyboomerswillthreatenthesolvencyofthegovernment.
Finally,intheupdatedconcludingsection,theauthorprovidesthreepossiblescenariosfortheAmericaneconomyoverthenextdecade.
Hewarnsusthatweliveinageofdiminishedexpectations,inwhichthevotingpubliciswillingtosettleforpolicydrift--butwiththefirstbabyboomersturning65in2011,theeconomywillnotbeabletodriftindefinitely.