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12020VisionforLTEByKeithMallinson,WiseHarborJune20,2012Thenewmobilecommunicationstechnologiesinventedandensuingcapabilitiesprovidedtooperatorsandenduserssinceinceptionofcellulararound30yearsagoareoutstanding.
Whiledevelopmentgoalshaveevolvedsignificantlyoverthedecades,thepaceofinnovationcontinuesunabated.
Attheheartoftheworld-leadingmobiletechnologyecosystem,since1998,isstandardisationbythe3GPPproducingamajorreleaseoftechnicalspecificationseveryyearortwo.
FollowingtheintroductionofanentirelynewairinterfacewithLTEinRelease8,andwithvariousenhancementssubsequently,upcomingRelease12andbeyondwillbeassignificantaseverintheindustry'squesttoextendmobilebroadbandavailability,providemuchmoreconsistentservicequality,andeconomicallysatisfydemandforspirallingdatagrowthinfaceofspectrumscarcityandotherconstraints.
The3GPPTechnicalSpecificationGroupresponsibleforRadioAccessNetworktechnologiesmetforatwo-dayworkshopinSloveniaearlierthismonthtoconsiderwhatshouldbeevaluatedforimplementationinRelease12.
Forty-fivemobiletechnologyvendorsandoperatorstookpart,with250peopleattendingtheevent.
Presentations,commentsandconclusionsareavailableforanyonetoaccessviathe3GPPwebsite.
Onthebasisofconsensusamongthis3GPPmembershipandfurtherstudywork,Release12willmostlikelybe"frozen"in2014,withcommercialimplementationsbeginningacoupleofyearslaterandextensiveworldwideadoptiontoward2020.
TheGenerationGameSuccessivemobilegenerationsaretypicallydepictedintechnologicalterms.
Fortheworld'smobileoperatorsfollowingthestandardspath,firstlaidbyETSIandthen3GPP,1Ganaloguewasfollowedby2GTDMA-basedGSM,then3Gwideband-CDMA-basedUMTSand3G/4GOFDMA-basedLTE.
However,concurrentwitheachgenerationalshifthavebeenprofoundadvancesinthecapabilities,economicsandavailabilityofnetwork,deviceandserviceofferings.
Outdoorcoverageinurbanareasandalonghighwaysforpredominantlycarphoneusebyaprivilegedminoritywasprovidedby1Gnetworks.
Introductionof2Gsincetheearly1990ssubstantiallyincreasedvoicecapacityandreducedcosts.
Cellularsoonbecameeconomicfor2mass-marketconsumeradoptioninanynation.
Theresultis6billionGSMsubscriptionsforvoiceandtextworldwidetoday.
Theadditionof3Gsincetheearly2000sprovidedfurthervoicecapacityandthen,withHSPA,thehigherspeedsandlowerlatenciesrequiredtostimulatesignificantmobilebroadbanduse.
Enhancementstoestablished3GtechnologiesandintroductionofLTEwithReleases8-11havemadeheadline-grabbingnews,withpeakdataspeedsinthetensofmegabitspersecond—1,000timesfasterthanadecadeearlierwithGPRS.
WhatmorecouldanybodypossiblyneedorwantWearestillatjustthebeginningofthemobilebroadbandrevolution.
Theextentofmarketdevelopmentanduseradoptionformobileweb,apps,multimediaandlocationcapabilities,amongothers,iscomparabletotheearlystagesoftheswitchfrom1Gto2G.
Mobilebroadband,whileimpressivewhereavailableandforthosewhouseit,wasonlyapursuitforasmallminorityuntilthelastcoupleofyears.
Coverageremainspatchy,withinsufficientcapacityinmanyplaces;anderraticservicequality,includinghighly-variabledataspeeds—fromcell-to-cellandfromcellcentretocelledge.
Whilemakingmajorimprovementsonallthesefrontstosatisfythecurrentbaseofusersandexistingusageprofiles,thereisalsothepressingneedtosatisfymassivegrowthindatatraffic.
Thisiswidely-recognised,among3GPPmembersandexternalobservers,tohavedoubledeachyearandissettocontinuegrowingrapidly.
Thiswillresultfromnewservices,suchashighlyconnection-persistentcloudservices,heavierusageperuserallaroundandyetmorepeopletradingupfromvoiceandtexttomobilebroadbanddevicesandserviceplans.
Virtuallyallcommentatorsexpecta15to30-foldtrafficincreaseoverfiveyearsandseveralexpectthisgrowthtrendtolastadecadeto2020,representinga250-1,000-foldincrease.
Howcanallthatbeachieved;andatlowenoughcoststocoverandbeaffordedbyhalftheworld'spopulation,plusbillionsmoremachine-to-machineconnectionsAlleviatingtheCapacityCrunchThebiggestchallengefacingmobileoperatorsandtheirtechnologysuppliersisinsatisfyingthisexponentialgrowthindatatraffic.
Theproportionofuserswithsmartphoneandothermobilebroadbanddevicesisincreasing.
Theseusersarealreadythemajorityinseveraldevelopednations.
Peruserdatademandsareescalatingwithalwayson,alwayswithyouaccesstoaburgeoningarrayofapplicationsandservicesincludingthosedeliveredfromnetwork-intensivevideoandcloudservices.
LTEnetworksarealreadyprovidingheadlinespeedsapproaching100Mbps,buttheseareonlypossibleunderidealconditionsonlightlyloadednetworksandwhereuserequipmentisclosetothebasestationradioantenna.
3ManytechnologiesandfeaturesintroducedinpreviousreleasesarebeingenhancedandsupplementedwithnewadditionsinReleases12and13.
Thesedevelopmentswillincreasenetworkcapacity,whilealsoprovidingmoreconsistentservicequality,withtheproductofthreecompoundingfactors.
Illustrativeimprovementfiguresof3x6x56=1,008weresuggestedbySKTelecomunderthreebroadheadings.
Thespecificswereidentifiedanddescribedincontributionsfrommanyworkshopparticipants.
3xincreaseinspectrumemployedExistingbandswillberefarmedformoreefficientuse.
Newlicensedbands,includinghigherfrequenciesforhot-spotdemandzoneswillbeintroduced.
Thiswillallbeusedincombinationwithunlicensedspectrum,ifsuitable,whilepossiblyexploitingcognitiveradiotechniquestoaccessandmanagethelatter.
TDDmodeLTEisunleashingaccesstounpairedspectrum.
Carrieraggregationincludingthecombinationofdifferentbandsandmodeswillincreasetotalcapacity,headlinespeedsandtrunkingefficiency.
6ximprovementinspectralefficiencyAplethoraoftechnologiesarehelpingincreasetheamountofdatatransportedperHzofspectrumused,toreducelatencyandincreasespeeds—withemphasisonaveragespeedsachievableacrosstheentirecellincludingcelledges.
Improvingconsistencyofserviceperformance,ratherthanjustpeakspeed—dependingontimeandplace—isthekey.
Higher-ordermodulationto256QAM,coordinatedmultiplepointtransmissionandinterferencemanagementtechniqueswillimprovecell-edgeperformance.
3DMIMOandmassiveantennabeamformingwitharraysofasmanyas64antennaelements4enableadditionalfrequencyreusewithincellsectors.
Withstrongconsensusin3GPPtomaintainLTE'sOFDMAairinterfaceinthedownlink,some3Gparticipantsfavourintroducingsomethingsimilartoimproveuplinkperformance.
56xhigheraveragecelldensityTheadditionofmanysmallcellsinHetNetconfigurationsincludingmacro,micro,picofemto,relaystationsandevencloudsofantennaewillprovidethebiggestboosttocapacitythroughextremefrequencyreuse.
With70percentoftrafficathomeorintheoffice,buildingspresentbothopportunities(e.
g.
,accesstopowerandbackhaul)anddifficulties(e.
g.
,signalattenuation).
Improvedbackhaul,andsidehaulingviaX2interface(forinter-cellsignalling),willsupporttechniquessuchasbasebandpoolingandinter-cellcoordinationthatcanmostefficientlyandeffectivelyorchestrateresourceswiththelargearraysofradioheadsthatwillbedeployedinhigh-demandlocations.
Thereareinitiativestosimplifymanagementacrosscellswithrationalisedsignallingandcontrolmaintainedatthemacrolayer,andintroductionofphantomcellsinhigh-densitysmallcelllayers.
Source:Artist4GLTEtakesCentreStageLTEhasuniversalappealandwillsoonpredominateworldwide.
Theworkshopparticipantsoverwhelminglyendorsedthisasthedefinitiveairinterfacestandardforongoingdevelopment.
WhereastheUSleadsLTEwith70%ofconnectionstoday,manyothernationsaremovingtodeployLTEquickly.
MorethanhalfofmobilesubscribersinKoreawillbeusingLTEwithintwoyears.
LTEwillprovidetheprimaryoronlybroadbandaccesstobillionsofpeopleindevelopingnationswherefixednetworkalternativesarenotavailable.
5Meanwhile,operatorswishtoprotecttheirinvestmentsinoldertechnologies.
Theymaynot,forexample,beabletorefarmscarcespectrumfromlegacytechnologyuseforseveralyears.
Release12willalsoincludevariousenhancementsthatwillimprovespectralefficiencyandservicequalityinUMTSnetworksusingHSPAtechnologies.
Inadditiontohelpingmaximisecoverageandroaming,legacy3GPPstandardsfacilitatecompetitionamongstandardsbecausevendors'strengthsandstrategiesvaryfromtechnologytotechnology.
WithLTE'spreeminentposition,thistechnologyisalsotheprinciplefocusforavarietyofadditionaldevelopmentobjectivesincluding:ExtendingusageprofilesandfindingnewwaysofdoingthingsLTEhasbecomethetargetplatformformachine-typecommunications(machine-to-machine),publicsafetyuseandproximityservices(device-to-device).
Publicsafetyusersareplaguedwithinteroperabilityproblemsamongdifferentemergencyserviceproviders,radiotechnologiesandfrequencybandsthattheybelievefocusingonLTEcanhelpsolve.
Resiliencetoearthquake,tsunamiandhurricaneareincreasinglyimportantforthesekindsofusers.
D2Disjustlikethegoodoldwalkie-talkie–prettyusefulifthenetworkhasbeenwipedoutinanaturaldisaster—whilealsoemployingandcomplyingwithLTE-basedstandardisedtechnologiesthatcanprovidethehighestperformancemosteconomically.
Energy,economicsandenvironmentNetworkpoweranduserequipmentbatterysavingareimportantdevelopmentobjectivesbeingspearheadedthrough3GPPstandardswork.
AccordingtoTelefonica,electricalpoweraccountsfor30%ofOPEX,ofwhich50%isforpoweramplifiers.
Lowpowermodesandsolarenergysourcesreduceelectricgridconsumption,mitigatedemandforcostlydieselgenerationinremotelocationsandreducecarbonfootprints.
Flatternetworks,withdecentralisedaswellascentralisedarchitectures(e.
g.
,usingbasebandresourcepoolingandvirtualisation)willalsoreducethecostperbpsofnetworkcapacityandperbyteofdatatraffictransported.
Managingcomplexity,interoperability,compromisingandautomatingMobilecommunicationsstandardsareincreasinglyextensive,complexandinvolvethousandsofpeopleintheirdevelopmentandimplementation.
Thiscreatessignificationmanagementandoperationalchallenges,andtrade-offsfor3GPPparticipantstoweigh-up.
Under-specifyingorover-specifying,includingtoomanyoptions—manyofwhichmayneverbeimplemented—causesproblemsin6interoperabilitytesting.
Balancingthebenefitsofbackwardcompatibilitywiththecostsandcomplexitiesincurredwhilecreatingenhancementsrequirescompromise.
Therehasbeenenormoussuccessinachievingend-userandvendorinteroperabilitythroughmobilestandardssincetheintroductionofGSM,butthecostsofachievinghighestlevelsofcompatibilityarenotjustifiedineverysinglecasewheninteroperabilityisalreadypossiblethroughexistingmodesorbands.
Self-organisingnetworktechnologiesforconfiguration,managementandrepairwillhelpmanagecomplexitiesinnetworkoperations,whileautomatingorreplacingcostlyfunctionssuchasdrivetesting.
FootnoteforHeadlineWritersWhereas3GPPconsensusisthatcapacityisfarmoreimportantthanspeed,theupcomingenhancementstoLTEwillalsoincreasedataratesbyafactorof10toinexcessof1Gbpsonthemoveinthewidearea,andwith10Gbpspeakrates.
Thatwillcontinuetokeeptheheadlinewritersandmarketerssatisfied.
Theycanhappilykeepboastingaboutmaximumspeedincreases,withtheseeye-poppingfigures,whiletheindustrydeliverssomemuchmoreimportantimprovements.
KeithMallinsonisaleadingindustryexpert,analystandconsultant.
Solvingbusinessproblemsinwirelessandmobilecommunications,hefoundedconsultingfirmWiseHarborin2007.
WiseHarborpublishesanExtendedMobileBroadbandForecast.
Thisincludesnetworkequipment,devicesandcarrierservicesto2025.
Furtherdetailsareavailableat:http://www.
wiseharbor.
com/forecast.
html.