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SINAWeiboEnterpriseUserActivityUpdateJLWarrenCapitalwww.
jlwarrencapital.
com(001)646-398-9973Feb13,2013JLWarrenCapitalPage1Summary:UsingGoldpebbleWeiboActivityMonitoringSystem(GPWAMS),weseeWeibouseractivitieshavebeengrowingoverthepastmonths.
Weibopayingenterpriseusershassurgedwhiledaily/monthlybloggingusergrowthhasdecelerated.
TotalWeibousers,dailybloggingusersandmonthlybloggingusersreachedanewhighof363mn*,14.
7mn*and50.
9mn*respectivelyinDecember2012.
Thenumberofenterpriseusersacceleratedto354k*from328k*inNovember.
Thenumberofpayingusersmorethandoubledfrom308k*inNovemberto691k*inDecember.
Thebearviewisthatthefast-growingTencent(HKEX:0700)WechatapphastakenamajorityusersharefromWeibo.
Wedisagreeafterlookingintothereasonsbehindtherecentpayingusersurge.
Sixty-eightpercentofWeibouserslogontoWeibowithamobilehandsetnow.
WiththeCEOinchargeofWeibobusinessandthewholecompanyfocusingonmobiledeviceusage,2013willbethestartoftheplatform'smonetization.
Atthesametime,Sinahasspeduptestingitsnewformsofsocial-basedadvertising(midJan,2013),releasedits'Like'buttonfeaturetothird-partywebsitesandapps(earlyJan,2013),addedanappstoreonitsWeiboapp(midJan,2013),harshlycrackeddownontheunofficialadvertisementactivities(midJan,2013),andactsasasalesplatformforSmartcarsandXiaomihandsets.
WeestimatedtherevenuefromWeibo'sbanneradsforbrandingclientswillbelimitedbyitsdisplayspaceandcappedat$371mn*peryearbasedoncurrentuseractivitiesandratecard.
Sinaneedstodevelopasocial-basedadvertisingsystemtoincreasetherevenuefromSMEswithoutcompromisinguserexperience.
WethinkSinaisreadytoreleaseprioritydisplayonfollowers'pagesandistestingsuggestedposts,locations,andsearchresultrecommendations.
ThesefeaturesarebasedonaverysimilartechnologyframeworkthatFacebook(NASDAQ:FB)hasimplemented.
ThefixedbanneradvertisingclientofWeibooverlapswiththesina.
com.
cnportal.
WehavebeencountingWeibo'sadvertisingbannersonPC,AndroidphoneandiPhoneforthepastseveralweeks.
WefoundWeiboalreadypenetratedover60topglobalbrandsSINAWeiboEnterpriseUserActivityUpdateJLWarrenCapitalwww.
jlwarrencapital.
com(001)646-398-9973Feb13,2013JLWarrenCapitalPage2aswellastoplocalbrands.
Wefurtherdidascreenoftopglobal500brandsto219*andgotWeiboenterpriseaccountswithanaverageof334k*fans/followers.
Chinahasitsuniqueculture,internetdevelopment,consumptionpattern,andonlinespendingbehavior.
ThemonetizationpathSinaisfollowingisunprecedentedinChina.
Weiboisdoingmorethanadvertising.
Welookedintoitsmonetizationofits229*webgames,15,697*WeiboappsandAndroidappstoreinsidetheWeiboapp,andrecentlyfulfilledsalestransactions.
AstrategicpartnershipwithcurrentP4PsearchproviderslikeBaidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)(searchlinks)orAlibaba(TaobaoThroughTrain)maybringmutualbenefitstobothparties.
Baiduisthelargestonlineadvertisingplatformwithmorethan$1billioninquarterlyrevenueandTaobaoThroughTrainisearningaround$700million*inquarterlyrevenue.
Sina,with$100millionearnedfromfixedbanneradsfromtheportaland$20millionfromfixedbanneradsonWeibo,mayinstantlymonetizeitstrafficwhileBaiduand/orAlibabacannotonlygetrevenuebutaccessthetrafficofoneofthebestmobileappsinChina.
Alibaba'sTaobaoandSina'sWeiboarealreadyreferringtwo-waytrafficleadstooneanother,thuscreatingmoresynergybetweenthetwo.
IthasbeenconfirmedbyseveralmediareportsthatAlibabaandBaiduarebothintalkswithSinaaboutbuyingapartofWeibo.
SINAWeiboEnterpriseUserActivityUpdateJLWarrenCapitalwww.
jlwarrencapital.
com(001)646-398-9973Feb13,2013JLWarrenCapitalPage3WeiboUserActivitiesPlateauing,ataVeryHighLevelGoldpebbledevelopedGoldpebbleWeiboActivityMonitoringSystem(GPWAMS)inSeptember2012andisabletorandomlysamplemillionsofWeibouserspermonth.
Withthissystem,wedidaresearchin2H12aboutWeibo'susersandfoundthemajorityofWeibo'sregisteredusersaredormant(or'zombieusers').
Atthesametime,Wechatgrewitsnumberofuserssignificantlyto300mn,withlessthanhalfofthetimeasWeibo.
InvestorsareinterestedintryingWechat,andthusimageWeibo'sactivitiesaredeclining.
Itisatypicalbiasofownexperience.
Chart:SinaRegisteredUserandTencentWeiboRegisteredUserSource:Sina,TencentOurGPWAMSdatashow,however,Weibouseractivitiesarestillgrowing,thoughataslowerpace.
Butthenumberofpayingusersandenterpriseusersisstillincreasingataveryhighspeedmonthovermonth.
Wesawtotalusers,dailybloggingusersandmonthlybloggingusersreachednewhighto363mn,14.
7mnand50.
9mnrespectivelyinDecember2012.
Thenumberofenterpriseusersacceleratedto354k.
Thenumberofpayingusersmorethandoubledfrom308kto691kinDecember.
SINAWeiboEnterpriseUserActivityUpdateJLWarrenCapitalwww.
jlwarrencapital.
com(001)646-398-9973Feb13,2013JLWarrenCapitalPage4Table:UserActivitiesforOcttoDec,2012Source:GPWMS,www.
goldpebble.
comThepayingWeibousersgot24features.
Mostofthefeaturesare'ornaments,'buttherearecertainfeatureswithgoodutilizations.
Forexample,SinalaunchedmorespaceofWeidiskforpayinguserssincemid-September2012.
Thepayingusercanget100GBto1TBofcloudstorageforfree.
Withthe10RMBpermonthWeibopayinguserfee,theWeibopayinguser'scostforcloudstorageismerelyafractionofDropbox's$19.
99-$49.
99permonthfor100-500GBstorage.
Chart:WeiboPayingUserPrivilege1.
IdentityPrivilege:Exclusivesymbol,Exclusivetheme,Exclusivemedal,Exclusivenumberaccount,Exclusivecustomerservice2.
FeaturePrivilege:Blockfunction,Priorityweibo,Increasetheuplimitofgroupfunction,Acceleratinggrowthlevel,Recommend,User-definedcoverpage,Priorityplacedisplayedatfriends,HugestoragespaceinWeidisk,Increasetheuplimitoffollow,Followsecretly3.
MobilePrivilege:Voiceweibo,Specialfollowfunctionwithsms,Birthdayremind,Exclusivethemeonclientsoftware4.
SaftyPrivilege:Smssecurityremind,Smspasswordreset5.
GamePrivilege:Exclusivegamegift,GameprivilegecardSource:Weibo.
comOrganizationRestructureBoostWeiboMonetizationSINAWeiboEnterpriseUserActivityUpdateJLWarrenCapitalwww.
jlwarrencapital.
com(001)646-398-9973Feb13,2013JLWarrenCapitalPage5Attheendof2012,CharlesCao,CEOofSina,announcedorganizationrestructureofSina.
Inanopenlettertohiscolleagues,heillustratedthestrategyof'MobileFirst'in2013forSina.
Thecompanywillbedividedintotwobusinessunits.
CharlesCaoistheheadofWeibobusiness,andtheCOO,HongDu,istheheadofitsportalbusiness.
TheWeiboappisoneofthemostpopularapp'sonmobilehandsetsinChina.
AccordingtoSina,Weibohas42mndailyactiveusers,andthedailyaverageusageforanactiveuseronWeiboisaround1hour.
Inarecentconferencecall,Sinasaidthat68%ofWeibouserslogtoWeibowithamobilehandset(47%logontoWeibowithaPC).
Withthewholecompanyfocusingongoingmobile,2013willseesomeofWeibo'smilestonedevelopments.
Atthesametime,Sinahasspeduptestingitsnewformsofsocial-basedadvertising(midJan,2013),releasedits'Like'buttonfeaturetothird-partywebsitesandapps(earlyJan,2013),addedanappstoreonitsWeiboapp(midJan,2013),harshlycrackeddownontheunofficialadvertisementactivities(midJan,2013),andactsasasalesplatformforSmartcarsandXiaomihandsets.
SocialBasedMonetizationAccelerating,targetingSMEsWeibostarteditsmonetizationinQ22012andrecorded$10mninadvertisingrevenueforQ22012and$20mninadvertisingrevenueforQ32012.
CurrentWeibomonetizationismainlyfromfixedbanneradvertising.
Theclientsareallbrandownerswhoadvertiseforthepurposeofbranding.
AlthoughWeiboadvertisementrevenueisstillgrowingveryfast,weareinevitablyseeingthebottleneckofthelimitedfixed/banneradvertisementinventory.
Giventhatthereare42mndailyactiveusers,andthateachuserwillseeroughlysixbannerseveryday,therewillbe252mnviewsperday.
Togetherwithanaverageof25RMBperCPM,dailyrevenuecanbetoppedatRMB6.
3mnforWeibo(or$371mnperyear).
ThisiswhySinamustdevelopotherformsofadvertisement,including,apprecommendations,enterpriseaccountrecommendations,webgameoperations,andpayinguserfeatures.
WeareseeingthatSinahasspentaloteffortondevelopingasocial-basedadvertisementsystemsoastoexpanditsrevenuepotential.
Atthesametime,social-basedadvertisementshavelessnegativeinfluenceontheuserexperience.
AlgorithmSortStartingonJune18,2012,WeiboenableduserstoreadtheWeibointerfaceinanalgorithm-sortedorderratherthanchronologicalorder.
ThisisaverysimilarfunctiontothatwhichFacebookintroducedinNovember2011.
Wethinkitisoneofthefoundationfunctionstoplugonthesocial-basedadvertisement.
SINAWeiboEnterpriseUserActivityUpdateJLWarrenCapitalwww.
jlwarrencapital.
com(001)646-398-9973Feb13,2013JLWarrenCapitalPage6Weibo/Facebookcaninsertsocial-basedadsintousers'newsfeedpanelsaccordingtotheusers'relationships,bloggingandotherprofiles.
Chart:IntelligenceSortFeatureofWeiboandFacebook:Source:WeiboandFacebookPriorityDisplayonFollower'sPanel:Thisfeatureenablesenterpriseuserstopayforeachdisplayonthetopoftheirfollower'spage.
Itwastestedbyabigbannerclientduringthesummerof2012,andSinaisgoingtoopenthisfeaturetoallits340k*enterpriseaccounts.
Thisisaverygoodmonetizationideathathurtsveryfewoftheusers;forinstance,ifauser"follows"BMWonWeibo,heorshewillseeBMW'scurrentpromotionontopofitspage.
Weareseeingtheinfrastructureforenterpriseusersarepartiallyready,andthepreliminarypricingisout(biddingbyCPFor/andCPEstartingfromRMB5andRMB0.
5each).
Chart:AdvertisementCenterforPriorityDisplayonFollower'sPanelSource:Weibo.
comSINAWeiboEnterpriseUserActivityUpdateJLWarrenCapitalwww.
jlwarrencapital.
com(001)646-398-9973Feb13,2013JLWarrenCapitalPage7SuggestedPost:SinadidatestonSuggestedPostsinmid-January2013.
TheformisverysimilartoFacebook'swhereinitinsertsrelatedadvertisementsintothereadingpanel.
ItisfurtherenhancedbytheExpandedBlogfeaturetodisplaynotonlyashortformof140charactersbutalsothevideo,pictureandlinks.
Chart:WeiboSuggestedPostandFacebookSuggestedPostSource:Weibo.
comChart:ExpandedBlogSource:Weibo.
comSINAWeiboEnterpriseUserActivityUpdateJLWarrenCapitalwww.
jlwarrencapital.
com(001)646-398-9973Feb13,2013JLWarrenCapitalPage8SuggestedLocation:Inthepastcoupleofweeks,Sinaisalsotestinglocation-basedsuggestedposts.
ItiscurrentlytoblendaWeiboinyourscreenbasedonyourgeographicinformationandyourfriends'check-inaction,whichdisplayswhenyourfriendhasvisitedarestaurantoraplacenearbyyourcurrentlocation.
SearchResultRecommendation:Weibostartedtorecommenditsowncontentbasedonsearchquery.
Webelieveitwillbeopentoenterpriseusersinthefuture.
Chart:WeiboSuggestedLocationPostChart:RecommendedsearchresultSource:Weibo.
com,WeiboAndroidAppFixedBannerforBrands,MobiletoCatchUpThefixedbanneradvertisingclientofWeibohasabigoverlapwiththesina.
com.
cnportal.
Theportal,sina.
com.
cn,rankednumber4inChinaand16globallybyAlexa,iscurrentlymaking$400mnayear(Weibo.
comrankedsixthinChina).
WehavebeencountingthebannersonPC,AndroidphoneandiPhoneforawholeweekandfoundWeiboalreadypenetratedalotglobaltopbrands,includingCoke,Philips,Adidas,EsteeLauder,LouisVuitton,Mercedes,JonnyWalker,Samsungaswellastoplocalbrands(Appendix1:WeiboBannersAds,thelastweekofJanuary2013).
SINAWeiboEnterpriseUserActivityUpdateJLWarrenCapitalwww.
jlwarrencapital.
com(001)646-398-9973Feb13,2013JLWarrenCapitalPage9Wefurtherdidascreenofthetop500globalbrandstofindthat219ofthetop500brandsopenedWeibowith334Kfans/followerseach.
(Appendix2:TopBrandswithWeiboAccounts)Inarecentconferencecall,Sinasaidthat68%ofWeibouserslogontoWeibowithamobilehandset(47%logontoWeibowithaPC).
FifteenpercentofuserslogontoWeibowithbothaPCandamobile.
ThemobileisalreadytheprimaryscreenforWeibousers.
However,whenwelookintocurrentadvertisementratesforWeibobusiness,wefoundthatmobileadvertisementsaremuchunder-monetized.
Forexample,WeiboPCadvertisementlistsasRMB20-40perCPM(dependingonlocationofthebanner)whilethetopbanneradvertisementontheandroidappchargesonlyRMB8perCPMandtheiPhoneappchargesonly12perCPM.
Duringouradvertisementcounts,wealsofoundfewerbannersonitsapps.
ThisfindingisinlinewiththefactthatglobaladvertisershavenotfoundsufficienttechnologytodoadvertisingonmobileversusonaPC.
WethinkwearestartingtoseeabiggergapbetweenmobiletimespentversusadvertisementbudgetinChina.
Itisouropinionthatthisgapwillbenarrowedovertime.
Chart:MajorBannerRateCardTopBanner(PC):RMB40/CPMActivityBanner(PC):RMB25/CPMSINAWeiboEnterpriseUserActivityUpdateJLWarrenCapitalwww.
jlwarrencapital.
com(001)646-398-9973Feb13,2013JLWarrenCapitalPage10LoginBanner(PC):RMB35/CPMTopBannerforAndroidApp:RMB8/CPMTopBannerforAppleApp:RMB10/CPMSource:SinaRateCard,November–December2012Rooteddifferently–DiversifiedMonetizationforChina'sUserEventoday,investorsaremakingthecomparisonbetweenWeiboandTwitterbecauseofthe140-characterlimitanditsappealtothepublic.
However,thereisonefundamentaldifference,whichisthat140Chinesecharacterscontainsignificantlymoreinformationcontentthan140Englishcharacters.
TheinformationentropyofChinesecharactersis11.
3whiletheinformationentropyofEnglishcharactersis4.
7.
WiththeSINAWeiboEnterpriseUserActivityUpdateJLWarrenCapitalwww.
jlwarrencapital.
com(001)646-398-9973Feb13,2013JLWarrenCapitalPage11expandedblogfeature,theinformationoneWeibopostcancontainfarmorethanoneTwitter.
Chinahasauniqueculture,averageincomelevel,internetdevelopment,andonlinespendingbehavior.
ThemonetizationpaththatSinaiscurrentlyundertakinghasneverbeenpracticedinChina.
Sinaistryingtomonetizeinitsownway.
Weibo'smonetizationisatitsearlystage,comparedwithFacebookandTwitter.
Morenotably,Weibo'scurrent$20mnquarterlyrevenuecomesmainlyfromfixedbanners,whileFacebook'sandTwitter'srevenuecomesmostlyfromsocial-basedads.
SinceWeibo'smonetizationjuststarted7monthsago,itisfarlessthaneventhecombinedrevenuesofFacebookandTwitter.
Table:AdvRevenue,perUserRevenueofWeibo,FacebookandTwitterSource:SinaQ32012result,GoldpebbleWeiboMAUestimate,FacebookQ42012result,TwitterAnnouncementWeareseeingmanymorerevenueformsforSinaWeibothanTwitter.
Besidesbanneradvertising,social-basedpriority/suggestedposts,andthepayinguserscheme,weareseeingthatWeiboisgeneratingrevenuefromwebgames,openplatformapps,Weiboappstore,andfulfilledsalestransaction.
WebGame:WeibolauncheditswebgameplatformonJuly18,2011.
Itstartedfreefordevelopersandnowchargesa30%cutfromrevenuegenerated.
Currently,thereareabout229webgamesrunningonWeibo,32ofwhichgotmorethan500,000registeredusers(numberofWeibouserswhoplayedthatgame).
WeibouserscanplayandpayforthegamesdirectlywiththeirWeiboaccountswithoutotherregistration.
WeiboFacebookTwitterMAU100mn1,000mn200mnQuarterlyAdvRevenue($)20mn1,330mn100mnPerMAUpermonthrevenue($)0.
0670.
4430.
333SINAWeiboEnterpriseUserActivityUpdateJLWarrenCapitalwww.
jlwarrencapital.
com(001)646-398-9973Feb13,2013JLWarrenCapitalPage12Table:WeiboWebGameCountSource:SinaWeibo,GoldpebbleResearchThirdpartyplatform:Weiboalsomaintainsathirdpartyappplatformthatcurrentlyhosts15,697*Weiboapps.
Thoseappsareassimpleasaccount-linkfunctionstothethirdpartyapplications(onweb,mobileorPC)orascomplicatedasafullsetofsoftware.
SomeofthoseWeiboappsarestartingtochargetheirusersandthus,Weibomaychargethosedevelopersforprofitsharing.
However,thisappplatformisjusttoshowthatWeiboistryingsomeothermonetization;itisnotasprofitableasthosewebgames.
Table:WeiboAppCountSource:SinaWeibo,GoldpebbleResearchAppStorewithinWeiboApp:Justseveralweeksago,WeibointegratedanappstoreinitsAndroidapptorecommendappstoitsuserbytraditionalcategoriesandfeaturedtopics.
Itiscurrentlychargingappdevelopersforrecommendations.
No.
ofGameswithUser>1mn>100k,10mn>1mn,100k,<1mn<100kTotalCasual10342456,1516,440Life111383,2773,327Social11461422,8913,090News4526942977Tool1261051,7311,863Total2712255614,99215,697SINAWeiboEnterpriseUserActivityUpdateJLWarrenCapitalwww.
jlwarrencapital.
com(001)646-398-9973Feb13,2013JLWarrenCapitalPage13Chart:WeiboAppStoreinWeiboAppSource:SinaWeiboFulfillSalesTransaction:Weibohasbeentryingtofulfillthemerchandisetransactionssothatthesocialinteractionbetweenbrandowneranditsfollowers/fanscanfinallyleadtosales,withinthesameplatform.
ThroughWeibo,Xiaomihassold50,000handsetsjustinminutesinDecember2012andMercedessold666smartcarsjustinhoursinJanuary2013.
Thosetransactions,includingthepayment,areallfulfilledbytheWeiboplatform.
Chart:SmartCarWeiboPageSource:SinaWeiboSINAWeiboEnterpriseUserActivityUpdateJLWarrenCapitalwww.
jlwarrencapital.
com(001)646-398-9973Feb13,2013JLWarrenCapitalPage14CoopwithAlibabaorBaidu,thegatetoimmediateSMErevenueSinceNovember,therehavebeenreportsthatAlibabaand/orBaiduareacquiringpartofWeibo.
AccordingtoaninterviewwithTongShihao,apartneratQimingVC,AlibabaandBaiduarebothspeakingwithSinaaboutbuyingapartofWeibo.
WeunderstandthatitmakesgreatsenseforWeibotocooperatewithTaobaoThroughTrainorwithBaidu'sP4Pbusiness.
Thiscanbeatriggerforvaluationrealizationinthemarket.
Sina'scurrentadvertisersarebigbrandownerswhocanaffordmillionsofdollarsinadvertisingbudgetperyear(mostlyforbranding),whilebringinginmorerevenuedependsonsocial-basedadvertisementfromSMEs.
BothBaiduandTaobaohaveexpertiseindealingwiththoseSMEadvertisers.
Baidutriedbrowser,Chineseinput,voicesearch,video,travel,musicplayer,andmapwithapps,buthasneverdevelopedahitmobileandWeibocanbeitsstrategictrafficchannelformobile.
Baiduhad390,000activeonlinemarketingcustomersin3Q12andthequarterlyrevenueforeachactivecustomerwasonlyRMB16,000.
Sinagot354kenterpriseaccountsonitsWeiboandmostofthemareSMEs.
ThecooperationbetweenSinaandBaiducanbeverycomplimentarytobothparties,especiallygiventhatBaidumade$995mnin3Q12andWeiboonlymade$20mn,whileSina'stotalrevenuewas$152mnfor3Q12.
ThiscanbeanimmediaterevenuemodelforcurrententerpriseaccountsonSina.
Taobao,althoughac2candb2cplatform,acquiresitsrevenuemainlyfromP4PTaobaoThroughTrain.
In2012,itsGMVreachedRMB1trnandweguesseditsadvertisingrevenueataround$3bn,justnexttoBaiduinChina'sonlineadvertisingspace.
TheusersforTaobaoaremostlyyoungpeoplewhileSinaWeibousersaremostlymiddleclasswhitecollars.
TherearemanyunofficialadvertisingactivitiesonWeibothatalreadyleadWeibo'straffictoshoponTaobao.
TaobaoisthebestatfulfillingitsplatformandtheAlipaysystem.
TaobaoisquitemeaningfultoWeibobusinessasitcandirectlyenableWeibotogeneratesalesforbigclientsinsomecategories,suchasgroupbuyingsitesaswellasSMEs.
SINAWeiboEnterpriseUserActivityUpdateJLWarrenCapitalwww.
jlwarrencapital.
com(001)646-398-9973Feb13,2013JLWarrenCapitalPage15Disclaimer:ThisisNOTanofferorasolicitationofoffertobuyorsellanysecurity,includingbutnotlimitedtothesecurityinvolvedherein.
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jlwarrencapital.
com(001)646-398-9973Feb13,2013JLWarrenCapitalPage1Summary:UsingGoldpebbleWeiboActivityMonitoringSystem(GPWAMS),weseeWeibouseractivitieshavebeengrowingoverthepastmonths.
Weibopayingenterpriseusershassurgedwhiledaily/monthlybloggingusergrowthhasdecelerated.
TotalWeibousers,dailybloggingusersandmonthlybloggingusersreachedanewhighof363mn*,14.
7mn*and50.
9mn*respectivelyinDecember2012.
Thenumberofenterpriseusersacceleratedto354k*from328k*inNovember.
Thenumberofpayingusersmorethandoubledfrom308k*inNovemberto691k*inDecember.
Thebearviewisthatthefast-growingTencent(HKEX:0700)WechatapphastakenamajorityusersharefromWeibo.
Wedisagreeafterlookingintothereasonsbehindtherecentpayingusersurge.
Sixty-eightpercentofWeibouserslogontoWeibowithamobilehandsetnow.
WiththeCEOinchargeofWeibobusinessandthewholecompanyfocusingonmobiledeviceusage,2013willbethestartoftheplatform'smonetization.
Atthesametime,Sinahasspeduptestingitsnewformsofsocial-basedadvertising(midJan,2013),releasedits'Like'buttonfeaturetothird-partywebsitesandapps(earlyJan,2013),addedanappstoreonitsWeiboapp(midJan,2013),harshlycrackeddownontheunofficialadvertisementactivities(midJan,2013),andactsasasalesplatformforSmartcarsandXiaomihandsets.
WeestimatedtherevenuefromWeibo'sbanneradsforbrandingclientswillbelimitedbyitsdisplayspaceandcappedat$371mn*peryearbasedoncurrentuseractivitiesandratecard.
Sinaneedstodevelopasocial-basedadvertisingsystemtoincreasetherevenuefromSMEswithoutcompromisinguserexperience.
WethinkSinaisreadytoreleaseprioritydisplayonfollowers'pagesandistestingsuggestedposts,locations,andsearchresultrecommendations.
ThesefeaturesarebasedonaverysimilartechnologyframeworkthatFacebook(NASDAQ:FB)hasimplemented.
ThefixedbanneradvertisingclientofWeibooverlapswiththesina.
com.
cnportal.
WehavebeencountingWeibo'sadvertisingbannersonPC,AndroidphoneandiPhoneforthepastseveralweeks.
WefoundWeiboalreadypenetratedover60topglobalbrandsSINAWeiboEnterpriseUserActivityUpdateJLWarrenCapitalwww.
jlwarrencapital.
com(001)646-398-9973Feb13,2013JLWarrenCapitalPage2aswellastoplocalbrands.
Wefurtherdidascreenoftopglobal500brandsto219*andgotWeiboenterpriseaccountswithanaverageof334k*fans/followers.
Chinahasitsuniqueculture,internetdevelopment,consumptionpattern,andonlinespendingbehavior.
ThemonetizationpathSinaisfollowingisunprecedentedinChina.
Weiboisdoingmorethanadvertising.
Welookedintoitsmonetizationofits229*webgames,15,697*WeiboappsandAndroidappstoreinsidetheWeiboapp,andrecentlyfulfilledsalestransactions.
AstrategicpartnershipwithcurrentP4PsearchproviderslikeBaidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)(searchlinks)orAlibaba(TaobaoThroughTrain)maybringmutualbenefitstobothparties.
Baiduisthelargestonlineadvertisingplatformwithmorethan$1billioninquarterlyrevenueandTaobaoThroughTrainisearningaround$700million*inquarterlyrevenue.
Sina,with$100millionearnedfromfixedbanneradsfromtheportaland$20millionfromfixedbanneradsonWeibo,mayinstantlymonetizeitstrafficwhileBaiduand/orAlibabacannotonlygetrevenuebutaccessthetrafficofoneofthebestmobileappsinChina.
Alibaba'sTaobaoandSina'sWeiboarealreadyreferringtwo-waytrafficleadstooneanother,thuscreatingmoresynergybetweenthetwo.
IthasbeenconfirmedbyseveralmediareportsthatAlibabaandBaiduarebothintalkswithSinaaboutbuyingapartofWeibo.
SINAWeiboEnterpriseUserActivityUpdateJLWarrenCapitalwww.
jlwarrencapital.
com(001)646-398-9973Feb13,2013JLWarrenCapitalPage3WeiboUserActivitiesPlateauing,ataVeryHighLevelGoldpebbledevelopedGoldpebbleWeiboActivityMonitoringSystem(GPWAMS)inSeptember2012andisabletorandomlysamplemillionsofWeibouserspermonth.
Withthissystem,wedidaresearchin2H12aboutWeibo'susersandfoundthemajorityofWeibo'sregisteredusersaredormant(or'zombieusers').
Atthesametime,Wechatgrewitsnumberofuserssignificantlyto300mn,withlessthanhalfofthetimeasWeibo.
InvestorsareinterestedintryingWechat,andthusimageWeibo'sactivitiesaredeclining.
Itisatypicalbiasofownexperience.
Chart:SinaRegisteredUserandTencentWeiboRegisteredUserSource:Sina,TencentOurGPWAMSdatashow,however,Weibouseractivitiesarestillgrowing,thoughataslowerpace.
Butthenumberofpayingusersandenterpriseusersisstillincreasingataveryhighspeedmonthovermonth.
Wesawtotalusers,dailybloggingusersandmonthlybloggingusersreachednewhighto363mn,14.
7mnand50.
9mnrespectivelyinDecember2012.
Thenumberofenterpriseusersacceleratedto354k.
Thenumberofpayingusersmorethandoubledfrom308kto691kinDecember.
SINAWeiboEnterpriseUserActivityUpdateJLWarrenCapitalwww.
jlwarrencapital.
com(001)646-398-9973Feb13,2013JLWarrenCapitalPage4Table:UserActivitiesforOcttoDec,2012Source:GPWMS,www.
goldpebble.
comThepayingWeibousersgot24features.
Mostofthefeaturesare'ornaments,'buttherearecertainfeatureswithgoodutilizations.
Forexample,SinalaunchedmorespaceofWeidiskforpayinguserssincemid-September2012.
Thepayingusercanget100GBto1TBofcloudstorageforfree.
Withthe10RMBpermonthWeibopayinguserfee,theWeibopayinguser'scostforcloudstorageismerelyafractionofDropbox's$19.
99-$49.
99permonthfor100-500GBstorage.
Chart:WeiboPayingUserPrivilege1.
IdentityPrivilege:Exclusivesymbol,Exclusivetheme,Exclusivemedal,Exclusivenumberaccount,Exclusivecustomerservice2.
FeaturePrivilege:Blockfunction,Priorityweibo,Increasetheuplimitofgroupfunction,Acceleratinggrowthlevel,Recommend,User-definedcoverpage,Priorityplacedisplayedatfriends,HugestoragespaceinWeidisk,Increasetheuplimitoffollow,Followsecretly3.
MobilePrivilege:Voiceweibo,Specialfollowfunctionwithsms,Birthdayremind,Exclusivethemeonclientsoftware4.
SaftyPrivilege:Smssecurityremind,Smspasswordreset5.
GamePrivilege:Exclusivegamegift,GameprivilegecardSource:Weibo.
comOrganizationRestructureBoostWeiboMonetizationSINAWeiboEnterpriseUserActivityUpdateJLWarrenCapitalwww.
jlwarrencapital.
com(001)646-398-9973Feb13,2013JLWarrenCapitalPage5Attheendof2012,CharlesCao,CEOofSina,announcedorganizationrestructureofSina.
Inanopenlettertohiscolleagues,heillustratedthestrategyof'MobileFirst'in2013forSina.
Thecompanywillbedividedintotwobusinessunits.
CharlesCaoistheheadofWeibobusiness,andtheCOO,HongDu,istheheadofitsportalbusiness.
TheWeiboappisoneofthemostpopularapp'sonmobilehandsetsinChina.
AccordingtoSina,Weibohas42mndailyactiveusers,andthedailyaverageusageforanactiveuseronWeiboisaround1hour.
Inarecentconferencecall,Sinasaidthat68%ofWeibouserslogtoWeibowithamobilehandset(47%logontoWeibowithaPC).
Withthewholecompanyfocusingongoingmobile,2013willseesomeofWeibo'smilestonedevelopments.
Atthesametime,Sinahasspeduptestingitsnewformsofsocial-basedadvertising(midJan,2013),releasedits'Like'buttonfeaturetothird-partywebsitesandapps(earlyJan,2013),addedanappstoreonitsWeiboapp(midJan,2013),harshlycrackeddownontheunofficialadvertisementactivities(midJan,2013),andactsasasalesplatformforSmartcarsandXiaomihandsets.
SocialBasedMonetizationAccelerating,targetingSMEsWeibostarteditsmonetizationinQ22012andrecorded$10mninadvertisingrevenueforQ22012and$20mninadvertisingrevenueforQ32012.
CurrentWeibomonetizationismainlyfromfixedbanneradvertising.
Theclientsareallbrandownerswhoadvertiseforthepurposeofbranding.
AlthoughWeiboadvertisementrevenueisstillgrowingveryfast,weareinevitablyseeingthebottleneckofthelimitedfixed/banneradvertisementinventory.
Giventhatthereare42mndailyactiveusers,andthateachuserwillseeroughlysixbannerseveryday,therewillbe252mnviewsperday.
Togetherwithanaverageof25RMBperCPM,dailyrevenuecanbetoppedatRMB6.
3mnforWeibo(or$371mnperyear).
ThisiswhySinamustdevelopotherformsofadvertisement,including,apprecommendations,enterpriseaccountrecommendations,webgameoperations,andpayinguserfeatures.
WeareseeingthatSinahasspentaloteffortondevelopingasocial-basedadvertisementsystemsoastoexpanditsrevenuepotential.
Atthesametime,social-basedadvertisementshavelessnegativeinfluenceontheuserexperience.
AlgorithmSortStartingonJune18,2012,WeiboenableduserstoreadtheWeibointerfaceinanalgorithm-sortedorderratherthanchronologicalorder.
ThisisaverysimilarfunctiontothatwhichFacebookintroducedinNovember2011.
Wethinkitisoneofthefoundationfunctionstoplugonthesocial-basedadvertisement.
SINAWeiboEnterpriseUserActivityUpdateJLWarrenCapitalwww.
jlwarrencapital.
com(001)646-398-9973Feb13,2013JLWarrenCapitalPage6Weibo/Facebookcaninsertsocial-basedadsintousers'newsfeedpanelsaccordingtotheusers'relationships,bloggingandotherprofiles.
Chart:IntelligenceSortFeatureofWeiboandFacebook:Source:WeiboandFacebookPriorityDisplayonFollower'sPanel:Thisfeatureenablesenterpriseuserstopayforeachdisplayonthetopoftheirfollower'spage.
Itwastestedbyabigbannerclientduringthesummerof2012,andSinaisgoingtoopenthisfeaturetoallits340k*enterpriseaccounts.
Thisisaverygoodmonetizationideathathurtsveryfewoftheusers;forinstance,ifauser"follows"BMWonWeibo,heorshewillseeBMW'scurrentpromotionontopofitspage.
Weareseeingtheinfrastructureforenterpriseusersarepartiallyready,andthepreliminarypricingisout(biddingbyCPFor/andCPEstartingfromRMB5andRMB0.
5each).
Chart:AdvertisementCenterforPriorityDisplayonFollower'sPanelSource:Weibo.
comSINAWeiboEnterpriseUserActivityUpdateJLWarrenCapitalwww.
jlwarrencapital.
com(001)646-398-9973Feb13,2013JLWarrenCapitalPage7SuggestedPost:SinadidatestonSuggestedPostsinmid-January2013.
TheformisverysimilartoFacebook'swhereinitinsertsrelatedadvertisementsintothereadingpanel.
ItisfurtherenhancedbytheExpandedBlogfeaturetodisplaynotonlyashortformof140charactersbutalsothevideo,pictureandlinks.
Chart:WeiboSuggestedPostandFacebookSuggestedPostSource:Weibo.
comChart:ExpandedBlogSource:Weibo.
comSINAWeiboEnterpriseUserActivityUpdateJLWarrenCapitalwww.
jlwarrencapital.
com(001)646-398-9973Feb13,2013JLWarrenCapitalPage8SuggestedLocation:Inthepastcoupleofweeks,Sinaisalsotestinglocation-basedsuggestedposts.
ItiscurrentlytoblendaWeiboinyourscreenbasedonyourgeographicinformationandyourfriends'check-inaction,whichdisplayswhenyourfriendhasvisitedarestaurantoraplacenearbyyourcurrentlocation.
SearchResultRecommendation:Weibostartedtorecommenditsowncontentbasedonsearchquery.
Webelieveitwillbeopentoenterpriseusersinthefuture.
Chart:WeiboSuggestedLocationPostChart:RecommendedsearchresultSource:Weibo.
com,WeiboAndroidAppFixedBannerforBrands,MobiletoCatchUpThefixedbanneradvertisingclientofWeibohasabigoverlapwiththesina.
com.
cnportal.
Theportal,sina.
com.
cn,rankednumber4inChinaand16globallybyAlexa,iscurrentlymaking$400mnayear(Weibo.
comrankedsixthinChina).
WehavebeencountingthebannersonPC,AndroidphoneandiPhoneforawholeweekandfoundWeiboalreadypenetratedalotglobaltopbrands,includingCoke,Philips,Adidas,EsteeLauder,LouisVuitton,Mercedes,JonnyWalker,Samsungaswellastoplocalbrands(Appendix1:WeiboBannersAds,thelastweekofJanuary2013).
SINAWeiboEnterpriseUserActivityUpdateJLWarrenCapitalwww.
jlwarrencapital.
com(001)646-398-9973Feb13,2013JLWarrenCapitalPage9Wefurtherdidascreenofthetop500globalbrandstofindthat219ofthetop500brandsopenedWeibowith334Kfans/followerseach.
(Appendix2:TopBrandswithWeiboAccounts)Inarecentconferencecall,Sinasaidthat68%ofWeibouserslogontoWeibowithamobilehandset(47%logontoWeibowithaPC).
FifteenpercentofuserslogontoWeibowithbothaPCandamobile.
ThemobileisalreadytheprimaryscreenforWeibousers.
However,whenwelookintocurrentadvertisementratesforWeibobusiness,wefoundthatmobileadvertisementsaremuchunder-monetized.
Forexample,WeiboPCadvertisementlistsasRMB20-40perCPM(dependingonlocationofthebanner)whilethetopbanneradvertisementontheandroidappchargesonlyRMB8perCPMandtheiPhoneappchargesonly12perCPM.
Duringouradvertisementcounts,wealsofoundfewerbannersonitsapps.
ThisfindingisinlinewiththefactthatglobaladvertisershavenotfoundsufficienttechnologytodoadvertisingonmobileversusonaPC.
WethinkwearestartingtoseeabiggergapbetweenmobiletimespentversusadvertisementbudgetinChina.
Itisouropinionthatthisgapwillbenarrowedovertime.
Chart:MajorBannerRateCardTopBanner(PC):RMB40/CPMActivityBanner(PC):RMB25/CPMSINAWeiboEnterpriseUserActivityUpdateJLWarrenCapitalwww.
jlwarrencapital.
com(001)646-398-9973Feb13,2013JLWarrenCapitalPage10LoginBanner(PC):RMB35/CPMTopBannerforAndroidApp:RMB8/CPMTopBannerforAppleApp:RMB10/CPMSource:SinaRateCard,November–December2012Rooteddifferently–DiversifiedMonetizationforChina'sUserEventoday,investorsaremakingthecomparisonbetweenWeiboandTwitterbecauseofthe140-characterlimitanditsappealtothepublic.
However,thereisonefundamentaldifference,whichisthat140Chinesecharacterscontainsignificantlymoreinformationcontentthan140Englishcharacters.
TheinformationentropyofChinesecharactersis11.
3whiletheinformationentropyofEnglishcharactersis4.
7.
WiththeSINAWeiboEnterpriseUserActivityUpdateJLWarrenCapitalwww.
jlwarrencapital.
com(001)646-398-9973Feb13,2013JLWarrenCapitalPage11expandedblogfeature,theinformationoneWeibopostcancontainfarmorethanoneTwitter.
Chinahasauniqueculture,averageincomelevel,internetdevelopment,andonlinespendingbehavior.
ThemonetizationpaththatSinaiscurrentlyundertakinghasneverbeenpracticedinChina.
Sinaistryingtomonetizeinitsownway.
Weibo'smonetizationisatitsearlystage,comparedwithFacebookandTwitter.
Morenotably,Weibo'scurrent$20mnquarterlyrevenuecomesmainlyfromfixedbanners,whileFacebook'sandTwitter'srevenuecomesmostlyfromsocial-basedads.
SinceWeibo'smonetizationjuststarted7monthsago,itisfarlessthaneventhecombinedrevenuesofFacebookandTwitter.
Table:AdvRevenue,perUserRevenueofWeibo,FacebookandTwitterSource:SinaQ32012result,GoldpebbleWeiboMAUestimate,FacebookQ42012result,TwitterAnnouncementWeareseeingmanymorerevenueformsforSinaWeibothanTwitter.
Besidesbanneradvertising,social-basedpriority/suggestedposts,andthepayinguserscheme,weareseeingthatWeiboisgeneratingrevenuefromwebgames,openplatformapps,Weiboappstore,andfulfilledsalestransaction.
WebGame:WeibolauncheditswebgameplatformonJuly18,2011.
Itstartedfreefordevelopersandnowchargesa30%cutfromrevenuegenerated.
Currently,thereareabout229webgamesrunningonWeibo,32ofwhichgotmorethan500,000registeredusers(numberofWeibouserswhoplayedthatgame).
WeibouserscanplayandpayforthegamesdirectlywiththeirWeiboaccountswithoutotherregistration.
WeiboFacebookTwitterMAU100mn1,000mn200mnQuarterlyAdvRevenue($)20mn1,330mn100mnPerMAUpermonthrevenue($)0.
0670.
4430.
333SINAWeiboEnterpriseUserActivityUpdateJLWarrenCapitalwww.
jlwarrencapital.
com(001)646-398-9973Feb13,2013JLWarrenCapitalPage12Table:WeiboWebGameCountSource:SinaWeibo,GoldpebbleResearchThirdpartyplatform:Weiboalsomaintainsathirdpartyappplatformthatcurrentlyhosts15,697*Weiboapps.
Thoseappsareassimpleasaccount-linkfunctionstothethirdpartyapplications(onweb,mobileorPC)orascomplicatedasafullsetofsoftware.
SomeofthoseWeiboappsarestartingtochargetheirusersandthus,Weibomaychargethosedevelopersforprofitsharing.
However,thisappplatformisjusttoshowthatWeiboistryingsomeothermonetization;itisnotasprofitableasthosewebgames.
Table:WeiboAppCountSource:SinaWeibo,GoldpebbleResearchAppStorewithinWeiboApp:Justseveralweeksago,WeibointegratedanappstoreinitsAndroidapptorecommendappstoitsuserbytraditionalcategoriesandfeaturedtopics.
Itiscurrentlychargingappdevelopersforrecommendations.
No.
ofGameswithUser>1mn>100k,10mn>1mn,100k,<1mn<100kTotalCasual10342456,1516,440Life111383,2773,327Social11461422,8913,090News4526942977Tool1261051,7311,863Total2712255614,99215,697SINAWeiboEnterpriseUserActivityUpdateJLWarrenCapitalwww.
jlwarrencapital.
com(001)646-398-9973Feb13,2013JLWarrenCapitalPage13Chart:WeiboAppStoreinWeiboAppSource:SinaWeiboFulfillSalesTransaction:Weibohasbeentryingtofulfillthemerchandisetransactionssothatthesocialinteractionbetweenbrandowneranditsfollowers/fanscanfinallyleadtosales,withinthesameplatform.
ThroughWeibo,Xiaomihassold50,000handsetsjustinminutesinDecember2012andMercedessold666smartcarsjustinhoursinJanuary2013.
Thosetransactions,includingthepayment,areallfulfilledbytheWeiboplatform.
Chart:SmartCarWeiboPageSource:SinaWeiboSINAWeiboEnterpriseUserActivityUpdateJLWarrenCapitalwww.
jlwarrencapital.
com(001)646-398-9973Feb13,2013JLWarrenCapitalPage14CoopwithAlibabaorBaidu,thegatetoimmediateSMErevenueSinceNovember,therehavebeenreportsthatAlibabaand/orBaiduareacquiringpartofWeibo.
AccordingtoaninterviewwithTongShihao,apartneratQimingVC,AlibabaandBaiduarebothspeakingwithSinaaboutbuyingapartofWeibo.
WeunderstandthatitmakesgreatsenseforWeibotocooperatewithTaobaoThroughTrainorwithBaidu'sP4Pbusiness.
Thiscanbeatriggerforvaluationrealizationinthemarket.
Sina'scurrentadvertisersarebigbrandownerswhocanaffordmillionsofdollarsinadvertisingbudgetperyear(mostlyforbranding),whilebringinginmorerevenuedependsonsocial-basedadvertisementfromSMEs.
BothBaiduandTaobaohaveexpertiseindealingwiththoseSMEadvertisers.
Baidutriedbrowser,Chineseinput,voicesearch,video,travel,musicplayer,andmapwithapps,buthasneverdevelopedahitmobileandWeibocanbeitsstrategictrafficchannelformobile.
Baiduhad390,000activeonlinemarketingcustomersin3Q12andthequarterlyrevenueforeachactivecustomerwasonlyRMB16,000.
Sinagot354kenterpriseaccountsonitsWeiboandmostofthemareSMEs.
ThecooperationbetweenSinaandBaiducanbeverycomplimentarytobothparties,especiallygiventhatBaidumade$995mnin3Q12andWeiboonlymade$20mn,whileSina'stotalrevenuewas$152mnfor3Q12.
ThiscanbeanimmediaterevenuemodelforcurrententerpriseaccountsonSina.
Taobao,althoughac2candb2cplatform,acquiresitsrevenuemainlyfromP4PTaobaoThroughTrain.
In2012,itsGMVreachedRMB1trnandweguesseditsadvertisingrevenueataround$3bn,justnexttoBaiduinChina'sonlineadvertisingspace.
TheusersforTaobaoaremostlyyoungpeoplewhileSinaWeibousersaremostlymiddleclasswhitecollars.
TherearemanyunofficialadvertisingactivitiesonWeibothatalreadyleadWeibo'straffictoshoponTaobao.
TaobaoisthebestatfulfillingitsplatformandtheAlipaysystem.
TaobaoisquitemeaningfultoWeibobusinessasitcandirectlyenableWeibotogeneratesalesforbigclientsinsomecategories,suchasgroupbuyingsitesaswellasSMEs.
SINAWeiboEnterpriseUserActivityUpdateJLWarrenCapitalwww.
jlwarrencapital.
com(001)646-398-9973Feb13,2013JLWarrenCapitalPage15Disclaimer:ThisisNOTanofferorasolicitationofoffertobuyorsellanysecurity,includingbutnotlimitedtothesecurityinvolvedherein.
Norshouldanysecuritybeofferedorsoldtoanypersonorlegalpartyinanyjurisdictioninwhichsuchofferand/orsalewouldbeunlawfulunderthelawsofsuchjurisdiction.
JLWarrenCapitalLLC("JLWarren")isNOTregisteredasaninvestmentorsecurityortradingadvisor.
Theopinionsand/orcommentsinthisreportand/orJLWarren'sresearcharepurelythepersonalviewofJLWarrenandshallbynomeansbetaken,regarded,perceivedorinterpretedinanywayasinvestor,securityortradingadviceorrecommendationorlegaland/ortaxopinions.
Readersofthisreportand/orJLWarren'sresearcharerecommendedtodotheirindependentresearchandduediligencebeforemakinganyinvestmentortradingdecisionsandunderstandthatJLWarrenwillnotandshallnotbeliableinanywayforreaders'investmentortradingdecisionsoruseofsuchreportand/orresearch.
Readersofthisreportand/orJLWarren'sresearchshouldassumethatasofthepublicationdateofanyreportorsearchand/oranypriororsubsequenttime,JLWarren,potentiallytogetherwithitsaffiliates,members,officers,employees,clientsand/orinvestors,was,isand/orwillbeinatradingposition(long,shortorneutral),whichmaynotnecessarilybeconsistentwiththeopinionsherein,inconnectionwithanysecurity,includingbutnotlimitedtothesecuritiesinvolvedherein,andmayrealizegainsinsuchtransactions.
Again,inanycase,therespectiveparties'gainsorlossesarearesultoftheirindependentdecisionsandJLWarrenshallnotbeliableforanyrelianceand/oruseofthisreportanditsresearch.
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Tothebestofourcapacityandbelief,theinformationcontainedinJLWarren'sreportand/orresearchisaccurateandreliable.
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