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2011年1月25日全球商品市场观察证券研究报告金价波动之际周期型大宗商品加入上涨行列2009年夏天以来周期型商品表现首次超过黄金虽然11月底以来大宗商品整体表现优异,但原油和铜等周期型商品的走势值得关注,它们在金价走软之际加入了农产品的上涨行列.
这是2009年夏天以来黄金首次未能连续引领商品上涨,凸显出近几个月全球金融市场格局随美国经济稳步复苏而显著改变.
这种变化正是我们对2011年的基本预测,我们预计周期型商品即将进入牛市,令始于2010年的农产品牛市行情扩大.
原油、铜、棉花/大豆和铂最有希望从新周期中受益我们此前一直强调,进入新周期后供应仍然紧张的主要市场包括原油、铜、棉花/大豆和铂,因为对投资的政治限制使得正常的投资周期无法创造出新的产能.
此外,这些商品正是中国和印度所极度短缺的主要商品,这只会令其稀缺溢价扩大.
我们预计未来12个月回报为18.
6%总的来说,虽然12月份的价格飙升后我们对大宗商品的短期配置建议为标配,但对6个月和12个月的配置建议仍为高配;同时我们将未来12个月标普GSCIEnhancedTotalReturn指数的回报率预测上调至18.
6%,因为许多大宗商品的现货升水都早于预期.
推动回报率上升的不仅有原油和铜等我们对其中期前景持乐观看法的周期型大宗商品,而且还有农畜产品.
杰夫·可瑞+44(20)7774-6112jeffrey.
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greely@gs.
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Nathan(212)357-7504allison.
nathan@gs.
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因此,投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突,不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素.
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高盛集团高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究2011年1月25日全球高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究2HedgingandtradingrecommendationsPetroleumHedgingrecommendationsConsumers:Globalinventoriesdrewsubstantiallyin2H2010,andweexpectUSinventoriestocontinuetodrawtomorenormallevelsin2011.
Withthesupply-demandbalanceinaseasonallyadjusteddeficitandrobustworldeconomicgrowthexpectedin2011and2012,weexpectOPECsparecapacitywillneedtoreturntothemarketin2011.
AsOPECsparecapacityisdrawndown,weexpectastructuralbullmarkettoreturntotheoilmarket,withsubstantiallyhigherprices.
Consequently,webelievethatforwardpricelevelsoffergoodhedgingopportunitiesforconsumersincalendar2011/2012,despitetherecentrally.
Refiners:Refiningmarginshaverecentlyshowedcounter-seasonalstrengthafteraperiodofweaknessfollowingthesharpMay2010sell-off.
However,weexpectrefiningmarginstoremainunderpressureowingtothelargeincreaseinrefiningcapacityinAsia.
Aslight-heavyspreadshavealreadywidened,weexpectcomplexoilrefinerstoreturnfrommaintenanceandincreaseproduction,whichwouldputpressureonsimplerefiningmarginsrelativetoWTIprices.
Asaresult,wewouldviewanyrenewedriseinlong-datedrefinerymarginsin2011asasellingopportunityforrefineryhedgers.
For2011andbeyond,webelievethatcrudewillbethebottleneckinthesystem,ratherthanrefining;thiswouldsqueezemarginsfromthecrudesidethroughbackwardation,suggestingthatrefinersshouldalsolookforpotentialtime-spreadhedges.
Producers:Whilewecontinuetoexpectcrudeoilpricestomovehigherin2011,limitingtacticalopportunities,therisk-rewardtrade-offsforproducerriskmanagementprogramswilllikelyimproveagainaspricesmovehigheroverthecomingmonths.
TradingrecommendationsLongGasoil:BuyMarch2011EuropeanICEGasoil(currentvalue$818.
50/mt;firstsuggestedat$791.
75/mt;$62.
00/mtgainincludingrolls).
Wecontinuetoexpectimprovingfundamentalstoprovideadditionalsupporttoprices.
NaturalGasHedgingrecommendationsConsumers:WeseelimitedvalueinthecurrentforwardcurveforUSconsumers,asweexpectoversupplytocontinuetobeakeyfeatureofthenaturalgasmarketthisyearandpricestoremainsubduedataround$4.
00/mmBtuthrough2012,despiterecentweather-drivenpricestrength.
Ultimately,webelievethemarketremainsvulnerabletofurtherupsidesurprisestoproduction,asmostoffsettingshiftsonthedemandsidehaveplayedout.
However,furtheroutonthecurveweseegoodhedgingopportunitiesforUSconsumersasweexpectincrementaldemandtorequireproductionfromplayswithamarginalcostcloserto$6.
00/mmBtu.
Specifically,from2015weexpectincreasingdemandfromelectricitygeneratorsonthebackcoalplantretirements,continuedincreasesinindustrialdemandandpotentialLNGexportstoleadthewaybacktoabalancedmarket.
WeatherhasbeenakeydriveroftherecentUKpricerallyaswell,andweexpectspotpricestoretreatgoinginto2011,buttorecoveragainin2012astheglobalLNGmarketbecomesmorebalanced.
2011年1月25日全球高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究3Producers:WebelievetherearestillopportunitiesforUSproducerstoconsiderhedging2011andespecially2012gas,dependingontheparticularcoststructures,especiallyonthebackoftherecentweather-drivenrally,asweexpectpricestodeclinefurtherbeforebottomingin3Q2011.
WealsoseegoodhedgingopportunitiesforproducersexposedtoEuropeanspotmarketsgivenrecentpricestrength,whichwebelievewillsubsidegoinginto2011,butreturnin2012.
TradingrecommendationsAlthoughwehaveabearishstanceonboththeUSandUKmarkets,wewaitforabetterentrypointforshort-traderecommendationsduetonear-termweatherrisks.
BaseMetalsHedgingrecommendationsConsumers:Webelievemetalspricesarelikelyatthetopofnear-termrangesacrossthecomplex.
Despitetherecentrisksrelatedtothesupplysideforcopper,wemaintainabaselineviewthatapricespikeistooearlyandthattherisk-rewardisbetterforholdingcontractsoroptionsexpiringlaterin2011.
Thereforewerecommendconsumerswithsecureoff-takebepatientwithnear-termprices,butactivelyprotectpricerisklaterin2011.
Wealsoadviseconsumerstostaypatientwithaluminumpricesdespiterisingenergypricesandmorebullishsupply-demandsentiment,andwaitforlowerrangestoprotectagainstaluminumspikesdrivenbyenergypricesorvolatileChineseproducerdevelopments.
Wecontinuetorecommendzincconsumersbepatientfornear-termhedging,butaggressivelylockinlonger-datedhedgeswhenperiodsofhighmacrovolatilitypersistandzincpricesselloff.
Producers:Webelievethecurrentpriceenvironmentlooksparticularlyattractiveforproducerhedgingacrossmetals.
WerecommendaluminumproducerstakethecurrentwindowofopportunityfrompotentialproductiondisruptionsduetoextremeweatherandtemporarycoalshortagesinChinatolockingoodpricesfor2011,aswebelievethetightestperiodsinthealuminummarketsoccurredinlate2010.
Wealsodonotbelievethatnickelorzincpriceswillbreakouthigherfromtoday'slevelsintheneartermandwouldadviseproducerstousetoday'spricestolockinattractivenear-termlevels,particularlyinnickelwhereweseemuchlowerrangesastheyearprogresses.
TradingrecommendationsShortAluminum:SellFebruary2011Aluminum(currentvalueat$2,404/mt;firstsuggestedat$2,462/mt;$58/mtgain)Webelievethataluminumpriceriskisskewedtothedownsidefollowingrecentgains,aswemaintainthatamplesupplywillbeavailableevenwiththestrongdemandlevelsweexpect.
Whiledollarweaknessandhigherenergypriceshavethepotentialtopushmarginalcostsupward,wedonotbelievethiscostinflationpresentsupsideto$2,500/mt.
LongCopper:BuyDecember2011Copper(currentvalueat$9,313/mt;firstsuggestedat$8,024/mt;$1,290/mtgain)Givenourviewofsubstantialupsidepotentialinyear-end2011copperpricesrelativetothecurrentforwardcurve,werecommendalongcopperpositionintheDecember2011contract.
WealsoviewhighOTMcalloptionsasapotentialalternativegiventherelativelyinexpensivevolatilitythatweexpecttomovehigher.
2011年1月25日全球高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究4PreciousMetalsHedgingrecommendationsConsumers:Weexpectgoldpricestocontinuetoclimbin2011astheresumptionofquantitativeeasingshouldkeepUSrealinterestrateslow.
However,withthecurrentroundofQEsettoendinJune2011,andourUSeconomicsteamnowforecastingstrongUSeconomicgrowthin2011and2012,weexpectUSrealinterestratestobegintoriseinto2012,likelycausinggoldpricestopeakin2012.
Consequently,werecommendnear-datedconsumerhedgesingold,butmoresoinPGMswhererecoveringglobalautomobiledemandwilllikelycontinuetoputupwardpressureonauto-catalystdemandandthereforeonplatinumandpalladiumprices.
Producers:Whileweexpectgoldpricestoincreasein2011,ourviewthatdownsideriskswilllikelyincreaseheadinginto2012suggeststhisisagoodtimeforgoldproducerstobeginscaleduphedgingofforwardproduction,particularlyforcalendar2012andbeyond.
TradingrecommendationsLongPlatinum:BuyJanuary2011NYMEXPlatinum(Currentvalueat$1,818.
8/toz;firstsuggestedat$1.
611.
1/toz;$644.
7/tozgainincludingrolls)Wecontinuetoexpectthatlowrealratesandtheeconomicrecoverywilllendfurthersupporttoplatinumprices.
ThistradewasfirstinitiatedinJuly2009(seeourJuly15,2009,CommodityWatch).
LongGold:BuyDecember2011COMEXGold(Currentvalueof$1,349.
6/toz;firstsuggestedat$1,364.
2/toz;$14.
6/tozloss)Weexpectgoldpricestocontinuetoclimbin2011astheresumptionofquantitativeeasingshouldkeepUSrealinterestrateslow.
AgricultureHedgingrecommendationsConsumers:Weexpecttightfundamentalsandtheneedtosecureacreagetopushcorn,soybeanandcottonpriceshigher.
Ourexpectationforfurtherpriceupsideandthebackwardatedfuturescurveofferopportunitiesforconsumerstolayerinupsideprotection.
Producers:Ourexpectationforlowerwheatpricesoverthemediumtermpointstoopportunitiesforproducerstotakeadvantageofthecurrenthigherlevelsandimplementlong-datedhedgeprograms.
TradingrecommendationsLongCorn:BuyMarch2011CBOTCorn(currentvalueat$6.
57/bu;firstsuggestedat$5.
38/bu;$1.
20/bugain)Weforecasthighercornpricesandrecommendholdingexistinglongcornpositionsinanticipationofhigherfutureprices.
LongSoybeans:BuyNovember2011CBOTSoybeans(currentvalueat$13.
48/bu;firstsuggestedat$11.
60/bu;$1.
88/bugain)WerecommendholdinglongNov-11soybeanpositionsasweforecastsoybeanpriceswillneedtomovehighertoensureadequateUSacreage.
2011年1月25日全球高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究5Baskettradingrecommendation:"BacktotheUSSR"–CCCPLongabasketofcrudeoil,copper,cotton/soybeansandplatinum,indexedat100(currentvalueat112.
3;12.
3%gain)Afteradecadeofhighcommodityprices,thekeymarketsthatremainstructurallysupply-constrainedarecrudeoil,copper,cotton/soybeansandplatinum.
Owingtothenarrowgeographicdistributionofsupplyinthesemarkets,theycontinuetofacesignificantpoliticalandgeologicalconstraintsonthefreeflowofcapital,laborandtechnology,whichinturnconstrainssupplygrowthregardlessofpriceorexpectedreturn.
Itisnocoincidencethatthesesupply-constrainedcommoditymarketsarealsothesamecommoditymarketsthatChinaisextremelyshort,asitsabilitytoinvestincapacityexpansioninthesemarketsisseverelyrestrictedrelativetoothercommoditymarkets,whichfurtherunderscoresthestructuralnatureoftheseconstraints.
Accordingly,webelievethatthesecommoditiesarebestpositionedtocapturethethemeof'resourcerealignment',whichistheneedtoredirectresourcesthatareinlimitedsupplyawayfromthedevelopedmarketsandtowardstheemergingmarkets.
Webelievethisredirectionorrationingoflimitedsuppliescanonlycomeaboutthroughhigherprices.
AndwithUSgrowthlikelytobeonmoresolidfooting,thisdynamicwilllikelybecomemorepronouncedin2011whenUSdemandisexpectedtorecovertowardpre-crisislevelsandbumpupagainstaChinathatisnowconsuming23%moreoil,63%morecopper,18%morecottonandsoybeansand29%moreplatinumthanitdidin2007.
Werecommendimplementingthistradewithabasketcomprisedof:Dec-11WTI(weight40%),Dec-11LMECopper(20%),Nov-11CBOTsoybeans(10%),Dec-11NYBcotton(10%)andaS&PGSCI-typerollingfrontmonthplatinumindex(20%).
WeinitiatedthisrecommendationonDecember1,2010(seeGlobalViewpointIssueNo:10/25)witha12-monthexpectedreturnof28%.
2011年1月25日全球高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究6CurrenttradingrecommendationsSource:GoldmanSachsGlobalECSResearch.
LongEuropeanGasoilBuyMarch2011EuropeanICEGasoilNovember10,2010-EnergyWeekly$791.
75/mt$818.
50/mt$62.
00/mtRolledonJanuary10,2011fromaBuyJanuary2011EuropeanIEGasoilfora$35.
25/mtgainLongCCCPbasketBuyDec-11WTI(weight40%),Dec-11LMECopper(20%),Nov-11CBOTsoybeans(10%),Dec-11NYBcotton(10%),S&PGSCIplatinumindex(20%)December1,2010-GlobalViewpoint100.
0112.
312.
3%LongSoybeansBuyNovember2011CBOTSoybeanNovember18,2010-AgricultureUpdate$11.
60/bu$13.
48/bu$1.
88/buShortAluminumSellFebruary2011AluminumNovember5,2010-MetalsWeekly$2,462/mt$2,404/mt$58/mtLongGoldBuyDecember2011COMEXGoldOctober11,2010-PreciousMetals$1,364.
2/toz$1,349.
6/toz($14.
6/toz)LongCornBuyMarch2011CBOTCornOctober8,2010-AgricultureUpdate$5.
38/bu$6.
57/bu$1.
20/buLongCopperBuyDecember2011CopperOctober4,2010-MetalsWatch$8,024/mt$9,313/mt$1,290/mtLongPlatinumBuyJanuary2011NYMEXPlatinumJuly15,2009-CommodityWatch$1,611.
1/toz$1,818.
8/toz$644.
7/tozAsofcloseonJanuary21,2011.
Inclusiveofallpreviousrollingprofits/losses.
Withmarketlimitupontradeentry,initialvalueproxiedwithclosinglevelonOctober8,2010.
Currentprofit/(loss)1RolledonSeptember16,2010fromaBuyOctober2010NYMEXPlatinumfora$437.
0/tozgainCurrenttradesFirstrecommendedInitialvalueCurrentValue2011年1月25日全球高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究7Priceactions,volatilitiesandforecastsSource:GoldmanSachsGlobalECSResearch.
S&PGSCIEnhancedCommodityIndexandstrategies'totalreturnandforecasts11YTDreturnsthroughJanuary21,2010.
Source:Standard&Poor's,GoldmanSachsGlobalECSResearch.
units21JanChangeImplied2ChangeRealized2Change3Q094Q091Q102Q103Q104Q103m6m12mEnergy-0.
714.
400.
060.
150.
68-3.
07IndustrialMetals4-16761535-12PreciousMetals-47-2.
1Agriculture608655-27209-0.
75.
14.
41Monthlychangeisdifferenceofcloseonlastbusinessdayandcloseamonthago.
2Monthlyvolatilitychangeisdifferenceofaveragevolatilityoverthepastmonthandthatofthepriormonth(3-moATMimpliedvolatility,1-morealizedvolatility).
3Priceforecastsrefertopromptcontractpriceforecastsin3-,6-,and12-monthstime.
4BasedonLMEthreemonthprices.
2.
702.
622.
172.
001.
942.
112.
222.
47-4.
1119.
8-5.
61.
86RBOBGasoline$/gal2.
4627.
3103.
50BrentCrudeOil$/bbl97.
6026.
9-2.
9519.
4-1.
168.
8775.
5491.
50101.
5078.
8878.
0577.
3779.
4176.
9687.
45HistoricalPrices68.
2476.
13-0.
6105.
5076.
2185.
2493.
00103.
00Volatilities(%)andmonthlychanges2Pricesandmonthlychanges1WTICrudeOil$/bblPriceForecasts389.
1127.
8-2.
7920.
2-3.
0327.
02.
81.
733.
754.
503.
984.
001.
942.
012.
072.
012.
722.
76NYMEXNat.
Gas$/mmBtu4.
7438.
42.
312.
50USGCHeatingOil$/gal2.
6027.
34.
354.
23-4.
4138.
3-5.
03.
44-3.
6334.
2-12.
423.
484.
934.
99220022002365220031.
8333.
3537.
4842.
6840.
5044.
70LMEAluminum$/mt241928.
051.
7438.
90UKNBPNat.
Gasp/th55.
1241.
121222110-1.
2118.
7-2.
91836-1.
7718.
2-3.
1585620372199195001950023619195006677727470427278880011000LMENickel$/mt2616037.
086148800LMECopper$/mt944132.
22243121271-0.
3730.
35.
717576-1.
2225.
9-10.
5178017593201631565169013701480224123072052204324003100LondonGold$/troyoz134118.
423332400LMEZinc$/mt231838.
211971228-1.
9816.
72.
7962-3.
1336.
8-0.
614.
71099111075075070777517.
616.
918.
319.
026.
128.
2CBOTWheatcent/bu82542.
426.
424.
7LondonSilver$/troyoz27.
135.
84676531.
1026.
8-11.
34850.
8522.
2-0.
710495224966756755627151002955957103515751575CBOTCorncent/bu65741.
512451600CBOTSoybeancent/bu141231.
0355422-0.
2727.
8-2.
9327n/a37.
7-13.
56038637017517520520071768187125125NYBOTCoffeecent/lb240n/a128150NYBOTCottoncent/lb157n/a140174n/a27.
9-2.
1125n/a24.
8-9.
1286713913425.
020.
029.
030.
0325930702987286324002400NYBOTSugarcent/lb32.
352.
028562700NYBOTCocoa$/mt3184n/a15.
520.
23.
4859.
816.
420.
6n/a17.
48.
085.
423.
624.
485.
090.
071.
275.
083.
690.
593.
795.
0110.
0110.
0CMELeanHogcent/lb80.
3n/a100.
5105.
0CMELiveCattlecent/lb108.
0n/a57.
869.
781.
979.
7n/a20.
7-11.
853.
7(%)200920102011YTD12-moForecastS&PGSCIEnhancedCommodityIndex100.
021.
612.
21.
318.
6Energy66.
223.
85.
91.
422.
0IndustrialMetals8.
382.
716.
5-1.
720.
0PreciousMetals3.
125.
234.
5-6.
517.
0Agriculture17.
93.
633.
73.
610.
0Livestock4.
5-11.
318.
51.
44.
02011年1月25日全球高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究8ThecyclicalcommoditiesjointherallyasgoldfaltersAlthoughcommoditieshaveperformedextremelywellsincetheendofNovember,whathasbeennotableistheperformanceofcyclicalcommoditieslikesoilandcopper,whichhavejoinedtherallyinagriculturalcommoditiesevenasgoldpriceshavefaltered.
Thisisthefirsttimesincethesummerof2009thatgolddidnotleadthecommoditycomplexhigheronasustainedbasis,whichhighlightsthesubstantialchangesthathaveoccurredintheglobalfinanciallandscapeinrecentmonthsastheUSeconomicrecoveryhasshiftedontoamuchmoresolidfooting.
Thisshiftiscentraltoourviewfor2011,asweexpectcyclicalandindustrialcommoditiestoenterabullmarket,augmentingthebullmarketinagriculturalcommoditiesthatbeganin2010.
Meanwhile,withtheUSeconomicrecoverylikelytoleadtorisingUSrealinterestrates,wecontinuetoexpectthattherallyingoldpriceswilllikelyendin2012.
Whilewestillseegoldasacompellingtradethisyear,wecontinuetocautioninvestorsthatatcurrentpriceswenolongerseeitasalong-terminvestment.
Further,therecentrallyinUSrealinterestratesraisesthedownsideriskthatourforecastedpeakingoldpricesmayoccursoonerthanexpected,in2011.
Whiletherecentrallyincyclicalcommodities,particularlyinbasemetals,mayhavecarriedpricesalittleaheadofnear-termfundamentals,westillseesignificantupsidepotentialastheyearprogressesandmarketscontinuetotighten.
Drivingthispositiveviewisnotsimplytheexpectationofcontinuedstrong,albeitslowing,demandgrowthoutofChina,butratherastrongerUSeconomycreatingtheneedforresourcecompetition.
Thishasbeennomoreapparentthaninoil,whereUSoildemandaveragedabove20millionb/dinDecemberforthefirsttimesincethesummerof2008.
ThisstrongUSdemandagainstcontinuedsolidChineseimports,substantiallytightenedglobaloilmarketsandpushedfrontmonthBrentcrudeoilintosustainablebackwardation,whichwaslastseeninMay2008.
ThebottomlineisthatduringDecemberandearlyJanuary,thefundamentalbackdropoftheoverallcommoditycomplexbegantoresembletheonethatcharacterizedtheperiodleadinguptothefinancialcrisis:Strongerdevelopedmarket(DM)demand,morenormalstockpiles,tightertobackwardatedforwardcurves,andoverallpricelevelsbacktoearly2008levels.
Thebigdifference,however,isthatadecadeofhighcommoditypricessolvedthesupplyproblemsinsomeofthekeymarketslikenaturalgas,aluminium,nickelandwheat.
Soaswehaveemphasizedinthepast,thekeymarketsthatstillremainsupplyconstrainedasweenterthisnewcyclearecrudeoil,copper,cotton/soybeansandplatinum(CCCP),aspoliticalconstraintsoninvestmenthavepreventedthenormalinvestmentcyclecreationofnewproductioncapacity.
Further,thesesamecommoditiesarealsothekeycommoditiesthatChinaandIndiaareextremelyshort,whichonlyamplifiesthescarcitypremiumattachedtothesemarkets.
Themarketsthathavethemoststrikingsimilaritytothepre-financialcrisisperiodareagriculturemarkets,wherepriceshavenowexceededthe2008peakwithrealphysicalshortagesdeveloping.
Itshouldnotbesurprisingthatthesemarketsarethefirsttogetextremelytightinthisnewcycleasitisthelackofcyclicalityandmorestabilityinfooddemandoverthepasttwoyearsthatisexposingthestructuralnatureofthesupplyconstraintsfirst,whiletheseconstraintsweremoremaskedinthecyclicalcommoditieswhendemandwasextremelyweak.
Inaddition,wedonotseeagriculturepricesabatingevenatthesehighlevels,butinsteadjustraisedourcorn,cottonandsoybeanforecasts(seeourJanuary12,2011AgricultureUpdate:Raisingourpriceforecastsoncontinuedtighteningincropbalances)toreflectpoorweatherconditionsintheSouthernHemisphereandtheneedfor"acreagebattle"intheNorthernHemispherethisspringwhenplantingoccurs.
Onnet,whilenear-termweareNeutraloncommoditiesgiventhesharprun-upinpricesduringDecember,ona6-monthand12-monthbasisweremainOverweightandareraisingour12-monthS&PGSCIEnhancedTotalReturnindexforecastto18.
6%duetoastronger-than-expectedrollreturnasseveralcommodityforwardcurvesareexhibitingbackwardationsoonerthanexpected.
Drivingthisreturnarenotonlythecyclicalcommoditieslikeoilandcopperwherewemaintainverypositivemedium-termviews,butalsotheagricultureandlivestocksectors.
2011年1月25日全球高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究9Althoughwedonotexpectpreciousmetalstoleadthecomplexlikeithasoverthepastseveralyears,westillseea17.
0%12-monthreturn,underscoringourviewthatthepeakingoldisstillinfrontofusandlikelyin2012.
Energy:+7.
2%fromDecember1,2010throughJanuary21,2011;+1.
4%ytdthroughJanuary21,2011Petroleum2011年1月25日全球高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究10+7.
5%fromDecember1,2010throughJanuary21,2011;+1.
4%ytdthroughJanuary21,2011ThestrengthoftheglobaloilmarketrecoverycontinuedtotightentheUSoilmarketintotheendof2010.
FromNovember26throughDecember31,UStotalpetroleuminventoriesdrew42.
5millionbarrels,relativetoa10-yearaveragedrawofjust18.
5millionbarrels(seeExhibit1),implyingthattheUSoilmarketended2010withdemandexceedingsupplyby685thousandb/donaseasonally-adjustedbasis.
Thissuggeststhatmuchofthetightnessintheworldoilmarket,whichhasbeeninaseasonally-adjusteddeficitof1.
0millionb/dsinceMay2010,isnowbeingobservedintheUSoilmarketasimportshavefallen.
TheresultingdrawonUStotalpetroleuminventorieshascuttheUSoilinventoryoverhangalmostinhalf,fromapeak140millionbarrelsinmid-Septemberto80millionbarrelscurrently,pushingWTIcrudeoilpricesintothe$85-$95/bbltradingrangethatweanticipatedforthestartof2011.
Exhibit1:UStotalpetroleuminventorieshavebeendrawingmuchfasterthannormalinDecemberChangeinUStotalcrudeandproductstocks,millionbarrelsSource:DOE,GoldmanSachsGlobalECSResearch.
SevereweatherhasundercutUSdemandinDecemberwhilebolsteringdemandinEuropeandChinaExceptionallycoldweatherinthenorthernhemisphere(seeExhibit2)andexcessiverainfallsinAustraliaareimpactingoilproductdemandacrosstheglobe.
Morespecifically:TheblizzardthathittheUSeastcoastintheweekafterChristmasdumpedbetween12and32inchesofsnow,cripplingbothprivateandpublictransportation,groundingaircraftandtrappingmotoristsathome.
Asaconsequence,USdemandfortransportationfuelsdroppedsignificantlyattheendofDecember.
Asthisdeclineindemandwasmainlyweatherrelated,USproductdemandhasstrengthenedagainonaseasonallyadjustedbasisinthetwoweeksfollowingthestorm.
WhilesnowstormsinEuropealsocrippledairtrafficandfueldeliveriestolocalgasstations,thiswas,contrarytotheUnitedStates,likelyoutweighedbytheextraheatingoildemandcausedbytheextremelycoldtemperatures.
Europestillreliesquiteheavilyonoilforheatingpurposes,withtheseasonalincreaseindemandfor-45.
0-40.
0-35.
0-30.
0-25.
0-20.
0-15.
0-10.
0-5.
00.
0Nov26Dec03Dec10Dec17Dec24Dec3120105yearaverage(2003-2007)10yearaverage(2000-2009)2011年1月25日全球高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究11middledistillates(excludingdiesel)inthewinterseasonroughlytwiceashighinEuropecomparedtotheUnitedStates.
FreezingtemperaturesinChinahaveimpactedelectricityproductionduetoalackofcoal.
Thelikelyeffectisincreasedoildemandforheatingpurposes,butalsoapotentialcontinueduseofdiesel-firedpowergeneratorsforelectricity.
BothelectricityproducersanddistributorshavebeenorderedbytheChinaStateElectricityRegulatoryCommissiontoensuresufficientpowertoareasaffectedbythecoldsnap,whichcouldleaveotherareasundersupplied.
InourviewitislikelythatsomeChinesefirmswhosepowersupplieswerecurtailedandhavebeenrunningondiesel-firedgeneratorsinrecentmonthswillhavetocontinuetorelyonthesealternativepowersuppliesforlonger,creatingextrademandfordieseloverthenearterm.
CatastrophicfloodsinthestateofQueenslandinAustraliahaveledtoashutdownof75%ofthelocalcoalproduction.
Althoughpredominatelyaffectingcokingcoalexports,itcouldalsoaffecttheamountofthermalcoalimportedbyChina,whichwouldraisethelikelihoodofcontinueddiesel-firedgenerationinChina.
Exhibit2:TheweatherinEuropehasbeenexceptionallycoldsofarthiswinterSource:GoldmanSachsGlobalECSResearch.
Onnet,extremeweatherconditionsgloballylikelysupportedoildemandinDecemberandcontinuedtosupportoildemandinsomeregions,particularlyChina.
Goingforward,weexpectUSoildemandtoremainsupportedbyimprovementintheoutlookfortheUSeconomicrecoverygoingforward,particularlyasourUSeconomistsrecentlyreviseduptheirforecastforUSGDPgrowthfurtherto3.
4%in2011and3.
8%in2012frompreviously2.
7%and3.
6%.
WhilethepotentialdemandforgasoilforpowerproductioninChinaislikelytransient(seeExhibits3and4),weexpectthatstrongeconomicgrowthwillcontinuetofuelChineseoildemandgrowthgoingforward,averaging850thousandb/dyear-over-yearin2011from950thousandb/din2010.
UnitedStates1UnitedKingdom2North-WestEurope2,3Med-Europe2,4Asia2,5TotalHDDs549374397316192November10yavgHDDs545325364301192HDDdeviation(%)1%15%9%5%0%TotalHDDs939552616496332December10yavgHDDs844409465438343HDDdeviation(%)11%35%32%13%-3%TotalHDDs2261121913361138877Winter-to-date10yavgHDDs2078102711681062849HDDdeviation(%)9%19%14%7%3%1Gas-consumption-weightedHDDsFahrenheit2HDDCelsius3Gas-consumption-weightedHDDaverageacrossUK,Netherlands,GermanyandFrance4Gas-consumption-weightedHDDaverageacrossSpain,ItalyandAustria5Gas-consumption-weightedHDDaverageacrossChina,Japan,India,SouthKorea,Singapore,Hongkong2011年1月25日全球高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究12Exhibit3:StrongdemandfordieselhaspushedChineseoildemandtocloseto10millionb/dinDecember…Thousandb/dExhibit4:…andresultedinlargevolumesofproductimportsThousandb/dSource:CNBS,GoldmanSachsGlobalECSResearch.
Source:CNBS,GoldmanSachsGlobalECSResearch.
WhiletheimprovedoutlookforUSeconomicrecoveryshouldsupporttheglobaloilmarketrecovery,increasedsuppliesintheUSmid-continentareincreasingtheimportanceoflocalissuesrelativetoglobalonesWhiletheUSoilmarkethasmovedintoaseasonally-adjusteddeficitof685thousandb/dasatightglobalmarketrestrictsimportsintotheUnitedStates,theUSoilmarketitselfhasbecomeincreasinglyfragmentedbythehighandrisinglevelofoilinventoriesinthemidcontinent.
TheoverhangofUSoilinventorieshasbecomeprimarilyamid-continent(PADD2)issue,withcrudeinventoriesinCushing(thepointofdeliveryfromNYMEXWTIfuturecontracts)atclosetoanall-timehigh,whileUSoilinventoriesoutsideofPADD2arenownearnormallevels.
Asaresult,neardatedWTIcrudeoilpricescontinuetotradeatsignificantdiscountstootherlightsweetcrudessuchasBrentandLLS(seeExhibit5).
BecausethesehigherinventoriesarebeingcausedbystructuralsupplyincreasesintheUSmid-continent,wedonotthinktheywillbealleviatedbytheongoingglobalrecovery.
Instead,theywilllikelyrequirerealignmentofthepipelineinfrastructureintheUnitedStatestothenewsupply-demandbalanceintheUSoilmarketinourview.
45005500650075008500950010500JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec20102009200820072006-200-1000100200300400500600700800JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec20102009200820072011年1月25日全球高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究13Exhibit5:WTItradesatasignificantdiscounttoBrentattheshortendofthefuturescurveaslocalissuesatPADD2,andparticularlyCushing,Oklahoma,persist$/bblSource:NYMEX,ICE,GoldmanSachsGlobalECSResearch.
889092949698100Feb-11Aug-11Feb-12Aug-12Feb-13Aug-13Feb-14Aug-14Feb-15Aug-15WTIBrent2011年1月25日全球高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究14NaturalGas+3.
8%fromDecember1,2010throughJanuary21,2011;+1.
8%ytdthroughJanuary21,2011NaturalgaspricesperformedwellinDecemberinbothintheUnitedStatesandEurope,withfrontmonthpricesgaining3%and9%respectivelyonthemonth,asmarkedlycolder-than-normaltemperaturessupportednaturalgasdemand(seeExhibit6).
ThewinterweatherhasbeenmostextremeinNorth-WestEurope,andinparticularintheUnitedKingdom,whichhasimpactedstoragelevelsandcontributedtoUKNBPpricesspikinguptooil-indexedcontinentalpricesandLNGspotprices(seeExhibit7).
SofarinJanuary,however,UKNBPpriceshavepulledbackslightly,whileNYMEXpricesremainsupportedbythecoldweather.
Exhibit6:Weatherhasbeenverysupportiveofnaturalgasdemandsofarthiswinter,especiallyinNWEurope…Winter-to-dateHDDdeviationrelativetoseasonalnormin%(lhs)andestimatedincrementaldemandinBcf(rhs)Exhibit7:…promptingUKNBPtospikeuptooil-indexedgasprices,andfurtherawayfromNYMEXGlobalnaturalgasprices,$/mmBtuSource:EarthSat,Bloomberg,GoldmanSachsGlobalECSResearch.
Source:NYMEX,ICE,Platts,GoldmanSachs.
Theweather-inducedincrementaldemandhasbeenmetbyhigherimportsandsharpinventorydrawsonbothsidesoftheAtlantic.
IntheUnitedStates,pipelineimportsfromCanadaandtosomeextentalsoLNGimportsalongtheEastCoastincreasedinresponsetothecoldspellinearlyDecember,aswellasinthefirstweeksoftheNewYear.
However,thissupply-sideresponsehasnotbeenenoughtosatisfydemand,andinventorywithdrawalshavebeenlargerthannormal.
Inaddition,wemadeslightupwardrevisionstoindustrialdemandfornaturalgasonthebackofrecenthikestotheUSgrowthoutlookbyoureconomists.
Net,afterincorporatingtheweatherimpactthroughJanuary21wereduceourestimatesfortotalUSinventoriesto1668BcfbytheendofMarchand3760BcfbytheendofOctoberfrom1746and3839,respectively(seeourJanuary10,2011,NaturalGasWeekly:Weathertightensbalances,butsupplyandstorageremainample).
InNorth-WestEurope,thecoldDecemberweatherhadasimilareffect.
Pipelineimportsfromkeysuppliershavebeenhigh,butevenmoreimpressivewasthejumpinLNGimportsintoUnitedKingdomandFrancesofarthiswinter(seeExhibit8).
However,therelativeimpactonstoragelevelshasstillbeenlargerinNorth-WestEuropethanintheUnitedStates,furthersupportingUKNBPpricesrelativetoNYMEX.
Specifically,UKandFrenchinventoriesarecurrentlybelowhalf-full,andmarkedlybelowtheirseasonalnormofaround60%full.
However,milderweathermorerecentlyandmoreampleinventoriesinotherpartsofEuropetakecurrentaggregatestoragelevelsabove60%offullandclosertonormallevels(seeExhibit9).
01002003004005006000%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%UnitedStatesNorth-WestEuropeMedEuropeTotalHDDdeviation(lhs)Incrementaldemand(rhs)3.
005.
007.
009.
0011.
0001/01/201001/05/201001/09/201001/01/2011NYMEXNaturalGasJapan-KoreaLNGmarkerUKNBPNaturalGasGasunieproxy2011年1月25日全球高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究15Exhibit8:UKandFrenchLNGimportshaverespondedtothecoldweather…LNGsend-outs,weeklymovingaverages,Bcf/dExhibit9:…butEuropeanstoragelevelshavedeclinedsharplyaswellAggregateEuropeannaturalgasinventories,%offullSource:NationalGrid,GRTGaz.
Source:GasInfrastructureEurope(GIE).
Goingforward,wethinkthetransientweather-inducedtightnessbothintheUnitedStatesandEuropewillsubside.
InEurope,thisnormalizationprocessislikelyalreadyunderway,whileintheUnitedStatesthecurrentweatherforecastcallsforcontinuedcolder-than-normaltemperaturesforatleasttwomoreweeks.
OurtrimmedstorageestimatesincombinationwiththecoldweatheroutlookintroducesomeupsiderisktoourUSnaturalgaspriceforecastoverthecomingyear,especiallyduringthesummermonthsaslowerinventoriessuggestlesscoal-to-gassubstitutionwillneedtobeincentivizedinordertoavoidbreachingstoragecapacity.
However,westillexpectinventoriestoendwinteratrecord-highlevelsandbelieveanotherlegupinproductionwillbethedominantdriveroftheUSmarketin2011.
Inaddition,ifpricesweretoremainatcurrentlevelswebelievethereisupsiderisktoourproductionnumbers,whichwouldputpressureonprices.
Accordingly,wemaintainourNYMEXpriceforecastsof$4.
00/mmBtuonaveragein2011and$4.
25/mmBtuin2012,belowthecurrentforwardcurve.
AlsoinEurope,thecoldweatheraddsupsiderisktoourpriceforecasts,butwecontinuetoexpectthemarkettobewellsuppliedin2011bypipelineimportsandcontinuedramp-upofgloballiquefactioncapacity(seeourDecember9,2010,NaturalGasWeekly:UKnaturalgasrallytransient;LNGandpipelineimportstorise).
Wecontinuetoconsiderafulldraw-downofstocksalowprobabilityevent,andseedownsidetoUKNBPpricesfromcurrentlevels.
0.
00.
51.
01.
52.
02.
53.
03.
54.
001/01/201001/03/201001/05/201001/07/201001/09/201001/11/201001/01/2011FranceUnitedKingdom0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec20112010200920082011年1月25日全球高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究16IndustrialMetals:+7.
6%fromDecember1,2010throughJanuary21,2011;-1.
7%ytdthroughJanuary21,2011AfteraverystrongDecember,basemetalpriceshavemostlytradedsidewaysyear-to-date,withasupportivemacrooutlookandahostofpotentialsupplyriskssupportingsentiment.
However,webelievethattemporaryChinesedestockingatthefirstuselevels,duetopowerrestrictionsand4Q2010tightening,hasdeferreddemandheadingintotheChineseLunarNewYear,atimeoftypicalspotmarketstrength.
Further,incopperwebelievemuchoftheChineseindustrialshut-inlateintheyearwasunexpected,andleftoff-takedeliveriescominginstronglyandrefinedstocksbuilding.
Acrossthecomplex,wecanseefurtherevidenceofwellsuppliedmarketsfromglobalexchangeinventories,whichhaveremainedstableorincreasingdespitestrongerglobalmomentumin4Q2010.
Thereforewebelieveitistooearlyfordeficit-drivenpricespikes,andpricesarelikelyatthehighendofnear-termrangesacrossthecomplex,leavingpriceriskskewedtothedownside.
However,wedonotbelievethatend-demanddriverswereslowingtotheextentofheavyindustryatthebeginningofsupplychainsinChina,andthereforethetypicalseasonal-restockingsurgeislikelyonlydeferred.
Combinedwithabetteroutlookfordevelopedmarketsin2011,webelievedemandwillpickupstronglyastheyearprogresses.
Suchfundamentaldynamicsaremostpronouncedinthecoppermarket.
ThelackofseasonalrestockingdemandtypicallyaroundtheChineseNewYearwassurprisingandthecurrentlyclosedSHFE-LMEarbandbuildingbondedwarehousestocksinShanghaihavealsocreatedconcernsaboutweakeningChinesedemand(seeExhibits10and11).
Exhibit10:DomesticrestockingactivitiestypicallytakeplacearoundtheChineseNewYear,withtheSHFE-LMEarbwindowopeningaroundthesametimewhenexcessspotdeliveriesaredemandedSHFE-LMEarbin$/mt,accountingforVAT,leftaxis;metalstosemisratio,rightaxisExhibit11:DestockingactivitiesamongChinesefabricatorshavebeenstrongerthanusualRatioSource:SHFE,LME,ChinaNon-FerrousMetalIndustryAssociation,GoldmanSachsGlobalECSResearch.
Source:SHFE,LME,ChinaNon-FerrousMetalIndustryAssociation,GoldmanSachsGlobalECSResearch.
However,webelievethedelayedrestockingdemandandtheclosedarbisatemporaryphenomenonwiththeChinesedomesticmarketbeingrelativelywell-suppliedaftermonthsofstrongimportsduringaperiodofmanyunplannedindustrialshutdownsduetoyear-endpoweruserestrictionsandcredittightening.
Thiscombinationofstrongimportsandindustrialtighteninghasledtoaperiodofbuildinginventoryandatypicaldestockingpatterns.
Nevertheless,webelievetheconcernsovermedium-termdownsiderisksareunwarrantedasgrowingimplied0.
40.
50.
60.
70.
80.
91.
01.
11.
21.
3-1,000-800-600-400-2000200400600Jan-04Jan-05Jan-06Jan-07Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10SHFE-LMEArbMetalstosemisratio0.
40.
50.
60.
70.
80.
91.
01.
11.
21.
3Jan-04Sep-04May-05Jan-06Sep-06May-07Jan-08Sep-08May-09Jan-10Sep-10RatioofmetaltosemisAverageAboveline:stockingBelowline:de-stockingNovemberlevel2011年1月25日全球高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究17demandandtotalcontained-copperimportgrowth(ontopofsignificantrestockingin2009)generallysignalhealthydemandgrowthinlinewithourforecasts(seeExhibits12and13),despitethesoftspot-marketsindicatingadequatenear-termsupplyandinventories.
Further,ourex-postdemandmodelpredictionsshowChinesecopperdemandlikelysurprisedtotheupsideasaresultofstronger-than-expectedactivityfromend-usesectors,despitetheslowdowneffectsfromdestockingactivitiesandtighteningmonetaryconditionsin4Q10.
Thisalsosuggeststhatdemandhasonlybeendeferred,andnotlostduringthe4Q10softening.
Exhibit12:ImpliedcopperdemandfromChinaremainedstronginNovember,growing7%yoyYoygrowth,percentExhibit13:WebelievethatgrowingtotalcontainedcopperimportssignalhealthycopperdemandSource:SHFE,LME,ChinaNon-FerrousMetalIndustryAssociation,NBS,GoldmanSachsGlobalECSResearch.
Source:GeneralAdministrationofCustoms,BrookHunt,GoldmanSachsGlobalECSResearch.
Exhibit14:Ourex-postmodelpredictionsshowChinesecopperdemandlikelysurprisedtotheupsideasaresultofstronger-than-expectedactivityfromend-usesectors,despite4Q10dragsfromdestockingandtighteningmonetaryconditionsEx-postvs.
originalChinesecopperdemandforecastsinMtSource:NBS,PBOC,CNIA,GeneralAdministrationofCustoms,GoldmanSachsGlobalECSResearch.
-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%Jan-07May-07Sep-07Jan-08May-08Sep-08Jan-09May-09Sep-09Jan-10May-10Sep-10ConsumerdurableIndustrialequipmentTransportCementSteelInfrastructureCopperyoyKmtJul-10Aug-10Sep-10Oct-10Nov-10Dec-10MetalsCopperImportsUnwroughtCopper&CopperProducts343380368274352345yoy%-15.
7%16.
7%-7.
7%4.
0%21.
2%-6.
7%mom%4.
5%10.
7%-2.
9%-25.
8%28.
5%-2.
0%ytd%-2.
6%-0.
5%-1.
3%-0.
9%0.
7%0.
1%CopperWaste&Scrap380400410310400430yoy%-15.
6%2.
6%0.
0%19.
2%33.
3%-2.
3%mom%8.
6%5.
3%2.
5%-24.
4%29.
0%7.
5%ytd%9.
6%8.
5%7.
4%8.
3%10.
4%9.
0%CopperOre&Concentrates470470680470550yoy%-7.
8%-11.
3%21.
4%4.
4%10.
0%mom%-14.
5%0.
0%44.
7%-30.
9%17.
0%ytd%5.
5%3.
4%5.
5%5.
4%5.
8%TotalContainedCopperImports608652700513646507*yoy%-14.
3%6.
6%0.
0%7.
1%20.
9%3.
4%mom%0.
9%7.
2%7.
4%-26.
7%25.
9%6.
9%ytd%1.
3%2.
0%1.
7%2.
2%3.
7%3.
6%*TotalContainedCopperImportsnumberforDec-2010doesnotincludecopperore&concentrateimports.
AllgrowthcalculationsforDec-2010doesnotaccountforcopperore&concentrateimportsinDec-09andDec-10.
-100,000-50,000050,000100,000150,000Aug-10Sep-10Oct-10Nov-10UrbanFAIGearingproductionAutoproductionAirconditionerproductionMomchangeinRRRCoppermetaltosemisratioEx-postvsoriginalChineseCudemandforecastsurprise2011年1月25日全球高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究18Onthesupplyside,webelievedifferentiationsinproductiongrowthprospectshavealsobeendrivingthedifferentoutlooksacrossmetals.
Forcopper,webelievethattheDecember20forcemajeureonCollahuasiconcentrateshipmentsoutofChile(roughly3%ofglobalmineproduction)hasthepotentialtotightenrefinedmetalmarketsifCollahuasicustomersareunabletoreplacesmelterfeedfromlostdeliveries.
Thisdisruptionisadifferentsupply-constrainingdynamicthanthe33-daystrikerecentlyresolvedatthesameoperation.
Whereaswebelievethestrikeaddedmedium-termsupporttoourviewsonthecopperdeficit,theforcemajeureondeliveriescanhaveamoreimmediateeffectifsupplytightnessprogressesthroughthesupplychainandremovesnear-termmetalfromthemarket(evenasshippingdelaysallowtheminetorebuildworkingstocks,andthereforelessmedium-termimpact).
Furthermore,therecentstrikeannouncementatCerroVerde(another2%ofglobalmineproduction)addsmoresupplysiderisk,thoughourbaselineviewisthatproducercontingencyplanningshouldmitigatenear-termdisruptions,aswiththeCollahausistrikebefore,butagaincouldhavesomemedium-termimpactonanyproductionlossesunabletobemadeup.
Foraluminum,whilewehavebecomeincrementallymorepositiveonfundamentalsonthebackofupgradestooureconomists'USandglobalGDPforecasts,westillbelievethatthetightestperiodsinthealuminummarketsoccurredinlate2010,andthattheextremeweathercausingregionalcoalshortagesinChina,andsupplydisruptionsinAustraliawillnottightenthemarkettothepointofdeficits.
Wecontinuetobelieveexpectedsupplygrowthof6%in2011andexcesscapacityandinventorytosparewillkeepthemarketoversuppliedfortheforeseeablefuture.
Furthermore,whileenergypriceshavemovedintoahigherrange(inlinewithourforecastsforoil,butalsoinseabornecoalduetothefloodsinAustralia),webelievethiswillonlygiveincrementalcostsupporttolong-datedprices.
Webelievehigherenergypriceslikelyadded$100/mtinrecentweeks,asseenintherecentstep-upinlong-datedprices(reflectingthemarginalcostofproduction),andtightermarketsduetoChineseproductioncurtailmentsandanimprovingcyclicaloutlookaddedanother$25/mtto$50/mt,asseenintighternear-datedtimespreads(seeExhibits15and16).
Thereforedespiterecentstrengthinaluminumprices,themetalhasbeentradingclosetotheupperendofourforecastrangeintheneartermandweseelittleupsidefromtoday'spriceataround$2,500/mt.
Exhibit15:Webelievehigherenergycostshaveaddedtoaluminum'slong-datedcostsupportandtightermarketshavealsostrengthenedthenear-datedtimespreads$/mtExhibit16:EnergyconservationrelatedmeasuresalsoledtoChinesealuminumproductioncurtailmentsin4Q10Source:LME,GoldmanSachsGlobalECSResearch.
Source:CRU,GoldmanSachsGlobalECSResearch.
Whilenickeltrailedtherestofthecomplexovermostofthesecondhalf,ithasnowbeenthestrongestperformersincethemid-Novembercorrectionasmarketsentimentshiftedtowards-120-100-80-60-40-200201,5001,7001,9002,1002,3002,5002,7002,900Jan-10Mar-10May-10Jul-10Sep-10Nov-10Jan-113-monthaluminumprice5-yearaluminumprice3-60monthaluminumtimespread(RHS)SmelternameProvinceTotalCapacityCapacitycurtailedExpectedPeriodExpectedproductionloss000tpy000tpyStartEndTotal3Q104Q10BaiseYinhaiGuangxi200100Sep-10Dec-1033.
38.
325.
0LaibinGuangxi250125Sep-10Dec-1041.
710.
431.
3PingguoGuangxi15080Sep-10Dec-1026.
76.
720.
0AnshunHuangguoshuGuizhou10020Sep-10Dec-106.
71.
75.
0GuizhouGuizhou42095Sep-10Dec-1031.
77.
923.
8KailiYangguangGuizhou3020Sep-10Dec-106.
71.
75.
0ShuangpaiLiupanshuiGuizhou22050Sep-10Dec-1016.
74.
212.
5XifengGuizhou3030Sep-10Dec-1010.
02.
57.
5ZunyiGuizhou250100Sep-10Dec-1033.
38.
325.
0JiaozuoWanfangHenan420140Oct-10Dec-1035.
00.
035.
0LinzhouHenan35070Oct-10Dec-1017.
50.
017.
5ShenhuoHenan920280Jul-10Dec-10140.
070.
070.
0WanjiHenan660100Oct-10Dec-1025.
00.
025.
0YugangLongquanHenan650100Oct-10Dec-1025.
00.
025.
0ZhongfuHenan50030Oct-10Dec-107.
50.
07.
5OthersHenan100Oct-10Dec-1025.
00.
025.
0YangxinHongjunHubei7575Sep-10Dec-1025.
06.
318.
8TaishanTaianShandong6432Sep-10Dec-1010.
72.
78.
0YankuangShandong14028Sep-10Dec-109.
32.
37.
0HuazeShanxi35020Sep-10Dec-106.
71.
75.
0WeimingZunyi4020Sep-10Dec-106.
71.
75.
0OthercurtailmentsLianchengGansu24035Nov-10Nov-102.
90.
02.
9Qingtongxia(Wuzhong)Ningxia270270Nov-10Jan-1167.
50.
045.
0SichuanMeishanAostarSichuan12537Nov-10Nov-103.
10.
03.
1TotalProductionLoss613.
5136.
3454.
82011年1月25日全球高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究19optimismonthebackofsupplyriskandamorebalancedmarket(seeExhibit17).
Weneverthelessdisagree:Lookingatthesupply-siderisksspecifically,recentproductionissuesattheKwinananickelrefineryinWesternAustralia(roughly5%ofglobalproduction)haveagaintightenedbriquettemarkets,keepingpremium-refinedproductstightasexchangeinventoryisstillessentiallynon-existent(seeExhibit18).
Furthermore,weather-relatedproductionrisksinAustraliaandtheSouthPacifichavecloudedtheshort-termoutlookfornickelpigironandferronickelproduction,withcoalshortagesandweather-relatedriskstolateriteproductioninNewCaledonia,PhilippinesandIndonesia.
However,wehavenotheardofanyspecificshortageormeaningfulmovesindeliverypremiumstodate,andthereforethinkthesupplyrisksandmetaldeficitfearsareoverstatedandbelievepriceriskisheavilyskewedtothedownsideattoday'slevelsgivenexcesscapacityinferronickel/NPIandreadilyavailablesuppliesoffull-platecathode.
Exhibit17:Nickelunderperformedtostart4Q2010,buthasnowbeenthestrongestperformersincethemid-NovembercorrectionIndexedprices,October1,2010=1Exhibit18:Premiumrefinednickelproductmarketsremainedtightasexchangebriquettesinventoryisstillessentiallynon-existentLMEexchangeinventoryinMt,leftaxis;LME3-monthnickelpricein$/mt,rightaxisSource:LME,GoldmanSachsGlobalECSResearch.
Source:LME,GoldmanSachsGlobalECSResearch.
Thereforewebelievethatnear-termpriceriskisskewedtothedownsideacrossthebasemetalscomplex,aswegenerallyseenostrong1Q10deficits.
Whileweareincreasinglyconfidentthatcopperpriceswillmoveupintoarangeof$11,000/mtto$13,500/mt(orhigher)byyearend,webelieveitisstilltoosooninthecycleforacopperpricespike,evengiventhecurrentsupplydisruptionsinSouthAmerica.
Inaddition,whileweseerisingenergypricesandtemporarysupplyriskspotentiallyboostingsentimentinnickelandaluminum,webelieveadequateproductionaswellasexcesscapacityandinventorywillbeavailabletokeepthemarketwell-suppliedandseepricerisksheavilyskewedtothedownsidefornickel.
Asaresult,wereviseour12-monthS&PGSCIIndustrialMetalsEnhancedReturnsforecastto20.
0%.
0.
800.
850.
900.
951.
001.
051.
101.
151.
201.
25Oct-10Oct-10Oct-10Nov-10Nov-10Dec-10Dec-10Jan-113-monthzinc3-monthcopper3-monthaluminum3-monthnickel10,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,00022,00024,00026,00028,00030,000020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000Jul-09Oct-09Jan-10Apr-10Jul-10Oct-10Jan-11BriquettesCutCathodesPelletsFullPlateCathodesLME3-monthNickelPrice(RHS)2011年1月25日全球高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究20PreciousMetals:-3.
4%fromDecember1,2010throughJanuary21,2011;-6.
5%ytdthroughJanuary21,2011Whilegoldpricesralliedintoyear-end,reachingarecordhighof$1423/tozinearlyJanuary,theyhavefallenbacktomid-Novemberlows,endinglastweekat$1,337/toz.
Thisvolatiletradingenvironmentreflectsourviewthatwhileweexpectgoldpricestocontinuetomovehigherin2011,withrealinterestrateslikelyneartheircyclelow,goldatcurrentpricelevelsisatrade,butnotalong-terminvestment.
Inour2011-2012outlookreportforgold(seePreciousMetals:Goldrallytocontinuein2011,butprepareforpricestopeakin2012)wearguedthatwithrealinterestrateslikelytobeginmovinghigherin2011onthebackofthestrengtheningUSeconomicrecovery,itisprudentforinvestorstobeginprotectingtheirgoldinvestmentbybuyingputstoprovidedownsideprotection,financedbysellingcalls.
Themarketappearstobereflectingthis.
Forexample,thecallskewinthegoldoptionsmarket,thepremiumatwhichout-of-the-moneycallvolatilitytrades,hasrecentlyfallensignificantly,reflectiveofbothlesscallbuyinginterestandmorecallselling.
Webelievethisislikelytoenhancereturnsonexistingpositionsinwhatsomeperceiveasarange-boundortrendingmarketortofinanceputpurchasesbythoselookingfordownsideprotection.
Intermsofthelatter,putskew,thepremiumatwhichout-of-the-moneyputvolatilitytrades,hasincreasedsharply,aclearindicationthathedgingofexistinglonggoldpositionsandpositioningforlowerpriceshasbeentakingplaceinthemarket(seeExhibit19).
Overthepastweek,thisrepositioninginthegoldmarkethasaccelerated,withgold-ETFholdingsdecliningsharply(seeExhibit20).
Exhibit19:Shiftsingoldoptionskewsuggestashiftingoldpositioningspreadof25-deltacall/puttoATMimpliedvolatility(percent)Exhibit20:Gold-ETFholdingshavealsostartedtodeclinerecentlymilliontoz(rightaxis)Source:GoldmanSachs.
Source:VariousGold-ETFs.
-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%Jul-05Jan-06Jul-06Jan-07Jul-07Jan-08Jul-08Jan-09Jul-09Jan-10Jul-10Jan-116-mocallskew6-moputskew4647484950515253545556ETFholdings2011年1月25日全球高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究21Weviewtheseshiftsasaprudentresponseaswebelieverealinterestratesareneartheircyclelows,andwilllikelyriseoverthecourseof2011astheUSeconomicrecoverystrengthens.
TherecentvolatilityingoldpriceshasfurtherbeensupportedbythelargeswingsinUSrealinterestratessinceearlyDecember,withUS10-yearTIPSyieldsfirstrisingsharplyto1.
27%intoyear-end,followedbyasteadydeclineto0.
90%inJanuary,andarecentsurgebackto1.
20%lastFriday.
ThishasinfactbeenoneofthemostvolatiletradingpatternsoftheUS10-yearTIPSinrecentyears(seeExhibit21)andconsiderablyheighteneduncertaintyonthecurrentlevelofrealrates,andhencegoldprices(Exhibit22).
Exhibit21:VolatilityinUS10-yearTIPSyieldshassignificantlyincreased3-monthstandarddeviationofyieldlevelExhibit22:HighUSrealrateuncertaintyintroducesdownsiderisktoourconstructivegoldviewfor2011RealinterestratesarethekeydeterminantofgoldpricesoverthemediumtermunderstablemonetarydemandSource:FRB,andGSGlobalECSResearch.
Source:COMEX,FRB,GoldmanSachsGlobalECSResearch.
Thishasinturnraiseddownsideriskstoourconstructiveviewongoldpricesin2011asa10-yearTIPSyieldof1.
0%intheabsenceofsignificantgold-ETForcentralbankgoldbuyingpointtoagoldfairvaluejustshyof$1,400/toz.
Consequently,whilewemaintainour3,6,and12-monthgoldpricetargetsat$1,480/toz,$1,565/tozand$1,690/toz,clearlytheriskisthatthepeakingoldpricesweanticipatein2012mayhavebeenpulledforwardintimeasUSrealinterestrateshavemovedsharplyhigher.
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%3-mostandarddeviationofUS10-yearTIPSyieldsUS10yrTIPSyieldFront-monthgoldprice%perannum2010USD/toz0.
0018320.
5016001.
0013971.
5012202.
0010662.
509313.
008133.
507104.
006202011年1月25日全球高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究22Agriculture:+14.
9%fromDecember1,2010throughJanuary21,2011;+3.
6%ytdthroughJanuary21,2011RisingconcernsoverweatherconditionsintheSouthernHemisphere,whichisnowenteringthekeysummergrowingmonths,hadsupportedcroppriceshigherthroughoutDecembertolevelscloseourpriorforecasts,especiallyforcornandsoybeans.
ThesepoorweatherconditionshaveimpactedmostmajorcropswithdrynessinArgentinajeopardizingthelocalcornandsoybeancrops(seeExhibit23)andfloodsinAustralialikelydamagingthecountry'smillingwheatandcottoncrops.
Exhibit23:ArgentinaprecipitationiswellbelowmedianhistoricallevelsCumulativemonthlyprecipitationinBuenosAires,CordobaandSantaFe;2002-2010window,incentimetersSource:CustomWeatherviaBloomberg,GoldmanSachsGlobalECSResearch.
TheUSDAreportsreleasedlastweekshowedfurtherstrongtighteningincornandsoybeanbalances,bothintheUSandglobally,almostentirelydrivenbydownwardproductionrevisionsinthefaceofsteadydemand.
However,theUSDA'ssupplyrevisionsforSouthernHemispherecropproductionwerelimitedwithmoresurprisingcutsmadetoUScrops.
Whileonaggregate,thetighteningreportedbytheUSDApointstolowerUSandglobalstocks-to-useratiostolevelsclosetoourforecasts,wehadexpectedmostofthetighteningtobedrivenbyfurtherstrengthindemandinthecomingmonthsnotsupplycutsintheUS.
Asaresult,combiningtheUSDA'slowersupplyforecaststoouroutlookforfurtherdemandstrengthpointstoadditionaldeclinesinendingstocks.
SouthernHemisphereweathercreatesrisksoffurthersupplydowngradesandinturntighteningofthecropbalances.
Asaresult,weraisedourcornandsoybeans3-mopriceforecaststo$7.
15/buand$16.
0/buandour6-and12-moforecaststo$6.
75/buand$15.
75/bu,from$5.
85/buand$14.
0/buinourAgricultureUpdate-RaisingourpriceforecastsoncontinuedtighteningincropbalancespublishedJanuary12,2011.
Whilewheatpriceswilllikelybesupportedbytherallyincornand0102030405060OctoberNovemberDecemberJanuaryFebruaryMarch2010/112008/092007/082005/06Medianotheryears2011年1月25日全球高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究23soybeanprices,promptingustoraiseour3-moforecastto$7.
75/buandour6-and12-moforecastto$7.
50/bufrom$7.
0/bu(January12,2011),theUSDAreleasessupportourexpectationthatthewheatmarketisamplysuppliedandthatdeferredwheatpricesaretooelevated,especiallyrelativetocornandsoybeanprices.
AlthoughtheWASDEleftthecottonbalancesmostlyunchanged,wecontinuetoexpectthatnewcropcottonpricesneedtorallyfurthertopreserveacreageintheUS,thecrop'slargestexporter.
ThecontinuedconcomitanttighteningofcornandsoybeanbalancesfurtherraisestheuncertaintyofacreageresponsethisspringintheNorthernHemisphereasmostcropsneedtosecuresufficientacreagetoattempttorebuildinventoriesduringthe2011/12cropyear.
Wefurtherexpectthisuncertaintytosupportcroppricecorrelation(seeExhibit24).
Fornow,wearekeepingourUSacreageprojectionsunchangedwhichpointstoflatsoybeanacreageandaslightincreaseincornacreage.
However,anyfurthertighteningofthesoybeanbalancesonSouthAmericaproductiondowngradeswouldlikelypreventourforecastedincreaseinUScornacreagetomaterialize.
Thiswouldinturnputatriskthelimitedinventorybuildthatweforecastforthe2011/12balancesandraisetheneedfordemandrationinginthefaceofinsufficientsuppliesinourview.
Exhibit24:AcreageuncertaintywillkeeppricecorrelationhighintotheUSplantingseasonAverage3-monthpairwisecorrelationofdailypricereturnsSource:CBOT,GoldmanSachsGlobalECSResearch.
30%40%50%60%70%80%90%Mar-01Mar-02Mar-03Mar-04Mar-05Mar-06Mar-07Mar-08Mar-09Mar-10Averagecorn,soybeanandcottoncorrelationIncreasedcorrelationintoMarch2011年1月25日全球高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究24Livestock:+5.
2%fromDecember1,2010throughJanuary21,2011;+1.
4%ytdthroughJanuary21,2011Despitehigherfeedandinturnlivestockprices,wecurrentlystillexpectthatdomesticandforeigndemandformeatwillcontinuetoimprovein2011asoureconomistsforecastbothstrongerUSeconomicgrowth,whichpointstocontinueddomesticdemandrecovery,aswellstrongEMGDPandincomegrowth,whichshouldsupportUSexports.
Inthefaceofthisstrongdemand,weexpectthathigherfeedpriceswilllikelylimitcattleandhogherdexpansionashighercostsweighonmarginsandspurfarmerstoreducelivestockfeed.
RecentUSDAreleaseshavesupportedthisexpectationwiththequarterlyHogsandPigsinventoryshowingnoincreasethehogherd.
Onthecattleside,theNovembercattleonfeedplacementcameinbelowexpectationsanddownfromlastyearandtheinventoryofcattleonfeedremainsnearmulti-yearlows.
Whilethisoutlookleadsustoremainconstructiveonlivestockpricesin2011,weacknowledgethatneartermincreasedsuppliesmayweighonpricesearlyintheyear.
Specifically,increasesinplacementoffeederin2H10pointtostrongerlivecattlesupplyin1Q11,whileheavierhogcarcasseshavecontributedtocoldstorageinventorybuilds.
Exhibit25:HigherfeedcostshavelimitedUShogherdexpansionThousandheadExhibit26:Althoughplacementsincreasedin2H10,cattleonfeedinventoriesremainlowThousandheadSource:USDA,GoldmanSachsGlobalECSResearch.
Source:USDA,GoldmanSachsGlobalECSResearch.
60,00061,00062,00063,00064,00065,00066,00067,00068,00069,00070,000MarJunSepDec20102009200820079,50010,00010,50011,00011,50012,00012,500JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2010200920082007200620052011年1月25日全球高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究25CommoditiesinanutshellCommoditiesRecentevents/outlookandkeyissues12-mpriceforecastsEnergyWTICrudeOilThedeclineinUSinventoriesoverthepastweekshasactedasanupsidecatalystwhichhelpedtoliftWTIpricesintoourtargeted$85-95/bbltradingrange.
Thisisconsistentwithourviewthattheglobaloilmarkethasbeeninaseasonally-adjusteddeficitsinceMay,andthatweshouldincreasinglyseedeclinesinUSinventoriesasfloatingstoragehasnowdischargedandinventoriesinEuropeandAsiahavebeendrawing.
Inourview,USonshoreinventorieswillcontinuetodeclinetowardsmorenormallevelsoverthecomingmonths.
However,theUSoilmarketitselfhasbecomeincreasinglyfragmentedbythehighandrisinglevelofoilinventoriesinthemid-continent.
Asaresult,WTIhasbeentradingatasignificantdiscounttootherlightsweetcrudes,suchasBrentandLightSweetLouisiana(LLS).
AsthesurplusofoilintheUSmid-continentisnotbeingdrivenbyweakUSdemand,itwilllikelynotbealleviatedbytheongoingrecoveryinUSdemandandrequirearedirectionofpipelineinfrastructuretocarrycrudefromtheUSmid-continenttotheUSGulfCoasttocorrectit.
Asaconsequence,WTIpricescouldcontinuetotradeatadiscounttootherlocalcrudes.
$105.
50/bblBrentCrudeOilBrentcrudeoilpriceshavebeentradingcloseto$100/bbloverthepastdaysasglobalinventoriescontinuedtodecline.
Weexpectthat,onceglobalinventorieshavereachednormallevels,OPECsparecapacitywillstarttobedrawnasglobaloildemandremainsstrong,whichgivessomefurtherupsidepotentialtoBrentpricesinthesecondhalfof2011.
$103.
50/bblRBOBGasolineUSgasolineinventorydrawsandstrongdemandforUSgasolineexportshavelentsupporttogasolinemarginsintherecentperiod.
Particularlynear-datedmarginsagainstWTIhavebeenstrong,asWTIisagaintradingatasteepdiscounttootherlocalcrudessuchasLLS.
However,wecontinuetobelievethatamplerefinerycapacitywillkeepanyrallyinmarginsmutedandshort-lived.
$2.
62/galUSGCHeatingOilDistillatemarginshavebeenwellsupportedbydeclininginventoriesandexceptionallycoldweatherintheUSEastCoast.
However,asUSdistillatestocksstillremainwellabovenormalandevenlastyear'slevels,weexpectthatanyfurtherstrengthindistillatemarginsarelikelytransient.
Goingforward,weexpectthatstrongexportdemandfromLatinAmericaandEuropeforUSdistillateswillkeepheatingoilmarginssupported.
$2.
76/galNYMEXNat.
GasNYMEXnaturalgaspriceshavebeensupportedbycolder-than-normaltemperaturessofarthiswinter,buttheunderlyingbalanceremainsinadeepsurpluscreatedbycontinuedgrowthinshalegasproductionandaweakeconomicrecovery.
DespitealevelingoffinproductionefficiencygainsinaggregateUSshalegasproduction,webelievethatdebottleneckinginwellcompletionservicesandtheimpactofhighoilpricesongasproductioneconomicswillspursignificantgrowthinUSnaturalgasproductionin2011.
WebelievethatUSnaturalgaspriceswillhavetomovelowerin2011and2012inordertocurbnaturalgasproductiongrowth,andmoreimportantly,toincentivizefurtherfuelsubstitutioninthepowergenerationsectortorebalancethemarket.
Consequently,weforecastanaverageNYMEXnaturalgaspriceof$4.
00/mmBtuin2011and$4.
25/mmBtuin2012.
Still,eventakingintoaccountsupplyanddemandresponsestotheselowerprices,themarketremainsvulnerabletoweaker-than-normalweather-relateddemandandfurtherpositiveproductionsurprises,inourview.
$4.
50/mmBtuUKNBPNat.
GasUKNBPnaturalgaspriceshaveperformedwellsofarthiswinter,drivenlargelybyweather-relateddemandacrossNorthernEurope.
PipelineandLNGimportshaverespondedtotheincreaseddemand,butstoragewithdrawalshavealsobeensharperthannormal.
Inaddition,globalLNGmarketsremaintight.
Thistightnessinitiallyresultedfromproducersreducingutilizationratesinliquefactionterminalslastsummerinresponsetoweakpricesin1H2010,whichmadethemarketvulnerabletotheweather-relateddemandspikesthatcharacterizedthelatterhalfofthesummer.
TheLNGproducers'responsetothelowpricesearlierintheyearsuggestsawillingnesstodefendafloorforinternationalgasprices.
Basedonhistoricalresponsesinutilizationratestoprices,webelievethatthisfloorwillbeinthe$7/mmBturange.
Asaresult,weforecastanaverage2011UKNBPpriceof$7.
00/mmBtu(41.
30p/th).
Goinginto2012,weexpectrenewedgrowthofglobaldemandtotightenthemarketrelativeto2011,andour2012UKNBPpriceforecastis$8.
50/mmBtu(47.
50p/th).
44.
70p/thIndustrialMetalsLMEAluminumAluminumpriceshaveperformedstronglyoverthepasteightweeks,surpassing$2,400/mtforthethirdtimesincetherecession,largelyduetoChineseproductiondisruptionsandrisingenergyprices.
Whilewehavebecomeincrementallymorepositiveonaluminumfundamentalsonthebackofupgradestooureconomists'USandglobalGDPforecasts,westillbelievethetightestperiodsinthealuminummarketsoccurredinlate2010,andthattheextremeweathercausingregionalcoalshortagesinChinaandsupplydisruptionsinAustraliawillnottightenthemarkettothepointofdeficits.
Therefore,webelievealuminumcouldlikelytradeintheupperendofourforecastrangeintheneartermat$2,350/mtbutseelittleupsidefromtoday'spricearound$2,500/mt.
Wecontinuetorecommendashortposition.
$2200/mtLMECopperCopperpricesbrokeouttonewnominalall-timehighsinto2011onthebackofsupplydisruptionsinSouthAmerica.
However,whilewehavelittleconcernthatChineseend-demandisslowingrelativetoourforecast,wedobelievethatcurrentmarketsareadequatelysuppliedduringanabnormalseasonaldestockinginChina,andthereforeitistooearlyforpricestospikehigher.
Nevertheless,overthemediumtolongterm,wecontinuetoseegreatestupsideincopperofallthemetalsduetothecombinationoflowerexchangeinventories,robustdemandlargelydrivenbyEMurbanization,andaconstrainedsupplyoutlook.
Althoughexchangeinventoriesremainwell-abovethecritically-lowlevelsthatpersistedformuchofthelate2000spriortotheglobalfinancialcrisis,weexpecttheabovedriverswillbesufficienttodepletetheseinventoriesoverthecourseof2011,forcingthemarketbackintoaperiodofdemandrationingcharacterizedbyextremelevelsofbackwardation.
Further,thisbackwardationwilllikelycomeontopofwell-supportedlong-datedpricesgiventheneedforinvestmentinnewminecapacitytomeetrisingglobaltrenddemand.
Asaresult,wemaintainour12-moaheadcopperpriceforecastof$11,000/mtandbelievethatpricescouldspikesubstantiallyabovetheselevels,mostlikelyinlate2011.
$11000/mtLMENickelWhilenickelpriceshavetrailedtherestofthecomplexovermostof2H10,ithasnowbeenthestrongestperformersincethemid-NovembercorrectionasmarketsentimenthasshiftedtowardsoptimismonthebackofsupplyriskandamorebalancedmarketasaresultofproductionissuesinKwinananickelrefineryandweather-relatedproductionrisksinAustraliaandtheSouthPacific.
However,wedonotexpecttheseproductionriskstobesubstantialaswehavenotheardofanyspecificshortageormeaningfulmovesindeliverypremiumtodate.
Wethereforebelievethecurrentnickelpriceriskisheavilyskewedtothedownsidegivenexcesscapacityinferronickel/NPIandreadilyavailablesuppliesoffull-platecathodesandweoverallexpectreturningValeInconickelsupply,newprojectcommissioningandrampup,andslowingconsumptiongrowthinto2011willpushtheglobalnickelmarketintoasizablesurplusin2011.
$19500/mtLMEZincDespiterecentpricestrength,inpartowingtoenvironmental-relatedmineclosuresinChina,weexpectzinctoremaininanear-termsurplus,drivenbyshort-termsupplygrowth.
However,weexpectamoderatelytighteroutlookonreducedgrowthinconcentrateandscrapavailability,leavingthemarketmorebalancedintheyearahead,andpossiblyswingingtotimesofdeficitoverthecourseof2011.
Wethereforemaintaina12-mozincforecastof$3,100/mt,wellabovethecurrentforwardcurve.
Overthelongerterm,wemaintainthatsubstantialmineinvestmentswillberequiredtokeepupwithdemand.
Asaresult,webelievethatlong-datedpriceswillneedtomovehigher,lendingbroadsupporttozincprices.
$3100/mtCommoditiesRecentevents/outlookandkeyissues12-mpriceforecastsPreciousMetals2011年1月25日全球高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究26LondonGoldWiththeUSFederalReserveconductingasecondroundofquantitativeeasingandlikelykeepingitsshort-termnominalinterestratetargetnearzerothrough2011,weexpectthelowUSrealinterestenvironment,combinedwithcontinuedgold-ETFandCentralBankbuyingwillcontinuetoprovidesupportforgoldprices2011.
However,withthecurrentroundofQEsettoendinJune2011,andourUSeconomicsteamnowforecastingstrongUSeconomicgrowthin2011and2012,weexpectUSrealinterestratestobegintoriseinto2012,likelycausinggoldpricestopeakin2012.
$1690/tozLondonSilverOverthelongrun,silverpricestendtotrackgoldprices.
Thus,oursilverforecastreflectsthehistoricalratiotogold.
$28.
2/tozAgricultureCBOTCornCornpriceshaveralliedoverthepastmonthoncontinuedstrongdemand,especiallyfromethanolandconcernsoverArgentinaproductiondowngrades.
WhiletheUSDAreportedfurthertighteningintheUSandGlobalcornbalancesinitsJanuaryWASDE,weexpectadditionaltighteningaheadandforecastsignificantlyhigherpricestogeneratebothdemandrationingandthenecessaryacreageresponseintheUSnextspring.
675c/buCBOTSoybeanSoybeanpriceshaveralliedoverthepastmonthoncontinuedstrongEMcrushandimportdemandandconcernsoverArgentinaproductiondowngrades.
ThecurrentLaNinaweatherpatterncreatesupsiderisktoourforecastasithashistoricallyhurtSouthAmericanyields.
1575c/buCBOTWheatWheatpricesincreasedoverthepastmonthongrowingsupplyconcernsforAustralia's2010/11production.
Despitethisyear'sdeficitdrivenbyweather-relatedsupplyshocksandourexpectationforhigherwheatfeeddemandawayfromcorn,stocks/usestillremainshighonanhistoricalbasisandwereiterateourforecastforlowerwheatprices,especiallyrelativetocornandsoybeans.
750c/buNYBOTCottonCottonpricesremainedhighlyvolatileoverthepastmonth.
Despiteanexpected14%increaseinglobalcottonproductionin2010/11,strongEMdemandhasputtheglobalcottonmarketinadeficitforthefourthconsecutiveyear.
Asaresult,tightUSandglobalinventorieshavepropellednear-datedcottonfutureshigherandputthecottonfuturescurveinsteepbackwardation,consistentwithourviewthatdemanddestructionneedstotakeplaceinthefaceoflowsupplies.
Asaresult,weforecasthighernewcropcottonpricestomaintainacreageintheUSgivencompetitionfromthesoybeanandcorncrops.
125c/lbNYBOTCoffeeCoffeepricescontinuedtorallytonewhighsinDecemberonconcernsthatglobalsuppliesforhigh-qualityArabicabeanswouldlagdemandforthesecondconsecutiveyeardespitestronggrowthin2010/11productiononBrazil'shigher-yieldinghalfoftheArabicaplanttwo-yearcycle.
Withdemandexpectedtocontinuetogrow,ledbyemergingmarketdemand,theoutlookforlower2011/12productiononBrazil'soffyearwilllikelysupportpricesin2011andwearethereforeraisingour3-mopriceforecastto200cents/lb.
Barringweathershocks,weexpectpricestodeclineto175cents/lbforthenext6-and12-moonanexpectedsupplyresponsetothecurrenthighercoffeeprices.
WenotehoweverthatthecurrentLaNiaweatherpatterncouldfurthersupportpricesasithashistoricallybroughtpoorweathertoArabicagrowingregions.
175c/lbNYBOTCocoaCocoapricesremainedvolatileoverthepastmonthasmarketfocusshiftedbetweentheoutlookforstrongWestAfricanproductionforthenewcropyearstartingOctober1andconcernsthatpoliticalinstabilityinIvoryCoastmaydisruptthecountry'sexports.
Onthesupplyside,thelatestICCOforecastforglobaloutputpointstogrowthof6to8%whileonthedemand,theICCOexpectsthestrongrecoveryincocoagrindingsof5%experiencedin2009toslowto2.
5%inthe12monthsendingSeptember2011.
Onnet,thispointstoamarketsurplusforthe2010/11cropyearandweexpectlowerpriceswitha3-moforecastof$2,700/mtand6-and12-mopriceforecastof$2400/mt,althoughvolatilitymayremainhighneartermonIvoryCoastdevelopments.
Overthelongterm,asdemandcontinuestogrow,theproductionoutlookfortheIvoryCoastwillremainkeyasagingorchards,poorinfrastructureandpoliticalinstabilityhavecurbedproductionandinvestmentoverthepastfewyears.
$2400/mtNYBOTSugarSugarpricescontinuedtorallytonewpeaksinDecemberasuncertaintyaboutIndia'scropandinturnitspotentialexportsremainedhigh,especiallyasfoodinflationispickingupdomestically.
Pricescouldbefurthersupportedearlyin2011onfurthertightnessinthesugarbalanceasChinahasannouncedthatitwillincreasesugarimportstoreplenishreservesinthefaceoflikelylowIndianexports,adelayedThaicrop,Australiancanecrushatitslowestlevelsince1991followingthefloodsandfreshsuppliesfromBrazilnotavailabletillApril.
Weareaccordinglyraisingour3-moforecastto30cents/lbfrom25c/lb.
Howeveraswelooktothe2011/12cropyear,Unica'sinitialindicationssuggestunchangedacreageandproductioninBrazilpointingtoanotherpotentiallylargesugarcrop.
Wealsoexpectfurtherglobalproductionresponsestocurrentelevatedpricesunderaverageweatherconditionsandthereforeseedownsidetocurrentpricesandalthoughweareraisingour6-mopriceforecastto25c/lb,wemaintainour12-mo20c/lbpriceforecast.
20c/lbCMELiveCattleWhilehigherplacementofcattleonfeedin2H10pointtohighersuppliesinearly2011andcouldweighonpricesinthenearterm,weexpecthighfeedpricestoslowtheplacementoffeedercattleandlimitanysignificantcattleherdexpansion.
Onthedemandside,wecontinuetoexpectbothdomesticandforeigndemandtoimproveagainstthesetightersupplies.
Weexpectthisfundamentaloutlooktosupportlivecattlepricesathigherlevels.
110c/lbCMELeanHogLeanhogpricesralliedintherecentperiodonconfirmationthattheUSherdwasnotexpanding.
Whileheaviercarcassesmayweighonpricesinthenearterm,weexpectdomesticandforeigndemandforporktocontinuetoimproveagainstaback-dropoftightsuppliesasweexpecthigherfeedpricestolimitherdexpansion.
Weremainconstructiveona12-mohorizonforleanhogprices.
90c/lbExhibit27:NYMEXWTIforwardcurves$/bblExhibit28:IPEBrentforwardcurves$/bblSource:GoldmanSachs.
Source:GoldmanSachs.
75.
0080.
0085.
0090.
0095.
00100.
00Feb-10May-10Aug-10Nov-10Feb-11May-11Aug-11Nov-11Feb-12May-12Aug-12Nov-1221Jan1121Dec1021Jan1070.
0075.
0080.
0085.
0090.
0095.
00100.
00Feb-10May-10Aug-10Nov-10Feb-11May-11Aug-11Nov-11Feb-12May-12Aug-12Nov-1221Jan1121Dec1021Jan102011年1月25日全球高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究27Exhibit29:NYMEXgasolineforwardcurvesCentspergallonExhibit30:NYMEXheatingoilforwardcurvesCentspergallonSource:GoldmanSachs.
Source:GoldmanSachs.
Exhibit31:IPEgasoilforwardcurves$/mtExhibit32:NYMEXnaturalgasforwardcurves$/mmBtuSource:GoldmanSachs.
Source:GoldmanSachs.
Exhibit33:LMEaluminumforwardcurves$/mtExhibit34:LMEcopperforwardcurves$/mtSource:GoldmanSachs.
Source:GoldmanSachs.
190.
00200.
00210.
00220.
00230.
00240.
00250.
00260.
00270.
00Feb-10May-10Aug-10Nov-10Feb-11May-11Aug-11Nov-11Feb-12May-12Aug-12Nov-1221Jan1121Dec1021Jan10190.
00200.
00210.
00220.
00230.
00240.
00250.
00260.
00270.
00280.
00Feb-10May-10Aug-10Nov-10Feb-11May-11Aug-11Nov-11Feb-12May-12Aug-12Nov-1221Jan1121Dec1021Jan10600.
00640.
00680.
00720.
00760.
00800.
00840.
00880.
00Feb-10May-10Aug-10Nov-10Feb-11May-11Aug-11Nov-11Feb-12May-12Aug-12Nov-1221Jan1121Dec1021Jan103.
904.
404.
905.
405.
906.
406.
907.
40Feb-10May-10Aug-10Nov-10Feb-11May-11Aug-11Nov-11Feb-12May-12Aug-12Nov-1221Jan1121Dec1021Jan102,2002,2502,3002,3502,4002,4502,5002,5502,600Feb-10May-10Aug-10Nov-10Feb-11May-11Aug-11Nov-11Feb-12May-12Aug-12Nov-1221Jan1121Dec1021Jan107,0007,5008,0008,5009,0009,50010,000Feb-10May-10Aug-10Nov-10Feb-11May-11Aug-11Nov-11Feb-12May-12Aug-12Nov-1221Jan1121Dec1021Jan102011年1月25日全球高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究28Exhibit35:LMEnickelforwardcurves$/mtExhibit36:LMEzincforwardcurves$/mtSource:GoldmanSachs.
Source:GoldmanSachs.
Exhibit37:COMEXgoldforwardcurves$/ozExhibit38:COMEXsilverforwardcurvesCents/ozSource:GoldmanSachs.
Source:GoldmanSachs.
Exhibit39:CBOTwheatforwardcurvesCents/bushelExhibit40:CBOTcornforwardcurvesCents/bushelSource:GoldmanSachs.
Source:GoldmanSachs.
16,00017,00018,00019,00020,00021,00022,00023,00024,00025,00026,00027,000Feb-10May-10Aug-10Nov-10Feb-11May-11Aug-11Nov-11Feb-12May-12Aug-12Nov-1221Jan1121Dec1021Jan102200225023002350240024502500Feb-10May-10Aug-10Nov-10Feb-11May-11Aug-11Nov-11Feb-12May-12Aug-12Nov-1221Jan1121Dec1021Jan10105011001150120012501300135014001450Feb-10May-10Aug-10Nov-10Feb-11May-11Aug-11Nov-11Feb-12May-12Aug-12Nov-1221Jan1121Dec1021Jan10160018002000220024002600280030003200Feb-10May-10Aug-10Nov-10Feb-11May-11Aug-11Nov-11Feb-12May-12Aug-12Nov-1221Jan1121Dec1021Jan10425475525575625675725775825875925975Apr-10Jul-10Oct-10Jan-11Apr-11Jul-11Oct-11Jan-12Apr-12Jul-12Oct-12Jan-1321Jan1121Dec1021Jan10300350400450500550600650700Apr-10Jul-10Oct-10Jan-11Apr-11Jul-11Oct-11Jan-12Apr-12Jul-12Oct-12Jan-1321Jan1121Dec1021Jan102011年1月25日全球高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究29Exhibit41:CBOTsoybeanforwardcurvesCents/bushelExhibit42:NYBOTcottonforwardcurvesCents/lbSource:GoldmanSachs.
Source:GoldmanSachs.
Exhibit43:CMElivecattleforwardcurvesCents/lbExhibit44:CMEleanhogforwardcurvesCents/lbSource:GoldmanSachs.
Source:GoldmanSachs.
850950105011501250135014501550Feb-10May-10Aug-10Nov-10Feb-11May-11Aug-11Nov-11Feb-12May-12Aug-12Nov-1221Jan1121Dec1021Jan10557595115135155175Apr-10Jul-10Oct-10Jan-11Apr-11Jul-11Oct-11Jan-12Apr-12Jul-12Oct-12Jan-1321Jan1121Dec1021Jan1080859095100105110115120Feb-10May-10Aug-10Nov-10Feb-11May-11Aug-11Nov-11Feb-12May-12Aug-1221Jan1121Dec1021Jan106065707580859095100Feb-10May-10Aug-10Nov-10Feb-11May-11Aug-11Nov-11Feb-12May-12Aug-1221Jan1121Dec1021Jan102011年1月25日全球高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究30Exhibit45:PerformanceofS&PGSCIEnhancedCommodityIndexandStrategiesthroughJanuary21,2011Note:AsofJanuary21,2011.
Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalECSResearch.
IndexandstrategiesDollarBaseDate21-Jan-111-Month3-Month12-MonthWeight=100Level200920102011YTDChangeChangeChangeS&PGSCIEnhancedIndex100.
00Dec-69721.
221.
612.
21.
33.
013.
617.
6Energy65.
18Dec-821453.
423.
85.
91.
43.
114.
311.
9Petroleum57.
33Dec-821611.
531.
99.
51.
42.
914.
516.
2IndustrialMetals6.
43Dec-76289.
982.
716.
5-1.
70.
67.
316.
3PreciousMetals3.
82Dec-72376.
525.
234.
5-6.
5-3.
93.
124.
5Agricultural18.
80Dec-69168.
83.
633.
73.
65.
018.
044.
5Livestock5.
78Dec-69201.
1-11.
318.
51.
44.
48.
017.
8CommoditiesEnergyWTI31.
98Dec-861869.
331.
97.
5-0.
51.
512.
112.
1Brent12.
69Jan-991696.
327.
412.
03.
04.
718.
220.
8Unlead/RBOBGas3.
39Dec-871694.
477.
716.
31.
83.
822.
122.
6HeatingOil4.
82Dec-821006.
419.
09.
73.
65.
115.
118.
9Gasoil4.
44Jan-991144.
423.
511.
46.
04.
114.
023.
3NaturalGas7.
85Dec-93244.
7-34.
4-35.
61.
86.
210.
3-34.
4IndustrialMetalsAluminum2.
58Dec-9095.
233.
75.
7-2.
5-1.
11.
92.
9Copper2.
29Dec-76804.
8136.
329.
5-1.
70.
814.
129.
1Lead0.
33Jan-95600.
0132.
40.
5-4.
5-0.
1-2.
13.
4Nickel0.
68Dec-92510.
555.
332.
35.
76.
311.
037.
0Zinc0.
56Dec-90156.
698.
6-9.
0-5.
7-0.
7-7.
0-8.
3PreciousMetalsGold3.
49Dec-77354.
123.
028.
8-5.
7-3.
51.
020.
7Silver0.
33Dec-72562.
447.
882.
0-11.
3-6.
718.
355.
2AgricultureCBOTWheat5.
20Dec-69129.
1-24.
423.
24.
47.
516.
338.
2KBOTWheat1.
23Jan-99115.
7-23.
941.
75.
88.
923.
159.
6Corn4.
93Dec-69142.
6-9.
331.
94.
99.
315.
052.
8Soybeans3.
19Dec-69426.
119.
333.
80.
75.
615.
848.
1Cotton1.
06Dec-7656.
132.
294.
58.
4-1.
439.
7121.
8Sugar1.
84Dec-72343.
786.
320.
50.
7-2.
114.
111.
7Coffee0.
90Dec-8082.
910.
767.
70.
02.
818.
364.
3Cocoa0.
45Dec-83129.
118.
6-12.
44.
97.
011.
4-11.
9LivestockLiveCattle3.
36Dec-69204.
0-5.
619.
40.
42.
96.
219.
0FeederCattle0.
63Jan-02144.
3-3.
919.
71.
32.
111.
317.
5LeanHogs1.
79Dec-75202.
7-22.
816.
73.
27.
710.
515.
8TotalReturns(%)2011年1月25日全球高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究31Exhibit46:PerformanceofequityandbondtotalreturnsindicesthroughDecember31,2010Note:AsofDecember31,2010.
Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalECSResearch.
TotalReturnsinUSD(%)31-Dec-101-Month3-Month12-MonthIndicesLevel200820092010ChangeChangeChangeEquityIndices(Quoted)USS&P5002,114(37.
00)26.
4615.
066.
6810.
2715.
06CanadaS&P/TSXComposite36,481(46.
44)59.
0324.
087.
6012.
7124.
08UKFTSE1003,854(48.
23)43.
019.
197.
385.
029.
19FranceCAC407,526(43.
27)31.
67(5.
98)8.
671.
18(5.
98)GermanyDAX6,914(43.
31)27.
838.
526.
548.
638.
52JapanTopix1,127(26.
79)4.
7215.
937.
9211.
2915.
93HK/ChinaHangSeng48,186(46.
07)56.
578.
300.
033.
088.
30AustraliaS&PASX20034,519(51.
12)76.
7615.
7610.
8010.
3815.
76SingaporeSTI3,551(47.
12)75.
2924.
224.
994.
8524.
22Region(USD)AllCountryWorldIndex546(41.
85)35.
4113.
217.
358.
2813.
21TheWorldIndex(DM)4,290(40.
33)30.
7912.
347.
398.
5912.
34EAFE5,226(43.
06)32.
468.
218.
116.
198.
21Europe779(47.
30)38.
505.
078.
404.
255.
07EmergingMarkets(EM)2,062(53.
18)79.
0219.
207.
156.
3219.
20Country(USD)USA4,407(37.
14)27.
1415.
456.
6910.
5215.
45Canada6,406(45.
15)57.
3621.
217.
7412.
1121.
21France6,001(42.
71)33.
26(3.
23)8.
741.
78(3.
23)Germany5,494(45.
50)26.
569.
327.
009.
099.
32Italy1,065(49.
20)28.
00(14.
07)8.
79(2.
55)(14.
07)Netherlands12,821(47.
88)43.
042.
1710.
881.
722.
17Spain4,337(40.
06)45.
07(21.
13)9.
66(8.
28)(21.
13)Switzerland9,868(29.
90)26.
6112.
869.
057.
5212.
86UnitedKingdom6,118(48.
32)43.
378.
807.
304.
868.
80Japan4,637(29.
11)6.
3915.
597.
6211.
6315.
59HongKong41,298(51.
21)60.
1523.
230.
654.
7423.
23Singapore10,987(47.
34)74.
0022.
165.
065.
4322.
16China99(50.
83)62.
634.
83(0.
71)0.
634.
83Korea593(55.
07)72.
0627.
1511.
0811.
4327.
15RegionWorld86610.
892.
554.
310.
93(2.
86)4.
31EuropeanUnion1895.
215.
50(6.
21)1.
21(6.
11)(6.
21)G785213.
910.
756.
300.
95(2.
17)6.
30CountryUSA68715.
08(4.
12)5.
16(1.
91)(2.
91)5.
16Canada1,171(10.
47)14.
5111.
342.
411.
2511.
34UnitedKingdom1,178(18.
22)10.
232.
97(0.
85)(5.
02)2.
97France1,4407.
604.
10(2.
27)0.
81(5.
59)(2.
27)Germany1,0788.
053.
08(1.
37)0.
87(5.
18)(1.
37)Italy1,3911.
819.
46(7.
88)1.
18(6.
68)(7.
88)Netherlands1,1476.
595.
07(1.
41)1.
10(5.
12)(1.
41)Switzerland91916.
954.
9014.
846.
563.
0914.
84Japan94630.
10(1.
83)16.
103.
831.
2716.
10CitigroupWorldGovernmentBondIndices(USD)MSCIEquityIndices2011年1月25日全球高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究32分析师申明我们,杰夫·可瑞、DavidGreely、AllisonF.
Nathan、DamienCourvalin、JoshuaCrumb、SamanthaDart、JohanSpetz、陈寅华,在此申明,本报告所表述的所有观点准确反映了我们的个人看法,没有受到公司业务或客户关系因素的影响.
高盛信息披露全球产品;分发机构高盛全球投资研究部在全球范围内为高盛的客户并根据某些合同安排制作并分发研究产品.
高盛分布在其全球各办事处的分析师提供行业和公司的股票研究,以及宏观经济、货币、商品及投资组合策略的研究.
本研究报告在澳大利亚由GoldmanSachs&PartnersAustraliaPtyLtd(ABN21006797897)代表高盛分发;股票及其他研究在加拿大由高盛集团分发;在德国由高盛集团德国公司分发;在香港由高盛(亚洲)有限责任公司分发;在印度由高盛(印度)证券私人有限公司分发;在日本由高盛证券株式会社分发;在韩国由高盛(亚洲)有限责任公司首尔分公司分发;在新西兰由GoldmanSachs&PartnersNewZealandLimited代表高盛分发;在俄罗斯由高盛OOO分发;在新加坡由高盛(新加坡)私人公司.
(公司号:198602165W);在美国由高盛集团分发.
高盛国际已批准本研究报告在英国和欧盟分发.
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除了与高盛相关的披露,本研究报告是基于我们认为可靠的目前已公开的信息,但我们不保证该信息的准确性和完整性,客户也不应该依赖该信息是准确和完整的.
我们会适时地更新我们的研究,但各种规定可能会阻止我们这样做.
除了一些定期出版的行业报告之外,绝大多数报告是在分析师认为适当的时候不定期地出版.
高盛是一家集投资银行、投资管理和证券经纪业务于一身的全球性综合服务公司.
高盛全球投资研究部所研究的大部分公司与我们保持着投资银行业务和其它业务关系.
美国证券经纪交易商高盛是SIPC的成员(http://www.
sipc.
org).
我们的销售人员、交易员和其它专业人员可能会向我们的客户及我们的自营交易部提供与本研究报告中的观点截然相反的口头或书面市场评论或交易策略.
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我们以及我们的关联机构、高级职员、董事和雇员,不包括股票分析师和信贷分析师,将不时地对本研究报告所涉及的证券或衍生工具持有多头或空头头寸,担任上述证券或衍生工具的交易对手,或买卖上述证券或衍生工具.
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本报告不构成个人投资建议,也没有考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需求.
客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况,以及(若有必要)寻求专家的意见,包括税务意见.
本报告中提及的投资价格和价值以及这些投资带来的收入可能会波动.
过去的表现并不代表未来的表现,未来的回报也无法保证,投资者可能会损失本金.
外汇汇率波动有可能对某些投资的价值或价格或来自这一投资的收入产生不良影响.
那些涉及期货、期权及其它衍生工具的交易,因其包括重大的市场风险,因此并不适合所有投资者.
投资者可以向高盛销售代表取得或通过http://www.
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jsp取得当前的期权披露文件.
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高华证券信息披露一般披露本报告在中国由高华证券分发.
高华证券具备证券投资咨询业务资格.
本研究报告仅供我们的客户使用.
本研究报告是基于我们认为可靠的目前已公开的信息,但我们不保证该信息的准确性和完整性,客户也不应该依赖该信息是准确和完整的.
我们会适时地更新我们的研究,但各种规定可能会阻止我们这样做.
除了一些定期出版的行业报告之外,绝大多数报告是在分析师认为适当的时候不定期地出版.
高盛高华为高华证券的关联机构,从事投资银行业务.
高华证券、高盛高华及它们的关联机构与本报告中涉及的大部分公司保持着投资银行业务和其它业务关系.
我们的销售人员、交易员和其它专业人员可能会向我们的客户及我们的自营交易部提供与本研究报告中的观点截然相反的口头或书面市场评论或交易策略.
我们的自营交易部和投资业务部可能会做出与本报告的建议或表达的意见不一致的投资决策.
高华证券及其关联机构、高级职员、董事和雇员,不包括股票分析师和信贷分析师,将不时地对本研究报告所涉及的证券或衍生工具持有多头或空头头寸,担任上述证券或衍生工具的交易对手,或买卖上述证券或衍生工具.
2011年1月25日全球高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究33在任何要约出售股票或征求购买股票要约的行为为非法的地区,本报告不构成该等出售要约或征求购买要约.
本报告不构成个人投资建议,也没有考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需求.
客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况,以及(若有必要)寻求专家的意见,包括税务意见.
本报告中提及的投资价格和价值以及这些投资带来的收入可能会波动.
过去的表现并不代表未来的表现,未来的回报也无法保证,投资者可能会损失本金.
外汇汇率波动有可能对某些投资的价值或价格或来自这一投资的收入产生不良影响.
那些涉及期货、期权及其它衍生工具的交易,因其包括重大的市场风险,因此并不适合所有投资者.
投资者可以向高华销售代表取得或通过http://www.
theocc.
com/about/publications/character-risks.
jsp取得当前的期权披露文件.
对于包含多重期权买卖的期权策略结构产品,例如,期权差价结构产品,其交易成本可能较高.
与交易相关的文件将根据要求提供.
版权所有2011北京高华证券有限责任公司未经北京高华证券有限责任公司事先书面同意,本材料的任何部分均不得(i)以任何方式制作任何形式的拷贝、复印件或复制品,或(ii)再次分发.