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MonthlyHousingMarketBulletin1March2016HCASpatialandMarketIntelligenceHCAHousingMarketBulletinMarch2016SUMMARYHouseprices:Thetrendforaveragehousepricechangecontinuestobesteadygrowth.
AllEnglishregionsarenowseeinggrowth,albeitrelativelyslowlyintheNorthandstronglyintheSouthEast,theEastandinLondon.
Housingmarket:Theseasonallyadjustednumberofresidentialsaleshasgenerallybeenincreasingsteadilyformorethanayear.
Grossmortgagelendinglevelsarehigherthanayearbefore.
Construction:Numbersofresidentialplanningapprovalshaveincreased,followingadropearlyin2015.
Newordersforconstructionareuponayearago.
Economy:Theemploymentrateof74.
1%isthejointhighestratesincecomparablerecordsbeganin1971.
Consumerpriceinflationremainsjustoverzero.
HOUSEPRICESONSmix-adjustedhousepriceindices(UK)http://www.
ons.
gov.
uk/ons/rel/hpi/house-price-index/index.
htmlLandRegistry(England&Wales)http://www.
landregistry.
gov.
uk/public/house-prices-and-salesNationwide(UK)www.
nationwide.
co.
uk/hpi/Halifax(UK)http://www.
lloydsbankinggroup.
com/media1/economic_insight/halifax_house_price_index_page.
aspHometrack(UK)http://www.
hometrack.
com/uk/insight/uk-cities-house-price-index/HousepricesdatasourceDate%changeoverprevious:1month3months1yearONSJan160.
9%1.
8%7.
9%ONS(UK,exclLondon)Jan160.
9%1.
0%6.
9%LandRegistryJan162.
5%3.
3%7.
1%NationwideFeb160.
3%1.
4%4.
8%HalifaxFeb16-1.
4%3.
0%9.
7%HometrackFeb160.
7%2.
5%8.
2%Housepriceindicatorsvarydependingontheirmethodologyandsampling:ONSandtheLandRegistryarebasedoncompletionsdata.
TheLandRegistrydataisthemostcomprehensive,asitincludesallpropertysales,includingcashbuyers.
NationwideandHalifaxarebasedontheirownmortgageoffers.
Hometrackisbasedonasurveyofestateagentswhichincludestheagents'opinionofachievablesellingprices.
Halifax,NationwideandLandRegistrydataareseasonallyadjusted.
MonthlyHousingMarketBulletin2March2016HCASpatialandMarketIntelligenceHOUSINGMARKETHousingtransactionsTherewere83,160residentialpropertytransactionsinEnglandinFebruary2016,whichis21.
6%higherthanoneyearearlier.
Theserieshighwas136,790inAugust2007,andthelowpointwas34,750inJanuary2009.
Therewereatotalof1,075,670transactionsinEnglandintheyeartotheendofFebruary2016.
Thisis3.
9%higherthanintheprevious12months.
Despiteaseasonaldipinsales,theseasonallyadjustedmonthlytotalismovingstronglyupwards.
http://www.
hmrc.
gov.
uk/statistics/transactions.
htmHomelessness14,470householdswereacceptedashomelessbyEnglishlocalauthoritiesbetweenOctoberandDecember2015.
Thisis5.
8%higherthanthesamequarterin2014.
Therewere56,510acceptancesoverthe12monthperiodQ12015–Q42015,whichisapproximately5.
8%greaterthanthetotalfortheprevious12months.
https://www.
gov.
uk/government/statistical-data-sets/live-tables-on-homelessnessRighttobuyInOct-Dec2015localauthoritiessoldanestimated3,250dwellingsundertheRighttoBuyscheme;adecreaseof1%fromthesamequarterof2014.
Theaveragereceiptperdwellingsoldinthequarterwas80,000,comparedto75,000inthesamequarterof2014.
https://www.
gov.
uk/government/collections/social-housing-sales-including-right-to-buy-and-transfersMortgagesCouncilofMortgageLendersdataonmortgagemarketgrowth(newloansforhousepurchase):TypeofbuyerJan2016ChangefromJan15FirsttimebuyersNumber21,4006.
5%m3,30013.
8%HomemoversNumber24,80010.
9%m5,10010.
9%BuytoLetNumber9,50021.
8%m1,40040.
0%Grossmortgagelendingreachedanestimated17.
6bninFebruary.
Thisis30%higherthanFebruary2015.
http://www.
cml.
org.
uk/cml/media/pressMortgageaffordabilityCMLresearchshowsthatmortgagerepaymenttermsarecontinuingtogetlonger.
Nearly60%offirst-timebuyersnowtakeoutaloanlasting>25years.
Thetrendtowardslongertermborrowingalsoextendstohomemovers,andthoseremortgaging.
Averagehousepricegrowthhasexceededaverageincomegrowth.
TheFinancialPolicyCommitteehasintroducednewlimitsonborrowingathigherincomemultiples.
So,althoughpensionfreedomsandthefactthatpeoplearelivinglongerwillbeinfluences,themainreasonforlengtheningmortgagetermsseemstobeborrowersstretchingtheirincomestogetonthehousingladder,https://www.
cml.
org.
uk/news/news-and-views/affordability-bites/MonthlyHousingMarketBulletin3March2016HCASpatialandMarketIntelligenceHOUSEBUILDINGDevelopmentlandvalueKnightFrankresearchhasestimatedthataveragegreenfielddevelopmentlandpricesacrossEnglandcontinuedtoslipbackinthethirdquarteramidaslightlylessactiveappetiteforsitesamongdevelopersandincreasedcostofdevelopment.
GreenfielddevelopmentlandpricesinEnglandslippedby0.
2%inthequarter,takingtheannualchangeinpricesto-2.
8%.
DevelopmentlandpricesinprimecentralLondonwereunchangedinQ3,takingtheannualrateofgrowthto7.
4%.
http://content.
knightfrank.
com/research/161/documents/en/q3-2015-3353.
pdfHousingpipelineTheHBF/GleniganHousingPipelineReportshowedthatresidentialplanningapprovalsrecoveredduringthethirdquarterof2015afterthesharpdropinQ1.
64,900residentialunitswereapprovedduringQ32015,whichwasaround9%higherthanayearbefore.
Therewereincreasesinthenumberofbothprivateandsocialhousingunitapprovals.
Housingschemesoftenormoreunitsaccountedfor85%ofapprovals;theremainderbeingonsmallerprojectsincludingself-buildschemes,homesincludedwithinnon-residentialschemes,andtheconversionofnon-residentialproperties.
OverallunitapprovalsinGreatBritainduringthefirstninemonthswere1%downonayearearlier.
Thisdeclinefollowsthreeconsecutiveyearsofannualgrowthandislargelyattributabletoaweaksecondquarter.
http://www.
hbf.
co.
uk/library/publications-reports/housing-pipeline-report/HousebuildersForfinancialinformationonhousebuildersthatarelistedontheLondonStockExchangepleasetrythislink:http://www.
londonstockexchange.
com/prices-and-markets/stocks/stocks-and-prices.
htmCONSTRUCTIONConstructionindustry:newordersTotalnewordersfortheconstructionindustryinOctober-December2015wereestimatedtohaveincreasedby1.
5%fromthesamequarterin2014.
http://www.
ons.
gov.
uk/ons/rel/construction/output-in-the-construction-industry/index.
htmlConstructionindustry:outputInQuarter4(October-December)2015,outputintheconstructionindustrywasestimatedtohavedecreasedby0.
4%comparedwithQuarter3.
Downwardpressureinthequartercamefromrepairandmaintenancewhichdecreasedby1.
4%.
Thiswasoffsetbyanincreaseof0.
2%inallnewwork.
Outputwasestimatedtohaveincreasedby0.
4%comparedtoQ42014.
Whencomparingtheannual2015datawith2014,outputintheconstructionindustrywasestimatedtohaveincreasedby3.
4%.
Allnewworkincreasedby6.
8%whilerepairandmaintenancedecreasedby2.
2%.
http://www.
ons.
gov.
uk/ons/rel/construction/output-in-the-construction-industry/index.
htmlMonthlyHousingMarketBulletin4March2016HCASpatialandMarketIntelligenceTHEECONOMYInflationTheConsumerPricesIndex(CPI)roseby0.
3%intheyeartoFebruary2016,thesamerateasintheyeartoJanuary2016.
Thelargestdownwardcontributioncamefromthetransportsector,frompricechangesforitemssuchasroadpassengertransport,second-handcarsandbicycles.
Risingfoodprices,particularlyforvegetables,offsetthis.
CPIH,themeasureofUKconsumerpriceinflationthatalsoincludesowneroccupiers'housingcosts,grewby0.
6%intheyeartoFebruary2016,unchangedfromJanuary.
http://www.
ons.
gov.
uk/ons/rel/cpi/consumer-price-indices/index.
htmlInterestratesUKgiltyieldsat24March2016,wereasfollows:MaturityYieldCurrent1monthago10year1.
43%1.
34%20year2.
16%2.
11%30year2.
31%2.
29%http://markets.
ft.
com/Research/Markets/BondsForecastsDatafromHMTreasury'sMarch2016compilationofindependentforecastsfortheUKeconomyispresentedbelow.
Medianforecast(annual,unlessstatedotherwise)%changeinyear20162017GDPgrowth2.
0%2.
2%CPIinflation,Q41.
0%1.
8%RPIinflation,Q42.
1%3.
0%Averageearnings2.
8%3.
3%OfficialBankRate0.
6%1.
3%Housepriceinflation,Q46.
0%5.
0%Realhouseholddisposableincome2.
5%2.
0%LFSunemployment,Q45.
0%4.
9%https://www.
gov.
uk/government/collections/data-forecastsEmploymentandunemploymentInNovember2015-January2016,74.
1%ofpeopleagedfrom16to64wereinwork.
Thisisthejointhighestratesincecomparablerecordsbeganin1971.
Theunemploymentratewas5.
1%,downfrom5.
7%forayearearlier.
Theratehasgenerallybeenfallingforfouryears.
http://www.
ons.
gov.
uk/ons/rel/lms/labour-market-statistics/index.
htmlHomesandCommunitiesAgency,SpatialandMarketIntelligenceIfyouhaveanycomments,questionsorfeedbackaboutthisbulletinwewouldlovetohearfromyou.
PleasecontactusatMarket.
Intelligence@hca.
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