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ContentslistsavailableatScienceDirectMarinePollutionBulletinjournalhomepage:www.
elsevier.
com/locate/marpolbulCoralresponsestooceanwarmingandacidication:ImplicationsforfuturedistributionofcoralreefsintheSouthChinaSeaXiangchengYuana,b,YajuanGuoa,b,Wei-junCaid,HuiHuanga,b,c,,WeihuaZhoua,b,c,,ShengLiua,baCASKeyLaboratoryofTropicalMarineBio-resourcesandEcology,SouthChinaSeaInstituteofOceanology,ChineseAcademyofSciences,Guangzhou,ChinabGuangdongProvincialKeyLaboratoryofAppliedMarineBiology,SouthChinaSeaInstituteofOceanology,ChineseAcademyofSciences,Guangzhou,ChinacTropicalMarineBiologicalResearchStationinHainan,ChineseAcademyofSciences,Sanya,ChinadSchoolofMarineScienceandPolicy,UniversityofDelaware,Newark,DE19716,USAARTICLEINFOKeywords:CoralWarmingAcidicationRefugiaTheSouthChinaSeaABSTRACTTheannualseasurfacetemperatureincreasedatarateof0.
038to0.
074°C/yearinrecentdecade,andpHdecreasedatarateof0.
012–0.
014/yearintwocoastalwatersoftheSouthChinaSea.
Therefore,acultureexperimentwasconductedtostudytheeectsofacidicationandwarmingoncoralcalcicationrates.
ThecalcicationofthreecoralspeciesweresignicantlyreducedduringtheexposuretoelevatedCO2,whileotherthreecoralspecieswerenotsignicantlyaected.
ThereefcoralPocilloporadamicorniswasresistanttohighCO2,butwasnotabletosurviveduringtheexposureto33°Cinourcultureexperiments.
Ourndingssuggestedthatsomecoralsmightnotsurviveintropicalareasifcoralcouldnotadapttowarmingrapidly,andsubtropicalcoastalwaterswithtemperatureof1iftherateofpHdecreaseis0.
0003/year,aspredictedbytheIPCC(Fig.
3B).
3.
2.
Cultureexperiments:responsesofcoralcalcicationtoelevatedtemperatureandCO2Inacidicationexperiments,thecalcicationratesofF.
complanata(massivecoralspecies),M.
digitataandAcroporahyacinthus(branchingcoral)weresignicantlylowerfollowingexposuretoelevatedCO2(p0.
05)(Fig.
4A).
CoralcalcicationofP.
damicornisdecreasedwhentemperatureincreasedto29and31°C(p0.
05).
IntreatmentsofT=31°CandpH=7.
4,coralcalcicationbecamenegative.
AsignicantinteractionofpHandtemperaturewasobservedforcalcicationrates(p0.
05),thecombinedeectsofhighCO2andtem-peratureresultedinthedecreasesofcalcicationrates(Fig.
4B).
TheinteractiveeectsoftemperatureandpHoncoralcalcicationwasobservedinP.
damicornis,especiallywhenpH=7.
4andT=31°C(Fig.
4B).
PreviousstudiesalsohaveshownthatthenegativeeectsofelevatedCO2oncalcicationareoftenexacerbatedwhentemperatureissimultaneouslyincreased(Reynaudetal.
,2003;Rodolfometalpa,Fig.
4.
A)theresponsesofcoralcalcicationatpH=8.
1and7.
7.
Coralspecies1–6areleafcoralspecies(Pavonadecussata),massivecoralspecies(Favitescomplanata,andPoritesnigrescens)andbranchingcoralspecies(Montiporadigitate,AcroporaFormosa,andAcroporahyacinthus)respectively.
B)theresponsesofPocilloporadamicornisatpH=8.
1,7.
7and7.
4andtemperature=27,29and31°C.
*denotesp<0.
05.
Fig.
5.
Temperaturevariationsobtainedevery15mininLuhuitouBayinSanyacityduring2012–2013withatemperaturelogger(OnsetHoboProv2).
X.
Yuanetal.
MarinePollutionBulletin138(2019)241–2482462011),althoughthiseectmaybeabsent(LangdonandAtkinson,2005)orevenreversed(MuehllehnerandEdmunds,2008)inotherstudies;furtherresearchisthusrequiredtobetterunderstandthein-teractiveeectsoftemperatureandpHoncoralcalcicationintheSCS.
Nevertheless,theconclusionsdrawnfromourincubationexperimentsandmostpreviousstudieshavebeenbasedonthedecreasesinpHby~0.
3attheendofthiscentury,aspredictedbytheIPCC;however,coralreefsinthefuturemaybesubjectedtomoreacidicseawaterintheSCS.
Insummary,thereef-buildingcoralsintropicalwaterswillbesubjectedtohighaveragetemperatures(31–34°C)attheendofthiscenturyintheSCS,whichmayexceedtheirrangeoftolerance.
However,reefdevelopmentinsubtropicalwatersmaybelimitedbyfutureseawateracidity—thepHdecreasedatratesof0.
012–0.
014peryear,andΩisprojectedtobe<1before2060.
ItisthusimportanttakemeasuretoprotectthecoralreefsinsubtropicalareasandamelioratethedecreaseinpHbyimplementingdischargeplanningtoreduceor-ganicmatterinputintooceanwatersintheseareas.
Localfactorsin-cludingwaterpollution,overexploitation,andhabitatloss,whichwerenotinvestigatedinthepresentstudy,complicatedthepredictionofcoralhabitatsattheendofthiscentury.
AcknowledgementsWeacknowledgesupportfromStrategicPriorityResearchProgramoftheChineseAcademyofSciences(GrantNo.
XDA13020403)andNationalKeyR&DProgramofChina(2017YFC0506301).
ThankLaurenceJ.
McCookandYongliGaofortheirvaluablecomments.
AppendixA.
SupplementarydataSupplementarydatatothisarticlecanbefoundonlineathttps://doi.
org/10.
1016/j.
marpolbul.
2018.
11.
053.
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MarinePollutionBulletin138(2019)241–248248
elsevier.
com/locate/marpolbulCoralresponsestooceanwarmingandacidication:ImplicationsforfuturedistributionofcoralreefsintheSouthChinaSeaXiangchengYuana,b,YajuanGuoa,b,Wei-junCaid,HuiHuanga,b,c,,WeihuaZhoua,b,c,,ShengLiua,baCASKeyLaboratoryofTropicalMarineBio-resourcesandEcology,SouthChinaSeaInstituteofOceanology,ChineseAcademyofSciences,Guangzhou,ChinabGuangdongProvincialKeyLaboratoryofAppliedMarineBiology,SouthChinaSeaInstituteofOceanology,ChineseAcademyofSciences,Guangzhou,ChinacTropicalMarineBiologicalResearchStationinHainan,ChineseAcademyofSciences,Sanya,ChinadSchoolofMarineScienceandPolicy,UniversityofDelaware,Newark,DE19716,USAARTICLEINFOKeywords:CoralWarmingAcidicationRefugiaTheSouthChinaSeaABSTRACTTheannualseasurfacetemperatureincreasedatarateof0.
038to0.
074°C/yearinrecentdecade,andpHdecreasedatarateof0.
012–0.
014/yearintwocoastalwatersoftheSouthChinaSea.
Therefore,acultureexperimentwasconductedtostudytheeectsofacidicationandwarmingoncoralcalcicationrates.
ThecalcicationofthreecoralspeciesweresignicantlyreducedduringtheexposuretoelevatedCO2,whileotherthreecoralspecieswerenotsignicantlyaected.
ThereefcoralPocilloporadamicorniswasresistanttohighCO2,butwasnotabletosurviveduringtheexposureto33°Cinourcultureexperiments.
Ourndingssuggestedthatsomecoralsmightnotsurviveintropicalareasifcoralcouldnotadapttowarmingrapidly,andsubtropicalcoastalwaterswithtemperatureof1iftherateofpHdecreaseis0.
0003/year,aspredictedbytheIPCC(Fig.
3B).
3.
2.
Cultureexperiments:responsesofcoralcalcicationtoelevatedtemperatureandCO2Inacidicationexperiments,thecalcicationratesofF.
complanata(massivecoralspecies),M.
digitataandAcroporahyacinthus(branchingcoral)weresignicantlylowerfollowingexposuretoelevatedCO2(p0.
05)(Fig.
4A).
CoralcalcicationofP.
damicornisdecreasedwhentemperatureincreasedto29and31°C(p0.
05).
IntreatmentsofT=31°CandpH=7.
4,coralcalcicationbecamenegative.
AsignicantinteractionofpHandtemperaturewasobservedforcalcicationrates(p0.
05),thecombinedeectsofhighCO2andtem-peratureresultedinthedecreasesofcalcicationrates(Fig.
4B).
TheinteractiveeectsoftemperatureandpHoncoralcalcicationwasobservedinP.
damicornis,especiallywhenpH=7.
4andT=31°C(Fig.
4B).
PreviousstudiesalsohaveshownthatthenegativeeectsofelevatedCO2oncalcicationareoftenexacerbatedwhentemperatureissimultaneouslyincreased(Reynaudetal.
,2003;Rodolfometalpa,Fig.
4.
A)theresponsesofcoralcalcicationatpH=8.
1and7.
7.
Coralspecies1–6areleafcoralspecies(Pavonadecussata),massivecoralspecies(Favitescomplanata,andPoritesnigrescens)andbranchingcoralspecies(Montiporadigitate,AcroporaFormosa,andAcroporahyacinthus)respectively.
B)theresponsesofPocilloporadamicornisatpH=8.
1,7.
7and7.
4andtemperature=27,29and31°C.
*denotesp<0.
05.
Fig.
5.
Temperaturevariationsobtainedevery15mininLuhuitouBayinSanyacityduring2012–2013withatemperaturelogger(OnsetHoboProv2).
X.
Yuanetal.
MarinePollutionBulletin138(2019)241–2482462011),althoughthiseectmaybeabsent(LangdonandAtkinson,2005)orevenreversed(MuehllehnerandEdmunds,2008)inotherstudies;furtherresearchisthusrequiredtobetterunderstandthein-teractiveeectsoftemperatureandpHoncoralcalcicationintheSCS.
Nevertheless,theconclusionsdrawnfromourincubationexperimentsandmostpreviousstudieshavebeenbasedonthedecreasesinpHby~0.
3attheendofthiscentury,aspredictedbytheIPCC;however,coralreefsinthefuturemaybesubjectedtomoreacidicseawaterintheSCS.
Insummary,thereef-buildingcoralsintropicalwaterswillbesubjectedtohighaveragetemperatures(31–34°C)attheendofthiscenturyintheSCS,whichmayexceedtheirrangeoftolerance.
However,reefdevelopmentinsubtropicalwatersmaybelimitedbyfutureseawateracidity—thepHdecreasedatratesof0.
012–0.
014peryear,andΩisprojectedtobe<1before2060.
ItisthusimportanttakemeasuretoprotectthecoralreefsinsubtropicalareasandamelioratethedecreaseinpHbyimplementingdischargeplanningtoreduceor-ganicmatterinputintooceanwatersintheseareas.
Localfactorsin-cludingwaterpollution,overexploitation,andhabitatloss,whichwerenotinvestigatedinthepresentstudy,complicatedthepredictionofcoralhabitatsattheendofthiscentury.
AcknowledgementsWeacknowledgesupportfromStrategicPriorityResearchProgramoftheChineseAcademyofSciences(GrantNo.
XDA13020403)andNationalKeyR&DProgramofChina(2017YFC0506301).
ThankLaurenceJ.
McCookandYongliGaofortheirvaluablecomments.
AppendixA.
SupplementarydataSupplementarydatatothisarticlecanbefoundonlineathttps://doi.
org/10.
1016/j.
marpolbul.
2018.
11.
053.
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