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AgendaFOREIGNHOLDINGSOFUSTREASURIESANDTREASURYYIELDSXxxNovember2012STRICTLYPRIVATEANDCONFIDENTIALTerryBeltonACACIndicatescertifyinganalyst.
Seelastpageforanalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures.
RYYIELDSTermpremiumestimatesfromarbitrage-freepricingmodelshavesignificantmeasurementerrors;theytendtoattributemostofthevariabilityininterestratestochangesintermpremium5YforwardOISvs.
Kim-Wrightexpected5Yforwardspot;%5YforwardOISvs.
Kim-Wrightexpected5Yforwardspot;%FOREIGNHOLDINGSOFUSTREASURIESANDTREASUR1RYYIELDSFOMCrateguidancehashadalargeimpactonforwardsbutlittleimpactonshortrateexpectationsderivedfromarbitrage-freepricingmodelsKim-Wrightexpectedshortratevs.
forwardOISaroundFOMCrateguidanceKim-Wrightexpectedshortratevs.
forwardOISaroundFOMCrateguidance5-yearTreasuryyieldsvs.
Kim-Wrightestimateof5-yeartermpremium;%5-yearTreasuryyieldsvs.
Kim-Wrightestimateof5-yeartermpremium;%FOREIGNHOLDINGSOFUSTREASURIESANDTREASURBusinessdaysaroundFOMCmeetingswhererateguidancewasextended**includes8/9/11,1/25/12,9/13/12WouldadvisecautionininterpretingtermpremiumestimatestooliterallyEconometricmodelsoftermpremiummayneedtocontrolforgrowth/inflationexpectationsandotherfactorsthatpredominantlyinfluenceshortrateexpectationsFailuretoproperlyaccountfordecliningshortrateexpectationssince2009haspushedmodelbasedtermpremiumestimatessignificantlynegative2RYYIELDSEstimatesofyieldimpactofforeignbuyingaresmallerthantheyappearAveragemonthlyforeignpurchasesofUSTversusmonthlyTreasurysupplyAveragemonthlyforeignpurchasesofUSTversusmonthlyTreasurysupplyEstimatedimpactofFedLSAPEstimatedimpactofFedLSAP406080100120TsysupplyForeignpurchasesStudyDateyieldimpactHamiltonandWu201120KrishnamurthyandVissing-Jorgensen201120D'AmicoandKing(QE1)201135FOREIGNHOLDINGSOFUSTREASURIESANDTREASUR$100bninmonthlypurchasesismorethan5timesmonthlysupplyofTreasuriesduringperiodstudiedEstimatesimplyanincreaseofforeignpurchasesduring2002-2007equaltototalsupplywouldhaveloweredyieldsonly9bpTheseestimatesarewellunderonehalftheestimatedimpactfromQE;Fedbuyinghasrangedfrom50%ofmonthlysupplyinQE1toalmost100%ofmonthlysupplyinQE2020402002-20072007-20123RYYIELDSDisclaimerConflictofInterest:Thisresearchcontainstheviews,opinionsandrecommendationsofJ.
P.
Morganresearchanalysts.
J.
P.
Morganhasadoptedresearchconflictofinterestpolicies,includingprohibitionsonnon-researchpersonnelinfluencingthecontentofresearch.
ResearchanalystsstillmayspeaktoJ.
P.
Morgantradingdeskpersonnelinformulatingviews,opinionsandrecommendations.
Tradingdesksmaytrade,orhavetraded,asprincipalonthebasisoftheresearchanalysts'viewsandresearch.
Therefore,thisresearchmaynotbeindependentfromtheproprietaryinterestsofJ.
P.
Morgantradingdeskswhichmayconflictwithyourinterests.
Asageneralmatter,J.
P.
Morganand/oritsaffiliatestradeasprincipalinconnectionwithmakingmarketsinfixedincomesecuritiesdiscussedinresearchreports.
AnalystCertification:Theresearchanalyst(s)denotedbyan"AC"onthecoverofthisreportcertifies(or,wheremultipleresearchanalystsareprimarilyresponsibleforthisreport,theresearchanalystdenotedbyan"AC"onthecoverorwithinthedocumentindividuallycertifies,withrespecttoeachsecurityorissuerthattheresearchanalystcoversinthisresearch)that:(1)alloftheviewsexpressedinthisreportaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutanyandallofthesubjectsecuritiesorissuers;and(2)nopartofanyoftheresearchanalyst'scompensationwas,is,orwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedbytheresearchanalyst(s)inthisreport.
Valuation&Methodology:InJ.
P.
Morgan'screditresearch,weassignaratingtoeachissuer(Overweight,UnderweightorNeutral)basedonourcreditviewoftheissuerandtherelativevalueofitssecurities,takingintoaccounttheratingsassignedtotheissuerbycreditratingagenciesandthemarketpricesfortheissuer'ssecurities.
Ourcreditviewofanissuerisbaseduponouropinionastowhethertheissuerwillbeableserviceitsdebtobligationswhentheybecomedueandpayable.
Weassessthisbyanalyzing,amongotherthings,theissuer'screditpositionusingstandardcreditratiossuchascashflowtodebtandfixedchargecoverage(includingandexcludingcapitalinvestment).
Wealsoanalyzetheissuer'sabilitytogeneratecashflowbyreviewingstandardoperationalmeasuresforcomparablecompaniesinthesector,suchasrevenueandearningsgrowthrates,margins,andthecompositionoftheissuer'sbalancesheetrelativetotheoperationalleverageinitsbusiness.
Analysts'Compensation:Theresearchanalystsresponsibleforthepreparationofthisreportreceivecompensationbaseduponvariousfactors,includingthequalityandaccuracyofresearch,clientfeedback,andoverallfirmrevenues.
RatingsSystem:J.
P.
Morganusesthefollowingsector/issuerportfolioweightings:Overweight(overthenextthreemonths,therecommendedriskpositionisexpectedtooutperformtherelevantindex,sector,orbenchmark),Neutral(overthenextthreemonths,therecommendedriskpositionisexpectedtoperforminlinewiththerelevantindex,sector,orbenchmark),andUnderweight(overthenextthreemonths,therecommendedriskpositionisexpectedtounderperformtherelevantindex,sector,orbenchmark).
J.
P.
Morgan'sEmergingMarketresearchusesaratingofMarketweight,whichisequivalenttoaNeutralrating.
J.
P.
Morgan("JPM")istheglobalbrandnameforJ.
P.
MorganSecuritiesLLC("JPMS")anditsaffiliatesworldwide.
J.
P.
MorganCazenoveisamarketingnamefortheU.
K.
investmentbankingbusinessesandEMEAcashequitiesandequityresearchbusinessesofJPMorganChase&Co.
anditssubsidiaries.
Optionsrelatedresearch:Iftheinformationcontainedhereinregardsoptionsrelatedresearch,suchinformationisavailableonlytopersonswhohavereceivedtheproperoptionriskdisclosuredocuments.
ForacopyoftheOptionClearingCorporation'sCharacteristicsandRisksofStandardizedOptions,pleasecontactyourJ.
P.
MorganRepresentativeorvisittheOCC'swebsiteathttp://www.
optionsclearing.
com/publications/risks/riskstoc.
pdfFOREIGNHOLDINGSOFUSTREASURIESANDTREASURClearingCorporation'sCharacteristicsandRisksofStandardizedOptions,pleasecontactyourJ.
P.
MorganRepresentativeorvisittheOCC'swebsiteathttp://www.
optionsclearing.
com/publications/risks/riskstoc.
pdfLegalEntitiesDisclosuresU.
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JPMorganChaseBank,N.
A.
isamemberofFDICandisauthorizedandregulatedintheUKbytheFinancialServicesAuthority.
U.
K.
:J.
P.
MorganSecuritiesplc(JPMSplc)isamemberoftheLondonStockExchangeandisauthorizedandregulatedbytheFinancialServicesAuthority.
RegisteredinEngland&WalesNo.
2711006.
RegisteredOffice25BankStreet,London,E145JP.
SouthAfrica:J.
P.
MorganEquitiesLimitedisamemberoftheJohannesburgSecuritiesExchangeandisregulatedbytheFSB.
HongKong:J.
P.
MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)Limited(CEnumberAAJ321)isregulatedbytheHongKongMonetaryAuthorityandtheSecuritiesandFuturesCommissioninHongKong.
Korea:J.
P.
MorganSecurities(FarEast)Ltd,SeoulBranch,isregulatedbytheKoreaFinancialSupervisoryService.
Australia:J.
P.
MorganAustraliaLimited(ABN52002888011/AFSLicenceNo:238188)isregulatedbyASICandJ.
P.
MorganSecuritiesAustraliaLimited(ABN61003245234/AFSLicenceNo:238066)isaMarketParticipantwiththeASXandregulatedbyASIC.
Taiwan:J.
P.
MorganSecurities(Taiwan)LimitedisaparticipantoftheTaiwanStockExchange(company-type)andregulatedbytheTaiwanSecuritiesandFuturesBureau.
India:J.
P.
MorganIndiaPrivateLimited,havingitsregisteredofficeatJ.
P.
MorganTower,Off.
C.
S.
T.
Road,Kalina,SantacruzEast,Mumbai-400098,isamemberoftheNationalStockExchangeofIndiaLimited(SEBIRegistrationNumber-INB230675231/INF230675231/INE230675231)andBombayStockExchangeLimited(SEBIRegistrationNumber-INB010675237/INF010675237)andisregulatedbySecuritiesandExchangeBoardofIndia.
Thailand:JPMorganSecurities(Thailand)LimitedisamemberoftheStockExchangeofThailandandisregulatedbytheMinistryofFinanceandtheSecuritiesandExchangeCommission.
Indonesia:PTJ.
P.
MorganSecuritiesIndonesiaisamemberoftheIndonesiaStockExchangeandisregulatedbytheBAPEPAMLK.
Philippines:J.
P.
MorganSecuritiesPhilippinesInc.
isamemberofthePhilippineStockExchangeandisregulatedbytheSecuritiesandExchangeCommission.
Brazil:BancoJ.
P.
MorganS.
A.
isregulatedbytheComissaodeValoresMobiliarios(CVM)andbytheCentralBankofBrazil.
Mexico:J.
P.
MorganCasadeBolsa,S.
A.
deC.
V.
,J.
P.
MorganGrupoFinancieroisamemberoftheMexicanStockExchangeandauthorizedtoactasabrokerdealerbytheNationalBankingandSecuritiesExchangeCommission.
Singapore:ThismaterialisissuedanddistributedinSingaporebyJ.
P.
MorganSecuritiesSingaporePrivateLimited(JPMSS)[MICA(P)088/04/2012andCo.
Reg.
No.
:199405335R]whichisamemberoftheSingaporeExchangeSecuritiesTradingLimitedandisregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingapore(MAS)and/orJPMorganChaseBank,N.
A.
,Singaporebranch(JPMCBSingapore)whichisregulatedbytheMAS.
Malaysia:ThismaterialisissuedanddistributedinMalaysiabyJPMorganSecurities(Malaysia)SdnBhd(18146-X)whichisaParticipatingOrganizationofBursaMalaysiaBerhadandaholderofCapitalMarketsServicesLicenseissuedbytheSecuritiesCommissioninMalaysia.
Pakistan:J.
P.
MorganPakistanBroking(Pvt.
)LtdisamemberoftheKarachiStockExchangeandregulatedbytheSecuritiesandExchangeCommissionofPakistan.
SaudiArabia:J.
P.
MorganSaudiArabiaLtd.
isauthorizedbytheCapitalMarketAuthorityoftheKingdomofSaudiArabia(CMA)tocarryoutdealingasanagent,arranging,advisingandcustody,withrespecttosecuritiesbusinessunderlicencenumber35-07079anditsregisteredaddressisat8thFloor,Al-FaisaliyahTower,KingFahadRoad,P.
O.
Box51907,Riyadh11553,KingdomofSaudiArabia.
Dubai:JPMorganChaseBank,N.
A.
,DubaiBranchisregulatedbytheDubaiFinancialServicesAuthority(DFSA)anditsregisteredaddressisDubaiInternationalFinancialCentre-Building3,Level7,POBox506551,Dubai,UAE.
14RYYIELDSDisclaimerCountryandRegionSpecificDisclosuresU.
K.
andEuropeanEconomicArea(EEA):Unlessspecifiedtothecontrary,issuedandapprovedfordistributionintheU.
K.
andtheEEAbyJPMSplc.
InvestmentresearchissuedbyJPMSplchasbeenpreparedinaccordancewithJPMSplc'spoliciesformanagingconflictsofinterestarisingasaresultofpublicationanddistributionofinvestmentresearch.
ManyEuropeanregulatorsrequireafirmtoestablish,implementandmaintainsuchapolicy.
ThisreporthasbeenissuedintheU.
K.
onlytopersonsofakinddescribedinArticle19(5),38,47and49oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000(FinancialPromotion)Order2005(allsuchpersonsbeingreferredtoas"relevantpersons").
Thisdocumentmustnotbeactedonorreliedonbypersonswhoarenotrelevantpersons.
Anyinvestmentorinvestmentactivitytowhichthisdocumentrelatesisonlyavailabletorelevantpersonsandwillbeengagedinonlywithrelevantpersons.
InotherEEAcountries,thereporthasbeenissuedtopersonsregardedasprofessionalinvestors(orequivalent)intheirhomejurisdiction.
Australia:ThismaterialisissuedanddistributedbyJPMSALinAustraliato"wholesaleclients"only.
JPMSALdoesnotissueordistributethismaterialto"retailclients".
TherecipientofthismaterialmustnotdistributeittoanythirdpartyoroutsideAustraliawithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofJPMSAL.
Forthepurposesofthisparagraphtheterms"wholesaleclient"and"retailclient"havethemeaningsgiventotheminsection761GoftheCorporationsAct2001.
Germany:ThismaterialisdistributedinGermanybyJ.
P.
MorganSecuritiesplc,FrankfurtBranchandJ.
P.
MorganChaseBank,N.
A.
,FrankfurtBranchwhichareregulatedbytheBundesanstaltfürFinanzdienstleistungsaufsicht.
HongKong:The1%ownershipdisclosureasofthepreviousmonthendsatisfiestherequirementsunderParagraph16.
5(a)oftheHongKongCodeofConductforPersonsLicensedbyorRegisteredwiththeSecuritiesandFuturesCommission.
(Forresearchpublishedwithinthefirsttendaysofthemonth,thedisclosuremaybebasedonthemonthenddatafromtwomonthsprior.
)J.
P.
MorganBroking(HongKong)Limitedistheliquidityprovider/marketmakerforderivativewarrants,callablebullbearcontractsandstockoptionslistedontheStockExchangeofHongKongLimited.
AnupdatedlistcanbefoundonHKExwebsite:http://www.
hkex.
com.
hk.
Japan:Thereisariskthatalossmayoccurduetoachangeinthepriceofthesharesinthecaseofsharetrading,andthatalossmayoccurduetotheexchangerateinthecaseofforeignsharetrading.
Inthecaseofsharetrading,JPMorganSecuritiesJapanCo.
,Ltd.
,willbereceivingabrokeragefeeandconsumptiontax(shouhizei)calculatedbymultiplyingtheexecutedpricebythecommissionratewhichwasindividuallyagreedbetweenJPMorganSecuritiesJapanCo.
,Ltd.
,andthecustomerinadvance.
FinancialInstrumentsFirms:JPMorganSecuritiesJapanCo.
,Ltd.
,KantoLocalFinanceBureau(kinsho)No.
82ParticipatingAssociation/JapanSecuritiesDealersAssociation,TheFinancialFuturesAssociationofJapan,TypeIIFinancialInstrumentsFirmsAssociationandJapanInvestmentAdvisersAssociation.
Korea:ThisreportmayhavebeeneditedorcontributedtofromtimetotimebyaffiliatesofJ.
P.
MorganSecurities(FarEast)Ltd,SeoulBranch.
Singapore:JPMSSand/oritsaffiliatesmayhaveaholdinginanyofthesecuritiesdiscussedinthisreport;forsecuritieswheretheholdingis1%orgreater,thespecificholdingisdisclosedintheImportantDisclosuressectionabove.
India:Forprivatecirculationonly,notforsale.
Pakistan:Forprivatecirculationonly,notforsale.
NewZealand:ThismaterialisissuedanddistributedbyJPMSALinNewZealandonlytopersonswhoseprincipalbusinessistheinvestmentofmoneyorwho,inthecourseofandforthepurposesoftheirbusiness,habituallyinvestmoney.
JPMSALdoesnotissueordistributethismaterialtomembersof"thepublic"asdeterminedinaccordancewithsection3oftheSecuritiesAct1978.
TherecipientofthismaterialmustnotdistributeittoanythirdFOREIGNHOLDINGSOFUSTREASURIESANDTREASURJPMSALdoesnotissueordistributethismaterialtomembersof"thepublic"asdeterminedinaccordancewithsection3oftheSecuritiesAct1978.
TherecipientofthismaterialmustnotdistributeittoanythirdpartyoroutsideNewZealandwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofJPMSAL.
Canada:Theinformationcontainedhereinisnot,andundernocircumstancesistobeconstruedas,aprospectus,anadvertisement,apublicoffering,anoffertosellsecuritiesdescribedherein,orsolicitationofanoffertobuysecuritiesdescribedherein,inCanadaoranyprovinceorterritorythereof.
AnyofferorsaleofthesecuritiesdescribedhereininCanadawillbemadeonlyunderanexemptionfromtherequirementstofileaprospectuswiththerelevantCanadiansecuritiesregulatorsandonlybyadealerproperlyregisteredunderapplicablesecuritieslawsor,alternatively,pursuanttoanexemptionfromthedealerregistrationrequirementintherelevantprovinceorterritoryofCanadainwhichsuchofferorsaleismade.
TheinformationcontainedhereinisundernocircumstancestobeconstruedasinvestmentadviceinanyprovinceorterritoryofCanadaandisnottailoredtotheneedsoftherecipient.
Totheextentthattheinformationcontainedhereinreferencessecuritiesofanissuerincorporated,formedorcreatedunderthelawsofCanadaoraprovinceorterritoryofCanada,anytradesinsuchsecuritiesmustbeconductedthroughadealerregisteredinCanada.
NosecuritiescommissionorsimilarregulatoryauthorityinCanadahasreviewedorinanywaypassedjudgmentuponthesematerials,theinformationcontainedhereinorthemeritsofthesecuritiesdescribedherein,andanyrepresentationtothecontraryisanoffence.
Dubai:ThisreporthasbeenissuedtopersonsregardedasprofessionalclientsasdefinedundertheDFSArules.
General:Additionalinformationisavailableuponrequest.
InformationhasbeenobtainedfromsourcesbelievedtobereliablebutJPMorganChase&Co.
oritsaffiliatesand/orsubsidiaries(collectivelyJ.
P.
Morgan)donotwarrantitscompletenessoraccuracyexceptwithrespecttoanydisclosuresrelativetoJPMSand/oritsaffiliatesandtheanalyst'sinvolvementwiththeissuerthatisthesubjectoftheresearch.
Allpricingisasofthecloseofmarketforthesecuritiesdiscussed,unlessotherwisestated.
Opinionsandestimatesconstituteourjudgmentasofthedateofthismaterialandaresubjecttochangewithoutnotice.
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Theopinionsandrecommendationshereindonottakeintoaccountindividualclientcircumstances,objectives,orneedsandarenotintendedasrecommendationsofparticularsecurities,financialinstrumentsorstrategiestoparticularclients.
Therecipientofthisreportmustmakeitsownindependentdecisionsregardinganysecuritiesorfinancialinstrumentsmentionedherein.
JPMSdistributesintheU.
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Periodicupdatesmaybeprovidedoncompanies/industriesbasedoncompanyspecificdevelopmentsorannouncements,marketconditionsoranyotherpubliclyavailableinformation.
ClientsshouldcontactanalystsandexecutetransactionsthroughaJ.
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"OtherDisclosures"lastrevisedAugust04,2012.
Copyright2012JPMorganChase&Co.
Allrightsreserved.
Thisreportoranyportionhereofmaynotbereprinted,soldorredistributedwithoutthewrittenconsentofJ.
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