Consumercpanel
cpanel 时间:2021-01-04 阅读:()
TheWealthyHand-to-MouthGregKaplanPrincetonUniversityGianlucaViolanteNewYorkUniversityJustinWeidnerPrincetonUniversityInpreparationforthenextBPEAvolumeYale,April8th2014Kaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
1/46Understandingthejointdynamicsof(c,y)PIHandbuffer-stockmodel:organizingframeworksKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
2/46Understandingthejointdynamicsof(c,y)PIHandbuffer-stockmodel:organizingframeworksSeveralanomaliesunexplainedbystandardtheory:1.
Micro:coverreactstopredictableygrowthJohnson,Parker,andSouleles(2006)2.
MacroI:CoverreactstopredictableYgrowth3.
MacroII:CuncorrelatedwithrCampbellandMankiw(1989,1990,1991)Kaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
2/46Understandingthejointdynamicsof(c,y)PIHandbuffer-stockmodel:organizingframeworksSeveralanomaliesunexplainedbystandardtheory:1.
Micro:coverreactstopredictableygrowthJohnson,Parker,andSouleles(2006)2.
MacroI:CoverreactstopredictableYgrowth3.
MacroII:CuncorrelatedwithrCampbellandMankiw(1989,1990,1991)Solution:sizableshareofhand-to-mouth(HtM)householdsKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
2/46MeasurementofHtMhouseholdsTraditional:"one-asset"(networth)viewofthedataTwogroups:1.
Non-HtM:substantialnetworth2.
HtM:zeronetworthKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
3/46MeasurementofHtMhouseholdsTraditional:"one-asset"(networth)viewofthedataTwogroups:1.
Non-HtM:substantialnetworth2.
HtM:zeronetworthAlternative:"two-asset"(liquid-illiquid)viewofthedataThreegroups:1.
Non-HtM:substantialliquidwealth2.
Poor-HtM:noliquidwealthandnoilliquidwealth3.
Wealthy-HtM:noliquidwealth,butsubstantialilliquidwealthTraditionalviewmissestheWealthyHtMKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
3/46TheW-HtM:questions1.
WhenisW-HtMbehavioroptimal2.
HowdoweidentifyW-HtMhouseholdsinsurveydata3.
WhatistheshareofW-HtMacrosscountriesUS,CA,AU,UK,DE,FR,IT,ES4.
PortfolioDemographicsPersistenceoftheirstatus5.
HighMPCoutoftransitoryyshocksEvidencefromPSID6.
WhataretheimplicationsofW-HtMforscalpolicyKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
4/46TOYMODELKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
5/46EnvironmentAtt=0:portfoliochoicebetweenliquidandilliquidasset(m1,a)Illiquidasset:grossreturnRatt=2,andconsumptioncommitmentκaatt=1Att=1:receiveincomey1,consumec1,savem2(nocredit)Att=2:receiveincomey2,consumec2Preferences:u(c1)+u(c2)(nodiscounting)Kaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
6/46EnvironmentAtt=0:portfoliochoicebetweenliquidandilliquidasset(m1,a)Illiquidasset:grossreturnRatt=2,andconsumptioncommitmentκaatt=1Att=1:receiveincomey1,consumec1,savem2(nocredit)Att=2:receiveincomey2,consumec2Preferences:u(c1)+u(c2)(nodiscounting)DenitionofHtMstatus:N-HtM:m2>0&a>0→c1=c2P-HtM:m2=0&a=0→c10→c1y1+1m2=0Kaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
9/46Hand-to-mouthbehaviorShort-runEEHtMif:y2>y1+1m2=0Long-runEE+uCESW-HtMiff:R1+κ>y2y1+11ε,IES=εTrade-off:higherc2forlowerconsumptionsmoothingbtwperiodsKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
9/46Hand-to-mouthbehaviorShort-runEEHtMif:y2>y1+1m2=0Long-runEE+uCESW-HtMiff:R1+κ>y2y1+11ε,IES=εTrade-off:higherc2forlowerconsumptionsmoothingbtwperiodsW-HtMhashighMPCoutofunexpected(small)transferatt=1Kaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
9/46MEASUREMENTSTRATEGYKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
10/46FromtheorytomeasurementTwokinksinthehouseholdbudgetconstraint:1.
Zeroliquidwealth(mt+1=0)2.
Unsecuredcreditlimit(mt+1=m)HtMhouseholdsendthepay-periodtatakinkKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
11/46FromtheorytomeasurementTwokinksinthehouseholdbudgetconstraint:1.
Zeroliquidwealth(mt+1=0)2.
Unsecuredcreditlimit(mt+1=m)HtMhouseholdsendthepay-periodtatakinkMismatchintimingofyreceiptandcexpendituresyreceiptatthestartofthepay-period,cthroughoutthepay-period1.
HtMatzerokinkhavepositiveavg.
liquidwealth2.
HtMatcreditlimithaveavg.
liquidwealthabovelimitKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
11/46IdenticationofHtMinsurveydataAhouseholdisP-HtMatthezerokinkif:ait=0,and0≤mit≤mitAhouseholdisW-HtMatthezerokinkif:ait>0,and0≤mit≤mitKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
12/46IdenticationofHtMinsurveydataAhouseholdisP-HtMatthezerokinkif:ait=0,and0≤mit≤mitAhouseholdisW-HtMatthezerokinkif:ait>0,and0≤mit≤mitAhouseholdisP-HtMatthecreditlimitif:ait=0,mit≤0andmit≤mitmit,AhouseholdisW-HtMatthecreditlimitif:ait>0,mit≤0andmit≤mitmitKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
12/46GraphicalillustrationofHtMbehaviorCashinhandtytmt=yt2tt+1(a)HtMatthezerokinkCashinhandtm+ytmmt=yt2mtt+1(b)HtMatthecreditlimitKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
13/46GraphicalillustrationofHtMbehaviorCashinhandtytmt=yt2tt+1(c)HtMatthezerokinkCashinhandtm+ytmmt=yt2mtt+1(d)HtMatthecreditlimitSuggests:mit=yit2Kaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
13/46BiasinestimatorofHtMsharewithmit=yit/21.
Averagebalances:downwardbiasItmissessomeHtMhouseholdsItnevermistakesaN-HtMforHtMKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
14/46BiasinestimatorofHtMsharewithmit=yit/21.
Averagebalances:downwardbiasItmissessomeHtMhouseholdsItnevermistakesaN-HtMforHtM2.
Balancesatarandompointduringthepay-period:ItmissessomecasesofHtMhouseholdsItmistakesaN-HtMforHtMonlyifthehouseholdhasliquidbalances,attheendofthepay-period,lessthatyit/2awayfromthethresholdKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
14/46DATAKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
15/46SurveysonhouseholdportfoliosUnitedStates:SurveyofConsumerFinances1989-2010Canada:SurveyofFinancialSecurity2005Australia:Household,Income,andLabourDynamics2010UnitedKingdom:WealthandAssetsSurvey2010Germany,France,Italy,andSpain:HouseholdFinanceandConsumptionSurvey2008-10Kaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
16/46SurveysonhouseholdportfoliosUnitedStates:SurveyofConsumerFinances1989-2010Canada:SurveyofFinancialSecurity2005Australia:Household,Income,andLabourDynamics2010UnitedKingdom:WealthandAssetsSurvey2010Germany,France,Italy,andSpain:HouseholdFinanceandConsumptionSurvey2008-10Sampleselection:head22-79year-old,positiveincome,Samplesizepersurvey:5,000households(oversamplingrich)Kaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
16/46EmpiricaldetailsPay-period:Bi-weekly(supportedbyCEX)Kaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
17/46EmpiricaldetailsPay-period:Bi-weekly(supportedbyCEX)Income:Alllaborincomeplusgovernmenttransfersthatareregularinowsofliquidwealth,beforetaxesKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
17/46EmpiricaldetailsPay-period:Bi-weekly(supportedbyCEX)Income:Alllaborincomeplusgovernmenttransfersthatareregularinowsofliquidwealth,beforetaxesLiquidwealth:Checking,savings,moneymarketandcallaccountsplusdirectlyheldmutualfunds,stocksandcorporatebonds,plusimputedcashholdings,netofcreditcarddebtKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
17/46EmpiricaldetailsPay-period:Bi-weekly(supportedbyCEX)Income:Alllaborincomeplusgovernmenttransfersthatareregularinowsofliquidwealth,beforetaxesLiquidwealth:Checking,savings,moneymarketandcallaccountsplusdirectlyheldmutualfunds,stocksandcorporatebonds,plusimputedcashholdings,netofcreditcarddebtIlliquidwealth:ValueofhousingandrealestatenetofmortgagesandHELOC,privateretirementaccounts,cashvalueoflifeinsurance,certicatesofdeposit,andsavingbondsKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
17/46EmpiricaldetailsPay-period:Bi-weekly(supportedbyCEX)Income:Alllaborincomeplusgovernmenttransfersthatareregularinowsofliquidwealth,beforetaxesLiquidwealth:Checking,savings,moneymarketandcallaccountsplusdirectlyheldmutualfunds,stocksandcorporatebonds,plusimputedcashholdings,netofcreditcarddebtIlliquidwealth:ValueofhousingandrealestatenetofmortgagesandHELOC,privateretirementaccounts,cashvalueoflifeinsurance,certicatesofdeposit,andsavingbondsBorrowinglimit:Onemonthofincome(forcomparability)Kaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
17/46RESULTS:UNITEDSTATESKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
18/46HowlargeistheshareofHtMintheUS0.
1.
2.
3.
4.
519891992199519982001200420072010WHtMPHtM30%ofU.
S.
householdsareHtM,and2/3ofthemareW-HtMKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
19/46WhatistheportfoliocompositionforW-HtM0.
1.
2.
3.
4.
519891992199519982001200420072010BothotherandhousingwealthOnlyhousingwealthOtherilliquidbutnohousingwealthMostlyhomeowners,but1/5ofW-HtMarewithoutanyrealestateKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
20/46W-HtMamonghomeowners,byleverageratio0.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7ShareofHtMamongHomeowners=00.
3.
3.
6.
6.
9.
91.
21.
21.
51.
51.
81.
82.
12.
12.
42.
42.
72.
73LeverageRatioMisra-Surico(2013):homeownerswithbigmortgageshadstrongcresponseto2001and2008scalstimuluspaymentsKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
21/46Robustness0.
1.
2.
3.
4.
519891992199519982001200420072010WHtMPHtM(a)y-weightedshareofHtM0.
1.
2.
3.
4.
519891992199519982001200420072010WHtMPHtM(b)Pay-periodof1month0.
1.
2.
3.
4.
519891992199519982001200420072010WHtMPHtM(c)Reportedcreditlimit0.
1.
2.
3.
4.
519891992199519982001200420072010WHtMPHtM(d)VehiclesinilliquidwealthKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
22/46MorerobustnessP-HtMW-HtMHtMHtM-NWBaseline0.
1210.
1920.
3120.
137Higherilliquidwealthcutoff0.
1210.
1920.
3120.
137Businessesasilliquidassets0.
1140.
1930.
3070.
129Directasilliquidassets0.
1200.
2170.
3370.
137Othervaluablesasilliquidassets0.
1170.
1960.
3120.
132Excludescc-puzzlehouseholds0.
1630.
1830.
3460.
177HELOCsasliquiddebt0.
1200.
1810.
3010.
135Disp.
income(viaTAXSIM)0.
1210.
1880.
3090.
137Comm.
cons.
-beg.
ofperiod0.
1020.
1660.
2680.
116Comm.
cons.
-endofperiod0.
1490.
2720.
4210.
174Kaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
23/46MorerobustnessP-HtMW-HtMHtMHtM-NWBaseline0.
1210.
1920.
3120.
137Higherilliquidwealthcutoff0.
1210.
1920.
3120.
137Businessesasilliquidassets0.
1140.
1930.
3070.
129Directasilliquidassets0.
1200.
2170.
3370.
137Othervaluablesasilliquidassets0.
1170.
1960.
3120.
132Excludescc-puzzlehouseholds0.
1630.
1830.
3460.
177HELOCsasliquiddebt0.
1200.
1810.
3010.
135Disp.
income(viaTAXSIM)0.
1210.
1880.
3090.
137Comm.
cons.
-beg.
ofperiod0.
1020.
1660.
2680.
116Comm.
cons.
-endofperiod0.
1490.
2720.
4210.
174EstimatesbasedonnetworthmissatleasthalfofHtMKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
23/46AgeproleofHtMhouseholds0.
1.
2.
3.
420406080AgeWHtMPHtMP-HtM:young,whereasW-HtM:middle-ageKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
24/46DoW-HtMlookmorelikeP-HtMorN-HtM0.
2.
4.
6.
8Fraction20406080AgeWHtMPHtMNHtM(a)Fractionmarried0.
511.
52Number20406080AgeWHtMPHtMNHtM(b)Numberofchildren020406080Thousandsof2010USD20406080AgeWHtMPHtMNHtM(c)Medianincome0.
1.
2.
3Fraction20406080AgeWHtMPHtMNHtM(d)Frac.
w/unemp.
memberKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
25/46DoW-HtMlookmorelikeP-HtMorN-HtM05101520Thousandsof2010USD20406080AgeWHtMPHtMNHtM(a)Mediannetliquidwealth0100200300Thousandsof2010USD20406080AgeWHtMNHtM(b)Mediannetilliquidwealth0.
2.
4.
6.
8120406080AgeWHtMNHtM(c)Fractioninhousing0.
2.
4.
6.
8120406080AgeWHtMNHtM(d)Fractioninret.
accountsKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
26/46PersistenceofHtMstatus07→09PWNP0.
5480.
1270.
326W0.
1010.
4550.
444N0.
0550.
1290.
816Ergodic0.
1260.
1910.
683Expecteddurations:P-HtMstatus:4.
5yearsW-HtMstatus:3.
5yearsN-HtMstatus:11yearsKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
27/46SummaryonP-HtMvsW-HtMP-HtMW-HtM1/10ofpopulation1/5ofpopulationyoungmiddle-agelowincomemiddle/highincomenowealthhighilliquidwealth–portfoliolikeN-HtMpersistentstatemoretransientKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
28/46SummaryonP-HtMvsW-HtMP-HtMW-HtM1/10ofpopulation1/5ofpopulationyoungmiddle-agelowincomemiddle/highincomenowealthhighilliquidwealth–portfoliolikeN-HtMpersistentstatemoretransientConclusion:theyshouldbemodelledastwodifferentgroups!
Kaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
28/46CROSS-COUNTRYCOMPARISON2010Kaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
29/46Cross-countrycomparison:shareofHtM0.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5USCAAUUKDEFRITESWHtMPHtMKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
30/46Cross-countrycomparison:shareofHtM0.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5USCAAUUKDEFRITESWHtMPHtMSizablevariationinshareofHtMInallcountries,W-HtMtwiceasmanyasP-HtMKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
30/46Cross-countrycomparison:portfolioofW-HtM0.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5USCAAUUKDEFRITESOtherilliquidbutnohousingwealthOnlyhousingwealthBothotherandhousingwealthKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
31/46Cross-countrycomparison:portfolioofW-HtM0.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5USCAAUUKDEFRITESOtherilliquidbutnohousingwealthOnlyhousingwealthBothotherandhousingwealthBigvariationinportfoliocompositionKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
31/46Cross-countrycomparison:distributionofm/y0.
05.
1.
15.
2.
25.
3Fractionofhouseholds1050510Netliquidwealthtomonthlylaborincomeratio(a)UnitedStates0.
05.
1.
15.
2.
25.
3Fractionofhouseholds1050510Netliquidwealthtomonthlylaborincomeratio(b)UnitedKingdom0.
05.
1.
15.
2.
25.
3Fractionofhouseholds1050510Netliquidwealthtomonthlylaborincomeratio(c)Italy0.
05.
1.
15.
2.
25.
3Fractionofhouseholds1050510Netliquidwealthtomonthlylaborincomeratio(d)SpainKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
32/46Cross-countrycomparison:ageproleofHtM0.
1.
2.
3.
4222425293034353940444549505455596064656970747579AgeWHtMPHtM(a)UnitedStates0.
1.
2.
3.
4202425293034353940444549505455596064656970747579AgeWHtMPHtM(b)UnitedKingdom0.
1.
2.
3.
4222425293034353940444549505455596064656970747579AgeWHtMPHtM(c)Italy0.
1.
2.
3.
4222425293034353940444549505455596064656970747579AgeWHtMPHtM(d)SpainKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
33/46MPCOFTHEW-HTMKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
34/46MPCoutoftransitoryincomeshocksDoW-HtM(andP-HtM)respondstronglytotransitoryyshocksChallenges:1.
Needpaneldataonincome,consumption,andwealth2.
IndividualincomeshocksarenotdirectlyobservedSolutions:1.
Bi-annualdatafrom1999-2011wavesofthePSID2.
IdenticationstrategyfromBlundell-Pistaferri-Preston(2008)Kaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
35/46BPPidenticationstrategyResiduallogincomeisasumofpermanent+i.
i.
d.
components:logyit=ηit+εitTransmissioncoefcientofshockεintoc:MPCε≡cov(cit,εit)var(εit)Assumehouseholdshavenoforesightaboutfutureshocks:cov(cit,ηi,t+1)=cov(cit,εi,t+1)=0ThenMPCεcanbeestimatedas:MPCε=cov(cit,yi,t+1)cov(yit,yi,t+1)Kaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
36/46ResultsMPCεP-HtMW-HtMN-HtMHtM-NWN-HtM-NWBaseline0.
2430.
3010.
1270.
2290.
201(0.
065)(0.
048)(0.
036)(0.
054)(0.
030)Note:BoostrappedSEbasedon250repetitionsKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
37/46ResultsMPCεP-HtMW-HtMN-HtMHtM-NWN-HtM-NWBaseline0.
2430.
3010.
1270.
2290.
201(0.
065)(0.
048)(0.
036)(0.
054)(0.
030)Note:BoostrappedSEbasedon250repetitionsW-HtMarethegroupwiththelargestpointestimatefortheMPCGapwiththeMPCoftheN-HtMstatisticallysignicantSplitbasedonnetworthuninformativeKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
37/46IMPLICATIONSOFW-HTMBEHAVIORFORFISCALPOLICYKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
38/46ImplicationsofW-HtMforscalpolicyIgnoringthatW-HtMareaseparategroupleadstoadistortedviewofeffectsofscalpolicyExamples:1.
Consumptionresponsetolump-sumtransfer(e.
g.
,FSP)2.
SizeasymmetryinresponsetoFSP3.
Optimaldesign(incometargeting)oftheFSP4.
Cross-countrydifferencesinaggregateCresponsetoFSPKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
39/46Threealternativemodels(U.
S.
SCF2010)SIM-2:StandardIncompleteMarketsmodelwith2assetsKaplanandViolante(2014):transactioncostof$1,000Threetypes:P-HtM,W-HtM,andN-HtMSIM-1:StandardIncompleteMarketsmodelwithoneassetOneassetversionofKV,calibratedtonetworthFewerHtM:itmissesallW-HtMSP-S:SPender-SavermodelSpenders(c=y)andSavers(forwardlookingasinSIM-1)RightnumberofHtM,butexaggeratestheirMPC(=1)Kaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
40/46MPCsoutof$500inthethreealternativemodelsSIM-2SIM-1SP-SP-HtMW-HtMN-HtMHtMN-HtMHtMN-HtMAverage0.
350.
440.
060.
140.
021.
000.
02LowIncome0.
340.
370.
160.
150.
041.
000.
04MiddleIncome0.
380.
440.
090.
110.
021.
000.
02HighIncome0.
310.
52-0.
020.
120.
011.
000.
01Age600.
390.
510.
130.
040.
041.
000.
04Kaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
41/46AggregatequarterlyMPCTransfersizeModelSIM-2SIM-1SP-S$5000.
180.
040.
35Sizeasymmetry$500.
290.
050.
35$2,0000.
050.
030.
35Incometargeting$500–bottomtercile0.
260.
070.
50$500–toptercile0.
200.
030.
34Kaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
42/46AggregatequarterlyMPCTransfersizeModelSIM-2SIM-1SP-S$5000.
180.
040.
35Sizeasymmetry$500.
290.
050.
35$2,0000.
050.
030.
35Incometargeting$500–bottomtercile0.
260.
070.
50$500–toptercile0.
200.
030.
34SIM-1(SP-S)under-(over-)estimatesCresponsetoFSPKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
42/46AggregatequarterlyMPCTransfersizeModelSIM-2SIM-1SP-S$5000.
180.
040.
35Sizeasymmetry$500.
290.
050.
35$2,0000.
050.
030.
35Incometargeting$500–bottomtercile0.
260.
070.
50$500–toptercile0.
200.
030.
34Kaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
43/46AggregatequarterlyMPCTransfersizeModelSIM-2SIM-1SP-S$5000.
180.
040.
35Sizeasymmetry$500.
290.
050.
35$2,0000.
050.
030.
35Incometargeting$500–bottomtercile0.
260.
070.
50$500–toptercile0.
200.
030.
34LargeFSPhavesmallerbang-for-the-buckKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
43/46AggregatequarterlyMPCTransfersizeModelSIM-2SIM-1SP-S$5000.
180.
040.
35Sizeasymmetry$500.
290.
050.
35$2,0000.
050.
030.
35Incometargeting$500–bottomtercile0.
260.
070.
50$500–toptercile0.
200.
030.
34Kaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
44/46AggregatequarterlyMPCTransfersizeModelSIM-2SIM-1SP-S$5000.
180.
040.
35Sizeasymmetry$500.
290.
050.
35$2,0000.
050.
030.
35Incometargeting$500–bottomtercile0.
260.
070.
50$500–toptercile0.
200.
030.
34High-income(W-HtM)householdsconsumetheirFSPaswellKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
44/46Cross-countrydifferencesinaggregateMPCoutof$500aucadeesfritukusaucadeesfritukus0.
05.
1.
15.
2.
25.
3.
35.
4EstimatedMPCunderSPSmodel0.
05.
1.
15.
2.
25.
3.
35.
4EstimatedMPCunderSIM1model.
1.
125.
15.
175.
2EstimatedMPCunderSIM2modelSIM1modelSPSmodel45degreelineKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
45/46ConclusionsNotallhand-to-mouthhouseholdsarecreatedequal.
.
.
.
.
.
anditmattersKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
46/46
1/46Understandingthejointdynamicsof(c,y)PIHandbuffer-stockmodel:organizingframeworksKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
2/46Understandingthejointdynamicsof(c,y)PIHandbuffer-stockmodel:organizingframeworksSeveralanomaliesunexplainedbystandardtheory:1.
Micro:coverreactstopredictableygrowthJohnson,Parker,andSouleles(2006)2.
MacroI:CoverreactstopredictableYgrowth3.
MacroII:CuncorrelatedwithrCampbellandMankiw(1989,1990,1991)Kaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
2/46Understandingthejointdynamicsof(c,y)PIHandbuffer-stockmodel:organizingframeworksSeveralanomaliesunexplainedbystandardtheory:1.
Micro:coverreactstopredictableygrowthJohnson,Parker,andSouleles(2006)2.
MacroI:CoverreactstopredictableYgrowth3.
MacroII:CuncorrelatedwithrCampbellandMankiw(1989,1990,1991)Solution:sizableshareofhand-to-mouth(HtM)householdsKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
2/46MeasurementofHtMhouseholdsTraditional:"one-asset"(networth)viewofthedataTwogroups:1.
Non-HtM:substantialnetworth2.
HtM:zeronetworthKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
3/46MeasurementofHtMhouseholdsTraditional:"one-asset"(networth)viewofthedataTwogroups:1.
Non-HtM:substantialnetworth2.
HtM:zeronetworthAlternative:"two-asset"(liquid-illiquid)viewofthedataThreegroups:1.
Non-HtM:substantialliquidwealth2.
Poor-HtM:noliquidwealthandnoilliquidwealth3.
Wealthy-HtM:noliquidwealth,butsubstantialilliquidwealthTraditionalviewmissestheWealthyHtMKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
3/46TheW-HtM:questions1.
WhenisW-HtMbehavioroptimal2.
HowdoweidentifyW-HtMhouseholdsinsurveydata3.
WhatistheshareofW-HtMacrosscountriesUS,CA,AU,UK,DE,FR,IT,ES4.
PortfolioDemographicsPersistenceoftheirstatus5.
HighMPCoutoftransitoryyshocksEvidencefromPSID6.
WhataretheimplicationsofW-HtMforscalpolicyKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
4/46TOYMODELKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
5/46EnvironmentAtt=0:portfoliochoicebetweenliquidandilliquidasset(m1,a)Illiquidasset:grossreturnRatt=2,andconsumptioncommitmentκaatt=1Att=1:receiveincomey1,consumec1,savem2(nocredit)Att=2:receiveincomey2,consumec2Preferences:u(c1)+u(c2)(nodiscounting)Kaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
6/46EnvironmentAtt=0:portfoliochoicebetweenliquidandilliquidasset(m1,a)Illiquidasset:grossreturnRatt=2,andconsumptioncommitmentκaatt=1Att=1:receiveincomey1,consumec1,savem2(nocredit)Att=2:receiveincomey2,consumec2Preferences:u(c1)+u(c2)(nodiscounting)DenitionofHtMstatus:N-HtM:m2>0&a>0→c1=c2P-HtM:m2=0&a=0→c10→c1y1+1m2=0Kaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
9/46Hand-to-mouthbehaviorShort-runEEHtMif:y2>y1+1m2=0Long-runEE+uCESW-HtMiff:R1+κ>y2y1+11ε,IES=εTrade-off:higherc2forlowerconsumptionsmoothingbtwperiodsKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
9/46Hand-to-mouthbehaviorShort-runEEHtMif:y2>y1+1m2=0Long-runEE+uCESW-HtMiff:R1+κ>y2y1+11ε,IES=εTrade-off:higherc2forlowerconsumptionsmoothingbtwperiodsW-HtMhashighMPCoutofunexpected(small)transferatt=1Kaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
9/46MEASUREMENTSTRATEGYKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
10/46FromtheorytomeasurementTwokinksinthehouseholdbudgetconstraint:1.
Zeroliquidwealth(mt+1=0)2.
Unsecuredcreditlimit(mt+1=m)HtMhouseholdsendthepay-periodtatakinkKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
11/46FromtheorytomeasurementTwokinksinthehouseholdbudgetconstraint:1.
Zeroliquidwealth(mt+1=0)2.
Unsecuredcreditlimit(mt+1=m)HtMhouseholdsendthepay-periodtatakinkMismatchintimingofyreceiptandcexpendituresyreceiptatthestartofthepay-period,cthroughoutthepay-period1.
HtMatzerokinkhavepositiveavg.
liquidwealth2.
HtMatcreditlimithaveavg.
liquidwealthabovelimitKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
11/46IdenticationofHtMinsurveydataAhouseholdisP-HtMatthezerokinkif:ait=0,and0≤mit≤mitAhouseholdisW-HtMatthezerokinkif:ait>0,and0≤mit≤mitKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
12/46IdenticationofHtMinsurveydataAhouseholdisP-HtMatthezerokinkif:ait=0,and0≤mit≤mitAhouseholdisW-HtMatthezerokinkif:ait>0,and0≤mit≤mitAhouseholdisP-HtMatthecreditlimitif:ait=0,mit≤0andmit≤mitmit,AhouseholdisW-HtMatthecreditlimitif:ait>0,mit≤0andmit≤mitmitKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
12/46GraphicalillustrationofHtMbehaviorCashinhandtytmt=yt2tt+1(a)HtMatthezerokinkCashinhandtm+ytmmt=yt2mtt+1(b)HtMatthecreditlimitKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
13/46GraphicalillustrationofHtMbehaviorCashinhandtytmt=yt2tt+1(c)HtMatthezerokinkCashinhandtm+ytmmt=yt2mtt+1(d)HtMatthecreditlimitSuggests:mit=yit2Kaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
13/46BiasinestimatorofHtMsharewithmit=yit/21.
Averagebalances:downwardbiasItmissessomeHtMhouseholdsItnevermistakesaN-HtMforHtMKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
14/46BiasinestimatorofHtMsharewithmit=yit/21.
Averagebalances:downwardbiasItmissessomeHtMhouseholdsItnevermistakesaN-HtMforHtM2.
Balancesatarandompointduringthepay-period:ItmissessomecasesofHtMhouseholdsItmistakesaN-HtMforHtMonlyifthehouseholdhasliquidbalances,attheendofthepay-period,lessthatyit/2awayfromthethresholdKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
14/46DATAKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
15/46SurveysonhouseholdportfoliosUnitedStates:SurveyofConsumerFinances1989-2010Canada:SurveyofFinancialSecurity2005Australia:Household,Income,andLabourDynamics2010UnitedKingdom:WealthandAssetsSurvey2010Germany,France,Italy,andSpain:HouseholdFinanceandConsumptionSurvey2008-10Kaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
16/46SurveysonhouseholdportfoliosUnitedStates:SurveyofConsumerFinances1989-2010Canada:SurveyofFinancialSecurity2005Australia:Household,Income,andLabourDynamics2010UnitedKingdom:WealthandAssetsSurvey2010Germany,France,Italy,andSpain:HouseholdFinanceandConsumptionSurvey2008-10Sampleselection:head22-79year-old,positiveincome,Samplesizepersurvey:5,000households(oversamplingrich)Kaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
16/46EmpiricaldetailsPay-period:Bi-weekly(supportedbyCEX)Kaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
17/46EmpiricaldetailsPay-period:Bi-weekly(supportedbyCEX)Income:Alllaborincomeplusgovernmenttransfersthatareregularinowsofliquidwealth,beforetaxesKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
17/46EmpiricaldetailsPay-period:Bi-weekly(supportedbyCEX)Income:Alllaborincomeplusgovernmenttransfersthatareregularinowsofliquidwealth,beforetaxesLiquidwealth:Checking,savings,moneymarketandcallaccountsplusdirectlyheldmutualfunds,stocksandcorporatebonds,plusimputedcashholdings,netofcreditcarddebtKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
17/46EmpiricaldetailsPay-period:Bi-weekly(supportedbyCEX)Income:Alllaborincomeplusgovernmenttransfersthatareregularinowsofliquidwealth,beforetaxesLiquidwealth:Checking,savings,moneymarketandcallaccountsplusdirectlyheldmutualfunds,stocksandcorporatebonds,plusimputedcashholdings,netofcreditcarddebtIlliquidwealth:ValueofhousingandrealestatenetofmortgagesandHELOC,privateretirementaccounts,cashvalueoflifeinsurance,certicatesofdeposit,andsavingbondsKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
17/46EmpiricaldetailsPay-period:Bi-weekly(supportedbyCEX)Income:Alllaborincomeplusgovernmenttransfersthatareregularinowsofliquidwealth,beforetaxesLiquidwealth:Checking,savings,moneymarketandcallaccountsplusdirectlyheldmutualfunds,stocksandcorporatebonds,plusimputedcashholdings,netofcreditcarddebtIlliquidwealth:ValueofhousingandrealestatenetofmortgagesandHELOC,privateretirementaccounts,cashvalueoflifeinsurance,certicatesofdeposit,andsavingbondsBorrowinglimit:Onemonthofincome(forcomparability)Kaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
17/46RESULTS:UNITEDSTATESKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
18/46HowlargeistheshareofHtMintheUS0.
1.
2.
3.
4.
519891992199519982001200420072010WHtMPHtM30%ofU.
S.
householdsareHtM,and2/3ofthemareW-HtMKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
19/46WhatistheportfoliocompositionforW-HtM0.
1.
2.
3.
4.
519891992199519982001200420072010BothotherandhousingwealthOnlyhousingwealthOtherilliquidbutnohousingwealthMostlyhomeowners,but1/5ofW-HtMarewithoutanyrealestateKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
20/46W-HtMamonghomeowners,byleverageratio0.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7ShareofHtMamongHomeowners=00.
3.
3.
6.
6.
9.
91.
21.
21.
51.
51.
81.
82.
12.
12.
42.
42.
72.
73LeverageRatioMisra-Surico(2013):homeownerswithbigmortgageshadstrongcresponseto2001and2008scalstimuluspaymentsKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
21/46Robustness0.
1.
2.
3.
4.
519891992199519982001200420072010WHtMPHtM(a)y-weightedshareofHtM0.
1.
2.
3.
4.
519891992199519982001200420072010WHtMPHtM(b)Pay-periodof1month0.
1.
2.
3.
4.
519891992199519982001200420072010WHtMPHtM(c)Reportedcreditlimit0.
1.
2.
3.
4.
519891992199519982001200420072010WHtMPHtM(d)VehiclesinilliquidwealthKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
22/46MorerobustnessP-HtMW-HtMHtMHtM-NWBaseline0.
1210.
1920.
3120.
137Higherilliquidwealthcutoff0.
1210.
1920.
3120.
137Businessesasilliquidassets0.
1140.
1930.
3070.
129Directasilliquidassets0.
1200.
2170.
3370.
137Othervaluablesasilliquidassets0.
1170.
1960.
3120.
132Excludescc-puzzlehouseholds0.
1630.
1830.
3460.
177HELOCsasliquiddebt0.
1200.
1810.
3010.
135Disp.
income(viaTAXSIM)0.
1210.
1880.
3090.
137Comm.
cons.
-beg.
ofperiod0.
1020.
1660.
2680.
116Comm.
cons.
-endofperiod0.
1490.
2720.
4210.
174Kaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
23/46MorerobustnessP-HtMW-HtMHtMHtM-NWBaseline0.
1210.
1920.
3120.
137Higherilliquidwealthcutoff0.
1210.
1920.
3120.
137Businessesasilliquidassets0.
1140.
1930.
3070.
129Directasilliquidassets0.
1200.
2170.
3370.
137Othervaluablesasilliquidassets0.
1170.
1960.
3120.
132Excludescc-puzzlehouseholds0.
1630.
1830.
3460.
177HELOCsasliquiddebt0.
1200.
1810.
3010.
135Disp.
income(viaTAXSIM)0.
1210.
1880.
3090.
137Comm.
cons.
-beg.
ofperiod0.
1020.
1660.
2680.
116Comm.
cons.
-endofperiod0.
1490.
2720.
4210.
174EstimatesbasedonnetworthmissatleasthalfofHtMKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
23/46AgeproleofHtMhouseholds0.
1.
2.
3.
420406080AgeWHtMPHtMP-HtM:young,whereasW-HtM:middle-ageKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
24/46DoW-HtMlookmorelikeP-HtMorN-HtM0.
2.
4.
6.
8Fraction20406080AgeWHtMPHtMNHtM(a)Fractionmarried0.
511.
52Number20406080AgeWHtMPHtMNHtM(b)Numberofchildren020406080Thousandsof2010USD20406080AgeWHtMPHtMNHtM(c)Medianincome0.
1.
2.
3Fraction20406080AgeWHtMPHtMNHtM(d)Frac.
w/unemp.
memberKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
25/46DoW-HtMlookmorelikeP-HtMorN-HtM05101520Thousandsof2010USD20406080AgeWHtMPHtMNHtM(a)Mediannetliquidwealth0100200300Thousandsof2010USD20406080AgeWHtMNHtM(b)Mediannetilliquidwealth0.
2.
4.
6.
8120406080AgeWHtMNHtM(c)Fractioninhousing0.
2.
4.
6.
8120406080AgeWHtMNHtM(d)Fractioninret.
accountsKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
26/46PersistenceofHtMstatus07→09PWNP0.
5480.
1270.
326W0.
1010.
4550.
444N0.
0550.
1290.
816Ergodic0.
1260.
1910.
683Expecteddurations:P-HtMstatus:4.
5yearsW-HtMstatus:3.
5yearsN-HtMstatus:11yearsKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
27/46SummaryonP-HtMvsW-HtMP-HtMW-HtM1/10ofpopulation1/5ofpopulationyoungmiddle-agelowincomemiddle/highincomenowealthhighilliquidwealth–portfoliolikeN-HtMpersistentstatemoretransientKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
28/46SummaryonP-HtMvsW-HtMP-HtMW-HtM1/10ofpopulation1/5ofpopulationyoungmiddle-agelowincomemiddle/highincomenowealthhighilliquidwealth–portfoliolikeN-HtMpersistentstatemoretransientConclusion:theyshouldbemodelledastwodifferentgroups!
Kaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
28/46CROSS-COUNTRYCOMPARISON2010Kaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
29/46Cross-countrycomparison:shareofHtM0.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5USCAAUUKDEFRITESWHtMPHtMKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
30/46Cross-countrycomparison:shareofHtM0.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5USCAAUUKDEFRITESWHtMPHtMSizablevariationinshareofHtMInallcountries,W-HtMtwiceasmanyasP-HtMKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
30/46Cross-countrycomparison:portfolioofW-HtM0.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5USCAAUUKDEFRITESOtherilliquidbutnohousingwealthOnlyhousingwealthBothotherandhousingwealthKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
31/46Cross-countrycomparison:portfolioofW-HtM0.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5USCAAUUKDEFRITESOtherilliquidbutnohousingwealthOnlyhousingwealthBothotherandhousingwealthBigvariationinportfoliocompositionKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
31/46Cross-countrycomparison:distributionofm/y0.
05.
1.
15.
2.
25.
3Fractionofhouseholds1050510Netliquidwealthtomonthlylaborincomeratio(a)UnitedStates0.
05.
1.
15.
2.
25.
3Fractionofhouseholds1050510Netliquidwealthtomonthlylaborincomeratio(b)UnitedKingdom0.
05.
1.
15.
2.
25.
3Fractionofhouseholds1050510Netliquidwealthtomonthlylaborincomeratio(c)Italy0.
05.
1.
15.
2.
25.
3Fractionofhouseholds1050510Netliquidwealthtomonthlylaborincomeratio(d)SpainKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
32/46Cross-countrycomparison:ageproleofHtM0.
1.
2.
3.
4222425293034353940444549505455596064656970747579AgeWHtMPHtM(a)UnitedStates0.
1.
2.
3.
4202425293034353940444549505455596064656970747579AgeWHtMPHtM(b)UnitedKingdom0.
1.
2.
3.
4222425293034353940444549505455596064656970747579AgeWHtMPHtM(c)Italy0.
1.
2.
3.
4222425293034353940444549505455596064656970747579AgeWHtMPHtM(d)SpainKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
33/46MPCOFTHEW-HTMKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
34/46MPCoutoftransitoryincomeshocksDoW-HtM(andP-HtM)respondstronglytotransitoryyshocksChallenges:1.
Needpaneldataonincome,consumption,andwealth2.
IndividualincomeshocksarenotdirectlyobservedSolutions:1.
Bi-annualdatafrom1999-2011wavesofthePSID2.
IdenticationstrategyfromBlundell-Pistaferri-Preston(2008)Kaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
35/46BPPidenticationstrategyResiduallogincomeisasumofpermanent+i.
i.
d.
components:logyit=ηit+εitTransmissioncoefcientofshockεintoc:MPCε≡cov(cit,εit)var(εit)Assumehouseholdshavenoforesightaboutfutureshocks:cov(cit,ηi,t+1)=cov(cit,εi,t+1)=0ThenMPCεcanbeestimatedas:MPCε=cov(cit,yi,t+1)cov(yit,yi,t+1)Kaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
36/46ResultsMPCεP-HtMW-HtMN-HtMHtM-NWN-HtM-NWBaseline0.
2430.
3010.
1270.
2290.
201(0.
065)(0.
048)(0.
036)(0.
054)(0.
030)Note:BoostrappedSEbasedon250repetitionsKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
37/46ResultsMPCεP-HtMW-HtMN-HtMHtM-NWN-HtM-NWBaseline0.
2430.
3010.
1270.
2290.
201(0.
065)(0.
048)(0.
036)(0.
054)(0.
030)Note:BoostrappedSEbasedon250repetitionsW-HtMarethegroupwiththelargestpointestimatefortheMPCGapwiththeMPCoftheN-HtMstatisticallysignicantSplitbasedonnetworthuninformativeKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
37/46IMPLICATIONSOFW-HTMBEHAVIORFORFISCALPOLICYKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
38/46ImplicationsofW-HtMforscalpolicyIgnoringthatW-HtMareaseparategroupleadstoadistortedviewofeffectsofscalpolicyExamples:1.
Consumptionresponsetolump-sumtransfer(e.
g.
,FSP)2.
SizeasymmetryinresponsetoFSP3.
Optimaldesign(incometargeting)oftheFSP4.
Cross-countrydifferencesinaggregateCresponsetoFSPKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
39/46Threealternativemodels(U.
S.
SCF2010)SIM-2:StandardIncompleteMarketsmodelwith2assetsKaplanandViolante(2014):transactioncostof$1,000Threetypes:P-HtM,W-HtM,andN-HtMSIM-1:StandardIncompleteMarketsmodelwithoneassetOneassetversionofKV,calibratedtonetworthFewerHtM:itmissesallW-HtMSP-S:SPender-SavermodelSpenders(c=y)andSavers(forwardlookingasinSIM-1)RightnumberofHtM,butexaggeratestheirMPC(=1)Kaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
40/46MPCsoutof$500inthethreealternativemodelsSIM-2SIM-1SP-SP-HtMW-HtMN-HtMHtMN-HtMHtMN-HtMAverage0.
350.
440.
060.
140.
021.
000.
02LowIncome0.
340.
370.
160.
150.
041.
000.
04MiddleIncome0.
380.
440.
090.
110.
021.
000.
02HighIncome0.
310.
52-0.
020.
120.
011.
000.
01Age600.
390.
510.
130.
040.
041.
000.
04Kaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
41/46AggregatequarterlyMPCTransfersizeModelSIM-2SIM-1SP-S$5000.
180.
040.
35Sizeasymmetry$500.
290.
050.
35$2,0000.
050.
030.
35Incometargeting$500–bottomtercile0.
260.
070.
50$500–toptercile0.
200.
030.
34Kaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
42/46AggregatequarterlyMPCTransfersizeModelSIM-2SIM-1SP-S$5000.
180.
040.
35Sizeasymmetry$500.
290.
050.
35$2,0000.
050.
030.
35Incometargeting$500–bottomtercile0.
260.
070.
50$500–toptercile0.
200.
030.
34SIM-1(SP-S)under-(over-)estimatesCresponsetoFSPKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
42/46AggregatequarterlyMPCTransfersizeModelSIM-2SIM-1SP-S$5000.
180.
040.
35Sizeasymmetry$500.
290.
050.
35$2,0000.
050.
030.
35Incometargeting$500–bottomtercile0.
260.
070.
50$500–toptercile0.
200.
030.
34Kaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
43/46AggregatequarterlyMPCTransfersizeModelSIM-2SIM-1SP-S$5000.
180.
040.
35Sizeasymmetry$500.
290.
050.
35$2,0000.
050.
030.
35Incometargeting$500–bottomtercile0.
260.
070.
50$500–toptercile0.
200.
030.
34LargeFSPhavesmallerbang-for-the-buckKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
43/46AggregatequarterlyMPCTransfersizeModelSIM-2SIM-1SP-S$5000.
180.
040.
35Sizeasymmetry$500.
290.
050.
35$2,0000.
050.
030.
35Incometargeting$500–bottomtercile0.
260.
070.
50$500–toptercile0.
200.
030.
34Kaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
44/46AggregatequarterlyMPCTransfersizeModelSIM-2SIM-1SP-S$5000.
180.
040.
35Sizeasymmetry$500.
290.
050.
35$2,0000.
050.
030.
35Incometargeting$500–bottomtercile0.
260.
070.
50$500–toptercile0.
200.
030.
34High-income(W-HtM)householdsconsumetheirFSPaswellKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
44/46Cross-countrydifferencesinaggregateMPCoutof$500aucadeesfritukusaucadeesfritukus0.
05.
1.
15.
2.
25.
3.
35.
4EstimatedMPCunderSPSmodel0.
05.
1.
15.
2.
25.
3.
35.
4EstimatedMPCunderSIM1model.
1.
125.
15.
175.
2EstimatedMPCunderSIM2modelSIM1modelSPSmodel45degreelineKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
45/46ConclusionsNotallhand-to-mouthhouseholdsarecreatedequal.
.
.
.
.
.
anditmattersKaplan-Violante-Weidner,"TheWealthyHand-to-Mouth"p.
46/46
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