examinedjusewang

AuthorsYearofpublicationJournalTitleVolumePagesAnjumAqeel,MohammadSabihuddinButt2001Asia-PacificDevelopmentJournalTherelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowthinPakistan8101-110KamalRajDhungel2008Asia-PacificDevelopmentJournalAcausalrelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowthinNepal15137-150DilipM.
Nachane,RameshM.
Nadakarni,AjitV.
Karnik1988AppliedEconomicsCo-integrationandcausalitytestingoftheenergy-GDPrelationship:across-countrystudy201511-1531PublicDisclosureAuthorizedPublicDisclosureAuthorizedPublicDisclosureAuthorizedPublicDisclosureAuthorizedAbulM.
M.
Masih,RumiMasih1998AppliedEconomicsAmultivariatecointegratedmodellingapproachintestingtemporalcausalitybetweenenergyconsumption,realincomeandpriceswithanapplicationtotwoAsianLDCs301287-1298BenjaminS.
Cheng1997AppliedEconomicsLettersEnergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowthinBrazil,MexicoandVenezuela:atimeseriesanalysis4671-674ZhidAsghar2008AppliedEconometricsandInternationalDevelopmentEnergy-GDPrelationship:AcausalanalysisforthefivecountriesofSouthAsia8(1)167-180TianqingSun,XiaohuaWang,XianguoMa2009AppliedEnergyRelationshipbetweentheeconomiccostandthereliabilityoftheelectricpowersupplysystemincity:AcaseinShanghaiofChina862262-2267Xing-PingZhang,Xiao-MeiCheng2009EcologicalEconomicsEnergyconsumption,carbonemissions,andeconomicgrowthinChina682706-2712UgurSoytas,RamazanSari2009EcologicalEconomicsEnergyconsumption,economicgrowth,andcarbonemissions:ChallengesfacedbyanEUcandidatemember681667-1675Bwo-NungHuang,M.
J.
Hwang,C.
W.
Yang2008EcologicalEconomicsCausalrelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandGDPgrowthrevisited:Adynamicpaneldataapproach6741-54PareshKumarNarayan,StephanPopp2012EconomicModellingTheenergyconsumption-realGDPnexusrevisited:Empiricalevidencefrom93countries29303-308IlhanOzturk2010EnergyPolicyAliteraturesurveyonenergy–growthnexus38340-349EdenS.
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Yu,Been-KweiHwang1984EnergyEconomicsTherelationshipbetweenenergyandGNPJuly186-190HarriduttRamcharran1990EnergyEconomicsElectricityconsumptionandeconomicgrowthinJamaicaJanuary65-70DavidI.
Stern1993EnergyEconomicsEnergyandeconomicgrowthintheUSAApril137-150AbulM.
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Masih,RumiMasih1996EnergyEconomicsEnergyconsumption,realincomeandtemporalcausality:resultsfromamulti-countrystudybasedoncointegrationanderror-correctionmodellingtechniques18165-183BenjaminS.
Cheng,TinWeiLai1997EnergyEconomicsAninvestigationofco-integrationandcausalitybetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicactivityinTaiwan19435-444DavidI.
Stern2000EnergyEconomicsAmultivariatecointegrationanalysisoftheroleofenergyintheUSmacroeconomy22267-283JohnAsafu-Adjaye2000EnergyEconomicsTherelationshipbetweenenergyconsumption,energypricesandeconomicgrowth:timeseriesevidencefromAsiandevelopingcountries22615-625Hao-YenYang2000EnergyEconomicsAnoteonthecausalrelationshipbetweenenergyandGDPinTaiwan22309-317GeorgeHondroyiannis,SarantisLolos,EvangeliaPapapetrou2002EnergyEconomicsEnergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowth:AssessingtheevidencefromGreece24319-336YongU.
Glasure2002EnergyEconomicsEnergyandnationalincomeinKorea:furtherevidenceontheroleofomittedvariables24355-365UgurSoytas,RamazanSari2003EnergyEconomicsEnergyconsumptionandGDP:causalityrelationshipinG-7countriesandemergingmarkets2533-37CharlesB.
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Jumbe2004EnergyEconomicsCointegrationandcausalitybetweenelectricityconsumptionandGDP:empiricalevidencefromMalawi2661-68RisakoMorimoto,ChrisHope2004EnergyEconomicsTheimpactofelectricitysupplyoneconomicgrowthinSriLanka2677-85KhalifaH.
Ghali,M.
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El-Sakka2004EnergyEconomicsEnergyuseandoutputgrowthinCanada:amultivariatecointegrationanalysis26225-238ShyamalPaul,RabindraN.
Bhattacharya2004EnergyEconomicsCausalitybetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowthinIndia:anoteonconflictingresults26977-983WankeunOh,KihoonLee2004EnergyEconomicsCausalrelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandGDPrevisited:thecaseofKorea1970-19992651-59YemaneWolde-Rufael2004EnergyEconomicsDisaggregatedindustrialenergyconsumptionandGDP:thecaseofShanghai,1952-19992669-75GalipAltinay,ErdalKaragol2004EnergyEconomicsStructuralbreak,unitroot,andthecausalitybetweenenergyconsumptionandGDPinTurkey26985-994GalipAltinay,ErdalKaragol2005EnergyEconomicsElectricityconsumptionandeconomicgrowth:EvidencefromTurkey27849-856Chien-ChiangLee2005EnergyEconomicsEnergyconsumptionandGDPindevelopingcountries:Acointegratedpanelanalysis27415-427Chien-ChiangLee,Chun-PingChang2005EnergyEconomicsStructuralbreaks,energyconsumption,andeconomicgrowthrevisited:EvidencefromTaiwan27857-872TheodorosZachariadis,NicolettaPashourtidou2007EnergyEconomicsAnempiricalanalysisofelectricityconsumptioninCyprus29183-198JaySqualli2007EnergyEconomicsElectricityconsumptionandeconomicgrowth:BoundsandcausalityanalysesofOPECmembers291192-1205PareshKumarNarayan,BaljeetSingh2007EnergyEconomicsTheelectricityconsumptionandGDPnexusfortheFijiIslands291141-1150JiahaiYuan,ChanghongZhao,ShunkunYu,ZhaoguangHu2007EnergyEconomicsElectricityconsumptionandeconomicgrowthinChina:Cointegrationandco-featureanalysis291179-1191MehrzadZamani2007EnergyEconomicsEnergyconsumptionandeconomicactivitiesinIran291135-1140WietzeLise,KeesVanMontfort2007EnergyEconomicsEnergyconsumptionandGDPinTurkey:Isthereaco-integrationrelationship291166-1178Chien-ChiangLee,Chun-PingChang2007EnergyEconomicsEnergyconsumptionandGDPrevisited:Apanelanalysisofdevelopedanddevelopingcountries291206-1223BrianM.
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611295-1304AbstractThispaperinvestigatesthecausalrelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowthandenergyconsumptionandemploymentinPakistan.
Byapplyingtechniquesofco-integrationandHsiao'sversionofGrangercausality,theresultsinferthateconomicgrowthcausestotalenergyconsumption.
Economicgrowthalsoleadstogrowthinpetroleumconsumption,whileontheotherhand,neithereconomicgrowthnorgasconsumptionaffecteachother.
However,inthepowersectorithasbeenfoundthatelectricityconsumptionleadstoeconomicgrowthwithoutfeedback.
Theimplicationsofthestudyarethatenergyconservationpolicyregardingpetroleumconsumptionwouldnotleadtoanyside-effectsoneconomicgrowthinPakistan.
However,anenergygrowthpolicyinthecaseofgasandelectricityconsumptionshouldbeadoptedinsuchawaythatitstimulatesgrowthintheeconomyandthusexpandsemploymentopportunities.
Inthepresentpaper,anattemptismadetoexaminethecausalrelationshipbetweenthepercapitaconsumptionofcoal,electricity,oilandtotalcommercialenergyandthepercapitarealgrossdomesticproduct(GDP),usingaco-integrationandvectorerrorcorrectionmodel.
TheincreaseinrealGDP,amongotherthings,indicatesahigherdemandforalargequantityofcommercialenergysuchascoal,oilandelectricity.
Thisimpliesthatlowinfrastructuredevelopmentlimitstheusageofcommercialenergy,whichmayalsoholdbackeconomicgrowth.
Empiricalfindingsrevealthatthereisaunidirectionalcausalityrunningfromcoal,oilandcommercialenergyconsumptiontopercapitarealGDP,whereasaunidirectionalcausalityrunningfrompercapitarealGDPtopercapitaelectricityconsumptionisfound.
ItissuggestedthattheinputofpercapitaenergyconsumptionstimulatesenhancedeconomicgrowthinNepal.
Inthispaper,theenergy-GDPrelationship(inpercapitaterms)isanalyzedforasampleof16countries,overthetimeperiod1950-51to1984-85.
Co-integrationtheoryisfirstusedtotestwhetheralong-runequilibriumrelationexistsbetweenthetwovariables.
Afterco-integrationhasbeenestablished,causalitymeasuresareconstructedtoquantifyvarioustypesoffeedbackbetweenenergyandGDPforeachcountry.
Itisthenexaminedwhetherthecausalitymeasuresarelongitudinallyrelatedtocertainbasiceconomicindicatorsofthecountriesinthesample.
Unlikepreviousstudiesonthecasualrelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowth,thispaperillustrateshowthefindingofcointegration(i.
e.
long-termequilibriumrelationship)betweenthesevariables,maybeusedintestingGrangercausality.
BasedonthemostrecentJohansen'smultiplecointegrationtestsprecededbyvariousunitrootornonstationaritytests,wetestforcointegrationbetweentotalenergyconsumption,realincomeandpriceleveloftwoAsianLDCs:ThailandandSriLanka.
NonrejectionofcointegrationbetweenvariablesrulesoutGrangernoncausalityandimpliesatleastonewayofGranger-causalityeitherunidirectionalorbidirectional.
Secondly,byusingadynamicvectorerror-correctionmodel,wethenanalysethedirectionofGranger-causationandhencethewithin-sampleGrangerexogeneityorendogeneityofeachofthevariables.
Thirdly,therelativestrengthofthecausalityisgauged(throughthedynamicvariancedecompositiontechnique)bydecomposingthetotalimpactofanunanticipatedshocktoeachofthevariablesbeyondthesampleperiod,intoproportionsattributabletoshocksintheothervariablesincludingitsown,inthemultivariatesystem.
Finally,theseresponsepathsofshockstothesystemaretracedoutusingimpulseresponsegraphs.
Resultsbasedonthesefourtoolsofmethodology,broadlyindicatethatallthreevariablesarecointegratedandexhibittwocommontrendswithineachsystem.
EnergyconsumptionseemstoberelativelyexogenousasneitherincomenorpricesseemstoGrangercausethisvariableviaanyofthechannelswherepotentialcasualitymayoccur.
Though,energyconsumptionitselfplaysanimportantroleininuencingincomeandpricesbyvaryingdegreesofsignicanceforeachcountry.
Overall,shockstothesystemseemedtohavehadamoresustainedifnotpronouncedeectinThailandthaninSriLanka.
ApplyingrecentlydevelopedtechniquesofcointegrationandHsiao'sversionofGrangercausalitytothreeLatincountries(Brazil,Mexico,andVenezuela),thisstudyfindsnocausallinkagesbetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowthforbothMexicoandVenezuelausingthetrivariatemodels.
However,capitalisfoundtonegatively,thoughweakly,causeeconomicgrowthforbothMexicoandVenezuela.
Additionally,energyisfoundtocauseeconomicgrowthforBrazil.
Insum,wedetectnoconsistentcausalpatternsbetweenenergyandeconomicgrowthbasedonthecausalitytestsfromthethreeLatincountries.
WeinvestigatethecausalrelationshipbetweenGDPanddifferenttypesofenergyconsumptionforthefiveSouthAsianCountries;Pakistan,India,SriLanka,BangladeshandNepalbyusingErrorCorrectionModelandTodaandYamamoto(1995)approach.
ForPakistanevidenceshowsthatthereisunidirectionalGrangercausalityrunningfromcoaltoGDP,andunidirectionalGrangercausalityrunningfromGDPtoelectricityconsumptionandtotalenergyconsumption.
ForIndianocausalityineitherdirectionbetweenGDPanddifferentenergyconsumptionisdetected.
ForSriLankathereisunidirectionalGrangercausalityrunningfromGDPtoelectricityconsumptionandtotalenergyconsumption.
ForBangladeshunidirectionalGrangercausalityisdetectedfromGDPtoelectricityconsumptionandfromgasconsumptiontoGDP.
ForNepalcausaldirectionisfrompetroleumtoGDP.
ThispaperpresentsamodeltoquantifytheimpactofelectricpoweroutagesonGDPbyusingCobb–Douglasproductionfunctiontodevelopaneconomicrelationshipbetweenthereliabilityoftheelectricpowersupplysystemandthecostofelectricenergyunserved.
Ourfindingsshowthataveragecostsforprovidingastablepowersupplyaremuchlowerthandisruptioncosts,whichissupportedbyrecurringtothedataavailableofShanghai.
EstimatedbyusingShanghai'smacroeconomicdataof1990–2006,thisrelationshipindicatesthattheimpactofelectricityservicedisruptiononShanghai'sGDPisabout48.
18108CNYin2006,matchinganalternative''back-of-envelope"estimateof50.
91108CNY.
TheestimatedcostsperkWhunservedare1.
81–10.
26CNYin1990–2006,mirroringtheincreasingimportanceofelectricityintheperiod'seconomicdevelopment.
Theseresultsdemonstratetheusefulnessofourapproachforquantifyingthereliabilitybenefitsofinvestmentsinelectricityinfrastructure.
ThispaperinvestigatestheexistenceanddirectionofGrangercausalitybetweeneconomicgrowth,energyconsumption,andcarbonemissionsinChina,applyingamultivariatemodelofeconomicgrowth,energyuse,carbonemissions,capitalandurbanpopulation.
EmpiricalresultsforChinaovertheperiod1960–2007suggestaunidirectionalGrangercausalityrunningfromGDPtoenergyconsumption,andaunidirectionalGrangercausalityrunningfromenergyconsumptiontocarbonemissionsinthelongrun.
Evidenceshowsthatneithercarbonemissionsnorenergyconsumptionleadseconomicgrowth.
Therefore,thegovernmentofChinacanpurseconservativeenergypolicyandcarbonemissionsreductionpolicyinthelongrunwithoutimpedingeconomicgrowth.
ThispaperinvestigatesthelongrunGrangercausalityrelationshipbetweeneconomicgrowth,carbondioxideemissionsandenergyconsumptioninTurkey,controllingforgrossfixedcapitalformationandlabor.
ThemostinterestingresultisthatcarbonemissionsseemtoGrangercauseenergyconsumption,butthereverseisnottrue.
Thelackofalongruncausallinkbetweenincomeandemissionsmaybeimplyingthattoreducecarbonemissions,Turkeydoesnothavetoforgoeconomicgrowth.
ThispaperusesthepaneldataofenergyconsumptionandGDPfor82countriesfrom1972to2002.
BasedontheincomelevelsdefinedbytheWorldBank,thedataaredividedintofourcategories:lowincomegroup,lowermiddleincomegroup,uppermiddleincomegroup,andhighincomegroup.
WeemploytheGMM-SYSapproachfortheestimationofthepanelVARmodelineachofthefourgroups.
Afterwards,thecausalrelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowthistestedandascertained.
Wediscover:(a)inthelowincomegroup,thereexistsnocausalrelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowth;(b)inthemiddleincomegroups(loweranduppermiddleincomegroups),economicgrowthleadsenergyconsumptionpositively;(c)inthehighincomegroupcountries,economicgrowthleadsenergyconsumptionnegatively.
Afterfurtherin-depthanalysisofenergyrelateddata,theresultsindicatethat,inthehighincomegroup,thereisagreatenvironmentalimprovementasaresultofmoreefficientenergyuseandreductioninthereleaseofCO2.
However,intheuppermiddleincomegroupcountries,aftertheenergycrisis,theenergyefficiencydeclinesandthereleaseofCO2rises.
Sincethereisnoevidenceindicatingthatenergyconsumptionleadseconomicgrowthinanyofthefourincomegroups,astrongerenergyconservationpolicyshouldbepursuedinallcountries.
Inthispaper,weanalysethelong-runrelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandrealGDPfor93countries.
WefindmixedresultsontheimpactofenergyconsumptiononrealGDP,withgreaterevidenceatthecountrylevelsupportingenergyconsumptionhavinganegativecausaleffectonrealGDP.
FortheG6panelofcountries,wefindsignificantevidencethatenergyconsumptionnegativelyGrangercausesrealGDP.
Thismeansthatforcountrieswhereenergyconsumptionhasanegativelong-runcausaleffectonrealGDP,energyconversationpoliciesshouldnotretardeconomicgrowth.
Weidentifythesecountriesandregionalpanels.
Wearguethatthesecountries/regionsshouldplayagreaterroleinreducingcarbondioxideemissions.
Thispaperprovidesasurveyoftherecentprogressintheliteratureofenergyconsumption-economicgrowthandelectricityconsumption-economicgrowthcausalitynexus.
Thesurveyhighlightsthatmostempiricalstudiesfocusoneithertestingtheroleofenergy(electricity)instimulatingeconomicgrowthorexaminingthedirectionofcausalitybetweenthesetwovariables.
Althoughtthepositiveroleofenergyongrowthhasbecomeastylizedfact,therearesomemethodologicalreservationsabouttheresultsfromtheseempiricalstudies.
Ageneralobservationfromthesestudiesisthattheliteratureproducedconflictingresultsandthereisnoconsensusneitherontheexistencenoronthedirectionofcausalitybetweenenergyconsumption(electricityconsumption)andeconomicgrowth.
Asapolicyimplication,toavoidfromconflictingandunreliableresults,theauthorsmayusetheautoregressivedistributedlagsboundstest,two-regimethresholdco-integrationmodels,paneldataapproachandmultivariatemodelsincludingnewvariables(suchas:realgrossfixedcapitalformation,laborforce,carbondioxideemissions,population,exchangerates,interestrates,etc.
)Thus,theauthorsshouldfocusmoreonthenewapproachesandperspectivesratherthanbyemployingusualmethodsbasedonasetofcommonvariablesfordifferentcountriesanddifferentintervalsoftime.
ThispaperreexaminesthecausalitybetweenGNPandenergyconsumptionbyusingupdatedUSdatafortheperiod1947-1979.
Asasecondarycontribution,weinvestigatethecausalrelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandemployment.
ApplyingSims'technique,weftndnocausalrelationshipbetweenGNPandenergyconsumption.
Wefindfurtherthatthereisaslightunidirectionalflowrunningfromemploymenttoenergyconsumption.
Economicinterpretationsoftheempiricalresultsarealsopresented.
ThisstudyexaminestherelationshipbetweenelectricityconsumptionandeconomicgrowthinJamaicaduring1970-86,aperiodofrapidincreaseinenergyprices.
Theresultsshowthattheaggregatedemandforelectricityisslightlyincomeelastic,electricityhasasigntjicantimpactoneconomicgrowth,theelectricityintensityhasincreasedovertime,residentialdemandisfairlyincomeelastic,commercialdemandispriceinelastic,andtherateofadjustmentisslow.
Theseresultssuggestthatconservationpoliciescouldbeineflective.
Therefore,indigenoussourcesofelectricityareimportantforJamaicatobelessdependentonimportedenergy.
ThispaperexaminesthecausalrelationshipbetweenGDPandenergyusefortheperiod1947-90intheUSA.
Therelationshipbetweenenergyuseandeconomicgrowthhasbeenexaminedbybothbiophysicalandneoclassicaleconomists.
Inparticular,severalstudieshavetestedforthepresenceofacausalrelationship(intheGrangersense>betweenenergyuseandeconomicgrowth.
However,thesetestsdonotallowadirecttestoftherelativeexplanatorypowersoftheneoclassicalandbiophysica2models.
Amultivariateadaptationofthetest-vectorautoregression(VAR)doesallowsuchatest.
AVARofGDP,energyuse,capitalstockandemploymentisestimatedandGrangertestsforcausalrelationshipsbetweenthevariablesarecarriedout.
AlthoughthereisnoevidencethatgrossenergyuseGrangercausesGDP,ameasureofjinalenergyuseadjustedforchangingfuelcompositiondoesGrangercauseGDP.
Unlikepreviousstudiesonthecausalrelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowth,thispaperillustrateshowthefindingofcointegration(i.
e.
long-termequilibriumrelationship)betweenthesevariables,maybeusedintestingGrangercausality.
BasedonthemostrecentJohansen'smultivariatecointegrationtestsprecededbyvariousunitrootornon-stationaritytests,wetestforcointegrationbetweentotalenergyconsumptionandrealincomeofsixAsianeconomies:India,Pakistan,Malaysia,Singapore,IndonesiaandthePhilippines.
Non-rejectionofcointegrationbetweenvariablesrulesoutGrangernon-causalityandimplesatleastonewayofGranger-causality,eitherunidirectionalorbidirectionial.
Secondly,byusingadynamicvectorerror-correctionmodel,wethenanalysethedirectionofGranger-causationandhencethewithin-sampleGranger-exogeneityorendogeneityofeachofthevariables.
Thirdly,therelativestrengthofthecausalityisgauged(throughthedynamicvariancedecompositiontechnique)bydecomposingthetotalimpactofanunanticipatedshocktoeachofthevariablesbeyondthesampleperiod,intoproportionsattributabletoshocksintheothervariablesincludingitsown,inthebivariatesystem.
Resultsbasedonthesetoolsofmethodologyindicatethatwhileallpair-wiserelationshipssharedcommonunivariateintegrationalproperties,onlyrelationshipsforthreecountries(India,PakistanandIndonesia)werecointegrated.
Forthesecountries,temporalcausalityresultsweremixedwithunidirectionalcausalityfromenergytoincomeforIndia,exactlythereverseforIndonesia,andmutualcausalityforPakistan.
TheVDCswerenotinconsistentwiththeseresultsandprovideduswithanadditionalinsightastotherelativelymoredominantdirectionofcausationinPakistan.
Simplebivariatevector-autoregressivemodelsforthethreenon-cointegratedsystemsdidnotindicateanydirectionofcausality,significantlyineitherdirection.
ApplyingHsiao'sversionoftheGrangercausalitymethod,thispaperexaminesthecausalitybetweenenergyandGNPandenergyandemploymentbyapplyingrecentlydevelopedtechniquesofco-integrationandHsiao'sversionoftheGrangercausalitytoTaiwanesedataforthe1955-1993period.
ThePhillips-PerrontestsrevealthattheserieswiththeexceptionofGNParenotstationaryandthereforedifferencingisperformedtosecurestationarity.
ThestudyfindscausalityrunningfromGDPtoenergyconsumptionwithoutfeedbackinTaiwan.
ItisalsofoundthatcausalityrunsfromGDPtoenergybutnotviceversa.
ThispaperextendsmypreviousanalysisofthecausalrelationshipofGDPandenergyuseintheUSAinthepost-warperiod.
Amajorityoftherelevantvariablesareintegratedjustifyingacointegrationanalysis.
Theresultsshowthatcointegrationdoesoccurandthatenergyinputcannotbeexcludedfromthecointegrationspace.
Theresultsareplausibleintermsofmacroeconomicdynamics.
TheresultsaresimilartomypreviousGrangercausalityresultsandcontradictclaimsintheliteraturebasedonbivariatemodels.
thatthereisnocointegrationbetweenenergyandoutput.
ThispaperestimatesthecausalrelationshipsbetweenenergyconsumptionandincomeforIndia,Indonesia,thePhilippinesandThailand,usingcointegrationanderror-correctionmodellingtechniques.
Theresultsindicatethat,intheshort-run,unidirectionalGrangercausalityrunsfromenergytoincomeforIndiaandIndonesia,whilebidirectionalGrangercausalityrunsfromenergytoincomeforThailandandthePhilippines.
InthecaseofThailandandthePhilippines,energy,incomeandpricesaremutuallycausal.
Thestudyresultsdonotsupporttheviewthatenergyandincomeareneutralwithrespecttoeachother,withtheexceptionofIndonesiaandIndiawhereneutralityisobservedintheshort-run.
Thispaperre-examinesthecausalitybetweenenergyconsumptionandGDPbyusingupdatedTaiwandatafortheperiod1954]1997.
Asasecondarycontribution,weinvestigatethecausalrelationshipbetweenGDPandtheaggregateaswellasseveraldisaggregatecategoriesofenergyconsumption,includingcoal,oil,naturalgas,andelectricity.
ApplyingGranger'stechnique,wefindbidirectionalcausalitybetweentotalenergyconsumptionandGDP.
WefindfurtherthatdifferentdirectionsofcauseexistbetweenGDPandvariouskindsofenergyconsumption.
Thispaperattemptstoshedlightintotheempiricalrelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowth,forGreece19601996.
employingthevectorerror-correctionmodelestimation.
Thevectorspecificationincludesenergyconsumption,realGDPandpricedevelopments,thelattertakentorepresentameasureofeconomicefficiency.
Theempiricalevidencesuggeststhatthereisalong-runrelationshipbetweenthethreevariables,supportingtheendogeneityofenergyconsumptionandrealoutput.
Thesefindingshaveimportantpolicyimplications,sincetheadoptionofsuitablestructuralpoliciesaimingatimprovingeconomicefficiencycaninduceenergyconservationwithoutimpedingeconomicgrowth.
Resultsofthispaperindicatethattherealoilpriceisamajordeterminantofrealnationalincomeandenergyconsumption.
Thecombinedeffectsofrealmoneyandrealgovernmentexpenditureonrealincomeandenergyconsumptionarealsosubstantial.
Alackofcausalityorthecausalitybetweenenergyandrealincomeinpriorstudiesisduetotheomittedvariables.
Resultsalsoconfirmthatthetwooilpriceshockscombinedadverselyaffectedrealnationalincome.
Thecausalityrelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandincomeisawell-studiedtopicinenergyeconomics.
ThispaperstudiesthetimeseriespropertiesofenergyconsumptionandGDPandreexaminesthecausalityrelationshipbetweenthetwoseriesinthetop10emergingmarketsexcludingChinaduetolackofdataandG-7countries.
Wediscoverbi-directionalcausalityinArgentina,causalityrunningfromGDPtoenergyconsumptioninItalyandKorea,andfromenergyconsumptiontoGDPinTurkey,France,GermanyandJapan.
Hence,energyconservationmayharmeconomicgrowthinthelastfourcountries.
TheGranger-causality(GC)anderrorcorrection(ECM)techniqueswereappliedon1970–1999dataforMalawitoexaminecointegrationandcausalitybetweenelectricityconsumption(kWh)and,respectively,overallGDP,agricultural-GDP(AGDP)andnonagricultural-GDP(NGDP).
CointegrationwasestablishedbetweenkWhand,respectively,GDPandNGDP,butnotwithAGDP.
TheGCresultsdetectbi-directionalcausalitybetweenkWhandGDPsuggestingthatkWhandGDParejointlydetermined,butone-waycausalityrunningfromNGDPtokWh.
TheECMresultsdetectcausalityrunningone-wayfromGDP(alsofromNGDP)tokWhsuggestingthatapermanentriseinGDPmaycauseapermanentgrowthinelectricityconsumption.
Yang(EnergyEcon.
22(2000)309)hasfoundabi-directionalcausalrelationshipbetweengrossdomesticproductandelectricityconsumptioninTaiwan,ROC.
ThisstudyappliesYang'smodeltoexaminetheimpactofelectricitysupplyoneconomicgrowthinSriLanka.
MorimotoandHope(AnextendedCBAmodelofhydroprojectsinSriLanka(2001))havefoundthattheexpectedincreaseineconomicoutputduetoincreasedelectricitysupply(parameterEO)playsacrucialroleintheircostbenefitanalysismodel.
ThisstudyshowsthattheapplicationofYang'sregressionanalysisisonepossibleapproachtoestimateabetterrangefortheparameterEO.
TheestimatedfigureisthatanextraoutputofRs.
88000–137000($US1120–1740)forevery1MWhincreaseinelectricitysupply.
Usinganeo-classicalone-sectoraggregateproductiontechnologywherecapital,laborandenergyaretreatedasseparateinputs,thispaperdevelopsavectorerror-correction(VEC)modeltotestfortheexistenceanddirectionofcausalitybetweenoutputgrowthandenergyuseinCanada.
UsingtheJohansencointegrationtechnique,theempiricalfindingsindicatethatthelong-runmovementsofoutput,labor,capitalandenergyuseinCanadaarerelatedbytwocointegratingvectors.
ThenusingaVECspecification,theshort-rundynamicsofthevariablesindicatethatGranger-causalityisrunninginbothdirectionsbetweenoutputgrowthandenergyuse.
Hence,animportantpolicyimplicationoftheanalysisisthatenergycanbeconsideredasalimitingfactortooutputgrowthinCanada.
ThisnoteexaminesthedifferentdirectionofcausalrelationbetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowthinIndia.
ApplyingEngle–GrangercointegrationapproachcombinedwiththestandardGrangercausalitytestonIndiandatafortheperiod1950–1996,wefindthatbi-directionalcausalityexistsbetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowth.
Further,weapplyJohansenmultivariatecointegrationtechniqueonthedifferentsetofvariables.
Thesamedirectionofcausalityexistsbetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowth.
Thisisdifferentfromtheresultsobtainedinearlierstudies.
Causalrelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowthisinvestigatedapplyingamultivariatemodelofcapital,labor,energyandGDP.
UsualBTUenergyaggregateissubstitutedwithaDivisiaaggregateinanattempttomitigateaggregationbias.
TotestforGrangercausalityinthepresenceofcointegrationamongthevariables,weemployavectorerrorcorrectionmodelratherthanavectorautoregressivemodel.
EmpiricalresultsforKoreaovertheperiod1970–1999suggestalongrunbidirectionalcausalrelationshipbetweenenergyandGDP,andshortrununidirectionalcausalityrunningfromenergytoGDP.
Thesourceofcausationinthelongrunisfoundtobetheerrorcorrectiontermsinbothdirections.
ThispaperinvestigatesthecausalrelationshipbetweenvariouskindsofindustrialenergyconsumptionandGDPinShanghaifortheperiod1952–1999usingamodifiedversionoftheGranger(1969)causalitytestproposedbyTodaandYamamoto(J.
Econ.
66(1995)225).
Theempiricalevidencefromdisaggregatedenergyseriesseemstosuggestthattherewasauni-directionalGrangercausalityrunningfromcoal,coke,electricityandtotalenergyconsumptiontorealGDPbutnoGrangercausalityrunninginanydirectionbetweenoilconsumptionandrealGDP.
ThispapertriestoinvestigateaseriesofunitrootandcausalityteststodetectcausalitybetweentheGDPandenergyconsumptioninTurkeyemployingHsiao'sversionofGrangercausalitymethodforthe1950–2000period.
TheconventionalunitroottestsindicatetheseriesareI(1),whereastheendogenousbreakunitroottestsproposedbyZivotandAndrews[Zivot,E.
andAndrews,D.
W.
K.
,1992,Furtherevidenceonthegreatcrash,theoilpriceshock,andtheunitroothypothesis,JournalofBusinessandEconomicsStatistics10,251–270.
]andPerron[Perron,P.
,1997,Furtherevidenceonbreakingtrendfunctionsinmacroeconomicvariables,JournalofEconometrics80,355–385.
]revealthattheseriesaretrendstationarywithastructuralbreak.
Therefore,itisinappropriatetotakethefirstdifferenceofthedatatoachievestationarity.
ThemainconclusionofthisstudyisthatthereisnoevidenceofcausalitybetweenenergyconsumptionandGDPinTurkeybasedonthedetrendeddata.
ThisstudyinvestigatesthecausalrelationshipbetweenelectricityconsumptionandrealGDPinTurkeyduringtheperiodof1950–2000.
BothoftheserieswerefoundtobeastationaryprocessaroundastructuralbreakbytheZivotandAndrewstest.
Thus,twodifferentmethodologieshavebeenemployedtotesttheGrangernon-causality:theDolado–Lu¨tkepohltestusingtheVARsinlevels,andthestandardGrangercausalitytestusingthedetrendeddata.
Bothtestshaveyieldedastrongevidenceforunidirectionalcausalityrunningfromtheelectricityconsumptiontotheincome.
Thisimpliesthatthesupplyofelectricityisvitallyimportanttomeetthegrowingelectricityconsumption,hencetosustaintheeconomicgrowthinTurkey.
Inthispaperwere-investigatetheco-movementandthecausalityrelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandGDPin18developingcountries,usingdatafortheperiod1975to2001.
Recentlydevelopedtestsforthepanelunitroot,heterogeneouspanelcointegration,andpanel-basederrorcorrectionmodelsareemployed.
Theempiricalresultsprovideclearsupportofalong-runcointegrationrelationshipafterallowingfortheheterogeneouscountryeffect.
Thelong-runrelationshipisestimatedusingafull-modifiedOLS.
Theevidenceshowsthatlong-runandshort-runcausalitiesrunfromenergyconsumptiontoGDP,butnotviceversa.
Thisresultindicatesthatenergyconservationmayharmeconomicgrowthindevelopingcountriesregardlessofbeingtransitoryorpermanent.
ThispaperstudiesthestabilitybetweenenergyconsumptionandGDPforTaiwanduring1954–2003.
Weuseaggregateaswellasvariousdisaggregatedataofenergyconsumption,includingcoal,oil,gas,andelectricity,toemploytheunitroottestsandthecointegrationtestsallowingforstructuralbreaks.
Ourmainfindingsare:First,thoughgasconsumptionseemstohavestructuralbreaksinthe1960s,afterconsideringthestructuralbreaks,theseriesisastationaryvariablewhenTaiwanadopteditsexpansionaryexporttradepolicy.
Second,wefindthatdifferentdirectionsofcausalityexistbetweenGDPandvariouskindsofenergyconsumption.
Theempiricalresultshowsunanimouslyinthelongrunthatenergyactsasanengineofeconomicgrowth,andthatenergyconservationmayharmeconomicgrowth.
Third,thecointegrationbetweenenergyconsumptionandGDPisunstable,andsomeeconomiceventsmayaffectthestability.
Overall,wedofindthestructuralbreakpoints,andtheylooktomatchclearlywiththecorrespondingcriticaleconomicincidents.
ThepaperpresentsthefirstempiricalanalysisofelectricityconsumptioninCyprus.
Usingannualdatafrom1960to2004,wehaveexaminedelectricityuseintheresidentialandtheservicessectors,whicharethefastest-growingelectricityconsumersintheisland,anditsinteractionwithincome,pricesandtheweather.
Theanalysiswasperformedwiththeaidoftimeseriesanalysistechniquessuchasunitroottestswithandwithoutastructuralbreakinlevels,cointegrationtests,VectorErrorCorrectionmodels,Grangercausalitytestsandimpulseresponsefunctions.
Resultsshowlong-termelasticitiesofelectricityuseaboveunityforincome,andoftheorderof0.
3to0.
4forprices.
Intheshort-termelectricityconsumptionisratherinelastic,mostlyaffectedbyweatherfluctuations.
Grangercausalitytestsconfirmexogeneityofelectricitypricesandbidirectionalcausalitybetweenresidentialelectricityconsumptionandprivateincome.
Thecommercialsectorislesselasticandrevertsfastertoequilibriumthantheresidentialsector.
Despitetherelativelysmallsamplesize,resultsreportedherearequiterobustandcanbeusedforforecastsandpolicyanalyses.
ThispaperinvestigatestherelationshipbetweenelectricityconsumptionandeconomicgrowthforOPECmembers.
Theboundstestyieldsevidenceofalong-runrelationshipbetweenelectricityconsumptionandeconomicgrowthforallOPECmembers.
Causalityresultssuggestthateconomicgrowthisdependentonelectricityconsumptioninfivecountries,lessdependentinthreecountries,andindependentinthreecountries.
Becausethesecountriesdonotnecessarilysharesimilarpoliticalandeconomictraits,nosingleuniversalpolicyimplicationcanbeinferredfromtheresults.
Thedisparitiesacrossthesecausalityresults,therefore,stresstheimportanceofformulatingcausalityexplanationswhiletakingintoaccounttheparticularitiesofindividualcountriesratherthanblindlyapplyingtheconventionalinterpretations.
Fijiisasmallopenislandeconomydependentonenergyforitsgrowthanddevelopment;hence,therelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowthiscrucialforFiji'sdevelopment.
Inthispaper,weinvestigatethenexusbetweenelectricityconsumptionandeconomicgrowthforFijiwithinamultivariateframeworkthroughincludingthelabourforcevariable.
Weusetheboundstestingapproachtocointegrationandfindthatelectricityconsumption,GDPandlabourforceareonlycointegratedwhenGDPistheendogenousvariable.
WeusetheGrangercausalityF-testandfindthatinthelong-runcausalityrunsfromelectricityconsumptionandlabourforcetoGDP,implyingthatFijiisanenergydependentcountryandthusenergyconservationpolicieswillhaveanadverseeffectonFiji'seconomicgrowth.
ThispaperappliesthecointegrationtheorytoexaminethecausalrelationshipbetweenelectricityconsumptionandrealGDP(GrossDemosticProduct)forChinaduring1978–2004.
OurestimationresultsindicatethatrealGDPandelectricityconsumptionforChinaarecointegratedandthereisonlyunidirectionalGrangercausalityrunningfromelectricityconsumptiontorealGDPbutnottheviceversa.
ThenHodrick–Prescott(HP)filterisappliedtodecomposethetrendandfluctuationcomponentoftheGDPandelectricityconsumptionseries.
Theestimationresultsindicatethatthereiscointegrationbetweennotonlythetrendcomponents,butalsothecyclicalcomponentsofthetwoseries,whichimpliesthat,theGrangercausalityisprobablyrelatedwiththebusinesscycle.
TheestimationresultsareofpolicyimplicationtothedevelopmentofelectricsectorinChina.
ThecausalrelationshipbetweenoverallGDP,industrialandagriculturalvalueaddedandconsumptionofdifferentkindsofenergyareinvestigatedusingvectorerrorcorrectionmodelforthecaseofIranwithin1967–2003.
Along-rununidirectionalrelationshipfromGDPtototalenergyandbidirectionalrelationshipbetweenGDPandgasaswellasGDPandpetroleumproductsconsumptionforthewholeeconomywasdiscovered.
Causalityisrunningfromvalueaddedtototalenergy,electricity,gasandpetroleumproductsconsumptionandfromgasconsumptiontovalueaddedinindustrialsector.
Thelong-runbidirectionalrelationsholdbetweenvalueaddedandtotalenergy,electricityandpetroleumproductsconsumptionintheagriculturalsector.
Theshort-runcausalityrunsfromGDPtototalenergyandpetroleumproductsconsumption,andalsoindustrialvalueaddedtototalenergyandpetroleumproductsconsumptioninthissector.
EnergyconsumptionandGDPareexpectedtogrowby5.
9%and7%annuallyuntil2025inTurkey.
ThispapertriestounfoldthelinkagebetweenenergyconsumptionandGDPbyundertakingacointegrationanalysisforTurkeywithannualdataovertheperiod1970–2003.
TheanalysisshowsthatenergyconsumptionandGDPareco-integrated.
Thismeansthatthereisa(possiblybi-directional)causalityrelationshipbetweenthetwo.
WeestablishthatthereisaunidirectionalcausalityrunningfromGDPtoenergyconsumptionindicatingthatenergysavingwouldnotharmeconomicgrowthinTurkey.
Inaddition,wefindthatenergyconsumptionkeepsongrowingaslongastheeconomygrowsinTurkey.
Thispaperappliesanewpaneldatastationaritytestingprocedure,firstdevelopedbyCarrion-i-Silvestreetal.
[2005,EconometricsJournal8,159–175],withpanelVARsthatemploythegeneralizedmethodofmomenttechniquesinordertore-investigatethedynamicinteractionsbetweenenergyconsumptionpercapita(LEC)andrealGDPpercapita(LRY)in22developedand18developingcountries.
Whenmultiplebreaksintheseriesaretakenintoaccount,thereisconvincingevidenceofpanelstationarityforLECandLRYinbothgroups.
TheenergycrisesevidentlyhadasubstantiveimpactonbothLECandLRYinallsamplecountries.
Furthermore,ourpanelVARsattesttobidirectionalcausalitybetweenLECandLRYindevelopedcountries,butthereisunidirectionalcausalityfromLRYtoLECindevelopingcountries.
Finally,fromtheorthogonalizedimpulseresponsefunctions,allofthevariablesinthepanelVARshaveapositiveeffectoneachother,buttheirimpactisgreaterandmorepersistentindevelopingcountries.
Someimportantpolicyimplicationsdoemerge.
Thispaperexaminestwoissuesthatarecentraltotheunderstandingoftheneedtoincreaseefficiencyintheuse,distribution,andproductionofenergyintheCaribbeanregion.
TheempiricalresultsofthisPapersuggestthefollowing:first,thethreeCaribbeancountriesprovideevidenceofshort-runbi-directionalGranger-causalityfromenergyconsumptiontorealgrossdomesticproductpercapita.
Second,theforecastswithABVARmodelindicatethatsignificantgrowthinenergydemandcouldbeexpectedinHaiti,Jamaica,andTrinidadandTobagountilatleast2010.
Third,theincreasedgrowthinenergyconsumptionsuggeststheneedforlong-termcommitmentsfromCaribbeancountriestoundertakeaseriesofpolicy,economic,market,andresearchanddevelopmentmeasurestoadvancetheadoptionanddeploymentofnewenergytechnologies.
Thereisarapidlygrowingliteratureontheinteractionbetweenenergyuseandeconomicdevelopment,withmanyanalystsdrawingpolicyconclusionsonthebasisofGrangercausalityteststhatinvolveonlyanenergyandaneconomicvariable.
Thispaperattemptstodemonstrateempiricallythatsuchstudies,althoughusefulforcertainapplications,maybeoflimiteduseforpolicypurposes.
Afteroutliningtheoreticalandmethodologicalissuesassociatedwithsuchapproaches,Iapplybivariateenergy–economycausalitytestsforCanada,France,Germany,Italy,Japan,theUnitedKingdomandtheUnitedStates,usingaggregateandsectoraldataandthreedifferentmoderneconometricmethods.
Theresults,whichareoftencontradictoryoreconomicallyimplausible,illustrateexplicitlythatoneshouldbecautiouswhendrawingpolicyimplicationswiththeaidofbivariatecausalitytestsonsmallsamples.
Ithereforeunderlinetheimportanceofutilizingaslargesamplesizesaspossibleandusingmultivariatemodels,whichareclosertoeconomictheory,accommodateseveralmechanismsandcausalitychannelsandprovideabetterrepresentationofreal-worldinteractionsbetweenenergyuseandeconomicgrowth.
Thisarticleprovidesfreshempiricalevidencesfortheincomeandpriceelasticiesoftheresidentialenergydemandbothintheshort-runandlong-runforTurkeyovertheperiod1968–2005,usingtheboundstestingproceduretocointegration.
Thecomputedelasticitiesofincomeandpriceareconsistentwiththepreviousstudiesand,asexpected,thelong-runelasticitiesaregreaterthantheshort-runelasticities.
AnaugmentedformofGrangercausalityanalysisisimplementedamongresidentialelectricity,income,priceandurbanization.
Inthelong-run,causalityrunsinteractivelythroughtheerror-correctiontermfromincome,priceandurbanizationtoresidentialenergybuttheshort-runcausalitytestsareinconclusiveTheparameterstabilityoftheshort-runaswellaslong-runcoefficientsintheresidentialenergydemandfunctionaretested.
Theresultsofthesetestsdisplayastablepattern.
EnergyconsumptiongrowthismuchhigherthaneconomicgrowthforTaiwaninrecentyears,worseningitsenergyefficiency.
ThispaperprovidesasolidexplanationbyexaminingtheequilibriumrelationshipbetweenGDPanddisaggregatedenergyconsumptionunderanon-linearframework.
Thethresholdco-integrationtestdevelopedwithasymmetricdynamicadjustingprocessesproposedbyHansenandSeo[Hansen,B.
E.
,Seo,B.
,2002.
Testingfortwo-regimethresholdcointegrationinvectorerror-correctionmodels.
JournalofEconometrics110,293–318.
]isapplied.
Non-linearco-integrationsbetweenGDPanddisaggregatedenergyconsumptionsareconfirmedexceptforoilconsumption.
Thetwo-regimevectorerror-correctionmodels(VECM)showthattheadjustmentprocessofenergyconsumptiontowardequilibriumishighlypersistentwhenanappropriatelythresholdisreached.
Thereismean-revertingbehaviorwhenthethresholdisreached,makingaggregateanddisaggregatedenergyconsumptionsgrowfasterthanGDPinTaiwan.
Usinganeo-classicalaggregateproductionmodelwherecapital,laborandenergyaretreatedasseparateinputs,thispapertestsfortheexistenceanddirectionofcausalitybetweenoutputgrowthandenergyuseinChinaatbothaggregatedtotalenergyanddisaggregatedlevelsascoal,oilandelectricityconsumption.
UsingtheJohansencointegrationtechnique,theempiricalfindingsindicatethatthereexistslong-runcointegrationamongoutput,labor,capitalandenergyuseinChinaatbothaggregatedandallthreedisaggregatedlevels.
ThenusingaVECspecification,theshort-rundynamicsoftheinterestedvariablesaretested,indicatingthatthereexistsGrangercausalityrunningfromelectricityandoilconsumptiontoGDP,butdoesnotexistGrangercausalityrunningfromcoalandtotalenergyconsumptiontoGDP.
Ontheotherhand,short-runGrangercausalityexistsfromGDPtototalenergy,coalandoilconsumption,butdoesnotexistfromGDPtoelectricityconsumption.
WethusproposepolicysuggestionstosolvetheenergyandsustainabledevelopmentdilemmainChinaas:enhancingenergysupplysecurityandguaranteeingenergysupply,especiallyintheshortruntoprovideadequateelectricpowersupplyandsetupnationalstrategicoilreserve;enhancingenergyefficiencytosaveenergy;diversifyingenergysources,energeticallyexploitingrenewableenergyanddrawingoutcorrespondingpoliciesandmeasures;andfinallyinthelongrun,transformingdevelopmentpatternandcutrelianceonresource-andenergy-dependentindustries.
Therelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowthisconsideredasanimperativeissueinenergyeconomics.
Previousstudieshaveignoredthenonlinearbehaviorwhichcouldbecausedbystructuralbreaks.
Inthisstudy,bothlinearandnonlinearGrangercausalitytestsareappliedtoexaminethecausalrelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowthforasampleofAsiannewlyindustrializedcountriesaswellastheU.
S.
ThisstudyfindsevidencesupportinganeutralityhypothesisfortheUnitedStates,Thailand,andSouthKorea.
However,empiricalevidenceonPhilippinesandSingaporerevealsaunidirectionalcausalityrunningfromeconomicgrowthtoenergyconsumptionwhileenergyconsumptionmayhaveaffectedeconomicgrowthforTaiwan,HongKong,MalaysiaandIndonesia.
Policyimplicationsarealsodiscussed.
Thepaperexaminesthecausalrelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowthforelevencountriesinsub-SaharanAfrica.
Usingtheautoregressivedistributedlag(ARDL)boundstest,thestudyfindsthatenergyconsumptioniscointegratedwitheconomicgrowthinCameroon,CoteD'Ivoire,Gambia,Ghana,Senegal,SudanandZimbabwe.
Moreover,thistestsuggeststhatenergyconsumptionhasasignificantpositivelongrunimpactoneconomicgrowthinGhana,Kenya,SenegalandSudan.
Grangercausalitytestbasedonvectorerrorcorrectionmodel(VECM)showsbi-directionalrelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowthforGambia,GhanaandSenegal.
However,GrangercausalitytestshowsthateconomicgrowthGrangercausesenergyconsumptioninSudanandZimbabwe.
TheneutralityhypothesisisconfirmedinrespectofCameroonandCoteD'Ivoire.
ThesameresultofnocausalitywasfoundforNigeria,KenyaandTogo.
Theresultshowsthateachcountryshouldformulateappropriateenergyconservationpoliciestakingintocognizanceofherpeculiarcondition.
Thispaperappliesarecentadvanceinpanelanalysistoestimatethepanelcointegrationandpanelvectorerrorcorrectionmodelsforasetof22OECDcountriesusingannualdatacoveringtheperiod1960–2001.
Weinvestigatetherelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandincomeusinganaggregateproductionfunctionandcontrollingforthecapitalstock,aswellasbyexploringthedynamicdirectionsofthecausalityamongthesethreevariables.
Wefirstlyobtainsolidandconvincingevidenceofafairlystronglong-runequilibriumrelationshipamongthem.
Secondly,itisfoundthatthecapitalstockismuchmoreproductivethanenergyconsumption.
Third,itisobservedthatneglectingtheimpactofthecapitalstockonincometendstooverestimatetheeffectofenergyconsumption.
Finally,thepanelcausalitytestshowsbi-directionalcausallinkagesexistamongenergyconsumption,thecapitalstockandeconomicgrowth.
Overall,thefindingsrevealthatthecapitalstockplaysacriticalroleinrealizingthedynamicrelationshipbetweenenergyandincome.
Thispaperexaminestherelationshipbetweencapitalformation,energyconsumptionandrealGDPinapanelofG7countriesusingpanelunitroot,panelcointegration,Grangercausalityandlong-runstructuralestimation.
Wefindthatcapitalformation,energyconsumptionandrealGDParecointegratedandthatcapitalformationandenergyconsumptionGrangercauserealGDPpositivelyinthelongrun.
Wefindthata1%increaseinenergyconsumptionincreasesrealGDPby0.
12–0.
39%,whilea1%increaseincapitalformationincreasesrealGDPby0.
1–0.
28%.
InthispaperweexaminethecausalrelationshipbetweenelectricityconsumptionandeconomicgrowthinSouthAfrica.
Weincorporatetheemploymentrateasanintermittentvariableinthebivariatemodelbetweenelectricityconsumptionandeconomicgrowth—therebycreatingasimpletrivariatecausalityframework.
OurempiricalresultsshowthatthereisadistinctbidirectionalcausalitybetweenelectricityconsumptionandeconomicgrowthinSouthAfrica.
Inaddition,theresultsshowthatemploymentinSouthAfricaGrangercauseseconomicgrowth.
Theresultsapplyirrespectiveofwhetherthecausalityisestimatedintheshort-runorinthelong-runformulation.
Thestudy,therefore,recommendsthatpoliciesgearedtowardstheexpansionoftheelectricityinfrastructureshouldbeintensifiedinSouthAfricainordertocopewiththeincreasingdemandexertedbythecountry'sstrongeconomicgrowthandrapidindustrialisationprogramme.
Thiswillcertainlyenablethecountrytoavoidunprecedentedpoweroutagessimilartothoseexperiencedinthecountryinmid-January2008.
Theaimofthispaperistore-examinethecausalrelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowthforseventeenAfricancountriesinamultivariateframeworkbyincludinglaborandcapitalasadditionalvariables.
WeapplythevariancedecompositionanalysisduetoPesaranandShin[PesaranM.
H.
andShin,Y.
Generalisedimpulseresponseanalysisinlinearmultivariatemodels,EconomicsLetters,1998;58;17–29.
]toevaluatehowimportantisthecausalimpactofenergyconsumptiononeconomicgrowthrelativetolaborandcapital.
TheresultsofourmultivariatemodifiedGrangercausalityanalysisduetoTodaandYamamoto[Toda,H.
Y.
andYamamoto,T.
Statisticalinferenceinvectorautoregressionswithpossiblyintegratedprocess,JournalofEconometrics,1995;66;225–250.
]tendtorejecttheneutralityhypothesisfortheenergy–incomerelationshipinfifteenoutoftheseventeencountries.
Incontrast,resultsofourvariancedecompositionanalysesshowthatinelevenoutoftheseventeencountries,energyisnomorethanacontributingfactortooutputgrowthandnotanimportantonewhencomparedtocapitalandlabor.
Laborandcapitalarethemostimportantfactorsinoutputgrowthinfifteenoutoftheseventeencountries.
However,theseresultsshouldbeinterpretedwithcareastheymaynotbesufficientlyrobustenoughtosupporttheinferencethatenergyconsumptionplaysaminorroleintheeconomicgrowthofAfricancountries.
ThisstudyexaminestherelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowthforsixCentralAmericancountriesovertheperiod1980–2004withinamultivariateframework.
Giventherelativelyshortspanofthetimeseriesdata,apanelcointegrationanderrorcorrectionmodelisemployedtoinferthecausalrelationship.
BasedontheheterogeneouspanelcointegrationtestbyPedroni(Pedroni,P.
,1999.
Criticalvaluesforcointegrationtestsinheterogeneouspanelswithmultipleregressors.
OxfordBulletinofEconomicsandStatistics61,653–670;Pedroni,P.
,2004.
Panelcointegration:asymptoticandfinitesamplepropertiesofpooledtimeseriestestswithanapplicationtothePPPhypothesis:newresults.
EconometricTheory20,597–627),cointegrationispresentbetweenrealGDP,energyconsumption,thelaborforce,andrealgrossfixedcapitalformationwiththerespectivecoefficientspositiveandstatisticallysignificant.
TheGrangercausalityresultsindicatethepresenceofbothshort-runandlong-runcausalityfromenergyconsumptiontoeconomicgrowthwhichsupportsthegrowthhypothesis.
ThisstudyexaminestherelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowthforelevencountriesoftheCommonwealthofIndependentStatesovertheperiod1991–2005withinamultivariatepaneldataframework.
BasedonPedroni's(1999,2004)heterogeneouspanelcointegrationtestandcorrespondingerrorcorrectionmodel,cointegrationispresentbetweenrealGDP,energyconsumption,realgrossfixedcapitalformation,andlaborforcewiththerespectivecoefficientspositiveandstatisticallysignificant.
Theresultsoftheerrorcorrectionmodelrevealthepresenceofunidirectionalcausalityfromenergyconsumptiontoeconomicgrowthintheshort-runwhilebidirectionalcausalitybetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowthinthelong-run.
Thus,theresultslendsupportforthefeedbackhypothesisassociatedwiththerelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowth.
Theincreasingattentiongiventoglobalenergyissuesandtheinternationalpoliciesneededtoreducegreenhousegasemissionshavegivenarenewedstimulustoresearchinterestinthelinkagesbetweentheenergysectorandeconomicperformanceatcountrylevel.
Inthispaper,weanalysethecausalrelationshipbetweeneconomyandenergybyadoptingaVectorErrorCorrectionModelfornon-stationaryandcointegratedpaneldatawithalargesampleofdevelopedanddevelopingcountriesandfourdistinctenergysectors.
Theresultsshowthatalternativecountrysampleshardlyaffectthecausalityrelations,particularlyinamultivariatemulti-sectorframework.
ThisstudyexaminestherelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowthforapanelofnineSouthAmericancountriesovertheperiod1980–2005withinamultivariateframework.
Giventherelativelyshortspanofthetimeseriesdata,apanelcointegrationanderrorcorrectionmodelisemployedtoinferthecausalrelationship.
Pedroni'sheterogeneouspanelcointegrationtestrevealsalong-runequilibriumrelationshipbetweenrealGDP,energyconsumption,thelaborforce,andrealgrossfixedcapitalformationwiththerespectivecoefficientspositiveandstatisticallysignificant.
TheGranger-causalityresultsindicatebothshort-runandlong-runcausalityfromenergyconsumptiontoeconomicgrowthwhichsupportsthegrowthhypothesis.
ThisstudyteststherelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowthinSub-SaharanAfrica,usingapanelco-integrationapproach.
Country-leveltimeseriesdataofenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowtharepooledandusedtoestimatethemodel.
Sub-SaharanAfricancountriesinthesampleareclassifiedintolowincomeandmiddleincomecountries.
Thefindingssupporttheneutralityhypothesisintheshortrun,exceptformiddleincomecountries,andastrongcausationrunninginbothdirectionsisfoundinthelong-run.
Thedifferentresultsforlowandmiddleincomecountriesprovideevidenceoftheimportanceofincomelevelinthecausalrelationship.
ThisstudyhelpstoexplaintheinterdependenceofenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowthinSub-SaharanAfrica.
Resultsarecriticalinformulatingsustainabledevelopmentpoliciesthataregearedtotheefficientallocationofresourceswhichareexpectedtoincreaseaccesstoenergyservicesinthestudyregion.
Thedebateaboutthepreciseroleofenergyineconomicdevelopmentremainscontentious.
Existingempiricalstudieshaveproducedvaryingresults:somehavearguedthecomplementaritybetweenenergyandotherfactorsofproduction,andothershaveindicatedthatenergycanbesubstitutedforotherfactorsofproduction.
Commonly,thesestudieshavefocusedprimarilyonthedevelopedcountries,oneexplanationbeingthatsupplyconstraintsandpricerigiditiesrenderanystudyonfactorsubstitutionsindevelopingcountriesmeaningless.
However,thefunctionalrelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandincomeindevelopingcountriesisconstantlyinvestigatedwiththeuseofregressiontechniques.
Whilesuchtechniquesareusefulinempiricalanalysis,nomechanismexistsforindicatingcausaldirectionsbetweenvariables.
Thislimitsthescopeforpolicyanalysisandprescription.
Theneedtoidentifycausaldirectionbetweenenergyconsumptionandincomegrowthindevelopingcountriesisoverwhelming.
Apartfromprovidingfurtherinsightsintotheroleofenergyineconomicdevelopment,itprovidespolicyanalystswithaclearerunderstandingofthelikelyimpactofenergysupplyconstraintsoneconomicgrowth.
Thisarticleexaminesthecausaldirectionsbetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowth(proxiedbyGDPandGNP)forNigeriaandTanzania.
Theresultsshowasimultaneouscausalrelationshipbetweenenergyandeconomicgrowthforbothcountries,theimplicationbeingthat,unlessenergysupplyconstraintsareeased,economicgrowthanddevelopmentwillremainelusivetothesecountries.
Givensimilareconomiccharacteristicsandprofilingthesameenergyscenarioforotherdevelopingcountries,ourfindingsupportstheviewthatenergyplaysakeyroleineconomicdevelopment.
Astudyoftherelationshipbetweenelectricityuseandeconomicdevelopmentinoveronehundredcountries,constitutingover99%oftheglobaleconomyhasbeenundertaken.
Correlationsbetweenelectricityconsumption/capitaandGDP/capitahavebeenanalysedandcomparedwiththosebetweentotalprimaryenergysupply/capitaandGDP/capita.
Asupportinganalysishascorrelatedtheproportionofenergyusedintheformelectricity,the&e/Eratio',withGDP/capita.
Thegeneralconclusionsofthisresearcharethatwealthycountrieshaveastrongercorrelationbetweenelectricityuseandwealthcreationthandopoorcountriesandthat,fortheglobaleconomyasawhole,thereisastrongercorrelationbetweenelectricityuseandwealthcreationthanthereisbetweentotalenergyuseandwealth.
Thestudyalsoshowsthat,inwealthycountries,theincreaseinwealthovertimecorrelateswithanincreaseinthee/Eratio.
Theresultsimplythattheenergyratio($/toe)shouldbereplacedbytheelectricityratio($/kWh)asadevelopmentindicatorand,moreprecisely,bythee/Eratio(kWh/toe).
ThispapertriestoexaminetheGrangercausalitybetweenelectricityconsumptionpercapitaandGrossDomesticProduct(GDP)percapitaforIndiausingannualdatacoveringtheperiod1950–51to1996–97.
Phillips–Perrontestsrevealthatboththeseries,afterlogarithmictransformation,arenon-stationaryandindividuallyintegratedoforderone.
Thisstudyfindstheabsenceoflong-runequilibriumrelationshipamongthevariablesbutthereexistsunidirectionalGrangercausalityrunningfromeconomicgrowthtoelectricityconsumptionwithoutanyfeedbackeffect.
So,electricityconservationpoliciescanbeinitiatedwithoutdeterioratingeconomicsideeffects.
Thispaperappliestheerror-correctionmodeltoexaminethecausalrelationshipbetweenelectricityconsumptionandrealGDPforChinaduring1971–2000.
OurestimationresultsindicatethatrealGDPandelectricityconsumptionforChinaarecointegratedandthereisunidirectionalGrangercausalityrunningfromelectricityconsumptiontorealGDPbutnotviceversa.
Inordertoovercometheconstraintsonelectricityconsumption,theChinesegovernmenthastospeedupthenation-wideinterconnectionofpowernetworks,toupgradeurbanandruraldistributiongrids,andtoaccelerateruralelectrification.
Thispaperexaminestherelationshipbetweenelectricityconsumption,employmentandrealincomeinAustraliawithinacointegrationandcausalityframework.
Wefindthatelectricityconsumption,employmentandrealincomearecointegratedandthatinthelong-runemploymentandrealincomeGrangercauseelectricityconsumption,whileintheshortrunthereisweakunidirectionalGrangercausalityrunningfromincometoelectricityconsumptionandfromincometoemployment.
Thispaperinvestigatestheshort-andlong-runcausalityissuesbetweenelectricityconsumptionandeconomicgrowthinKoreabyusingtheco-integrationanderror-correctionmodels.
Itemploysannualdatacoveringtheperiod1970–2002.
Theoverallresultsshowthatthereexistsbi-directionalcausalitybetweenelectricityconsumptionandeconomicgrowth.
Thismeansthatanincreaseinelectricityconsumptiondirectlyaffectseconomicgrowthandthateconomicgrowthalsostimulatesfurtherelectricityconsumption.
ThispaperinvestigatesthecausalrelationshipbetweenelectricityconsumptionandeconomicgrowthamongtheAssociationofSouthEastAsianNations(ASEAN)4members,namelyIndonesia,Malaysia,Singapore,andThailand,usingmoderntime-seriestechniquesfortheperiod1971–2002.
Theresultsindicatethatthereisabi-directionalcausalitybetweenelectricityconsumptionandeconomicgrowthinMalaysiaandSingapore.
Thismeansthatanincreaseinelectricityconsumptiondirectlyaffectseconomicgrowthandthateconomicgrowthalsostimulatesfurtherelectricityconsumptioninthetwocountries.
However,uni-directionalcausalityrunsfromeconomicgrowthtoelectricityconsumptioninIndonesiaandThailandwithoutanyfeedbackeffect.
Thus,electricityconservationpoliciescanbeinitiatedwithoutdeterioratingeconomicsideeffectsinthetwocountries.
Thispaperexploreswhetherenergyconservationpoliciescanbeimplementedincountrieswiththesamelevelofdevelopment.
Thatis,isrestrainingenergyconsumptionwithoutcompromisingeconomicgrowthfeasibleinallindustrializedcountriesAnewGrangernon-causalitytestingproceduredevelopedbyTodaandYamamoto[1995,JournalofEconometrics66,225–250]isappliedtore-investigatetherelationship,ifany,betweenenergyconsumptionandincomein11majorindustrializedcountries.
Theresultsclearlydonotsupporttheviewthatenergyconsumptionandincomeareneutralwithrespecttoeachother,exceptinthecaseoftheUnitedKingdom,GermanyandSwedenwhereaneutralrelationshipisfound.
Bi-directionalcausalityintheUnitedStatesandunidirectionalrunningfromenergyconsumptiontoGDPinCanada,Belgium,theNetherlandsandSwitzerlandarefound.
Thisindicatesthatenergyconservationmayhindereconomicgrowthinthelatterfivecountries.
Further,thecausalityrelationshipappearstobeuni-directionalbutreversedforFrance,ItalyandJapanwhichimpliesthat,inthesethreecountries,energyconservationmaybeviablewithoutbeingdetrimentaltoeconomicgrowth.
Thisworkinvestigatesthecausalityrelationshipbetweengrossdomesticproduct(GDP)andenergyconsumptioninthesixcountriesoftheGulfCooperationCouncil(GCC).
Recentlydevelopedpanelcointegrationandcausalitytechniquesareusedtouncoverthedirectionofenergy–GDPcausalityintheGCC.
EmpiricalresultsindicateaunidirectionalcausalityrunningfromGDPtoenergyconsumption.
EvidenceshowsnosupportforthehypothesisthatenergyconsumptionisthesourceofGDPgrowthintheGCCcountries.
SuchresultssuggestthatenergyconservationpoliciesmaybeadoptedwithoutmuchconcernabouttheiradverseeffectsonthegrowthofGCCeconomies.
Thispaperexaminesthedynamiccausalrelationshipsbetweenpollutantemissions,energyconsumption,andoutputforFranceusingcointegrationandvectorerror-correctionmodellingtechniques.
Wearguethatthesevariablesarestronglyinter-relatedandthereforetheirrelationshipmustbeexaminedusinganintegratedframework.
Theresultsprovideevidencefortheexistenceofafairlyrobustlongrunrelationshipbetweenthesevariablesfortheperiod1960–2000.
Thecausalityresultssupporttheargumentthateconomicgrowthexertsacausalinfluenceongrowthofenergyuseandgrowthofpollutioninthelongrun.
Theresultsalsopointtoauni-directionalcausalityrunningfromgrowthofenergyusetooutputgrowthintheshortrun.
Inthispaper,weexaminethecausalrelationshipbetweenthepercapitaelectricityconsumptionandthepercapitaGDPforBangladeshusingcointegrationandvectorerrorcorrectionmodel.
OurresultsshowthatthereisunidirectionalcausalityfrompercapitaGDPtopercapitaelectricityconsumption.
However,thepercapitaelectricityconsumptiondoesnotcausepercapitaGDPincaseofBangladesh.
Thefindinghassignificantimplicationsfromthepointofviewofenergyconservation,emissionreductionandeconomicdevelopment.
Thisarticleappliesrecentlydevelopedpanelunitrootandpanelcointegrationtechniquestoestimatethelong-runandshort-runincomeandpriceelasticitiesforresidentialdemandforelectricityinG7countries.
Thepanelresultsindicatethatinthelong-runresidentialdemandforelectricityispriceelasticandincomeinelastic.
ThestudyconcludesthatfromanenvironmentalperspectivethereispotentialtousepricingpoliciesintheG7countriestocurtailresidentialelectricitydemand,andthuscurbcarbonemissions,inthelongrun.
ThispaperexaminesthecausalrelationshipbetweenthepercapitaenergyconsumptionandthepercapitaGDPinapanelof11selectedoilexportingcountriesbyusingpanelunit-roottestsandpanelcointegrationanalysis.
Theresultsshowaunidirectionalstrongcausalityfromeconomicgrowthtoenergyconsumptionfortheoilexportingcountries.
Thefindingshavepracticalpolicyimplicationsfordecisionmakersintheareaofmacroeconomicplanning.
Inmostmajoroilexportingcountries,governmentpolicieskeepdomesticpricesbellowfreemarketlevel,resultinginhighlevelsofdomesticenergyconsumption.
Theresultsimplythattheenergyconservationthroughreformingenergypricepolicieshasnodamagingrepercussionsoneconomicgrowthforthisgroupofcountries.
Thispaperreinvestigatestheenergyconsumption–GDPgrowthnexusinapanelerrorcorrectionmodelusingdataon20netenergyimportersandexportersfrom1971to2002.
Amongtheenergyexporters,therewasbidirectionalcausalitybetweeneconomicgrowthandenergyconsumptioninthedevelopedcountriesinboththeshortandlongrun,whileinthedevelopingcountriesenergyconsumptionstimulatesgrowthonlyintheshortrun.
Theformerresultisalsofoundforenergyimportersandthelatterresultexistsonlyforthedevelopedcountrieswithinthiscategory.
Inaddition,comparedtothedevelopingcountries,thedevelopedcountries'elasticityresponseintermsofeconomicgrowthfromanincreaseinenergyconsumptionislargeralthoughitsincomeelasticityislowerandlessthanunitary.
Lastly,theimplicationsforenergypolicycallingforamoreholisticapproacharediscussed.
Thispaperreexaminestheinter-temporallinkbetweenenergyconsumptionandincomeinsixdevelopingcountrieswithdiverseeconomicbackgroundsandenergystatistics,inaproductionfunctionframework.
Weemploythegeneralizedvariancedecompositionsandgeneralizedimpulseresponsetechniquestoseeifthegrowthofincomeandenergyconsumptioncontainsconsiderableinformationtopredicteachother.
Inallcountries,energyappearsasanessentialfactorofproduction.
Resultsindicatethatenergymaybearelativelymoreimportantinputthanlaborand/orcapitalinsomecountries.
Hence,neutralityofenergydoesnotseemtohold.
ThispaperprovidesadetailedanalysisoftheenergyconsumptioninTurkeyduringthelast40years.
Itinvestigatesthecausalrelationshipsbetweenincomeandenergyconsumptionintwoways:first,therelationshipisstudiedattheaggregatelevel;then,wefocusontheindustrialsector.
Previousfindingssuggestthat,inthecaseofTurkey,thereisaunidirectionalcausalityrunningfromenergyconsumptiontogrowth.
However,ourfindingssuggestthatinthelongrun,incomeandenergyconsumptionappeartobeneutralwithrespecttoeachotherbothattheaggregateandattheindustriallevel.
Wealsofindastrongevidenceofinstantaneouscausality,whichmeansthatcontemporaneousvaluesofenergyconsumptionandincomearecorrelated.
Furthermore,adescriptiveanalysisisconductedinordertorevealthedifferencesintheuseofenergyresources.
Weconcludethatenergyconservationpoliciesarenecessaryforenvironmentalconcernsandourempiricalresultsimplythatsuchpolicieswouldnotimpedeeconomicgrowthinthelongterm.
ThegoalofthispaperistoexamineanycausaleffectsbetweenelectricityconsumptionandrealGDPfor30OECDcountries.
WeuseabootstrappedcausalitytestingapproachandunravelevidenceinfavourofelectricityconsumptioncausingrealGDPinAustralia,Iceland,Italy,theSlovakRepublic,theCzechRepublic,Korea,Portugal,andtheUK.
TheimplicationisthatelectricityconservationpolicieswillnegativelyimpactrealGDPinthesecountries.
However,fortherestofthe22countriesourfindingssuggestthatelectricityconversationpolicieswillnotaffectrealGDP.
Thepurposeofthisstudyistore-investigatetherelationshipbetweenelectricityconsumptionandeconomicgrowthinMalaysiafrom1972:1to2003:4.
ThisstudyadoptedthenewlydevelopedECMbasedF-test[Kanioura,A.
,Turner,P.
,2005.
CriticalvaluesforanF-testforcointegrationinthemultivariatemodel.
AppliedEconomics37(3),265–270]forcointegrationtoexaminethepresenceoflongrunequilibriumrelationshipthroughtheautoregressivedistributedlag(ARDL)model.
TheempiricalevidencesuggeststhatelectricityconsumptionandeconomicgrowtharenotcointegratedinMalaysia.
However,thestandardGranger'stestandMWALDtestsuggestthatelectricityconsumptionandeconomicgrowthinMalaysiaGrangercauseseachother.
Thisfindingprovidespolicymakerswithabetterunderstandingofelectricityconsumptionandallowsthemtoformulateelectricityconsumptionpolicytosupporttheeconomicdevelopmentandtoenhancetheproductivityofcapital,labourandotherfactorsofproductionforfutureeconomicgrowthinMalaysia.
Weanalyzethelong-runrelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandrealgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)inTurkeytakingintoaccountthesizeofunrecordedeconomy.
Sinceindevelopingcountries,mainlyduetotheunrecordedeconomicactivities,theofficialGDPisnotmeasuredcorrectly,theinvestigationofthelinkagebetweenenergyconsumptionandofficialGDPmaynotgivereliableresults.
Inthisstudy,empiricalresultsforthecaseofTurkeyovertheperiod1970–2005suggestthatthereisalong-runequilibriumrelationshipbetweentheofficiallycalculatedGDPandenergyconsumption.
Besides,usingtheerror-correctionmodelingtechnique,wefindoutthatunidirectionalcausalityrunsfromofficialGDPtoenergyinbothshortandlongruns.
However,whenwetakeintoaccountunrecordedeconomy,wedetectneithercointegrationnorcausalitybetweenenergyconsumptionandtrueGDP.
Theseempiricalfindingsimplythat:first,energyconservationpoliciescanbeimplementedinordertoreducegreenhousegasemissionswithoutanyadverseeffectontherecordedeconomicactivities;secondtheproductionfunctionintheunrecordedeconomyisnotstable.
Furthermore,economicpoliciestocombatunrecordedeconomymaynotserveasacomplementtoenergyconservationpolicies.
Thispaperappliesthecausalitytesttoexaminethecausalrelationshipbetweenprimaryenergyconsumption(EC)andrealGrossNationalProduct(GNP)forTurkeyduring1970–2006.
Weemployunitroottests,theaugmentedDickey–Fuller(ADF)andthePhilips–Perron(PP),Johansencointegrationtest,andPair-wiseGrangercausalitytesttoexaminerelationbetweenECandGNP.
Ourempiricalresultsindicatethatthetwoseriesarefoundtobenon-stationary.
However,firstdifferencesoftheseseriesleadtostationarity.
Further,theresultsindicatethatECandGNParecointegratedandthereisbidirectionalcausalityrunningfromECtoGNPandviceversa.
ThismeansthatanincreaseinECdirectlyaffectseconomicgrowthandthateconomicgrowthalsostimulatesfurtherEC.
ThisbidirectionalcausalityrelationshipbetweenECandGNPdeterminedforTurkeyat1970–2006periodisinaccordancewiththeonesinliteraturereportedforsimilarcountries.
Consequently,weconcludethatenergyisalimitingfactortoeconomicgrowthinTurkeyand,hence,shockstoenergysupplywillhaveanegativeimpactoneconomicgrowth.
Thisstudyattemptstoempiricallyexaminethedynamiccausalrelationshipsbetweencarbonemissions,energyconsumption,income,andforeigntradeinthecaseofTurkeyusingthetime-seriesdatafortheperiod1960–2005.
Thisresearchteststheinterrelationshipbetweenthevariablesusingtheboundstestingtocointegrationprocedure.
Theboundstestresultsindicatethatthereexisttwoformsoflong-runrelationshipsbetweenthevariables.
Inthecaseoffirstformoflong-runrelationship,carbonemissionsaredeterminedbyenergyconsumption,incomeandforeigntrade.
Inthecaseofsecondlong-runrelationship,incomeisdeterminedbycarbonemissions,energyconsumptionandforeigntrade.
AnaugmentedformofGrangercausalityanalysisisconductedamongstthevariables.
Thelong-runrelationshipofCO2emissions,energyconsumption,incomeandforeigntradeequationisalsocheckedfortheparameterstability.
TheempiricalresultssuggestthatincomeisthemostsignificantvariableinexplainingthecarbonemissionsinTurkeywhichisfollowedbyenergyconsumptionandforeigntrade.
Moreover,thereexistsastablecarbonemissionsfunction.
Theresultsalsoprovideimportantpolicyrecommendations.
ThisstudyextendstherecentworkofAng(2007)[Ang,J.
B.
,2007.
CO2emissions,energyconsumption,andoutputinFrance.
EnergyPolicy35,4772–4778]inexaminingthecausalrelationshipbetweencarbon-dioxideemissions,energyconsumption,andoutputwithinapanelvectorerrorcorrectionmodelforsixCentralAmericancountriesovertheperiod1971–2004.
Inlong-runequilibriumenergyconsumptionhasapositiveandstatisticallysignificantimpactonemissionswhilerealoutputexhibitstheinvertedU-shapepatternassociatedwiththeEnvironmentalKuznetsCurve(EKC)hypothesis.
Theshort-rundynamicsindicateunidirectionalcausalityfromenergyconsumptionandrealoutput,respectively,toemissionsalongwithbidirectionalcausalitybetweenenergyconsumptionandrealoutput.
Inthelong-runthereappearstobebidirectionalcausalitybetweenenergyconsumptionandemissions.
Thispaperexaminesthecausalrelationshipbetweenelectricityconsumption,exportsandgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)forapanelofMiddleEasterncountries.
Wefindthatforthepanelasawholetherearestatisticallysignificantfeedbackeffectsbetweenthesevariables.
A1percentincreaseinelectricityconsumptionincreasesGDPby0.
04percent,a1percentincreaseinexportsincreasesGDPby0.
17percentanda1percentincreaseinGDPgeneratesa0.
95percentincreaseinelectricityconsumption.
Thepolicyimplicationsarethatforthepanelasawholethesecountriesshouldinvestinelectricityinfrastructureandstepupelectricityconservationpoliciestoavoidareductioninelectricityconsumptionadverselyaffectingeconomicgrowth.
Furtherpolicyimplicationsarethatforthepanelasawholepromotingexports,particularlynon-oilexports,isameanstopromoteeconomicgrowthandthatexpansionofexportscanberealizedwithouthavingadverseeffectsonenergyconservationpolicies.
Thisstudyprobesnexusbetweenelectricitysupply,employmentandrealGDPforIndiawithinamultivariateframeworkusingautoregressivedistributedlag(ARDL)boundstestingapproachofcointegration.
Long-runequilibriumrelationshiphasbeenestablishedamongthesevariablesforthetimespan1970–71to2005–06.
Thestudyfurtherestablisheslong-andshort-runGrangercausalityrunningfromrealGDPandelectricitysupplytoemploymentwithoutanyfeedbackeffect.
Thus,growthinrealGDPandelectricitysupplyareresponsibleforthehighlevelofemploymentinIndia.
TheabsenceofcausalityrunningfromelectricitysupplytorealGDPimpliesthatelectricitydemandandsupplysidemeasurescanbeadoptedtoreducethewastageofelectricity,whichwouldnotaffectfutureeconomicgrowthofIndia.
Inthispaper,theJohansencointegrationtechniqueisusedtoexaminethecausalrelationshipbetweenpercapitaenergyconsumption(PCEC)andpercapitagrossdomesticproduct(PCGDP)forTunisiaduringthe1971–2004period.
InordertotestforGrangercausalityinthepresenceofcointegrationamongthevariables,avectorerrorcorrectionmodel(VECM)isusedinsteadofavectorautoregressive(VAR)model.
OurstimationresultsindicatethatthePCGDPandPCECforTunisiaarerelatedbyonecointegratingvectorandthatthereisalong-runbi-directionalcausalrelationshipbetweenthetwoseriesandashort-rununidirectionalcausalityfromenergytogrossdomesticproduct(GDP).
Thesourceofcausationinthelong-runisfoundtobetheerror-correctiontermsinbothdirections.
Hence,animportantpolicyimplicationresultingfromthisanalysisisthatenergycanbeconsideredasalimitingfactortoGDPgrowthinTunisia.
ConclusionsforTunisiamayalsoberelevantforanumberofcountriesthathavetogothroughasimilardevelopmentpathofincreasingpressureonalreadyscarceenergyresources.
Inthispaper,weexaminetheintertemporalcausalrelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowthinTanzaniaduringtheperiodof1971–2006.
Unlikethemajorityofthepreviousstudies,weemploythenewlydevelopedautoregressivedistributedlag(ARDL)-boundstestingapproachbyPesaranetal.
[2001.
Boundstestingapproachestotheanalysisoflevelrelationships.
JournalofAppliedEconometrics16,289–326]toexaminethislinkage.
Wealsousetwoproxiesofenergyconsumption,namelytotalenergyconsumptionpercapitaandelectricityconsumptionpercapita.
Theresultsoftheboundstestshowthatthereisastablelong-runrelationshipbetweeneachoftheproxiesofenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowth.
Theresultsofthecausalitytest,ontheotherhand,showthatthereisaunidirectionalcausalflowfromtotalenergyconsumptiontoeconomicgrowthandaprima-faciecausalflowfromelectricityconsumptiontoeconomicgrowth.
Overall,thestudyfindsthatenergyconsumptionspurseconomicgrowthinTanzania.
Duringthelastthreedecades,followingcloselythedevelopmentsineconometrictheory,energyandenvironmentaleconomistshaveempiricallyexaminedtheenergy-incomenexusfordifferentcountriesandtimeperiods.
However,today,inspiteofthegrowinginterestinthisarea,thestateofknowledgeisstillcontroversialandunsettled.
Thisviewpointpaperattemptstohighlightsomeoftheissuesrelatedtotheexistingliteratureonthelong-runrelationshipandcausalitybetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowth.
Inparticular,itdiscusseshowitisdifficulttomakepolicyrecommendationsonthebasisofinconsistentandconflictingresultsinthepublishedliteratureonthesubject.
Inordertodoso,thepaperfirstillustratestheincreasingtrendinthenumberofstudiespublishedinthisareaprovidingalsoabriefcomparisonoftheconventionalmethodsusedtoestimatetheenergy-incomenexus.
Itthendealswithnewdirectionsanddifferentviewpointsonthesameissue.
Thisstudyappliesthepanelstationaritytestdevelopedby[Carrion-i-Silvestreetal2005.
Breakingthepanels:AnapplicationtoGDPpercapita.
EconometricsJournal8,159–175]toexaminethestationarityofenergyconsumptionpercapitaforapanelof13PacificIslandcountriesovertheperiod1980–2005.
Thistesthastheadvantagethatitallowsformultiplestructuralbreaksatunknowndatesthatcandifferacrosscountriesandcanaccountforallformsofcross-sectionalcorrelationbetweencountries.
Theconclusionfromthestudyisthatenergyconsumptionpercapitainapproximately60%ofcountriesisstationaryandthatenergyconsumptionpercapitaforthepanelasawholeisstationary.
Thestudyoffersseveralsuggestionsformodellingenergyconsumptionandpolicy-makinginthePacificIslands.
Electricityhasbeenthefoundationofeconomicgrowth,andconstitutesoneofthevitalinfra-structuralinputsinsocio-economicdevelopment.
Theworldfacesasurgeindemandforelectricitythatisdrivenbysuchpowerfulforcesaspopulationgrowth,extensiveurbanization,industrialization,andtheriseinthestandardofliving.
Thispaperattemptstoascertainwhetherthereisasystematicrelationshipbetweenelectricityconsumptionandeconomicgrowth.
Tothisend,weusealargesetofdatathatspans88countriesduringtheperiod,1975–2004.
Astatisticallysignificantinverted-U-shapedrelationshipbetweenper-capitaconsumptionofelectricityandper-capitaincomeisdetected.
Nevertheless,byusingapurchasingpowerparitythatismuchhigherthantheper-capitaincomeofallthecountriesintheworld,thelevelofper-capitaincomeisestimatedatthepeakpointofper-capitaelectricityconsumptiontobe$61,379in2000constantinternationaldollars.
Moreover,wesegmentthesampleintoOrganizationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment(OECD)countriesandnon-OECDcountries,andseparatelyanalyzethedevelopedanddevelopingcountries.
Theseparateestimationshowsthateventhoughthepeakincomeishigherthantheaverageper-capitaincome,astatisticallysignificantinverted-U-shapedrelationshipisfoundinOECDanddevelopedcountriesbutnotinnon-OECDanddevelopingcountries.
ThisstudyexaminestherelationshipbetweenrenewableenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowthforapaneloftwentyOECDcountriesovertheperiod1985–2005withinamultivariateframework.
Giventherelativelyshortspanofthetime-seriesdata,apanelcointegrationanderrorcorrectionmodelisemployedtoinferthecausalrelationship.
Theheterogeneouspanelcointegrationtestrevealsalong-runequilibriumrelationshipbetweenrealGDP,renewableenergyconsumption,realgrossfixedcapitalformation,andthelaborforcewiththerespectivecoefficientspositiveandstatisticallysignificant.
TheGranger-causalityresultsindicatebidirectionalcausalitybetweenrenewableenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowthinboththeshort-andlong-run.
ThispaperinvestigatesthedynamiccausalrelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowthinLebanonovertheperiod1980–2009.
Withinabivariateframework,imposedonusduetodatalimitations,andinanefforttoincreasetherobustnessofourresults,weemployavarietyofcausalitytests,namely,Hsiao,Toda-Yamamoto,andvectorerrorcorrectionbasedGrangercausalitytests.
Wefindstrongevidenceofabidirectionalrelationshipbothintheshort-runandinthelong-run,indicatingthatenergyisalimitingfactortoeconomicgrowthinLebanon.
Fromapolicyperspective,theconfirmationofthefeedbackhypothesiswarnsagainsttheuseofpolicyinstrumentsgearedtowardsrestrictingenergyconsumption,asthesemayleadtoadverseeffectsoneconomicgrowth.
Consequently,thereisapressingneedtorevisethecurrentnationalenergypolicythatcallsfora5%energyconservationtarget.
Also,toshieldthecountryfromexternalsupplyshocks,givenitssubstantialdependenceonenergyimports,policymakersshouldemphasizethedevelopmentofdomesticenergyresources.
Further,themostpertinentimplicationisthatrelaxingthepresentelectriccapacityshortagesshouldbemadeanationalpriority,inviewofitspotentialpositiveeffectontheeconomy.
TheaimofthispaperistostudythenatureoftherelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowthinCameroonthroughathree-stepapproach:(i)Studythestationarityofthechronic,(ii)testofcausalitybetweenvariablesand(iii)estimatetheappropriatemodel.
Thestudyconcludesinanon-stationarityoftheseries.
Usingthedatainfirstdifference,theGrangercausalitytestyieldsastrongevidenceforunidirectionalcausalityrunningfromOILtoGDP.
Cointegrationtestsalsoshowthatthesetwoseriesareco-integratedandtheErrorCorrectionModel(ECM)revealsthateverypercentageincreaseinOilproductsconsumptionincreaseseconomicgrowthbyaround1.
1%.
Thisresultconfirmstheintuitionthataneconomicpolicyaimedatimprovingenergysupplywillnecessarilyhaveapositiveimpactoneconomicgrowth.
Ontheotherside,alackofenergyisamajorbottleneckforfurthereconomicdevelopmentinCameroon.
InthispaperweempiricallyinvestigatethecausallinkbetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowthemployingaMarkovswitchingGrangercausalityanalysis.
WecarryoutourinvestigationusingannualU.
S.
realGDP,totalfinalenergyconsumptionandtotalprimaryenergyconsumptiondatawhichcovertheperiodbetween1968and2010.
Wefindthattherearesignificantchangesinthecausalrelationbetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowthoverthesampleperiodunderinvestigation.
OurresultsshowthattotalfinalenergyconsumptionandtotalprimaryenergyconsumptionhavesignificantpredictivecontentforrealeconomicactivityintheU.
S.
economy.
Furthermore,thecausalityrunningfromenergyconsumptiontooutputgrowthseemstobestronglyapparentparticularlyduringtheperiodsofeconomicdownturnandenergycrisis.
Wealsodocumentthatoutputgrowthhaspredictivepowerinexplainingtotalenergyconsumption.
Furthermore,thepowerofoutputgrowthinpredictingtotalenergyconsumptionisfoundtodiminishafterthemidof1980s.
Thispaperexaminestheinterrelationshipsbetweenenergyconsumption,foreigndirectinvestmentandeconomicgrowthusingdynamicpaneldatamodelsinsimultaneous-equationsforaglobalpanelconsistingof65countries.
Thetimecomponentofourdatasetis1990–2011inclusive.
Tomakethepaneldataanalysismorehomogenous,wealsoinvestigatethisinterrelationshipforanumberofsub-panelswhichareconstructedbasedontheincomelevelofcountries.
Inthisway,weendupwiththreeincomepanels;namely,highincome,middleincome,andlowincomepanels.
Intheempiricalpart,wedrawonthegrowththeoryandaugmenttheclassicalgrowthmodel,whichconsistsofcapitalstock,laborforceandinflation,withforeigndirectinvestmentandenergy.
Generally,weshowmixedresultsabouttheinterrelationshipbetweenenergyconsumption,FDIandeconomicgrowth.
PublicdebatesonelectricitypolicyinHongKongfocusontheregulationregimebutseldomdiscussthemacroeconomicimpact.
Inthispaper,weusethenoveldatasetonelectricityconsumptionandreportthefollowingfindings:(1)thereisalongrunequilibriumrelationshipbetweenrealGDPandelectricityconsumption;(2)aone-waycausaleffectexistsfromelectricityconsumptiontorealGDP;(3)asignificantadjustmentprocessoccurswhenequilibriumisinterrupted;(4)thereexistspossiblestructuralchangeintherelationshipbetweenelectricityconsumptionandeconomicactivitiesin1990s.
Tocopewiththeincreasingelectricitydemandandtoovercomethesupplyshortageofelectricity,itisimminentthatinvestmentsbemadeontheelectricitygenerationsectoronalargescaleinIndonesia.
ThispaperattemptstoinvestigatethecausalrelationshipbetweenelectricitygenerationandeconomicgrowthinIndonesia,usingtime-seriestechniquesfortheperiodof1971–2002.
Theresultsindicatethatthereisauni-directionalcausalityrunningfromeconomicgrowthtoelectricitygenerationwithoutanyfeedbackeffect.
Thus,economicgrowthstimulatesfurtherelectricitygeneration,andpoliciesforreducingelectricitygenerationcanbeinitiatedwithoutdeterioratingeconomicsideeffectsinIndonesia.
Thispaperconsidersthepossibilityofbothalineareffectandnonlineareffectofenergyconsumptiononeconomicgrowth,usingdatafortheperiod1955–2003inTaiwan.
Wefindevidenceofalevel-dependenteffectbetweenthetwovariables.
Allowingforanonlineareffectofenergyconsumptiongrowthshedsnewlightontheexplanationofthecharacteristicsoftheenergy-growthlink.
WealsoprovideevidencethattherelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowthinTaiwanischaracterizedbyaninverseU-shape.
Somepreviousstudiessupporttheviewthatenergyconsumptionmaypromoteeconomicgrowth.
However,theconclusiondrawnfromtheempiricalfindingssuggeststhatsucharelationshipexistsonlywherethereisalowlevelofenergyconsumptioninTaiwan.
Weshowthatathresholdregressionprovidesabetterempiricalmodelthanthestandardlinearmodelandthatpolicy-makersshouldseektocaptureeconomicstructuresassociatedwithdifferentstagesofeconomicgrowth.
ItisalsoworthnotingthattheenergyconsumptionthresholdwasreachedinthecaseofTaiwanintheworldenergycrisesperiodsof1979and1982.
Inthispaperweinvestigatetheco-movementandthecausalityrelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionaswellaselectricityconsumptionandtheHDI(humandevelopmentindex)usingasaproxyofhumanwell-beingandbyincludingenergypricesasanadditionalvariable,infifteendevelopingcountriesfortheperiod1988to2008.
Recentlydevelopedtestsforthepanelunitroot,heterogeneouspanelcointegration,andpanel-basederrorcorrectionmodelsareemployed.
Theempiricalresultssupporttheneutralityhypothesisintheshort-term,regardstotalenergyorelectricityconsumption,implyinganabsenceofcausalityrunningineitherdirection.
Intheshortterm,energyaswellaselectricityconsumptionhasaneutraleffectontheHDI.
Inthelong-termthefindingsprovideaclearsupportofanegativecointegrationrelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandtheHDI.
WhileapositivecointegrationrelationshipexistsbetweenelectricityconsumptionandHDI.
A1%increaseinpercapitaenergyconsumptionreducestheHDIby0.
8%and,a1%increaseinpercapitaelectricityconsumptionincreasestheHDIby0.
22%.
Moreover,a1%increaseinenergypricereducestheHDIbyaround0.
11%.
Thisstudythusprovidesempiricalevidenceoflong-runandcausalrelationshipsbetweenenergyconsumptionandtheHDIforoursampleofcountries;supportingtheassertionthatlackorlimitedaccesstomodernenergyservicescouldhampereconomicandhumandevelopmentprospectsofcountriesandunderpinsalltheMDGs(millenniumdevelopmentgoals).
Theaimofthispaperistore-examinethecausalrelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowthforseventeenAfricancountriesinamultivariateframeworkbyincludinglaborandcapitalasadditionalvariables.
WeapplythevariancedecompositionanalysisduetoPesaranandShin[PesaranM.
H.
andShin,Y.
Generalisedimpulseresponseanalysisinlinearmultivariatemodels,EconomicsLetters,1998;58;17–29.
]toevaluatehowimportantisthecausalimpactofenergyconsumptiononeconomicgrowthrelativetolaborandcapital.
TheresultsofourmultivariatemodifiedGrangercausalityanalysisduetoTodaandYamamoto[Toda,H.
Y.
andYamamoto,T.
Statisticalinferenceinvectorautoregressionswithpossiblyintegratedprocess,JournalofEconometrics,1995;66;225–250.
]tendtorejecttheneutralityhypothesisfortheenergy–incomerelationshipinfifteenoutoftheseventeencountries.
Incontrast,resultsofourvariancedecompositionanalysesshowthatinelevenoutoftheseventeencountries,energyisnomorethanacontributingfactortooutputgrowthandnotanimportantonewhencomparedtocapitalandlabor.
Laborandcapitalarethemostimportantfactorsinoutputgrowthinfifteenoutoftheseventeencountries.
However,theseresultsshouldbeinterpretedwithcareastheymaynotbesufficientlyrobustenoughtosupporttheinferencethatenergyconsumptionplaysaminorroleintheeconomicgrowthofAfricancountries.
Thispaperexaminesthelong-runrelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandrealGDP,includingenergyprices,for25OECDcountriesfrom1981to2007.
Thedistinctionbetweencommonfactorsandidiosyncraticcomponentsusingprincipalcomponentanalysisallowstodistinguishbetweendevelopmentsonaninternationalandanationallevelasdriversofthelong-runrelationship.
Indeed,cointegrationbetweenthecommoncomponentsoftheunderlyingvariablesindicatesthatinternationaldevelopmentsdominatethelong-runrelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandrealGDP.
Furthermore,theresultssuggestthatenergyconsumptionisprice-inelastic.
Causalitytestsindicatethepresenceofabi-directionalcausalrelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowth.
ThoughthereisaverylargeliteratureexaminingwhetherenergyuseGrangercauseseconomicoutputorviceversa,itisfairlyinconclusive.
Almostallexistingstudiesuserelativelyshorttimeseries,orpanelswitharelativelysmalltimedimension.
WeapplyGrangercausalityandcointegrationtechniquestoaSwedishtimeseriesdatasetspanning150yearstotestwhetherincreasesinenergyuseandenergyqualityhavedriveneconomicgrowthorviceversa.
Weshowthatthesetechniquesareverysensitivetovariabledefinition,choiceofadditionalvariablesinthemodel,sampleperiodsandsize,andtheintroductionofstructuralbreaks.
Therelationshipbetweenenergyandgrowthmayalsohavechangedovertime–energycausesoutputinthefullsamplewhileoutputcausesenergyuseinrecentsmallersamples.
Energypriceshaveamorerobustcausalimpactonbothenergyuseandoutput.
Accesstomodernenergyisbelievedtobeaprerequisiteforsustainabledevelopment,povertyalleviationandtheachievementoftheMillenniumDevelopmentGoals.
However,theoreticalmodelsandempiricalresultsofferconflictingevidenceontherelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowththatweremainlargelyunsureofthecause-and-effectnatureofthisrelationship,ifindeedarelationshipexistsatall.
Thispapertests,inapanelcontext,thelong-runrelationshipbetweenenergyaccess,andeconomicgrowthforfifteenAfricancountriesfrom1980to2008byusingrecentlydevelopedpanelcointegrationtechniques.
Weadoptathree-stageapproach,consistingofpanelunitroot,panelcointegrationandGrangercausalityteststostudythedynamiccausalrelationshipsbetweenenergyconsumption,energypricesandgrowthaswellasrelationshipbetweenelectricityconsumption,pricesandgrowth.
ResultsshowthatGDPandenergyconsumptionaswellasGDPandelectricitymovetogetherinthelong-run.
Byestimatingtheselong-runrelationshipsandtestingforcausalityusingpanel-basederrorcorrectionmodels,wefoundunidirectionallong-runandshort-runcausality.
ThecausalityisrunningfromGDPtoenergyconsumptionintheshort-run,andfromenergyconsumptiontoGDPinthelong-run.
ThereisalsoevidenceofunidirectionalcausalityrunningfromelectricityconsumptiontoGDPinthelong-run.
Thisstudythusprovidesempiricalevidenceoflong-runandcausalrelationshipsbetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowthforoursampleoffifteencountries;suggestingthatlackorlimitedaccesstomodernenergyservicescouldhampereconomicgrowthandcompromisethedevelopmentprospectsofthesecountries.
Thispaperisacontributiontotheon-goingdebateoverwhetherthereisarelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowth.
Althoughtheoilexportingcountriesareamongthemostenergy-intensiveeconomiesintheworld,littleattentionhasbeenpaidtothefeaturesoftheirenergyconsumption.
Therefore,thisstudyempiricallyinvestigatesthetwovariablesdynamicrelationshipin12oilexportingcountriesfrom1990to2010.
Usingrecentlydevelopedpaneleconometrictechniques,thepresentpaperaccountsforcrosssectiondependenceandstructuralbreakswhenanalysingtheenergy-incomenexus.
Theresultsofthisstudyindicatethatthereexistsalong-runequilibriumrelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowth.
Furthermore,theempiricalevidenceofadynamicpanelerror-correctionmodelrevealsashort-rununidirectionalcausalityfromenergyconsumptiontoeconomicgrowth,whereasinthelong-run,itistheeconomicprocessthatdeterminestheenergyconsumptiontrend.
Theenergy-growthliteraturecontainsalargenumberofdiscussionsonthecausalrelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowth.
Thecentraldebatefocusesonwhetherenergyconsumptioncontributesornottoeconomicgrowthsinceithasdirectimplicationsfortheformulationofstrategicpolicies.
Nevertheless,currentstudiescannotprovideaconclusivesuggestionduetomixedcausalityresults.
Thisinconclusiveevidenceispotentiallyattributedtomodelspecificationsandthestageofeconomicdevelopmentofthecountriesunderinvestigation.
Hence,thisstudyattemptstoempiricallyre-investigatethevalidityoftheenergy-ledgrowthhypothesisusingadifferentmodelspecificationanddifferentstagesofeconomicdevelopmentfor85selectedcountriesaroundtheglobe.
Overall,althoughthecausalityresultsaremixedamongcountries,wedofindasystematicpattern.
Inparticular,Grangercausalitymodelswiththreeandfourvariablesaremorelikelytosupportthehypothesiscomparedtotheircounterpartsthatcontainonlytwovariables.
Inaddition,bothdevelopedanddevelopingcountriesaremorelikelytosupporttheenergy-ledgrowthhypothesiscomparedtothelessdevelopedorlowincomecountries.
Therefore,causalityresultsareverysensitivetothechoiceofthemodelspecificationalongwiththestagesofeconomicdevelopment.
Finally,energyconservationpoliciesshouldonlyfocusonlowincomecountriesasthesepoliciesmaynotretardtheprocessofeconomicgrowth.
Thispaperreassessesthecausalrelationshipbetweenpercapitaenergyuseandgrossdomesticproduct,whilecontrollingforcapitalandlabour(productivity)inputsinapanelof30OECDcountriesoverthepast40years.
Thepaperusespanelunitrootandcointegrationtestingandspecifiesanappropriatevectorerrorcorrectionmodeltoanalysethenexusbetweenincomeandenergyuse.
Indoingsowecontributetoanolddebateusingmoderntoolsthatshedanewlight.
Thereissomeevidencethatovertheveryshort-runbidirectionalcausalityexists.
OurresultsalsoshowastrongunidirectionalcausalityrunningfromcapitalformationandGDPtoenergyusage.
Inthelongrunthereversecausality,foundinrecentwork,islost.
WethenshowthatwecanreproducetheseearlierresultsinourdataifwereproduceaslightlymisspecifiedmodelfortheEngle–Grangertwo-stepprocedureusedintheseearlierpapers.
Ourfindingsthusimplythatresultsareverysensitivetomodelmisspecificationandcarefultestingofspecificationsisrequired.
Ourresultshavesomestrongpolicyimplications.
Theysuggestthatpoliciesaimedatreducingenergyusageorpromotingenergyefficiencyarenotlikelytohaveadetrimentaleffectoneconomicgrowth,exceptovertheveryshortrun.
ThispaperestimatesthetotaleffectofpoweroutagesoneconomicgrowthinSub-SaharanAfricaovertheperiod1995–2007.
WepaycloseattentionbothtopotentialerrorsofmeasurementofAfricaneconomicgrowthandtotheendogeneityofoutages.
AssuggestedbyHendersonetal.
(AmericanEconomicReview102(2):994–1028,2012),wecombinePennWorldTablesGDPdatawithsatellite-baseddataonnightlightstoarriveatamoreaccuratemeasureofeconomicgrowth.
FollowingAndersenetal.
(ReviewofEconomicsandStatistics94(4):903–924,2012),wealsoemploylightningdensityasaninstrumentforpoweroutages.
OurresultssuggestasubstantialgrowthdragofaweakpowerinfrastructureinSub-SaharanAfrica.
Thispapercombinestwoaggregateproductionfunctionmodels—onewithurbanizationasashiftfactorandonethatincludesenergy/electricityconsumptionandphysicalcapital—toestimatethemacro-levelrelationshipamongurbanization,energy/electricityconsumption,andeconomicgrowthusingapanelmethodthatisrobusttobothcointegrationandcross-sectionaldependence.
Forfourpanels(comprisinginturnhigh,uppermiddle,lowermiddle,andlowincomecountries)GDPpercapita,totalfinalenergyandelectricityconsumptionpercapita,grossfixedcapitalformationpercapita,andurbanizationwerefoundtobe1(1),cross-sectionallydependent,andcointegrated.
Thelong-runelasticityestimatessuggest(i)thaturbanizationisimportanttoandassociatedwitheconomicgrowth,(ii)thaturbanization'simpactoneconomicgrowthrangesfromsubstantiallynegativetonearlyneutraltopositiveascountriesdevelop—an"urbanizationladder"effect,and(iii)thatlessdevelopedcountriesareover-urbanized(theirelasticitiesbeingnegative).
WhiletheavailabilityofelectricitybyitselfisnotapanaceafortheeconomicandsocialproblemsfacingAfrica,thesupplyofelectricityisneverthelessbelievedtobeanecessaryrequirementforAfrica'seconomicandsocialdevelopment.
Thispaperteststhelong-runandcausalrelationshipbetweenelectricityconsumptionpercapitaandrealgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)percapitafor17Africancountriesfortheperiod1971–2001usinganewlydevelopedcointegrationtestproposedbyPesaranetal.
(2001)andusingamodifiedversionoftheGrangercausalitytestduetoTodaandYamamoto(1995).
Theadvantageofusingthesetwoapproachesisthattheybothavoidthepre-testingbiasassociatedwithconventionalunitrootandcointegrationtests.
Theempiricalevidenceshowsthattherewasalong-runrelationshipbetweenelectricityconsumptionpercapitaandrealGDPpercapitaforonly9countriesandGrangercausalityforonly12countries.
For6countriestherewasapositiveuni-directionalcausalityrunningfromrealGDPpercapitatoelectricityconsumptionpercapita;anoppositecausalityfor3countriesandbi-directionalcausalityfortheremaining3countries.
Theresultshould,however,beinterpretedwithcareaselectricityconsumptionaccountsforlessthan4%oftotalenergyconsumptioninAfricaandonlygrid-suppliedelectricityistakenintoaccount.
ThepurposeofthisstudyistoestimatetherelationshipsbetweenGDPandelectricityconsumptionin10newlyindustrializinganddevelopingAsiancountriesusingbothsingledatasetsandpaneldataprocedures.
Theempiricalresultsfromsingledatasetindicatethatthecausalitydirectionsinthe10Asiancountriesaremixedwhilethereisauni-directionalshort-runcausalityrunningfromeconomicgrowthtoelectricityconsumptionandabi-directionallong-runcausalitybetweenelectricityconsumptionandeconomicgrowthifthepaneldataprocedureisimplemented.
Theseempiricalfindingsimplythatelectricityconservationpoliciesthroughbothrationalizingtheelectricitysupplyefficiencyimprovementtoavoidthewastageofelectricityandmanagingdemandsidetoreducetheelectricityconsumptionwithoutaffectingtheend-userbenefitscouldbeinitiatedwithoutadverseeffectoneconomicgrowth.
Thefindingsonthelong-runrelationshipindicatethatasufficientlylargesupplyofelectricitycanensurethatahigherlevelofeconomicgrowth.
ThispaperattemptstoinvestigatethecausalrelationshipbetweenelectricityconsumptionandeconomicgrowthamongsevenSouthAmericancountries,namelyArgentina,Brazil,Chile,Columbia,Ecuador,Peru,andVenezuelausingwidelyacceptedtime-seriestechniquesfortheperiod1975–2006.
Theresultsindicatethatthecausalnexusbetweenelectricityconsumptionandeconomicgrowthvariesacrosscountries.
Thereisaunidirectional,short-runcausalityfromelectricityconsumptiontorealGDPforArgentina,Brazil,Chile,Columbia,andEcuador.
Thismeansthatanincreaseinelectricityconsumptiondirectlyaffectseconomicgrowthinthosecountries.
InVenezuela,thereisabi-directionalcausalitybetweenelectricityconsumptionandeconomicgrowth.
Thisimpliesthatanincreaseinelectricityconsumptiondirectlyaffectseconomicgrowthandthateconomicgrowthalsostimulatesfurtherelectricityconsumptioninthatcountry.
However,nocausalrelationshipsexistinPeru.
ThedocumentedevidencefromsevenSouthAmericancountriescanprovideusefulinformationforeachgovernmentwithregardtoenergyandgrowthpolicy.
Theaimofthispaperistoprovidenewempiricalevidenceontherelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowthfor21Africancountriesovertheperiodfrom1970to2006,usingrecentlydevelopedpanelcointegrationandcausalitytests.
Thecountriesaredividedintotwogroups:netenergyimportersandnetenergyexporters.
Itisfoundthatthereexistsalong-runequilibriumrelationshipbetweenenergyconsumption,realGDP,prices,laborandcapitalforeachgroupofcountriesaswellasforthewholesetofcountries.
Thisresultisrobusttopossiblecross-countrydependenceandstillholdswhenallowingformultipleendogenousstructuralbreaks,whichcandifferamongcountries.
Furthermore,wefindthatdecreasingenergyconsumptiondecreasesgrowthandviceversa,andthatincreasingenergyconsumptionincreasesgrowth,andviceversa,andthatthisappliesforbothenergyexportersandimporters.
Finally,thereisamarkeddifferenceinthecointegrationrelationshipwhencountrygroupsareconsidered.
ThiscontributioninvestigatescausalinterdependencebetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowthinLiberiaandproposesapplicationofabootstrapmethodology.
Tobetterreflectcausality,employmentisincorporatedasadditionalvariable.
ThestudydemonstratesevidenceofdistinctbidirectionalGrangercausalitybetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowth.
Additionally,theresultsshowthatemploymentinLiberiaGrangercauseseconomicgrowthandapplyirrespectiveoftheshort-runorlong-run.
EvidencefromaMonteCarloexperimentrevealsthattheasymptoticGrangercausalitytestsufferssizedistortionproblemforLiberiandata,suggestingthatthebootstraptechniqueemployedinthisstudyismoreappropriate.
Giventheempiricalresults,implicationsarethatenergyexpansionpolicieslikeenergysubsidyorlowenergytariffforinstance,wouldbenecessarytocopewithdemandexertedasaresultofeconomicgrowthinLiberia.
Furthermore,Liberiamighthavetheperformanceofitsemploymentgenerationontheeconomypartlydeterminedbyadequateenergy.
Therefore,itseemsfullyjustifiedthataquickshifttowardsenergyproductionbasedoncleanenergysourcesmaysignificantlyslowdowneconomicgrowthinLiberia.
Hence,thegovernment'stargettoimplementalong-termstrategytomakeLiberiaacarbonneutralcountry,andeventuallylesscarbondependentby2050isunderstandable.
Unlikepreviousenergyconsumption-economicgrowthstudies,thisstudyexaminestherelationshipamongenergyconsumption,economicgrowth,employmentandgrossfixedcapitalformationfor17highlydevelopedOECDcountriesbyemployingboththeToda–Yamamotoprocedurewhichbasedonasymptoticcriticalvaluesandthebootstrap-correctedcausalitytest,sincenon-normalityoftheerrortermharmsthevalidityoftheToda–Yamamotoprocedure.
Thisstudyfindsthatthereisverysmallbiasduetotheassumptionofnormality.
Furthermoreusingdifferentinformationcriterions,importanceoflaglengthistested.
FindingsindicatethatselectionoflaglengthisimportantforDenmark,Ireland,NorwayandSpain.
Itisconcludedthatwhilethereexistsuni-directionalcausalityrunningfromenergyconsumptiontorealGDPforJapan,bi-directionalcausalityisfoundforItaly,NewZealand,NorwayandSpain.
Ontheotherhand,uni-directionalcausalityfromGDPtoenergyisfoundforAustralia,CanadaandIrelandwhereasnocausalnexusisfoundforallofotherninecountries.
OuranalysescoveringthesampleperiodsimplythatJapan,Italy,NewZealand,NorwayandSpainshouldnotfollowenergyconservationpolicyattheaggregatedlevel,sincethereductionofenergydamagestheeconomicgrowth.
ThecausalrelationshipbetweenGDPandenergyconsumptionisawell-studiedtopicforvariouscountries.
ThispaperutilizesJohansen-JuseliusCointegrationMethodologyandVectorErrorCorrectionModelingtoanalyzethisrelationshipforTurkey.
TheresultsindicateaunidirectionalcausalityrunningfromenergyconsumptiontoGDP.
Thus,energyconsumptionpositivelyaffectsGDP.
Thissuggeststhatapossibleenergyconservationprogrammayharmeconomicgrowthinthelongrun.
Energyplaysavitalroleineconomicdevelopment.
Itperformsakeyforsustainabledevelopment.
Hence,manystudieshaveattemptedtolookforthedirectionofcausalitybetweenenergyconsumption(EC),economicgrowth(GDP)andCO2emissions.
Thispaper,therefore,appliesthepanelunitroottests,panelcointegrationmethodsandpanelcausalitytesttoinvestigatetherelationshipbetweenEC,GDPandCO2emissionsfor15MENAcountriescoveringtheannualperiod1973-2008.
ThefindingofthisstudyrevealsthatthereisnocausallinkbetweenGDPandEC;andbetweenCO2emissionsandECintheshortrun.
However,inthelongrun,thereisaunidirectionalcausalityrunningfromGDPandCO2emissionstoEC.
Inaddition,todealwiththeheterogeneityincountriesandtheendogeneitybiasinregressors,thispaperappliesrespectivelytheFMOLSandtheDOLSapproachtoestimatethelong-runrelationshipbetweenthesethreefactors.
ThisstudyisthefirstemployingannualdataforTurkeyfrom1970to2010toexaminetheshortandlong-runcausalrelationshipbetweeneconomicgrowth,electricitygeneration,exportsandpricesinamultivariatemodel.
Accordingtotheboundstestresults,whenelectricitygenerationandeconomicgrowtharethedependentvariabletherearetwocointegratingrelationships.
Accordingtotheresults,long-runequilibriumrelationshipandlong-termcausalityarefoundbetweeneconomicgrowth,electricitygeneration,exportandprice.
Hence,intheshort-run,therearebi-directionalcausalitiesbetweeneconomicgrowth-electricitygeneration,economicgrowth-exportandelectricitygeneration-exportwithfeedbackeffect.
ThepaperinvestigatestheroleofinfrastructureinpromotingeconomicgrowthinChinausingARDLandGMMtechniquesfortheperiod1975to2007.
Inthiscontext,anattemptismadetounderstandgrowthaccountingequationstoinvestigatetheimpactofinfrastructuredevelopmentonoutput.
Overall,theresultsrevealthatinfrastructurestock,labourforce,publicandprivateinvestmentplayanimportantroleineconomicgrowthinChina.
Moreimportantly,thestudyfindsthatInfrastructuredevelopmentinChinahassignificantpositivecontributiontogrowththanbothprivateandpublicinvestment.
Further,thereisunidirectionalcausalityfrominfrastructuredevelopmenttooutputgrowthjustifyingChina'shighspendingoninfrastructuredevelopmentsincetheearlynineties.
TheexperiencefromChinasuggeststhatitisnecessarytodesignaneconomicpolicythatimprovesthephysicalinfrastructureaswellashumancapitalformationforsustainableeconomicgrowthindevelopingcountries.
EnergyisthebasicsupportofChina'sfasteconomicgrowth,industrializationandmodernization,butChinahassufferedfromanenergyshortage.
WeexaminetheroleofenergydevelopmentinChina,andthenassesstheeffectthatenergyshortageshaveoneconomicdevelopmentintheshort-term.
Wesuggestsomepoliciesforenergysavinganddevelopmentinthelong-term.
Thepaperinvestigatesthelongrunrelationshipbetweenenergyusepercapitaandpercapitarealgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)for19Africancountriesfortheperiod1971–2001usinganewlydevelopedcointegrationtestproposedby[Pesaran,M.
H.
,Shin,Y,&Smith,R.
(2001).
Boundstestingapproachtotheanalysisoflevelrelationships.
JounalofAppliedEconometrics,16,289–325],whichiscapableoftestingfortheexistenceofalongrunrelationshipregardlessofwhethertheunderlyingtimeseriesareindividuallyI(0),I(1)ormutuallycointegrated.
Thepaperalsousesthe[Toda,H.
Y.
,&Yamamoto,T.
(1995).
Statisticalinferenceinvectorautoregressionswithpossiblyintegratedprocess.
JounalofEconometrics,66,225–250]versionoftheGrangercausalitytestwhichisvalidregardlessofwhetheraseriesisI(0),I(1)orI(2),non-cointegratedorcointegratedofanyarbitraryorder.
Theempiricalevidenceshowsthattherewasalongrunrelationshipbetweenthetwoseriesforonlyeightcountriesandcausalityforonly10countries.
SeveralindustrializedcountrieshavesignedtheKyotoProtocol,promisingtoreducegreenhousegasses(GHG)emissions.
Toreduceormitigatesuchemissionsseveralpoliciesincludingreducingenergyconsumption,increasingenergyefficiency,decreasingenergyintensityandforestationmaybepossible.
Theviabilityandeffectivenessofeachpolicymaydifferduetocountryspecificfactors.
ThispapertriestoassesstheimpactofachangeinenergyconsumptiononincomeandviceversainG-7countries.
Weemploymultivariatecointegration,errorcorrectionmodelsandgeneralizedvariancedecompositionsanduncoverGrangercausalityrelationbetweenenergyconsumptionandincomeinallcountries.
However,thedirectionofcausalityseemstodifferacrosscountries.
Thismaysuggestthatalthoughtheyareatthesamelevelofeconomicdevelopment,differentpolicyalternativesinsupportoftheprotocolmaybeavailableineachcountry.
Energyarguablyplaysavitalroleineconomicdevelopment.
Hencemanystudieshaveattemptedtotestforcausalitybetweenenergyandeconomicgrowth;however,noconsensushasemerged.
Thispaper,therefore,testsforcausalitybetweenenergyandGDPusingaconsistentdatasetandmethodologyforover100countries.
CausalityfromenergytoGDPisfoundtobemoreprevalentinthedevelopedOECDcountriescomparedtothedevelopingnon-OECDcountries;implyingthatapolicytoreduceenergyconsumptionaimedatreducingemissionsislikelytohavegreaterimpactontheGDPofthedevelopedratherthanthedevelopingworld.
Theobjectiveofthispaperistoexaminethelong-runrelationshipbetweenoutput,pollutantemissions,andenergyconsumptioninMalaysiaduringtheperiod1971–1999.
Tosupplementthefindingsofcointegratinganalysis,weassessthecausalrelationshipsbetweenthevariablesusingtherecentcausalitytestsavailableintheliterature.
Theresultsindicatethatpollutionandenergyusearepositivelyrelatedtooutputinthelong-run.
Wefoundastrongsupportforcausalityrunningfromeconomicgrowthtoenergyconsumptiongrowth,bothintheshort-runandlong-run.
ThisstudyutilizesU.
S.
annualdatafrom1949to2006toexaminethecausalrelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandrealGDPusingaggregateandsectoralprimaryenergyconsumptionmeasureswithinamultivariateframework.
TheToda–Yamamotolong-runcausalitytestsrevealthattherelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandrealGDPisnotuniformacrosssectors.
Granger-causalityisabsentbetweentotalandtransportationprimaryenergyconsumptionandrealGDP,respectively.
BidirectionalGranger-causalityispresentbetweencommercialandresidentialprimaryenergyconsumptionandrealGDP,respectively.
Finally,theresultsindicatethatindustrialprimaryenergyconsumptionGranger-causesrealGDP.
TheresultssuggestthatprudentenergyandenvironmentalpoliciesshouldrecognizethedifferencesintherelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandrealGDPbysector.
Departingfrompreviousstudiesonthecausalrelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowth,thispaperillustrateshowthefindingofcointegration(i.
e.
,longtermequilibriumrelationship)betweenthesevariables,maybeusedintestingGrangercausality.
BasedonthemostrecentJohansen'smultiplecointegrationtestsprecededbyvariousunitrootornonstationaritytests,wetestforcointegrationbetweentotalenergyconsumption,realincome,andpriceleveloftwohighlyenergydependentEast-AsianNICs:KoreaandTaiwan.
NonrejectionofcointegrationbetweenvariablesrulesoutGrangernoncausalityandimpliesatleastonewayofGrangercausality,eitherunidirectionalorbidirectional.
Secondly,byusingadynamicvectorerror-correctionmodel,wethenanalyzethedirectionofGrangercausationandhencethewithin-sampleGrangerexogeneityorendogeneityofeachofthevariables.
Thirdly,therelativestrengthofthecausalityisgauged(throughthedynamicvariancedecompositiontechnique)bydecomposingthetotalimpactofanunanticipatedshocktoeachofthevariablesbeyondthesampleperiod,intoproportionsattributabletoshocksintheothervariables,includingitsown,inthemultivariatesystem.
Finally,theseresponsepathsofshockstothesystemaretracedoutusingimpulseresponsegraphs.
Resultsbasedonthesefourdynamictoolsofanalysisbroadlyindicatethatallthreevariablesarecointegratedandmutuallycausal.
TheGrangercausalchainimpliedbyourevidencetendstosuggestthatalthoughallthesevariablesareendogenous(i.
e.
,theyallsharethebruntofadjustmenttoreestablishthelong-termequilibrium),relativelyinthesetwohighlyenergy-dependenteconomies,inlinewithexpectations,itistherateofpricechangethatleadstothechangeinenergyconsumption,whichthenleadsontothechangeineconomicgrowth.
Overall,shockstothesystemseemedtohavehadamoresustainedifnotpronouncedeffectinKoreathaninTaiwan.
ThispaperempiricallyexaminedthecausalitybetweenelectricityconsumptionandeconomicgrowthintwodenselypopulatedcountriesinSouthAsia,IndiaandPakistan.
Thecausalityanalysiswasestimatedataggregatedanddisaggregatedlevelwherethefocusoftheanalysiswasontheagriculturalsector.
Thedisaggregatedcausalityanalysisindicatedabi-directionalcausalitybetweentheagriculturalelectricityconsumptionandtheagriculturalGDPinIndia,whileinPakistanthecausalitywasfoundtorunfromagriculturalGDPtoagriculturalelectricityconsumption.
Attheaggregatedlevel,IndiaconfirmedconservationhypothesiswhilePakistanconfirmedfeedbackhypothesis.
Fromthepublicpolicypointofview,itcanbeinferredthat,atthemacrolevel,anyelectricityconservationmeasuresinIndiawillnothaveanaffectonIndia'sincreasingeconomicgrowthprospectsandhenceapolicy-favouritesupply-enhancementstrategyintheformofincreasingelectricitygenerationneedstobebalancedwithademand-managementstrategy.
IncaseofPakistananysuchpolicyrecommendationisdifficultgiventhebidirectionalnatureofcausality.
Takingintoaccountsforthedualroleofenergyinthedemandandsupply,thispaperdevelopsavectorerrorcorrectionmodel(VECM)totestfortheexistenceanddirectionofcausalitybetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicdevelopmentinMalaysia.
UsingtheJohansencointegrationtechnique,theresultsindicatethatthelong-runmovementsofeconomicdevelopment,energyprice,thestructureofeconomy,capital,labourandenergyuseinMalaysiaarerelatedbytwocointegratingvectors.
Further,theresultsshowthatthereisdirectionalcausalityrunningfromeconomicdevelopmenttoenergyconsumption.
Hence,animportantpolicyimplicationofthisstudyisthatenergysavingwouldnotharmeconomicdevelopmentinMalaysia.
Thispaperoffersanempiricalevaluationoftheoutputcontributionofinfrastructure.
Drawingfromalargedatasetoninfrastructurestockscovering88countriesandspanningtheyears1960–2000,andusingapaneltime-seriesapproach,thepaperestimatesalong-runaggregateproductionfunctionrelatingGDPtohumancapital,physicalcapital,andasyntheticmeasureofinfrastructuregivenbythefirstprincipalcomponentofinfrastructureendowmentsintransport,power,andtelecommunications.
Testsofthecointegrationrankallowingittovaryacrosscountriesrevealacommonrankwithasinglecointegratingvector,whichistakentorepresentthelong-runproductionfunction.
Estimationofitsparametersisperformedusingthepooledmeangroupestimator,whichallowsforunrestrictedshort-runparameterheterogeneityacrosscountrieswhileimposingthe(testable)restrictionoflong-runparameterhomogeneity.
Thelong-runelasticityofoutputwithrespecttothesyntheticinfrastructureindexrangesbetween0.
07and0.
10.
Theestimatesarehighlysignificant,bothstatisticallyandeconomically,androbusttoalternativedynamicspecificationsandinfrastructuremeasures.
Thereislittleevidenceoflongrunparameterheterogeneityacrosscountries,whetherheterogeneityisunconditional,orconditionalontheirlevelofdevelopment,populationsize,orinfrastructureendowments.
Astheworldstrugglestoemergefromaglobalrecessionandfinancialcrisis,countriesarelookingforsolutionstoimprovedomesticeconomicperformanceandputpeoplebacktowork.
Globalenergydemandandpriceshavebeenresilientduringtherecession,leadingpolicy-makersincountrieswiththepotentialtoproduceenergytolooktothatsectorasapotentialengineforeconomicgrowth.
Theobjectiveofthisstudyistoundertakeanempiricalstudyonlinkagesamongenergyconsumption,economicgrowth,FDI,relativepriceandfinancialdevelopment(i.
e.
,broadmoneysupply–M2)inlowincome,middleincome,highincomenon-OECD,highincomeOECD,SouthAfrica,MiddleEastandNorthAfrica(MENA)andtheaggregatedataoftheWorldoveraperiodof1975–2011.
DataisanalyzedbytheIm–Pesaran–Shin(IPS)testofunitroottofindouttheorderofintegration.
Thelong-runrelationshipisinvestigatedthroughthePedroni[37]testofpanelcointegration.
Atlast,theSeeminglyUnrelatedRegression(SUR)methodisusedforestimationoftheimpactofgrowthfactorsonenergyconsumptionintheseregions.
Theresultsrevealthateachvariableseemtohaveaunitrootatlevel,sowecouldinvestigatecointegrationoftheseriesatlevel.
OnthebasisofPedronitest,wecanbringtoaclosethatseriesarecointegrated.
Theresultsofseeminglyunrelatedregression(SUR)suggeststhatGDPpercapitahasapositiveimpactonenergyconsumptioninlowincome,middleincome,SouthAfrica,MENAandaggregatedataoftheWorld.
However,inhighincomeOECDandnon-OECDregions,thereisnosignificantrelationshipbeenfoundinbothregions.
FDIplaysapivotalroleinincreasingenergydemandinmiddleincome,highincomeOECDandnon-OECDregionwhichimpliesthatwhateverotherbenefitsmayaccruefromFDI,itshouldnotbeexpectedtogeneratesufficientenergyinSouthAfrica,MENAandtheWorlddirectly.
FDIenhancementpoliciesshouldbesupplementedtostimulategrowthinthoseregions.
Broadmoneysupplyexertspositiveimpactonenergydemandinlowincome,middleincome,highincomenon-OECDandMENAregions.
Finally,relativepriceshaseitherapositiveimpacti.
e.
,middleincomeregionand/oranegativeimpactonenergyconsumptioni.
e.
,lowincome,highincomeOECDandMENAregion.
Theresultsconcludethatlowerenergypricesreduceinputcostsfornearlyallgoodsandservicesintheregions,thusmakingthemmoreaffordable.
Thispaperexaminestherelationshipbetweennaturalgasconsumption,economicgrowthandcapitalbyusingG-7countriesdataandabootstrap-correctedcausalitytestfortheperiod1970–2008.
ItwasfoundeightsignificantGrangercausalityrelationships.
ForItaly,theGrangercausalityisfromnaturalgasconsumptiontogrowthandUnitedKingdomadverse.
ForpatternofFrance,GermanyandUnitedStatesthereistwosidedGrangercausalitybetweennaturalgasandgrowth.
Thispaperappliesthemostrecentlydevelopedpanelunitroot,heterogeneouspanelcointegrationandpanel-basederrorcorrectionmodelstore-investigateco-movementandthecausalrelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandrealGDPwithinamultivariateframeworkthatincludescapitalstockandlaborinputfor16Asiancountriesduringthe1971–2002period.
Itemploystheproductionsidemodel(aggregateproductionfunction).
Theempiricalresultsfullysupportapositivelong-runcointegratedrelationshipbetweenrealGDPandenergyconsumptionwhentheheterogeneouscountryeffectistakenintoaccount.
Itisfoundthatalthougheconomicgrowthandenergyconsumptionlackshort-runcausality,thereislong-rununidirectionalcausalityrunningfromenergyconsumptiontoeconomicgrowth.
ThismeansthatreducingenergyconsumptiondoesnotadverselyaffectGDPintheshort-runbutwouldinthelong-run;thus,thesecountriesshouldadoptamorevigorousenergypolicy.
Furthermore,webroadentheinvestigationbydividingthesamplecountriesintotwocross-regionalgroups,namelytheAPECandASEANgroups,andevenmoreimportantresultsandimplicationsemerge.
Arecentlydevelopedmethodologyofthecointegrationtestisemployedtodeterminewhetherenergyconsumptionhasalong-runequilibriumrelationshipwiththelevelofincomeoremployment.
Itisfoundthatthelong-runequilibriumrelationshipfailstoexistineithercase.
Thefindingimpliesalong-runneutralityofenergyconsumption,whichisconsistentwiththeshort-runneutralityfoundintheliterature.
Theresultsarefurtherconfirmedbysplittingthesampleintotwosub-periods.
ThispaperexaminesthecausalityissuebetweenenergyconsumptionandGDPforSouthKoreaandSingapore,withtheaidofcointegrationanderror-correctionmodeling.
Resultsofthecointegrationanderror-correctionmodelsindicatebidirectionalcausalitybetweenGDPandenergyconsumptionforbothSouthKoreaandSingapore.
However,resultsofthestandardGrangercausalitytestsshownocausalrelationshipbetweenGDPandenergyconsumptionforSouthKoreaandunidirectionalcausalrelationshipfromenergyconsumptiontoGDPforSingapore.
ThePacificIslandcountriesaresmallislandeconomiesthatareincreasinglydependentonenergyforgrowthanddevelopment,yethighlysusceptibletoclimatechange.
Thus,therelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandGDPiscrucialforrealizingtheirfuturedevelopmentandgrowthobjectives.
ThisarticletestsforGrangercausalityandprovideslong-runstructuralestimatesfortherelationshipbetweenenergyconsumption,GDPandurbanizationforapanelofPacificIslandcountries.
Forthepanelasawholeinthelong-runthereisbidirectionalGrangercausalitybetweenenergyconsumptionandGDPandthesevariablesexertapositiveimpactoneachother.
A1%increaseinenergyconsumptionincreasesGDPby0.
11%,whilea1%increaseinGDPincreasesenergyconsumptionby0.
23%.
Thefindingssuggestthatforthepanelasawholethesecountriesshouldincreaseinvestmentinenergyinfrastructureandregulatoryreformofenergyinfrastructuretoimprovedeliveryefficiency,continuetopromotealternativeenergysourcesandputinplaceenergyconservationpoliciestoreduceunnecessarywastage.
Thesestrategiesseektorealizethedualobjectivesofreducingtheadverseeffectsofenergyuseontheenvironment,whileavoidingthenegativeeffectoneconomicgrowthofreducingenergyconsumption.
Energyarguablyplaysavitalroleineconomicdevelopment.
Hencemanystudieshaveattemptedtotestforcausalitybetweenenergyandeconomicgrowth;however,noconsensushasemerged.
Thispaper,therefore,testsforcausalitybetweenenergyandGDPusingaconsistentdatasetandmethodologyfor30OECDand78non-OECDcountries.
CausalityfromaggregateenergyconsumptiontoGDPandGDPtoenergyconsumptionisfoundtobemoreprevalentinthedevelopedOECDcountriescomparedtothedevelopingnon-OECDcountries;implyingthatapolicytoreduceenergyconsumptionaimedatreducingemissionsislikelytohavegreaterimpactontheGDPofthedevelopedratherthanthedevelopingworld.
Thisworkadaptspercapitaincome,energydemand(sub-groupdecomposed),inequalityandpovertyframeworksinasimultaneousequationssettingtoinvestigatetheroleofenergysourcesonpercapitaincome,inequalityandpovertyinSouthAfrica.
Itfindsthatenergysources(particularlyelectricityanddiesel)areimportantinestimatingproductionfunctions.
Gasoline,keroseneandcoalallexacerbatepoverty,withthehighestimpactsonabjectpoverty.
Itisbettertodisaggregateenergysourcesinordertocaptureresource-specificdetails.
Redistributioneffortsthatfocusonreductionofbetween-groupinequalitycanalsomoderateenergyusesincebetween-groupinequalitytendstoincreasethedemandformostenergysources.
Publiceffortsareyieldingfruitsinthisdirectionandshouldbeencouraged.
Accesstoenergysourceslikeelectricity,dieselandgasarecrucialforproductivityenhancement,butforthemtoyieldsignificantanti-povertyfruits,effortsmustalsotargetbroadeningcapitalaccessbythepoor.
Thisstudyappliespanelestimationtechniquestoinvestigatethelong-runrelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandGDPforapanelof18Africancountries(COMESA).
Inthefirststep,weexaminethedegreeofintegrationbetweenGDPandenergyconsumptionandfindthatthevariablesareintegratedoforderone.
Wealsoinvestigatethelong-runrelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandGDP;ourcointegrationresultsprovidestrongevidencethatGDPandenergyconsumptionmovetogetherinthelong-run.
Onaper-countrybasis,FMOLSresultsrevealthatenergyconsumptionhasapositivelong-runrelationshipwithGDP.
Finally,resultsfromthepanelerrorcorrectionmodelshownoevidenceofashort-runtransitoryrelationshipbetweenGDPandenergyconsumption;however,inthelong-run,theerrorcorrectionmodelcapturesalong-runbidirectionalrelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandGDP.
WeapplyrecentpanelmethodologytoinvestigatetherelationshipbetweenelectricityconsumptionandrealGDPforasetof12EuropeanUnioncountriesusingannualdatafortheperiod1970-2004.
Recentlydevelopedtestsforpanelunitroots,cointegrationinheterogeneouspanelsandpanelcausalityareemployed.
Theresultsshowalong-runrelationshipbetweentheseries.
Weestimatethisrelationshipandtestforcausality.
Wendnoshort-runcausalityinanydirection.
Theseresultsmighthelptodesignappropriateelectricityconsumptionpoliciesinthesamplecountries,aswellasinvestmentpoliciesininterconnectionstobuildasingleEuropeanmarketforelectricity.
Thisstudyinvestigatesthecausalrelationshipbetweencleanandnon-cleanenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowthinBrazilovertheperiodof1980–2009.
Cleanenergyconsumptionataggregatedleveloftotalrenewableenergyconsumptionanddisaggregatedlevelsofhydroelectric,newrenewables,andnuclearenergyconsumptionaretestedwithinaproductionfunctionframework.
Acointegrationtestrevealsalong-termequilibriumrelationshipbetweenrealoutput,capital,labor,andrenewableandnonrenewableenergyconsumptionataggregatedlevel,andalong-termequilibriumrelationshipbetweenrealoutput,capital,labor,andhydroelectric/newrenewables/nuclearandfossilfuelenergyconsumptionatdisaggregatedlevel.
Thecapital,labor,andnewrenewableselasticitiesofrealoutputarepositiveandstatisticallysignificant,otherenergyconsumptionitem'selasticitiesareinsignificant.
Theresultsfromerrorcorrectionmodelrevealtheinterdependenciesbetweennewrenewables,nuclear,fossilfuel,andtionbydividingthesamplecountriesintotwocross-regionalgroups,namelytheAPECandASEANgroups,andevenmoreimportantresultsandimplicationsemerge.
rootatlevel,sowecouldinvestigatecointegrationoftheseriesatlevel.
OnthebasisofPedronitest,wecanbringtoaclosethatseriesarecointegrated.
Theresultsofseeminglyunrelatedregression(SUR)suggeststhatGDPpercapitahasapositiveimpactonenergyconsumptioninlowincome,middleincome,SouthAfrica,MENAandaggregatedataoftheWorld.
However,inhighincoUnderstandingtheimpactofenergyconsumptiononeconomicgrowthisanimportantconsiderationintheformulationofbothenergyandenvironmentalpolicies.
Motivatedbythisdevelopment,thispaperempiricallyre-examinesthedirectionofcausalityandthesign(inthepanelsense)betweenenergyconsumption(EC)andthegross-domesticproduct(GDP)forseventeenselectedAsiancountries.
Resultsreveallong-runstableequilibriumsinthesecountries,whiletheECbringsaboutapositiveimpactonGDP.
CausalityrunsfromECtoGDPintheshort-run,whilethelong-runcausallinkageexistsfromGDPtoEC.
Thisindicatesthatenergyisaforceforeconomicgrowthintheshort-run,butinthelong-run,theECisfundamentallydrivenbyeconomicgrowth.
Efficientcoordinationandcooperationtowardstheimplementationofenergyconservationpoliciestosupportsustainableeconomicdevelopmentshouldbeintheregionalagenda.
TheaimofthispaperistostudythenatureoftherelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowthinCameroonthroughathree-stepapproach:(i)Studythestationarityofthechronic,(ii)testofcausalitybetweenvariablesand(iii)estimatetheappropriatemodel.
Thestudyconcludesinanon-stationarityoftheseries.
Usingthedatainfirstdifference,theGrangercausalitytestyieldsastrongevidenceforunidirectionalcausalityrunningfromOILtoGDP.
Cointegrationtestsalsoshowthatthesetwoseriesareco-integratedandtheErrorCorrectionModel(ECM)revealsthateverypercentageincreaseinOilproductsconsumptionincreaseseconomicgrowthbyaround1.
1%.
Thisresultconfirmstheintuitionthataneconomicpolicyaimedatimprovingenergysupplywillnecessarilyhaveapositiveimpactoneconomicgrowth.
Ontheotherside,alackofenergyisamajorbottleneckforfurthereconomicdevelopmentinCameroon.
TestingforstationarityandcointegrationTestingfordirectionofcausalityInclusionofenergypricevariableInclusionofcapitalvariableInclusionoflaborforcevariableInclusionofall3variablesFileNameYYNNYNAPdevJ2001energygrowthPakistanYYNNNNAPdevJ2008EnergygrowthNepalYYNNNNAppeco1988energyGDPco-integrationYYYNNNAppEco1998multivatecointegratedmodelAsianLDCsYYNYNNAppecolet1997energygrowthbrazilmexicovenezuelaYYNNNNApplEconInternationalDev2008energy-GDPinSouthAsiaNNNYYNAppliedEnergy2009PowerreliabilityinShanghaiYYNYYNEcoEcon2009energyconsumptiongrowthcarbonYYNYYNEcoEcon2009EUenergyconsumptiongrowthcarbonNNNYYNEcoleco2008energyGDPpanelYYNNNNEconomicmodeling2012EnergyandrealGDPin93countriesNNNNNNEnPol2010literaturereviewNYNNYNEneeco1984energyGNPNNYNNNEneeco1990electricitygrowthJamaicaNYNYYNEneeco1993energygrowthUSAYYNNNNEneeco1996energyincomeerror-correctionYYNNYNEneeco1997co-integrationenergyeconomyTaiwanYYNYYNEneeco2000energymacroUSYYYNNNEneeco2000energypricegrowthAsiaYYNNNNEneeco2000GDPenergyTaiwanYYYNNNEneeco2002energygrowthGreeceYYYNNNEneeco2002energyincomeKoreaYYNNNNEneeco2003energyGDPG-7YYNNNNEneeco2004electricitygrowthMalawiYYNNNNEneeco2004ElectricitysupplygrowthSriLankaYYNYYNEneeco2004energygrowthCanadaYYNNNNEneeco2004energygrowthIndiaYYNYYNEneeco2004GDPenergyKorea(1970-1999)YYNNNNEneeco2004industrialenergyGDPShanghai(1952-1999)YYNNNNEneeco2004Structuralbreak,energyGDPTurkeyYYNNNNEneeco2005electricityecongrowthTurkeyYYYYNNEneeco2005EnergyGDPdevelopingcountriesYYNNNNEneeco2005EnergygrowthstructuralbreakTaiwanYYYNNNEneeco2007electricityconsumptionCyprusNYNNNNEneeco2007electricityconsumptionOPECYYNNYNEneeco2007electricityGDPFijiislandsYYNNNNEneeco2007electricitygrowthChinaYYNYNNEneeco2007energyeconactivitiesIranYYNNNNEneeco2007EnergyGDPTurkeyco-integrationYYNNNNEneeco2007EnergyGDPTurkeypanelYYNNNNEneeco2007EnergygrowthCaribbeancountriesYYNNNNEneeco2007energygrowthG-7countriesNYYNNNEneeco2007ResidentialelectricitydemandTurkeyYYNNNNEneeco2008energyGDPTaiwanYYNYYNEneeco2008energygrowthChinaaggregatedanddisaggregatedYYNNNNEneeco2008energygrowthGrangercausalityNYYNNNEneeco2008energygrowthSub-SarahaAfricaYYNYYNEneeco2008energyincomeOCEDcapitalstockYYNYNNEneeco2008energyrealGDPG7panelYYNNYNEneeco2009electricitygrowthSouthAfricaYYNYYNEneeco2009EnergygrowthAfricaYYNYYNEneeco2009EnergygrowthCentralAmericaYYNYYNEneeco2009EnergygrowthCommonwealthofIndependentStatesYYYNNNEneEco2010energygrowthmulti-sectoralanalysisYYNYYNEneEco2010energygrowthSouthAmericaYYYNNNEneEco2012IncomeenergyGDPSub-SaharanAfricaNYNNNNEnePol1996EnergyGrowthTanzaniaNigeriaNNNNNNEnePol2000ElectricitydevelopmentYYNNNNEnePol2002electricitygrowthIndiaYYNNNNEnePol2004ElectricitygrowthinChinaYYNNYNEnePol2005ElectricityemploymentincomeAustrailiaYYNNNNEnePol2005ElectricitygrowthKoreaYYNNNNEnePol2006electricitygrowthASEANYYNNNNEnePol2006EnergyGDPG-11YYNNNNEnePol2006EnergyGDPGulfCooperationCouncilpanelYYNNNNEnePol2007carbonenergyoutputFranceYYNNNNEnePol2007ElectricityGDPBangladeshYYYNNNEnePol2007electricityresidentialdemandelasticityG7YYNNNNEnePol2007energygrowthoilexportingcountriesYYYNNNEnePol2007energygrowthpriceVECMYYNYYNEnePol2007incomeenergysixdevelopingcountriesYYNNNNEnePol2007sectoralenergygrowthTurkeyYYNNNNEnepol2008ElectricityGDPOECDYYNNNNEnePol2008electricitygrowthMalaysiaYYNNNNEnePol2008EnergygrowthinformaleconomyYYNNNNEnePol2008energygrowthTurkeyYYNNNNEnePol2009carbonenergyincomeTurkeyYYNNNNEnePol2009CO2energyoutputCentralAmericaYYNNNNEnepol2009electricityexportsGDPMiddleeastYYNNYNEnePol2009energyemploymentGDPIndiaYYNNNNEnePol2009EnergyGDPTunisiaYYNNNNEnePol2009EnergygrowthTanzaniaNNNNNNEnePol2009energyincometranditionaleconomicetricsYYNNNNEnePol2009fluctuationenergyPacificislandNNNNNNEnePol2010ElectricitygrowthYYNYYNEnePol2010RenewableenergygrowthOECDcountriesYYNNNNEnePol2012dynamiccaulsalityLebanonYYNNNNEnePol2013grangerECMCameroonYYYNNNEnePol2013MarkovGrangercaulsaityUSYYNYYNEnePol2014fdidynamicsimulaneousmodelYYNNNNEnePolElectricityGDPHongKongYYNNNNEnergy2006electricitygenerationgrowthIndonesiaNYNYYNEnergy2007energygrowthTaiwanYYNNNNEnergy2013energyconsumptionandHDINYNYYNEnergyEconomics2009electricityconsumptionandgrowthinAFRrevisitedYYYNNNEnergyEconomics2011EnergyandgrowthinOECDYYYYYYEnergyEconomics2013CausalitybetweenenergyandoutputinSwedenYYNNNNEnergyEconomics2013ECOWASYYYNNnEnergyEconomics2013energyasdriverofgrowthinoilexportersYYNNYNEnergyEconomics2013energy-ledgrowthhypothesistestingYYNYYNEnergyEconomics2013OECDenergy-GDPnexusNNNNNNEnergyEconomics2013PoweroutagesandgrowthinAfricaYYNYYNEnergyJournal2013Energy,economicgrowthandurbanizationin79countriesYYNNNNEnergyPolicy2006Electricityandeconomicgrowthin17AFRcountriesYYNNNNEnergyPolicy2007ElectricityandGDPinAsiaNNNNNNEnergyPolicy2010ElectricityandeconomicgrowthinLACYYYYYYEnergyPolicy2011AFRenergyconsumptionandgrowthrevisitedYYNNYNEnergyPolicy2012LiberiaEnergyconsumptionandgrowthYYNYYNEnergyPolicy2013Energyandgrowth17developedcountriesYYNNNNGlobalbus&techasso.
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