predictedcarlymilo

Planningforphysicalperformance:theindividualperspectivePlanning,periodization,prediction,andwhythefutureain'twhatitusedtobe!
JohnKielyUniversityofCentralLancashire,Lancashire,UK;UKAthletics,UK10CHAPTERCONTENTSIntroduction139Astatuscheckoncurrenttheoryandpractice:whereweareandhowwegothere140Whatisperiodization140Thehistoricalcontext141Scientificsupportforperiodizationplanning142Scientificvalidity143Summary143IsthereaplanningproblemIfso,howdoweknow144Evidenceofageneralplanningproblem144Evidenceofaspecificperformanceplanningproblem145Whyispreparationplanningsodifficult.
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146Innatepsychologicalconsiderations.
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146Biologicalcomplexity–afurthercomplication147Evidenceofbiologicalcomplexity.
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149Biologicalcomplexityandphysicalfitness149HowshouldwecopeWhatcanwedo.
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150Designandmanagementofdynamicadaptivepreparationplanningsystems.
150Paradigm151Process152Planningstructure154Prescription155WhatcanwedoSimpletoolsfordynamicadaptiveplanning156Summary156Andfinally.
158References158IntroductionTheaimofthischapteristoprovideanapprecia-tionofcriticalfactorsthatinfluencephysicalprepa-rationplanningwithinperformanceenvironments.
Surprisingly,perhaps,ameaningfulanalysisofthistopicrequiresmuchmorethansimplyareviewoftheexistingtrainingscienceliterature.
Italsogoeswithoutsayingthatitisbeyondthescopeofasinglechaptertodelveintoeverycrackandcornerofsuchanexpansivetopic.
Nevertheless,wewillcoveralotofground,muchofwhichispreviouslyunchartedwithinperformancesciencedomains,inanattempttounderstandtheoriginsandveracityofthemethodsincommonuseand,perhaps,howthingsmaybeimproved.
Theobjectiveofthephysicalpreparationplanistoguidetheperformertowardsastateofoptimalperformancereadinessataspecifiedfuturedate.
Assuch,thepreparationplanmayessentiallybecon-sideredanexerciseinstressmanagement.
AsnotedbyCanadianendocrinologistHansSelye,thepre-eminentearlyresearcheronthebiologicaleffectsofstress:'Thegoaliscertainlynottoavoidstress;stressisapartoflife.
Butinordertoexpressyourselffullyyoumustfindyouroptimumstresslevelandthenuseyouradaptationenergyatarateandinadirectionadjustedtotheinnatestructureofyourmindandbody'(Selye1956).
Insuchterms,theplanner'squestistoascertaintheoptimumstresslevelandimposetrainingstressinboththemagnitudeanddirectionthatmaximallybenefitstargetperformance.
2011,ElsevierLtd.
DOI:10.
1016/B978-0-443-06734-1.
00010-9Theprincipleofprogressiveoverloadhaslongbeenregardedasafundamentalprincipleofphysicalpreparationplanning.
FromthefableofMiloofCrete'sdailysquattingofthegrowingbullcalf(lift-ingthecalfeverydayasitgrewheaviergraduallymadehimstronger!
),tomodernundulatingloaddesigns,thecriticalchallengeofpreparationplann-inghasbeentoimposeamanageable,progressivelychallengingstressthatelicitsoptimumpositiveadaptation.
Shouldimposedtrainingstressbeinsuf-ficient,optimumadaptationwillnotoccur;alter-natively,ifstressisexcessivethensomeformofnegativeadaptationwillresult.
Errorwithinthephys-icalpreparationprocessmaybecostly.
Injury,burn-out,disillusionmentandfailuretorealizepotentialarethelikelyconsequencesofanincorrectblendingofthevariouspreparationingredients.
Accordingly,preparationplansareakeyfactorinshapingthedestiniesandfuturesuccessesofperformers,fromthecompetitivesportspersontotheaspiringballe-rina,totheadventurernegotiatingahostileterrain.
Reflectingthisimportance,plannerswithintherealmofphysicalperformancepursuitsbearasignificant,andattimesonerous,responsibility.
Eachperformancepursuitrespondstoitsownuniquesetofphysicaldemands,challengesandpecu-liaritieswithatailoredsetofplanningsolutions.
However,itisalsotruethattherearemanyaspectsofplanningcustomthatarecommonacrossthespec-trumofphysicalperformanceactivities:universallysharedphilosophies,beliefs,traditionsandpractices.
Itistheseall-pervasiveplanningcommonalities,thesecollectivelysharedaspectsofplanningpracticethatwillbescrutinizedandreviewedwithinthischapter.
Wewillshowevidencethatconventionalplanningapproachesoweasmuchtoinnateaspectsofhumanpsychologyandsocietalplanningconventionastophysiologicaltrainingscience.
Accordingly,thischap-terisasrelevanttotheperformancepsychologistseekinginsightintothebiologicalunderpinningsoftrainingplanningasitistothecoach,exercisephy-siologist,conditioningspecialistorsupportteammemberseekingtounderstandthepsychologicalforcesthathavehelpedshapeculturalpreparationplanningconventions.
Thestructureofourdiscussionprogressesthroughfourlogicallyconsecutivesteps:Astatuscheckoncurrenttheoryandpractice;whereweareandhowwegothereIsthereaplanningproblemHowdoweknowWhyispreparationplanningsodifficultWhatcanwedoAstatuscheckoncurrenttheoryandpractice:whereweareandhowwegothereThepublishedtrainingplanningliteratureemanatespredominantlyfromsportandstrengthtrainingdomainswheretheuniversallypervasiveplanningtemplateisreferredtoastheperiodizationoftraining.
Asperiodizationistheonlydocumented,formalizedtrainingplanningapproach,itisworthtakingsometimetoexplorebothitsoriginsanditsbasictenets.
Inaseriesofscholarlyworksinthe1960sand1970s,theSoviettrainingtheoristMatveyevdescribedamethodoftrainingplanningbasedupontheexperientialandscientificknowledgeofthetime.
Matveyev'slandmarkRussianpublication,Fun-damentalsofSportsTraining,publishedin1977,followedbyanEnglishtranslationin1981,becamethefirstextensiveencapsulationoftrainingplanningtheory.
Matveyev'soriginalworkwasnotwidelyreadintheWest.
Infact,thecumbersomenatureoftheEnglishtranslationmakesitquitedifficulttodiscernpreciselywhatisbeingdiscussed.
Whatconsequentlyemergedwasacollectionofvariousinterpretations,basedaroundacoupleofcoreconcepts.
WhatisperiodizationTheperiodizationapproachorganizesalltrainingintermsofseveralbasicstructuralunits.
Thesearethetrainingsession,themicrocycle,themesocycle,themacrocycle,theOlympic(orquadrennial)cycleandthemultiyearcycle(Siff2000).
Thetrainingplanisconsequentlyrepresentedasthesumofthemicro-cyclesalignedinasequentialchain.
Aspecifiednum-berofmicrocyclesformamesocycle,andinturnaspecifiednumberofmesocyclesformthemacro-cycle.
ThisstructureisdescribedinBox10.
1.
Priortokeyeventsthereiscommonlyaplannedreductionintraining,termedthetaper,intendedtoallowfordissipationofresidualfatigueandoptimizationofperformancereadiness.
So,forexample,trackandfieldathleteswillattempttopeakforOlympics,teamplayersforimportantphasesofaseason,clim-bersforspecificroutes,adventurersforexpeditionsanddancersforanauditionortour.
SECTIONTWOProvision(ofsupport)140Thecornerstonesofthetraditionalperiodizationmodelareessentiallytwofold:1.
Trainingperiodsarearrangedinapredeterminedsequentialordersothatcapacities(e.
g.
strengthoraerobiccapacity)developedinprecedingperiodswillenablethedevelopmentofcapacities(e.
g.
poweroranaerobiccapacity)infutureperiods.
2.
Thepreplannedmanipulationoftrainingvolumesandintensitiestorealizespecific,phasicconditioninggoals(e.
g.
buildstrengthinthisphase,developmuscularpowerinthenext).
Classically,thisplanningtemplatewasenvisionedasareductionintrainingvolumeaccompaniedbyanassociatedincreaseintrainingintensityasthecom-petitivepeakapproached.
Inrecentyears,however,novelandinventivederivationsoftheoriginalhigh-volume/low-intensitytolow-volume/high-intensitymodelhavebeenproposed:moreonthislater.
Periodizationprincipleshavereceivedwidespreadsupportintheliterature.
Toillustrate,considerthefollowingsampledsnippetsfromrespectedplann-ingtheorists.
Periodizationisperceivedas'alogicalandphasicmethodofmanipulatingtrainingvari-ablestoincreasethepotentialforachievingspecificperformancegoals'(Stone1996),andtoprovidetrainingplannerswitha'methodical,scientificpro-ceduretohelpathletesachievehighlevelsoftrain-ingandperformance'(Bompa1999).
Furthermore,'thedevelopmentofapreciselycontrolledtrainingprogrammeisnecessaryinordertoassurethatthemaximalsportsperformanceisattainedattherightmomentoftheseason'(Mujika1998).
Considerthephraseologyemployed:logical,preciselycontrolled,productivemanipulation,methodicalscientificpro-cedure.
Thisiswhatperiodizationoffers;arational,scientificallyjustifiedplanningmodelthatmeticu-louslyguidesandcontrolsthepreparationprocess.
Thereisanenticingintuitiveappealtosuchreasoning.
TheperceivedworthoftheperiodizationconceptwasfurtherpromotedbythecontemporarysuccessofEasternBlocathletes,(periodizationfrequentlybeingreferredtoasaSoviettrainingsecret).
Asaconse-quence,andintheabsenceofanysignificantcompet-ingtheories,periodizationenteredtheloreofphysicalperformanceculturesasthepre-eminenttrainingplanningmodelforphysicalperformance.
ItmustbenotedherethatMatveyevwascertainlynotsolelyresponsibleforformulatingtheperiodizedtrainingapproach.
Withinthegeneralsportstrainingliteraturetherehavebeenanumberofinfluential,predominantlyex-Soviet,theoristswhohavepub-lishedwidely,andfrequentlyarguedwidely,onthetopic.
Furthermore,mostperformancepursuitshaveinfluentialpractitionerswhohaveshapedphilo-sophieswithinthatdomain.
Soforexample,endur-ancerunningculturehasbeenheavilyinfluencedbyplanningmethodologiesemployedbylegendarycoa-chessuchasJackDanielsandArthurLydiard.
How-ever,regardlessoftheindividualtwistsandquirksadvocatedbyindividualpractitioners,theunderpin-ningplanningrationaleisremarkableconsistent.
WhyEssentiallybecausetheyshareacommonplanningancestor.
ThehistoricalcontextSo,whatisthiscommonheritageConsiderthesimi-laritiesbetweenperiodizationphilosophyandtheindustrialandpoliticalplanningapproachesoftheearly-to-mid20thcentury;forexample,thestylizedmechanisticplanningapproachtypifiedbytheworksofindustrialtheoristssuchasHenryGanntandFre-derickWinslowTaylor.
Inparticular,Taylor'sinflu-entialworkThePrinciplesofScientificManagementappliedstrictscientificprincipletothemanagementoftheproductionindustry.
Taylorcombinedthesci-entificknowledgeoftheday,hispioneering'timeandmotion'studiesandwhatisbesttermedcontempo-rarymanagement'sprejudicetowardsworkers('allwewantofthemistoobeytheorderswegivethem')toconstructthefirstgreatplanningparadigmofthemodernera.
Taylorbelievedthattherewasa'onebestway'toorganize,manageandplan:thatoptimalpracticesweredeterministicinnature.
Inotherwords,onceoptimalpracticeswereuncovered,theyremainedstableanddidnotchange.
Hence,oncethe'best'planisformulated,allthat'srequiredisforittobeBox10.
1PeriodizationdefinitionsMicrocycle:Shortestsequenceoftrainingandrecoverydaysbeforeunitisrepeated.
Typicallybetween4and10days.
Mesocycle:Asequenceofsimilarlyfocusedrepeatedmicrocycles.
Typically3–8weeksinduration.
Macrocycle:Theoveralltrainingperiod.
Typically6monthsto4years,dependentonthetime-frameoflong-termtrainingobjectives.
CHAPTER10Planningforphysicalperformance141repeatedlyimplemented.
Taylorthereforebelievedinthestrictsegregationofplanandprocess.
Stepone,formulatetheplan;steptwo,executetheplan.
HenryFordreadilyembracedtheprinciplesofthisclassicalperspective,totheextentthatthisapproachwasfrequentlyreferredtoasFordism.
ScientificmanagementpreceptswerefamouslyendorsedbyLeninandStalinandareconsideredbyhistorianstohavebeenaformativeinfluenceontheSovietFive-YearPlansofthe1920sand1930s.
Aconcernwiththisapproachisthatitisbasedonanumberofsimplifyingassumptions:ControlofalimitednumberoffactorscontrolsthebehaviourofthesystemProgressisdeterminedthroughmeasurementandquantificationFactorsthataremeasurableareofgreaterimportancethanthosethatarenotreadilymeasurable.
Now,theproblemwiththissetofassumptionsisthat'whatcanbemeasured'and'what'simportant'becomeconfused(seetheIntroductiontothisbook).
Peripheralfactorsthatareeasilymeasuredcanassumeill-deservedlyelevatedhierarchicalpositions.
Conversely,criticalfactorsthatarenotreadilyquan-tifiabletendtooccupyaplanningblindspotandmaybelargelyignored.
Thispresentsasignificanttheoret-icalweakness.
Forexample,considerthegrossinef-ficienciesoftheSovietFive-YearPlansandChina'sGreatLeapForwards–allthehyperboleofstrongleadership,afirmdirection,amotivatedpopulation,simple,straightforwardobjectives.
True,someobjec-tiveswereachieved,butnotatanacceptablecostconsideringthehumancollateraldamage.
IsthisanexampleofgoodplanningwithlaudablefirmresolveoragrosslyoversimplifiedinterpretationofrealityborderingoncriminalnegligenceThepurposeofthisdiversionistohighlightthefactthattheearlytrainingplannerswereheavilyinfluencedbythishistoricalplanningtemplate.
Soinessence,whentheSoviettrainingtheoristssoughttoconstructtrainingplanningtemplates,theycom-binedtheculturalplanningblueprint(asperTaylorandthephilosophyoftheFive-YearPlans)withtrainingrecordsandcontemporaryscientificknowl-edge.
Forexample,thehistoricallyinfluentialMat-veyevcollatedtrainingdatafromthe1950sand1960s,inswimming,runningandweightlifting,andappliedtheserecordstothepervasivemechanis-ticplanningblueprint.
Thustheoriginalperiodizedconceptwasareincarnationoftheindustrialplanningtemplate,withthesamestrengths,weaknessesandassumptions.
Inindustrialandpoliticalplanningdomains,theinefficienciesofsuchregimentedapproachesgradu-allybecameapparent.
Today,theFordMotorCom-panynolongermanufacturescarsinthestrictlysegregatedproduction-linefashionofHenryFord'sday.
Similarly,moderngovernmentalagenciesrealizethedangersthatassumptionsandgeneralizationspres-enttoprojectplanning.
Inareaswheremanyfactorsinteracttoinfluenceoutcome,planningapproachesthatignorebothminorandunmeasurablesystemcomponentsareexcessivelyvulnerabletoerror.
Con-sequentlymoderngovernments,policymakersandindustries,nolongeremployrigid'reduceandresolve'planningsolutions.
Unfortunately,physicaltrainingprinciplesmaynothavebeenexaminedwithequalrigourand,inconsequence,maynothaveevolvedtoquitethesameextent.
ScientificsupportforperiodizationplanningThenextstepinourinvestigationistobrieflyreviewtheempiricalevidencesupportingtheperiodizationapproach.
Again,thepublishedpeer-reviewedliter-atureemanatesexclusivelyfromsportingandstrength-trainingdomains.
Stoneandcolleagues(1999a)reviewed15studiesofmesocyclelength(7–24weeks).
13ofthesestud-iessuggestedthatperiodizedmodelsproducedstatisticallysuperiorresultsinperformancemeasureswhencomparedwithmodelsthatconsistedsolelyoflinearincreasesintrainingloads.
However,inthemajorityofthesestudies(11),therewerenocontrolsinplacetoequalizemeasuresoftotalworkperformed.
Consequently,intergroupdifferencesinderivedtrainingbenefitsmayhaveresultedfromthedifferingtrainingvolumesperformed.
Theauthorsconcludedthatthereviewstronglysuggestedthataperiodizedapproach,evenoverashortterm,producedsuperiorresults,especiallyinpreviouslytrainedsubjects,comparedwithconstant-repetitionprogrammes(Stoneetal1999b).
Inasimilarreview,Graham(2002)cites10stud-iesdemonstratingthatperiodizedstrength-trainingmodelsprovidedstatisticallysignificantimprove-mentsinoneormoreofavarietyofperformancestandardswhencomparedwithlinearnon-periodizedmodels(Graham2002).
Amorerecentmeta-analysiscomparingtheeffectivenessofperiodizedSECTIONTWOProvision(ofsupport)142andnon-periodizedstrengthtrainingprogrammesconcludedthatperiodizedtrainingstructuresweremoreeffectiveforbothmalesandfemales,forindivi-dualsofvaryingtrainingbackgroundsandforarangeofagegroups(Rhea&Alderman2004).
Inoneofthefewstudiesthatdidnotsupporttheefficacyofperiodizedtrainingregimes,Bakeretal(1994)foundnodifferencesbetweenanundulatingperiodizedgroupandanon-periodizedcontrolgroupwhenvolumeandrelativeintensitywereequatedoverashort-termtrainingperiod(Bakeretal1994).
Simi-larly,DeBelisoandcolleagues(2005)concludedthatafixedrepetitionstrengthtrainingprotocolwasaseffectiveinpromotingstrengthgainsasaperiodizedprogrammeinelderly,untrainedsubjects.
Inararetrainingstudyofextendedduration(9months),Kraemerandcolleagues(2003)comparedtheeffectivenessoftwoequitablevolumetrainingschemes,demonstratingthatthestrengthandmotorperformanceoffemalecollegiatetennisplayerswaspreferentiallyenhancedintheperiodized,ascomparedtothenon-periodized,traininggroup.
Theauthorscon-cludedthatthesuperiorityoftheperiodizedtrainingprotocolwasaconsequenceof(1)thegreatervaria-tionoftrainingvariablesand(2)theperiodicexposuretohighertrainingloadsaffordedbytheperiodizednatureoftheprogramme(Kraemeretal2003).
Inrecentyearspublishedarticleshavesuggestednovelandcreativederivationsoftheoriginalperiod-izedscheme(e.
g.
non-linear(Brown2001,Rheaetal2002),conjugatesequence(Plisk&Stone2003),block(Issurin2008),andfractal(Brown&Green-wood2005)).
Furthermore,PliskandStone(2003)haveinventivelyequatedpreparationplanningtoconceptsofgametheoryandadvocatedtheneedforplannedunpredictabilitywithinthetrainingprogramme(Plisk&Stone2003).
Insummary,thevastbulkofthepublishedlitera-tureconcludesthatperiodizedismoreeffectivethannon-periodizedtraining.
Therehavebeenstudiesthathavefailedtodemonstrateasignificantbenefitofper-iodizedovernon-periodizedstructures.
However,theseinvestigationstypicallyhavetwodesigncharac-teristicsincommon:first,subjectgroupsoflowinitialfitnessandsecond,ashorttime-frameofinvestigation.
ScientificvalidityBasedonthereviewedevidenceitseemsreasonabletoconcludethatperiodizedplanningmodelsareeffective.
However,thereisaninterestingpointtonotehere.
Studiessuchasthesearecommonlypre-sentedasevidenceoftheefficacyofperiodizationprinciples.
However,thismaybeasomewhatover-elaborateconclusion.
Whatisstronglysupportedisthattrainingvariationisabeneficialfactorinprogrammedesign,butthequestionofhowthisvari-ationisbestachievedremainslargelyunexplored.
Thisisworthnoting,astheterm'scienceofperi-odization'isonethatfrequentlycropsupinthesportsscienceandcoachingliterature.
Unfortu-nately,theuseofsuchlanguageportraysanillusionofscientificpropriety.
Itgeneratesasensethatmoreisknownabouttrainingplanningthanisactuallythecase;inshort,thatperiodizationprincipleshavebeenempiricallyvalidated.
Onthebasisoftheevidencesofar,theonlyvalidconclusiontobedrawnisthatvaria-tionisanessentialcomponentofgoodtrainingdesign.
Afurtherpointtonoteisthegroup-basednatureofboththetrainingrecordsuponwhichperiodizationisjustifiedandtheempiricalinvestigationsofferedasproof.
Thesegroup-basedconclusionsdiscountthepossibilitythatanindividual'sresponsetoanygiventraininginputand/ormethodoforganizationmayvarywidelyfromtheaveragegroupresponse.
Aswewillseelater,thisassumptioniscalledintoquestionbycontemporaryevidence.
Otherobviousbutoftenbynecessityunavoidablelimitationsofsuchstudiesaretheuseofsubelitepopulationsassubjectcohorts,thehabituallyshortdurationoftrainingstudiesandthelackofsensitivefitnessassessmentmeasures.
Afinalpointbeforemovingon:theterm'periodi-zation'hasbecomesoubiquitousinsportingparlancethatmanynowcommonlyneglectitsoriginalmean-ingandusetheterminterchangeablywith'trainingplan'.
Thusthetermhasthepotentialtoconjureupdifferentinterpretationsfordifferentpractitioners.
Thischapterwillconsidertheterminitsorigi-nallyintendedcontextasrepresentingtrainingschemesthataresegregatedintosequential,distinct,pre-plannedtrainingblocks.
SummarySobeforeweproceed,aquicksummaryofthekeypointssofar:PreparationplanningthroughoutthephysicalperformancedomainshasbeenheavilyinfluencedbythehistoricalculturallypervasiveplanningparadigmTheplanningprocessisessentiallyanexerciseinstressmanagementCHAPTER10Planningforphysicalperformance143Thenatureoftheconductedperiodizationstudiesmeansthatcurrenttrainingphilosophiesforindividualsareheavilybasedonaveraged,group-basedempiricaldataRegularvariationoftrainingparametersoverthecourseofthetrainingprogrammeisbroadlysupportedasaprerequisiteofgoodplanningDifferingplanningstructureshavebeenproposedasmeanstoprovidingappropriatetrainingvariation.
However,thereislittleempiricalevidencetoaiddiscriminationbetweentheworthofthevariousschemesTheprincipleofgradualprogressiveoverloadappearsaneminentlysensibleguideline.
However,theissueofwhetherornotprogresscanbeadequatelymodulatedsolelythroughmanipulationoftraining'numbers'(sets,reps,intensities,etc.
)willbeaddressedlaterinthischapter.
IsthereaplanningproblemIfso,howdoweknowThatpreparationplanningmodelsareinneedofrefinementmaybeacontentiousassertion.
Astan-darddefenceagainstsuchanaccusationistopointtocelebratedperformerswhohavereachedtheheightsoftheirprofessionusingconventional,peri-odizedpreparationplans.
Suchreasoningisaveryunderstandablehumanreactiontovisiblefacts.
However,despiteitsinstinctiveappeal,suchratio-naledoesunquestionablypresentadamaginglogicalinconsistency.
Employingisolatedexamplestosup-portanystance,asisfrequentlythenorminperfor-manceenvironments,isaone-sidedandultimatelyirrationalargument.
Avalidassessmentoftheworthofanytrainingschemenecessitatesthatboththescheme'ssuccessesand'failures'befactoredintoanalysis.
Thispeculiaraspectofhumancognitionispervasivethroughoutdomainsandhasbeenexten-sivelydocumentedelsewhere(e.
g.
Taleb2005).
Accordingly,greatcaremustbetakentoavoidthetemptationtoemployisolatedindividualexamplestoconfirmtheworthofanyplanningschemewhileneglectingtoconsiderallthosewhoadheredtoasimilarplanningframeworkyet'failed'.
Thataperformerachievedprevioussuccessdoesnotprovideevidencethatthiswasthemostefficientpreparationscheme.
HowcanweknowwhetherornotfollowingadifferentplanwouldhaveledtostillgreaterachievementTolessinjuryorillnessToalonger,healthier,moreproductivecareerOurinabilitytoruncounterfactual,alternativerealitystrategiesthatoriginatefromthesamestartingpointmeansthatwecannotanswersuchquestions.
Accordingly,intheabsenceofanydirect'proof'ofpreparationplanningproblems,furtherexplorationofthetopicrequiresconsiderationoftwodistinctlinesofindirectevidence.
Toshedlightontheques-tionofwhetherornottrainingplanningconceptionswouldbenefitfromrefinement,let'sconsidertheproblemfromtwoperspectives.
First,wewillbrieflyreviewevidenceofplanningproblemsinotherdomainsofhumanendeavourandsecond,wewillconsidercircumstantialevidenceemergingfromwithinphysicalperformanceenvironments.
EvidenceofageneralplanningproblemThepervasivenessofhumanplanninginadequacieshasbeenextensivelydocumented.
High-profileexamplesincludetheconstructionofDenverInter-nationalAirport(16monthslate,costs300%greaterthanforecast),thedevelopmentoftheEurofighterjet(5yearslate,$25billionabovepredictedcost),theScottishParliamentbuilding(3yearslate,withprojectedcostof35millionescalatingto414mil-lion)and,mostfamously,theSydneyOperaHouse(ascaled-downversioncompleted10yearslate,withestimatedcostsof$7millioneventuallyamountingto$102million).
Whatisstartlingaboutsuchexam-plesisthattheseprojectswerenotenteredintolightlyandwerenotplannedbyinexperiencedamateursshortonresources,yetallstillflounderedspectacularly.
Militaryplannershaveoftenbeenthebuttofridicule,yetplanninginthisdomainhastypicallybeenconductedbyintelligent,highlytrained,highlyexperiencedgroupsofindividuals.
However,factualevidenceindicatesthat,despitehighlevelsofresource,planninginsuchenviron-mentshabituallygoesawry.
Exemptingcombatexamples,considerthattheUSGeneralAccountingOfficeestimatedthatonly1%ofmajormilitaryhigh-techpurchasesweredeliveredonbudgetandon-time(Buehleretal2002).
Asfarbackasthe1950s,psychologistPaulMeehlinvestigateddiscrepanciesbetweenexpertclinicalpredictionandpredictionbasedsolelyonsimplemathematicalformulas.
Hisresearchrevealedthatsuchbasicmethodsofpredictionalmostalwaysout-performedthoseofclinicians.
Meehl'sconclusion,SECTIONTWOProvision(ofsupport)144thatstatisticalpredictionconsistentlyoutperformsclinicaljudgment,hasstoodupextremelywellforoverhalfacentury.
Surprisingly,Meehlalsodiscov-eredasharpdiscrepancybetweenclinicians'ratingoftheirpersonalperformanceandtheiractualrecordofsuccess(Meehl1954).
Subsequentevidenceofplanningandpredictiveinadequacieshasbeengatheredacrossaspectrumofdomains,fromlarge-scalegovernmentalprojectstopersonaltaskssuchascompletingChristmasshop-ping.
Forexample,whenaskedtopredicthowlongitwouldtaketofinishtheirhonoursthesis'ifevery-thingwentaspoorlyasitpossiblycould',psychologystudentssignificantlyunderestimatedcompletiontime(Buehleretal1994).
Buehlerandcolleagues(2002,p.
252),commentingonthisandotherwork,wrote:'Evenwhenaskedtomakeahighlyconservativeforecast,apredictionthattheyfeltvirtuallycertainthattheywouldfulfil,students'confidenceintheirtimeestimatesfarexceededtheiraccomplishments'.
Insimilarfashion,Newby-Clarkandcolleagues(2000)foundthataskingsubjectsforpredictionsbasedonrealistic'bestguess'scenariosandfortheirhoped-for'bestcase'scenarios,producedindistin-guishableresults.
Thisneatlyillustratesthatwhenpeoplethinkoftheir'mostprobable'outcometheytypicallyenvisioneverythinggoingexactlytoplan!
Ironicallyhowever,theempiricalevidencesuggeststhatwhatactuallyhappensistypicallyworsethanthepredicted'worstcase'scenario.
Infact,thereisamismatchbetweenourillusionofcapabilityinplanningtasksandtherealityofourdocumentedperformance.
Thisiscommonlytermedtheplanningfallacy(Newby-Kahneman&Tversky1979)andispervasiveacrossdomainsandcultures.
Inthemostextensiveexaminationofhumanpre-dictiveabilitytodate,PhilipTetlockoftheUniversityofCaliforniaatBerkeleycollatedthepreciselyspe-cifiedpredictionsofalargecohortofexperts.
This20-yearstudyinvolved284professionals,allofwhommadetheirlivelihoodthroughthepredictionandanalysisofpoliticalandeconomictrends.
Allexpertsweregivenregularlistsofquestionsandaskedtofore-castfutureoutcomes.
Allhadaccesstoextensiveinformation,hadextensiveexperience,hadhighlevelsofrelevanteducationandwereconsideredlea-dersintheirrespectivefields.
Yet,whentheresultsofthemanythousandsofpredictionswerecollated,itbecameblatantlyobviousthattheirabilitytopredictwasuniversallypoor.
Nosingleexpertcameremotelyclosetobeingconsistentlyright.
Infact,onlyincer-taincaseswereexpertpredictionsbetterthanwhatresearcherstermed'dart-throwingchimps'–inotherwords,randomlygeneratedguesses(Tetlock2005).
Finally,inclosingthisquickreviewitisworthnot-ingthatresearchershavepreviouslyconcludedthatitisimpossibletofindanydomaininwhichhumanscanoutperformevencrudepredictivealgorithms,farlesssophisticatedones(Grove&Meehl1996).
EvidenceofaspecificperformanceplanningproblemAlineofcircumstantialevidencethatissuggestiveofpotentialplanninginadequacieswithinperformanceenvironmentsrelatestothewidespreadproliferationofthevarious'stressmismanagement'syndromesthatplagueperformancedomains.
Overuseinjuryhasbeendefinedasanimbalancecausedbyoverintensivetrainingandinadequaterecoveryleadingtoabreakdownintissuereparativemechanisms(Cosca&Navazio2007).
Overusehasbeenidentifiedasamajormechanismforinjuryinawidediversityofphysicalpursuits,e.
g.
multisportathletes(Villavicencioetal2007),cross-countryskiing(Smithetal1996),eliteOlympicweightlifting(Calhoon&Fry1999),professionalsoccer(Waldenetal2007),variousdancedisciplines(Bronneretal2003,BrownandMicheli2004,Garrick&Lewis2001,Quirk1994,Shan2005)andprofessionalbal-let(Nilssonetal2001).
SomeexamplesareshowninBox10.
2.
Furtherevidenceofpotentialprogrammingdeficienciescomesfromthevariouslylabelledman-ifestationsofchronicimbalancebetweenpsycho-physiologicalstressandrecovery,suchasstaleness,Box10.
2SamplefindingsillustratingtheextentofoverusewithinphysicalperformancecontextsOveruseaccountedfor37%ofallinjuriestoSwedishprofessionalfootballteams(Waldenetal2007)Halfofover500elitejuniorfigureskaterssurveyedreportedrepeatoccurrenceofoverusesyndrome(Dubravcic-Simunjaketal2003)64%ofprofessionaldancersneedtostopperformingforextendedperiodsduetooverusesyndrome(Shan2005)InaretrospectivestudyofaSwedishprofessionalballetcompany,mostinjurieswereconsideredoveruseinnature,and95%ofdancerssufferedinjuriesoverthe5-yearstudyperiod(Nilssonetal2001)CHAPTER10Planningforphysicalperformance145burnoutandovertrainingsyndrome.
Previously,burn-outhasbeendescribedasa'psychologicalsyndrome'(Maslach&Jackson1984)butitmaybemoreappro-priatelyconsideredaclinicallycomplexstress-imbal-anceconditionofindeterminatecausewitharangeofphysical,psychologicalandsocialsymptoms.
Over-trainingsyndromehasbeendefinedaslong-lastingper-formanceincompetenceduetoanimbalanceoftrainingload,competition,non-trainingstressorsandrecovery(Smith2003).
Inballet,manifestationsofburnoutandovertrainingphenomenahavebeendescribed(Koute-dakisetal1999,Koutedakis&Jamurtas2004),andstaleness,burnoutandovertrainingsyndromehaveallbeenidentifiedaswidespreadproblemsamongath-letesandsportspeople(e.
g.
Jungeetal2002).
Theproliferationofstressmismanagementsyn-dromesthroughoutthephysicalperformancedomainsiscertainly,inandofitself,suggestiveofculturalplanninginefficiencies.
Thecounterpointtothisargu-mentisthat,inhigh-performancesettings,whenbothbodyandmindareconsistentlybeingstretchedtotheirabsolutelimits,someformofphysicalorpsycho-physiologicaldamageisinevitable.
Thereissurelyanelementoftruthinthisperspective:aninevitablebyproductofnegotiatingfinemarginsoferroristhat,occasionally,thresholdswillbeexceeded.
However,stressmismanagementneednotbeanin-evitablebyproductofhigh-performancepreparation.
Thisiseffectivelyillustratedbyanumberofstudiesthathavesuccessfullyreducedtheincidenceof'stresssyndromes'throughtheintroductionofsimple,easy-to-implementmanagementstrategies(Box10.
3).
WhyispreparationplanningsodifficultTwostrandsofevidencehavebeenpresentedthusfar,servingtoquestionourcurrentplanningcapabil-itiesandparadigms:specifically,thecleardemon-strationsoftheplanningfallacythathaveemergedfromstudieswithinsocial,behaviouralandcognitivepsychology,andalsotheprovocativecircumstantialevidenceofaproliferationofstressmismanage-mentsyndromesemergingfromwithinperformanceenvironments.
Inordertoevolvestrategiestoredresstheobservedplanningdeficiencies,wewillfirstneedtounravelthepsychologicalandbiologicalconsiderationsthatinter-acttopredisposetoplanningerror.
InnatepsychologicalconsiderationsAnextensiveliteraturehasprovidedillustrationsdemonstratingthat,asaspecies,weuniversallystrug-glewithplanningandpredictiontasks(Fig.
10.
1).
Paradoxically,inboththeseminalworkofMeehlandtheextensivestudyofTetlock,expertswiththelowestratesofforecastingaccuracyweresimul-taneouslytheveryoneswiththegreatestconfidenceintheirpredictiveabilities.
Itwouldappearthatthismisplacedoverconfidencemadeexpertsincreasinglyvulnerabletodecision-makingerror.
Incontrast,theirlessdogmaticpeers,whoresistedthetempta-tiontoemploythecognitiveshortcutofpredictingthefutureexclusivelyonthebasisofpastobserva-tionsandwhorefinedtheirperspectivesagainsttheemergingevidence,consistentlyoutperformedtheirmoreconfidentpeers.
Thekeyfactorsdrivingsuchbehavioursareinnate,instinctiveego-protectivemechanisms,whichhabituallyrationalizeoursuccessesasresultingfromoursuperiorintuitionbutfailureasbeingconse-quenttoeventsoutsideourcontrol(formoreonthis,seeTetlock2005).
Adirectimplicationofthisisthatwecommonlyfailtoupdateourbeliefsevenwhenconfrontedwithcontradictoryevidence.
Animmediateimplicationofsuchreflexivetendenciesisthatwefrequentlyfailtolearnfrompastmistakes,becausewefailtoself-critiquedispassionatelyandinanunbiasedmanner.
Aspreviouslynoted,'whenfacedwiththechoicebetweenchangingone'smindandprov-ingthatthereisnoneedtodoso,almosteveryoneBox10.
3ImpactofprogrammemanagementinterventionsinreducingincidenceofoveruseinjuriesCasemanagementandanearlyinterventionprogrammereducedtheannualnumberofcompensationcasesfrom81%to17%,anddecreasedthenumberofdayslostby60%,overa3yeartimespaninaprofessionalcorpsdeballet(Bronneretal2003)Asignificantdecrease(21%)insportsinjuryincidencefollowinganinterventionbasedsolelyoneducationandincreasedsupervision(Jungeetal2002)Monitoringofratingsofperceivedexertionhaspreviouslybeenassociatedwithavoidanceofunder-recovery,e.
g.
inrowing(Maestuetal2005)andsprinting(Suzukietal2006)SECTIONTWOProvision(ofsupport)146getsbusyontheproof'(Gilovich&Griffin2002).
However,researchhasalsorevealedthatsuchirra-tionaltendenciescanbeoverriddenandconsequentdecision-makingabilityenhanced.
Forexample,chessmastersactivelyseektofalsifypotentialnext-movedecisions.
Incontrast,experiencednovicesprimarilyseekevidencethatconfirmstheperceivedworthoftheirnextmove(Cowley&Byrne2004).
Inotherwords,masterssoughttoobjectivelypickholesintheirowntheories,whereasnovicessoughtevidencethatpositivelysupportedtheirinitialopinions.
Withintheliterature,ourplanningandpredictionlimitationsarecommonlyattributedtoanumberofinnatepsychologicaltraits.
Tetlock(2005)hasdescribedfourkeycontributingfactors:AstrongpreferenceforsimplicityAnaversiontoambiguityanddissonanceAdeep-rootedneedtobelieveweliveinanorderlyworldAlackofappreciationofthelawsofchance.
Thesecognitivecharacteristicsaremostcommonlyexplainedasaconsequenceofourevolutionarypast.
Simple,rule-baseddecisionmakingishighlyfunc-tionalinenvironmentswheresurvivalisdependentonquick,instinctive,fight-or-flight-basedchoices.
Accordingly,thereisadiscrepancybetweenthenatureoftheproblemsthatnowconfrontusandthosethatevolutionequippedustosolve.
Ourperformancesufferswhenfacedwithconvoluted,multifactorialproblems,aswearefundamentallydeterministicthinkerswithademonstratedaversiontoprobabilisticreasoning(Tetlock2005).
Thesig-nificanceofthisproblemisillustratedbyareportbytheUSInstituteofMedicineestimatingthatbetween44000and94000patientsdieeachyearinUShospitalsasaresultofmedicalerror(InstituteofMedicineoftheNationalAcademies1999),andmajorcausesoferrorinmedicaldecisionmakinghavebeenidentifiedasphysicians'lackofcompe-tencyinprobabilisticreasoningandafaultyconcep-tualknowledge(Patel2000).
Accordinglyitwouldseemthat,aspreviouslynoted,'ourbrainsaremadeforfitness,notfortruth'(Pinker1997).
Weactivelyseekoutsimple,straightforwardanswers.
Suchahabitualpreferenceforsimplistic,rule-baseddeci-sion-makingisapredispositionthatisespeciallyexposedwhenweattempttoplaninunpredictable,complexenvironments.
Biologicalcomplexity–afurthercomplicationAnessentialrequirementforanyefficientplannerisaconceptualmodelthatisoptimallyreflectiveofthetruenatureofthesystemunderconsideration.
Putmoreplainly,inordertoplaneffectivelytheremustbeanincisiveunderstandingofhowthesys-temworks.
Iftheconceptualmodel,orparadigm,forunderstandingthesystemisflawed,thenallsubsequentdecisionmakingwillbecompromised.
Inrelationtoperformanceplanning,themostobvi-oussystemtoconsideristheperformer'sbiologicalsystem.
Thepredominanthistoricalmodelforconcep-tualizingbiologicalfunctionhasbeenthemecha-nisticparadigm.
Thismechanisticconceptionof'humanbeingasmachine'iswidespreadanddeeplyFig.
10.
1KristanBromleyatthetopofaskeletonbobsleighrun–alwaysa'hardtopredict'challenge.
WiththankstoKristanBronley.
CHAPTER10Planningforphysicalperformance147ingrainedinourconceptualsystem(Karaliute2007).
Thisclassicalperspectivedepictsthebiologicalsys-temasanalogoustoawellmaintained,welloiledmachine.
Accordingly,thecovertconceptuallensthroughwhichwehavehistoricallyrationalizedhumanfunctioningenvisionsourbiologyasahighlyintricate,advancedbutultimatelymechanicalsystem.
Ifthebiologicalsystemisindeedcharacterizedbymachine-likefunctioning,thenenhancingperfor-manceisarelativelystraightforwardprocess.
Mechanicalsystemsarepredictable,withstablefunctioninginwhichaknowninterventionresultsinapredictableoutput.
Whendealingwithmecha-nisticsystemswecanuselinear,deterministiclogictoderiveappropriateplans.
Insuchcircumstances,periodizedtrainingschemeswouldbeeminentlysensible.
Frustratingly,however,realityintervenestospoiltheparty.
Oneofthegreattectonicshiftsinscienceoverthecourseofthe20thcenturywastherealizationoftheexplanatoryinadequaciesofthemechanisticworld-viewwhenappliedtoreal-worldsystems.
Thisshiftwasnotsudden,norcanitbeaccreditedtotheworkofanysinglepersonorscientificdis-cipline.
Inaslow,meanderingjourneythatstartedinphysicsandmathematicsinthelate19thcenturyandprogressedthroughvariousscientificdisci-plines,mechanisticconceptshavegraduallybeensupplantedbyamorereflectiveparadigmthathasonlyrecentlybeenembracedbybiologistsandthemedicalprofessions.
Theterm'complexadaptivesystem'wascoinedtodescribesystemsthatarecomposedofmultiplecomponentsubsystemsthatinteractinnon-linear,non-periodicandnon-proportionalways.
Thesesys-temsareadaptive,astheyundergotemporaryorper-manentmodificationinresponsetoimposedstress.
Theglobalbehaviourofsuchsystemsisimpossibletotrackintermsofitselementsandso,unlikethesim-ple'billiard-ball'systemsofclassicalmechanics,complexadaptivesystemscannotbedecomposedtoaseriesofproportionatecauseandeffectreac-tions.
Chaoticpropertiesareafundamentalcompo-nentofcomplexsystems.
Manyhaveencounteredchaostheoryprimarilythroughthebutterflymeta-phor.
However,chaoticsystemsarenotnecessarilychaotic,andthebutterflymetaphorisnotverygoodatexplaininghowsuchsystemswork.
Muchofthetime,chaoticsystemsremainrelativelystable.
Infact,itisahallmarkofsuchsystemsthatimposedshocksreverberatethroughthecomponentsub-systemsandaredissipatedthroughoutthenetwork.
Accordingly,suchsystemsaretypicallyrobusttoperturbation.
However,thisisnotthecaseifthesystemissuf-ficientlydelicatelypoised.
Inthiscondition,asingleminuteoccurrencemaybeallthatisnecessarytopushthesystempastitstippingpoint.
Alternatively,theripplesofanumberofseeminglyinnocuousoccurrencesmayinteract,beingexponentiallyampli-fiedastheypropagatethroughthesystem,eventuallyresultinginlarge-scaledisruption.
Thereisabifurca-tion(adramaticandsuddenchange)inbehaviour.
Minorepisodescanrapidlymushroomintomajorevents.
Aswehavenomeansofadequatelyassessingcurrentstatesofthecomponentsubsystems,ofknowingwhicharethemostimportantsubsystemsorofunravellingthedynamicrelationshipsbetweenthesubsystems,adefiningfeatureofcomplexadap-tivesystemsisthatfuturebehaviourisimpossibletopredict.
Considerweathersystems:despitethemeticu-lousstudyofmeteorology,despiteallthetechnicaladvancesandeffortsofscientistsandspaceagencies,wewillneverhavecompletepredictivecapability.
WhyBecausewecannotmeasuretoafineenoughscale,becauseinfinitesimallysmallmeasurementerrorscanrapidlyupsetanypredictionandbecausethevariouscomponentelementsofweathersystemsinteractincomplexandunpredictableways.
Thecurrentglobalcreditcrunchoffersanexcel-lentexampleofhowthebehaviourofaseeminglystable,'tamed',complexadaptivesystemcanrapidlyandunpredictablydivergefromtheexpectedpath.
Completecontrolofsuchsystemsisultimatelyillusory.
Wecaninfluence,wemaynudgeinagivendirectionbutwecannotcompletelyregulateandhenceneedtobeawareofthepitfallsandavoidcomplacency.
Oneofthehiddenimplicationsofthemechanis-ticperspectiveofbiologyisthatappropriateplans,andappropriatesolutionscanbeadvance-plannedthroughaprocessofdeductionandprediction.
However,inthelightofcomplexitytheoryitisevi-dentthatthiswouldrequireanextensiveknowledgeoftheinnumerablecausalconnectionsthatexistbetweenthecomponentsofthesystem,aknowl-edgethatclearlydoesnotexist(vanRegenmortel2007).
SECTIONTWOProvision(ofsupport)148EvidenceofbiologicalcomplexityAdefiningcharacteristicofperiodizedtrainingplansistheimplicitassumptionofstable,cyclic,under-pinningbiologicalprocesses.
Forexample,considertherationalesupportingthelogicoffixeddurationplanningblocks.
Themostprevalentscheme,asdocu-mentedinthepublishedliterature,organizestrainingprogrammesintophasesof4weeks'duration.
Plisk&Stone(2003)citetherationalesofthreenotedperiodizationtheoristsinadvocating4-weekcycles:Tocorrespondwithnaturalmonthlybiocycles(Matveyev1972)Tocorrespondwiththehalf-timeoftrainingeffectinvolution(Viru1995)Inordertosuper-imposedelayedtrainingeffects(Zatsiorsky1995).
Suchrationalewaseminentlylogicalgiventhelevelofinsightprovidedbythemechanisticmodelofbiologicalfunctioning.
However,ifweconsiderthisrationalethroughthelensofthecomplexityparadigm,averydifferentpictureemerges.
Itiswithoutquestionthatdistinctbutmutuallyinteractivebiologicalrhythmsunderpinallaspectsofthehumanlifecycle,healthandresponsetoappliedtrainingstress.
Consider:complexbodilyrhythmsareubiquitousinalllivingorganisms(Glass2001).
Organismshaveevolvedtimingmechanisms,commonlyreferredtoasbiologicalclocks,thatassimilatecuesfrommulti-plesourcesandmodulateoscillationsaccordingly(Rensingetal2001).
Theserhythmsinteractwitheachotherthroughmyriadfeedbackandfeedforwardlinkageswhilealsobeingsubjectedtotheinfluenceofenvironmentallygeneratedcuesandperturbations.
Itistheseeminglyorderlybehaviouremergingfromthismultiplicityofinteractive,fluctuatingcon-straintsthatcharacterizesthefunctioningofcomplexbiologicalsystems(forfurtherreview,seeFoster&Kreitzman2005).
Theinteractiveeffectsofvariousformsofstresshavebeenshowntoaffectbiologicalfunctioning.
Forexample,emotionalstresshasbeenobservedtodownregulatetheimmunesystem(Aubert2008,Rogersetal2001,Venkatramanetal2000).
Lonelinesshasbeenestablishedasapredictorofmor-bidityandmortality(Cacioppoetal2002).
Sleepdis-ruptionhasbeenshowntohavesubstantialnegativeeffectsonarangeofcapacitiessuchasmotorandcognitiveperformance,mood,metabolism,hormonalhealth,andimmunefunction(Ferrara&DeGennaro2001,Himashreeetal2002).
Academicstresshasbeennotedtohaveanegativeeffectonthemoodscoresofswimmers(Carletal2001).
Moodhasbeenshowntoaffectthetrainingperformanceofcross-countryskiers(Mahoodetal2001)andpersonal,economical,psychologicalandphysicalfactorshavebeenproposedtoincreasethestresslevelsofballetdancers,resultinginelevatedinjuryrisk(Kelman2000).
Asafurtherillustration,considerthevarietyoffactorsthathavebeendemonstratedtoaffectthereleasecharacteristicsoftheandrogenichor-monetestosterone.
Observedpatternsoftestoster-onereleasehavebeenvariouslynotedtomodulateinmalesinresponsetothetimeofday(Bird&Tarpenning2004),week,monthandfemalepart-ner'scycle(Hogg2002),inresponsetocyclesoflightanddark(Luboshitzky2000,Takagi1986),inaccor-dancetoratingsofworksatisfaction(Axelssonetal2003),inresponsetomotivationalandassertivenesslevels(Schultheissetal1999,Schultheiss&Rohde2002),andinresponsetotrainingstress(Filaireetal2003).
Insummary,thebodyofevidencedemonstratingthemutualinter-connectivityandinter-activitybetweenpsychophysiology,cognition,emotion,brainfunction,andgeneticpredispositioncontinuestogrow,emphasizingboththeextentofbiologicalcom-plexityandthelimitationsofmechanisticconceptualframeworks(forreview,seeLovallo2005).
BiologicalcomplexityandphysicalfitnessPhysicalfitnessisinfluencedbyavarietyofenviron-mentalandgeneticfactors.
ConsidertheevidenceemergingfromtheHEIRITAGEFamilyStudies,alinkedseriesofinvestigationsfocusedonuncoveringthegeneticunderpinningsofindividualresponsestoexerciseanddiseaseriskfactors.
Studieshavedemonstratedaconsiderablehetero-geneityintheresponsivenessofindividualstoregularphysicalexercise(Bouchardetal2000).
Forexam-ple,traininginducedchangestoVO2maxwereestab-lishedtovarywidelyamongsubjectsinresponsetoidenticaltrainingparameters.
High,mediumandlowrespondersexistedamongallagegroups,inbothsexes,amongblacksandwhitesandatalllevelsofCHAPTER10Planningforphysicalperformance149initialfitness.
WhenVO2maxwasadjustedforage,sex,bodymassandcomposition;geneticfactorsexplainedabout40%ofinterindividualvariation.
TheaverageincreaseinVO2maxwas19%butitwastherangeoftrainingresponsesthatwastrulysurprising.
5%ofsubjectshadnochangeinVO2maxconsequenttotrainingand5%hadanincreaseofover50%(Skinneretal2001).
Ofcourse,itmustbenotedthatsubjectswerepreviouslyuntrained.
Nevertheless,suchextremesofoutcomeinresponsetoidenticaltrainingparametersservetoillustratetheuncertaintyassociatedwithanyattemptstofore-casttheeffectsofprescribedtraininginterventions.
Elsewhere,aninvestigationemployingacohortofprofessionalrugbyplayersestablishedthatpre-scribedresistancetrainingsessionsproducedarangeofindividually-specifichormonalresponsesinsub-jects(Beavanetal2008a).
Individualswithbroadlysimilartrainingbackgroundsrespondeddifferentlytothesametrainingstress.
Individualplayerswerehighresponderstoacertainsessionbutnottoanother,whileteam-matesdisplayedtheopposingpattern.
Inanalignedstudy,thehormonalresponsesofplayerstofourdifferingresistancetrainingsessionsweredetermined.
Then,ina3-weekcrossoverdesign,playersalternatedbetweenthesessionsthatelicitedtheirmaximumandtheirminimumtestosteroneresponses.
Allplayersdemonstratedsignificantgainsinstrengthafter3weeksoftrainingusingtheprotocolthatelicitedtheirmaximumtestosteroneresponse.
Incontrast,whensubjectsperformedtheprotocolthatoccasionedtheirminimumresponse,eithernochangeorasignificantdeclineintestedstrengthmeasuresresulted(Beavanetal2008b).
Whenweconsidertheseconvergingstreamsofevidence,itseemslogicaltoconcludethatadapta-tion,andconsequentretention,ratesofdifferingaspectsoffitnessarehighlyindividual-specific.
Takenasawhole,thepresentedevidencesuggeststhatanytrainingloadinginteractswithintrinsicandenvironmentalfactorstooccasionauniqueadaptiveresponse.
Thekeymutuallyinteractivefactorsdictatingthisresponseare:TrainingloadingparametersGeneticinheritanceTransientstatesofbiologicalfunctioningHabituationtopreviousstressexposures(i.
e.
traininghistory)TransientpsychologicalstatesTransientsocialandenvironmentalfactors.
Accordinglyitcanbeconcludedthat:IdenticaltrainingparameterswillalwayselicitauniqueadaptiveresponseforeachindividualAnindividualwillresponduniquelyeachtimeidenticaltrainingsessionsarerepeatedGeneralizedconclusionsfromgroup-basedobservationsmaybeseriouslymisleadinginguidingindividualtrainingItishighlyimprobablethatthereareuniversal'best'loadingschemesforanygivenpursuitsorobjectives.
HowshouldwecopewhatcanwedoDesignandmanagementofdynamicadaptivepreparationplanningsystemsToerrisverydefinitelyanunavoidableaspectofthehumancondition.
However,itisalsowithinthecom-passofhumaningenuitytocreatesolutions,findalternativewaysofworkinganddevisestrategiesservingtooffsethumanplanninganddecision-makingerrors.
Anunderstandingofthefactorsattherootofourhabitualplanninginadequaciesper-mitstheformulationofsuchpre-emptivestrategies.
Trainingtheoristswhoseworkcontributedtothefor-mulationandpopularizationofperiodizationcon-ceptswerecertainlyintelligent,experiencedandinsightful.
Theirconclusionswereeminentlysensiblewhencontextualizedagainstthepervasiveconcep-tualframeworksandknowledgebaseofthepast.
However,ourexplorationandsynthesisofrelevantemergingevidencethusfarhighlightsanumberofconflictsbetweencurrentscientificknowledgeandtraditionalpractice.
Specifically;threecriticalassumptionsofthetra-ditionalperiodizationplanningmodelarechallenged:Itispossibletopredicttheeffectsofanygiventraininginterventionand/ortrainingorganizationalstructureItisfeasibletooptimallyadvanceplanpreparationprogrammesPrescribingtraininginempiricaltermsisanadequatemeansofcontrollingimposedstress.
InthediscussionthusfarwehaveshownthemismatchbetweenourinnatepredispositionforSECTIONTWOProvision(ofsupport)150rule-directed,pre-formedplanningsolutionsandthecomplexrealityoftheplanningproblem.
Evidencefromotherplanningpursuits,aswellascircumstan-tialevidencefromwithinperformancedomains,hasbeenofferedtoillustratethepotentialconsequencesofthismismatch.
Accordingly,thechallengeofappropriateplanninghasshiftedfromaprocessofmathematicallymanipulatingandsegregatingfuturetrainingintopreformedschemestothedesignofdynamicallyadaptivetrainingsystems.
Consequentrefinementstoconventioncanbecategorizedunderthefollowingfourheadings:ParadigmProcessPlanningstructurePrescription.
ParadigmTheplanningparadigmistheconceptualmodel,theimplicitsetofassumptionsandcorebeliefsthatdefinesourframeworkforunderstandingtheplanningtask.
Aclearlydefinedconceptualknowl-edgeisanessentialaspectofappropriateplanningdecisionmaking.
Withinthischapter,strandsofevidencequestion-inghabitualplanningperspectiveshavebeenexam-ined.
Thekeyconceptualsourcesoferrormaybebroadlysummarizedintotwosections;humancogni-tivelimitationsandtheunderlyingtaskcomplexity.
HumancognitivelimitationsAwarenessofourhumanfallibilityinforecastingandpredictiverealmsshouldfosterahealthyplanninganddecisionmakingparanoia.
Recalltheevidence.
Despitehavinganextensivelydocumentedpoortrackrecordinplanningandpredictivetasks,simul-taneouslywehaveademonstratedtendencytobeover-confidentinthesepursuits.
Thisover-confidence,ourhabitualover-commit-menttofavouredstrategies,ouringenuityinrationa-lizinginconvenientfactsinwaysthatdeflectself-critique,areallfactorsthatlimitlearningfrom,andpredisposetowards,repeatederror.
Thesepeculiaritiesleadtoanevidentpara-dox.
Thevalueswetypicallyadmirein'experts'–assertiveness,undoubtingself-beliefandanunswerv-ingconfidence–aretheverycharacteristicsthatappeartopredisposetodecisionmakingerror.
Yet,ironically,theevidencesuggeststhatourpredictiveconfidencewhenfunctioningincomplexenviron-mentsisunjustifiedandultimatelydelusional.
Thereisanevidentdissonanceinthatthevalueswefindlaudableindecisionmakersarenotnecessarilythosethatfacilitategoodmanagementandplanning.
Thispresentsaconundrumtothoseresponsiblefordirectingphysicalpreparationprogrammes;anappar-entcontradictionbetweencognitiveapproachandself-presentationstyle.
Ononehandthereisthecau-tious,questioning,consultative,consistentlycheck-ingandre-checking,cognitivestylerequiredtoenablegoodplanningdecisionmaking;ontheother,theconfident,assertiveandself-assuredfacadenec-essarytoengenderperformertrust,generateexpec-tationandstrengthencommitmenttothechosenpath.
Understandingourinnatereasoningtendenciesisanimportantfirststepinconqueringthem.
Whilewecannotre-writeourevolutionaryprogramming,wecanbeawareofourhabitualcognitiveblind-spotsanddeviseremedialstrategies.
UnderlyingtaskcomplexityWithinthischapterwehaveuncoveredevidenceofamismatchbetween,ontheonehand,ourinnatedesireforparsimony,simplicityandexplanatoryclo-sure,andontheother,theinherentcomplexityofthepreparationprocess.
Whenfacedwithcomplexreality,thehumanmindrationalizesthethreateningunpredictabilityoftheenvironmentbysearchingforobservablepatterns.
Whenpatternsareobserved,'rules'areextrapolated.
Reviewofperiodizationrationaleclearlyillustratesthecovertshapinginflu-encethatthismechanisticphilosophicallegacyhasexertedontrainingplanningphilosophies.
Simplisticquestions,elicitingsimplisticanswers:WhatistheidealdurationofatrainingphaseHowlongistheoptimaltaperHowfrequent,howhard,howmany,whatpercentageofmaximumBroad,generalized,averagedanswersofferedassolutionstoindividual-specificandcontext-specificproblems.
Muchofphysicalperformancesciencehasbeenabsorbedinthisquestfor'golden'rules,focusedonuncoveringidealizedsolutions,uncoveringthe'answer'.
Ifwetrulyweremechanicalsystems,thisapproachwouldbevalid.
However,yetagainrealityfailstocooperate.
Thecomplex,highlysensitive,natureofthebiologicalsystemwillensurethattheprogressofphys-icalfitnesswillnotbeanorderly,uniformlyincremen-tal,predictableprocess.
Theadaptiveresponsestoanygiventraining'input'willnotresultinareadilyCHAPTER10Planningforphysicalperformance151predictablefitness'output'.
Anapproachthatprovedsuccessfulforoneindividualwillnotnecessarilyworkforanother,andwhatworkedforanindividualinthepastmaynotworkfortheminthefuture.
Furthermore,andcritically,youcannotdeterminethemostappropriatestrategyinadvance.
Considerthis:wouldyoubuynextyear'sshoesforyour9-year-oldchildbasedontheaverageshoesizefor10-year-oldsOfcoursenot!
Youwouldberelyingonaverybroadpredictivealgorithmbasedonaver-agedobservationswithlargesampledeviations.
Whatyouwoulddoiswaituntilthechildis10,measuretheirfeet,andbuyapairofshoesthatyouknowwillfit.
Youwouldalsomonitorthefitcarefullyasyourchildgrew,toanticipateandavoidtheproblemsinherentinunforeseenandsuddenchangesingrowth.
Responsestotrainingareinfinitelymorevariable,lesspredictableandmoresubjecttochangeovershort-timescalesthanagrowingchild'sfoot-size.
Sowhywouldweassumethatwecanprescribefutureoptimalorganizationalschemes,trainingmodesorloadingvariablesThetraditionalplanningmodelpresentssweepinggeneralizationsinrelationtothe'best'structure,phaseduration,sequentialorder,offeringplannersidealizedtrainingsolutions.
Althoughperiodizationtheoristshavevariouslychampionedanddebatedtherelativeworthofdifferingorganizationalschemes,theevi-dencesuggeststhatsuchargumentsare,toalargeextent,irrelevant.
Ratherthansearchingfornotionaluniversal'best'answersthatarethencobbledtogethertoformulateplans,amoreperceptiveapproachisthedesignofprocessesthatfacilitatetheemergenceofcontext-specifictrainingsolutions.
Thekeytake-homemessageisthatautomatedplanningapproachesignoretheextremespecificityarisingfromindividualbiologicalsystemsinteractingwithever-changing,dynamiccontexts.
ProcessEarlierinthechapteritwassuggestedthattradi-tionaltrainingplanningapproachesweredirectlydes-cendedfromthehistoricallypervasivemechanisticplanningparadigm.
Thereareanumberofhangoversfromthisformativephilosophystillreadilyapparentinmoderntrainingplanningconceptions.
RecallthatTaylor'sconceptionofplanningwasessentially'plan'then'execute'.
Thisapproachpromotedrigidadher-encetotheplan,anddevaluedtheimportanceofreviewandrevision.
Consequently,stickingtotheplanwasconsideredanidealtobeaspiredto,anddeviatingfromtheplanwasultimatelyasignofweakness.
Althoughclassicalarticlesonperiodizationhavefrequentlymadereferencetotheneedforflexi-bility,ittendstobetreatedmoreasanecessaryevilthanavirtuetobeembraced:asometimesunavoid-able,frustratingdeviationfromthechosenpath.
However,amainthrustofthischapteristhatthecorrectpathcannotbechosenaheadoftime.
Accord-ingly,whatnowtakesonaddedsignificanceisthedesignofasensitiveandresponsivepreparationprocess:sensitivetoemergingthreatsandopportu-nities;responsivesoastoenableswiftmodificationoftraininginordertoalleviateriskandcapitalizeonunforeseenprogression.
Thefollowingareofferedashallmarksofasensi-tiveandresponsivetrainingprocess.
InformationgatheringInformationthatisrelevanttoorganizingandplanningpreparationcanbecollectedthroughbothformalandinformalmeansandshouldincludethecollationofbothobjectiveandsubjectivedata(Fig.
10.
2).
Theworthofperformer-generatedsubjectiveinformationhassurprisinglybeenlargelyignoredwithinthetraditionalperiodizationliterature.
Thisshouldbeconsideredamajoroversight,essentiallyneglectingtheprimarysourceofpertinentfeedback,i.
e.
theperformerhim/herself.
Thevalueofsubjec-tivefeedbackasatrainingmodulatingfactorhasbeenclearlydemonstratedelsewhereintheliterature.
Forexample,aclinicaldiagnosisofanathlete'sstateofFig.
10.
2Supportspecialistsinaction.
RallydriverGiovanniBernacchinimakinglast-minutecheckswithhisengineer.
StobartMotorport.
WiththankstotheRoyalAutomobileMotorSportsAssociation.
SECTIONTWOProvision(ofsupport)152stressandrecoveryispossiblethroughconsiderationofrelevantsubjectiveparameters(Steinacker&Leh-mann2002).
Varioustoolsforelicitingsuchinforma-tionhavebeenofferedintheliterature,e.
g.
theProfileofMoodStates(Armstrong&VanHeest2002),Recovery-StressQuestionnaireforAthletes(Kellmann&Kallus2001),MentalStatesofReadi-nessandSatisfaction(Hogg2002)andthePsycho-behaviouralOvertrainingScale(Collins1995).
Inordertooptimizetheefficacyofsuchprotocols,theperformershouldbefullyawareofthepurposeandrationaleunderpinningsubjectivedatacollec-tion.
Furthermore,accuracyofsubjectiveratingsislikelytobegreatlyenhancedbycleardefinitionofratingsystems,andconsistentapplication.
TrendanalysisThebeliefthateffectivepreplanningispossible,thatadherencetopreplannedschemesisdesirableandthatplansmaybeadequatelydescribedinsparingempiricaltermscreatesasystemthatisparticularlyinsensitivetowhatmaybetermed'weaksignals'.
Weaksignalsmaybeconsideredlow-levelback-groundinformationthatmayheraldfuturemajorchangesinfunction.
Thesebifurcationsinbehaviourmaytaketheformofunexpectedfavourableshiftsinconditionthatmaypresentunforeseentrainingopportunitiesormayprovideearlyindicationofele-vatedrisk.
Forexample,muscularstraininjuriesmaybeprecededbypersistentlocalizedfatigue,whichinturnmayonlybedetectedthroughaprocessofreg-ularinformationgatheringandroutinein-training'readiness'assessments.
Failuretorespondaccordinglytopertinentlow-levelinformationislikelytoincreasetheprospectofunfavourableoutcomessuchasillness,injuryandunder-oroverloading.
Hencesystemsensitivitytoweaksignalsfacilitatesthepre-emptionandavoid-anceofpotentiallyunfavourableeventsandenablestheadaptivereadinessnecessarytorespondandcap-italizeonunforeseenopportunities.
Anunforeseentrainingopportunitymaytaketheformofanunpro-jectedimprovementintrainingperformance,whichinturnmayfacilitatethepositivereadjustmentoftraininggoals.
Withinthesportsscienceliterature,muchtimeandenergyhasbeendevotedtofindingreliablemar-kersofphysiologicalfunction,variablesthatmayserveasindicatorsoftheperformer'sreadinesstotrain.
Theuncoveringofsuchmarkerswouldgreatlyenhancethepreparationprocess.
Althoughmanyobjectivemarkershavebeeninvestigated,nonehaveprovedtobeuniversallyapplicable.
Whenwelookattheproblemfromtheperspectiveofbiologicalcomplexityitmakessensethatsucha'onesizefitsall'measurewouldproveelu-sive.
Inaddition,giventherangeofbothinter-andintraperformervariation,coupledwiththediversityofdemandsofthevariousperformancepursuits,thesearchforasingledefinitivemarkermayultimatelybeunrealistic.
However,whatdoessuggestitselfasaperceptiveandpracticalwayforwardisthecollationofbothobjectiveandsubjectiveinformationandtheperiodictrendanalysisofsuchdata.
Thelinkingofanumberoflow-level'weaksignals'maypre-emptfuturebiologicaleventsmoreeffectivelythananysinglemarker.
Linkedindicatorsarelikelytovaryonbothadisciplineandonanindividualbasis,andyetagain,frustratingly,weareunlikelytobeabletopredictwhichtrendsaremostcriticaluntilwehavelongitu-dinallycollatedandanalysedthedata.
Hencewhatisrequiredisanattentiontorecordingdetail,regularreviewoftrainingandperformancetrends,andanongoingsearchforclues.
Ultimately,theeffectivenessofthetrainingprocessislikelytobelargelydictatedbythiscapacitytoreadilyanticipatepositiveornega-tivetrendsandadaptaccordingly(seeTable10.
1).
Afinalpointofnote:whenoperatingincomplexenvir-onmentsitisverydifficulttolearnunless,first,weobservewithanopenmindasdevoidaspossibleofpre-conceptionand,second,wehavesomedefinitivemeansofcheckingprojectionsagainstoutcomes.
Inperformancetrainingcontexts,thecollationofabroadrangeofsubjectiveandobjectivedataandtheconse-quenttrendanalysisofthisinformationisthebesttoolavailabletoprovidesuchsorelyneededrealitychecks.
Tosummarize:DatacollectionandtrendanalysisshouldbeanintegralpartofthetrainingprocessIttakestimetobuildacoherentpicture.
FordatacollectiontobeoptimallyusefulitneedstobeconductedoverprolongedperiodssothattrendscanbeidentifiedandtrackedIntroducedatacollationfromthestartofthetrainingprocess;itistoolatewheninjury,illnessorovertraininghavealreadyoccurredUsetrainingdatatolearnlessons.
CheckprojectionsagainstoutcomesEstablishingtrendsmayprovehelpfulindeterminingappropriateendpointsforreturntoexerciseprogrammesfollowinginjuryorillness.
CHAPTER10Planningforphysicalperformance153Communication,consultationandchallengeOptimizedcommunicationsareanessentialcompo-nentofanyeffectivemanagementprocess.
Accord-ingly,dueconsiderationmustbegiventoenhancingnetworkingbetweentheperformer,thetrainingdirectorandperformer-centredsupportteam.
Every-daycommunicationchecksshouldpromoteclaritythroughouttheteam:Istheperformerclearonwhythey'redoingwhatthey'redoingDoestheperformerunderstandexactlyhowacertainmodeoftrainingshouldfeelIstheperformerconfidentoftheefficacyofconductedtrainingandonhowtrainingmodeswillpositivelyimpactonfutureeventspecificperformanceIsthesupportteamclearontheirresponsibilitiesandtheexpectationsplaceduponthemIsthelanguageusedtocommunicatecriticalconceptsshared,clear,andpreciseAreyousureCheckandrecheck!
Incomplexenvironmentstherearealwaysinnumer-ablepotentialperspectivesonthebestwayforwardandinnumerablewaystojustifyapreferredcourseofaction.
Thereforeitisimportantthat,inexploringtheworthofaproposedwayforward,thetrainingdirectorseeksdissonant,ratherthanconcurring,per-spectives.
Asaprotocol,thismaytaketheformofaskingsupportteammemberstoplaydevil'sadvo-cateincritiquingproposedtrainingplans;perhapsreversingrolesandarguingopposingpositionsmayproveausefulstrategy.
Externalconsultantscanalsoofferanewperspectiveandhonestappraisalwithoutthereticencefrequentlydemonstratedbyteammembers.
Whateverstrategiesareemployed,itshouldbeborneinmindthatthegreatestlearningopportunitiesareunlikelytoemergethroughthevisionofasinglemindor,indeed,throughcosyagree-mentamonggroupmemberswhosharestronglyheldbutsimilarconvictions.
Instead,appropriatesolutionsaremorelikelytoevolvethroughinformed,un-entrencheddebateandconsiderationofdifferingperspectives.
Inenvironmentswherehumanlearn-ingisseverelycurtailedbyourtendencytoseizeonthefirstavailableperceivedpatternandfromthenontoseeonlyconfirmingevidence,dissonanceisthefriendoflearning.
Theseapproachessupporttheuseofcaseconfer-encingandothermethodshighlightedinChapter24.
Directors,managers,coachesandseniorstaffallneedtoplayapartindevelopingaperformanceculturethatoptimizesbenefitfromthiskindofcommunication.
Built-inreviewandrevisionTraditionalprojectplanningandmanagementtoolscanfrequentlydealwithminoruncertaintiesinrela-tivelystableenvironments.
Inmoredynamicenvir-onments,conditionsmayrapidlyevolvebeyondtheassumptionsmadeinpreplanning,requiringmajordeviationsfromthepathinitiallyselected.
Consequently,rigidplanningstrategiesdesignedsolelyonthebasisof'hoped-for'ormostlikelyout-comes,whichdonotincorporatemechanismsenablingswiftmodification,areunlikelytoyieldoptimalresults.
Giventheunpredictabilityandcha-oticbehaviourofbiologicalsystems,contingency-planningprocessesshouldbeconsideredanimpor-tantcomponentofpreparationplanning.
Performersandteammembersshouldbeawarethatregularreviewandtrainingredirectionisaneces-saryandplannedaspectofeffectiveplanmanagement.
PlanningstructureTheimplicationsofbiologicalcomplexitysuggestthereislittleifanylogicalrationalesupportingtheexistenceofuniversal'best'phaseduration.
How-ever,thisdoesnotnecessarilyimplythatpro-grammesshouldnotbeplannedinsegmentedblocks.
Thekeypointisthatphasedurationshouldbedecidedonthebasisoflogisticalconstraintsandnotonanyperceivedbiologicalimperative.
Accord-ingly,ifitsuitsthespecificlogisticalsituation,oraparticularperformer'spreferredapproach,orjusthappenstomakethemostsenseforaspecificperiod,thenplanninginblocksmaybeajudicioussolution.
However,mostconvenientdoesnotnecessarilyequaloptimal:thelongerthetime-lagbetweenreviewandredirection,thegreatertheuncertainty.
Thereforeitwouldappearsensibletoreviewanddebrieftrainingprogressonaroutineandregularbasisandtorefinetrainingdirectionaccordinglyonasfrequentabasisaslogisticallyfeasible.
Trainingmonotonyhasbeenproposedasanimportantconceptinthemanagementoftrainingplans(Bosch&Klomp2005,Foster1998,Kreideretal1998).
MonotonyhasbeendefinedastheSECTIONTWOProvision(ofsupport)154variabilityofpracticeoverthecourseofaseason(Andersonetal2003)andissuggestedasatrain-ingerrorthatincreasestheriskofovertrainingsyndromes(Kellmann2002).
Hightrainingmonot-onyhasbeenlinkedtopoorperformanceandanincreasedfrequencyofbanalinfections,whereasareductioninmonotonywasrelatedtoattainmentofpersonalbestperformances(Foster&Lehmann1997,Suzukietal2003).
Accordingly,anindexoftrainingmonotony,calculatedusingperformerratingsofperceivedexertion,hasbeenemployedasausefultraining-monitoringtoolinrowing(Suzukietal2003)andsprinting(Suzukietal2006).
Long-termphysicaltrainingschemesthatdonotprovidesufficientdiversityofbothloadingandmovementcharacteristicsarelikelytoexposeperfor-merstoheightenedrisksofstressdisorders.
Forexample,inballet,evidencesuggeststhatsupple-mentary(non-ballet)trainingledtoimprovementsinfitnessparametersandreducedinjuryoccurrencewithoutinterferingwithkeyartisticandaestheticrequirements(Koutedakis&Jamurtas2004).
Koute-dakis&Jamurtassuggestthat,evenattheheightoftheirprofessionalcareers,dancers'aerobicpower,muscularstrength,muscularbalance,andboneandjointintegrityarethe'Achillesheel'ofthedance-onlyselectionandtrainingsystem.
Consequently,itwouldappearsensibletomini-mizetrainingmonotony.
However,itisimportanttorecognizethatoccasionallyconcentratedphasesofreplicatedtrainingstressmayservetoinducerapiddevelopmentofaparticularfitnesscomponent.
Conversely,itshouldalsobenotedthat,iftrainingistoowidelydiverseforextendedperiods,thengainsinfitnessparametersarelikelytobeblunted.
Hencethereisanevidenttrade-offthatmustbenegotiatedandadelicatebalancethatmustbestruckbetweentrainingmonotony,trainingvariationanddiminish-ingtrainingreturnsresultingfromhabituationtoanunvaryingtrainingstressor.
Themostpercep-tivesolutiontothistrade-offproblemisonceagaintoadoptasensitiveandresponsivemanagementapproach.
Theeffectivetrainingprocesswillmoni-tor,record,gatherrelevantinformation,analysethetrends,andcanthusfacilitateinformedtrainingdecisions(seeTable10.
1).
PrescriptionAhypothetically'ideal'trainingloadisonethatocca-sionsthegreatestperformanceadaptationatthelowestpossiblecostintermsofenergy,residualfatigueandriskofinjury.
Iftrainingloadistoolow,minimalorsuboptimaladaptiveresponseresults;conversely,ifloadistoogreatthensomeformofdamagewilloccur.
Traditionally,trainingisprescribedsolelyusingempiricaldescriptors.
Howmanysets,howmanytimes,atwhatnumericalexpressionofintensityGiventheextentofbiologicalsensitivityexploredearlier,prescribingtraininginsuchtermsmustbeconsideredacrudeattemptatprovidingtheprecisionrequiredingaugingoptimalloads.
Inessence,thisapproachcanbeseenasattemptingtocontroltheadaptationofaverysensitivesystemusingatechnologythatisgrosslyinsensitive.
Butperhapstheadvanceplanningof'ideal'trainingparametersisnotalwaysnecessaryFormanysessionsacrudeprescriptionisadequate.
Recallthatitisthenatureofthechaoticbiologicalsystemtobuffershocks,toself-organizetoaccommodatestress;ourbiologyisremarkablyabletoabsorbandadapt.
Sounlessthecapabilityofaperformerisgrosslyover-estimatedthenaninappropriateimpositionofstress,forasinglesession,willbeaccommodated.
However,duringperiodsofelevatedstress,thecapacityofthesystemtocopeispushedtoitslimit.
Theinvestmentofbothphysiologicalandpsychologicalresourceissubstantialanddraining.
Thoughthepotentialgainsarehigh,sotooarethepotentialrisks.
Insuchcircumstancesoptimallyaccurateprescriptionandmanagementoftrainingtakesonanaddedsignificance.
Similarly,slightbutchronictrainingerrorsmayinsidiouslycreepeverclosertocriticalthresholdlevels.
Maybehormonalhealthiscompromised;perhapsimmunefunctionisgraduallysuppressed;muscularbiases,imbalancesandirritationsgrow.
Thepressureofaconfluenceofnegativechangesinseveralfactorsmaygraduallymountand,unlessthispressureisvented,illnessorinjurywillinevitablyresult.
Acounterclaimtothischargemaybethatsuchmeansofprescriptionaretheonlyavailableoptionandthatperformersarenotexpectedtostickrigidlytotheplanaspresentedonpaper.
However,theplandoessetthetone.
Itdoesservetoconstrainthefieldofpossibilities.
Afinalimplicationofthetraditionalnumericalmeansofprescribingtrainingisitssurreptitiousinsin-uationthatconformingtoempiricalpreplannedvari-ablesisimportant.
Suchaperspectivepromotesthefallacythatnon-adherencetoempiricallyprescribed,preplannedloadingisaformoffailure,essentiallyasignofweakness.
ItwouldappearlikelythatsuchaCHAPTER10Planningforphysicalperformance155beliefstructureisattherootofprevalentissuessuchasovertraining,burnoutandstaleness.
WhatcanwedoSimpletoolsfordynamicadaptiveplanningTheimplicationsoftheevidencepresented,andthekeythrustsofthischapter,areessentiallythreefold:Eachplanningtaskpresentsadistinctchallenge,andhenceoptimallyefficientplanningsolutionsareinevitablyuniqueandcannotbeempiricallypre-plannedTheunpredictabilityinherentinthephysicalpreparationprocessdemandsthatexpectationsareconsistentlymonitoredagainsttheprogressdata.
Hence,informationgatheringandinsightfulassessmenttoolsshouldbeconsideredafundamentalcomponentofappropriateplanningTraditionalperiodizationconceptsfoundedindeterministiclogiccannolongerbeconsideredscientificallyvalid.
Instead,trainingplanningismoreappropriatelyperceivedasthedesignofsystemsthatfacilitatetheevolutionofoptimaltrainingstructuresbaseduponemerginginformationandchallenges(Box10.
4).
Asexemplarsofwaystomeetthesechallenges,con-siderTable10.
1,whichpresentsasamplemenuofvariousmonitoringtools,manyofwhichhavebeenpreviouslyadvocatedintheliterature.
Thesetoolsarebeingofferedsolelyasexamplesofeasilyappliedsubjective/objectiveassessments.
Toreiterateapre-viouspoint,useofanyofthesetoolsinisolationislikelytobelesseffectivethantheuseofmonitoringcombinations.
Aswithallthekeymessagesinthischapter,indeedinthisbook,appropriatesolutionscanonlybeunravelledafterexploration.
Theprescriptionoftrainingvariablesisanaspectoftraditionalpracticethatmayalsobenefitfromadditionalprecision.
Considerthefollowing:inaprevioussurvey,investigatorsexaminedtherelation-shipbetweenthetrainingprescribedby123coachesandtheself-reportedtrainingoftheirbestrunners(Hewson&Hopkins1995).
Theresultsillustratedthattheassociationbetweenthecoach'sprescriptionandtheactualtrainingperformedbytherunnerswasgenerallypoor.
Thiswasattributedtoinsufficientlyclearcommunicationbetweencoachandathlete.
Athletesdidadheretothecoach'sprescriptionswithregardtotrainingvolumesbuttheintensitiesdescribedbythecoachesandperformedbytheathletesweresubstantiallydifferent.
Similarfindingshavebeendocumentedinswimmers(Stewart&Hopkins2000).
Apracticalmeansofoptimizingclarityinthecom-municationoftrainingintensitiesisthroughtriangu-lationoftrainingvariables.
Inotherwords,foranydesiredtrainingadaptation,appropriatetrainingdescriptorsarecross-referenced.
Forexample,thisishowmuchworkshouldbedone,thisishowtheworkshouldfeelandthisisthenecessaryqualityofexecution.
(Comparethiswiththeideaofperfor-mancecriteriadescribedinCh.
23.
)Thetriangulationofvariablesenablesamoreaccu-rateprescriptionoftrainingparameters,thushelpingtoeradicatesomeofthepitfallsinherentwhendescribingtrainingloadingsinsolelyempirical,unidi-mensionalterms(Table10.
2).
SummaryTheobjectiveofthischapterwastoprovideanappreci-ationofbothpsychologicalandbiologicalconsiderationsthataffectourabilitytoformulateandmanagepreparationplans.
ItisclearfromtheargumentsandBox10.
4CharacteristicsofaneffectivedynamicadaptiveplanningsystemAppropriateconceptualmodelOptimizedsystemsfunctioningSharedobjectivesandethosCommunicationsandnetworkingOrganizationallearningDatacollationandtrendanalysisLogisticalplanningconstraintsOptimizedcontacttimewithtrainingdirectorandaccesstosupportteamExperienceandrelevanteducationofperformerFrequentconsultation,review,debriefandredirectionMinimizedplanninghorizonPracticaldeliveryContingencyplanningandpreparatorystrategiesProvisionofFocusedDiversity(MonotonyV'sVariationtrade-off)Subjective/objectivemonitoringcombinationsCross-referencedtrainingprescriptionOptimizedsystemsensitivityandresponsivenesstoemergingthreatsandopportunitiesSECTIONTWOProvision(ofsupport)156evidencepresentedthatmanyaspectsofourcustomaryplanningapproacheslackbothanempiricalevidencebaseandanunderpinningconceptuallogic.
Theillusorysecurityofassumed'rules'andtheassociatedsimplisticvisionofthepreparationtaskshouldberejected,andtherealityofbiologicalcomplexityandtheimplicationsofhumancogni-tivelimitationsacknowledged.
Critically,adynamicadaptiveplanningapproachdemandsthattheele-mentaluncertaintyandambiguityinherentintrain-ingplanningisrecognizedandappropriatecounteractivestrategiesdevised.
Unfortunately,aswithsomanyofthethingsthataregoodforus,thisapproachisalsomoredif-ficultandmorechallengingthantraditionalpre-formedplanningrecipes.
Themanagementskillsrequiredarealsonotnecessarilythosehistoricallypromoted.
Formal,pedagogicalplanningskillsareoflimitedvaluewithinsuchadynamicenviron-ment.
Instead,ofmorepivotalimportanceistheorganizationalabilitytocreatesupportteamnet-works,todevelopcommunicationssystems,toimplementinformationgatheringprocessesandtooptimizeorganizationallearning.
TheplanningTable10.
1SomesuggestedmonitoringmethodsWhenWhatWhosaysPre-pretrainingSubjectiveindicatorof'general'well-being,e.
g.
RESTQ,POMS,recovery-cue;abbreviatedversionsofsameCollins2000Kellmann2002ObjectivemeasureMorningHR/HRvariabilityPretrainingSubjectiverating(Score1–10)ofkeyindicators,e.
g.
MoodSleepqualityReadinesstotrainResidualmusclesoreness/fatigueSitespecificsorenessratingPerceivedreadinessratingCollins2000Objectivemeasure(readinesscheck)Psychomotorspeed/reactiontimeMeasuresystemreadiness,e.
g.
countermovementjump(height);dropjump(contacttime/height)Nurmekivietal2001Rietjensetal2005Nederhofetal2006,2007In-trainingPrescriptiveaccuracyRatedesiredintensity(howitshouldfeel)Technicalexecution(requiredquality)Empiricalrange(loadandrepetitionlimits)RecordingdetailEmpiricaldescriptorsRPE(pereffort,set,orsession)Post-trainingPost-sessionobjectivemeasureRepeatpre-sessionreadinesscheckSessionRPE.
Retrospectivelycalculateassociatedmeasures,e.
g.
Monotony(weeklyaverageload/standarddeviation)Strain(meanweeklyloadmonotony)Trainingload(RPEtrainingtime)CPS(categoryratiopainscale)TQR(totalqualityrecovery)Weeklytraining'stress'assessmentDailyand/orindividualsessionRPEweektotalSuzukietal2003,2006HR,heartrate;POMS,profileofmoodstate;RESTQ,recovery-stressquestionnaireforathletes;RPE,ratingofperceivedexertionCHAPTER10Planningforphysicalperformance157processnowbecomescentredonfacilitatingtheseamlessemergenceoftrainingstrategyinresponsetounfoldingevents,withintheboundariesimposedbylogisticalfactors,thestatedprogrammeobjec-tivesandthetimeframeimposedbytheperformanceschedule.
Andfinally.
.
.
MikeTysononcesaid,'everyonehasaplan,untiltheygetpunchedintheface',andthat'squiteaninsightfulcomment.
Ifweplanonthebasisofoptimistic,'hopedfor'outcomes,neglectingcontingencies,ourplansbecomefragile,vulnerabletounexpectedeventsandconsequentlyeasilydisruptedandderailed.
Conversely,aplanningparadigmfoundedontheprinciplesofconsistentassessmentandrapidadjustmentenablestheevasionofpotentialstum-blingblocks,facilitatingrobustandsustainableprep-arationprocesses.
Effectivepreparationplansidentifyandcircumnavigatepotentialpitfalls,aresensitivetoemergingthreatsandrespondwithcon-sideredandtimelyaction.
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