consecutivebaidu
www.baidu.com.cn 时间:2021-02-13 阅读:()
6June2014Page|1Rating:NeutralKingdeeInt'lSoftware((((268.
HK))))CostcontrolmoreimportantthanrevenuegrowthHONGKONG|SOFTWARE|COMPANYANALYSISMaintainedatNeutralKingdee's2013turnoverwasRMB1.
602billion,down9.
3%yoy.
GrossprofitfortheyearwasRMB1.
206billion,raisedby5.
1%yoy.
OperatingprofitandprofitattributabletoshareholdersturnaroundtoprofitasRMB239millionandRMB126millionrespectively.
Benefitedfromrecentgovernmentpolicyonsupportingthesoftwareindustry,andtheconcernsforthenetworkinformationsecurity,Kingdee'srevenueonsoftwareandsolutionimplementationservicesareexpectedtoreturntogrowth.
ThecompanywastransformingitsbusinessfromtraditionalERPbusinesstocloudservice.
Inthefutureitwillincreaseinvestmentinthedevelopmentofcloudservices.
TheGroup'srevenuefromcorebusinesswasinsufficienttopayallcostsandexpenses.
Ontheotherhand,theimpactofgoodcostcontroltoprofitabilitymayhaveevenmoreimpressiveresultthantherevenueincrease.
WemaintainKingdee"neutral"rating,withbusinessvaluationofHK$2.
36pershareandcashvalueofHK$0.
41pershare,targetpriceHK$2.
77.
KingdeeInternationalSoftwareGroupCo.
,Ltd.
wasfoundedin1993,whichwasabusinessmanagementsoftwareandInternetserviceproviderthatservedoveronemillionSMEsinChinaandtheAsiaPacificregion.
Itsenterpriseresourceplanning(ERP)softwarewasaleadingbrandfortheSMEmarketinChina.
Otherproductsincludedcloudservices,Youshang.
com,Kuaidi100mobileplatformandapplication,middlewaresoftwarebusinessandKingdeemedicalandhealthcaresoftware.
FinancialHighlightsKingdee's2013turnoverwasRMB1.
602billion(asbelow),down9.
3%yoy.
Amongthatthesalesofsoftwarefellby11.
8%toRMB770million;therevenueofsoftwareimplementationserviceswasRMB431million,dropped11.
4%yoy;andsoftwaresolutionconsultingservicesandothersdecreasedslightlyby1.
1%toRMB400million.
Duetothedecreaseincostofsales,grossprofitfortheyearwasRMB1.
206billion,raisedby5.
1%yoy,whilethegrossprofitmarginalsoincreasedsignificantlyfrom65%to75.
3%.
OperatingprofitandprofitattributabletoshareholdersturnaroundtoprofitasRMB239millionandRMB126millionrespectively.
Inaddition,itssubsidiaryKingdeeChinaannouncedfinancialfiguresforthefirstquarterof2014,whichturnoverwasRMB274million,up6.
18%yoy,whilethenetlosswasRMB18.
98million,narrowedfrom2012'sRMB68.
32millionloss.
InvestmentActionInconclusion,thefinancialstatementsshowedquitenegativefigures,thatthecompany'scorebusinesswastemporarilyunabletorecordpositiveearnings.
WeexpectKingdeerevenuegrowthwillreturnthisyear,particularlyforitscloudbusiness.
However,ifthegroupcannoteffectivelycontrolitscostsandexpenses,particularlyforthesellingexpenseswhicharedirectlylinkedtoturnover,therevenuegrowthwillbeoffsetbyitsexpenses.
Therefore,wemaintainKingdee"neutral"rating,withbusinessvaluationofHK$2.
36pershareandcashvalueofHK$0.
41pershare,targetpriceHK$2.
77.
Businessvaluationis28xofthe2015forecastedearnings.
KINGDEEINTLSFTRating3.
00Neutral-PreviousRating3.
00NeutralTargetPrice(HKD)2.
77-PreviousTargetPrice(HKD)3ClosingPrice(HKD)2.
66ExpectedCapitalGains(%)4.
1%ExpectedDividendYield(%)0.
0%ExpectedTotalReturn(%)4.
1%MarketCap.
(HKDmn)6,815EnterpriseValue(HKDmn)7,5593MAverageDailyT/O(mn)39.
252weekrange(HKD)1.
28-3.
69ClosingPricein52weekrangeKeyFinancialSummaryFYEMARFY13FY14EFY15EFY16ERevenue(RMBmn)1,6021,7741,9632156NetProfit,reported(RMBmn)127149179238EPS,adj.
(HKDcents)6.
207.
078.
4311.
28P/E(X)42.
837.
831.
423.
6P/B(X)3.
13.
02.
72.
4DPS(RMBcents)0.
00.
00.
02.
2DivYield(%)0.
0%0.
0%0.
0%0.
8%Source:Bloomberg,PSRest.
ValuationMethodPEResearchAnalystKayNgkayng@phillip.
com.
hk+852227767510%50%100%0204060801001201401601800.
000.
501.
001.
502.
002.
503.
003.
504.
00Jun-13Aug-13Oct-13Dec-13Feb-14Apr-14Jun-14Volume,mn(RHS)268.
HKEquity(LHS)HSI(LHS)0%50%100%KingdeeInt'lSoftware(268.
HK)6June2014Page|2Underthegovernmentsupportivepolicies,turnoverisexpectedtoreturntogrowthAsubsidiaryofKingdeewasrecognizedas"2013-2014nationalimportantsoftwareenterprises"andwasentitledtomaintainpreferentialenterpriseincometaxrateof10%.
Inaddition,theCompanywashonoredas"TheNo1MarketShareLeaderinChina'sSMEMarket"byIDCforthenineconsecutiveyears,whichindicateditsstrongrecognitioninthemainlandmarket.
Earlylastmonth,PRCGovernmentprohibitedthestatedepartmentsfrominstallationofMicrosoft'sWindows8operatingsystem.
Also,theGovernmentwasconsideringtheimpactonthenationalinformationsecurityofIBMserversandthusencouragingcommercialbankstoswitchtodomesticservers.
TherewasalsomarketnewsonGovernment'sscheduleonimplementationofinternetsecurityexaminationsystemtosafeguardthenationalnetworksecurity.
Benefitedfromrecentgovernmentpolicyonsupportingthesoftwareindustry,andtheaboveseriesofactionsforthenetworkinformationsecurity,Kingdee'srevenueonsoftwareandsolutionimplementationservicesareexpectedtoreturntogrowth.
Fig1Fig1Fig1Fig1RevenueMixEstimateRevenueMixEstimateRevenueMixEstimateRevenueMixEstimateSource:PSR,CompanyreportsCloudservicesstartedtoplayanimportantroleAccordingtotheGroup'smanagement,thecompanywastransformingitsbusinessfromtraditionalERPbusinesstocloudservice.
InthefutureitwillincreaseinvestmentinthedevelopmentofcloudservicesinordertoattractInternetusersinadditiontocorporatecustomers.
Cloudserviceiscurrentlyonlyconsistedof4%ofthetotalrevenue,whichisexpectedtoturnintohalfin2018,thesameasthetraditionalERPbusiness.
InMarch,thecompanyhadsetupamobileservicesplatform"BizChat"fortheVankeGroup,justsimilarto"theenterpriseWeChat".
IthadalsoactivelyworkingwithmajorInternetgiants.
Currently,Kingdee's"Kuaidi100"andBaiducarriesoutaseriesofcooperationinmobileservices,anditsfinancialsoftwareworkswithAlibaba'sTaobaotoprovideintegratedTaobao,TmallandAlipaydataservicestosellers.
FortheInternetfinancing,theGroupiscurrentlyplanningtocooperatewithmajorbankgroupstodevelopamobileapplicationtohelptheirbankcustomersinwealthmanagement.
KingdeeInt'lSoftware(268.
HK)6June2014Page|3CorerevenuewasnotenoughtocoverthecostsandexpendituresDespitethelossturnaroundintoprofit,revenueandexpenditurestructureshowedthattheGroup'srevenuefromcorebusinesswasinsufficienttopayallcostsandexpenses.
WhiletheannualturnoverwasRMB1.
602billion,thetotalcostplusexpensesreachedRMB1.
662billion,aRMB60milliongap.
Thoughitalreadynarrowedfromthegapsin2011and2012,asRMB235millionandRMB424millionrespectively.
Infact,thecompanyhadjuststartedtochangeitsdistributionmodel,makingsellingandmarketingexpensesdroppedsignificantlyby28.
2%yoytoRMB828million.
Sellingexpensestorevenueratiofellfrom65.
4%to51.
7%.
However,itwasstillaccountedformorethanhalfofthecompany'srevenuewhichwouldprobablyhadnegativeimpactonthefutureprofit.
Ontheotherhand,theimpactofgoodcostcontroltoprofitabilitymayhaveevenmoreimpressiveresultthantherevenueincrease.
Fig2Fig2Fig2Fig2CostsCostsCostsCoststotototorevenueestimatrevenueestimatrevenueestimatrevenueestimatesesesesSource:PSR,CompanyreportFig3Fig3Fig3Fig3CostsaspercentageofrevenueestimatesCostsaspercentageofrevenueestimatesCostsaspercentageofrevenueestimatesCostsaspercentageofrevenueestimatesSource:PSR,CompanyreportCurrentlytheGroupreliedonlyonnoncoreincome,suchasinvestmentonpropertiestomaintainprofitability.
Thoughthecorebusinessisexpectedtobreakeventhisyear,significantpositiveearningsoncorebusinessmayonlyappearin2016orlater.
Alsonotethat,sincetheatmosphereofthemainlandpropertymarketisnolongerpositive,ifthereisasubstantialadjustmentonthepropertyprice,itmaycausethefairvalueoftheGroup'spropertiestoreduceandthustheearnings.
KingdeeInt'lSoftware(268.
HK)6June2014Page|4Financialexpensesincreasedsignificantlyby67.
9%yoytoRMB111millionlastyear,mainlyastheinterestexpenseduetoincreaseincurrentliabilities.
Withstabilizedcurrentliabilitiesandobviousdecreaseinnon-currentliabilities,theinterestexpensewillgraduallyreduce.
Besides,theGroupkeepsinissuingconvertiblebonds,andgrantingstockoptionstoitsemployeesthroughshare-basedbonusscheme,theremaybringdilutiveeffecttothestockinthefuture.
ValuationInconclusion,thefinancialstatementsshowedquitenegativefigures,thatthecompany'scorebusinesswastemporarilyunabletorecordpositiveearnings.
WeexpectKingdeerevenuegrowthwillreturnthisyear,particularlyforitscloudbusiness.
However,ifthegroupcannoteffectivelycontrolitscostsandexpenses,particularlyforthesellingexpenseswhicharedirectlylinkedtoturnover,therevenuegrowthwillbeoffsetbyitsexpenses.
Therefore,wemaintainKingdee"neutral"rating,withbusinessvaluationofHK$2.
36pershareandcashvalueofHK$0.
41pershare,targetpriceHK$2.
77.
Businessvaluationis28xofthe2015forecastedearnings.
PotentialRisksThegrowthonCloudbusinessisnotasexpected;Costuncontrolled;Thedilutiveeffectfromstockoptionsandconvertiblebonds.
KingdeeInt'lSoftware(268.
HK)6June2014Page|5FY12FY13FY14EFY15EFY16EValuationRatiosP/E(X)(38.
5)42.
837.
831.
423.
6P/B(X)3.
43.
13.
02.
72.
4EV/EBITDA(X)(73.
4)31.
726.
424.
721.
7DividendYield(%)0.
0%0.
0%0.
0%0.
0%0.
8%Persharedata(HKD)EPS(0.
07)0.
060.
070.
080.
11DPS0.
000.
000.
000.
000.
02BVPS0.
780.
860.
900.
991.
10OutstandingShares(basic,mn)2,516.
342,523.
742,621.
802,621.
802,621.
80Growth&Margins(%)GrowthRevenue-12.
7%-9.
3%10.
7%10.
7%9.
8%EBIT-154.
1%-331.
8%19.
8%7.
0%13.
8%MarginsGrossprofitmargin65.
0%75.
3%75.
3%76.
0%76.
3%EBTmargin-9.
2%8.
5%10.
8%11.
4%12.
9%NetProfitMargin-7.
9%7.
9%8.
4%9.
1%11.
0%KeyRatiosROE(%)-8.
8%7.
2%7.
8%8.
6%10.
3%ROA(%)-3.
5%3.
2%3.
7%4.
2%5.
3%IncomeStatement(RMBmn)FY12FY13FY14EFY15EFY16ERevenue1,7651,6021,7741,9632,156Costofrevenue(619)(396)(438)(471)(511)Grossprofit1,1471,2061,3361,4921,645Selling&Marketingexpenses(1,154)(828)(841)(903)(940)Administrativeexpenses(217)(205)(227)(251)(263)R&Dexpenses(200)(233)(268)(308)(339)Otherincome,net260297290290280Fairvalueadjustmentsoninvestmentproperties611(5)(15)(35)Operatingprofit(103)239286306348Financeincome79111316Financeexpense(66)(111)(105)(95)(86)Associates&JVs00000EBT(162)137192224278Taxation(2)(17)(22)(22)(20)ProfitAfterTax(164)120170202258Minorityinterest247(21)(23)(20)NetProfit(140)127149179238EPS(0.
056)0.
0500.
0570.
0680.
091Source:Company,PSRKingdeeInt'lSoftware(268.
HK)6June2014Page|6PHILLIPRESEARCHSTOCKSELECTIONSYSTEMSWedonotbaseourrecommendationsentirelyontheabovequantitativereturnbands.
Weconsiderqualitativefactorslike(butnotlimitedto)astock'sriskrewardprofile,marketsentiment,recentrateofsharepriceappreciation,presenceorabsenceofstockpricecatalysts,andspeculativeundertonessurroundingthestock,beforemakingourfinalrecommendationGENERALDISCLAIMERThispublicationispreparedbyPhillipSecurities(HongKong)Ltd("PhillipSecurities").
Byreceivingorreadingthispublication,youagreetobeboundbythetermsandlimitationssetoutbelow.
Thispublicationshallnotbereproducedinwholeorinpart,distributedorpublishedbyyouforanypurpose.
PhillipSecuritiesshallnotbeliableforanydirectorconsequentiallossarisingfromanyuseofmaterialcontainedinthispublication.
TheinformationcontainedinthispublicationhasbeenobtainedfrompublicsourceswhichPhillipSecuritieshasnoreasontobelieveareunreliableandanyanalysis,forecasts,projections,expectationsandopinions(collectivelythe"Research")containedinthispublicationarebasedonsuchinformationandareexpressionsofbeliefonly.
PhillipSecuritieshasnotverifiedthisinformationandnorepresentationorwarranty,expressorimplied,ismadethatsuchinformationorResearchisaccurate,completeorverifiedorshouldberelieduponassuch.
AnysuchinformationorResearchcontainedinthispublicationissubjecttochange,andPhillipSecuritiesshallnothaveanyresponsibilitytomaintaintheinformationorResearchmadeavailableortosupplyanycorrections,updatesorreleasesinconnectiontherewith.
InnoeventwillPhillipSecuritiesbeliableforanyspecial,indirect,incidentalorconsequentialdamageswhichmaybeincurredfromtheuseoftheinformationorResearchmadeavailable,evenifithasbeenadvisedofthepossibilityofsuchdamages.
Anyopinions,forecasts,assumptions,estimates,valuationsandpricescontainedinthismaterialareasofthedateindicatedandaresubjecttochangeatanytimewithoutpriornotice.
Thismaterialisintendedforgeneralcirculationonlyanddoesnottakeintoaccountthespecificinvestmentobjectives,financialsituationorparticularneedsofanyparticularperson.
Theproductsmentionedinthismaterialmaynotbesuitableforallinvestorsandapersonreceivingorreadingthismaterialshouldseekadvicefromafinancialadviserregardingthesuitabilityofsuchproducts,takingintoaccountthespecificinvestmentobjectives,financialsituationorparticularneedsofthatperson,beforemakingacommitmenttoinvestinanyofsuchproducts.
Thispublicationshouldnotberelieduponasauthoritativewithoutfurtherbeingsubjecttotherecipient'sownindependentverificationandexerciseofjudgment.
Thefactthatthispublicationhasbeenmadeavailableconstitutesneitherarecommendationtoenterintoaparticulartransactionnorarepresentationthatanyproductdescribedinthismaterialissuitableorappropriatefortherecipient.
Recipientsshouldbeawarethatmanyoftheproductswhichmaybedescribedinthispublicationinvolvesignificantrisksandmaynotbesuitableforallinvestors,andthatanydecisiontoenterintotransactionsinvolvingsuchproductsshouldnotbemadeunlessallsuchrisksareunderstoodandanindependentdeterminationhasbeenmadethatsuchtransactionswouldbeappropriate.
Anydiscussionoftheriskscontainedhereinwithrespecttoanyproductshouldnotbeconsideredtobeadisclosureofallrisksoracompletediscussionofsuchrisks.
Nothinginthisreportshallbeconstruedtobeanofferorsolicitationforthepurchaseorsaleofasecurity.
Anydecisiontopurchasesecuritiesmentionedinthisresearchshouldtakeintoaccountexistingpublicinformation,includinganyregisteredprospectusinrespectofsuchsecurity.
DisclosureofInterestAnalystDisclosure:Neithertheanalyst(s)preparingthisreportnorhisassociatehasanyfinancialinterestinorservesasanofficerofthelistedcorporationcoveredinthisreport.
Firm'sDisclosure:PhillipSecuritiesdoesnothaveanyinvestmentbankingrelationshipwiththelistedcorporationcoveredinthisreportnoranyfinancialinterestof1%ormoreofthemarketcapitalizationinthelistedcorporation.
Inaddition,noexecutivestaffofPhillipSecuritiesservesasanofficerofthelistedcorporation.
AvailabilityTheinformation,toolsandmaterialpresentedhereinarenotdirected,intendedfordistributiontooruseby,anypersonorentityinanyjurisdictionorcountrywheresuchdistribution,publication,availabilityorusewouldbecontrarytotheapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectPhillipSecuritiestoanyregistrationorlicensingorotherrequirement,orpenaltyforcontraventionofsuchrequirementswithinsuchjurisdiction.
InformationcontainedhereinisbasedonsourcesthatPhillipSecurities(HongKong)Limited("PSHK")believedtobeaccurate.
PSHKdoesnotbearresponsibilityforanylossoccasionedbyrelianceplaceduponthecontentshereof.
PSHK(oritsaffiliatesoremployees)mayhavepositionsinrelevantinvestmentproducts.
Fordetailsofdifferentproduct'srisks,pleasevisittheRiskDisclosuresStatementonhttp://www.
phillip.
com.
hk.
2014PhillipSecurities(HongKong)LimitedTotalReturnRecommendationRatingRemarks>+20%Buy1>20%upsidefromthecurrentprice+5%to+20%Accumulate2+5%to+20%upsidefromthecurrentprice-5%to+5%Neutral3Tradewithin±5%fromthecurrentprice-5%to-20%Reduce4-5%to-20%downsidefromthecurrentprice20%downsidefromthecurrentpriceKingdeeInt'lSoftware(268.
HK)6June2014Page|7ContactInformation(RegionalMemberCompanies)SINGAPOREPhillipSecuritiesPteLtdRafflesCityTower250,NorthBridgeRoad#06-00Singapore179101Tel:(65)65336001Fax:(65)65356631Website:www.
poems.
com.
sgMALAYSIAPhillipCapitalManagementSdnBhdB-3-6BlockBLevel3MeganAvenueII,No.
12,JalanYapKwanSeng,50450KualaLumpurTel(603)21628841Fax(603)21665099Website:www.
poems.
com.
myHONGKONGPhillipSecurities(HK)LtdExchangeParticipantoftheStockExchangeofHongKong11/FUnitedCentre95QueenswayHongKongTel(852)22776600Fax(852)28685307Websites:www.
phillip.
com.
hkJAPANPhillipCapitalJapanK.
K.
Nagata-choBldg.
,8F,2-4-3Nagata-cho,Chiyoda-ku,Tokyo100-0014Tel(81-3)35953631Fax(81-3)35953630Website:www.
phillip.
co.
jpINDONESIAPTPhillipSecuritiesIndonesiaANZTowerLevel23B,JlJendSudirmanKav33AJakarta10220–IndonesiaTel(62-21)57900800Fax(62-21)57900809Website:www.
phillip.
co.
idCHINAPhillipFinancialAdvisory(Shanghai)Co.
LtdNo436HengfengRoad,GreentechUnit604,Postalcode200070Tel(86-21)51699400Fax(86-21)63532643Website:www.
phillip.
com.
cnTHAILANDPhillipSecurities(Thailand)PublicCo.
Ltd15thFloor,VorawatBuilding,849SilomRoad,Silom,Bangrak,Bangkok10500ThailandTel(66-2)6351700/22680999Fax(66-2)22680921Websitewww.
phillip.
co.
thFRANCEKing&ShaxsonCapitalLimited3rdFloor,35RuedelaBienfaisance75008ParisFranceTel(33-1)45633100Fax(33-1)45636017Website:www.
kingandshaxson.
comUNITEDKINGDOMKing&ShaxsonCapitalLimited6thFloor,CandlewickHouse,120CannonStreet,London,EC4N6ASTel(44-20)74265950Fax(44-20)76261757Website:www.
kingandshaxson.
comUNITEDSTATESPhillipFuturesInc141WJacksonBlvdSte3050TheChicagoBoardofTradeBuildingChicago,IL60604USATel+1.
312.
356.
9000Fax+1.
312.
356.
9005AUSTRALIAPhillipCapitalAustraliaLevel12,15WilliamStreet,Melbourne,Victoria3000,AustraliaTel(613)96188238Fax(613)92002272Website:www.
phillipcapital.
com.
au
HK))))CostcontrolmoreimportantthanrevenuegrowthHONGKONG|SOFTWARE|COMPANYANALYSISMaintainedatNeutralKingdee's2013turnoverwasRMB1.
602billion,down9.
3%yoy.
GrossprofitfortheyearwasRMB1.
206billion,raisedby5.
1%yoy.
OperatingprofitandprofitattributabletoshareholdersturnaroundtoprofitasRMB239millionandRMB126millionrespectively.
Benefitedfromrecentgovernmentpolicyonsupportingthesoftwareindustry,andtheconcernsforthenetworkinformationsecurity,Kingdee'srevenueonsoftwareandsolutionimplementationservicesareexpectedtoreturntogrowth.
ThecompanywastransformingitsbusinessfromtraditionalERPbusinesstocloudservice.
Inthefutureitwillincreaseinvestmentinthedevelopmentofcloudservices.
TheGroup'srevenuefromcorebusinesswasinsufficienttopayallcostsandexpenses.
Ontheotherhand,theimpactofgoodcostcontroltoprofitabilitymayhaveevenmoreimpressiveresultthantherevenueincrease.
WemaintainKingdee"neutral"rating,withbusinessvaluationofHK$2.
36pershareandcashvalueofHK$0.
41pershare,targetpriceHK$2.
77.
KingdeeInternationalSoftwareGroupCo.
,Ltd.
wasfoundedin1993,whichwasabusinessmanagementsoftwareandInternetserviceproviderthatservedoveronemillionSMEsinChinaandtheAsiaPacificregion.
Itsenterpriseresourceplanning(ERP)softwarewasaleadingbrandfortheSMEmarketinChina.
Otherproductsincludedcloudservices,Youshang.
com,Kuaidi100mobileplatformandapplication,middlewaresoftwarebusinessandKingdeemedicalandhealthcaresoftware.
FinancialHighlightsKingdee's2013turnoverwasRMB1.
602billion(asbelow),down9.
3%yoy.
Amongthatthesalesofsoftwarefellby11.
8%toRMB770million;therevenueofsoftwareimplementationserviceswasRMB431million,dropped11.
4%yoy;andsoftwaresolutionconsultingservicesandothersdecreasedslightlyby1.
1%toRMB400million.
Duetothedecreaseincostofsales,grossprofitfortheyearwasRMB1.
206billion,raisedby5.
1%yoy,whilethegrossprofitmarginalsoincreasedsignificantlyfrom65%to75.
3%.
OperatingprofitandprofitattributabletoshareholdersturnaroundtoprofitasRMB239millionandRMB126millionrespectively.
Inaddition,itssubsidiaryKingdeeChinaannouncedfinancialfiguresforthefirstquarterof2014,whichturnoverwasRMB274million,up6.
18%yoy,whilethenetlosswasRMB18.
98million,narrowedfrom2012'sRMB68.
32millionloss.
InvestmentActionInconclusion,thefinancialstatementsshowedquitenegativefigures,thatthecompany'scorebusinesswastemporarilyunabletorecordpositiveearnings.
WeexpectKingdeerevenuegrowthwillreturnthisyear,particularlyforitscloudbusiness.
However,ifthegroupcannoteffectivelycontrolitscostsandexpenses,particularlyforthesellingexpenseswhicharedirectlylinkedtoturnover,therevenuegrowthwillbeoffsetbyitsexpenses.
Therefore,wemaintainKingdee"neutral"rating,withbusinessvaluationofHK$2.
36pershareandcashvalueofHK$0.
41pershare,targetpriceHK$2.
77.
Businessvaluationis28xofthe2015forecastedearnings.
KINGDEEINTLSFTRating3.
00Neutral-PreviousRating3.
00NeutralTargetPrice(HKD)2.
77-PreviousTargetPrice(HKD)3ClosingPrice(HKD)2.
66ExpectedCapitalGains(%)4.
1%ExpectedDividendYield(%)0.
0%ExpectedTotalReturn(%)4.
1%MarketCap.
(HKDmn)6,815EnterpriseValue(HKDmn)7,5593MAverageDailyT/O(mn)39.
252weekrange(HKD)1.
28-3.
69ClosingPricein52weekrangeKeyFinancialSummaryFYEMARFY13FY14EFY15EFY16ERevenue(RMBmn)1,6021,7741,9632156NetProfit,reported(RMBmn)127149179238EPS,adj.
(HKDcents)6.
207.
078.
4311.
28P/E(X)42.
837.
831.
423.
6P/B(X)3.
13.
02.
72.
4DPS(RMBcents)0.
00.
00.
02.
2DivYield(%)0.
0%0.
0%0.
0%0.
8%Source:Bloomberg,PSRest.
ValuationMethodPEResearchAnalystKayNgkayng@phillip.
com.
hk+852227767510%50%100%0204060801001201401601800.
000.
501.
001.
502.
002.
503.
003.
504.
00Jun-13Aug-13Oct-13Dec-13Feb-14Apr-14Jun-14Volume,mn(RHS)268.
HKEquity(LHS)HSI(LHS)0%50%100%KingdeeInt'lSoftware(268.
HK)6June2014Page|2Underthegovernmentsupportivepolicies,turnoverisexpectedtoreturntogrowthAsubsidiaryofKingdeewasrecognizedas"2013-2014nationalimportantsoftwareenterprises"andwasentitledtomaintainpreferentialenterpriseincometaxrateof10%.
Inaddition,theCompanywashonoredas"TheNo1MarketShareLeaderinChina'sSMEMarket"byIDCforthenineconsecutiveyears,whichindicateditsstrongrecognitioninthemainlandmarket.
Earlylastmonth,PRCGovernmentprohibitedthestatedepartmentsfrominstallationofMicrosoft'sWindows8operatingsystem.
Also,theGovernmentwasconsideringtheimpactonthenationalinformationsecurityofIBMserversandthusencouragingcommercialbankstoswitchtodomesticservers.
TherewasalsomarketnewsonGovernment'sscheduleonimplementationofinternetsecurityexaminationsystemtosafeguardthenationalnetworksecurity.
Benefitedfromrecentgovernmentpolicyonsupportingthesoftwareindustry,andtheaboveseriesofactionsforthenetworkinformationsecurity,Kingdee'srevenueonsoftwareandsolutionimplementationservicesareexpectedtoreturntogrowth.
Fig1Fig1Fig1Fig1RevenueMixEstimateRevenueMixEstimateRevenueMixEstimateRevenueMixEstimateSource:PSR,CompanyreportsCloudservicesstartedtoplayanimportantroleAccordingtotheGroup'smanagement,thecompanywastransformingitsbusinessfromtraditionalERPbusinesstocloudservice.
InthefutureitwillincreaseinvestmentinthedevelopmentofcloudservicesinordertoattractInternetusersinadditiontocorporatecustomers.
Cloudserviceiscurrentlyonlyconsistedof4%ofthetotalrevenue,whichisexpectedtoturnintohalfin2018,thesameasthetraditionalERPbusiness.
InMarch,thecompanyhadsetupamobileservicesplatform"BizChat"fortheVankeGroup,justsimilarto"theenterpriseWeChat".
IthadalsoactivelyworkingwithmajorInternetgiants.
Currently,Kingdee's"Kuaidi100"andBaiducarriesoutaseriesofcooperationinmobileservices,anditsfinancialsoftwareworkswithAlibaba'sTaobaotoprovideintegratedTaobao,TmallandAlipaydataservicestosellers.
FortheInternetfinancing,theGroupiscurrentlyplanningtocooperatewithmajorbankgroupstodevelopamobileapplicationtohelptheirbankcustomersinwealthmanagement.
KingdeeInt'lSoftware(268.
HK)6June2014Page|3CorerevenuewasnotenoughtocoverthecostsandexpendituresDespitethelossturnaroundintoprofit,revenueandexpenditurestructureshowedthattheGroup'srevenuefromcorebusinesswasinsufficienttopayallcostsandexpenses.
WhiletheannualturnoverwasRMB1.
602billion,thetotalcostplusexpensesreachedRMB1.
662billion,aRMB60milliongap.
Thoughitalreadynarrowedfromthegapsin2011and2012,asRMB235millionandRMB424millionrespectively.
Infact,thecompanyhadjuststartedtochangeitsdistributionmodel,makingsellingandmarketingexpensesdroppedsignificantlyby28.
2%yoytoRMB828million.
Sellingexpensestorevenueratiofellfrom65.
4%to51.
7%.
However,itwasstillaccountedformorethanhalfofthecompany'srevenuewhichwouldprobablyhadnegativeimpactonthefutureprofit.
Ontheotherhand,theimpactofgoodcostcontroltoprofitabilitymayhaveevenmoreimpressiveresultthantherevenueincrease.
Fig2Fig2Fig2Fig2CostsCostsCostsCoststotototorevenueestimatrevenueestimatrevenueestimatrevenueestimatesesesesSource:PSR,CompanyreportFig3Fig3Fig3Fig3CostsaspercentageofrevenueestimatesCostsaspercentageofrevenueestimatesCostsaspercentageofrevenueestimatesCostsaspercentageofrevenueestimatesSource:PSR,CompanyreportCurrentlytheGroupreliedonlyonnoncoreincome,suchasinvestmentonpropertiestomaintainprofitability.
Thoughthecorebusinessisexpectedtobreakeventhisyear,significantpositiveearningsoncorebusinessmayonlyappearin2016orlater.
Alsonotethat,sincetheatmosphereofthemainlandpropertymarketisnolongerpositive,ifthereisasubstantialadjustmentonthepropertyprice,itmaycausethefairvalueoftheGroup'spropertiestoreduceandthustheearnings.
KingdeeInt'lSoftware(268.
HK)6June2014Page|4Financialexpensesincreasedsignificantlyby67.
9%yoytoRMB111millionlastyear,mainlyastheinterestexpenseduetoincreaseincurrentliabilities.
Withstabilizedcurrentliabilitiesandobviousdecreaseinnon-currentliabilities,theinterestexpensewillgraduallyreduce.
Besides,theGroupkeepsinissuingconvertiblebonds,andgrantingstockoptionstoitsemployeesthroughshare-basedbonusscheme,theremaybringdilutiveeffecttothestockinthefuture.
ValuationInconclusion,thefinancialstatementsshowedquitenegativefigures,thatthecompany'scorebusinesswastemporarilyunabletorecordpositiveearnings.
WeexpectKingdeerevenuegrowthwillreturnthisyear,particularlyforitscloudbusiness.
However,ifthegroupcannoteffectivelycontrolitscostsandexpenses,particularlyforthesellingexpenseswhicharedirectlylinkedtoturnover,therevenuegrowthwillbeoffsetbyitsexpenses.
Therefore,wemaintainKingdee"neutral"rating,withbusinessvaluationofHK$2.
36pershareandcashvalueofHK$0.
41pershare,targetpriceHK$2.
77.
Businessvaluationis28xofthe2015forecastedearnings.
PotentialRisksThegrowthonCloudbusinessisnotasexpected;Costuncontrolled;Thedilutiveeffectfromstockoptionsandconvertiblebonds.
KingdeeInt'lSoftware(268.
HK)6June2014Page|5FY12FY13FY14EFY15EFY16EValuationRatiosP/E(X)(38.
5)42.
837.
831.
423.
6P/B(X)3.
43.
13.
02.
72.
4EV/EBITDA(X)(73.
4)31.
726.
424.
721.
7DividendYield(%)0.
0%0.
0%0.
0%0.
0%0.
8%Persharedata(HKD)EPS(0.
07)0.
060.
070.
080.
11DPS0.
000.
000.
000.
000.
02BVPS0.
780.
860.
900.
991.
10OutstandingShares(basic,mn)2,516.
342,523.
742,621.
802,621.
802,621.
80Growth&Margins(%)GrowthRevenue-12.
7%-9.
3%10.
7%10.
7%9.
8%EBIT-154.
1%-331.
8%19.
8%7.
0%13.
8%MarginsGrossprofitmargin65.
0%75.
3%75.
3%76.
0%76.
3%EBTmargin-9.
2%8.
5%10.
8%11.
4%12.
9%NetProfitMargin-7.
9%7.
9%8.
4%9.
1%11.
0%KeyRatiosROE(%)-8.
8%7.
2%7.
8%8.
6%10.
3%ROA(%)-3.
5%3.
2%3.
7%4.
2%5.
3%IncomeStatement(RMBmn)FY12FY13FY14EFY15EFY16ERevenue1,7651,6021,7741,9632,156Costofrevenue(619)(396)(438)(471)(511)Grossprofit1,1471,2061,3361,4921,645Selling&Marketingexpenses(1,154)(828)(841)(903)(940)Administrativeexpenses(217)(205)(227)(251)(263)R&Dexpenses(200)(233)(268)(308)(339)Otherincome,net260297290290280Fairvalueadjustmentsoninvestmentproperties611(5)(15)(35)Operatingprofit(103)239286306348Financeincome79111316Financeexpense(66)(111)(105)(95)(86)Associates&JVs00000EBT(162)137192224278Taxation(2)(17)(22)(22)(20)ProfitAfterTax(164)120170202258Minorityinterest247(21)(23)(20)NetProfit(140)127149179238EPS(0.
056)0.
0500.
0570.
0680.
091Source:Company,PSRKingdeeInt'lSoftware(268.
HK)6June2014Page|6PHILLIPRESEARCHSTOCKSELECTIONSYSTEMSWedonotbaseourrecommendationsentirelyontheabovequantitativereturnbands.
Weconsiderqualitativefactorslike(butnotlimitedto)astock'sriskrewardprofile,marketsentiment,recentrateofsharepriceappreciation,presenceorabsenceofstockpricecatalysts,andspeculativeundertonessurroundingthestock,beforemakingourfinalrecommendationGENERALDISCLAIMERThispublicationispreparedbyPhillipSecurities(HongKong)Ltd("PhillipSecurities").
Byreceivingorreadingthispublication,youagreetobeboundbythetermsandlimitationssetoutbelow.
Thispublicationshallnotbereproducedinwholeorinpart,distributedorpublishedbyyouforanypurpose.
PhillipSecuritiesshallnotbeliableforanydirectorconsequentiallossarisingfromanyuseofmaterialcontainedinthispublication.
TheinformationcontainedinthispublicationhasbeenobtainedfrompublicsourceswhichPhillipSecuritieshasnoreasontobelieveareunreliableandanyanalysis,forecasts,projections,expectationsandopinions(collectivelythe"Research")containedinthispublicationarebasedonsuchinformationandareexpressionsofbeliefonly.
PhillipSecuritieshasnotverifiedthisinformationandnorepresentationorwarranty,expressorimplied,ismadethatsuchinformationorResearchisaccurate,completeorverifiedorshouldberelieduponassuch.
AnysuchinformationorResearchcontainedinthispublicationissubjecttochange,andPhillipSecuritiesshallnothaveanyresponsibilitytomaintaintheinformationorResearchmadeavailableortosupplyanycorrections,updatesorreleasesinconnectiontherewith.
InnoeventwillPhillipSecuritiesbeliableforanyspecial,indirect,incidentalorconsequentialdamageswhichmaybeincurredfromtheuseoftheinformationorResearchmadeavailable,evenifithasbeenadvisedofthepossibilityofsuchdamages.
Anyopinions,forecasts,assumptions,estimates,valuationsandpricescontainedinthismaterialareasofthedateindicatedandaresubjecttochangeatanytimewithoutpriornotice.
Thismaterialisintendedforgeneralcirculationonlyanddoesnottakeintoaccountthespecificinvestmentobjectives,financialsituationorparticularneedsofanyparticularperson.
Theproductsmentionedinthismaterialmaynotbesuitableforallinvestorsandapersonreceivingorreadingthismaterialshouldseekadvicefromafinancialadviserregardingthesuitabilityofsuchproducts,takingintoaccountthespecificinvestmentobjectives,financialsituationorparticularneedsofthatperson,beforemakingacommitmenttoinvestinanyofsuchproducts.
Thispublicationshouldnotberelieduponasauthoritativewithoutfurtherbeingsubjecttotherecipient'sownindependentverificationandexerciseofjudgment.
Thefactthatthispublicationhasbeenmadeavailableconstitutesneitherarecommendationtoenterintoaparticulartransactionnorarepresentationthatanyproductdescribedinthismaterialissuitableorappropriatefortherecipient.
Recipientsshouldbeawarethatmanyoftheproductswhichmaybedescribedinthispublicationinvolvesignificantrisksandmaynotbesuitableforallinvestors,andthatanydecisiontoenterintotransactionsinvolvingsuchproductsshouldnotbemadeunlessallsuchrisksareunderstoodandanindependentdeterminationhasbeenmadethatsuchtransactionswouldbeappropriate.
Anydiscussionoftheriskscontainedhereinwithrespecttoanyproductshouldnotbeconsideredtobeadisclosureofallrisksoracompletediscussionofsuchrisks.
Nothinginthisreportshallbeconstruedtobeanofferorsolicitationforthepurchaseorsaleofasecurity.
Anydecisiontopurchasesecuritiesmentionedinthisresearchshouldtakeintoaccountexistingpublicinformation,includinganyregisteredprospectusinrespectofsuchsecurity.
DisclosureofInterestAnalystDisclosure:Neithertheanalyst(s)preparingthisreportnorhisassociatehasanyfinancialinterestinorservesasanofficerofthelistedcorporationcoveredinthisreport.
Firm'sDisclosure:PhillipSecuritiesdoesnothaveanyinvestmentbankingrelationshipwiththelistedcorporationcoveredinthisreportnoranyfinancialinterestof1%ormoreofthemarketcapitalizationinthelistedcorporation.
Inaddition,noexecutivestaffofPhillipSecuritiesservesasanofficerofthelistedcorporation.
AvailabilityTheinformation,toolsandmaterialpresentedhereinarenotdirected,intendedfordistributiontooruseby,anypersonorentityinanyjurisdictionorcountrywheresuchdistribution,publication,availabilityorusewouldbecontrarytotheapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectPhillipSecuritiestoanyregistrationorlicensingorotherrequirement,orpenaltyforcontraventionofsuchrequirementswithinsuchjurisdiction.
InformationcontainedhereinisbasedonsourcesthatPhillipSecurities(HongKong)Limited("PSHK")believedtobeaccurate.
PSHKdoesnotbearresponsibilityforanylossoccasionedbyrelianceplaceduponthecontentshereof.
PSHK(oritsaffiliatesoremployees)mayhavepositionsinrelevantinvestmentproducts.
Fordetailsofdifferentproduct'srisks,pleasevisittheRiskDisclosuresStatementonhttp://www.
phillip.
com.
hk.
2014PhillipSecurities(HongKong)LimitedTotalReturnRecommendationRatingRemarks>+20%Buy1>20%upsidefromthecurrentprice+5%to+20%Accumulate2+5%to+20%upsidefromthecurrentprice-5%to+5%Neutral3Tradewithin±5%fromthecurrentprice-5%to-20%Reduce4-5%to-20%downsidefromthecurrentprice20%downsidefromthecurrentpriceKingdeeInt'lSoftware(268.
HK)6June2014Page|7ContactInformation(RegionalMemberCompanies)SINGAPOREPhillipSecuritiesPteLtdRafflesCityTower250,NorthBridgeRoad#06-00Singapore179101Tel:(65)65336001Fax:(65)65356631Website:www.
poems.
com.
sgMALAYSIAPhillipCapitalManagementSdnBhdB-3-6BlockBLevel3MeganAvenueII,No.
12,JalanYapKwanSeng,50450KualaLumpurTel(603)21628841Fax(603)21665099Website:www.
poems.
com.
myHONGKONGPhillipSecurities(HK)LtdExchangeParticipantoftheStockExchangeofHongKong11/FUnitedCentre95QueenswayHongKongTel(852)22776600Fax(852)28685307Websites:www.
phillip.
com.
hkJAPANPhillipCapitalJapanK.
K.
Nagata-choBldg.
,8F,2-4-3Nagata-cho,Chiyoda-ku,Tokyo100-0014Tel(81-3)35953631Fax(81-3)35953630Website:www.
phillip.
co.
jpINDONESIAPTPhillipSecuritiesIndonesiaANZTowerLevel23B,JlJendSudirmanKav33AJakarta10220–IndonesiaTel(62-21)57900800Fax(62-21)57900809Website:www.
phillip.
co.
idCHINAPhillipFinancialAdvisory(Shanghai)Co.
LtdNo436HengfengRoad,GreentechUnit604,Postalcode200070Tel(86-21)51699400Fax(86-21)63532643Website:www.
phillip.
com.
cnTHAILANDPhillipSecurities(Thailand)PublicCo.
Ltd15thFloor,VorawatBuilding,849SilomRoad,Silom,Bangrak,Bangkok10500ThailandTel(66-2)6351700/22680999Fax(66-2)22680921Websitewww.
phillip.
co.
thFRANCEKing&ShaxsonCapitalLimited3rdFloor,35RuedelaBienfaisance75008ParisFranceTel(33-1)45633100Fax(33-1)45636017Website:www.
kingandshaxson.
comUNITEDKINGDOMKing&ShaxsonCapitalLimited6thFloor,CandlewickHouse,120CannonStreet,London,EC4N6ASTel(44-20)74265950Fax(44-20)76261757Website:www.
kingandshaxson.
comUNITEDSTATESPhillipFuturesInc141WJacksonBlvdSte3050TheChicagoBoardofTradeBuildingChicago,IL60604USATel+1.
312.
356.
9000Fax+1.
312.
356.
9005AUSTRALIAPhillipCapitalAustraliaLevel12,15WilliamStreet,Melbourne,Victoria3000,AustraliaTel(613)96188238Fax(613)92002272Website:www.
phillipcapital.
com.
au
- consecutivebaidu相关文档
- VOLwww
- www.baidu.com.cn给几个好一点的学习网站
- 证券www
RAKsmart推出7.59美元/月，云服务器产品Cloud Server，KVM架构1核1G内存40G硬盘1M带宽基础配置
近期RAKsmart上线云服务器Cloud Server产品，KVM架构1核1G内存40G硬盘1M带宽基础配置7.59美元/月！RAKsmart云服务器Cloud Server位于美国硅谷机房，下单可选DIY各项配置，VPC网络/经典网络，大陆优化/精品网线路，1-1000Mbps带宽，支持Linux或者Windows操作系统，提供Snap和Backup。RAKsmart机房是一家成立于2012年...
桔子数据58元/月 ，Cera美西云服务器 2核4G 50G数据盘 500M带宽 1000G流量
桔子数据（徐州铭联信息科技有限公司）成立于2020年，是国内领先的互联网业务平台服务提供商。公司专注为用户提供低价高性能云计算产品，致力于云计算应用的易用性开发，并引导云计算在国内普及。目前公司研发以及运营云服务基础设施服务平台（IaaS），面向全球客户提供基于云计算的IT解决方案与客户服务，拥有丰富的国内BGP、双线高防、香港等优质的IDC资源。 公司一直秉承”以人为本、客户为尊、永...
个人网站备案流程及注意事项（内容方向和适用主机商）
如今我们还有在做个人网站吗？随着自媒体和短视频的发展和兴起，包括我们很多WEB2.0产品的延续，当然也包括个人建站市场的低迷和用户关注的不同，有些个人已经不在做网站。但是，由于我们有些朋友出于网站的爱好或者说是有些项目还是基于PC端网站的，还是有网友抱有信心的，比如我们看到有一些老牌个人网站依旧在运行，且还有新网站的出现。今天在这篇文章中谈谈有网友问关于个人网站备案的问题。这个也是前几天有他在选择...
www.baidu.com.cn为你推荐
-
快递打印快递单上是怎么打印上去的，我每次都是手写的flash导航条谁来帮我看看这样的flash导航条 下面的页面该怎么设计伪静态伪静态和真静态哪种静态方式好网站联盟网盟跟b2b平台有什么区别ejb开发EJB是什么?mate8价格现在买华为mate8高配划算吗三星s8什么时候上市三星s8什么时候上市 三星s8上市时间微信电话本怎么用微信电话本怎么使用呀，我的电话号码是存在手机里面，用这个软件就读取不了电话，我是第一次使用微信电话本怎么用如何启用微信通讯录声母是什么什么是声母