欧洲groupon模式

『Contents』Bank(银行)4IntroducingWallStreet'snewrainmakers4华尔街银行巨头高层大洗牌5ChineseLeaderBlastsBanks5温家宝抨击国有银行垄断局面7InAsia,FickleMillionairesVexBanks9亚洲富豪"薄情寡义"银行很受伤10ObscureBanksFindProfitsInIranTrade11小银行从西方强化对伊朗制裁中获益12CostsHobbleBanks'Profits13成本上升拖累美国银行业利润15PuttheWorldinWorldBank16把世界银行还给世界17EconomicAnalysis(经济分析)18Soros:EuroCrisisIsLethal,ABreakUpIsPossible18索罗斯:债务危机会"毒杀"欧元区19Stiglitz&Greenwald:AlanGreenspanWasNoGenius,HeWasIrrelevant20诺贝尔得主:格林斯潘不是天才,其政策"一点用都没有"21SubprimeLendingIsBack,AndThat'sNotSuchABadThing22次贷再度兴起,未必就是坏事23NoDeal.
Whyyoushouldn'tbelievethetheorybehindGroupon'sbusinessmodel.
24没戏.
为什么你不该轻信Groupon模式背后的理论.
26Charlemagne:Stillsickly27欧元区,病未痊愈28America'sJOBSAct——Uncuffingcapitalism29美国的JOBS法案——为资本主义松绑31Investment(投资)32GoldBecomesPricierThanPlatinum,That'sRareAndScary32黄金价超铂金,岂有此理33Gold'sDecade-LongBullRunIsDead,GartmanSays34黄金十年大牛市已然终结35WhyChinaLovesGold36中国人为什么喜欢买黄金37India'sGoldImportsSetToResume37印度金店罢工结束黄金进口将恢复38Thenextlegofgold'sbullrun39金价仍会上涨的几点理由40GoldShinesOn41投机性需求减弱之际实物黄金需求依然强劲42FinancialTime(金融时报)43ChinaYuanInchesCloserToGlobalCurrency43人民币离国际化还有两年44Sino-ForestSeeksCourtProtection44嘉汉林业就整体出售或重组寻求保护45ShanghaiCracksDoorOpenforHedgeFunds46Pimco高管:人民币仍处在升值初期阶段46Eurozoneministersboostfirewallto$1tn47欧元区财长将防火墙设定为1万亿欧元49MoreStepsConsideredinPushtoOpenYuan50中国考虑建立中资企业离岸人民币贷款机制51FushiShakesOffMuddyWatersReport52浑水研究报告未损傅氏科普威股价53BuffettFeastsOnGoldmanScraps53高盛亏本甩卖贷款资产巴菲特接盘54InvestorsSmellMudinTheWaterFushiTumbles55做空机构"浑水"威力不再56Stock(股票)57CanTheStockMarketSoarWithIcarusWings57美股现见顶之迹59GoogleQ1RevsInLine;EPSEdgesStreet;SetsOdd2-For-1Split;ShrRise61谷歌宣布拆股,旨在保住创始人大权63Thanks,China:AnalystsSlaps$1000PriceTargetonAppleStock64苹果目标股价破1,000美元多亏中国65Stocks,CommoditiesNosediveOnEuropeanWoes:DailyMarketsWrap66欧洲灾难导致股市和大宗商品暴跌66NewEuropeWoesHitStocks67欧债危机担忧再起国际金融市场重挫68StocksEndFive-DaySkid70美股反弹结束连续五个交易日下跌局面71GlobalIPOsBoostedByPrivateEquityAsMarketsRecover-Survey72调查:私募股权投资公司助推全球IPO交易72Emerging-MarketStocksSputter73新兴市场股市涨势受阻74Seeking'Second'LifeAfterFacebook75美二级市场股票交易来到十字路口77Fund(基金)78Eurozoneministersagree500bninnewbailoutfunds78欧元区国家财长再增5000亿元稳定基金79Shouldprivateequityloweritshurdles80私募股权基金应降低最低回报率吗81IPOscloseoutbannerquarter81美国IPO市场一季度完美收官82Bond(债券)82TepidSaleAddstoSpain'sWoes82西班牙国债拍卖结果凸显欧债乏人问津困境83BlackRock'sStreetShortcut84贝莱德拟出新平台绕过券商直接交易85PrivateDebtWillLikelyWeighonGrowthforYears86欧洲经济增长难以摆脱私人债务重压88Bank(银行)IntroducingWallStreet'snewrainmakersWallStreetbanksappeartohavefinallydecidedit'stimeforchange.
Anewcropofinvestmentbankersareontherise.
ThereareabunchofnewbuttstokissonWallStreet.
InthepastfewmonthsnearlyeveryWallStreetfirmhasnamedanewheadofeitheritsentireinvestmentbankoroneofitskeybusinesses.
Twobigbanks,GoldmanSachs(GS)andCitigroup(C),havemadesignificantchangestotheirboardsofdirectors.
GermanfinancialgiantDeutscheBankhasrecentlyoverhauleditsentiremanagementranksfollowingthepromotionofitsheadofinvestmentbanking,AnshuJain,toco-CEO.
"It'sunusualtohavethismanychangesatthetopofinvestmentbankingorganizations,"saysWallStreetrecruiterRussGerson.
"TherehasbeenafundamentallysignificantchangegoingonWallStreet.
"Sofarthisyear,BankofAmerica(BAC),Deutsche,CreditSuisseandUBShaveallnamednewheadsoftheirinvestmentbanks.
Citigrouphasshakenupitslaggingmergersandacquisitionbynamingaco-headofthatdivision.
Thatbankalsohasanewchairmanofitsboard,MichaelE.
O'Neill.
HongKong-basedHSBCalsohasanewheadofitsmergerspractice.
FrenchbankSocieteGeneral,whichlastyearwasdoggedbyrumorsthatitmightneedabailout,reportedlyhasanentirenewteamofbankersrunningitsinvestmentbank.
GoldmanhasalsomadesomechangesinEurope,withanewheadofso-calledfinancingandcapitalmarketsintheregion.
Andit'snotjustthelargeglobalbanksthatwerebatteredbythefinancialcrisischanginguptheirmanagement.
EduardoMestre,whohadheadedupU.
S.
investmentbankingatboutiquefirmEvercore,saidhewasgivinguptheroleinlateFebruary.
Evercorehasyettonamehisreplacement.
WallStreetrecruiterssaytherearealotofreasonsforthemanagementshuffleonWallStreet.
Firstofall,itwasoverdue.
WhilenearlyeverybankfireditsCEOduringthefinancialcrisisorleadinguptoit,manyinvestmentbankingchiefswereabletohangon.
Now,withtheprospectofnewbusinessforWallStreetgrowingwithastockmarketthathasbeenrisinguntilrecently,thoseexecutivesarebeingpushedout,ormovingonaswell.
ThenewappointmentsalsolikelymarkashiftonWallStreet.
Formuchofthepastdecade,banksmademuchoftheirmoneyfromunderwritingandtradingdebt.
Bythemid-2000s,debttradersandbankersfromthefirm'sbonddivisionscametorunmanyofthebusinessesatfinancialfirms.
Thatreignappearstobeover.
Theworldappearstobeoverleveragedalready.
AndDodd-Frankandotherregulationsaremakingittougherforbankstogeneratealotofincomefromtrading.
What'smore,debttradersdidn'tturnouttobethebestatmanagingWallStreet'srisks.
"Thefixed-incometakeoverofWallStreetwasabloodydisaster,"saystopWallStreetrecruiterRolfeKopelan,whoheadsuptheCapstonePartnership.
RecruitersalsosaydisappointingbonusesandageneralfeelingongloomonWallStreethavecausedsomebankerstocallitquits.
SomerecruiterssayeventopWallStreetbankersarefeelingstrapped.
"Partofmytheoryisthatthesepeoplehavecashflowandliquidityproblems,"saysJohnOwens,whorunsCREWAdvisoryServices,whichspecializesinrecruitingforWallStreetfirms.
"AnumberofbankershaverecentlytoldmeIneedXtocovermybills.
Ihaveneverheardthatbefore.
"OneexampleofthosebeingelevatedisColinFan.
Fan,39,whotookoverasco-headofinvestmentbankingatDeutsche,istheyoungestofWallStreet'snewleadershipcrop.
Evenso,FandoescomefromthedebtsideofWallStreet.
ButtheCanadian-born,Chinesebanker,whoisbasedinLondon,hasspentagooddealoftimeworkingintheemergingmarketsaswell.
Beforethepromotion,FanranadivisionofDeutschethatgenerated$3.
5billioninrevenueayear.
ArecentarticleinatradepublicationcalledFan"oneofthemostpromisinginvestmentbankersofhisgeneration.
"华尔街银行巨头高层大洗牌看来华尔街的银行巨头们这回终于下定决心要改革了,而第一步就是换将,一批新的投资银行家借着这股东风,正在扶摇直上.

华尔街新晋权贵开始粉墨登场.
过去几个月里,几乎每家华尔街大行都任命了新的投行或其他核心业务的主管.
高盛(GoldmanSachs)和花旗(Citigroup)这两家大行对董事会人员作出了大幅调整.
德国金融巨头德意志银行(DeutscheBank)近日在将投行业务主管安舒贾恩擢升为公司联席首席执行官之后,又对整个管理层进行了大调整.

"投行高层纷纷换将并不寻常,"华尔街猎头罗斯吉尔森称.
"华尔街正在经历根本性的重大变革.
"今年迄今为止,美国银行(BankofAmerica)、德意志银行、瑞士信贷(CreditSuisse)和瑞士银行(UBS)都已任命了各自投行业务的新主管.
花旗重整拖后腿的并购业务部,为该部门新任命了一名联席主管.
该行还有一位新的董事会主席迈克尔奥尼尔到任.
总部位于香港的汇丰银行(HSBC)也任命了新的并购业务主管.
法国兴业银行(SocieteGeneral)去年曾受到传言拖累,称它已经沦落到需要救助的地步.
如今,据报道其投资银行业务也已开始由一个全新的银行家团队打理.
高盛在欧洲也进行了一些调整,任命了该地区被称为融资和资本市场业务的新主管.
而且,这波银行高管人事变动潮并非仅限于受到金融危机打击的大型国际银行.
在独立投行Evercore担任美国投行部门负责人的埃杜尔多米斯特里2月末宣布将离职.
迄今Evercore都没有宣布他的继任者人选.

华尔街猎头们表示,华尔街高管大洗牌原因有很多.
首先,早就该这么干了.
虽然几乎每家华尔街大行都在金融危机期间或之前解雇了首席执行官,但很多投行业务主管却得以幸免.
如今,随着股市上涨,华尔街的新型业务前景上升,这些高管要么被解职,要么另谋高就.

这些新的人员任命可能也标志着华尔街业务重心的转移.
上个十年的大部分时间里,华尔街银行的很多利润来自于债券承销和交易.
到2005年左右,债券交易员和来自银行债券业务部门的银行家们开始掌管金融机构大量的业务部门.
这种统治看来已经终结.
整个世界早已过度杠杆化了.
而且《多德-弗兰克法案》(Dodd-Frank)等监管规定增加了银行通过交易赚取大量利润的难度.
另外,债券交易员们也并没有证明,自己就是管理华尔街风险的最佳人选.
CapstonePartnership的负责人、华尔街头号猎头拉尔夫科普兰称:"固定收益人员把持华尔街是场血腥灾难.
"猎头们还表示,令人失望的奖金以及普遍对华尔街前景感觉沮丧也促使一些银行家退出.
一些猎头表示,即便是华尔街一流的银行家也感到了手头拮据.
"我的一部分观点是这些人的现金流和流动性都出现了问题,"专为华尔街公司提供猎头服务的CREWAdvisoryServices的负责人约翰欧文表示.
"很多银行家最近告诉我,我需要X来帮我付账单.
过去我可从来没听到过这样的话.
"获得升职的案例包括范昆仑.
现年39岁的范昆仑被任命为德意志银行投行业务联席主管,成为华尔街新晋领导层中最年轻的一员.
而且,范昆仑还是债券业务出身.
这位在加拿大长大的华裔银行家目前常驻伦敦,工作的很大一部分时间都放在新兴市场上.
获得升职前,范昆仑在德意志银行管理的部门创造的年营收达到了35亿美元.
某行业出版物近期一篇文章将范昆仑称为"他这一代最前途无量的投资银行家之一".

ChineseLeaderBlastsBanksChinesePremierWenJiabaotoldanationalaudienceonTuesdaythatChina'sstate-controlledbanksarea'monopoly'thatmustbebrokenup,inabluntappealforashake-upofthecreakyfinancialsystemoftheworld'sNo.
2economy.
Inaneveningbroadcastonstate-runChinaNationalRadio,Mr.
WentoldanaudienceofbusinessleadersthatChina'stightlycontrolledbankingsystemneedstochange.
'Letmebefrank.
Ourbanksearnprofittooeasily.
WhyBecauseasmallnumberoflargebankshaveamonopoly,'saidMr.
Wen,accordingtothetranscriptoftheprogramonthebroadcaster'swebsite.
'Tobreakthemonopoly,wemustallowprivatecapitaltoflowintothefinancesector.
'Mr.
Wen'scommentstapintoarichveinofpopularangeragainstChina'sbiggestbanksthathasbeenbuildinginrecentmonthsonlineandinthemedia.
Thebacklashwasinitiallypromptedbyfrustrationatwhathasbeenperceivedasbanks'paymentsoflowinterestratesondepositsandindiscriminatelevyingoffees.
Ithasworsenedinrecentweeksaslenderspostedrecordprofits,evenastheeconomyslowsandsomecompaniesstruggletoaccesscredit.
Mr.
Wen'spushispartofabroadersetofissuesoverChina'sgrowth,andcameonthesamedaythatBeijingunveiledprogramsintendedtosupportthedevelopmentofthecountry'scapitalmarketsandtospreadinternationaluseoftheyuan.
Amongthem,China'ssecurityregulatorsaiditwouldmorethantripletheamountthatforeignerswouldbeallowedtoinvestinChina'sheavilyrestrictedfinancialmarketsto$80billion.
Mr.
Wenformallycameintoofficein2003withareputationasareformerbuthasacknowledgedpubliclyhisregretsthathedidn'tgofarenough.
Mr.
Wenisexpectedtostepdowninaonce-a-decadeleadershipchangethatbeginslatethisyear.
Thecountry'seconomicexpansionissettoslowincomingyearsafterracingaheadatatorridpaceoverthepastdecade,raisingquestionsoverwhetherChinacanswitchfromamodelbasedonexportsandinvestmenttoonethatreliesmoreonarisingconsumerculture.
ThathasledtoanationwideconversationoverChina'stightgriponitsfinancialsystem,whichfavorsbigstate-ownedfirmsbuthasbeencriticizedbyeconomistsandevensomereformersinChinaforimpedingmorebalancedgrowth.
ManyinChinanowbelieveacrisiswillcomewithouteconomicreform.
Mr.
Wen'sremarks,intheexport-orientedprovinceofFujian,arefurtherindicationthatlong-delayedeconomicreformisnowatleastatopicforpublicdebate.
HiscommentschallengeawidespreadassumptionthatreformwillhavetowaitforyearsuntilthenewleadershipunderXiJinping,China'sdesignatednextpartychief,isinstalledandhasestablishedapowerbaseandcementedallegiances.
Torealizetheeconomictransformation,'privatecompaniesshouldbeencouragedtogetintothefinancial-servicesindustry,'saidFangXinghai,director-generalofShanghaiMunicipalFinancialServicesOfficeandaformerWorldBankeconomist,inaninterviewatChina'sBoaoForumforAsiathisweek.
Fordecades,China'seconomicgrowthhasreliedtoalargeextentonthecaptivesavingsofordinaryChinesemovedatcheapratestostate-ownedenterprises.
Thesystempenalizessaversandrewardsborrowers,perpetuatinganeconomicimbalancemarkedbyhighratesofinvestmentandsuppressedconsumption.
Thatmodelisincreasinglyseenasunsustainable.
Tolifttheeconomy,manyeconomistsbelieveChinamustnowtransfermoremoneytoconsumersandaiditsservicesector,whichisbasedonprivateenterprise.
SomeeconomistsarguethatlowinterestratesarepartlyaconsequenceofChina'seffortstokeepitscurrencyundervalued.
Thecentralbankfearsthathigherrateswouldattractspeculativecapital,fuelinginflation.
Meanwhile,criticssaythattheBigFourstatebankshavegrownbloatedandcomplacentbylivingofftheguaranteedspreadbetweendepositandlendingrates,currentlyataroundthreepercentagepoints.
Criticssayithasimpededinnovationinproductsandservices,andencouragedlendingtostate-ownedenterprisesthathasanimplicitgovernmentguarantee.
Theeffectisthatmanyprivatecompanies,themaingeneratorsofjobs,arestarvedofcapital,thecriticssay.
EswarPrasad,aCornellUniversityeconomistandex-InternationalMonetaryFundofficial,saidMr.
Wen'sremarksreflect'agrowingfrustrationamongreform-mindedofficialsthatthelargebanksaredeployingtheirpoliticalclouttopreservetheirprivilegesandblockbroaderreformstothefinancialsystem.
'OtheroverhaulsfindingincreasingbackingbyChineseofficialsincludelooseningstatecontrolofinterestratesandproposalstoimproveChinesecompanies'abilitytoconductinitialpublicofferingsinlocalstockmarketsandtoallowmoreopennesstoforeigninvestors.
Themajorquestioniswhetherincreasingrhetoricandnewinitiativestowardeconomicrevisionswillleadtobroaderreform.
PrioreffortshavefalteredamidBeijing'sdrivetokeepatightreinontheeconomyandoppositionfrominterestgroups.
'TheChinesegovernmenthassaidsimilarthingsformany,manyyearsandIhaveyettoseedrastic,concreteaction,'saidVictorShih,anassociateprofessoratNorthwesternUniversity.
InhiscommentsTuesday,Mr.
WenreferredtoapilotprogramannouncedlastweekintendedtolegitimizeportionsofChina'sinformallendingsystem.
TheprogramisfocusedonthecityofWenzhou--aneasterncenterofcommercewithareputationforfosteringentrepreneurship--andthereformpushincludeslegitimatizingandtrackingthecity'swidenetworkofinformalnonbanklenders.
'ThosepartsoftheWenzhoutrialthatproveasuccessshouldimmediatelybeexpandedtotherestofthecountry,'hesaid,accordingtothebroadcaster.
China'slargestbanks--Industrial&CommercialBankofChina,BankofChina,AgriculturalBankofChinaandChinaConstructionBank--reportedcombinedprofitsof632.
21billionyuan($99billion)for2011,despiteaslowingeconomy.
Intheirpubliccomments,theyhavedefendedtheirlendingtosmallercompaniesandentrepreneursandsaidtheywereembarkingonfurtheroutreach.
Meanwhile,theChinaSecuritiesRegulatoryCommissionsaiditraisedthetotalamountforeignerscanbringinundertheQualifiedForeignInstitutionalInvestor,orQFII,programto$80billion.
TheprogramprovidestheonlywayinvestorscanconvertforeigncurrencytoinvestinChina'syuan-denominatedsecuritiesmarkets.
ForeignerinvestorshavelongclamoredforgreateraccesstoChina'sfinancialmarkets,inlargeparttobenefitfromtheyuan'sappreciation.
ButChinahasbeenlooseningconstraintsbecauseitsslowingeconomyandmoderatingtradebalancehaveeasedpressureontheyuantoappreciateinvalue.
Separately,theregulatorsaidTuesdaytheforeignfundmanagerswouldbeabletorepatriate70billionyuanfromoverseastoinvestinmainlandstocksandbonds,upfromacurrentquotaofonly20billionyuan,inanefforttofostergreaterinternationaluseoftheChinesecurrency.
ThemoveboostsChina'sefforttoincreasetheyuan'suseinternationally,inwhatisseenasachallengetotheU.
S.
dollar'sdefactoroleastheglobalcurrencyofchoice.
Lastmonth,Mr.
WengavewhatisexpectedtobehisfinalnewsconferencemarkingtheendoftheNationalPeople'sCongress,China'srubber-stamplawmakingbody.
Askedwhetherhehadworkleftundone,Mr.
Wenresponded,'Ihaveregrets,andthingslefttodo.
'温家宝抨击国有银行垄断局面中国的中央人民广播电台周二报道,中国国务院总理温家宝说,中国国有银行垄断金融业的局面必须打破.
温家宝直言不讳地呼吁对中国陈旧的金融体系进行重大改革.

据中央人民广播电台周二晚间播出的一档节目报道,温家宝对一批企业家说,中国受到严格管制的银行体系需要变革.
中国广播网的节目文字记录显示,温家宝说,其实我这里坦率地讲,我们银行获得利润太容易了.
为什么呢就是少数几大银行处于垄断地位.
我们现在所以解决民营资本进入金融,根本来讲,还是要打破垄断.

温家宝上述讲话和近几个月来网络以及媒体上对中国几家大型银行日益增大的民怨有密切关系.
这股民怨最初是由存款利率较低以及银行乱收费现象所引发的.
近几周来,就在银行纷纷宣布利润达到创纪录水平之际,中国的整体经济增速却在放缓,部分企业难以获得贷款,这更加重了民众对银行的怨气.

温家宝提出的银行业改革是关乎中国经济增长的一系列问题之一.
就在温家宝上述讲话被报道出来的同一天,北京推出了多项政策,旨在支持中国资本市场的发展,进一步促进人民币国际化进程.
其中一项政策是中国证监会3日晚间宣布,将合格境外机构投资者(QFII)的投资额度增加至800亿美元,这一额度是原来的三倍多.

温家宝2003年上任之初因致力改革而声誉卓著,但后来他也公开承认自己对改革力度不足感到遗憾.
外界预计在今年晚些时候开始的10年一次的领导层换届中温家宝将卸任.

在过去10年经济高速增长之后,未来几年中国经济扩张的速度将会放缓,外界因此质疑,中国能否从基于出口和投资的增长模式向更多依赖国内消费的模式转型.

这导致全国范围内掀起一场对国家牢牢控制金融体系这一现状的讨论.
中国的现有金融体系偏向大型国有企业,这遭到多位经济学家甚至是一些改革者的批评,他们认为这种体系阻碍了经济平衡增长.

很多人现在认为,如果不进行经济改革,一场危机将会发生.
温家宝在经济以出口为导向的福建省发表上述讲话进一步表明,拖延已久的经济改革现在至少是一个公共讨论的话题.
温家宝的讲话挑战了一种普遍假设,即改革将会停滞数年,直到以习近平为首的中国新一届领导班子上台且巩固权力基础并获得支持之后才会继续.

上海市金融服务办公室主任、世界银行(WorldBank)前经济学家方星海本周在博鳌亚洲论坛接受记者采访时说,想要实现经济转型,应该鼓励民营企业进入金融服务业.

数十年来,中国经济增长在很大程度上依赖于以较低的存款利率吸收普通民众储蓄然后将资金贷给国有企业的模式.
这种模式让储户吃亏,让借款人得利,以投资率高企、消费被抑制为特征的经济失衡因此难以消除.

越来越多的人认为这种模式不可持续.
许多经济学家们认为,要提振经济,中国现在必须将更多资金转移给消费者并帮助服务业,而民营企业正是服务业的基础.

一些经济学家认为,造成低利率现象的部分原因是中国持续低估人民币币值的种种举措.
中国央行担心较高的利率会吸引投机性资本流入并助推通胀水平.

批评人士还说,四大国有银行由于能够依靠存贷款利率之间稳定的息差(目前约为三个百分点)轻松过活,它们变得日益臃肿而自满.
批评者说,存贷差较大阻碍了金融产品和服务的创新,同时鼓励银行将资金贷给拥有政府隐性担保的国有企业.

批评者说,这种现象造成的后果就是创造了大部分就业机会的民营企业极度缺乏资金.

康奈尔大学(CornellUniversity)经济学家、国际货币基金组织(IMF)前官员普拉萨德(EswarPrasad)说,温家宝的讲话反映了"具有改革意识的官员对大型银行运用其政治影响力维护特权、阻止金融体系进一步改革的现象越来越感到沮丧".

其它日益得到中国官员支持的重大改革包括放宽国家对利率的管制,提高中国企业在国内股市进行首次公开募股(IPO)的能力,以及提高对外国投资者的开放程度.

外界关心的主要问题是,政府在经济改革方面不断放出的言论和种种新倡议是否会导致更广泛的改革.
由于中央试图严控经济,且各利益集团提出反对,此前的种种改革努力无法有力深入进行.

美国西北大学(NorthwesternUniversity)副教授史宗瀚(VictorShih)说,类似内容中国政府已经谈了很多年了,我还没有看到具体的、激进的举措.

温家宝在周二的讲话中还提到了上周宣布的一项旨在使中国民间非正式借贷体系部分合法化的试点方案.

这项试点方案主要在温州推出,改革内容包括使该市规模庞大的民间借贷网络合法化,并跟踪了解其合法化后的运作情况.
温州是中国东部的商业中心,以擅长培育企业家精神而著称.

据中央人民广播电台报道,温家宝说,温州的试点,有些成功的,要在全国推广,有些立即可以在全国进行.

尽管中国经济增长放缓,中国四大国有银行中国工商银行(Industrial&CommercialBankofChina)、中国银行(BankofChina)、中国农业银行(AgriculturalBankofChina)和中国建设银行(ChinaConstructionBank)公布的2011年利润总额仍高达人民币6322.
1亿元(约合990亿美元).
四大国有银行纷纷公开替自己辩护,称他们积极向中小企业和企业家贷款,并称他们正着手进一步主动增加对中小企业的资金支持.

与此同时,中国证券监督管理委员会(简称:中国证监会)说,它将把外国投资者通过"合格境外机构投资者"(QualifiedForeignInstitutionalInvestor,简称:QFII)机制引入中国的投资额度增加到800亿美元.
QFII给外国投资者提供了惟一一条将外币兑换成人民币投资于国内以人民币计价的证券市场的渠道.

外国投资者早就希望能进一步涉足中国的金融市场,这在很大程度上是为了能受益于不断升值的人民币.
但中国所以放宽限制是因为中国经济放缓、进出口贸易进一步平衡缓解了人民币面临的升值压力.

此外,中国证监会周二宣布,将人民币合格境外机构投资者(RQFII)在香港所募集、投资内地股市和债市的人民币资金的额度从目前的200亿元增加至700亿元,此举旨在进一步推动人民币国际化.
这一政策进一步加大了中国提高人民币国际化程度的努力,被外界视为对美元这一事实上的首选全球货币的地位构成了挑战.

上个月,在十一届全国人大五次会议结束之后,温家宝举行了任期内的最后一场记者会.
当被记者问及如何评价自己的工作时,温家宝说,还有许多工作没有做完,许多事情没有办好,有不少遗憾.

InAsia,FickleMillionairesVexBanksTheprivatebankerswhohavedescendedonAsiahopingtotapintotheworld'sfastestexpandingpoolofmillionairesarefindingthatthoseclientsaren'tverybigonrelationships.
ThenewgenerationofAsianmillionairesaregivingsomebankersfits,demandinghighreturns,tradingfast,frequentlyswitchingtorivalsorspreadingtheirmoneyamongseveralcompanies.
Thatbehaviorupendstheclassicprivate-bankingmodelofdevelopinglong-lastingassociationswithindividualclientsmainlyinterestedinpreservingwealthfortheirfamilies.
TheattractionofAsiaforprivatebankersisclear:LedbyIndiaandChina,Asia'smillionaireranksrose10%to3.
3millionin2011,justbehindthe3.
4millioninNorthAmericaandaheadofEurope's3.
1million,accordingtotheMerrillLynch/CapgeminiAsia-Pacificwealthreportissuedlastyear.
ConsultingfirmMcKinsey&Co.
expectsthenumberofrichpeopleinAsiatorise14%ayearthrough2015comparedwith4%growthinEuropeand5%inNorthAmerica.
ButprivatebankersarediscoveringhowdifferenttheirAsianclientsare.
WhileclientsintheWestwanttoincreasetheirwealth,theyalsoareconcernedwithkeepingwhattheyhavebystickingtoconservativeinvestments,andfocusingonestate-andtax-planningstrategies.
InAsia,clientsalsotendtobefirstgenerationrich,whowanttomakemoremoney,ratherthanpreserveit.
Theyseek,asonebankersaid,'privatebrokersnotprivatebankers.
''Clientsexpectyieldatashortertimeframe,andsometimesdouble-digitreturns,'saidJeffreyTang,adirectoratconsultantsTowersWatson.
McKinseysaystheaverageAsianclienthasthreetofourprivatebankers,andmanyclientsaddedadditionalbankersafterthefinancialcrisis.
'Ihaveoneclientwhonowhasmorethan10privatebankers,sayinghedoesn'twanttodependonanyonebankandriskhisassets,'saidKennyLam,McKinsey'sheadofAsiaprivatebanking.
'Asianclientsaremoreinterestedinthenexthotproductratherthanpreservingwealthandaremorelikelytoswitchtothenextbankerwithabetterinvestmentidea.
'Thecompetitiveenvironmenthasledsomesmallerprivatebankerstopulloutoftheregion,andindustryexecutivesexpectmorefirmswillleavethemarket.
Lastyear,Australia'sMacquarieGroupLtd.
solditsthree-year-oldAsianprivate-bankingbusinesstoJuliusBaerGroupAG.
BankofAmericaCorp.
solditsrelativelysmallKoreanandAustralianbusinesses,andHSBCHoldingsLtd.
solditsJapaneseprivate-bankingoperationstoSwitzerland'sCreditSuisseGroupInc.
'Tobesuccessful,youneedtohavecriticalmass,andbecauseofthis,therewillbefurtherconsolidationintheprivate-bankingsector[inAsia],'saidThomasMeier,chiefexecutiveofJuliusBaerAsia.
'EveryonethinkstheyneedtobeinAsia,becauseofChina,butit'sdifficulttomakemoney,'saidEduardoLeemann,headofZurich-basedFalconPrivateBank,theformerprivate-bankingarmofAmericanInternationalGroupInc.
Mr.
LeemannsaidFalcon,nowownedbyAbuDhabi'sInternationalPetroleumInvestmentCo.
,isbreakingeven.
'Thisisaregionthat'sfullofchallenges,andhighcosts,butEuropeisn'tdoingwell,andJapanandChinaarethesecond-andthird-biggestwealthpoolsintheworld,'saidKathrynShih,chiefexecutiveforwealthmanagementintheAsiaPacificregionatUBSAG.
PrivatebankingislessprofitableinAsiathaninEuropeandtheU.
S.
,accordingtodatafromnineleadingindustryplayerscompiledbyMcKinsey.
InAsia,privatebanksmakearound15centsto20centsinprofitforevery$100thatclientshaveundermanagement,comparedwiththeU.
S.
andEuropewheretheprofitrunsfrom25centsto30centsper$100undermanagement,accordingtodatafromMcKinsey.
Thelargeglobalbanksthatarewillingtodealwiththosechallengesbecauseofthegrowthpotentialstandtobenefitmost.
Ms.
ShihsaidUBS,whichhasaround1,000'clientadvisers'intheregion,hired140privatebankersintheAsiaPacificregionlastyearandhavealreadyhired'dozens'thisyear.
Inthepastyear,J.
P.
MorganChase&Co.
andMorganStanleyhavemovedtheirinternationalprivatebankingheadstoHongKong.
AccordingtodatafromPublicationPrivateBankerInternational,whichiswidelycitedintheindustry,UBShadthemostAsia-Pacificassetsundermanagementin2010,followedbyCitigroupInc,HSBCandthenCreditSuisse.
At12thplace,JuliusBaerheldthehighestassetrankingamongpureprivatebanks.
亚洲富豪"薄情寡义"银行很受伤希望吸引全球增长最迅速的百万富翁群体而来到亚洲的私人银行家开始发现,亚洲的客户并不太看重与一家公司保持关系.

亚洲新一代百万富翁大大出乎一些私人银行家的意料,他们要求高回报,交易速度快,还常常转到对手公司或将财富交由多家公司打理.
这种做法终结了私人银行业与客户建立持久关系的传统模式,传统的客户主要关注于为家族守住财富.

亚洲对私人银行家的吸引力一目了然:据美林(MerrillLynch)与凯捷(Capgemini)去年联合发表的亚太财富报告显示,以印度和中国为首,2011年亚洲百万富翁人数增加了10%,至330万,仅次于北美的340万人,超过了欧洲的310万人.

咨询公司麦肯锡(McKinsey&Co.
)预计,2015年前,亚洲富豪人数每年将增加14%,而欧洲年增幅为4%,北美为5%.

不过,私人银行家开始发现亚洲客户与西方传统客户有着巨大的区别.
西方客户希望财富升值,但他们也关心保住现有资产的价值,他们常常坚持保守的投资,并将重点放在遗产安排和避税战略上.

在亚洲,富豪客户也常常是白手起家,他们希望赚更多的钱,而不是守住手里的钱.
正如一位银行家说的,亚洲的富豪想要的是私人经纪商,而不是私人银行家.

咨询公司韬睿惠悦(TowersWatson)主管JeffreyTang说,客户希望在更短的时间内获得收益,有时甚至是两位数的回报率.

麦肯锡说,亚洲客户平均每人有三到四名私人银行家,金融危机之后,很多客户还额外增加了银行家.

麦肯锡亚洲私人银行业主管KennyLam说,我有一位客户现在有10多个私人银行家,他说他不想依靠任何一家银行,将自己的资产置于风险之中;亚洲客户更感兴趣的是能够赚钱的新产品,而不是守住财富,他们更可能转到其他有更好投资建议的银行家.

激烈的竞争导致一些较小的私人银行家从该地区撤出,行业内的高管预计将有更多公司离开这一市场.
去年,澳大利亚的麦格理集团(MacquarieGroupLtd.
)将其运营了三年的亚洲私人银行业务卖给了瑞士宝盛(JuliusBaerGroupAG).
美国银行(BankofAmericaCorp.
)出售了其规模相对较小的韩国和澳大利亚业务.
汇丰控股(HSBCHoldingsLtd.
)将其日本私人银行业务卖给了瑞士信贷(CreditSuisseGroupInc.
).
瑞士宝盛首席执行长迈尔(ThomasMeier)说,要想获得成功,就需要有足够数量的客户,因此,亚洲的私人银行业将会出现进一步的整合.

总部设在苏黎世的私人银行FalconPrivateBankLtd.
的负责人利文德(EduardoLeemann)说,因为中国的缘故,人人都觉得应该来亚洲,但是要赚钱很难.
FalconPrivateBankLtd.
曾是美国国际集团(AmericanInternationalGroupInc.
)旗下的私人银行业务部门,现在归阿布扎比国际石油投资公司(InternationalPetroleumInvestmentCo.
所有.
利文德说Falcon正逐渐实现收支平衡.
瑞银全球财富管理公司(UBSGlobalWealthManagement)亚太区负责人施许怡敏(KathrynShih)说,这个地区充满挑战,经营成本很高,但是欧洲市场情形不佳,日本和中国是世界第二大和第三大财富集中地.

根据麦肯锡(McKinsey)编制的来自九家行业领军企业的数据,私营银行在亚洲的盈利状况不如在欧洲和美国.
麦肯锡的数据显示,在亚洲,私有银行平均从客户托付管理的100美元中获利约15至20美分,相比之下,在美国和欧洲的利润约为每100美元25到30美分.

由于该地区的发展潜力,一些大型的全球性银行愿意应对这些挑战,它们有望获利最多.

施许怡敏说,瑞银在该地区有约1000位客户顾问,去年该银行在亚太地区雇佣了140位私人银行家,今年也已经雇佣了数十人.
在过去一年,摩根大通(J.
P.
MorganChase)和摩根士丹利(MorganStanley)将多名国际私人银行负责人调到了香港.
根据《国际私人银行家》(PrivateBankerInternational)杂志的数据(其数据经常被业内引用),2010年瑞银在亚太地区管理的资产规模最大,排在瑞银后面的是花旗集团(CitigroupInc.
)、汇丰和瑞士信贷.
瑞士宝盛排名第十二位,在纯私人银行中资产规模排在第一位.

ObscureBanksFindProfitsInIranTradeAsWesternsanctionsonIranhavegrowntighter,somesmallbankshavefoundalucrativenichefinancingwhatremainsofthelegaltradewiththeIslamicRepublic.
Top-tierfinancialinstitutionsincludingSocieteGeneraleSAandRabobankGrouphavesteppedbackfrombusinesswithIraninrecentmonths,citingincreasedpoliticalriskandlogisticalhasslesthatattendevenlegaltradewiththecountry.
Asaresult,theremainingplayersarecommandinghigherfeesandofferingincreasinglycomplicatedservices.
LikeRussia'sFirstCzech-RussianBankLLCandChina'sBankofKunlunCo.
Ltd.
,theyaretypicallysmall,obscurefinancialinstitutionsoftenbasedincountrieshistoricallyfriendlytoIran.
Thefirmsandotherintermediariesstillbrokeringthesetradesarechargingmorethan6%pertransactionforlegitimatetradedealswithIran,ontopoftraditionalbankingfees,accordingtotradersandbankersknowledgeablewiththeprocess.
ThatisasmuchastriplethefeestypicallychargedbyArabGulfbankstwoyearsago,beforetheUnitedStatesandEuropeanUnionsignificantlystiffenedsanctions,accordingtoIranianbusinessmen.
'CompaniesstillwillingtofacilitateIran'sglobalbusinessarechargingheftyfeestodoso,'saysTrevorHouser,apartneratNewYork-basedeconomicresearchfirmRhodiumGroup.
'AndthosefeeshitIraniansmuchmorethantheirforeigncustomersorsuppliers.
'EUexportstoIrantotaledaround10.
4billioneuros($13.
6billion)in2011.
In2010,IraniantradewithChinawasestimatedat16.
9billioneuros.
Whilerelativelysmall,themarketsarelargeenoughtoattractsmallerinstitutions.
InFebruary,sometradersstartedflockingtoFirstCzech-RussianBankafterwordspreadthatithadstartedservicingIrantradefacilities,accordingtoIrantradeprofessionals.
InMarch,RomanPopov,thechairmanandmajorityownerofthebank,waselectedtoleadtheRussian-IranianBusinessCouncil,promisingtoincreasebilateraltrade.
InGeneva,HindujaBank(Switzerland)Ltd.
,handlesIranianfoodtransactionsforSwisscompanies.
AchilleDeodato,amanagerforgroupandbusinesscontrol,saidthebankremainsinvolved'withtheauthorizationofSwissauthorities'intradeinvolvinglettersofcreditand'bulkagriculturalcommodities.
'EvenincountrieswithhistorictiestoIran,thesubjectistouchy.
AspokeswomanforFirstCzech-RussianBankdeclinedtodiscussthegroup'sIranbusiness.
BankofKunlundidn'trespondtorequestsforcomment,andarepresentativeatstate-ownedChinaNationalPetroleumCorp.
,whichcontrolsBankofKunlun,saidhewasunawareofthematter.
OtherinstitutionsinvolvedinfinancinglegitimatetradewithIrandeclinedtospeakontherecord,sayingtheyfearedpublicitycouldleadtheU.
S.
TreasurytoincreaseitsscrutinyoftheirU.
S.
-dollaroperations.
'Legalorillegal,itdoesn'tmatter.
It'snowpolitical.
Nobodywantsaheadache,andIranianbusinessisnowaheadache,'saidaGulfofficialworkingonIranpolicy.
Untilrecently,tradewithIranwasstillstraightforward.
BusinessessigneddealswithIraniancounterparts,usedIranianbankstoclearpayments,andcouldreadilyconvertrialsintoeuros,dollarsorpounds.
小银行从西方强化对伊朗制裁中获益在西方对伊朗强化制裁的过程中,一些小银行给自己找到了一个有利可图的小众市场,那就是为外界与伊朗之间仍然合法的贸易提供融资.

法国兴业银行(SocieteGeneraleSA)与荷兰合作银行(RabobankGroup)等一线金融机构已在近几个月退出对伊业务,因为即使是服务于合法的对伊贸易,它们所面临的政治风险和物流困难也已增加.

因此,没有退出的银行提高了收费,所提供的服务也越来越复杂.
这些银行一般都是名不见经传的小型金融机构,总部常常位于历史上跟伊朗友好的国家,俄罗斯的FirstCzech-RussianBankLLC和中国的昆仑银行就属于这类机构.
据了解这些银行运作流程的贸易商和银行从业者说,对于合法的对伊贸易,这些银行和其他仍在服务对伊贸易的中介机构除了收取传统的银行服务费以外,每笔业务还另外加收相当于交易额6%以上的费用.

据伊朗商人说,这些银行总的收费最高可达阿拉伯海湾国家的银行两年前一般收费水平的三倍.
当时美国和欧盟还没有大幅强化对伊朗的制裁.

纽约经济研究公司RhodiumGroup的合伙人豪泽(TrevorHouser)说,那些仍愿为伊朗的国际业务提供服务的公司正为其这项服务收取高昂费用,而伊朗人承担的部分远远高于外国客户或供应商承担的部分.

2011年欧盟对伊出口总额在104亿欧元(约合136亿美元)左右.
2010年,伊朗对华贸易估计为169亿欧元.

对伊贸易市场虽然相对较小,但足以吸引小型金融机构介入.
据伊朗外贸人士说,今年二月份,在听说FirstCzech-RussianBank已开始为伊朗贸易公司提供服务的消息后,一些贸易商开始向该行求助.
三月份,该行董事长和大股东波波夫(RomanPopov)被选为俄罗斯-伊朗贸易理事会(Russian-IranianBusinessCouncil)会长,他承诺会扩大俄伊双边贸易.
在日内瓦,HindujaBank(Switzerland)Ltd.
为瑞士企业处理对伊食品贸易.
这家银行负责集团与业务控制的经理德奥达托(AchilleDeodato)说,该行"获得了瑞士当局的授权",仍在从事涉及信用证和"大宗农产品"的对伊贸易.

即使是在与伊朗有历史姻缘的国家,这也是个敏感话题.
FirstCzech-RussianBank一位发言人拒绝谈论该行的伊朗业务.
昆仑银行没有回复记者的置评请求.
国有企业中国石油天然气集团公司(ChinaNationalPetroleumCorp.
)控股昆仑银行,该集团一位代表说他对昆仑银行开展对伊业务之事不知情.

其他为合法的对伊贸易提供融资服务的机构也拒绝公开表态,称它们担心公开之后美国财政部可能会更加密切地跟踪它们的美元业务一位参与制定对伊政策的海湾国家官员说,合不合法并不重要,现在这是个政治问题,没有谁想惹上麻烦,而对伊贸易现在就是一个麻烦.

直到不久前,对伊贸易仍然是简便易行的.
外国企业同伊朗企业签署协议,用伊朗银行结算账款,并能将伊朗货币里亚尔方便地兑换成欧元、美元或英镑.

但从去年12月末至今年1月,美国和欧盟不断实施制裁措施,以增加对伊朗的压力,迫使其改变核政策.
新的制裁包括封杀伊朗央行(它曾是伊朗所有石油交易的清算行),以及禁止24家伊朗银行使用国际银行转账系统等.

在伊朗,SamanBank、KarafarinBank和PasargadBank这三家小型私人银行已接替受制裁的大银行,发挥其职能.
这几家银行没有回复置评请求.

伊朗境内外都存在金融服务需求.
医药、食品和其他被认为对于伊朗人民日常福利不可或缺的物资不在美国制裁范围内.
欧盟将在今年夏季同美国一道禁止从伊朗进口石油,但根据中国和俄罗斯遵守的联合国规则,能源出口不在制裁范围内.

在没有正规银行渠道的情况下,制裁规则的变化让人对哪些交易有利可图(甚至是可以进行)产生了新的疑问.
违反美国对伊制裁措施的企业有可能被禁入美国市场,它们的美国子公司或将遭到起诉.

荷兰合作银行和法国兴业银行回应说,它们已经停止为对伊贸易服务或限制了贸易金融.
据伊朗外贸专业人士说,韩国友利银行(WooriBank)和韩国中小企业银行(IndustrialBankofKorea)也采取了相同措施.
本报未能联系到这两家韩国银行置评.
据阿拉伯国家的官员和银行业人士透露,阿拉伯海湾国家的很多银行已冻结了与伊朗的长期关系.
过去几周,阿联酋和卡塔尔两国央行分别让自己所规管的金融机构停止为伊朗贸易活动提供融资服务,无论这些交易属于何种性质的合约.

制裁效果令人不寒而栗.
DFDeutscheForfaitAG为与伊朗有贸易往来的欧盟企业提供金融服务.
据该公司统计,由于与伊朗做生意的成本不断上涨,那些长期地区供应商被迫出局.
该公司一位高管说,德国一些医疗设备出口商近来因为找不到办理业务的银行,不得不取消贸易合约.

迫于新制裁规定,伊朗贸易伙伴已求助于那些能绕开正常银行渠道的隐晦金融机制.

其中一种方法被称作"货币兑换",要求购买外国货物的伊朗买家在德黑兰一家银行付款,而卖家则会在国外一家银行收到同等金额的款项.
有中间人在这两家银行间平衡这笔交易.

还有一种可办理伊朗外贸交易的渠道叫做"福费廷"(forfaiting),即第三方从出口商那里购买信用证,并承担从进口商那里收货款的责任.

DFDeutscheForfait从2000年开始为伊朗外贸活动提供福费廷服务,并说目前仍活跃在这个市场上.
该公司在电子邮件中说,只要交易参与方不受制裁约束并且从事的是合法商品交易,它就会和客户合作.

该公司拒绝就这类服务的成本置评,但一位知情人士说,对于伊朗交易,收费一般在6%至8%之间.

CostsHobbleBanks'ProfitsU.
S.
banksarehavingtroublelosingweight.
Risingexpensesarethwartingbanks'repeatedattemptsatbelt-tightening,puttingaddedpressureonanindustrystrugglingtofindnewwaystoboostprofits.
Banksin2011closedlacklusterbranches,movedemployeestoless-costlylocationsandinitiatedcost-cuttingcampaignswithcodenamessuchasKeyvolution.
Butexpensesstemmingfromthefinancialcrisistheslowpaceofforeclosures,litigationandcompliancewithanarrayofregulationsarefrustratingcost-cuttingefforts.
Thefailuretobringcostsunderbettercontrolraisesthepossibilityoffurtherlayoffs,ontopoftensofthousandsalreadyannouncedbylargefinancialcompaniesinthesecondhalfof2011.
TheexpensedilemmaalsounderscorestheunderlyingweaknessesoftheU.
S.
bankingindustry,evenasinvestorscheera2012bounce-backrallyinbankstocks.
Muchoftheindustry'srecentprofitabilityhascomefromthereleaseofcashthathadbeensetasidetocoverbadloans,ratherthanfrombusinessgrowth.
Manyfinancialfirmswilltryagaintoshowtheyareclampingdownoncostswhentheyreleasefirst-quarterearnings,startingFridaywithreportsfromJ.
P.
MorganChaseJPM+1.
89%&Co.
andWellsFargoWFC+1.
19%&Co.
'It'sanenormousfocus,'saidScottSiefers,abankinganalystforSandlerO'Neill+PartnersLP.
ExpensesatU.
S.
banksandthriftsincreasedeachquarterlastyearafterhittingapost-financial-crisislowduringthethreemonthsendedinMarch2011,accordingtoSNLFinancialdata.
Thetotalnumberofpeopleemployedbythetop25U.
S.
banksclimbed2%fromayearearlierto1.
79millionattheendof2011,asfinancialinstitutionsbulkeduptheirtroubled-mortgageunitsandlegaldepartments.
Forexample,thenumberofpeoplehandlingsouredreal-estateloansforBankofAmericaCorp.
BAC+3.
50%balloonedto50,000from30,000during2011.
Thosepeoplenowoccupyatleast4.
5millionsquarefeetofofficespacearoundthecountry,theequivalentof78footballfields.
TheincreasecamedespiteaplanBankofAmericaannouncedlastfalltocut30,000jobsinitsretailbankingunitoverthreeyears.
Thebankhasbeenweighingthousandsofadditionalcutsininvestmentbankingandwealthmanagement.
BankofAmericaisn'texpectedtoannouncefurtherreductionswhenitreportsearningsnextweekbecauseitneedsmoretimetomakefinaldecisions,saidpeoplefamiliarwiththematter.
Revenuein2011atU.
S.
banksandthriftsdroppedfromyear-earlierlevelsineveryquarterbutthethird,SNLdatashow,reflectingbothsoftloangrowthandnewrulesthatlimitthefeesbankscancollect.
'Theabilitytocontrolcostswillbeakeydifferentiatorinprofitabilityoverthenexttwoyears,'CreditSuissebankinganalystMosheOrenbuchsaidinaresearchnotethisweek.
J.
P.
MorganChase,thenation'slargestbankbyassetsandwidelyconsideredthehealthiestofthebiglenders,isexpectedtoreportthatprofitdroppedfromayearagoandcostsroseinthefirstquarter,becauseofcompliancewithregulatorymattersandlitigationrelatingtomortgageissues.
Thebankrecentlypulledbackonanexpansionplan,halvingthenumberoflocationsitplanstoopenoverthenextfiveyears.
Ithasalsosaiditiscutting1,000jobsinitsinvestmentbank.
Costsaren'tanissuejustforthegiants.
Regionalbanksalsoaremountingcost-controlprograms,theprogressofwhichanalystsarekeepinganeyeon.
FirstMeritCorp.
,FMER+1.
30%anAkron,Ohio,bankthathasabout200branchesinOhio,PennsylvaniaandChicago,mayprovideafirstpeekattheprogressofitscosteffortswithitsearningsrelease,setforApril24.
AnalystsalsowillbewatchingComericaInc.
CMA+2.
25%TheDallas-basedbank,withbranchesinfivestates,saidithasidentifiedabout250waystoboostrevenueandlowercosts,includingreducingthenumberofvendorsitusesto300frommorethan450.
Someregionalbanksalreadyhavebeenthroughmajorcost-cuttingprograms.
ClevelandbankKeyCorpKEY+0.
72%lastyearnotched$317millionofanexpected$375millioninsavingsinaprogramdubbedKeyvolution.
Forexample,thebanksaysithassavedmorethan$2.
5millionbysettingcopiermachinestoprintonbothsidesofpaperandtakingactionsthatencourageemployeestosharedocumentselectronically.
BankofAmerica,thesecond-largestU.
S.
bankbyassets,hasmadecostcontrolatoppriorityunderChiefExecutiveBrianMoynihan.
Butoperatingexpensesrose3%in2011fromthepreviousyear,to$67billion,whilerevenuedropped15%.
Litigationcostsmorethandoubledto$5.
6billion.
BecauseBankofAmericaisn'tforeclosingfastenoughondelinquentproperties,assessmentsimposedlargelybygovernment-backedmortgagefirmsFannieMaeandFreddieMacrose800%,to$1.
8billionin2011.
Penaltiescanbeassessedifalawnhastobecutorthehousemaintainedlongerthanexpected.
Muchofthebank'saddedexpenseislockedupinthedivisionthathandlestroubledreal-estateloans.
Theloancleanupefforteatsup$2billionaquarter,accordingtothebank.
AnotherbigU.
S.
bankstrugglingtogetahandleonexpensesisCitigroupInc.
,C+3.
10%theNo.
3lenderasmeasuredbyassets.
Itsoperatingcostsgrew7%in2011to$50billion,evenasrevenuetumbled10%to$78billion.
Citigroupsaidsomeofthatspendingwasanecessaryinvestmentinsystemsandpersonnelfollowingasharpcutbackduringthefinancialcrisis.
Excludingtheimpactofforeignexchangeandotherunexpectedcosts,Citigrouphastoldanalyststoexpectanexpensereductionof$2.
5billionto$3billionin2012.
It'shardforbankstocutcostsastheyfacecontinuedfalloutfromthefinancialcrisis.
AtSunTrustBanksInc.
,fourth-quarterexpenseswereflatdespiteacostinitiativeexecutivesrefertoasa'PlaybookforProfitableGrowth.
'ThoughemployeecompensationdeclinedattheAtlanta-basedbank,costsinotherareas,suchascollections,rose.
'We'rereallytighteningdown,'SunTrustCEOBillRogerstoldanalystsinJanuary.
成本上升拖累美国银行业利润美资银行"瘦身"不易.
不断上升的支出令银行紧缩开支的多次尝试以失败告终,这给苦苦寻找利润增长点的银行业增加了新的压力.

多家银行在2011年关闭了业绩不佳的分支机构,将员工迁往成本较低的地点办公,并启动了一系列成本削减计划.
但金融危机造成的各项开支令削减成本的种种努力受挫.
造成开支上升的因素包括:止赎程序缓慢;诉讼活动以及遵守一系列监管规定令成本上升.

未能更好地控制成本令进一步裁员成为可能.
2011年下半年大型金融机构已经宣布了数万人的裁员计划.

就在投资者为2012年银行股股价的反弹而欢呼之际,如何降低开支这一难题凸显了美国银行业的根本弱点.
银行业近期的利润主要来自原先计提的不良贷款准备金得以释放,而非业务增长所产生的收入.

在发布一季度收益报告时,很多金融机构将再次努力表明它们正在压缩成本.
本周五率先公布一季度业绩的是摩根大通(J.
P.

MorganChase)和富国银行(WellsFargo).
美资券商SandlerO'Neill&PartnersLP的银行业分析师塞弗斯(ScottSiefers)说,这是外界高度关注的焦点.
金融信息提供商SNLFinancial的数据显示,截至2011年3月底的这一季度结束以后,美国银行和储蓄机构的开支去年每个季度都在上升,他们的开支在那个季度降至金融危机发生以来的最低点.
截至2011年末,全美最大的25家银行雇佣的员工总数同比上升2%,至179万人,因为金融机构扩大了问题抵押贷款(troubled-mortgage)处理部门和法务部门的规模.

例如,美国银行(BankofAmericaCorp.
)负责处理房地产问题贷款的员工在2011年从3万人上升至5万人.
这些员工在美国国内占用的办公面积至少有450万平方英尺,这大致相当于78个美式橄榄球场的占地面积.

虽然这一业务部门的员工人数大量增加,但美国银行去年秋天宣布在三年的时间内将把零售银行部门的员工裁减3万人.
该行还在考虑将投资银行部和财富管理部的员工减少数千人.

据知情人士透露,预计美国银行下周公布收益时不会再宣布裁员计划,因为该行需要更多时间来做最后决定.

SNL的数据显示,除了去年第三季度,美国的银行和储蓄机构在2011年每个季度的收入都出现了同比下滑.
这既是贷款增速疲软的反映,也是因为新的监管规定限制了银行的收费.

瑞信(CreditSuisse)银行业分析师MosheOrenbuch本周在一份研究报告中说,未来两年成本控制能力将成为区分各家银行盈利能力大小的一个关键.

预计摩根大通将公布一季度利润同比下滑、成本上升,主要是受合规问题以及抵押贷款相关诉讼案拖累.
按资产计算,摩根大通是美国最大的银行,外界普遍认为它是大型银行中财务状况最好的.

该行最近缩小了一项扩张计划的规模,将未来五年内计划开设的网点数减半.
该行还说,将在其投行部门内削减1,000个工作岗位.

不止巨头们需要面对成本问题.
地区性银行也开始推出成本控制计划,分析人士则在密切关注这类计划的进展情况.

位于俄亥俄州阿克伦市(Akron)的FirstMeritCorp.
在该州、宾夕法尼亚州和芝加哥市约有200个分支机构.
该行定于4月24日公布业绩报告,届时可能初次揭示该行成本控制措施的进展情况.

分析人士还将密切关注ComericaInc.
.
该行位于得克萨斯州达拉斯市,在五个州设有分支机构.
该行说,已经找到约250种增加收入、降低成本的方法,其中包括将使用的供应商从逾450个减少到300个.

一些地区性银行已经实施了重大成本削减措施.
位于俄亥俄州克利夫兰市的银行KeyCorp去年凭藉所谓的"Keyvolution"计划而节省了3.
17亿美元,该行计划将成本降低3.
75亿美元.

举例来讲,该行说,通过将复印机设置为双面打印模式和采取措施鼓励员工通过电子方式分享文档而节约了逾250万美元.

美国银行在首席执行长莫伊尼汉(BrianMoynihan)的领导下,已经将成本控制作为一项首要任务.
不过,2011年该行运营支出同比增加了3%,至670亿美元,而收入下滑了15%.
诉讼成本则增加了一倍以上,至56亿美元.
按资产计算,美国银行是美国第二大银行.

由于美国银行对违约房产进行止赎的速度不够快,2011年,罚款增加了800%,至18亿美元.
罚款主要是由政府支持的抵押贷款公司房利美(FannieMae)和房地美(FreddieMac)征收的.
如果一座房屋的草坪长时间未修剪或房屋年久失修,可能会对其征收罚款.

该行增加的大部分支出来自处理问题房地产贷款的部门.
据该行说,对这类贷款的清理每个季度需要花费20亿美元.

另外一个努力控制支出的大型美国银行是花旗集团(CitigroupInc.
).
2011年,该行在收入大幅下滑10%、至780亿美元之际,运营成本还是上升了7%,至500亿美元.
按资产计算,花旗是美国第三大银行.

花旗说,其中一些支出是在金融危机期间大幅精简后系统和人员方面的必要投资.
花旗对分析人士说,不包括汇率的影响和其他意外成本,预计2012年支出将减少25亿至30亿美元.

在面临金融危机的持续影响之际,银行很难削减成本.
尽管制定了高管们称之为"实现可盈利增长的剧本"的成本削减方案,但SunTrustBanksInc.
四季度支出同比还是持平.
虽然这家位于亚特兰大市的银行员工薪酬降低,托收等其他方面的成本却有所上升.
SunTrust首席执行长罗杰斯(BillRogers)今年1月对分析人士说,我们确实在节约开支.
PuttheWorldinWorldBankTheWorldBank'sexecutivedirectorsarenowdeliberatingonthechoiceofanewleaderforthecominghalfdecade.
Sinceitsfoundingin1946,thebankhasalwaysbeenheadedbyanAmerican,andU.
S.
PresidentBarackObama'snominee,Dr.
JimYongKim,isasuperbmedicalexpertandaprovenleaderofaworld-classuniversity.
Buttimesarechangingandthebank'snextheadwillneedaccesstomoney,ideasandexperiencethatonlyabackgroundintheemergingworldcanprovide.
Untiladecadeago,thekeystoachievingtheWorldBank'sbasicmission-toenhancethedevelopmentofthepoorandunderdevelopedcountries-werethemoneyandideassuppliedbytheadvancedeconomies.
SoaU.
S.
presidentmadesense,ashecouldhelprallythewidestpossiblepolitical,financialandacademicsupportfortheWorldBankfromthosecountries.
TheWorldBankowesitspastsuccesstobrilliantleadershipfromRobertS.
McNamara,JamesD.
WolfensohnandtheoutgoingRobertB.
Zoellick,amongmanyothers.
Tochooseleadersforthefuture,however,wemustconsidertheeconomicchangesofthepastdecade,especiallythosewhichacceleratedafterthe2008-09financialcrisis.
Duringthisperiod,manyemergingmarketeconomiesfinallyembarkedontheroadtoeconomicprosperity,bringingbillionsofpoorpeoplealongwiththem.
Meanwhile,theadvancedeconomieshavemiredthemselvesinvariousfinancialandfiscalbogs.
Asaresult,emergingmarketsarebetterpositionedthanevertoprovidetheWorldBankitstwoessentials-moneyandideas.
Manyemergingmarketeconomiesarealreadypreparedtoassistotherswhoneedmoney.
Asmuchas$5trillionininvestmentfundsisinthehandsoftheseearlydevelopers,includingBrazil,ChinaandRussia.
Incontrast,mostadvancedeconomiesarecash-constrainedduetotheirongoingcrises,whichwilllikelytakeyearsmoretoresolve.
Yes,centralbanksintheadvancedeconomiescancontinuecreatingtheirownmoneysotheyappeartoberichincash,butdoingsoendlesslyissuicidalfortheglobaleconomyandnotananswertodevelopmentproblems.
Ingeneral,today'spooreconomiesdonotappreciateandwillnotbenefitfromthecontinuedpracticeofloosemonetarypolicyintheadvancedeconomies.
Aswithmoney,thegapbetweendevelopedanddevelopingcountriesingoodideashasshrunk.
Manyleadersinemergingmarketeconomieshavefinallygraspedthecorrectconceptsfordevelopment,oftenafterbecomingdiligentstudentsofdevelopmentexpertsfromtheWorldBank.
Chinaisperhapsthebestexamplehere.
Inthelastfewdecades,whentheWorldBankspoke,Chineseleaderslistenedattentivelyinsteadofrebuttingloudly.
Moreimportantly,theytookthemessagesfromWorldBankofficialstotheirhearts,adoptingtheimmediatelyusefulonesandleavingothersforfutureconsideration.
CountrieslikeChinacannowbegoodmentorsinturntolessdevelopedcountries.
Thebeststudentsshouldbethebestteachers;theyknowfirsthandwhichideasworkandwhichdonot.
Criticsofmyproposalwillprotestthatqualifications,notcountryoforigin,shoulddeterminewhoisrightforthejob.
Iagree.
TheWorldBankneedsacapablepresidentfromasuccessfulemergingmarketeconomynotsosomeboxcanbechecked,butbecausesuchaleaderwillfinditeasiertocommunicatewithemergingmarketeconomies,raisefundsfromthemandmakeuseoftheirbestideas.
Aleaderfromtheemergingeconomieswouldunderstandonapersonallevelthesetbacksandsuccessesofthesenations,anddedicatehimselftoinstitutionalreformsfardeeperthandisaster-mitigation.
ItservesthemissionoftheWorldBankbettertohaveanableleaderfromanemergingmarketeconomythanfromtheU.
S.
Bysupportingsuchaleader,theObamaadministrationcandemonstrateitsrecognitionoftheemergingworld'srisinggloballeadership.
LosingaU.
S.
-backednomineeisactuallygainingabetterpositionfortheU.
S.
,aswellasfortheWorldBank,inanewandchangingworld.
Mr.
LiisdirectoroftheCenterforChinaintheWorldEconomyandtheMansfieldFreemanprofessorofeconomicsatTsinghuaUniversity.
把世界银行还给世界世界银行(WorldBank)的执行董事们正在考虑该行下一任行长的人选.
自从世界银行1946年创立以来,行长之位一直由美国人担任,而美国总统奥巴马(BarackObama)提名的金永吉(JimYongKim)博士是一位卓越的医学专家,也是一所世界级大学的称职校长.
但是时代正在发生着变化,世界银行的下一任行长需要有能力获得资金、理念和经验,而这种能力只有发展中国家的出身背景才能提供.

直到10年前,实现世界银行的基本使命促进贫穷和不发达国家的发展所需关键要素还是发达经济体所提供的资金和理念.
所以,那时选择美国人担任世行行长是有道理的,因为美国人有助于从发达国家汇集尽可能广泛的世行所需政治、金融和学术支持.
世界银行在过去所取得的成功,要归功于麦克纳马拉(RobertS.
McNamara)、沃尔芬森(JamesD.
Wolfensohn)和即将卸任的佐利克(RobertB.
Zoellick)等人的杰出领导.
不过在选择世界银行未来的行长时,我们必须考虑过去10年发生的经济变化,尤其是在2008至2009年的金融危机之后加速发生的变化.

在这段时期,许多新兴市场经济体终于走上了经济繁荣之路,在这一过程中数以十亿计的穷人开始摆脱贫困.
与此同时,发达经济体则陷入了各种各样的金融和财政困境.
因此,新兴市场国家比以往任何时候都更适宜为世界银行提供其履行职责所必需的两样东西,即资金和思想.

许多新兴市场经济体已经开始准备帮助其他需要资金的国家.
包括巴西、中国和俄罗斯在内这些发展中国家里的先行者手中握有高达五万亿美元的投资基金.
相比之下,大多数发达经济体由于当前的危机而资金紧张,而解决这些危机很可能还要再花上几年的时间.

诚然,发达经济体的央行可以继续大印钞票,以便显得资金雄厚,但无休止地这样做对全球经济来说无异于自杀,同时也非应对发展问题的解决之道.
对于发达经济体持续实施的宽松货币政策,现在的贫穷经济体普遍并不感激,也不会从中获得什么好处.

正如资金差距一样,发达国家和发展中国家在提出好的建议方面差距也缩小了.
新兴市场经济体的很多领导人已经最终明白了发展的正确概念,通常是在成为世界银行发展专家的勤奋学生之后.

中国或许是这方面最好的例子.
过去几十年来,当世界银行说话时,中国领导人会全神贯注地倾听,而不是大声反驳.
更重要的是,他们确实将世界银行官员的话听进去了,采纳可以立即发挥作用的建议,将其他建议留到今后考虑.

像中国这样的国家如今可以当发达程度不及它的国家的优秀导师.
最好的学生应该是最好的老师;他们从实践中总结出哪些想法可行,哪些不可行.

对我的建议持批评态度的人会反驳说,谁适合当老师,这应该由资质而不是国别决定.
对此我表示同意.
世界银行需要一位来自成功新兴市场经济体的有能力的行长,这样做并不是为了填补某项空白,而是因为这样一位领导人能够更容易地与新兴市场经济体沟通交流、从这些经济体筹集资金、采纳它们提出的最好的建议.
一位来自新兴经济体的领导人将对这些国家遭受的挫折和取得的成功有着切身体验,并全身投入到比减灾更深远的机构改革中.

拥有一位来自新兴市场经济体的有能力的行长而非来自美国的行长,这样做更符合世界银行的使命.
通过支持这样一位领导人,奥巴马政府可以展示对新兴经济体不断增强的全球领导力的认可.
失去一位美国支持的人选,实际上将使美国和世界银行在一个不断变化的新世界中处于更加有利的地位.

(编者按:本文作者李稻葵现任清华大学中国与世界经济研究中心主任、清华大学经济管理学院佛利曼(MansfieldFreeman)经济学讲席教授.
)EconomicAnalysis(经济分析)Soros:EuroCrisisIsLethal,ABreakUpIsPossibleBillionaireinvestorGeorgeSorosisveryworriedabouttheEuroZone,andhe'saskingleaderstheretotakeradicalactionbeforeit'stoolate.
ItwasjustoveramonthagothattheEuropeanCentralBankeasedthefearsofinvestorsaroundtheglobebyannouncingasecondroundofloanstobanksintheEuroZone.
Butcheapmoneyjustisn'tenoughtoendtheregion'sproblems–particularlyforItalyandSpainwhosebondyieldshavebeenbeenworryinginvestorsthisweekandsparkedfearsthatthelattermayneedabailout.
Butbailoutswon'tsolvetheentireproblem.
Therearestructuralproblemsthatneedtobeaddressedinorderfortheregiontotrulymoveforward.
SorosnotesinapiecefortheFinancialTimesthattheECB'scapitalinjection,orlonger-termrefinancingoperations,inducedaglobalrallybuthid"anunderlyingdeterioration"intheregion.
Headds,"Thefundamentalproblemshavenotbeenresolved;indeed,thegapbetweencreditoranddebtorcountriescontinuestowiden.
Thecrisishasenteredwhatmaybealessvolatilebutmorelethalphase.
"Thosearescarywordsfromthelegendaryinvestorwhoseownnetworthstandsat$20billion.
It'snotthefirsttimeSoroshaswarnedofthelingeringproblemsinEurope.
AfterthefirstroundofLTROSorossaidthedealwouldonlylastashorttime,fromonedaytothreemonths.
TherehavebeenplentyofcallsforabreakupoftheEuroZonebutlittleactionbecauseoftheperceiveddifficulty.
Sorossaysthoughthatabreak-upismorepossiblethesedaysthanintheearlydaysofthedebtcrisis.
WhyBecauseasthecrisishasprogressedcountrieshavebeenforcedtoactandbehavealongnationallines.
Henotes:"TheLTROenabledSpanishandItalianbankstoengageinveryprofitableandlow-riskarbitrageintheirowncountries'bonds.
AndthepreferentialtreatmentreceivedbytheECBonitsGreekbondswilldiscourageotherinvestorsfromholdingsovereigndebt.
Ifthiscontinuesforafewmoreyears,aeurozonebreak-upwouldbecomepossiblewithoutameltdown–butwouldleavecreditorcountries'centralbanksholdingbigclaimsthatwouldbehardtoenforceagainstdebtorcountries'centralbanks.
OneofthebarrierstoarealfixintheregionisGermany'scentralbank,Soroswritesinopinionpiece.
TheBundesbankisguardingagainstabreakupoftheEurozonetoprotectitsownlosses.
Hewrites:"TheBundesbankhasseenthedanger.
Itisnowcampaigningagainsttheindefiniteexpansionofthemoneysupply,andithasstartedtakingmeasurestolimitthelossesitwouldsustaininabreak-up.
Thisiscreatingaself-fulfillingprophecy:oncetheBundesbankstartsguardingagainstabreak-up,everybodywillhavetodothesame.
Marketsarebeginningtoreflectthis.
TheBundesbankisalsotighteningcreditathome.
ThiswouldbetherightpolicyifGermanywasafreestandingcountry,buttheeurozone'sheavilyindebtedmembersbadlyneedstrongerdemandfromGermanytoavoidrecession.
Withoutit,theeurozone'sfiscalcompact,agreedlastDecember,cannotpossiblywork.
Theheavilyindebtedcountrieswilleitherfailtoimplementthenecessarymeasuresor,iftheydo,theywillfailtomeettheirtargetsbecauseofcollapsingdemand.
Eitherway,debtratioswillrise,andthecompetitivenessgapwithGermanywillwiden.
Soroscallsexistingpoliciescounterproductiveandsuggestsaradicalrevisiontotherulesgoverningtheregion.
Hisguidelines:modifytheexistingfiscalcharteragreedtoby25ofthe27EUmemberwithrevisionsaboutthetypesofdebtthatareaccepted.
Healsoproposesthattheagreement,whichrequiresmemberstatestoreducetheirpublicdebtannuallyby1/12oftheamountbywhichtheyexceed60percentofGDP,rewardgoodbehaviorbytakingupthoseobligations.
"Byrewardinggoodbehaviour,thefiscalcompactwouldnolongerconstituteadeflationarydebttrap.
Theoutlookwouldradicallyimprove.
Inaddition,tonarrowthecompetitivenessgap,allmembersshouldbeabletorefinanceexistingdebtatthesameinterestrate.
Butthatwouldrequiregreaterfiscalintegration.
Itwouldhavetobephasedingradually,"hewrites.
ButevenSorosknowsthathis"radicalrevisions"won'tgooverwellwithGermany.
HeacknowledgesthattheBundesbank"willneveraccepttheseproposals.
"索罗斯:债务危机会"毒杀"欧元区亿万富豪投资人乔治·索罗斯(GeorgeSoros)目前非常担忧欧元区,他呼吁欧元区领导人及时采取彻底的行动,否则悔之晚矣.

就在一个多月前,欧洲央行刚刚宣布对欧元区银行提供第二轮贷款,从而缓解了世界各地投资者的担忧情绪.
但低息贷款完全不足以终结欧元区面临的困境,尤其是意大利和西班牙,这两个国家的国债收益率一直令投资者担忧不已,并且引发投资者担忧西班牙可能成为下一个需要救助的国家.

但救助无法解决整个问题.
要使欧元区真正向前迈进,就需要解决一系列结构性问题.
索罗斯在为《金融时报》撰写的一篇文章中指出,欧洲央行通过实施长期再融资操作(LTRO)向欧元区银行注入资金,导致全球金融市场反弹,但掩盖了欧元区"深层的恶化".
他补充说:"一系列根本性的问题并没有得到解决;实际上,债权国与债务国之间的差距还在继续扩大.
欧元区危机进入了一个可能不那么动荡、却更为致命的阶段.
"这些都是从这位极其著名、个人资产净值达200亿美元的投资家口中说出的可怕言论.
这并不是索罗斯第一次就欧洲持续面临的困境发出警告.
在欧洲央行实施第一轮LTRO之后,索罗斯就曾表示,此项措施的效果只能持续很短的时间,其持续时间最短一天,最多不超过三个月.

有许多人曾呼吁欧元区解体,但由于人们意识到欧元区解体将会造成的种种困难,所以并没有多少实际行动.
然而,索罗斯表示,现在欧元区的解体比债务危机爆发之初更具可能性.
为什么呢因为随着危机的逐步演进,各国已被迫按照各自的国家利益而采取行动.
他指出:"LTRO使西班牙和意大利的银行能够在各自国债领域进行高利润、低风险的套利交易.
欧洲央行在其持有的希腊国债上享有优先待遇,这将打击其他投资者持有主权债券的意愿.
如果这种情形再持续几年,那么欧元区在不崩盘的情况下解体将成为可能,但这将导致债权国央行持有大量难以强制债务国央行履行的债权.
"索罗斯在这篇评论文章中写道,欧元区获得真正修复所面临的障碍之一是德国央行.
德国央行目前正采取措施,避免欧元区解体,以保护自己免遭损失.
他写道:"德国央行认识到了这种危险.
现在它正发起行动,反对无限制扩大货币供应,并开始采取措施,以求降低自己在欧元区解体的情况下将会遭受的损失.
这正形成一个会自我应验的预言:一旦德国央行开始防范欧元解体,其他所有国家都将效法.
市场已开始对这种情况作出反应.

德国央行还在国内收紧信贷.
倘若德国不是欧元区成员国,那么这种政策倒没错.
但那些负债累累的欧元区成员国迫切需要更为强劲的德国需求来避免陷入经济衰退.
没有这样的需求,去年12月达成的欧元区财政协议就不可能奏效.
负债累累的国家要么无法实施一系列必要的措施,要么即便能够实施这些措施,也会因为需求突然萎缩而无法实现目标.
无论哪一种情况,这些国家的负债比率都会攀升,与德国的竞争力差距也将扩大.
"索罗斯称现行政策适得其反,并建议对欧元区治理规则进行彻底修改.
他的原则性建议是:修改欧盟27个成员国中25个国家签署的现有财政公约,对可接受债务类型的规则进行修订.
欧盟财政公约规定,公共债务与国内生产总值(GDP)之比超过60%的成员国,每年必须将超出部分的债务减少二十分之一.
对此他还提议,该公约对承担这些义务的国家予以良好行为的奖励.

"通过奖励良好行为,财政协议就不再会引发通缩性的债务陷阱.
前景将大为好转.
此外,为了缩小竞争力差距,所有成员国还应该能够以相同利率为现有债务进行再融资.
但这需要更高程度的财政一体化,这必须分阶段逐步实现.
"他如是写道.

但是,即便索罗斯自己也知道,他的"彻底修改方案"不会为德国所接受.
他承认,德国央行"永远不会接受这些提议.
"Stiglitz&Greenwald:AlanGreenspanWasNoGenius,HeWasIrrelevantInapanelondebtandfinancialinstability,NobellaureateJosephStigitzandco-authorBruceGreenwaldblastedmonetarypolicy,consideringitinefficientinthefaceofthecurrentbalancesheetrecession.
TalkingalongwiththeBankofInternationalSettlements'ClaudioBorio,bothColumbiaUniversityeconomistsalsospendsometimebashingformerFedchiefAlanGreenspan,callinghim"irrelevant.
"Thereisnodenyingthattheglobaleconomyhasn'trecoveredfromthe2008financialcrisis.
Europeisinrecession,andstrugglingtoremainunited,whiletheU.
S.
isexperiencingaveryfragilerecovery.
OverinSouthEastAsiaandLatinAmerica,fast-growingeconomiesarebeginningtoslowdown.
Inaveryprescientdiscussion,heldinNewYorkinthecontextoftheLevyInstitute'sMinskyConference,agroupoftop-notchpanelistsbrokeintoanintensedebateoverthenatureofthecrisisandtherecovery.
WithStiglitz-Greenwaldrepresentingonesideoftheargument,andtheBIS'deputyheadClaudioBorioontheother,thepanelistsagreedoverleveragedbalancesheetsweretoblameforthecrisis,butweren'tonthesamesidewhenitcametosolutions.
StiglitzandGreenwaldwentfurther,claimingmonetarypolicycandonothingtosolvetheproblem.
"Inthecurrentcontext,monetarypolicywillbeinefficient,"saidStiglitz.
Balancesheets,heargued,werestillweak,basedonwhathecalls"mark-to-hope"accounting,highlightingtheweaknessofarbitrarilypricedassetsheldonbanks'books(suchastoxicassetsderivedfrommortgageloans).
Borio,whotookontheAmericanduo,explainedthatwhenitcomestocrisisresolution,balancesheetrepairrequiresfinancialinstitutionstorecognizelossesandtakemassivewritedowns.
StiglitzandGreenwaldmadethecasethatthishasn'tfullyhappenedyet.
Indeed,majorU.
S.
financialinstitutionslikeJPMorganChase,BankofAmerica,Citi,andWellsFargostillholdbillionsinforeclosedpropertiesontheirbooks.
Fraudulentforeclosurepracticeslikerobo-signingforcedthemtoslowdownthatoffloading,buttheystillhaven'ttrulybeenforcedtopricethoseassetstomarket.
Thus,bankcapitalization(onlyafterlossrecognition)istheonlywayout,StiglitzandGreenwaldargue.
Illustratingtheineffectivenessofmonetarypolicy,GreenwaldtookaverydirectstabatIlMaestro:"AlanGreenspanisnotaherooravillain,he'sirrelevant.
Whenhegotinthedriver'sseatofthecarthathadbeenrepeatedlydrivenofftheroad,thesteeringwheelhadbeendisconnected.
Whenthecarstayedontheroad,hebelievedhewasagenius.
Borio,whoalsosufferedtheonslaughtoftheStiglitz-Greenwaldduo,whowereaidedbytheFT'sMartinWolffromthecrowdduringQ&A,criticizedexcessiveandprotractedeasing,notingit"delaysbalancesheetadjustment.
"TheBISeconomistmadethecaseforbalancesheetrepair,whichshouldleadtoaself-sustainingrecovery;BorioreferencedtheNordicresponsetorecessioninthe'90s,whichsawrapidgrowthafterenforcinglossrecognition,directcapitalizationofbanks,dealingwithbadassets,andreducingexcesscapacityinthefinancialsector.
"Adegreeofpubliccontrolisinevitable,"henoted.
But,inwhatcouldbeseenasacriticismoftheBernankeFed'sextendedpoliciesofquantitativeeasingandultra-loosemonetarypolicy,Borionoted"theamountofcredit[intheeconomy]isn'twhat'simportant,it'sthequality.
"Toomucheasingbuystime,butmasksweakness,numbsrisk-taking,underminesearningscapacity,andhasalimitedeffectonfinaloutput,heexplained.
Attheendoftheday,bothgroupsofeconomistsmadeasimilarpoint.
Healthybalancesheetsareimportant.
Borioappearsmoreoptimistic,expectinghealthybalancesheetstoleadtogrowth,whiletheAmericanduothinksthat'snotenough.
Fiscalpolicy,anddirectcapitalization,iswhat'sneeded,theysaid.
诺贝尔得主:格林斯潘不是天才,其政策"一点用都没有"在一场有关债务与金融动荡的研讨会上,诺贝经济学奖得主约瑟夫斯蒂格利茨(JosephStiglitz)及其合著者布鲁斯格林沃德(BruceGreenwald)对美国的货币政策予以大力抨击,称其在当下这场由资产泡沫破裂所引发的衰退面前,是一种徒劳.
与国际清算银行的克劳迪奥博里奥(ClaudioBorio)共同切磋经济形势时,这两位哥伦比亚大学经济学家还对前美联储主席艾伦格林斯潘(AlanGreenspan)予以抨击,称其政策其实"一点用都没有".
无可否认,全球经济仍未走出2008年金融危机的阴影.
欧洲现处于经济衰退,正竭力维持团结局面;美国的经济复苏过程则异常脆弱.
东南亚和拉美飞速发展的经济也开始放缓.

该研讨会隶属于在纽约举办的利维经济研究所(LevyInstitute)明斯基年会(MinskyConference);研讨会上,顶尖经济学家就危机与复苏的本质展开了激烈辩论.
讨论的一边是斯蒂格利茨与格林沃德,另一边是国际清算银行副行长克劳迪奥博里奥.
双方一致认为,资产与负债的过度杠杆化是引发危机的罪魁祸首,但在危机化解方案上,双方各执一词,互不相让.

斯蒂格利茨与格林沃德更进一步,称货币政策对解决问题毫无助益.
"在当前背景下,货币政策于事无补.
"斯蒂格利茨说.
他认为资产负债表仍然不堪一击,遵从的仍是"按希望计价"(mark-to-hope)的会计原则,这使得银行所持主观定价资产(如住房抵押贷款产生的有毒资产)的弱点暴露无遗.

对阵两位美国经济学家的博里奥则分析认为,在如何化解危机问题上,资产负债表的修复要求金融机构确认损失,并进行大规模资产减值.
斯蒂格利茨和格林沃德则反驳称情况尚未发展到这一步.

的确,美国各大金融机构如摩根大通、美国银行、花旗集团以及富国银行的账面上仍然持有巨额止赎资产.
"机器人签名"(指银行员工不对止赎请求作出审核,机械化予以大批量批准的操作——译注)等被定性为欺骗性的止赎操作,使银行不得不放缓处置此类资产的步伐,但仍未真正被迫按照市场将其定价.

这样一来,银行充实资本(只发生在损失确认之后)是唯一的出路,斯蒂格利茨和格林沃德说.
为说明货币政策的徒劳,格林沃德对"调音大师"进行了直截了当的批判:"艾伦·格林斯潘不是英雄也不是恶棍,他的政策实际上一点用也没有.
当他坐上这辆多次冲出道路的汽车驾驶座时,方向盘已然与汽车分离.
但只要汽车还行驶在道路上,他就相信自己是个天才.
"而博里奥也受到了来自斯蒂格利茨格林沃德两人的猛攻,问答环节,在听众席中的英国《金融时报》(FinancialTimes)马丁沃夫(MartinWolf)的援助下,他批评宽松政策规模过大、持续时间过长,并指出其"拖延了资产负债表的调整".
这位国际清算银行经济学家提供论据支持了修复资产负债表的重要性——它能引致一种自我维持的修复;博里奥引用了北欧在上世纪90年代应对经济衰退的例子称,当时的北欧在实施损失确认、银行补充资本、着手处理不良资产以及遏制过度金融化之后,呈现出了快速增长态势.
"一定程度的管控是不可避免的.
"他说.

但博里奥指出,"(经济中的)信贷规模并不是那么重要,关键在于信贷质量",这可以视为对伯南克(Bernanke)领导下的美联储实施的过度量化宽松政策和超宽松货币政策的批评.
他分析说,过量的宽松政策能够争取到一些时间,但掩盖了弱点、麻木了市场的风险偏好、削弱了盈利能力,限制了最终效果的发挥.

会议结束时,双方经济学家得出了类似的观点,即资产负债表的健康与否至关重要.
博里奥显得更为乐观,期待健康的资产负债表能带来经济增长,而两位美国经济学家则认为这还不够,两人表示,财政政策以及直接资本化是必不可少的步骤.

SubprimeLendingIsBack,AndThat'sNotSuchABadThingDon'tlooknowbutbanksareonceagainissuinglinesofcredittocustomerswithbadcredithistories.
Bankcreditcards,retailcreditcardsandautoloansareallmorereadilyavailabletosubprimeborrowersoverthelastyearaccordingtoaMarchreportfromEquifax.
Bank-issuedcreditcardlendingtosub-primeconsumersjumped41%between2010and2011hittingafour-yearhighinDecember2011with1.
1millionnewbankcreditcardsissued.
Plus,at$12.
5billion,bankcardlimitsareattheirhighestlevelsince2008whenthelimitstoodaround$27.
4billion.
Retailcreditcardsalsosawanincreaseinlendingtoriskierborrowers.
From2010to2011therewasa4.
7percentagepointincreaseinretailcardoriginationstosub-primeborrowers,makingup31%of2011retailcreditcardoriginations,Equifaxsays.
Subprimeborrowersarealsoseeingcreditlineseasingintheautoloanarena.
Equifaxsaysnewautofinanceloanamountsincreased$11.
6billionfrom2010($164.
6billion)to2011($176.
2billion),hittingthehighestoriginationslevelsince2007($221.
1billion).
"Theevidenceofincreasedlendingtosub-primeconsumersdemonstratesbanks'ongoingeffortstogrowlendingbyprovidingcreditopportunitiestomoreconsumers,"saidEquifaxChiefEconomistAmyCrewsCutts.
"Year-over-yearresultsshowborrowersaretakingadvantageofthenewopportunitiesandseekingtodiversifytheirfinancialactivity,whichisbuildingmomentumtowardeconomicimprovement.
"Thatmightbeespeciallytrueforbankswhoserevenuepipelineshavebeensqueezedinpartbecauseofnewrulesandregulations.
Theso-calledDurbinamendment,forinstance,limitsthefeesbankscancollectfrommerchantslikeTargetandWalmartwhentheircustomersswipetheirdebitcardsthere.
TheCardActisanotherrevenuekillerforbankswhich,amongotherthings,keepsthemfromchargingoverdraftfees.
AndtheremaybemorelimitationsonthewayastheConsumerFinanceProtectionBureaurecentlylaunchedaninquiryaskingbanksfordataabouttheiroverdraftpractices.
TheNewYorkTimeswroteaboutthesubprimelendingcomebacksaying"Asfinancialinstitutionsrecoverfromthelossesonloansmadetotroubledborrowers,someofthelargestlenderstothelessthancreditworthy,includingCapitalOneandGMFinancial,aretryingtowoothemback,whileHSBCandJPMorganChaseareamongthosetiptoeingagainintosubprimelending.
"Indeed,TrefisfindsthatJPM'screditanddebitcardbusinessisthemostvaluableunit,contributingtojustunderaquarterofitsvalue.
ThebankreportsfirstquarterearningsFridayandTrefisexpectsanincreaseinJPMorgan'soutstandingcardloanportfolioandimprovementinitsprovisionsforcreditcardloansasfewerloansareexpectedtogobad.
ForthelikesofBankofAmerica,JPMorganChase,CitiandWellsFargoincreasingrevenueinthislowgrowthandheavilyregulatedenvironmentisabigchallengefortheindustry.
Soit'snotsuchahugesurprisethatlendersarelookingtowidentheirscopeintheirsearchfornewborrowers.
Afterall,theirinvestorsarebankingsector'sgrowthprospectsverycloselyinthepost-crisisworld.
Plus,increasedlending,evenifitistosubprimeconsumers,shouldn'tbecompletelyfrowneduponbecauseit'sonewaytohelpboosteconomicgrowth.
Besides,lendingtosubprimeborrowerswasn'tthewholeproblem–itwaslendingtothemwithoutsomuchasverifyingemployment,theirincomeandassets.
RememberNINJAloansWiththatinmind,themostimportantthingforlendersistokeepthelessonslearnedfrom2008crisisfreshintheirmemory.
Thekeywillbemanagingtheriskthatcomeswithterritoryoflendingtolessthanstellarborrowers.
次贷再度兴起,未必就是坏事请保持冷静听我说,各大银行又开始向信用记录不良的顾客发放信用额度了.

据著名消费者信用调查公司Equifax今年3月份发布的一份报告显示,在过去的一年里,次级贷款人比以前更加容易获得银行信用卡、零售商信用卡及汽车贷款.

从2010年到2011年,银行向次级信用消费者发放的信用卡贷款同比激增41%,2011年12月份银行新发放的信用卡数量达110万张,创四年来的新高.
而且,银行卡信用额度总额达125亿美元,成为自2008年达到274亿美元以来的最高水平.

Equifax表示,美国各大零售商向高风险借款人发放的信用卡贷款也出现增长.
从2010年到2011年,各大零售商向次级信用借款人发放的零售信用卡贷款同比增长了4.
7%,在2011年零售信用卡贷款总额中占据31%的比例.

次级信用借款人在汽车贷款领域也得到了信贷额度的放宽.
Equifax表示,新发放的汽车金融贷款总额增加了116亿美元——从2010年的1,646亿美元增加到2011年的1,762亿美元,成为自2007年汽车贷款总额达2,211亿美元以来的最高水平.

Equifax首席经济学家艾米·克鲁斯·卡茨(AmyCrewsCutts)表示:"向次级信用消费者放贷总额增加的迹象表明,银行继续通过向更多消费者提供信贷机会来努力增加放贷规模.
同比数据显示,借款人正利用这些新的机会,设法使自己的融资方式多样化,而这正增强经济改善的势头.
"对于那些营收渠道部分因新规章制度而遭到压缩的银行而言,情况或许尤为如此.
比如,所谓的《德宾修正案》(Durbinamendment)对银行向诸如塔吉特和沃尔玛等商家收取的借记卡支付手续费进行了限制.
《信用卡法案》(TheCardAct)是扼杀银行营收的另一件利器,该法案阻止银行向客户收取透支费等.
未来可能还会出现更多的限制,消费者金融保护局(ConsumerFinanceProtectionBureau)最近发起了一项调查,要求各大银行提交有关处理客户透支操作的数据.

《纽约时报》就次贷再度兴起而发表了文章,该文章表示:"随着各大金融机构纷纷从向陷入困境的借款人提供贷款的亏损中恢复过来,诸如第一金融(CapitalOne)及通用汽车金融(GMFinancial)等一些向信用不太可靠的客户提供贷款的信贷机构目前正试图把这些客户吸引回来,同时汇丰银行及摩根大通等金融机构正再次悄悄进入次贷市场.
"的确,财经网站Trefis发现,摩根大通的信用卡和借记卡业务目前是该银行最有价值的部门,对这家银行的价值贡献度接近25%.
该银行本周五将发布今年第一季度的季报,Trefis预计摩根大通信用卡贷款组合的未结余额会有所增长,而其发放信用卡贷款的规定也会有所放宽,因为预计成为呆账的贷款有所减少.

对于像美国银行、摩根大通、花旗集团及富国银行等金融机构而言,在如今这个低增长而监管严的环境中提高营收是该行业目前面临的一大挑战.
因此,各家贷款机构目前寄望于扩大各自寻找新贷款人的范围,这点也并不太出乎意料了.
别忘了,在经济危机后的环境中,这些银行的投资者密切关注的是银行业的增长前景.

而且,贷款(即使是向次级信用消费者提供的贷款)增加不应遭到全盘否定,因为这是有助于促进经济增长的一种方式.
此外,向次级信用借款人放贷并非问题的全部——问题主要在于甚至在没有核实次级信用借款人的就业、收入及资产状况就向他们提供贷款.
还记得"忍者贷款"(NINJAloan,指不要求提供收入、就业及资产证明就发放的贷款)吗考虑到这一点,对于贷款机构而言,最重要的是要时刻牢记从2008年金融危机中吸取到的教训.
关键问题是控制好向信用不佳的客户提供贷款的风险.

NoDeal.
Whyyoushouldn'tbelievethetheorybehindGroupon'sbusinessmodel.
Accountingisboring.
High-techinnovationandfast-growingstartupsarefun.
Butsometimesboringthingsareimportant.
AndGroupon,thefast-growingmarketleaderinthedailydealbusiness,can'tseemtogetitsaccountingright.
OnFriday,thecompanyissuedanearningsrestatementsayingthey'dactuallylost$64.
9millioninthefourthquarterof2011ratherthanthe$42.
7millionthey'doriginallyreported.
That'sanembarrassingmistake,tobesure,butwhatmakesthingsevenworseisthatthecompany'saccountants,Ernst&Young,saiditwasn'tjustaone-offerror—rather,itreflecteda"materialweakness"inthecompany'sinternalfinancialcontrols.
Butthebiggerproblemisn'tthelossesortherestatementoreventhematerialweaknessinthecontrols.
WhatinvestorsshouldbealarmedaboutisamaterialweaknessinGroupon'sunderlyingbusinessmodel.
ThespecificerrorinQ4hastodowiththesomewhatoddtimingoftheinflowsandoutflowsofGroupon'srevenue.
Atanygiventime,thecompanyissellingavarietyof"deals"—discountpricesongoodsandservices.
SincethedealitselfistheproductGrouponsells,youhandthemoneyovertothemrightaway.
Moneyisthenpaidouttotheserviceprovideronanagreed-upontimetable,andatsomelaterpointacustomeractuallyredeemshiscoupon.
AsGrouponhasstartedmovingintodealsforhigher-valueservices,itbeganallowingcustomerstobackoutandgetrefundsundercertaincircumstances.
Initsinitialreport,Grouponfailedtoaccountforasurgeinrefundsandthusover-reporteditsrevenue.
Ernst&Young'smaterialweaknesscommentreferredtoafailuretoaccountforthepossibilityofrefunds.
Neitherthespecificerrornortheexistenceofabadaccountingprocedureisnecessarilyallthatdamning.
Grouponhasbeenanextraordinarilyfast-growingcompanyintermsofrevenue,andit'sunderstandablethatthecompany'scoreexecutiveteamhasbeenmorefocusedongrowingthecompanythanmuckingaroundwithaccountingprocedures.
IfGrouponisawildlysuccessfulbusiness10yearsfromnow,wecanexpectthisearlybrushwithaccountingwoestobeanendlesslyrepeatedanecdoteaboutthecultureclashbetweenbrashgo-gettingentrepreneursandboringgreeneyeshadesuits.
CEOAndrewMason'searlyclashwiththeSecuritiesandExchangeCommission,inwhichamemoheauthoredtoutingthecompany'sprospectsleakedtothepublicduringthe"quietperiod"thatlegallymustprecedeanIPO,alsofitsintothatbucket.
TheruleMasonbrokeisfussyandsomewhatantiquated,andtheideathattheinvestingpublicneedstobeprotectedfromCEOsbraggingabouttheirownbusinessesisodd.
Amatureexecutiveshouldknowbetterthantobreakthelaw,butnobodyisshockedtolearnthatinnovatorssometimesbristleatthesekindsofrules.
Groupon'sproblemtodayisthatthenewaccountingmix-upisboundtoremindpeopleofthecompany'sveryfirstaccountant-relatedcontroversy,theirdeparturefromGenerallyAcceptedAccountingPrinciplesintheirinitialIPOfiling.
Onpaper,thiswasclearedupswiftly.
TheSECdidn'tlikeGroupon'sheavyrelianceonanon-GAAPmethod,segmentsofthebusinesspresshowledinoutrage,andthecompanyfiledanewS-1thatde-emphasizedthenewfangledAdjustedConsolidatedSegmentOperatingIncome.
Groupon'sproblemisthatthiswasn'taquestionoffussyrulesbutrepresentedarealdifferenceintheoryabouthowtothinkaboutthebusiness.
AndGrouponisprobablywrong.
ThereasonwehaveGAAPisthatassessingabusiness'shealthisn'tassimpleaswatchingmoneyflowinandout.
Sometimesmoneygoesoutthedoorasanoperatingexpense,likewhenSlatepaysourelectricitybills.
Butsometimesyou'reinvestingintangibleassets,likewhenwebuydesksorcomputers.
Tangibleassetsaresometimesveryexpensive,buttheyalsolastalongtime.
Andtheymightlastdifferentamountsoftime.
Anairplaneoradeskretainsalotofvalue,whereasacomputerbecomesobsoleterelativelyquickly.
GAAPexistssothatdifferentfirmswithdifferentinvestmentsindifferentkindsofequipmentcanproducecomparablefinancialstatements.
WhydidGrouponuseadifferentmetricBecauseitwantedtoshowthatthecompanyhasaveryhealthyoperatingmarginifyouexcludethemarketingcostsincurredinitsefforttoobtainnewcustomers.
Ononelevel,theirpreferencefortheACSOImetrictoldusnothing.
It'snothingnewfortechstartupstoprioritizegrowthoverprofitabilityintheirearlystages.
Buttherewasanimportantunderlyingtheoryhere:thatthedealindustryhasstrongnetworkeffortsandhighbarrierstoentry.
OnceeveryoneisonFacebook,thefactthateveryoneelseisonFacebookbecomesagoodreasontobeonFacebook.
Andsinceeveryone'sonFacebook,everyonewantstodevelopapsforFacebook,whichbecomesanothergoodreasontobeonFacebook.
Inabusinesslikethat,doingwhateverittakestoobtainadominantpositionisthesmartstrategy.
SoGrouponmightneedtoincurgiganticmarketingexpensestogeteveryonetosignup,butthenshouldbeabletoeaseupandearnhealthyprofitsbycheaplyre-pingingexistingcustomers.
Theproblemisthatit'sneverbeenclearwhyweshouldbelievethis.
Asopposedtothemassivecostsofstartingupanewsocialnetwork,therearenomeaningfulbarrierstoentryinthedealsfield.
GrouponcompeteswithLivingSocial,andthegrowthofthosetwocompanieshasspawnedanendlessseriesofimitators.
WhatGrouponacquireswithitsmarketingdollarsislittlemorethanacustomer'semailaddress.
Anycompanycouldgooutandbuyalistofsimilaremailaddresses(whichcouldbeproperlyaccountedforasaninvestment)formuchlessthanGrouponspendsonmarketing.
TheriskforGrouponisthatthemarketleaderinthedailydealgamewillfinditselfinthepositionofaMcDonald'soraCoca-Cola.
You'dratherbeNo.
1inburgersorsodathanNo.
2,buttheseleadingbrandsarehardlyfreefromtheyokeofadvertisingcosts.
Instead,theadvantagesizegivesacompanylikeMcDonald'sisamplerevenuethatallowsthemtomountambitiousmarketingeffortstokeepthebrandshinyandvisible.
Thesecostsaren'tone-timeinvestments—they'reconstantexpensesinanever-endingstruggle.
There'snothingwrongwithbeingabusinesswithhighmarketingcosts,butifyou'reinamarketing-intensiveindustrythenyouneedrevenueshighenoughtocoveryourcosts.
Groupondoesn'thavethat,andlurkingbeneathitsvariousaccountingwoesisthedubiousunderlyingtheorythatthey'llneverneedthem.
没戏.
为什么你不该轻信Groupon模式背后的理论.
会计工作是无聊的.
高科技发明和快速发展的新事业更有趣.
但是有时无聊的事却很重要.
Groupon,这个在日常商业交易中发展迅速的市场领导者,其会计工作好像出了错.
星期五,这家公司重新发布声明称他们在2011年第四季度实际亏损6490万美元而不是原先报告的4270万美元.
这确实是个很尴尬的错误,但是更糟的是会计事务所,Ernst&Young公司说这不是个偶然事件,它反映出公司内部财务控制"本质上的缺陷".
但是更严重的问题不是亏损或重申,甚至不是控制的本质缺陷.
投资者应当警醒的是存在于Groupon案例潜在的商业模式中的实质性缺陷.

Q4中特殊的错误是与Groupon营业额进出的奇怪的时间息息相关.
在任何时间,这个公司都在销售各种"交易"——商品和服务的折扣.
由于Groupon卖的是一种交易,你得立马将钱付给他们.
钱随后在约定的时间付给服务提供商,在之后的时间里顾客再真正兑现他的优惠券.
随着Groupon开始转向出售高价值服务,Groupon允许顾客在特定情况下撤单并得到退款.
在最初的报表中,Groupon没有计算增长的退款,因此高估了收入.
Ernest&Young所指的实质性缺陷即指没有考虑退款的可能性.
不管是特殊错误还是会计程序存在问题都不是必须受到责.
Groupon已经是个收入高速增长的公司,因此公司的核心决策层将更多地注意力放在发展公司而不是围着会计程序打转是可以理解的.

如果Groupon10年来特别成功的商业案例,我们可将这场的早期会计小摩擦作为不断上演的野心勃勃的企业家与枯燥无味的会计师之间文化碰撞的有趣轶事.
在CEOAndrewMason的一份备忘录中记载了在他之前与证券和交易管理委员会的一场冲突中吹捧公司前景的故事在上市前的"安静期"漏露出来也映证了该事.
Mason所打破的规则是挑剔甚至有点过时,同时保护投资者不受CEO们吹嘘公司所害的想法也较少见.
一位成熟的决策者应该有清晰的头脑而不是违反法律,但是得知创新者有时对这些规定火冒三丈也没人会感到惊讶.

Groupon今天的问题是新的会计混乱提醒人们该公司关于会计师的争论,在他们一开始为满足IPO条件时就远离了一般公认的会计准则.
这个问题已通过书面形式被迅速处理.
SEC并不喜欢Groupon违反一般公认的会计准则的做法,商业新闻对此义愤填膺,同时公司发布一份新的S-1文件,其中降低了最新的调整巩固模块经营的收入.
Groupon的问题并不在于苛刻的规章而是体现了在思考如何经营中理论上的差异.
并且Groupon或许错了.

一般公认的会计准则存在的理由在于帮助公司健康发展,而不是记录资金流进流出般简单.
有时资金作为运营开支流出,例如Slate付电费时的开支.
但有时你投资于有形资产,比如我们买桌子或电脑.
有形资产有时会昂贵,但是他们会使用很长时间.
他们能够使用的时间不尽相同.
一架飞机或是一张桌子会保持一定价值,然而一台电脑报废相对较快.
因为GAAP的存在,不同的公司投资于不同的设备便能做出具有可比性的财务报表.

为什么Groupon要使用另一套方法呢因为它想要现示出,当除去那些为了保留保新顾客而产生的营销支出,它便拥有很健康的营业利润.
某种程度上,他们对ACSOI方法的偏爱并没告诉我们任何事.
对于高科技创业者在创业初期将增长速度放于营利能力之前的做并无新奇.
但是在这其中有一条潜在的理论:贸易行业有着很强的网络和很高的进入壁垒.
一旦每个人都上Facebook,那么其他人都在上Facebook就成为上Facebook的一个很好的理由.
因此,一旦每个有都在Facebook上,那么每个人都想为Facebook开发应用,这又成为上Facebook的另一个很好的理由.
在这样一个商业环境中,不管做什么都能保持领导地位的方法就是睿智的战略.
因此Groupon便会发花大量的营销开支使每个人都来注册,但是之后应该减少开支并通过低成本地激发现在顾客来赢得健康的利润.

问题在于永远也搞不清楚为什么我们应该相信这些.
与新建一个社交网络的巨大开支相反的是,在这个行业并没有太多的壁垒.
Groupon与LivingSocial是竞争对手,两家公司的发展都产生了无数的模仿者.
Groupon需要的营销资金只不过用于够买顾客的邮件地址.
任何一家公司都能花比Groupon少得多的钱来够买相同的邮件地址清单(这可能算得上一项投资).

Groupon的风险在于市场领导者在日常养商业游戏中发现自己处于同麦当劳或可口可乐一样的境地.
你要做卖汉堡或是卖可乐的第一名,而不是第二,但是这些大品牌们很难从广告开支的束缚中脱身.
然而,规模优势使像麦当劳这样的公司有大量收入,这样收入又允许他们提升雄心勃勃的营销能力使品牌光鲜可见.
这些开支并不是一次性的,它们是没有止境的持续的花费.
如果你处于一个营销密集的行业,且有高额利用来承担这些花费的话,那么花大量的营销费用进行经营并没有什么不对.
但Groupon没有,潜伏在它各种会计困难之下是的一套他们原本根本不需要的含混不清的潜在理论.

Charlemagne:StillsicklyTheeurozone'sillnessisreturning.
Acurerequiresmoreintegration,butGermanyisn'tkeenWHENtheeditorsoftheGermantabloidBildmetMarioDraghirecentlytheygavehimaPickelhaube—aspikedhelmet—toremindtheItalianthattheyhadlastyeardepictedhiminPrussiangarbasthemostGermanicofcandidatestoruntheEuropeanCentralBank.
Itmaycomeinuseful:hardlinersaretakingshotsatMrDraghiforsprayingbankswith1trillion($1.
3trillion)ofcheapmoney.
This"powerfuldrug"mayhaveside-effects,hesays,butitworks:"Theworstisover"fortheeurozone.
Don'tbesosure.
ThefeverhasbeenrisingagaininSpainafterthegovernmentwildlyovershotitsdeficittargetlastyear.
TheItalianprimeminister,MarioMonti,expressedalarm(whichhelaterwithdrew)thattheSpanishillnessmightharmhisowncountry'sconvalescence.
PortugalandIrelandareinrecession,andmayneedsecondbail-outs;Greecewillprobablyrequireathirdrescue(andtherestructuringofofficialdebt).
Asfearreturns,sohavecallstoboosttheeurozone'srescuefunds.
"Themotherofallfirewallsshouldbeinplace,strongenough,broadenough,deepenough,tallenough—justbig,"saysngelGurría,secretary-generaloftheOECD,therich-worldthink-tank.
ButGermanyprefersaslow,incrementalresponse.
Thelatestsignalisthatitwillagree,atameetingoffinanceministersinCopenhagenonMarch30thand31st,toraisethefirewallsomewhat.
Thetemporaryrescuefund,theEuropeanFinancialStabilityFacility(EFSF),wouldbeallowedtooverlapwiththepermanentnewEuropeanStabilityMechanism(ESM),whichistobeactivatedthissummer.
Bycombiningthetwofunds,perhapsonlyforayear,thelendingcapacitycouldberaisedfrom500billiontoabout740billion.
ThismaybeenoughtopersuadetheChinese,theAmericansandotherstoallowtheIMFtoincreaseitsresources,sohelpingthedefences,butitishardlytheoverwhelmingforceMrGurríaseeks.
Germanyworriesthatreducingthepressureonweakstateswillleadtocomplacency.
"TheGermansthinkthattheonlywaytomakecountriesreformistodanglethemoutofthewindow,"saysonediplomat.
"Thisonlyreinforcesthebeliefinthemarketsthattheeurozoneisontheedgeofdisaster.
"OneworryingsignforGermanywasSpain'spartlysuccessfulattempttoloosenitsdeficittargetthisyear.
Anotherisgrowingtroubleoverthe"fiscalcompact",atreatysignedby25EuropeanUnioncountriestotoughenbudgetdiscipline.
Ireland,withahistoryofawkwardvotesonEUtreaties,holdsareferendumonMay31st.
TheSocialistfront-runnerintheFrenchpresidentialelection,FranoisHollande,wantstorenegotiatethedealtoincludemorefocusongrowth.
Germany'soppositionSocialDemocratsaremakingsimilarnoises.
IntheNetherlandstheoppositionLabourParty—whichissupposedtosupporttheminoritygovernmentonEuropeanissues—threatenstoblockratificationifthegovernmentimposesausteritytomeetnextyear'sdeficittargetof3%ofGDP.
(Ill-disciplinedcountriesthathavereceivedatongue-lashingfromtheDutcharesavouringtheirony.
)Evenassumingallthesedifficultiesareresolved,thefateoftheeurowillremainuncertain.
Raisingthefirewallandratifyingthecompactwilladdressonlysomeofthesymptoms.
Acurerequires"treatingthewholepatient",assetoutrecentlyinaclear-eyedpaperbyJayShambaughforBrookings,anAmericanthink-tank.
Itsaystheeurozoneisafflictedbythreeills:abankingcrisis,asovereign-debtcrisisandagrowthcrisis.
Dealingwithoneoftenmakestheothersworse.
Abigproblemisthattheeurozoneisonlypartlyintegrated.
Itsmembershavegivenupeconomictools,suchascurrencydevaluationandmonetarypolicy,yetlack"federal"instrumentstocopewithshocks.
Theproblemisnotsomuchthebudgetdeficit(thoughGreecewascertainlyprofligate)asthenetforeignborrowingbyallactors,publicandprivate(saytofinanceatradedeficit).
Theeurozonehasonlysmallinternaltransfers,anditsworkerstendnottomovefarforwork.
Fiscalstimulusisimpossibleformostgovernments,giventheirindebtedness.
Structuralreformstopromotegrowthcantakeyearstowork.
Soredressingtheimbalancesmustcomethrough"internaldevaluation":bringingdownrealwagesandpricesrelativetocompetitors.
Thiswaseasierbefore1991,wheninflationaroundtheworldwashigher,buthasrarelybeenachievedsincethen(HongKongisoneexception).
WiththeECBdeterminedtokeepinflationataround2%,internaldevaluationbringssevererecession,evendepression.
AndfallingGDPwrecksthedebtratio.
MrShambaughofferssomeadvice.
DeficitcountriescouldcutpayrolltaxestoreducelabourcostsandraiseVATtodiscourageimports;theeffectwouldbemagnifiedifsurplusstatesdidtheopposite.
Germanycouldhelpbystimulatingitseconomy,oratleastslowingdownitsbudgetconsolidation.
TheECBcouldletinflationrunhigher,especiallyinGermany,andcoulddeclarethatitstandsfullybehindsolventsovereigns.
TheEFSF/ESMcouldrecapitaliseweakbanks.
AEurope-widebank-depositinsuranceschemewouldhelp.
Mutualisingpartofthenationaldebtswouldcreatearisk-freeEuropeanasset.
TheGermanproblem(again)Alltheseoptionsultimatelyrunintothesameobstacle:Germany.
Itdoesnotwanttobearbiggerliabilities,itwantstosetanexampleofbudgetdiscipline,itrefusestocompromiseitscompetitiveness,itisallergictoinflation,itdoesnotwanttheECBtoprintmoneyanditthinksEurobondscreatemoralhazard.
Thereislittlesignthatthechancellor,AngelaMerkel,isreadytodomuchbeyondtweakingthefirewallandpushingthroughthefiscalcompact.
Shetalksofafuture"politicalunion".
Ifshereallywantstosavetheeuro,shewillhavetoputonaPickelhaubeandleadthewaytogreaterfiscalfederalism.
欧元区,病未痊愈欧元区的问题又回来.
要治本需要更大范围的整合,但是德国热情不高.
近期德国画报《图片报》(Bild)的编辑们与马里奥·德拉吉(MarioDraghi)会面时,他们送给他一顶Pickelhaube――一种尖刺头盔――以提醒这位意大利人,在去年他们曾把普鲁士着装风格的他描述成最有德国人作风的欧洲央行行长竞选者.
这头盔或许会派上用场:强硬派大肆攻击他向欧盟各国银行散发1万亿欧元(约合1.
3万亿美元)的低息贷款.
他说,这剂"特效药"也许会有副作用,但确实有用:"对于欧元区来讲,最糟糕的已经过去了.
"别如此肯定.
去年,在西班牙政府鲁莽地超出其赤字目标之后,欧洲经济又一直发高烧.
意大利总理马里奥·蒙蒂(MarioMonti)表示他的担忧(后来他收回此种担忧):西班牙患病可能会伤害到意大利(国内的经济)的康复.
葡萄牙和爱尔兰经济不景气,也许需要第二轮经济援助;希腊可能需要第三轮经济援助(和调整国债).

对于经济形式的恐慌也造成欧元区金融救助金(译注:即金融防火墙)的攀升.
"所有防火墙的根本必须是到位的,够强,够宽,够深,够高――不仅仅是大,"经济合作与发展组织(OECD)秘书长安吉尔·葛利亚(ngelGurría)谈到.
经济合作与发展组织也被成为"富人世界的智囊团".
但是,德国更喜欢一种缓慢的,逐渐增长的(市场)反应.
3月30日至31日,在哥本哈根的一次财长会议时,德国表示同意在一定程度上提高(金融)防火墙水平,这也是德国发出的最新信号.
临时救援基金,即欧洲金融稳定基金(EuropeanFinancialStabilityFacility,EFSF),将会欧洲稳定机制(EuropeanStabilityMechanism,ESM)交叉存在.
欧洲稳定机制是一种永久性的,全新的基金援助体制,将会在今年夏天启用.
通过结合两种基金,也许仅需一年,欧洲稳定机制的借贷能力就可以从5千亿欧元提高到7千4百亿欧元.

这也许能够说服中国,美国和其他国家允许国际货币基金组织(IMF)增加援助,以增强欧洲的金融防御,但是这几乎不是葛利亚所追求的能够压倒一切的力量.
德国担心减轻经济衰退国家的压力会滋生自满情绪.
"德国人认为唯一促使各国改革的方法就是让负债的国家自生自灭,"一位外交官谈到,"这只会让市场更坚信欧元区正处于灾难边缘".

德国担心的一个方面是今年西班牙部分成功尝试放宽该国的财政赤字目标.
另外一个方面在于"财政紧缩"问题上麻烦不断.
为了严格预算自控,欧盟25国签署了一项协议.
尽管在欧盟条约公投上有过尴尬的往事,爱尔兰3月31日开始全民公投.
在法国总统选举中领先的社会党总统候选人弗朗索瓦·奥朗德(FranoisHollande),打算重新对该协议进行谈判,以囊括更注重经济增长的决策.
德国反对党社会民主党(SocialDemocrats)也表达了相同的言论.
荷兰的反对党工党(LabourParty)――被认为是支持欧洲事务的少数派政府――如果执政党政府实施财政紧缩以期实现明年财政赤字占GDP3%的目标,工党威胁说将阻止财政紧缩方案的通过.

即使假设所有这些问题都得到解决,欧元区的命运仍然是未知数.
提高金融防火墙和批准金融紧缩只是针对局部病症.
正如美国智囊团布鲁金斯研究院的杰伊·项博(JayShambaugh)近期发表的一篇思路清晰的文章中谈及,治愈则需要"治本".
文章中谈到三种疾病折磨着欧元区:银行业危机,国债危机和经济增长危机.
处理一个方面通常会恶化其他两个方面.

欧元区的的一大问题在于其部分整合性.
它的成员国放弃了如货币贬值,货币政策经济等手段,同时缺少"联邦的"手段来应付经济动荡.
问题所在与其说是预算赤字(虽然希腊确实浪费),不如说是所有政府和私营的净外贷(说是提供贸易逆差的资本).
欧元区内仅有小部分的内部转移,工人不愿意为了工作而迁徙.
考虑到各国的债务,大多数政府来无法实施财政刺激.
以结构性改革推动经济增长需要多年才会奏效.

因此纠正不平等必须通过"内部贬值":相对于竞争对手,下调实际工资,降低价格.
在1991年之前,这要简单的多,当时的世界范围内的通胀较高,但是以后几乎没有谁能做到(香港是一个例外).
随着欧洲中央银行(ECB)决定保持2%左右的通胀率,内部贬值会导致严重经济衰退,甚至是经济大萧条.
同时,下滑的国内生产总值(GDP)会破坏负债率.

项博提出了一些建议.
贸易逆差的国家可以减少工资总额的税收,达到减少劳动力成本,提高增值税(VAT)来抑制进口;如果其余国家采取相反方式,作用将会扩大.
德国通过刺激国内经济可以提供帮助,或者至少放缓国内的预算整合步伐.
欧洲中央银行应允许较高的通胀率,特别是在德国国内.
同时表明自己全力支持有偿还债务能力的国家.
金融稳定基金或欧洲稳定机制可再注资弱小的银行.
一种全欧洲的银行存款保险方案也会有所帮助共同分担国内债务将会形成无风险的欧洲资产.

德国问题(老生常谈)所有这些选择最终遇到同样的障碍:德国.
德国不想承担更大的债务,他想树立一种预算自律的榜样,它拒绝放弃自己的竞争力,它对通货膨胀过敏,它不想欧洲央行印钞票,它想欧洲债券(Eurobonds)建立道德风险(moralhazard).
有些迹象表明德国总理安吉拉默克尔准备在挤压金融防火墙之外,采取更多措施,并且推动金融紧缩.
她谈及一个未来的"政治联合".
如果她真想拯救欧元区,她将不得不带上一顶尖刺头盔,带头迈进更大范围的金融联邦制度.

America'sJOBSAct——UncuffingcapitalismAwelcomeattempttorestoretheappealofinitialpublicofferingsinAmericaHAVINGspentyearsheapingnewrulesontoitsfinancialmarkets,Americaisabouttotakeamodeststepintheoppositedirection.
OnMarch27thCongresspassedtheJOBS(or,ratherludicrously,"JumpstartOurBusinessStart-ups")Act,whichaimstorevivegrowthbyeasingtheregulatoryburdenoncompaniesseekingtoraisecapital.
Theactisdesignedtoaddressthedeclineininitialpublicofferings(IPOs).
From2001to2011theannualtallyofsmallcompaniesgoingpublicinAmericawas80%lowerthanintheprevioustwodecades.
TheIPOdroughtdoesnotmeanfirmscannotraisecapital.
Thereareplentyofotherwaysforthemtodoso,fromprivateequityandprivateplacementstobankloans.
Butthepublicmarketsserveauniquepurpose:theyprovidecapitaldirectlytoyoung,growingfirms,giveearlyinvestorsameanstocashoutandenableordinaryinvestorstostakeaclaiminthefortunesofthosefirms.
Therearemanyreasonsforthedrought.
Rich-worldeconomiesarenotexactlyfizzing,andfirmsfromemergingmarketsthatoncesoughtrespectabilitybylistingintheWestnowhaveoptionsathome.
Butonerousregulationsarealsotoblame.
Americahasmorethanitsfairshareofthose.
FromSarbanes-OxleytoDodd-Frank,policymakershaverespondedtocrisisandscandalwithevermorestricturesonaccounting,auditing,pay,governanceandWallStreetresearch.
Someofthiswasneededtomakemarketsworkbetter.
Bybolsteringinvestors'confidenceinthemarketplace,regulationcanhelpcompaniesraisecapital.
Buttoomanynewrulesimposecoststhatexceedtheirbenefits:theintensivereviewofinternalcontrolsrequiredbySarbanes-Oxleyisoneexampleamongmany.
Bossesoflistedfirmsgripethattheyspendmoretimecomplyingwithrulesthancookingupnewproducts.
Moreworryingly,firmsthatinpreviousdecadesmighthavegonepubliclookattheredtapeanddecidenotdoso.
Start-upsusedtodreamoftopplingincumbents;nowtheyaimtosellthemselvestoGoogleorApple.
Creativedestructionismuffled.
TwocheersforthederegulatorsTheJOBSActwouldmakeiteasierforyoung,growingcompaniestogopublicbyreleasingthemfromsomeoftheauditingoversightrequirementsofthe2002Sarbanes-OxleyAct.
Itwouldloosentherestrictionsoncommunicationbetweencompaniesabouttogopublicandinvestors,onunderwriters'research,andontheadvertisingofnewshareofferings.
Suchstepswouldreducecompliancecostswhileprovidinginvestorswithmoreinformation.
Alas,otherpartsofthelawdepriveinvestorsofhelpfuldisclosures.
Ayoungfirmcouldreleasejusttwoyearsofauditedstatementsinsteadofthree,andaprivatefirmcouldavoidregisteringitsshareswiththeSecuritiesandExchangeCommission(whichtriggersbroaddisclosurerequirements)untilithas2,000shareholders,upfromthecurrent500.
Thiswouldallowfartoomanycompaniesthatare,defacto,publiclyheldtoevadedisclosureand,perversely,reducetheincentivetogopublic.
Thelawalsogoestoofarinwaivingmostregistrationrequirementsforfirmsthat"crowdfund"(ie,raisesmallamountsofmoneyfromlotsofinvestorsovertheinternet).
Crowdfundingisanefficientwayforentrepreneurstoraiseseedcapital.
Butitisalsoagoodwayforhucksterstofleecesuckers.
TheSenatewiselyinsertedmodestdisclosurerequirements.
Moresafeguardsareneeded,especiallyinthecaseofthebrokerswhoselltheshares.
TheJOBSActisnotperfect.
ButitstartstocuttherulesthatcuffAmericancapitalismandshouldthusbeapplauded.
美国的JOBS法案——为资本主义松绑在美国,让首次公开募股(IPO)重获青睐的努力深受民众欢迎在连续数年出台堆积如山的金融市场的新规后,美国将一反常态,意欲适度松绑其法规.
2012年3月27日国会通过了旨在减轻对需融资企业的监管负担以重振经济发展的JOBS法案(即较匪夷所思的"全力以赴加快新创企业发展方案).

该法案旨在解决首次公开发行股票(IPOS)的企业数量下降的问题.
从2001年至2011年,美国每年上市的小企业数与前二十年相比下跌了80%.

"IPO荒"并不意味着企业无法筹集到资本.
企业有等多种渠道融资,可以从私募股权或私募配售中融资或从银行贷款.
但是,公开市场能提供独一无二的服务:直接向蓄势待发的新兴公司提供资本;给早期投资者提供了一个将所持股票套现的工具并能让普通股东对上市公司的财产提出相应的所有权要求.

这种"IPO荒"是由诸多原因导致的.
发达国家的经济实在是杳无生机,而且那些曾通过从西方国家上市以获得商业信誉的新兴市场企业现不出国门也可享受同等待遇.
然而,手续繁杂也是导致"IPO荒"罪魁祸首之一.

美国不仅仅是要实现公平的分配.
从萨班斯-奥克斯利法案(Sarbanes-Oxley)至多德弗兰克法案(Dodd-Frank)的颁布表明,决策者对各种危机和丑闻的反应始终是对会计、审计、薪资、政府和华尔街研究的横加指责.
有些规定是为促进市场更好运转而必不可少的.
通过增加投资者对市场的信心,法律法规可帮助公司实现融资.
但是太多的新规导致成本远超过其所带来的效益:萨班斯-奥克斯利法案要求强化内部控制检查的规定便是这些条条框框的一个例子.

上市公司的老板报怨说,遵守规则的过程比设计新产品的时间还长.
更令人担忧的是,过去几十年来,那些有可能上市的公司可能因看到繁文缛节而退避三舍.
在过去新创企业梦想着要打败现有的竞争对手,而现在他们的目标是把自己出售给谷歌或苹果这样的产业巨头.
导致企业的创造性破坏裹足不前.

撤销管制带来的两大优点JOBS法案让那些谋求上市且羽翼未丰的成长型企从2002年颁布的萨班斯-奥克斯利法案中的一些审计监督要求中解放出来.
新法案将放松对即将上市的公司和投资者之间沟通要求的限制;放宽对股票承销商的研究和新股上市规定.

这些措施将减少遵从成本的同时还能为投资者提供更多的信息.
唉,该法令的其他部分却剥夺投资者享有更多有用的公司披露资料的权利.
年轻的公司可只发布两年期而非三年期的审计报告;而且,须在证券交易委员会(SecuritiesandExchangeCommission)登记股票资料(这导致大量的信息披露要求)的私营企业其股东数从现在要求的500名以上提升至2000名以上.
这实际上会让越来越多的上市公司一意孤行,公然逃避信息的披露而且会事以愿违,减弱公司上市的诱因.

该法令在对那些需"密集型筹资"((如通过网络从众多投资者中筹得小额资金))的公司免除大部分注册要求上也有点过犹不及.
密集型筹资是企业家筹集种子基金的最有效的方法.
但也为那些强行推销者引"傻瓜们"上钩而大开方便之门.
参议院明智地增加了对公司披露资料的适度要求.
该法案需要增加更多的防范措施,尤其应加强经纪人在出售股票时的操作.

JOBS法案并非十全十美.
然而,首开了减少美国资本主义"紧筘咒"的先河,因此应值得大家拍手称赞.

Investment(投资)GoldBecomesPricierThanPlatinum,That'sRareAndScaryIt'smorethan"interesting"thatplatinumpricesarelagginggold.
GoldhasrisennicelysincethemeltdownfollowingLehman'scollapse,withthegoldpriceindollarsrising130%.
Untillastsummer,however,platinumhaddonebetterstill.
Indeed,atrader"couldhavemadealotofmoneybuyingplatinumandsellinggoldsinceLehmanBrothers,"asPhilipKlapwijk,executivechairmanofGFMSsaidWednesday,takinganalystquestionsafterlaunchingtheprecious-metalsconsultancy'snewGoldSurvey2012atThomsonReuters'HQinLondon.
Overthe34monthstoAugust2011,thewhitemetalrose150%,recoveringfasteratfirsteventhanthegoldprice.
Butitneededto,however,afteritdroppedtwo-thirdsofitsdollarpricebetweenMarchandDecember2008.
Sincelastsummer,platinumhasslippedfasterthangold.
Morenotably,it'sslippedbelowthegoldpriceitself,somethingseenforonlythreetradingdaysinDecember2008intheimmediateaftermathofLehman'sbankruptcy.
Beforethat,youhavetogobacktotherecessionof1991…thepeakofthe"strongdollar"disinflationof1984…theglobalstockmarket'sonce-in-a-generationlowof1982…andgold'sbigtopsofJan.
1980andDec.
1974tofindplatinumtradingcheaperthanthegoldprice.
Gold'slatestincursionabovetheplatinumpriceis"interesting,"saidGFMS'sKlapwijkonWednesday.
Butscarymightbeclosertoit.
Runningfor145ofthelast172tradingdays,it'sgettingtobesomethingofahabit,too.
"There'sacasetobemadeforthewhitemetalbeingpricedatapremiumtogold,"asKlapwijksaid.
Thetwometals'scarcityintheearth'scrustisaboutthesame,butplatinumdepositstendtobemorediffuse,makingextractionmorecostly.
Onthedemandside,itisclearlymore"useful"thangoldtoo,withonethirdofannualoutputgoingtoindustryandanotherthirdgoingtomakeauto-catalystsaccordingtoplatinumexpertsJohnsonMatthey.
Fully85%ofglobalgolddemand,incontrast,isforstore-of-valueoradornment.
Andthere'stherub.
Thevastmajorityofinvestorswillalwaysprefergoldoverplatinum,asKlapwijknotedthisweek,becauseitsstore-of-valueuseissoverymuchgreaterthanplatinum's.
Youcouldascribethatto50centuriesofhabit,goldbeing"theuniversalprizeinallcountries,allculturesandinallages,"asphysicistandpolymathJacobBronowskiputitinhisAscentofMan.
Todaythathistoryissupportedbythesecond,strongerpointwhichKlapwijkmadeWednesday:gold'srelativelackofindustrialuse.
Thatmakesitafarbetterdefenseagainstthekindofeconomicturmoilsufferedsinceourfinancialcrisisbrokeinmid-2007(platinumup24%,thegoldpriceup153%),aswellastheeconomiccrisesofthemid-1970sandearly'80s.
Overthelast9monthsinparticular,Europe'seconomiccrisishasaffecteditsvehicledemand,GFMSpointsout.
Thatmeanslowerdemandfordieselenginesandthusplatinum-basedcatalystsworldwide.
GoldmayhavesufferedsimilarlylowerdemandamongstWesternjewelryconsumers,butEurozoneinvestorshavesteppedintopickupthatslack.
AndtheircounterpartsinAsiaarebuyinggoldwithbothhands,accordingtoGFMS'snewGoldSurvey2012,alongwithprettymuchanyoneelsewhocarestolook.
黄金价超铂金,岂有此理铂金价格目前赶不上黄金价格,这不只是"耐人寻味".
自雷曼兄弟公司破产拉开金融危机序幕以来,黄金价格出现了一轮非常不错的上涨行情,按美元计的黄金价格期间涨幅达130%.
然而,直到去年夏天为止,铂金价格此前走势相比黄金更为强劲.

事实上,正如全球知名贵金属咨询公司GFMS(译注:以前曾称作黄金矿业服务公司,现已更名为原名的首字母缩略词)执行董事长菲利普·克拉普维克(PhilipKlapwijk)周三所述,在雷曼兄弟公司破产后,交易者"如果做多铂金同时做空黄金的话,能够赚到许多钱.
"克拉普维克在GFMS于汤森路透公司(ThomsonReuters)伦敦总部发布最新的《2012年黄金调查报告》(GoldSurvey2012)后回答分析师提问时,发表了上述言论.
从雷曼兄弟公司破产到2011年8月的34个月期间,铂金价格上涨了150%,其最初反弹回升的速度甚至超过了黄金价格.
但它确实需要这样,因为在2008年3月至12月期间,按美元计价的铂金价格暴跌了三分之二.

自去年夏季以来,铂金价格下跌速度超过了黄金价格.
更值得注意的是,铂金价格跌到低于黄金价格的水平.
而在雷曼兄弟公司破产后的2008年12月期间,也只有三个交易日出现这种情况.
在此之前,你得回溯到1991年的经济衰退时期……1984年"强势美元"导致通胀放缓的高峰期……1982年全球股市处于一代人时间内的低谷期……以及1980年1月及1974年12月黄金价格涨至历史高位的时候,才能看到铂金价格低于黄金价格的现象.

GFMS的克拉普维克周三表示,黄金价格最近超过铂金价格颇为"耐人寻味".
或者说,让人觉得害怕更贴切些.
在过去的172个交易日中,有145个交易日黄金价格超过铂金价格.
而且,这种现象越来越成为一种"习惯".

正如克拉普维克所述:"铂金价格超过黄金价格是有理由的.
"这两种贵金属在地壳中的稀缺程度大致相同,但铂金矿藏往往更加分散,因而其开采成本更加昂贵.
而且,据铂金冶炼商庄信万丰(JohnsonMatthey)表示,在需求方面,铂金显然比黄金更加"有用",铂金年产量的三分之一用于工业领域,另有三分之一用于汽车尾气净化器装置的催化剂.
相比之下,全球黄金需求有85%是用于价值储存或装饰.
这便是黄金价格超过铂金的矛盾之处.

正如克拉普维克本周三所述,绝大多数投资者总是倾向于投资黄金而不是铂金,因为黄金的价值储存用途远超过铂金.
你可以把这归因于人类历时5,000年的习惯.
正如物理学家和博学家雅各布·布罗诺夫斯基(JacobBronowski)在其《人类的崛起》(AscentofMan)一书中所述,黄金长期以来一直是"所有国家、所有文化及所有时代的人们普遍珍视的财富.
"如今,这个历史得到了更为有力的第二个观点的支持——正如克拉普维克周三所述:即黄金相对而言缺乏工业用途.
这使得黄金成为我们自2007年中期爆发金融危机(迄今铂金价格上涨24%,而黄金价格上涨153%)以来防御经济危机的更好手段,也是防御1970年代中期和1980年度初期经济危机的更佳选择.

GFMS指出,尤其是在过去9个月期间,欧洲经济危机已对铂金在汽车工业领域的需求造成影响.
这意味着全球柴油发动机及催化剂的铂金需求明显萎缩.
在西方国家的珠宝消费者当中,黄金可能也遭受了类似的需求减少,但欧元区投资者出手弥补了黄金这方面的需求不足.
而根据GFMS最新发布的《2012年黄金调查报告》显示,亚洲投资者目前正全力以赴地购买黄金,外加几乎其他所有愿意关注黄金的投资者.

Gold'sDecade-LongBullRunIsDead,GartmanSaysBernankedeliveredthefatalblowtogold'stenyearbullmarket,accordingtoDennisGartman.
Goldhasbeeninbearterritorysincethesummerof2011,whenittoppedoutabove$1,900anounce,withthelatestpost-FOMCsell-offinflictingirreparabletechnicaldamage,hesays.
UBS'EdelTullyaddsthatmarkets'no-QE-for-nowrealizationwillpushgoldevenlower,probablydownto$1,550anounceoverthenextmonth.
Overthelastcoupleofyears,gold'sprecipitous,andcontinued,risefueledcausaltheories,withsomeinvestorsattributingittoU.
S.
dollarweakness,otherstoasafehaventradeinthefaceofwidespreadmarketturmoil,aninflationhedge,orwhatevertheycouldcorrelateachartwith.
Theyellowmetal,though,appearsasaHumeanexperimentincausality,marryingnosingletrend.
Goldhasfallennearly9%sincelateFebruary,tradingat$1,628.
5anounceonThursdayinNewYork.
Goldwentonarollercoasterrideoverthelast12months,risingtoanall-timehighabove$1,900lastspring,thentankingabout18%toDecember,thenrisingafurther15.
5%tothisFebruary.
AccordingtoGartman,gold'slatestpriceactionconfirmsthetrendlinehasclearlybeenbroken,indicatingwe'vebeeninabearmarketfor12months,sinceitpeaked.
InThursday'sGartmanLetter,"inretrospectitdoesappearthatgoldhasnotbeeninabullmarketbuthasindeedbeeninabearmarket"sinceAugust2011,whenitpeakedabove$1,900.
"Sincethen,"headded"eachnewinterimlowhasbeenlowerandeachnewinterimhighhasfollowed.
How,weask,hadwemissedthatfact!
"ThecatalystforthatrealizationhasbeentheFed,specificallythelatestFOMCmeetingandWednesday'sminutesfromthatmeeting.
Inboth,marketscaughtaglimpseofamoreoptimisticFedthat,whilekeepingtheoptiononthetable,hasseenthenecessityforafurtherroundofquantitativeeasingreducedbytheimprovedeconomicperformance.
UBS'EdelTullyadds:"Theminutespaintedarathermoreoptimisticviewongrowth,amoreconvincingtakeonthebasisforthedeclineintheunemploymentrateandmostworryinglyofallforgold,anacknowledgementbytheFedofthepotentialforachangeintheend-2014forwardguidance.
WiththeBernankeFedguidingmarketsoverthelastcoupleofyears,itshouldcomeasnosurprisethatgoldpricesareverysensitivetomonetarypolicy.
RecordlowinterestratesamidaweakglobaleconomypushednervousinvestorsoutofbothriskassetsandthesafetyofTreasuries.
AweakU.
S.
dollar,alongwithmassiveliquidityinjectionsviaQE,helpedinvestorslooktogoldforithasalwaysbeen:astoreofvalue.
NoQE3andhigherinterestratesbeforelate-2014wouldcausefurtherdamagetogold,asitwouldsignalanimprovingeconomicenvironmentwherecapitalshouldonceagainchannelintoproductive,andthusriskier,assets.
Fedunwindingwilldefinitelydealadeadlyblowtogoldbulls,sotherealquestioninvestorsshouldbeaskingis:areweoutofthewoodsyetIfthegradualpaceofeconomicimprovementintheU.
S.
andtherelativecalmofEuropeanmarketspersists,thentheglobaleconomymightbeclosetotheedgeofthosewoods.
Bernankehasremainedcautious,notingdownsiderisksstillabound,whileECBchiefMarioDraghiwasblunteronWednesdaysayingrisksaredefinitelyskewedtothedownside.
HousingmarketsintheU.
S.
remaindepressedandlabormarkets,whilehealthier,arestillrelativelyweak.
AmongthebestatillustratingthebearcaseisPeterSchiffofEuroPacificPreciousMetals.
"Don'tcatchtherecoveryfever"hetoldinvestorsinhisdailynewsletter,adding"therecoveryisnotonlygoingtofalter–it'sgoingtoevaporatelikethemirageitis!
"Schiffexpectssubstantiallyhigherinterestrates,whichwentuntestedintherecentstresstestsonbanks,toblowthelidoffmajorfinancialinstitutiosn.
LargeWallStreetnameslikeJPMorganChase,Citi,andBankofAmericahavereliedoncheapmoneyfromtheFedtokeepoperating.
Risinginflation,asaconsequenceofmoneyprintingandbondbuyingbytheFed,willforceBernanketoraiserates.
FromSchiff'snewsletter:"Infact,higherinterestratesarenotonlypossible,butprobable.
Thestresstestsassumelong-termTreasurynoteyieldsstayunder1.
8%;butthatfigureisthecurrentsix-monthlowonthe10-year,whichisalreadydraggingalongitshistoricalfloor.
AsIwrite,yieldsarealreadyupto2.
2%.
Thepost-waraverageisabout5.
2%–highenoughtocratertoday'sbankingsystem.
Thestageissetforgoldtocontinuefallingintheimmediate-term.
Higherinterestratesandanimprovedeconomicenvironmentsuggestit'stimetoputcapitalbacktowork.
Theimprovingoutlookdoesfacesubstantialthreats,though,particularlytheEuropeansovereigndebtcrisis(whichpromisestoflareupagain),whichcouldstokerecessionaryfears.
AddSchiff'spredictedinflation,andyoucouldseetheyellowmetalrallyrisethroughtheasheslikethephoenix.
Attheendoftheday,itallboilsdowntothetruestrengthoftheeconomicrecovery.
Staytuned.
黄金十年大牛市已然终结丹尼斯·加特曼(DennisGartman)认为,美联储主席伯南克对历时10年之久的黄金牛市给予了致命一击.
他表示,自金价在去年夏季突破1,900美元并创下历史高点以来,黄金一直处于熊市之中.
而最近这次美联储公开市场委员会(FOMC)议息会议后出现的金价下跌,对金价走势造成了不可挽回的技术性损害.
瑞银集团分析师埃德尔·塔利(EdelTully)补充说,市场认识到"美联储眼下不会推出新一轮量化宽松政策",这将促使金价进一步走低,很可能在未来一个月内下探至每盎司1,550美元.

在过去两年里,金价急速而连续的上涨促使市场出现各种因果理论,一些投资者把金价上涨归因于美元疲软,也有投资者将之归因于面对市场普遍动荡黄金可以作为一种避险资产、一种对冲通胀的工具,或是任何一种可以跟黄金关联起来的理由.
然而,黄金似乎是对因果关系进行的一场休谟式实验,并没有与任何单一趋势相结合.

自今年2月下旬以来,金价已下跌近9%,周四纽约金价已跌至每盎司1,628.
5美元.
黄金在过去12个月里如坐过山车般上下剧烈波动,先在去年春季上涨至每盎司1,900美元以上而创下历史最高名义价格,然后到去年12月份暴跌约18%,之后到今年2月份又上涨了15.
5%.

据加特曼分析,金价最近的走势证实其上涨趋势线显然已受到破坏,表明黄金自价格见顶以来处于熊市行情已有12个月了.
他在周四发表的《加特曼简讯》(GartmanLetter)中写道,"回顾过去,自2011年8月金价于每盎司1,900美元上方见顶以来,黄金似乎并没有处于牛市之中,而确实是处于熊市之中.
""自那以来,"他补充说,"金价的每一个新的低位都是越来越低,而随后出现的每一个新的高位也都是越来越低.
我们不禁要问,我们怎么没有认识到这个事实呢!
"促使我们认识到这个事实的催化剂是美联储,尤其是最近的FOMC会议及周三发布的该会议纪要.
在会议后发布声明以及会议纪要公布的时候,市场都得以窥知美联储对美国经济前景更趋乐观:美联储在把量化宽松的政策选择放在其考虑范围之内的同时,看到美国经济表现好转已使进一步推行量化宽松政策的必要性有明显减少.
瑞银集团的埃德尔·塔利表示:"此次FOMC的会议纪要对美国经济增长前景给予了更为乐观的看法,而根据失业率下降,这个观点更具说服力.
对于黄金而言,最令人担忧的是,美联储承认,未来有可能对2014年年底之后的预期政策指导予以调整.
"鉴于伯南克执掌的美联储在过去两年里一直在引导市场,金价对货币政策非常敏感也就不足为奇了.
在全球经济疲软之际,美国推行创纪录的超低利率,促使紧张不安的投资者纷纷逃离风险资产以及安全的美国国债.
美元疲软,加上通过量化宽松措施注入的大量流动性,助使投资者把黄金看作是它一直以来就担任的角色:保值工具.

美联储目前不会推行第三轮量化宽松,加上在2014年底前可能加息,这些都会对金价走势造成进一步的损害,因为这些迹象表明美国经济环境正在得到不断改善,投资者资金应该再次投向生产性(也就是风险更高)的资产.
美联储量化宽松政策的结束无疑会对黄金多头造成致命一击,所以投资者现在应该提出的真正问题是:美国经济已脱离困境了吗如果美国经济逐步改善以及欧洲市场相对平静的状况得以持续,那么全球经济可能已接近脱离困境的边缘了.
伯南克近来一直保持谨慎,指出美国经济的下行风险仍然大量存在,而欧洲央行行长德拉吉(MarioDraghi)周三坦率表示,目前诸多风险明显偏向下行.
目前美国住房市场依然低迷,而就业市场虽然略有起色,但仍然比较疲弱.

欧洲太平洋贵金属公司(EuroPacificPreciousMetals)首席执行官彼得·希夫(PeterSchiff)对看空美国经济前景给予了最好的理由阐述.
他在其每日投资简讯中告诉投资者:"不要卷入到对美国经济复苏的狂热迷信之中.
"他补充说:"美国经济复苏不仅将会止步不前——而且将会像海市蜃楼般消散无踪,而美国经济复苏现在就是一种海市蜃楼般的现象.
"希夫预计美国未来将大幅提高利率(这个情况在美联储最近对银行业的压力测试中没有予以测试),从而使主要金融机构面临的风险暴露出来.
诸如摩根大通、花旗集团和美国银行等华尔街知名金融机构一直仰赖美联储提供的低息资金来维持经营.
由于美联储滥发货币以及购买债券而导致的通胀率不断攀升,将迫使伯南克提高利率.
以下摘自希夫的每日简讯:"事实上,美联储加息不仅是有可能,而且是很可能发生的事情.
美联储对银行业进行的压力测试假设美国长期国债的收益率保持在1.
8%下方,但是1.
8%是10年期国债收益率最近6个月的最低水平,而10年期国债收益率早已处于历史低位.
就在我写本文之时,10年期国债收益率已经攀升至2.
2%.
二战后,美国10年期国债收益率平均是5.
2%左右——这个利率高得足以摧毁如今的美国银行体系.
"短期内金价势必继续下跌.
预期利率攀升及美国经济环境好转表明投资者目前是时候把资金重新投放到生产性资产之中.
然而,美国经济前景的改善确实也面临着诸多重大威胁,尤其是欧洲主权债务危机(很有可能再次恶化),这这可能激起投资者对经济衰退的担忧情绪.
加上希夫预期的通胀压力,你可能会看到黄金如凤凰涅槃般再度上涨.
最终这一切都归结到一个问题上,那就是美国经济复苏的真正力度.
让我们拭目以待吧.

WhyChinaLovesGoldSinceatleastlate2010,commentatorshavebeenpointingtomassivebuyingofgoldbytheChineseasanotherpropforthebarbarousrelic.
MuchofthechatterhasfocusedonsolvingtheapparentenigmaofwhyChinawouldwanttobuysomuchgold.
Butalookbackintohistoryshowsthatthere'snomysteryhere.
Thereisalongtradition,inChina'simperialdynasties,ofhoardingvastquantitiesofgold.
AccordingtoanarticleintheMay1942issueofTheJournalofEconomicHistorybyHomerDubs,ascholaratDukeUniversity,thetreasuryofEmperorWangMangheldroughly5millionouncesofgoldaroundA.
D.
23.
Anearlieremperor,Wu,hadamassed1.
6millionounces,reportedDubs.
Forcomparativepurposes,DubsestimatedthattheancientPersianempirecontrolledbarely1%asmuchgoldandthattheRomanimperialtreasuryatitspeakhadamassedonlyabout8%asmuchgoldastheancientChinesedid.
TheentirestockofgoldinmedievalEurope,reckonedDubs,amountedto3.
7millionounces,whileallthegoldminedduringtheSpanishexploitationoftheAmericasfrom1503to1660totaled5.
83millionounces.
Thus,theancientChineseimperialtreasurymayhaveheldoneofhistory'sgreatestsingleconcentrationsofgoldinoneplace.
SothereisampleprecedentforthehoardingofgoldbyaChinesegovernment.
Onewarningnote:WangMangendedupcontrollingsomuchgold,notedDubs,byforbiddinghisempire'scitizensfromowningit.
Intheyear6A.
D.
,theemperoressentiallynationalizedtheownershipofgold,confiscatingitfortheexclusiveuseofthegovernmentmuchasFranklinDelanoRooseveltdidintheU.
S.
in1933.
Goldmightgoupfromhere,oritmightgodown.
ButtheChinesearen'tthenewestbigplayerinthismarket.
They'retheoldest.
中国人为什么喜欢买黄金从至少2010年底以来,评论人士一直把中国民众大规模购买黄金的举动称为黄金这种"野蛮的遗迹"(凯恩斯语)的又一个支撑.
讨论的焦点主要在于破解这样一个貌似的谜团:中国为何想买那么多黄金.

不过,回顾一下历史就可以发现这毫不奇怪.
中国古代王朝有着大量囤积黄金的悠久历史.
据杜克大学(DukeUniversity)学者达布斯(HomerDubs)在《经济史杂志》(TheJournalofEconomicHistory)1942年5月期上发表的一篇文章说,公元23年前后王莽执政期间,国库拥有约500万盎司黄金.

据达布斯说,在王莽之前的汉武帝囤积了160万盎司黄金.
为做比较,据达布斯估计,古代波斯帝国控制的黄金仅相当于中国古代人的1%,而在罗马帝国鼎盛时期,国库囤积的黄金仅相当于中国古代人的约8%.

据达布斯说,中世纪欧洲的黄金总储备为370万盎司,而1503年至1660年西班牙殖民美洲时期的黄金总开采量为583万盎司.

有鉴于此,中国古代王朝的国库可能是历史上黄金储备最集中的一个地方.

所以,中国政府囤积大量黄金的做法不乏先例.
值得警惕的一点是:达布斯指出,王莽是通过禁止本国民众持有黄金而最终控制了如此多的黄金.
公元6年,王莽实际上将黄金所有权国有化,将私人手中的黄金充公,全部由政府使用,就像1933年美国总统罗斯福(FranklinDelanoRoosevelt)实施的做法一样.
金价可能从目前的价位上涨,也可能下跌.
但中国人并非黄金市场上初来乍到的大玩家,而是最古老的玩家.

India'sGoldImportsSetToResumeIndia'sgoldimportsareexpectedtoresumeasjewelersrestockandshoppersreturnaftertheendofa20-daystrikeprotestingnewtaxesonbullion.
'Allshopshavereopened,'saidPrithvirajKothari,presidentoftheBombayBullionAssociation.
'Golddemandshouldpickup.
InAprilandMay[combined],importswillbearounda100[metric]tons.
'WhilethatwouldbeapickupfromMr.
Kothari'sestimateof15to20tonsinMarch,April-Mayimportswouldstillbe30%belowthesameperiodlastyear.
Theretailersclosedtheirshopsmid-Marchafterthegovernmentdoubledtheimporttaxongoldto4%andimposedataxonthetradeofallgoldjewelry.
Thegovernmentsaidthetaxesweremeanttodiscourageconsumption,aslargebullionimportswerepushingupIndia'scurrent-accountdeficit.
ThereopeningofthegoldtradeinIndiahelpedpushgoldfuturespriceshigher.
GoldforAprildeliveryinNewYorkgained$14tosettleat$1,642.
50atroyounce.
Afterlosingbusinessfornearlyamonth,jewelersmostlyarelookingforthegovernmenttoscrapthedomestictaxwhenthefinanceministerreviewshisposition.
'Ifhedoesn't,wewillgoonstrikeagain,'saidHareshSoni,vicechairmanofAllIndiaGemsandJewelleryTradeFederation.
Jewelersaremostlyconcernedaboutthepaperworkaccompanyingthedomestictax.
Thetaxalreadyisimposedonlargergold-jewelrycompanies,andthefilingprocessiscomplicated.
Thenewtaxisexpandedtosmalljewelryshops,manyofwhichlackthefinancialresourcestohireaccountantsandfeargreaterscrutinyfromtaxofficials.
Highertaxes,however,hadlittleimpactonretaildemandMondayasshoppersreturnedtothereopenedjewelrystores.
'IwaswaitingforthestriketoendasIwantedtoorderapairofbanglesformywife'sbirthdayinJune,'saidChetanDani,a44-year-oldbusinessmanwhowasatMumbai'sZaveriBazaar.
GoldsalescouldpickupfurtherwithAkshayaTritiya,oneofIndia'sbiggestgold-buyingoccasions,whichfallsonApril24.
Moreover,theweddingseasonhasstartedinsomepartsofIndiaalready.
GoldisanintegralpartofmostIndianweddings.
'WegotcallsfromcustomerslookingtobuygoldonSaturdayitself,'saidKumarJain,vicepresidentofMumbaiJewellers'Association.
'Themarriageseasoniscontinuingandweareexpectinggooddemand.
'印度金店罢工结束黄金进口将恢复印度对黄金征收的新税引发了罢工.
在持续了20天的罢工结束后,随着珠宝商补充库存及消费者重返商店购买黄金首饰,预计印度的黄金进口将会恢复.

孟买黄金协会(BombayBullionAssociation)会长科萨里(PrithvirajKothari)说,所有的商店都恢复了营业,黄金需求应该会回升;今年4、5月份,黄金进口量总计将达约100吨.

尽管这个数字较科萨里预计的3月份15到20吨的黄金进口量有所上升,4、5月份的进口量仍将较去年同期低30%.

今年3月中旬,政府将黄金进口税提高了一倍至4%,并对全部黄金首饰交易征税,导致零售商关闭了店铺.
政府说,征税意在为黄金消费降温,因为大量的黄金进口开始推高印度的经常项目赤字.

印度黄金交易的恢复帮助推高了黄金期货价格.
纽约4月交割黄金期货上涨14美元,至每盎司1,642.
50美元.

经过了近一个月的业务流失后,珠宝商普遍开始指望印度财政部长进行工作总结时会宣布取消国内黄金首饰交易税.
全印珠宝首饰交易联盟(AllIndiaGemsandJewelleryTradeFederation)副主席索尼(HareshSoni)说,如果不取消黄金首饰交易税,我们将再次罢工.
珠宝商普遍担心的是国内黄金首饰交易税的申报工作.
该税已经向较大的黄金首饰公司征收,申报过程还非常复杂.

新税将扩大到小型珠宝店,其中很多缺乏聘用会计师的经济实力,而且还可能面临税务官员更大力度的审查.

不过,增税周一对零售需求几乎没有造成影响,消费者重返恢复了营业的珠宝店.

孟买扎韦里集市(ZaveriBazaar)上的44岁商人达尼(ChetanDani)说,我正等着罢工结束,因为我想为太太6月份的生日订一对手镯.
随着4月24日AkshayaTritiya节的到来,黄金销量可能会进一步攀升.
AkshayaTritiya节是印度最大规模的黄金购买场合之一.
此外,在印度一些地区,婚礼季已经开始.
黄金是印度大部分婚礼必不可少的一部分.

孟买珠宝商协会(MumbaiJewellers'Association)副会长杰恩(KumarJain)说,上周六就已经有客户打电话过来想买黄金,婚礼季在继续,我们预计黄金需求会很旺盛.

Thenextlegofgold'sbullrunHasthegreatbullruningoldrunitscourseOnthesurfaceitlooksasifitmighthave.
Afterrunningupcloseto$2,000anounceduringthemarketpanicoflastautumn,ithasslippedbelow$1,700.
Anditshowslittlesignofreclaimingitshighs.
Buthere'sonereasonwhyitcouldhavealotfurthertogo.
Thebig,developedworldcentralbankswillstartbuyingagain.
Andiftheydo,itwouldputrealrocketfuelintothepriceofthepreciousmetal.
Inhisbudgetlastweek,BritishChancellorGeorgeOsbornecausedasmallflurryinthemarketswithalinethatsuggestedtheBankofEnglandmightstartstockpilinggold.
TheU.
K.
Treasuryquicklydeniedit,sayingthathehadjustbeentalkingaboutreservesingeneral,ratherthangoldspecifically.
Butinfact,Osbornewasontosomething.
Thedevelopedworldcentralbanksshouldallbeincreasingtheirreservesdramatically.
Thebestwaywouldbebyrefillingtheirvaultswiththepreciousmetal.
Inhisspeech,OsbornesaidthatheplannedtoincreaseBritain'sreserves,somethingmostdevelopedcountrieshavenotworriedaboutforthebestpartofthreedecades.
Theyarecertainlyinasorrystate.
Foramajordevelopedeconomy,theU.
K.
'sreservesarelaughablytiny.
Underthepreviousprimeminister,GordonBrown,thecountrysoldoffalotofitsgoldrightatthebottomofthemarket.
Itstotalreservesnowamounttojust$46billion.
Thatisupabitfromthe$34billiontheystoodatwhenthenewgovernmenttookoffice,mainlybecauseoftheincreaseinthevalueofitsgoldholdingsandalsotheextradepositscommittedtotheInternationalMonetaryFund.
ButtheU.
K.
'shoardofgoldandforeigncurrencyisdwarfedbyChina'sreserves,whichcurrentlystandatatowering$3.
18trillion,aswellasbyJapanwith$1.
2trillion,andbySaudiArabiawith$500billion.
Incommonwithmostdevelopedcountries—Japanexcluded—theU.
K.
hasnoreservesworthspeakingof.
Intruth,whatisinterestingishowlowthereservesheldbyallthedevelopednationsnoware.
SwitzerlandistheonlyEuropeancountrywithsignificantreserves,with$340billionsquirreledaway,whilstGermanyhas$257billion,andFrancehas$172billion.
TheU.
S.
onlyhas$148.
5billion,althoughwhenyoucanprinttheworld'sreservecurrencymaybethatdoesn'tmattersomuch.
Overall,however,itisonlytheemergingnationsthathavebuiltupsignificantcashpiles.
But,asOsbornehinted,theyneedtothinkaboutraisingthem.
Heprobablyisn'ttheonlyfinanceministertobeplanningonstockpilingmoreassets.
Eveniftheyarenottalkingaboutityet,otherswillhavethesameplan.
Here'swhy.
First,foreignexchangereservesarecriticalifyoufaceafinancialcrisis.
Ifthebankingsystemneedstobeproppedup,thenyouneedsomeassetstoplaywith.
Ofcourse,thecentralbankcanalwaysprintsomemoney.
Butinacrisis,themarketsmaydemandsomethingmoresolid–andthatmeanshavingreserves.
Next,theygiveyoutheabilitytointerveneinthecurrencymarkets.
TheU.
K.
hasmanagedtodevalueitscurrencysubstantially,oneofthefewfactorssavingitseconomyfromanoutrightdepression.
Othercountriesmaywanttodothesame—gettingyourexchangeraterightisakeyplankofeconomicpolicy.
Butyoucan'tmanipulatethemarketswithoutanythingtosell,andthatmeansholdingreserves.
Finally,thecreditratingagenciesoffsetreservesagainstgovernmentliabilities,sotheycanbecriticaltomaintainingyourcreditrating.
Formostofthelast50years,thedevelopednationshavenothadtoworryabouttheirbalancesheets.
Forthenext50years,withageingpopulations,andalreadydowningindebt,theywillhavetoworryaboutthemalot.
Themorereservesyouhave,thebetter(oratleastlessbad)yourbalancesheetlooks.
SowhatisthebestwaytoincreasereservesMostpapercurrenciesaresinkingfast.
ReserveswiththeInternationalMonetaryFundhavenorealsecurevalueandtheIMF'squasi-currency,knownastheSpecialDrawingRight,ismadeupoffourfunny-lookingpapercurrenciesratherthanjustone.
Butreservesheldingoldcanbeexpectedtogrowinvalueeveryyear.
Indeed,cynically,byholdingmoregoldcentralbanksareinsuringthemselvesagainsttheirownprofligacy.
Theyprintmoney.
Theypriceofgoldgoesup.
Andiftheyholdalotofthestuffintheirvaults,theyarethebigwinnersfromtheriseinprice.
Ifyoucanpullitoff—andthereisn'tanythingtostopyou—thatsoundslikeaneasywaytomakealiving.
Centralbanksintheemergingmarketsincreasingtheirholdingsofgoldhasbeenabigpartofthebullmarketinthemetal.
Attheendoflastyear,officialnetpurchasesofgoldstartedtorisedramatically.
Inthethirdquarterof2011,centralbanksadded148.
8tonnestotheirgoldstocks,morethandoubletheentireamountofgovernmentbuyingin2010,accordingtotheWorldGoldCouncil.
Interestingly,theGreekcentralbankhasbeenslowlyaddingtoitsholdingsofgold,whichwouldbesortofhandy,shouldtheyhappentodecidetore-introducethedrachmasoneday.
Butthenextphasewillbedevelopedworldcentralbanksmovingbackintopreciousmetal;theU.
K.
,Germany,France,SwitzerlandandpotentiallytheU.
S.
aswell.
TheU.
K.
hasgiventhefirsthintsthatpolicymakersareatleastthinkingaboutit.
Actualbuyingmaybesomewayoff.
Andiftheystart,itwillbedonediscreetly,otherwisethepricewillshootup.
Butwhenitstartstohappenseriously,itwillprovidethebullmarketingoldwithawholenewimpetus.
金价仍会上涨的几点理由黄金的迅猛涨势已经气数已尽了吗表面看来似乎如此.
在去年秋季的市场恐慌期,金价一度飙升至2,000美元每盎司,随后又回跌至1,700美元每盎司下方,而且几乎没有表现出什么重返高点的迹象.

不过,有一个理由能说明为什么金价还有很多上涨空间,那就是发达大国的央行将开始再次出手买入黄金.
如果他们这么做了,那将会实实在在地给金价注入飙升的动力.

在上周提交预算案发表演讲时,英国财政大臣乔治奥斯本(GeorgeOsborne)暗示英国央行或许会开始储备黄金的一句话引发市场发生了一阵小范围波动.
随后英国财政部迅速予以否认,称奥斯本只是在谈论一般的储备,而不是特指黄金.

但是,奥斯本确实是透露了一些苗头.
发达国家的央行都应该要大幅提高储备,最好的方法则是重新将金库装满黄金.

奥斯本在演讲中谈到,他计划增加英国的储备,大多数发达国家在形势最好的三十年里都不曾担心过这个问题.
显然它们现在的处境都不妙.
对于像英国这样的重要发达经济体,其储备真是少得可笑.

在前任首相戈登布朗(GordonBrown)的任期内,英国正好在市场最低点以低价卖掉了不少黄金.
如今其黄金总储备的价值只相当于460亿美元,比新任政府刚上台时的340亿美元高出一些,这主要得益于其黄金储备升值以及交托给国际货币基金组织(InternationalMonetaryFund)的那批额外储备.
然而,与中国的储备相比,英国的黄金和外汇储备就相形见绌了.
目前中国的储备高达3.
18万亿美元,日本和沙特的储备则分别为1.
2万亿美元和5,000亿美元.

与大多数发达国家情况相同(日本除外),英国没有一项值得一提的储备.
实际上,有趣的事情是当前所有这些发达国家的储备到底有多低.
瑞士持有价值3,400亿美元的储备,是唯一一个持有高额储备的欧洲国家,而德国和法国则分别为2,570亿美元和1,720亿美元.
此外,美国只持有1,485亿美元储备,尽管对于能够印发世界储备货币的国家来说,这或许算不上什么大问题.
然而,总的说来,目前的情况是只有新兴国家建立了巨大的现金储备.

不过,正如奥斯本所暗示的,这些发达国家需要考虑一下提高储备,他可能并不是唯一一个计划储备更多资产的财长.
即使英国不谈论这个问题,其他国家也将会做出同样的打算.

原因如下:首先,如果一个国家面临金融危机的话,外汇储备将起着至关重要的作用.
如果金融体系需要获得支撑,那么你需要一些资产去出手相助.
当然,央行总是能够自己印些钱,但在危机时期,市场可能会要求一些更稳健的资产,这就意味着你要持有储备.

其次,储备能让你具备干预货币市场的能力.
英国已成功使英镑大幅贬值,这是避免其经济陷入彻底衰退的几个举措之一.
其他国家或许也想这么做,因此保持恰当的汇率是经济政策的一个重要支持,但是你不能在没有任何东西可卖的情况下操纵市场,这也意味着你要持有储备.

最后,信用评级机构在评级时会以储备抵消政府债务,如此说来储备对维持一国的信用评级可能至关重要.
最近50年,大多数时候发达国家都用不着担心自己的财务状况.
然而,在未来50年,随着人口的老龄化,再加上陷入债务问题,这些国家将不得不非常关心储备问题.
持有的储备越多,你的财务状况看上去会更好(或者至少没那么坏).

那么,什么才是提高储备的最佳途径大多数纸币都在迅速贬值.
此外,存在国际货币基金组织的储备也不具有实际的保值价值,而且该组织的准货币(即"特别提款权")是由四种、而非只是一种纸币构成的.

可以期待的是,以黄金形式持有的储备有望逐年升值.
实际上,具有讽刺意味的是,众央行正通过增持黄金来应对自己滥发货币的行为.
它们一印钱,金价就会随之上涨.
如果它们储备了大量黄金,那么它们将是金价上涨的赢家.
如果能这么做的话(也没有什么事情能阻挡这种做法),这听上去倒是一个谋生的轻松方法.

增持黄金储备的新兴市场央行一直都是黄金牛市的重大参与者.
去年年底,官方的黄金净买入额开始显著上升.
据世界黄金协会(WorldGoldCouncil)的数据显示,2011年第三季度,众央行的黄金储备总计增加了148.
8公吨,是2010年政府买入总量的两倍多.
有趣的是,希腊央行也一直在慢慢增持黄金储备,如果它决定要在哪一天重新推出德拉克马的话,那就要方便一些了.

不过,接下来将是发达国家央行出马重返贵金属市场的时候了,其中包括英国、德国、法国和瑞士,美国可能也会加入.

英国已经首先发出决策者至少已经在考虑这个问题的暗示.
实际出手买入或许还要等一段时间.
而且一旦他们开始行动,他们也会悄无声息地做,否则金价恐怕会迅速暴涨.

当事情确实开始发生时,它将会给黄金的牛市行情带去全新的推动力.
GoldShinesOnGold'sspeculativeinvestorsmayhavebeenshakenbytheyellowmetal'swildridelastyear,butthephysicalmarket—particularlyinChina—remainedfaithfultobullion.
AccordingtoanannualreportbymetalsconsultancyGFMS–aunitofThomsonReuters—demandforphysicalgoldintheformofcoinsandbarsgrewin2012,whileChineseappetiteforgoldjewelryexpandedtorecordlevels.
Thiscontrastedwitha10%dropinoverallworldgoldinvestmentbytonnage,amidheavyredemptionsintheover-the-counterandgoldfuturesmarketsasinvestorscashedintheirgoldpositionsamidheavylossesinotherfinancialmarkets.
Whileinvestmentdemanddipped,2011wasa"bumperyearforphysicalinvestment,"PhilipKlapwijk,headofmetalsanalyticsatThomsonReutersGFMSsaid.
"Goldwasclearlydependentonemergingmarkets'economicstrengthasChina'sjewelrydemandgrewtoarecordlevel,whileIndia'sfellbylessthan3%,"hesaid.
Chinesejewelryfabricationsoared14.
6%tohitanewrecordhighof496metrictonsin2011,buildingonanear-20%gainto423tonsin2010.
Indianjewelryfabrication,ontheotherhand,fell3.
1%to701tons,althoughthiscomparedwitharecordhighof723tonsin2010.
Physicalgoldbarinvestmentmeanwhilesurged37%lastyeartoanewrecordof1,209tons,accordingtoGFMS.
ThiswasspurredbystrongdemandforphysicalgoldasastoreofvalueinChinaandIndiaaswellas"safehaven"interestfromwesterninvestors,thereportsaid.
Globalgoldcoinfabricationrose15.
2%to245.
5,spurredmainlybystrongdemandinTurkeyandChina,saidGFMS.
Theresilienceofgoldphysicaldemand,despiteheightenedmarketvolatilityandarecord-highgoldpriceinSeptember,isareflectionofthetypeofconsumersthatmakeupthissectorofthegoldmarket,saidMarkO'Byrne,directoratbulliondealerGoldCore.
Notonlydoesinvestmentinphysicalgoldintheformofbarsandcoinstendtobe"stickier,"orlessspeculative,thanotherareasofthegoldmarket,butAsianbuyers—-whoaccountforalargeproportionofthephysicalgoldmarket—-tendtoseekitemssuchasgoldjewelryandbarsasastoreofwealthandahedgeagainstdomesticinflation,saidMr.
O'Byrne.
Headded:"Whilejewelryisseenlessasastoreofvalueinthewestbecauseofhightaxesandastronomicalpricemark-ups,inAsia,goldjewelryismuchcheaper.
Goldalsohasanaddedreligioussignificance.
"RisingconcernoverinflationandtherapidhikeindisposableincomesinplaceslikeChinaisalsodrivingdemandforphysicalgold,saidGFMS.
AccordingtotheGFMSestimates,thevolumeofgoldbarhoardinginChinarose40%year-on-yeartoanewrecordhighat250tonslastyear.
Andthistrendislikelytocontinue.
"Withthesupplychannelofinvestmentbarscontinuingtoexpandviathecountry'sbankingnetwork,growthinthisareaissetforfurthergainsincomingyears,arerealinterestratesarelikelytoremainnegativeintheshort-tomedium-term,"GFMSsaid.
ThesamecanbesaidforChinesejewelrydemand,whichGFMSexpectstohitanewrecordthisyear.
投机性需求减弱之际实物黄金需求依然强劲黄金矿业服务公司(GFMS)周三公布的报告显示,2011年金价的剧烈波动可能导致了投机性投资需求的减弱,但实物黄金需求依然坚挺,部分原因是来自中国和其他新兴经济体的买盘强劲,这应会有助于金价在2012年保持高位.

尽管美国的经济复苏步伐加快,但失业率高企令经济前景依然脆弱,引发了美国推出更多刺激措施的可能性,再加上欧洲的不确定性犹存,这给经济合作与发展组织(OECD)多数地区以及中国带来了通货膨胀风险.
贵金属咨询机构GFMS由此看到了给金价提供足够支撑的因素.

GFMS发布的黄金报告称,全球经济前景仍充满不确定性,这将确保能够应对疲软基本面和支撑金价的足以强劲的黄金投资需求.
该机构仍预计金价在2012年年底或2013年年初将达到每盎司2,000美元左右,但表示,在不远的将来,有利于金价的宏观经济因素开始变化的可能性将增加.

报告称,2011年全球黄金投资总量较上年下降10.
4%,至1,605吨,原因是在去年下半年其他金融市场大跌之际,场外交易市场和黄金期货市场投资者大幅平仓.

GFMS称,尽管投机人士离场,但实物黄金需求、尤其是中国的黄金首饰、金币和金条需求却依然保持强劲,不惧2011年创下纪录高点的金价.

GFMS表示,这一趋势有望在2012年延续,因新兴市场对实物黄金的需求将继续增长,超出其他地区的需求.
在通胀担忧持续和收入不断增加之际,中国2012年农历新年假日前后黄金零售额的强劲表现便是最新的例证之一.

GFMS表示,经济的持续增长以及将黄金作为另类资产的强烈愿望可能会推动中国今年的黄金首饰加工量再创新高.

报告显示,中国2011年黄金首饰加工量增长14.
6%,创下496吨的纪录新高,2010年则增长近20%,至423吨.
这与全球黄金首饰加工量的总体下滑趋势形成反差:2011年全球黄金首饰加工量下降2.
2%,至1,973吨.

GFMS表示,2011年金条的全球需求量飙升37%,至1,209吨的纪录新高.
原因在于,中国和印度市场对实物黄金作为保值资产的需求旺盛,同时西方投资者也存在避险需求.

GFMS称,2011年仅中国的金条需求就增长了40%,达到250吨,2010年为179吨.
报告称,2011年全球金币加工量增长15.
2%,至245.
5吨,主要受土耳其和中国的强劲增长驱动.

金条交易商GoldCore的MarkO'Byrne表示,尽管市场波动加剧且金价在去年9月触及每盎司1,920.
94美元的纪录高点,但实物黄金需求依然坚挺,这反映出黄金市场中投资实物黄金的投资者的状况.

O'Byrne表示,相对于黄金市场其他领域,金条和金币等实物黄金投资中的投机性成分趋于下降,而且亚洲投资者也更倾向于投资黄金首饰和金条作为应对通胀的保值资产.

GFMS表示,中国银行系统投资性金条供应渠道的扩大应会进一步推升中国金条市场需求.

FinancialTime(金融时报)ChinaYuanInchesCloserToGlobalCurrencyChina'syuanisjusttwoyearsawayfrombecomingaglobaltradecurrency.
Asystemtosettlecross-borderyuantransactionsandboosttheconvertibilityofthecurrencyisbeingsetupinBeijingandwillberolledoutby2014,CentralBankofficialsnotedyesterday.
Oncesetup,itwouldallowcountriestosettlepaymentsinChinesegoodsinyuansinsteadofdollars.
Overthelongterm,theuseoftheyuan,particularlyinAsiantrade,wouldtakesomedemandawayfromthedollarwhichcurrentlyenjoysthestatusofboththeworld'sreserveandtradecurrency.
Currentlycross-borderyuanclearanceisconductedthroughtheHongKongandMacaobranchesoftheBankofChina,oragencybanksofoverseasparticipants.
Actualdemandforcross-borderyuansettlementisincreasinginAsia,buttransactioncostsinthecurrentpaymentsystemarehigherthanthedollar.
"Thenewsystemwilllinkdomesticandoverseasparticipantsdirectly,andsupportdifferentlanguagesincludingChineseandEnglish.
What'smore,theworkinghourswillbeextendedto17or18fromthecurrenteighttoninehourstocoveryuansettlementdemandfromdifferenttimezones,"saidLiYue,directorofthepaymentandsettlementdepartmentatthePeople'sBankofChinainaChinaDailyreportonThursday.
Lisaidthatthesystemwilladoptglobalstandards,andprobablyusetheinternationalmessagingservice,theSocietyforWorldwideInterbankFinancialTelecommunication,commonlyknownasSWIFT.
Internationaltradesettledinyuancurrentlyexceeds2trillionyuan($317billion)andforeigndirectinvestmentsettledinyuanreached110billionyuanlastyear,accordingtotheCentralBank.
FortheWorldBank,China'sgrowingroleinglobaltrade,thesizeofitseconomyanditsroleastheoneoftheworld'slargestlenders,meanthattheyuan'sinternationalizationis"inevitable".
AcceptanceoftheChinesecurrencyasamajorglobalreservecurrency,however,willdependonthepaceandsuccessoffinancialsectorreformsandtheopeningofChina'sexternalcapitalaccounts,theWorldBanksaid.
人民币离国际化还有两年短短两年之内,中国人民币就将成为一种全球贸易货币.
中国央行官员昨日表示,一个旨在促进跨境人民币交易结算并增强人民币可兑换性的系统正在北京建立,而且将在2014年建成并投入使用.
该系统一旦建成,将使各国能够用人民币(而不是美元)对中国商品进行支付结算.
从长远来看,使用人民币进行贸易结算——尤其是在亚洲贸易中,将减少部分美元贸易结算需求,而美元目前享有世界储备货币及贸易货币的双重地位.

目前,跨境人民币结算是通过中国银行香港和澳门分行或参与跨境人民币结算的海外代理行进行.
亚洲跨境人民币结算的实际需求目前正在不断增长,但目前人民币跨境支付系统的交易成本高于美元.

"这个新的人民币跨境支付系统将直接连接境内外参与者,支持包括中英文在内的各种不同语言,而且工作时间将从目前的8至9小时延长至17至18至小时,以满足不同时区的人民币结算需求.
"中国人民银行支付结算司司长励跃周四在《中国日报》的一篇报道中如是表示.

励跃表示,该系统将采用全球标准,很可能使用国际通讯服务——俗称SWIFT的环球银行间金融电讯协会(SocietyforWorldwideInterbankFinancialTelecommunication).
据中国央行透露,2011年跨境贸易人民币结算量超过2万亿元(合3,170亿美元),跨境直接投资人民币结算量达1,100亿元.

对于世界银行来说,中国在全球贸易中日益增强的地位、其经济规模以及作为世界上最大贷款国的地位,意味着人民币的国际化是"不可避免的".
然而,世界银行表示,人民币是否能被接受为全球主要储备货币,将取决于中国金融部门改革的步伐及成功,以及中国对外资本账户的开放.

Sino-ForestSeeksCourtProtectionChinesetimbercompanySino-ForestCorp.
saidonFridayitwillseekcreditorprotectionunderCanadianlawasitpursuesthesaleofmostofitsassets.
ThemovemarksthelateststepinadownwardspiralforthecompanythatstartedlastJune,whenU.
S.
shortsellerMuddyWatersLLCissuedareportallegingSino-Foresthadfraudulentlyexaggeratedthevalueofitsplantationassets.
Sino-ForestsaidFridayithasstartedlegalactionagainstMuddyWaters,allegingdefamation.
Sino-ForestexecutiveshavelongdefendedthecompanyagainstMuddyWaters'allegations,butshareholdersabandonedthecompany.
AsubsequentsharecollapseburnedinvestorsincludingAmericanhedgefundbillionaireJohnPaulsonandledtoseveralongoinginvestigationsbyCanadianauthorities.
InthemonthsaftertheclaimsbyMuddyWaters,Sino-Forestestablishedaboardcommitteetolookintotheallegations.
Itconcludedtherewasnoevidenceoffraud.
Butthecompanyalsosaidatthetimethatcouldnotdefinitivelyvalueitstimberholdings,furtherundermininginvestorconfidenceinthecompany.
WhilelistedinCanada,thecompany'smainoperationsareinChina.
TradinginSino-ForesthasbeenhaltedsincelastAugust,whenthestockfelltoC$5(US$5.
02)frommorethanC$20monthsearlierinToronto.
Sino-ForestsaidonFridayitlaunchedlegalactionagainstMuddyWaters,thefirm'sprincipal,CarsonBlock,andothersrelatingtotheallegationsmadeagainstSino-Forest.
Sino-ForestsaiditisalleginginitslegalmotionwiththeOntarioSuperiorCourtofJusticethatpublicstatementsmadebyMuddyWatersandMr.
Blockweredefamatory.
Theactionseeks$4billionindamages.
MuddyWaters,aU.
S.
-basedfirm,conductsresearchonChinesecompaniesandengagesinshortsellingofthesubjectsofitsreports.
'Thisisyetanotherindicationofwhatwehavesaidallalong,thatSino-Forest'smanagementhascommittedamassivefraudandhasdeceiveditsshareholdersandcreditors,'Mr.
BlocksaidinastatementissuedbyMuddyWatersonFriday.
InastatementFriday,Sino-Forestsaiditbelievesthefullvalueofitsassetscanonlyberealizedifitcancontinuetooperatewhilerepairingrelationshipswithcustomersandsuppliers,addingthatacourt-supervisedrestructuringprocesswillgiveitneededbreathingroom.
Sino-ForestandagrouprepresentingitsnoteholdershaveagreedonthematerialtermsofatransactionwhichwouldinvolveeitherasaleofthecompanytoathirdpartyorarestructuringunderwhichthenoteholderswouldacquiresubstantiallyallofSino-Forest'sassets,itsaid.
嘉汉林业就整体出售或重组寻求保护中国木材公司嘉汉林业(Sino-ForestCorp.
)上周五说,在出售其多数资产的过程中,它将根据加拿大法律寻求债权人保护.

此举标志着该公司始于去年6月份的螺旋下降过程出现了最新进展.
去年6月,美国空头机构MuddyWatersLLC发表报告声称嘉汉林业曾虚报林场资产价值.
嘉汉林业上周五说,公司已经以涉嫌诽谤对MuddyWaters提起了诉讼.
嘉汉林业的高管长期为公司辩护,否认MuddyWaters的种种指控,但股东抛弃了这家公司.
随后的股价暴跌严重打击了美国对冲基金大鳄鲍尔森(JohnPaulson)等投资者,加拿大有关部门也因而展开多起调查,这些调查目前仍在进行之中.

在MuddyWaters发布报告之后的几个月,嘉汉林业董事会成立委员会调查相关指控,最后认定没有证据表明存在欺诈.

但嘉汉林业当时也表示无法为其木材资产明确定价,因而进一步打击了投资者对公司的信心.
虽然是在加拿大上市,该公司的主要运营机构都是在中国.
嘉汉林业在多伦多的股票从去年8月份以来一直停牌,停牌之前的已从几个月前的20多加元降至5加元(约5.
02美元).

嘉汉林业上周五说,公司已经提起法律诉讼,被告包括MuddyWaters及其负责人布洛克(CarsonBlock),还包括与指控嘉汉林业相关的其他方面.
嘉汉林业说,它将向安大略省高级法院(OntarioSuperiorCourtofJustice)提起诉讼,指控MuddyWaters和布洛克发布的公开言论是诽谤.
这次诉讼要求对方赔偿40亿美元的损失.

总部设在美国的MuddyWaters公司研究中国公司,并参与做空其报告中的研究对象.
布洛克周五通过MuddyWaters发表声明说,这再次揭示了我们一直以来所说的事实,即嘉汉林业管理层曾经从事大规模欺诈活动,并曾欺骗股东和债权人.

嘉汉林业上周五发表声明说,公司相信,实现公司资产全面市值的唯一方法就是公司能够继续经营业务,同时修复及维护公司与客户和供应商的关系.
声明还说,如果在法庭监督下进行重组,公司就能获得急需的喘息空间.

嘉汉林业和一个代表其证券持有人的团体曾就一桩交易的实质性条款达成一致.
根据条款规定,要么将公司出售给第三方,要么进行重组,让证券持有人取得嘉汉林业的几乎全部资产.

ShanghaiCracksDoorOpenforHedgeFundsTheChineseyuanisstillintheearlystagesofappreciationandremainsanattractiveinvestment,althoughlesssothanpreviously,aseniorofficialatbondgiantPacificInvestmentManagementCo.
said.
RaminToloui,globalco-headofemergingmarkets,saidinaninterviewthatnondeliverableforwardswerelikelytogenerateapositivereturnoverthecomingyear.
Hetippedtheyuantoclimb1%-3%againstthedollar,whereasNDFsimplyadepreciationof0.
4%.
"OurviewisthatonafundamentalbasiswearestillintheearlystagesoftheChineserenminbiappreciationstory,"TolouitoldDowJonesNewswires.
"Butthenearer-termoutlookisonewheretherateofcurrencyappreciationislikelytobelowerthanithasbeeninthepast.
"TolouiforecastChineseeconomicgrowthintheupper-7%areainthecomingyear.
HesaidaggressiveexpansionarypolicywasunlikelyasBeijingmanagesadualsoftlanding--indemandandproduction,andinthefinancialsector--whileretainingsomeupsidefor2013,thefirstfullyearofitsnewleadership.
Whilebankreserveratioswillbethefocusofanyeasing,verbalsignalingmayplayasimportantarole,Tolouiadded.
"Themostimportantthingforinvestorsisnottobewhipsawedbyexaggeratingthelikelymoveineitherdirection,"hesaid.
TolouisaidPimcowasoverweightAsiancurrencies,inparticulartheSingaporedollar,KoreanwonandIndianrupee,basedontheiryieldsandcurrentvaluations.
Therupeemaysufferfromgreatervolatility,duetoIndia'scurrent-accountdeficit,butitsdepreciationoverthepastyearmakesitmoreattractivefromavaluationperspective,hesaid.
Oncredit,Tolouisaidselectivitywaskey,asmarketsgloballyhavepricedinalotofimprovement,andinflowsintoemerging-marketassetshavesqueezedvalueoutofsomesectors.
Euro-zonedevelopmentswillcontinuetobeanincrediblyimportantdriver,hesaid,addingthatthesinglebiggestriskwasifpoliticsonthebloc'speripherystartedtorejectcrucialausterityprograms.
Anothersignificantriskisthattighteningweakensgrowth,makingadjustmentshardtomaintain,headded.
"ThemarketmightberepricingalotofcreditriskamidcontinueddifficultiesinEurope,"hewarned.
TolouisaidPimco--theworld'slargestbondinvestor--continuestolikeSouthKoreanpolicybankbonds,giventheiryieldadvantageoverTreasurysandperceivedstrongsovereignsupport.
HehighlightedcontinuingriskstoChina'shigh-yieldpropertysector,andsaidacautiousapproachwasdefinitelywarranted.
"Inthatsector,alotofthevaluehasbeenrecognized.
Likeinmanycreditsectors,there'sbeenapricinginofabetterglobaleconomictrajectoryandabettereconomictrajectorywithinChinathanwethinkislikelytomaterialize,"Tolouisaid.
Pimco高管:人民币仍处在升值初期阶段PacificInvestmentManagementCo.
(简称Pimco)的全球新兴市场联席主管RaminToloui表示,人民币仍处在升值的初期阶段,作为投资对象仍具吸引力,尽管吸引力较之前有所下降.

Toloui在接受专访时表示,未来一年人民币无本金交割远期可能会实现正回报.
他预计,人民币兑美元将升值1%-3%,但人民币无本金交割远期则预示人民币将贬值0.
4%.

Toloui对道琼斯通讯社(DowJonesNewswires)透露,该公司的观点为,从基本面看,人民币仍处在其升值的初期阶段;但估计人民币近期的升值速度或比之前放慢.

Toloui预测,未来一年中国经济增速将在7.
5%至8%之间.
他表示,中国政府不太可能采取积极的扩张性政策,因政府正设法在需求与产能、以及金融领域实现双重软着陆,同时还要为2013年留出一些上行空间,为新领导人上台后的首年表现做准备.

他还称,尽管政策放松将主要集中在银行业存款准备金率方面,但言论信号也将扮演重要角色.

他补充称,对投资者来说,最重要的是不要轻易被夸大任何一种方向的言论所左右.

Toloui表示,基于收益率和当前估值,Pimco增持了亚洲货币,特别是新加坡元、韩圆和印度卢比.

他谈到,受印度经常项目赤字的影响,印度卢比可能出现更大波动,但由于在过去一年中经历贬值,从估值角度来看,印度卢比变得更有吸引力.

他表示,在信用产品方面,保持选择性是关键,全球市场已对信用状况的改善进行了消化,流入新兴市场资产的资金已导致部分领域投资价值降低.

Toloui指出,欧元区形势的演变将继续成为极其重要的推动因素,目前最大的一个风险是欧元区外围国家政治人士开始反对关键紧缩措施的可能性.
他同时表示,另一个重大风险是,紧缩措施将导致经济增速放缓,从而使政策调整难以为继.

他警告称,鉴于欧洲继续面临困境,市场或将对较大信用风险的出现重新作出反映.

Toloui表示,作为全球最大的债券投资机构,Pimco依然青睐韩国政策银行发行的债券,因为其收益率较美国国债具有优势,且预期这类债券将获得强有力的主权支持.

他同时强调,中国高收益的房地产行业将继续面临风险,确实应对其持谨慎态度.

他还表示,地产行业的许多价值已经被挖掘.
在许多信用领域,市场已对全球及中国经济趋势好于预想有所体现.

Eurozoneministersboostfirewallto$1tnFinanceministersinCopenhagenhaveagreedtoincreasethesizeoftheeurozone'srescuefunds.
Eurozonecountriesagreedtoboostthejointlendingpowerofthe"firewall"from500bnto800bneuros($1.
1tn;667bn).
Thefirewallisthepermanentmechanismtobailouttroubledeurozonenations.
Butinreality,whattheeurozonecountriesaredoingismakingcommitmentsavailableearlierthattheyhadalreadyagreedtogive.
AsSpainandItaly'sfinanceshavelookedmoreprecarious,investorshavebeenworriedaboutwhethertheeurozone'sfirewallcouldcopewithmorebailouts.
Thenewenlargedfund,combinedwithwhattheInternationalMonetaryFundhasagreedtolendtotheeurozone,shouldbeenoughtocopewithanewcrisis,somesuggest.
"IncludingtheIMFcommitments,thisisenoughtotakecareofItalyandSpainforthenextthreeyearsandthatwasthepointofthisexercise,"ChristophWeil,senioreconomistatCommerzbankinFrankfurt,toldtheBBC.
HeaddedthathedidnotthinkSpainandItalywouldrequirebailouts.
Otherswerelessconvinced.
"Today'sdecisionisaclassicEuropeancompromise,"saidCarstenBrzeski,economistatINGbankinBrussels.
"ItwasasfarastheGermangovernmentwaswillingtogoanditwastheminimummostothereurozonecountrieswereexpecting.
"Abiggerincrease.
.
.
couldhavesentastrongersignalandwouldhavebeenmoreconvincing,"hesaid.
IMFheadChristineLagardewelcomedthemove.
"TheIMFhaslongemphasisedthatenhancedEuropeanandglobalfirewalls,togetherwiththeimplementationofstrongpolicyframeworks,arecriticalforendingthecrisisandsecuringinternationalfinancialstability,"shesaid.
'Strategypaidoff'Theexistingfund-theEuropeanFinancialStabilityFacility(EFSF)-hasalreadybeenusedtorescuetheRepublicofIrelandandPortugal,andiscommittedtoprovidingpartofGreece'ssecondbailout.
Itwillhaveonly200bneurosinremaininglendingcapacityfromthemiddleofthisyear,whichcanonlybeusedfornewrescues"inexceptionalcircumstances".
TheEuropeanStabilityMechanism(ESM)wasoriginallyintendedtobeapermanentreplacementfortheEFSF,butnowthetwowilloverlapfromthemiddleofthisyear.
Thecombinedlendingofthetwofundswillbesetatatotalof700bneuros.
IncludingtwootherloansalreadymadetoGreece,theeurozonesaidthefirewallisnowabove800bneuros.
"Robustfirewallshavebeenestablished,"theeurozoneministerssaid.
"Thiscomprehensivestrategyhaspaidoffandledtoasignificantimprovementofmarketconditions.
"DebateoversizeEarlierthisweektheOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment-aforumoftheworld'srichdemocraticnations-recommendedincreasingthebailoutfundsto1trillioneuros,orabout11%oftheeurozone'sgrossdomesticproduct.
Itshead,AngelGurria,calledforministerstoagreewhathedescribedas"themotherofallfirewalls".
ButGermanyfavouredonlyamodestincreaseatthesummitofthefinanceministersofthe17nationsthatusetheeurointheDanishcapital.
Asrecentlyasthisweek,GermanChancellorAngelaMerkelsaidthatshewouldfavouronlyatemporaryincreaseto700bneuros.
Butanyincreasebeyondthe800bneurosthattheeurozoneagreedwouldbehardtogetthroughtheGermanparliament,Commerzbank'sMrWeilsaid.
"Therewasspeculationthatthetotalwouldbehigher,butfromtheGermanperspective,thiswasthemaximumtheycouldextract,"headded.
Speakingbeforethemeeting,theRepublicofIreland'sMichaelNoonansaid:"Ifwegetto800orbeyond800,thedenominatedamountindollars.
.
.
presentsaveryseriousfirewalltopreventattacksonEurope.
"Manyeurozonemembers,includingFrance,werethoughttobeinfavourofabigincreaseinordertoensurethatlargereurozonecountriesarenotdrawnbackintothecrisis.
ConcernshavebeenraisedoverSpain,whichhasfailedtocutitsborrowingasmuchaspromised,andwhichfacesviolentprotestsagainstlabourmarketreformsintendedtoboostitsflaggingeconomy.
"Iamconfidentofourcapacitytoreachanagreement,wewillreachaconsensus,"saidFrenchFinanceMinisterFrancoisBaroinashearrivedforthetalks.
"Therightsizeofthefunddependsonhowyouapproachtheissue.
"ThirdbailoutMeanwhile,GreekPrimeMinisterLucasPapademoshasraisedthepossibilityofathirdbailoutforhiscountryinaninterviewwithItaliandailyIlSole24Ore.
"Itcannotbeexcludedthatsomefinancialsupportmaybenecessary,butwemusttryhardtoavoidsuchanoutcome,"MrPapademossaid.
"Greecewilldoeverythingpossibletomakeathirdadjustmentprogrammeunnecessary.
"Havingsaidthat,marketsmaynotbeaccessiblebyGreeceevenifithasimplementedfullyallmeasuresagreedupon,"hesaid.
AmeetingtodecidewhowillbethenextheadoftheEurogroup-whichistheeurozonecountriesplustheheadoftheEuropeanCentralBankandtheCommission-brokeuponFridaywithoutadecision.
Jean-ClaudeJuncker,thecurrentchairman,cancelledaschedulednewsconferenceafterbecomingangrywiththeAustrianfinanceministerMariaFekterforleavingthemeetingearlyandannouncingthedecisiononthefirewallprematurely.
Itmeansadelay-untilmid-April-tofindoutwhowillreplaceMrJunckerandwhetherYvesMerschfromLuxembourgwilltakeaseatontheECBboard.
欧元区财长将防火墙设定为1万亿欧元欧洲财长们在哥本哈根会议上达成了一致,同意加大欧元区救助基金的规模.

欧元区国家统计加强"防火墙"的借款能力,将借款规模从5000亿提高到8000亿欧元.

这个防火墙是作为一个永久性机制,援助有麻烦的欧元区国家.
实际上,现在欧元区国家做的不过就是对他们曾经达成的一致再次重申而已.

西班牙和意大利现在看起来更加不稳定,投资者开始担心欧元区的防火墙能不能像他们提供稳定基金.

有些人认为,新扩大的基金,加上国际货币基金组织同意向欧元区的借款,足以让欧元区国家应对新的危机.

法兰克福的(德国)商业银行高级经济学家ChristophWeil对BBC说:"加上国际货币基金组织的借款,使西班牙和意大利完全可以过得去,这就是这个行动的意义所在.
"他还补充说,他认为意大利和西班牙不需要稳定基金.
其他人却没有他这么有信心.
"今天的决定是一个经典的欧洲妥协,"布鲁塞尔的荷兰国际集团(ING)的经济学家CarstenBrzeski说.
"这和德国政府的愿望很近似,也是大多数欧元区其他国家所希望的最小额度.
""大幅增加……释放了一个强烈的信号,也更具说服力.
"他说国际货币基金组织总裁ChristineLagarde支持这一行动.
她说:"国际货币基金组织一直重视加强欧洲和世界的防火墙,配合实施强有力的框架政策,对于结束危机,保证国际金融稳定非常关键.
""策略取得成功"现行的基金——欧洲金融稳定机构——已经用来挽救爱尔兰共和国和葡萄牙,也承诺为希腊提供部分第二批稳定基金.

今年上半年现在还剩下2000亿欧元的借款能力,这笔钱要用于应对"特殊情况"最初想用欧洲稳定机制来代替欧洲金融稳定机构,但是现在看来,从今年年中开始,这两套制度要叠加使用.

两个机制加起来的借款将设定为总额7000亿欧元.
加上提供给希腊政府的其他两笔借款,现在欧元区的防火墙据说已经超过了8000亿欧元.

欧元区财长们称:"已经建立了强有力的防火墙,这个全面策略已经发挥作用,市场环境明显改善.
"对于规模的争论这周早些时候,经济合作与发展组织——一个世界富裕、民主国家饿论坛——建议将救助基金提高到1万亿欧元,相当于欧元区国家GDP的11%.

总干事安吉尔·葛利亚要求欧元区通过他所提出的"防火墙之母"计划.

但是在丹麦首都召开的欧元区17国财长高峰会议上,德国仅仅倾向于小幅度的增加.

就在这周,德国总理默克尔说,他更乐于暂时性增长到7000亿欧元.
德国商业一行的Weil先生说,如果增加超过了8000亿欧元,那么就很难在德国议会获得通过.

他补充说:"也许考虑总额可以更高,但是在德国,这就是最大限额了.
"爱尔兰财长努南在会议前说:"如果我们能够做到8000或者多于8000亿,主要为美元……这就意味这在建立了一个防御欧洲的强劲防火墙.
"包括法国在内的许多欧元国都希望大幅增加援助基金,这样就可以保证那些欧元区的打过不会被带入到危机中去.

由于西班牙没有按照承诺的那样大幅削减借款,因此对西班牙的状态更加怀疑.
它为了刺激不稳定的经济而采取的劳动市场改革也遭到了强烈抗议.

法国财长FrancoisBaroin讲话时说:"我相信我们有能力达成一致,我们将达成共识.
""多大规模合适,这要看你怎么处理这个事件.
"是否需要第三轮援助基金希腊总理帕帕季莫斯在接受《24小时太阳报》采访时说,有可能需要第三次援助基金.

他说:"不排除需要一些金融援助,但是我们必须努力避免这种结果.
""希腊将竭尽全力不要第三次调整.
"他说:"我们已经说过,即使全面采取我们目前达成一致的措施,希腊进入市场也非易事.
"在讨论谁作为欧洲集团首脑,同时也是欧元国家、欧洲中央银行、欧洲理事会的首脑时没有达成一致意见.

欧元集团主席让克洛德·容克对于奥地利财政部长费克特(MariaFekter)过早离开会议,并宣称现在就决定防火墙问题还为时过早表示不满,并取消了一场原定的新闻发布会.
这就意味这至少要到4月中旬才能知晓谁来代替容克,以及来自卢森堡公国的YvesMersch能否成为欧洲中央银行董事会的总裁.
MoreStepsConsideredinPushtoOpenYuanBEIJING—ChinaisconsideringincreasingtheabilityofChinesecorporationstoborrowyuan-denominatedfundsoutsideitsbordersforuseonthemainland,accordingtopeoplefamiliarwiththematter,apotentialmoveaimedatbroadeningcross-bordercapitalflowsasitpushestomaketheyuanaglobalcurrency.
Afteralargenumberofcomplaintsfromconsumers,China'sbankregulatorhaswarnedlenderstheywillbeseverelypunishedforexcessivefees.
TheWSJ'sDeborahKanspeakstoBeijingreporterDinnyMcMahon.
Chineseauthoritieslatelastyearstartedallowingmainland-basednonfinancialcompaniestosellyuan-denominatedbondsinHongKong,theformerBritishcolonythathasbecomeatestinggroundforafreeryuanoverthepasttwoyears.
But,sofar,Chinesecompanieshavehadlimitedabilitytoborrowyuandirectlyfrombanksoffshoreandbringtheyuanbacktothemainland.
Now,thePeople'sBankofChinaandothergovernmentagenciesareweighingaquota-basedsystemthroughwhichapprovedmainlandbusinesseswouldbeabletotakeoutyuanloansoffshoreandremitthefunds,thepeoplesaid.
ThePBOCdidn'trespondtoarequestforcomment.
Chinatightlycontrolscapitalflowsaswellastheyuan,alsoknownastherenminbi.
InaJanuaryspeechtoChineseimportersandexporters,PBOCAssistantGov.
LiDongrongsaid,"Wewillpushaheadwithdevelopingavirtuouscycleinrenminbicross-borderflowsandfurtherexpandingthechannelsforcross-borderrenminbiflows.
"Thedeliberationfollowsaone-timeapprovalgivenbyChina'stopeconomicplanningagencylatelastyeartoChinaGuangdongNuclearPowerGroup.
Underthatapproval,issuedbytheNationalDevelopmentandReformCommission,thestate-ownednuclear-powercompanywasallowedtoborrowandremitthreebillionyuan($475million)fromBankofChinaLtd.
'sHongKongsubsidiary.
Anumberofissuesstillneedtobeworkedout.
OneiswhetherChineseauthoritieswouldallowfundstoberemittedintheformoflong-termorshort-termdebt.
Waryofshort-termspeculativecapitalinflows,Chineseauthoritiesrestrictremittancesofyuan-bondproceedstolong-termusessuchasfixedcapitalinvestment.
Somemarketparticipantshavecalledforclassifyingmoreremittanceasshort-term,givingbusinessesmoreflexibility.
Suchashiftwouldindicateanacknowledgmentbytheauthoritiesthat"offshoreyuanborrowingdoesnotembodythesamelevelofriskasotherforeign-currencyborrowing,"saidWoonKhienChia,aSingapore-basedanalystatRoyalBankofScotlandGroup.
Theauthoritiesareconsideringaquota-basedsystembecausetheyaren'tyetreadytoopenthefloodgateforfearofdrainingtheyuanliquidityintheoffshoremarket,saidthepeoplefamiliarwiththematter.
Theoffshoremarketalreadyhasbeenshrinkinginrecentmonthsduetoincreasedcross-borderyuanflowsandreducedexpectationofyuanappreciation.
YuandepositsinHongKong'sbankingsystemdropped1.
7%inFebruaryfromamonthearlierto566billionyuan,accordingtothemostrecentdataavailable,markingthethirdstraightmonthlydecline.
Chinesecompanieshavehadlimitedabilitytoborrowyuandirectlyfrombanksoffshoreandbringtheyuanbacktothemainland.
Also,authoritiesaremovinggingerlybecauseofconcernsoverthepotentialshocktodomesticmonetarypolicyfromcapitalinflows,thepeoplesaid.
Ontheotherhand,Chinaisslowlylooseningitsgriponitscurrencyandcross-bordermoneyflowsasitexploreswaystoboosttheuseoftheyuaninternationally.
AnalystssaidenhancingtheabilityofChinesecompaniestoborrowoffshorealsocouldhelpChinamovetowardamoremarket-basedinterest-ratesystemfromthecurrentgovernment-regulatedone,becauseoffshoreloansarepricedbasedonmarketdemandandsupply.
Chinacurrentlytightlycontrolslendingrates.
"Startingatacontrolledmanner,aquotasystemwouldbeviewedpositivelybythemarkets,"saidBeckyLiu,aHongKong-basedstrategistatHSBCHoldingsPLC.
"Aquotasystemwouldcarryforwardinterest-rateandcapital-accountliberalizationwhileretainingstabilityintheoffshoremarketunderthebackdropofalreadydecliningoffshorerenminbidepositbase.
"Sincelatelastyear,Chinahastakenanumberofstepstowardmakingiteasierfortheyuantoflowintoandoutofthemainland,thoughitremainsalongwayfromsettingtheyuanfree.
IthasrolledouttrialprogramstoallowforeigninvestorstobuydomesticstocksandbondswithyuanraisedoverseasandtoenableChinesebusinessestouseyuanforoverseasinvestment.
Mostrecently,Shanghaiofficialssaidtheyareplanningtolaunchaprogramtoallowforeignfundmanagerstoraiseyuanfundsonthemainlandforoverseasinvestment.
Inaddition,yuan-denominatedcross-bordertradetransactions,whichstartedwithalimitedpilotprogramin2009andhavesincebeenexpandednationwide,nowaccountforabout10%ofChina'stotaltrade.
中国考虑建立中资企业离岸人民币贷款机制据知情人士透露,为推动人民币国际化进程,中国正考虑增强中资企业为满足在中国大陆的资金需要而在境外举借人民币资金的能力,以便扩大跨境资本流动.

中国政府去年末开始允许大陆非金融企业在香港发行人民币计价债券.
在过去两年间,香港已经成为人民币国际化的试验场.
但到目前为止,中资企业直接从境外银行借入人民币并使人民币回流大陆的能力都是有限的.

知情人士称,目前,中国央行等政府机构正考虑建立一项配额机制,通过该机制,得到批准的大陆企业将能够从海外借入人民币贷款并将资金汇回大陆.
中国央行未回复记者的置评请求.

中国对资金流动以及人民币实行严格管控.
中国央行行长助理李东荣在1月份对中资进出口企业发表演讲时称,央行将推动实现人民币跨境流动的良性循环,进一步拓宽人民币跨境流动渠道.

在此之前,中国国家发展和改革委员会(简称:发改委)曾在去年末一次性批准中国广东核电集团(ChinaGuangdongNuclearPowerGroup)借用中国银行(香港)有限公司(BankofChina(HongKong)Limited,简称:中银香港)人民币30亿元(约合4.
76亿美元)的商业贷款.
还有诸多问题需要解决.
其中之一就是,中国监管部门究竟应该允许海外所筹人民币资金以长期外债还是短期外债的形式汇回中国大陆.
由于对短期投机性资本流入心存戒备,中国监管部门一直限制将人民币以长期外债的方式打回.
一些市场人士呼吁将更多汇回的人民币资金划归为短期债务,从而给企业更大的灵活性.

苏格兰皇家银行(RoyalBankOfScotland)驻新加坡的分析师WoonKhienChia认为,如果进行这样的调整,就意味着中国监管部门承认离岸人民币借款并不蕴含与其他外币债务同等水平的风险.

知情人士称,监管层正考虑建立配额机制,因为他们还没有为放闸做好准备,主要是担心此举会耗尽离岸市场的人民币流动性.

最近几个月来,由于跨境人民币流动增多以及人民币升值预期减弱,离岸人民币市场一直在萎缩.
最新的数据显示,香港银行系统2月份的人民币存款规模较前月下降1.
7%,至人民币5,660亿元,为连续第三个月减少.

知情人士称,监管层之所以谨慎行事,还因为他们对资本流入可能给国内货币政策带来的冲击感到担忧.

另一方面,中国正在慢慢放松对人民币汇率和跨境资金流动的管制,以便趁美元和欧元黯然失色之际,探索扩大人民币使用的途径.

分析师们称,增强中国企业的海外借款能力有助于中国向利率市场化迈进,因为离岸贷款的定价取决于市场供求.
中国目前对存贷款利率实施管制.

汇丰控股(HSBCHoldingsPLC)驻香港的策略师BeckyLiu表示,在起步阶段采用有管理的配额制度应该会得到市场的积极评价,配额制度一方面能够推动利率市场化和资本帐户开放,同时在离岸人民币存款基础已经开始下滑的情况下,也有助于保持离岸市场的稳定.

中国从去年晚些时候开始采取了一系列新举措来减少人民币进出中国大陆的障碍,但人民币距离完全自由兑换还有很长一段路要走.

中国已经推出了试点项目,允许海外投资者用境外筹集的人民币资金购买国内的股票和债券,并允许中资企业使用人民币进行境外投资.
最近,上海市的官员表示,他们打算推出一个项目,允许海外基金公司在中国大陆筹集人民币资金用于境外投资.
另外,以人民币进行结算的跨境贸易已经占到中国贸易总量的10%左右.

FushiShakesOffMuddyWatersReportTimewasevenrumorthatshort-sellerMuddyWatersResearchInc.
waspreparingareportonafirmwasenoughtosendastockintoanosedive.
Lookslikenowthemarkethastoseethegoodsbeforemakingupitsmind.
OnTuesdayaroundnoonintheU.
S.
,MuddyWaterspostedareportonhowfraudsatChinesefirmscometogether,mentioningNasdaq-tradedFushiCopperweldInc.
AlthoughFushiCopperweldhadarockydayoftrading,itclosedTuesdayat$6.
10,upfrom$5.
79Monday.
Itclosedatanevenbetter$6.
22Wednesday.
(Thepostingfolloweda11%dropinFushiCopperweld'ssharesonMonday.
AMuddyWatersspokesmansaidhewasunawareofthechangesinshareprice.
)That'sabigchangefromJune,whenrumorsswirledthatHongKong-listedChinaYurunFoodGroupLtd.
wassubjecttoanimminentreportfromMuddyWaters,sendingthestockdownabout20%.
Noreportappeared.
InastatementpostedonitsWebsiteWednesday,FushiCopperweldsaidithasreviewedthe[MuddyWaters]reportandcategoricallydeniesallofitsclaims,whicharevagueandnon-specific,andweremadeintheabsenceofanydiscussionwiththeCompany.
InanemailtoTheWallStreetJournal,Mr.
BlocksaidthatwhileMuddyWatershasdoneresearchonFushiCopperweld,Tuesday'sreportwasnotaboutthecompany.
Werunanumberofpositionsinternallythatweneverpublishon,and[FushiCopperweld]wasonesuchposition,hesaid.
MuddyWatersdidn'tpublishdetailedresearchintoFushiCopperweldinthesamewayasitdidforothercompanies,includingSino-ForestCorp.
,DuoyuanGlobalWaterInc.
,andChinaMediaExpressInc.
HesaidthattheaimofthereportwastobringattentiontoareportinthelocalChinesemediaabouthowthoroughlyplannedfraudsonU.
S.
investorscanbe.
浑水研究报告未损傅氏科普威股价曾几何时,哪怕是做空机构浑水研究公司(MuddyWatersResearchInc.
)正在针对某家公司撰写报告的传言,都足以引起一只股票的暴跌.
现在,市场似乎要看到实际的东西才会决定要不要抛.

美国当地时间周二中午前后,浑水公司发布一篇报告,内容是中国企业怎样从事欺诈行为,其中提到了傅氏科普威公司(FushiCopperweldInc.
).
虽然周二盘中傅氏股价起伏较大,但收盘价6.
10美元高于周一的5.
79美元.
周三该股收于6.
22美元,更上一层楼.

(浑水发布报告前,傅氏股价周一下跌11%.
浑水公司一位发言人表示对该股价格变动不知情.
)这跟去年6月的情形相比大为不同.
当时的传闻说,在香港上市的中国雨润食品集团有限公司(ChinaYurunFoodGroupLtd.
)是浑水公司即将发布的一篇报告的研究对象.
这导致雨润股价下跌了20%左右.
后来没有这样的报告出现.

傅氏科普威周三在其网站上发表声明说,它已看过浑水公司的报告,并完全否认浑水的指控;这些指控模糊、不具体,是在未与公司进行任何讨论的情况下进行的.

浑水创始人布洛克(CarsonBlock)在发给《华尔街日报》的电子邮件里说,虽然浑水公司曾经做过对傅氏科普威的研究,但周二报告不是针对该公司的.

他说,我们从来不对我们内部运营的一些头寸发布报告,傅氏科普威就是这类头寸之一.
浑水没有像针对嘉汉林业(Sino-ForestCorp.
)、多元环球水务(DuoyuanGlobalWaterInc.
)和中国高速传媒(ChinaMediaExpressInc.
)那样公布针对傅氏科普威的详细研究报告.
布洛克说,周二报告的目的是让人注意中国媒体的一篇报道,报道内容是关于针对美国投资者的骗局可以达到多么彻底的程度.

BuffettFeastsOnGoldmanScrapsIfthereisoneskillGoldmanSachsGroupInc.
(GS)traderspridethemselveson,itistheartofbuyinglowandsellinghigh.
Butlastyear,anticipatingnewregulatoryrestrictionsonproprietarytradingandseekingtoreducethebank'sexposuretoriskyassets,Goldmanloantradersunloadedhundredsofmillionsofdollarsofleveragedloansataloss,peoplefamiliarwiththemattersay.
Makingmattersworse,manyofthoseloanshavesincejumpedinvalue.
Detailsofonetradeinparticularhaverecentlycausedastirinthemarket.
InNovember,Goldmansoldabout$85millionofloansintroublednewspaperpublisherLeeEnterprisesInc.
Goldmansoldthedebtatabout65centsonthedollar,havingboughtitmonthsbeforeataround80cents,resultinginalossofatleast$13million.
Thebuyer:aunitofWarrenBuffett'sBerkshireHathawayInc.
(BRKA,BRKB),accordingtoseveralpeoplefamiliarwiththematter.
Buffetthassincemadeatidypaperprofitontheloans,whicharenowworthabout82centsonthedollar,thepeoplesaid.
AGoldmanspokesmandeclinedtocommentontheloansales.
Buffettdidn'treturnrequestsforcomment.
ThesaleofloanscameamiddiscussionsofnewregulationsthatGoldmanofficialsworriedmightrestrictitsabilitytoownandtradeloans,andconcernswithinthefirmthatfinancialmarketscouldtakeaturnfortheworseafterapromisingstarttotheyear.
Goldman,aswell,wasconductingabroadconsolidationofitscredit-tradingdesksasitfocusedmoreonfacilitatingtradesbetweencustomers.
Goldmandecidedinthespringof2011tovastlyreducetheamountofloansheldbyitsbiggestloan-tradingdesk,calledtheglobalbank-loantradinganddistressed-debtinvestingunit,whichhadaportfolioofmorethan$4billion.
Thedesksoldheavilythroughthesummer,justasU.
S.
andEuropeanmarketswerecollapsing.
InOctober,thatdeskwasmergedwithanotherdesk,whosetraderscontinuedtosell,creatingadditionallosses.
AttheendofOctober,Goldmancombinedtheloan-tradingdeskwithatradingdeskthatspecializedinbonds.
Thedifferencebetweenthetwowaslarge.
Theloandeskwasaprivatedeskwithaccesstoconfidentialinformationabouttheborrowersoftheloansitheld,acrucialadvantageinproprietarytrading.
Thebonddeskonlyhadaccesstopublicinformation.
Tradersontheenlargedpublicdeskjettisonedmanyoftheloanstheyinheritedbecausetheydidn'twanttorisklossesonpositionstheyweren'tfamiliarwith,thepeoplesaid.
ThatincludedtheLeeEnterprisesloans,theysaid.
InNovember,GoldmanreceivedacallfromaloantraderatCitigroupInc.
,whosaidanunidentifiedclientwasinterestedinbuyingLeeEnterprisesloans,thepeoplesaid.
GoldmanhadbeenworkingwithotherLeecreditors,includingMonarchAlternativeCapitalLPandMudrickCapitalManagementLP,onabankruptcyplanforthestrugglingpublisherthatwasonthevergeofcomingtogether.
Nevertheless,GoldmantradersagreedtoselltheLeeloan.
Atthetime,thebankdidn'tknowthebuyerwasBuffett,whoalsohadmademorethan$1.
5billiononaninvestmenthemadeinGoldmanduringthefinancialcrisis.
WhilethetradewasagreedinNovember,itwasn'tuntilMarchthatBuffett'sidentityleakedout.
ThroughBHFinanceLLC,BuffetthasbeenbuyingmoreLeeloans,snappingup$5millionworthlastweek,saidapersonfamiliarwiththesituation.
Thistimehepaid81.
5centsonthedollar,25%morethanhepaidGoldman.
高盛亏本甩卖贷款资产巴菲特接盘如果说高盛集团(GoldmanSachsGroupInc.
)的交易员有一条技能可引以为傲,那就是低买高抛的艺术.
但据知情人士说,由于预见到政府将新出台限制自营交易的监管措施,并且为了降低高盛的高风险资产敞口,高盛的贷款交易员去年亏本抛掉了数亿美元的杠杆贷款.
更糟糕的是,很多被抛贷款后来都大幅升值.

其中一笔交易的细节最近在市场上引起了轰动.
去年11月,高盛出售了困难重重的报纸出版机构LeeEnterprisesInc.
欠它的8,500万美元贷款,售价为账面价值的65%.
而几个月前它是以相当于账面价值80%的铅钱买入这笔贷款的,所以至少亏了1,300万美元.

多位知情人士说,买主是巴菲特(WarrenBuffett)旗下公司伯克希尔哈撒韦(BerkshireHathawayInc.
)的一家子公司.
这些人士说,后来这批贷款在巴菲特手中实现了不少的账面利润.
目前这笔贷款的价值相当于账面价值的82%.

高盛一位发言人拒绝评论这批贷款.
巴菲特没有回复置评请求.
高盛卖出这批贷款时,政府正考虑出台一些新的监管措施,高盛管理层担心这些措施可能会限制它持有、买卖贷款的能力.
当时高盛内部也担心金融市场继今年实现开门红之后,可能会朝着坏的方面发展.
另外,为更加侧重于辅助客户之间的交易,高盛当时还在全面整合信贷交易部门.

高盛在2011年春季决定大幅减少其最大贷款交易部门所持贷款的数额.
这个部门名叫全球银行贷款交易与不良债务投资部,它当时拥有40多亿美元的投资组合.
这个部门整个夏季都在大规模抛售,而当时欧美市场刚好是在暴跌.
去年10月份,该部门与另外一个部门合并,它的交易员在继续抛售,造成更多损失.

10月底,高盛把这个贷款交易部门同一个专做债券的交易部门合并在一起.
两者之间差异甚大.
贷款交易部门是一个私人交易部门,可接触到所持贷款借款人的机密信息,这是自营交易的关键优势.
而债券交易部门只能接触到公开信息.

知情人士说,扩大后的公开交易部门的交易员们抛掉了接管下来的很多贷款,因为他们对这些贷款不熟悉,不想冒亏损风险.
知情人士说,这其中就包括LeeEnterprises所欠的那批贷款.
知情人士说,去年11月,高盛接到花旗集团(CitigroupInc.
)一位贷款交易员打来的电话,说一位身份未明的客户有意购买LeeEnterprises的贷款.
高盛当时已经在跟LeeEnterprises的其他债主一道为这家在困境中挣扎的出版商制定一套破产方案.
这些债主包括MonarchAlternativeCapitalLP和MudrickCapitalManagementLP.
但高盛还是同意卖掉LeeEnterprises的贷款.
当时高盛不知道买主是巴菲特.
巴菲特还曾在金融危机期间投资高盛公司,斥资逾15亿美元.
虽然这笔买卖是在2011年11月达成的,但直到今年3月份,巴菲特的身份才被泄露出来.

巴菲特后来又通过BHFinanceLLC购买了LeeEnterprises公司的更多贷款,一位知情人士说,这包括上星期购入的一笔500万美元贷款.
这次他付的价格是账面价值的81.
5%,比付给高盛的价格高出25%.

InvestorsSmellMudinTheWaterFushiTumblesDoesMuddyWatersResearchLLCstillhaveitsoldmagicOnMonday,Nasdaq-listedFushiCopperweldInc.
dropped11%,thenbouncedbackonTuesday.
ThemovescameaftershortsellerMuddyWaterspostedavideoreportonitswebsitedatedTuesdaythatincludedcriticismofthecompany.
MuddyWaters--mostfamousforitsrecommendationtosellSino-ForestCorp.
short--wasinstrumentalinturninginvestorsentimentagainstsmallChinesestocksthathadlistedintheU.
S.
viareversetakeover,amethodofgoingpublicthatdoesn'trequirethesamelevelofdisclosureasaninitialpublicoffering.
However,itmostrecenttargetuntilnow,FocusMediaHoldingLtd.
,managedtoshakeoffmuchoftheimpactofthecriticism,reboundingafteraninitialdip.
Itisnowtrading7%downfromwhenMuddyWatersissueditsfirstreportinNovember.
MuddyWatersonTuesdaysaidFushiCopperweldpresents'ahighriskoffraud.
'Inavideopresentationthatdoesn'tfocusjustonFushiCopperweld,MuddyWatersfounderanddirectorofresearchCarsonBlock,describedwhathesaidishowfraudatChinesecompaniesworks--partoneinaseriesMuddyWatersiscalling'Frauducation.
'Hecitedalocalmediareportasthebasisformuchofhispresentation.
AccordingtoMr.
Block'svoiceoveronthevideo,MuddyWaters'previouslylookedatFushiCopperweldInc.
internallybecauseit'ssubjecttoatroubledgo-privatebidbyitschairman.
'ThevideoshowedimagesofwhatMr.
Blocksaidwerecompanyfacilitiesthatappearedquiet,aswellaswhathesaidwasdiscrepanciesinthecompany'snumbersandotherissues.
Mr.
Block'sallegationscouldn'tbeindependentlyconfirmed.
Asashortseller,MuddyWatersaimstomakemoneywhensharesofacompanydecline.
MuddyWatersdidn'tsaywhetherithadashortpositiononFushiCopperweld.
AmediarepresentativeatFushiCopperweldreferredquestionstoinvestorrelationspersonnel,whohadn'trespondedasofWednesdayafternoon.
Mr.
Blockdidn'trespondtoarequestforcomment.
MuddyWatersdidn'tpublishdetailedresearchintoFushiCopperweldinthesamewasasitdidforothers,includingSino-Forest,DuoyuanGlobalWaterInc.
,andChinaMediaExpressInc.
GivenFushiCopperweld'schairmanhasdeclaredhisintenttotakethecompanyprivateat$9.
50ashare,therecouldbealimitonhowfarMuddyWaterscandrivethestockdown.
ThechairmanfirstfloatedhisprivatizationplanbackinNovember2010anditstillhasn'thappened.
ButinvestorsmightbereluctanttobetagainstithappeningafterHarbinElectricfinallymanagedtogoprivateafteralong,drawn-outbattlewithanothershortseller,CitronResearch,whichsaiditwouldneverhappen.
InsomewaysTuesday'sreportresemblesMuddyWater'sopenlettertotheSpreadtrumCommunicationsInc.
chairmaninJune.
Acollectionofmusingsbasedonobservationsfrompublicfilingsratherthananextensive,tire-kickinginvestigation,theletterstillmanagedtosendthestockdownmorethan30%.
It'snowtradingabout25%higherthanbeforeMuddyWaterspublisheditsreport.
做空机构"浑水"威力不再浑水研究公司(MuddyWatersResearchLLC)还有它原来的魔力吗纳斯达克上市公司傅氏科普威(FushiCopperweldInc.
)周一下跌11%,周二实现反弹.
在这些波动之前,做空机构浑水公司在其网站上发布标注日期为本周二的视频报告,其中包含了对傅氏的抨击.

浑水最闻名之举是推荐做空嘉汉林业(Sino-ForestCorp.
).
在投资者对小型中国概念股改变看法的过程中,它的作用不可忽视.
这些中国概念股是通过反向收购的办法在美国上市的,按这种方法上市,公司不必像通过首次公开募股(IPO)上市那样详尽地披露信息.

但在傅氏之前,浑水最近的攻击目标分众传媒(FocusMediaHoldingLtd.
)却在最初下跌之后反弹,很大程度上摆脱了抨击带来的影响.
相比浑水去年11月发表第一篇报告之时,目前分众传媒股价下跌7%.

浑水周二说,傅氏科普威存在很高的"欺诈风险".
在一段不只关注傅氏的视频报告中,浑水创始人兼研究总监布洛克(CarsonBlock)描绘中国公司是怎样从事欺诈行为的.
这是浑水公司所谓"诈骗教育"(Frauducation)系列的第一部分.
报告中有很大一部分内容依据的是一篇中国媒体的报道.

根据布洛克在视频中的旁白,浑水公司先前从内部考察傅氏,是因为它的董事长想将其私有化遇到了麻烦.
据布洛克说,视频中的一些画面是该公司显得静悄悄的厂房,还有一些影像是公司统计数字的矛盾之处,以及其他一些问题.

布洛克的说法无法独立印证.
作为一家做空机构,浑水公司的宗旨是在某家公司股价下跌时赚钱.
浑水公司未透露是否做空了傅氏科普威.

傅氏科普威一位公关代表把问题转给了投资者关系部的人员.
截至周三下午,后者没有回应.
布洛克没有回复置评请求.

浑水公司没有像针对其他公司一样公布它对傅氏科普威的详细研究.
这里说的其他公司包括嘉汉林业、多元环球水务(DuoyuanGlobalWaterInc.
)和中国高速频道(ChinaMediaExpressInc.
).
考虑到傅氏科普威董事长曾宣布他打算以每股9.
50美元的价格将公司私有化,浑水公司要将其股价拉下来,其幅度可能会是有限的.
傅氏董事长在2010年11月就提出了私有化计划,但到现在还没实施.

但投资者可能不愿打赌傅氏公司不会实施私有化方案.
因为另一家做空机构香椽研究(CitronResearch)曾表示哈尔滨泰富电气有限公司(HarbinElectric)永远不会私有化,但在与该机构展开旷日持久的争斗之后,哈尔滨泰富电气的私有化最终还是实现了.

在某些方面,周二的报告就像是浑水公司去年6月份写给展讯通信有限公司(SpreadtrumCommunicationsInc.
)董事长的公开信.
那封信是根据公开备案文件而非详尽实地调查得出一系列结论的,但它仍然造成该公司股价下跌30%有余.
目前该公司股价较浑水公司发布报告之前高出25%.

Stock(股票)CanTheStockMarketSoarWithIcarusWingsThemarketwe'reimmersedinisfirmlybasedonreality.
Lastweekcappedsixmonthsofstrengthening,broadbasedeconomicactivity.
Younameit:industrialproduction,retailsales,risingemploymentandarejuvenatedDetroit.
I'mrevisingupwardmynumbersonnewcarsalesfrom14millionto15million.
Basedonnowlowhistoricscrappagerates,Iseetheindustrytakingoutoldhighsofover17millionunitsby2013.
TheS&P500Indexbrokethrough1,400duringNovemberof2006,whichwedwellashadeundernow.
Annualtradingvolumewasenormousthen,pushingcloseto400billionsharesontheBigBoard.
Todayourrunrateisunder200billionshares.
Thepublicisgone.
Corporatepensionfundsremainunderinvestedinequities.
Bothclassesofinvestorspresentlyholdtoomuchcapitalinbonds,andcashreservesarewoefullyhigh.
Thismakesnosensetome.
BenBernankeevenadmittedpubliclythattheFRBwithitseasymoneypolicyhasdisenfranchisedsavers,thecountry'sbroad-basedmiddleclass.
NominalmoneymarketratesandaTreasuriesyieldcurvethatflauntsnosexappealwhatsoeverdidthetrick.
When'sthelasttimefriendspipedupabouttheirscoresontheBigBoardMaybe,I'mtoooldandoldstersmumbleaboutachesandpains,aswellasmunicipalbondladders.
GonearethedaysoftheInternetbubblewhenwebsitepurveyorssoldat25timesrevenuesandcellularpropertiessoldon"pops,"theirgeographicreachcoveringprospectivesubscribers.
Retireesshouldbeeducatingthemselvesonhighyieldbondsandbigcapitalizationstockswithdividendyieldscompetitivewith10-yearTreasuriesat2.
3percent.
ApplejustjoinedthislistthatembracesIBM,Microsoft,Cisco,Pfizer,Merckandmanymore.
Themarket'speakat1,576wasrecordednearyearend,2007.
Ittookanother6monthsfortherottencoreofbankloanstosurface.
ThisglobalinsanityofmortgagebackedsecuritiespackagingwastoschmeisstheaveragesinhalfandMBSlitigationcouldlastanother5years.
Seldomremarkedisthatthe2006–2007stockmarketwasgrosslyovervaluedbeforetheMBSblowup.
Price-earningsratiosdweltinthemid-teens.
Morecritical,wasthatoperatingprofitmarginsforcorporateAmericahadreachedunprecedentedlyhighground.
Notthemetricswehavetoday.
Operatingprofitmarginsarehighbutnowhereneartheir2006peak.
Corporatebalancesheetsrestimpeccablysound.
Actually,there'snotenoughfinancialengineeringtakingplace.
Weneedtoseemoredealactivity,sharebuybacksanddividendbump-ups.
It'scomingalongwithincreasingcapitalspending,stillmysteriouslydepressed.
SeemslikecorporateAmericaiswait'n'seeonwhichwaypoliticalwindsblow.
MytakeisObamawins,butisnolongeracaptiveoftheparty'sleftleaningeconomists.
Lemmegobackto"theoldpeople.
"Beforeretirement,estatemanagersspeakisstepoffyourmotorcycleevenifit'saBMW.
Bangoutragamuffinstocksthatyouheldtoolongforallthewrongreasons,andthengetseriousaboutmunipaper,Treasuries,eveninvestmentgradecorporates.
Attheriskofavigilantecommitteeofcharteredfinancialanalystsridingouttogetme,I'llshoutoutthatfixedincomeconservatismtodayisafool'sgame,exceptforhighyieldpaperandemergingmarketdebt(asnakepit.
)Investmentgradebondyields,below3percentformaturitiesunder10years,arepotentiallyconfiscatory.
Historically,thereisnoprecedentoverpostwardecadesforcomparablylowyields.
Stayaway.
Thoseofusintheirsunsetyearsneedtoactcounterintuitivelyandbuygrowthstockswithyieldsof2percentorbetter.
Flexyourmuscles.
Analytically,youwanttoownbroadbasedpropertiessellingatlowmultiplesoffreecashflow.
Suchcompanieshavethecapacitytoincreasedividends,buyback10to20percentoftheiroutstandingstockandmakecashdeals.
Stayawayfromnon-growersyielding5%likeAT&TandVerizon.
Widows,listenup!
Thereisaschoolofinvestmenttheorythatbelievesthepublic,specificallybabyboomersnowenteringretirement,turnintonetsellersofstocksfordecadestocome.
Theseacademicsblithelyprojectmassiveforcedsellingdrivesdownvaluationto9timesearnings.
Thisislooneytunes.
Ifyoubelieveit,you'vewastedtimereadingmypiecethisweek.
Keepyourcapitalinamoneymarketfundyieldingnexttozero.
Eventually,youwillberight.
WhenIlookatLIBORyieldsgoingback20years,I'ddrawatrendlinethrough4.
5percent,maybea2016event.
Meanwhile,thestockmarket'srisefromitsspring'09bottomtracesnorthof100percent.
IexpectedAppletoappreciate1.
5percentmonthlybasedonrisingearningsanditslowvaluation.
Instead,Applefluctuates3percentdailyandelevated50percentsinceyearend.
Themarket'srisefrom1,100to1,400thesepast6monthsfollowedratherthanleadthefundamentalturninbusinessconditionsforthecountry.
BecauseoftheenormousamountofrebalancingwithintheS&P500Indexlastyear,25percentoftotalstocks,remainingpropertiesactuallyareequivalenttotheirmarketvalueatthe2007peak.
Manyfinancialsaremuchlower,butsowhatMaybe,they'renextyear'sstory.
Allthesevariancesarereflectedinthecomparativeperformanceoftheindices.
Yeartodate,theS&P500IndexiscompetitivewiththeRussell2000Indexofsmallandmid-capstocks,doingalmostaswellastheemergingmarketsindex,FTSE.
Growthstockshandilyoutperformvaluepropertiesbysome400basispoints.
Suchwidevariancebetweengrowthandvaluepropertiesisprobablythepivotalinvestmentdynamicfor2012.
ManygrowthstocksstillaretoocheapcomparedwithiconicindustrialslikeCaterpillarandUnitedTechnologies.
Apple,afterallitspyrotechnics,sellsat12timesforward12months'earningpower.
Caterpillargoesfor15timesearnings.
Theenergysector,a12percentweightingintheS&P500Index,Isee5to10percentlowerbyyearend.
Toomuchsupplycomingonstreamnextcoupleofyears.
SofarI'mrightonthiscall,abullishindicatorforconsumerspending.
Deepbasic,there'llbewidedisparitiesamongsectorcomponentsoftheS&P500Index.
Don'tfocusonwhetherthemarketforgesintonewhighground.
Icarusissafefornow.
Operatingmarginleverageandtoplinegrowtharepivotalmetricsforstocks.
Bernanke'spronouncementofnonewstimuluscomingwasoverdueandshouldbeconstruedasanendorsementofneartrendlinegrowthforGDPwithnoinflationarybiases.
ThestraightarithmeticValueLineIndexeasilysurpassedits2007highasearlyas2010andrests20percenthighertoday.
NASDAQisnowherenearoverbought.
BetterqualitybankslikeJPMorganChasehaveralliedbacknearold2008highs,butwayshortofovervaluation.
I'mhangingon,overweightedinfinancials,a10percentsectorcomponentoftheS&P500Index,buttherideisarollercoaster.
TheworstcaseIcanmusterfortheS&P500Indexisalongconsolidationbasedonsomeweaknessintheenergyandfinancialssectors,nearly25percentoftheindex.
InterestratescouldworkmodestlyhighersoyoustandtolosemoneyonTreasuriesandinvestmentgradecorporates.
TheonlywayIcarusfallstoearthiscutbacksinfederalspendingandtheexpirationoftheBushtaxcutsbecomerealityearlynextyear.
Fiscalcontractionof1.
5percentislikely,butnotthe4percentplusthatexistsonpaper.
Techniciansseethemarketnowasoverbought,butthebreadthvolumeontheBigBoardforgesintonewhighground.
Takeyourpick.
MartinT.
SosnoffischairmanandfounderofAtalantaSosnoffCapital,LLC,aprivateinvestmentmanagementcompanywith$8billioninassetsundermanagement.
SosnoffhaspublishedtwobooksabouthisexperiencesonWallStreet,HumbleonWallStreetandSilentInvestor,SilentLoser.
HewasacolumnistformanyyearsatForbesMagazineandforthreeyearsatTheNewYorkPost.
Sosnoffownspersonallyand/orAtalantaSosnoffCapitalownsforclientsthefollowinginvestmentscitedinthiscommentary:IBM,Microsoft,Cisco,Pfizer,Apple,Caterpillar,UnitedTechnologyandJPMorganChase.
美股现见顶之迹我们沉迷其中的股市正稳固立足于现实基础之上.
股市历时达六个月的上涨行情在上周已出现见顶态势,而更广范围的经济活动也同样如此.
所有数据都是如此:工业生产、零售销售、就业增长以及恢复活力的美国汽车产业.

我目前把美国2012年新车销量预期从1,400万辆上调至1,500万辆.
根据目前旧车报废率处于历史低位,我预计到2013年,美国汽车行业将突破以前曾创下的1,700多万辆的最高新车年销量.

标普500指数在2006年11月期间曾突破1,400,而我们现在离这个关口也就一步之遥.
那时美国股市的全年交易量非常巨大,纽约证券交易所全年交易量接近4,000亿股.
如今,按照我们目前情况预测的2012年全年交易量不足2,000亿股.
普通投资者已弃股市而去,而各家企业的养老基金目前仍然没有充分投资于股票.
目前,这两类投资者把太多资金投放在债券上,而且现金储备高得离谱.

在我看来,这根本就不明智.
伯南克甚至公开承认,美联储借助宽松的货币政策,剥夺了美国广大中产阶层——储蓄者的权利.
货币市场名义利率以及毫无吸引力的美国国债收益率曲线就是压榨储蓄者的手段.

可曾记得上一次朋友们竞相炫耀各自在股市上斩获颇丰是什么时候或许,我年事已高,而老人往往会对全身各种疼痛唠叨个没完,对市政债券的阶梯型组合(指投资于一系列利率不同、到期时间也不同的债券,而债券到期之后再投资于新债券)也是如此.

互联网泡沫时代已一去不复返了,那时互联网公司的股价高达每股营收的25倍,而无线通信公司的股价则按照"潜在用户数"(也即涵盖潜在用户的地理范围)而定.

退休者应通过自学了解有关高收益债券以及那些股息收益率与美国10年期国债2.
3%的收益率相比具有竞争力的大市值股票.
苹果刚刚加入这些大市值股票行列之中,这其中还包括IBM、微软、思科、辉瑞(Pfizer)、默克(Merck)及许多其他大市值股票.

标普500指数在2007年接近年底时曾创下历史最高位——1,576.
6个月之后,银行贷款的核心业务极其糟糕的状况才浮出水面.
全球对抵押贷款支持证券(MBS)打包出售的这轮"疯潮"致使几大股指纷纷遭到腰斩,而有关MBS的诉讼可能还要持续5年之久.

然而,人们很少提到的是,在2006至2007年期间,也就是在MBS危机引爆之前,美国股市的估值水平早已严重过高了.
那时股票市盈普遍高达15倍左右.
更重要的是,当时美国企业的营运利润率已处于前所未有的高位,而不是我们如今所拥有的指标.
目前美国企业的营运利润率尽管较高,但远不及他们在2006年时的巅峰水平.

企业资产负债表仍然健全得令人无可挑剔.
事实上,企业并没有进行足够多的金融工程.
我们需要看到美国企业进行更多的交易活动、股票回购及股息提高.
同时应伴随发生的是企业部门的资本支出不断增加,而目前企业的资本支出仍不可思议地处于低迷状态.
企业似乎正在观望美国的政治风向.
我的看法是,奥巴马今年将在竞选中获胜连任总统,但他不会再迷恋于民主党左派经济学家.

让我回过头来谈谈"老人"问题.
在退休前,财产经理人的言论会让你禁不住从摩托车上跨下来,即使那是辆宝马摩托车.
抛售因各种错误理由而持有太久的那些表现糟糕的股票,然后认真考虑投资于市政债券、国债甚至投资级公司债券.

冒着由特许金融分析师组成的"金融市场治安委员会"全力出动来抓我的风险,我愿意大声疾呼,除了高收益债券及新兴市场债券(这可谓是一个恐怖而混乱的领域)之外,如今的固定收益投资保守主义就是一场"愚者的游戏".
投资级债券10年期以下的债券收益率低于3%,而且有可能被"充公".
从历史上看,如此低的收益率在美国战后几十年里从未曾有过.
请远离这些低收益债券.

我们这些处于晚年的老人需要逆直觉而行事,购买股息率达2%或以上的成长型股票.
从分析角度来说,积聚你的财力.
你应持有范围广泛的股票,其股价与每股自由现金流的比值应较低.
这些公司有能力提高股息,回购10%至20%的流通股票,并用现金进行并购交易.
远离诸如AT&T及威瑞森(Verizon)等那些股息率达5%但并非成长型的股票.
寡妇们,听好了!

有一学派的投资理论认为,普通投资者——尤其是现在步入退休年龄的婴儿潮一代,将在未来数十年里成为股票的净卖家.
这些学者轻率地做出预测,认为这些投资者大规模被迫抛售将使得股票估值下滑至市盈率9倍的水平.
他们这是彻底疯了.

如果你相信这种看法的话,那么你阅读这篇文章无异于浪费时间.
把你的资金放在收益率几近为零的货币市场基金中好了.
最终你总会撞到大运而有正确的时候.
当我查看过去20年伦敦银行同业拆息(LIBOR)收益率时,我画出一条趋势线,指向4.
5%,这或许会在2016年发生.

与此同时,标普500指数自2009年春触底以来已上涨了100%.
根据苹果公司盈利不断增长以及目前估值偏低的情况,我曾预计苹果股票平均每月涨幅可达1.
5%.
然而,苹果股价每天上下波动的幅度就达3%,而且自去年底以来已上涨了50%.
在过去六个月里,标普500指数从1,100上涨到近1,400,这是在美国企业的经营状况有根本好转之后(而不是之前)出现的.

由于标普500指数在去年进行了大规模调整,其中有25%的成分股做了调整,其余没有调整的股票目前实际上已相当于标普500指数在2007年创下峰值时各自的市场估值.
而许多金融股的股价要比各自在2007年市场处于峰值时低得多,但这又怎样呢或许金融股会成为明年的投资热点.

所有这些差异都反映在美国几大股指的相对表现之上.
今年以来,标普500指数相比罗素2000中小市值股票指数较有竞争力,而且与新兴市场指数、英国富时指数的表现几乎一样出色.
成长型股票的表现轻而易举地比价值型股票高出约400个基点.

成长型股票与价值型股票之间如此巨大的表现差异很可能是2012年关键的投资动向.
与诸如卡特彼勒公司(Caterpillar)及美国联合技术公司(UnitedTechnologies)等标志性工业股相比,许多成长型股票目前仍然太过便宜了.
苹果在最近这波出色表现之后,其股价仍然只是其未来12个月预期每股盈利的12倍.
而相比之下,卡特彼勒的市盈率为15倍.

至于在标普500指数中占据12%权重的能源板块,我预计到今年底该板块股票价格将相比目前跌去5%至10%.
在未来几年内将有太多的能源供应进入市场.
到目前为止,我这个看法颇为正确,而这对于消费者支出而言可谓是利好信号.

从较深的基础层面来看,标普500指数的各板块之间将会出现较大的表现差异.
别太关注于市场是否会形成新的最高点位.
伊卡洛斯(Icarus)目前还很安全.
公司运营利润率及营收增长是股票的关键指标.
伯南克宣布未来不会推出新刺激措施的声明早该公布了,而且应被理解为美联储对美国GDP未来增长在剔除通胀因素后将接近长期趋势线的认可.

直接采取算数平均计算而得的价值线综合平均指数(ValueLineIndex)早在2010年就轻易地超过了其2007年的最高位,如今又上涨了20%.
纳斯达克远未进入超买状态.
诸如摩根大通等较为优质的银行股已涨回到以前在2008年时创下的最高价位附近,但估值远未高估.
我坚决持有,超配在标普500指数中占有10%权重的金融板块,但金融板块的股价走势如坐过山车般涨跌动荡较大.

我对标普500指数能够想到的最坏情况,是由于能源及金融板块有些疲弱而导致该指数进入一个时间较久的盘整期.
这两个板块加在一起占该指数的权重达25%.
利率可能会小幅走高,所以你将会在美国国债及投资级公司债上亏钱.

伊卡洛斯跌回地球的唯一途径是联邦开支削减及明年初布什减税政策到期失效成为现实.
美国联邦财政开支很可能缩减1.
5%,但不会像提案中那样缩减4%.

技术分析者认为目前股市已处于超买状态,但纽约证券交易所的股票交易量正不断刷新纪录.

你自己做出选择吧.
马丁·索斯洛夫(MartinT.
Sosnoff)是亚特兰大索斯洛夫资本管理有限公司(AtalantaSosnoffCapital)的创始人兼董事长,该私人投资管理公司管理着超过80亿美元的资产.
索斯洛夫已出版两本有关自己华尔街从业经验的书:《华尔街上的谦逊》(HumbleonWallStreet)、《沉默的投资者,无言的失败者》(SilentInvestor,SilentLoser).
他多年担任《福布斯》杂志专栏作家,并担任《纽约邮报》(NewYorkPost)专栏作家三年.
文中提到的索斯洛夫个人拥有、或其公司为客户持有的股票有:IBM、微软、思科、辉瑞、苹果、卡特彼勒、联合技术及摩根大通.

GoogleQ1RevsInLine;EPSEdgesStreet;SetsOdd2-For-1Split;ShrRiseGooglethisafternoonreportedQ1revenuesextrafficacquisitioncostsof$8.
14billion,rightaboutinlinewiththeStreetconsensusat$8.
15billoon.
Non-GAAPprofitsof$10.
08asharewereaheadoftheStreetat$9.
65ashare.
Googlesitesrevenueswereup24%;partnersitesrevenuesrose20%.
Paidclicksrose39%fromayearagoand7%fromQ4.
Costperclickasdown12%formayearagoand6%fromQ4.
Thecompanyalsoannouncedplanstoissueastockdividendofoneshareofanewclassofnon-votingstockthatwilltradeontheNASDAQ–ClassCshares–inwhatiseffectivelyatwo-for-onestocksplit.
TheoldclassAshareswillstilltradeasGOOG,whilethenewClassCshareswillgetanewtickernotyetannounced.
Google,unabletodoanythingthenormalway,isgivingthisaGooglesquetwistbycreatinganewclassofsharesratherthansimplydoublingthenumberofexistingsharesoutstanding.
Thecompanydidnotgiveadistributiondateforthestockdividend.
"Googlehadanothergreatquarterwithrevenuesup24%yearonyear,"CEOLarryPagesaidinastatement"Wealsosawtremendousmomentumfromthebigbetswe'vemadeinproductslikeAndroid,ChromeandYouTube.
Wearestillattheveryearlystagesofwhattechnologycandotoimprovepeople'slivesandwehaveenormousopportunitiesahead.
ItisaveryexcitingtimetobeatGoogle.
"Asforthesplit,thecompanysaidthatthestructureis"designedtopreservethecorporatestructurethathasallowedGoogletoremainfocusedonthelongterm.
"Sincethenewshareswillbenon-voting,sellingthemwillnotreduceashareholder'svotinginterestinthecompany.
GooglenotesthatChairmanEricSchmidtandco-foundersPageandSergeyBrinwillbesubjecttoa"stapling"agreementthatwillrequirethemtosellvotingsharesiftheydecidetosellanynon-votingshares.
GooglesaidaspecialboardcommitteehasbeenworkingonaplanforcreatinganewclassofstocksinceJanuary2011.
Theproposalissubjecttoholderapproval–andgiventheLarryandSergey'svotingcontrol,itwillcertainlybeapproved.
Inalong"foundersletter"postedinconjunctionwiththeearningsrelease,Pageandco-founderSergeyBrinexplainedtheoddapproachtosplittingthestock.
Inshortitisdesignedtomakesuretheycontinuetocontrolthecompany.
"Throughoutourevolution,fromprivatelyheldstart-uptolarge,publiclylistedcompany,wehavemanagedGoogleforthelongterm–enjoyingtremendoussuccessasaresult,especiallysinceourIPOin2004,"theywrote.
"SergeyandIhoped,thoughwedidnotexpect,thatGooglewouldhavesuchsignificantimpact,andthisprogresshasmadeusevenmoreimpatienttodoimportantthingsthatmatterintheworld.
OurenduringloveforGooglecomesfromastrongdesiretocreatetechnologyproductsthatenrichmillionsofpeople'slivesindeepandmeaningfulways.
Tofulfillthesedreams,weneedtoensurethatGoogleremainsasuccessful,growingbusinessthatcangeneratesignificantreturnsforeveryoneinvolved.
"Theletterlaysouttherecasefortakingsuchanunusualapproachtosplittingtheshares:"Todayweannouncedplanstocreateanewclassofnon-votingcapitalstock,whichwillbelistedonNASDAQ,"PageandBrinwrote.
"Theseshareswillbedistributedviaastockdividendtoallexistingstockholders:theownerofeachexistingsharewillreceiveonenewshareofthenon-votingstock,givinginvestorstwicethenumberofsharestheyhadbefore.
It'seffectivelyatwo-for-onestocksplit–somethingmanyofourinvestorshavelongaskedusfor.
Thesenon-votingshareswillbeavailableforcorporateuses,likeequity-basedemployeecompensation,thatmightotherwisediluteourgovernancestructure.
Werecognizethatsomepeople,particularlythosewhoopposedthisstructureatthestart,won'tsupportthischange–andweunderstandthatothercompanieshavebeenverysuccessfulwithmoretraditionalgovernancemodels.
Butaftercarefulconsiderationwithourboardofdirectors,wehavedecidedthatmaintainingthisfounder-ledapproachisinthebestinterestsofGoogle,ourshareholdersandourusers.
Havingtheflexibilitytousestockwithoutdilutingourstructurewillhelpensurewearesetupforsuccessfordecadestocome.
InNovember2009,SergeyandIpublishedplanstosellamodestpercentageofouroverallstock,endingin2015.
Wearecurrentlyhalfwaythroughthoseplansandwedon'texpectanychangestothat,certainlynotastheresultofthisnewpotentialclass.
WebothremainverymuchcommittedtoGoogleforthelongterm.
It'simportanttobearinmindthatthisproposalwillonlyhaveaneffectongovernanceovertheverylongterm.
Infact,there'snoparticularurgencytomakethesechangesnow–wedon'thaveanunusuallybigacquisitionplanned,incaseyouwerewondering.
It'sjustthatsinceweknowwhatwewanttodo,there'snoreasontodelaythedecision.
Alsonotethattherewillbenoimmediatechangeinvotes,becauseeveryonewillstillhavethesamenumber.
Inaddition,Eric,SergeyandIhaveallagreedto"stapling"arrangementssothat,abovesetthresholds,ifoureconomicinterestinGoogleweretodecline,ourvoteswouldaswell.
Wealsohaveprovisionstoensureallshareholdersaretreatedfairlyfromaneconomicperspective.
"Withthepost-earningscallstillahead,GOOGinlatetradingisup$5.
44,or0.
8%,to$656.
45.
Update:Herearesomekeytidbitsfromthereleaseandthepost-reportcall:Thecompanyendedthequarterwith$49.
3billionincash.
Headcountatquarterendas33,077,upfrom32,467attheendofDecember.
Non-GAAPoperatingmarginwas37%,downfrom38%ayearago.
CEOLarryPagefocusedfirstonperformance.
Hesaystheyhadaverystrongquarter.
Hesayshehaspushedhardtoincreasethecompany'svelocity.
Butthattheystillhavethepassionandsoulofastartup.
Pagesaystheyhavefocusedonhavingasimpler,moreintuitiveexperienceonthesite.
Pagesayshejustpassed2millionfollowersonGoogle+.
Hesaysover170millionpeopleareonGoogle+.
Chromehasover200millionusers.
Displayhasover$5billioninannualizedrunraterevenue.
Androidactivationsareover850,000aday.
Onthesplit,Pagesaysthatthroughoutthecompany'sevolutiontheyhavemanagedthecompanyforthelongterm.
Hesaysday-to-daydilutionfromemployeestockoptionsandacquisitionwilldilutetheoriginalstructureofthecompanyoverthelongterm,whichisakeyreasonwhytheycreatedanewclassofstock.
Thenewnon-votingsharescanbeusedforequityincentivesandotherpurposes.
Pagetheydonothaveaparticularlybigacquisitionplanned.
(Theysaidthesamethingintheletter.
)Drummondalsodiscussedthesplitinmoredetail.
ThenewstockwillbeliketheClassAandClassBshares,butwithnovotingstock.
Holderswillnowownthereoriginalshares,plusashareofthenewClassCshares.
Drummondemphasizedthateveryholderwillretainthesamevotinginterestpriortothedividend.
CFOPatrickPichettenotedthatrevenuewasup1%sequentially.
Henotedthattherewasstrengthinmostgeographiesandnverticals.
Pichettenotedthatthebusinessishealthy;thatshiftsinpaidclicksandCPCseparatelydonotreflectthebusiness,hesays.
HesaysthereareacomplexsetoffactorsaffectingCPCandclicktrends,includingmobile,andFX.
HenotesthatthedynamicsaroundCPCandpaidclicksareverycomplex,sotryingtopickoutsinglefactors"doesn'tmakesense.
"HesayslowerCPCsofferopportunityforadvertiserstogetbetterreturnontheirpaidclicks.
Pichettesaysthecompanyconsidersitscashpositionisastrategicassetthathas"atonofvalue.
"(Inotherword,nocashdividendannouncementtoday.
)Afterthecall,GOOGisup$2.
46,or0.
4%,to$653.
47.
谷歌宣布拆股,旨在保住创始人大权谷歌公司(Google)周四发布了第一季度财报.
不计流量获得成本,谷歌第一季度的营业收入为81.
4亿美元,与华尔街的预期(81.
5亿美元)大体相同.
按照非公认会计准则(Non-GAAP),每股收益10.
08美元,高于华尔街的预期(9.
65美元).

当季谷歌站点营收同比增长24%;合作网站营收同比增长20%;付费点击同比增长39%,环比增长7%.
每点击成本(CPC)同比下降12%,环比下降6%.
此外,这家公司宣布将发行一种不含投票权,即将在纳斯达克股市交易的新型股票(C类股),以此种形式向现有股东派发股息——这实际是以2:1的比例进行拆股.
现有的A类股将依然交易(股票代码:GOOG),而新发行的C类股将拥有一个尚未发布的新代码.
从不循规蹈矩的谷歌公司这次也极具谷歌特色地创造出一种新型股票,而不是简单地把流通股的数量翻一番.

该公司没有公布这次"派息"的实施日期.
"谷歌公司又经历了一个伟大的季度,营收同比增长24%,"CEO拉里·佩奇(LarryPage)在一份声明中说.
"在我们做出巨大投入之后,Android、Chrome和YouTube等产品也出现了强劲的增势.
在技术改善人类生活的潜能方面,我们依然处于非常初期的阶段,但前景非常广阔.
身处谷歌公司是一件非常令人激动的事情.
"该公司对分拆股票进行了解释:设计这种股权结构"旨在维系使得谷歌公司专注于长期发展的公司治理结构.
"鉴于新股不含投票权,售出新股将不会减少股东在公司的投票权益.
谷歌公司指出,董事长埃里克·施密特(EricSchmidt)、联合创始人佩奇和谢尔盖·布林(SergeyBrin)将受到一份"U字钉(stapling)"协议的约束——如果他们决定出售不含投票权的股票,他们就必须同时售出含投票权的股票.
谷歌表示,一个由公司董事组成的特别委员会自2011年1月份以来,一直在酝酿创造一种新型股票.
这项提议还需经过股东批准——鉴于两位创始人拥有的表决控制权,这项提议肯定会被批准.

在一份长长的"创始人信函"(连同收益报告一起发布),拉里·佩奇和谢尔盖·布林对这种奇异的拆股方式做了一番解释.
简言之,其目的在于确保他们两人持续掌控谷歌公司.

"在谷歌公司从最初一家私人持有企业到一家大型上市公司的演变历程中,我们自始至终从长远考虑,管理公司的各种事务——进而取得了巨大的成功,特别是自2004年上市以来,"他们写道.
"谢尔盖和我希望,但我们当初的确没料到,谷歌将产生如此巨大的影响.
这种进步使得我们更加迫不及待地想做对世界意义重大的事情.
我们对谷歌恒久不变的热爱源自一种强烈的欲望,即创造出能够以深刻且有意义的方式丰富数百万人生活的技术产品.
为了实现这些梦想,我们需要确保谷歌依然是一家业绩不断增长的成功企业,一家能够为所有与谷歌有关的人带来巨额回报的企业.
"这封信列举了采用这种别出心裁的拆股方式的理由:"今天,我们宣布计划创造一种新型无投票权股票,它将在纳斯达克证券市场挂牌交易,"佩奇和布林写道.
"这些股票将以股息的形式派发给全部现有股东:每持有1股的股东将获得1股不含投票权的股票,投资者持有的股票数量由此将增加一倍.
这实际是以2:1的比例进行拆股——也是公司投资者多年来的诉求.
这些不含投票权的股票可用于企业用途(比如采用股票形式发放的员工薪酬),由于不含投票权,这样做不会稀释公司治理结构.
"我们承认有一些人,特别是从一开始就反对这一结构的那些人,不会支持这一变化——我们也知道采用更传统治理模式的其它公司取得了非常巨大的成功.
但公司董事经过悉心斟酌之后达成共识:维持这种以创始人为主导的公司治理模式,符合谷歌、公司股东和用户的最佳利益.
在不稀释治理结构的前提下保持使用股票的灵活性,有助于我们为未来数十年的成功奠定良好的基础.

2009年11月份,谢尔盖和我宣布出售我们持有的全部股票的适当部分,出售日期截止2015年.
这些计划现在已执行了一半,而且不会出现任何变化,我们当然不会因为这种新型股票的发行而改变售股计划.
我们两人依然全心全意地致力于谷歌公司的长远发展.

需要铭记的是,这项提议只会在非常长的时期内对公司治理结构产生影响.
实际上,现在并没有什么特别紧迫的事情促使我们做出这些改变——为了避免大家生疑,我们特此声明我们并没有特别庞大的收购计划.
这样做是因为我们知道我们想做什么,而且没有理由推迟决定,仅此而已.
还需要指出的是,投票权不会即刻产生变化,因为每个人拥有的股票数量依然是相同的.
此外,埃里克、谢尔盖和我都同意签署"U字钉"协议:如果我们在谷歌的经济利益出现下降,我们的投票权也将随之下降.
我们还制定了条款来确保所有股东的经济前景将受到公平对待.

更新:以下是一些源自谷歌季报和业绩电话会议的关键信息点:截至2012年3月31日,谷歌拥有493亿美元的现金.
截至2012年3月31日,谷歌共有33,077名员工,较去年12月末的32,467名有所增加.

按照非公认会计准则计算,谷歌公司的运营利润率为37%,较一年前的38%略有下降.

CEO拉里·佩奇首先关注的是业绩表现.
他说谷歌经历了一个增势强劲的季度.
他表示,他一直在竭力提升公司的运行速度,但他们依然具有一家初创企业的激情和灵魂.

佩奇说他们注重用户在谷歌网站获得更简单,更直观的体验.
佩奇说他在Google+的追随者刚刚超过200万人.
他说Google+的用户现在已超过1.
7亿人.
Chrome拥有两亿多用户.
Display广告网络按年折算的收入超过50亿美元.
Android设备每天被激活逾85万次.
在解释拆股计划时,佩奇表示,在公司的演变历程中,他们自始至终从长远考虑,管理公司的各种事务.

他表示,从长远来看,源自员工股票期权和收购的日常性摊薄,将稀释公司原有治理结构,这是他们创造一种新型股票的重要原因之一.

新发行的不含投票权股票可以应用于股权激励和其他用途.
佩奇表示,谷歌目前并无特别庞大的收购计划(他在信中也做出了这样的表示).

谷歌高级副总裁兼首席法律顾问大卫·多姆德(DavidDrummond)也更为详尽地解释了此次拆股计划的细节.
新股将类似于A类股和B类股,但没有投票权.
股东现在将持有原有的股票和新发行的C类股.
多姆德强调指出,每位股票持有人将保持与股息派发前相同的投票权益.

谷歌公司首席财务官帕特里克·皮切特(PatrickPichette)指出,营收环比增长了1%.
他指出,谷歌公司在大多数地理区域及垂直市场的表现十分强劲.
皮切特指出,谷歌非常健康;付费点击和每点击成本分别出现的变化反映不出公司的状况,他说.
影响每点击成本和点击趋势的因素非常复杂,包括移动终端和FX等等.
他指出,围绕每点击成本和付费点击的动态变化非常复杂,因此试图挑出单一因素"没有任何意义.
"他说,每点击成本下降为广告商提供了一个通过付费点击获得更好回报的机会.

皮切特表示,谷歌公司认为其现金头寸是一种拥有"巨大价值"的战略资产(换言之,今天不会宣布发放现金股息的计划).

在电话会议结束后,谷歌股票上涨0.
4%(2.
46美元),上涨至653.
47美元.
Thanks,China:AnalystsSlaps$1000PriceTargetonAppleStockWell,itwasboundtohappeneventually.
Afteraparadeofever-higherpricetargetsforAmerica'sbelovedgadgetmaker,BrianWhiteofTopekaCapitalMarketslaunchedcoverageofApplethismorningwithafour-digitpricetarget:$1,001.
00.
Allofwhichraisesthequestionagain:HasApplefevergottenaheadofitselfAsitturnsout,'Applefever,'fedinpartbythecompany'sprospectsinChina,ispreciselythenotionthatWhite,formerlyofTiconderogaSecurities,usestojustifyhisbullishclaim.
WhitewritesinbreathlesstonesthismorningthatApple's'unmatchedaesthetics'andabrandthat'isabletotouchthesoulofconsumersofallbackgrounds'meansthat'Applefeverisspreadinglikeawildfirearoundtheworld.
'Ohyes,andlestyouraiseaskepticaleyebrow,headds:'Weseenoendinsighttothistrend'(emphasisours).
Yes,there'savaluationargumenttobemadehere,withWhitepeggingApple'sprice-to-forwardearnings(ex-cash)atunder10times.
Andyes,thedividendandbuybackApplelaunchedlastmonthisgoingtodrawinawholewaveofnewinvestors.
ButWhiteisn'tvaultingoveralltheotheranalystsbycallingAppleavalueplay.
Nosir,he'sgotafewotherfreshnewmarketstobeApple-feverishabout.
*TheInternet:AppleisgoingtoownthemobileInternet,thankstoitsbigsplashymoveto4G*ChinaChinaChina:IfyouthinkthemobileInternetisgoingtobefantastic,waittillyouseethemobileInternetinChina,where1.
4billionpeoplefiddlingwithmobiledeviceswillmakeit'awonderofthetechworld.
'Well,Appleistheretooand'wellpositionedtocapitalizeonthistrend.
'*Yourlivingroom:Yes,Applewillownyourlivingroomtoo.
HowWith'fullblownTV,'Mr.
Whitesays.
So,WallStreetanalysts,whatdoyousayDoIhaveanyhigherbidsonApple$1,000苹果目标股价破1,000美元多亏中国好吧,归根到底这是必然的事.
美国人心爱的电子产品制造商苹果公司的股票目标价位接连创下新高,随后美资券商TopekaCapitalMarkets的分析师怀特(BrianWhite)周二上午将苹果目标价调升至四位数,为1,001美元.
所有这一切令我们再次提出这个问题:"苹果热"是否有些过头了事实证明,"苹果热"正是曾在提康德罗加证券(TiconderogaSecurities)供职的怀特看涨苹果股价的理由.
苹果公司在中国的市场前景部分助推了"苹果热".

周二上午,怀特用激动的语气写道,苹果公司"无与伦比的美学理念"以及一个"能触及各类消费者灵魂"的品牌意味着"苹果热"正像野火一样在全球燃烧.
哦,是的,为了避免你对此提出疑义,他还补充说,我们认为这一趋势在可见的将来不会终结(他还记得特别强调"我们").

是的,眼下有关苹果股价的估值存在争论:怀特将苹果撇除现金的预期市盈率定在不到10倍的水平.
同时,上个月派发股息且回购股票的苹果也将吸引一批全新的投资者.

但怀特说苹果是价值投资并非超越了所有其他分析师的看法.
他还发现了另外一些将会掀起"苹果热"的新市场:互联网:苹果将要占领移动互联网,这多亏了其进军4G的重大举措.
中国、中国,还是中国:如果你认为移动互联网战略不太实际,那么请先看一看中国的移动互联网市场再发表高见吧.
14亿人摆弄着移动设备,这将成为科技界的一大奇观.
苹果已经进入了这一市场,且充分准备好把握这一趋势.

你的客厅:是的,苹果也将占领你的客厅.
如何占领怀特说,凭借性能全面的电视机.

各位华尔街分析师,你们怎么看有没有人给出比1,000美元更高的目标价Stocks,CommoditiesNosediveOnEuropeanWoes:DailyMarketsWrapGlobalstocksretreatedforasecondstraightdayWednesdayoveradisappointingSpanishdebtauctionandcommentsbytheheadoftheeurozone'scentralbankthatsomeGreekbanksmaycollapseinsteadofbeingrecapitalized.
Spainsoldjust2.
6billion($3.
4billion)ofbonds,comparedwithamaximumtargetof3.
5billion,andatyieldsthatwerewellabovepreviousauctions.
AtamonthlyconferenceheldWednesday,EuropeanCentralBankPresidentMarioDraghisuggestedthatsomeGreekbanksmaylosetheiraccesstofundingfromtheECBduringtheirrecapitalization,raisingrenewedconcernsabouttheoutlookforGreece.
Newdataonbusinessactivityandretailsalesintheeurozoneconfirmedearlierevidencethattheregionisinrecession.
AreadingonU.
S.
privatesectoremploymentthatwasroughlyinlinewithexpectationsfailedtoliftinvestors'sentiment,whileaseparatereportshowedservicesectoractivitiesinMarchcameinatouchbelowforecast.
Stocks.
ThebenchmarkS&P500indexpulledback14.
45points,toendat1,398.
93.
SanDiskCorp.
(Nasdaq:SNDK),theday'sworst-performingstock,tankedmorethan11percenttocloseat$44.
51ashare,afterthecompanylowereditsfirst-quarteroutlook.
TheDowJonesIndustrialAverageerased124.
88points,to13,074.
67.
Thetech-heavyNasdaqslid45.
48points,to3,068.
09.
EuropeanandAsianmarketsalsofinishedinthered.
Bonds.
Investorsfledtosafety,pushingthe10-yearTreasuryyieldsdownto1.
8percent.
TheyieldsonSpanishandItalianbondssurged,withtheyieldonthefive-yearSpanishbondrisingtoa12-weekhigh.
Currencies.
TheU.
S.
dollarroseagainsttheeurobutlostgroundagainsttheJapaneseyen.
TheICEdollarindexclimbedto79.
75,thehighestinmorethantwoweeks.
TheChileanpeso,theIndianrupeeandtheBrazilianrealdeclined.
Commodities.
Pricessankacrosstheboard.
Crudefuturestumbled2.
3percenttotheirlowestinsevenweeksafteraweeklygovernmentdatashowedasteepsupplyincrease.
Gasolineandheatingoilalsofellonthenews.
GoldforJunedeliveryfell3.
5percent,a12-weeklow,tosettleat$1,614.
10anounce,whilesilverplunged6.
7percent.
Grainsfuturesmostlyfell.
欧洲灾难导致股市和大宗商品暴跌周三,因为不如人意的西班牙国债拍卖和欧元区央行行长的希腊银行业将会崩溃而非再融资的言论,全球股市连续第二天下跌.

西班牙计划发售的35亿欧元国债只售出26亿(34亿美元),收益率也远高于以前.
在周三的每月例会上,欧洲央行行长马里奥·德拉吉称部分希腊银行可能在再融资期间丧失得到欧央行资金的资格,提高对希腊前景的忧虑.

新的欧元区商业活动和零售业数据印证了之前显示欧元区处于衰退中的证据.
美国私营部门就业情况数据和预期基本一致,没能激发投资人的热情,而另一份报告显示三月服务业活跃情况略低于预报.

股市.
指标性的标普500指数回落14.
45点收于1398.
93点.
调低一季度盈利前景的闪迪(SanDisk)股票当天表现最差,下跌超过11%收于每股44.
51美元.
道琼斯工业指数下跌124.
88点,收于13,074.
67点.
高技术板块纳斯达克指数下跌45.
48点,收于3,068.
09点.
欧洲和亚洲股市也多数下跌.

债券.
投资人逃向避险领域,把10年期美国国债收益率压倒1.
8%.
西班牙和意大利国债收益率激增,5年期西班牙国债升到12周一来的高点.

货币.
美元对欧元升值,但对日元下跌.
洲际交换指数升至79.
75,这是两周多来的高位.
智利比索,印度卢比和巴西雷亚尔都下跌.

大宗商品.
大部下挫.
政府周报数据显示原油供应量激增,原油期货下跌2.
3%到7周来的地位.
汽油和取暖用油也因此下跌.
6月交割的黄金下跌3.
5%到12周来的低位,每盎司1,614.
10美元.
银价也下跌了6.
7%.
谷物期货大部下跌.

NewEuropeWoesHitStocksAwaveofsellingrolledthroughfinancialmarketsonbothsidesoftheAtlanticTuesday,shatteringacalmthathaspervadedglobalmarketsforthepastfewmonths,asconcernsflaredanewaboutEurope'stroubledeconomies.
InvestorsaregrowingincreasinglyskepticalabouttheabilityofSpainandotherheavilyindebtednationstosuccessfullyimplementmandatedausteritymeasures.
Theworry:Deepspendingcutsandincreasedtaxescouldsendthoseeconomiesintoadownwardspiral,makingiteventoughertohandletheirdebtloads.
'Nowpeoplearebeginningtolookatfundamentalsandwondering,'Cantheyachieveit,''saidDavidTan,headofglobalratesatJ.
P.
MorganAssetmanagementinLondon.
'Peoplearelookingatthemathandsaying,'No,itdoesn'taddup.
''InvestorsdumpedItalianandSpanishbonds,sendingpricesdownandyieldstotheirhighestlevelsthisyear.
Italianstocksfellalmost5%,totheirlowestsinceNovember,andSpanishstockstumbledtotheirlowestclosesinceMarch2009.
InvestorsflockedtosafehavenssuchasU.
S.
andGermangovernmentbonds,pushingpricesupandyieldssharplylower.
Thebenchmark10-yearTreasurynotefellbackbelowthecloselywatched2%level,to1.
988%.
IntheU.
S.
,worriesaboutEuropecombinedwithrecentsignsofweaknessintheeconomicrecoverytoknocktheDowJonesIndustrialAveragedown213.
66points,or1.
65%,to12715.
93,itsbiggestdeclineoftheyear.
Tuesday'sselloffpushedtheDow'slosingstreaktomorethan4%overfivedays.
Thedeclinescomeatatimewhenmanyinvestorswerealreadybeginningtodoubtthedurabilityofrecentstock-marketgains.
Comingintothisweek,theDowwasuproughly23%fromlowshitinearlyOctoberandup7%in2012.
DanGreenhaus,chiefglobalstrategistatbrokeragefirmBTIGLLC,isamonganalystswhohavebeencallingforU.
S.
stockstopullbackroughly5%to7%.
TheypointtothedisappointingU.
S.
economy,Europeanworriesandthepossibilitycorporateearningsthisquartermaybelackluster.
'Declineslikethataretotallynormal'aftersuchamajorrally,Mr.
Greenhaussaid.
Andpositivecatalystscouldalwaysemergetopropupthemarkets.
IntheU.
S.
,thefirst-quartercorporateearningsseasongotofftoastrongstartTuesdaywithreportsfromAlcoaInc.
andpositivecommentsfromglass-containermakerOwens-IllinoisInc.
Sometechnicalanalystspointtosignstheysaypointtofurtherdeclines,atleastintheU.
S.
TheStandard&Poor's500-stockindexfellbelowitsso-called50-daymovingaverage,anindicatorofmarketmomentum,suggestingtheindexislosingsteam.
MuchoftherallyinEuropehasbeenattributedtoEuropeanCentralBankstimulusthatbeganinDecember.
Butthathaslargelywornoff,andECBPresidentMarioDraghiindicatedlastweekheisn'tinclinedtostepbackin.
TheU.
S.
economyisshowingsignsofstruggling.
Atthesametime,someinvestorsworryFederalReserveChairmanBenBernankeislikelytowaitforfurthersignsofweaknessbeforehewouldlaunchathirdroundofthestimulatorybondbuyingknownasquantitativeeasing.
Tuesday'stumultraisesthepossibilitytheEuropeandebtcrisisisbeginningadifficultnewchapter,oneinwhichpolicymakersandthepopulationareforcedtofacethescopeofeconomictransformationnecessarytocutgovernments'massivedebtloads.
ThedropinEuropecameafteralongEasterweekend.
Tuesdaywasmanyinvestors'firstchancetoreacttodisappointingU.
S.
jobsdata.
Aswell,onMonday,Spain'sgovernmentannounced10billionofspendingcutsinhealthandeducation.
Innormaltimes,suchagestureoffiscalrestraintmightreassurebondmarkets.
Butincreasingly,investorshavegrownconcernedthatmeasureslikethisincountriessuchasGreece,Portugal,ItalyandSpainmayhurttheireconomiestoomuchastheystrugglewiththeirdebts.
Spanish10-yeargovernment-bondyieldsclimbed0.
21percentagepointto5.
95%aspricesdeclined.
Thoughthatyieldisstillwellawayfromthe7%leveleconomistsconsiderunsustainable,manytraderspredictthebondselloffcouldaccelerateifyieldspassthe6%level,ashashappenedinthepast.
Inanewsignthenervousnessisspreading,Italian10-yearyieldsroseto5.
67%.
AfterthecompletionofasecondbailoutforGreecewheredockworkersbeganatwo-daystrikeTuesdaytoprotestsocial-securitychangesandplanstoderegulateshippingthefocusoftheeurozone'sthree-yeardebtcrisishasshiftedtoSpainandItaly.
TherecentriseinborrowingcostsisundoingthesharpdropsinceDecember,whentheECBbeganofferingunlimitedthree-yearloanstoeuro-zonebanks.
Thecentralbankhaslentmorethan1trilliontobanksundertheprogram.
SomeEuropeanbanks,inturn,usedpartofthemoneytobuyEuropeangovernmentbonds,helpingbolstertheirpricesandholddowngovernments'interestcosts.
Foratime,itseemedtherewasachancesuchavirtuouscyclewouldbeabletoslowthedebtcrisis.
Butthereisalsothechanceitcouldleadtoaso-callednegativefeedbackloop.
Demandforthebondsappearstobewaning;aSpanishdebtauctionlastweekwaspoorlyreceived.
ThatinturnhashurtEuropeanbanks.
Withmassiveamountsoftheircapitalinvestedingovernmentbonds,bankshavebecometetheredtothatmarket.
SwingsinpricesforEuropeansovereigndebtnowsparkgreaterconcernsaboutthesolvencyofthefinancialinstitutions.
SomeEuropeanbankchiefsonTuesdaycalledontheECBtoreviveitsstimulusefforts.
AlfredoSáenz,chiefexecutiveofSpain'sBancoSantanderSA,thelargestbankintheeurozonebymarketvalue,calledforECBpurchasesofgovernmentdebt,somethingthecentralbankhasbeenloathtodoexceptinsmallquantities.
'TheECBhashelpedmonetaryexpansionwithitsrecentmeasures,butinmyopinion,itshouldbemoreaggressiveinthepurchaseofgovernmentandbankdebtthatis,strongerEuropeanquantitativeeasing,'Mr.
Sáenzsaidatabankingconference.
SuchamovewouldreopenariftontheECB'sgoverningboard.
TwoofGermany'stopofficialsatthecentralbankresignedovertheissuelastyear,andGermanBundesbankheadJensWeidmannhasbeenaleadingcriticofECBbond-buying.
ItwouldalsobeaquickpolicyU-turnafterMr.
Draghi'scommentslastweek.
SpanishpolicymakersattemptedtoshoreupconfidenceinSpainataseriesofpublicappearances.
'Theagendaofreformsgoeson,becauseweareconvincedthatwithaneconomybasedonausterity,reformsandequalitySpaincanemergefromitscrisis,'FinanceMinisterLuisdeGuindossaidataconference.
欧债危机担忧再起国际金融市场重挫随着投资者对欧洲困难经济体的担忧再度燃起,一股抛售浪潮周二席卷大西洋两岸金融市场,打破了过去几个月国际市场的平静.

投资者越来越怀疑西班牙和其他高负债国家能否有效实施强制紧缩措施.
他们担心的是,大幅削减支出、增加税收可能会让这些经济体陷入下行螺旋,使其更难应对债务负担.

摩根大通资产管理(J.
P.
MorganAssetManagement)驻伦敦的全球利率部门负责人DavidTan说,现在大家开始考察基本面,并考虑这些国家能不能实现目标;大家看着数字说,这事不太靠谱.

投资者抛售意大利和西班牙国债,导致价格下跌、收益率升至年初以来最高.
意大利股市下挫近5%,跌至去年11月以来最低水平;西班牙股市跌至2009年3月以来最低收盘水平.

投资者纷纷买进美国和德国国债等避险资产,导致其价格上涨、收益率大幅下降.
基准10年期美国国债的收益率降至1.
988%,再次回落到受密切关注的2%关口下方.

在美国,投资者对欧洲的担忧加上近期经济复苏乏力的迹象,导致道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数(DowJonesIndustrialAverage)下跌213.
66点至12715.
93点,跌幅1.
65%.
创下今年以来的最大跌幅.
截至周二,道指连续五天下跌,总共跌去4%有余.

此时很多投资者已经开始怀疑近期股市涨势能不能维持下去.
到本周开始,道指较去年10月上旬触及的低点上涨约23%,2012年以来上涨7%.

经纪公司BTIGLLC首席全球策略师格林豪斯(DanGreenhaus)等分析师曾预计美股将回调5%到7%左右.
他们的理由是美国经济不如人意、欧洲状况令人担忧,而本季度公司业绩可能也是平淡无奇.

格林豪斯说,在经历如此大幅反弹之后,这样的下跌完全是正常的.
而利好因素完全有可能出现,给市场带来支撑.
在美国,一季度财报发布期在周二以美国铝业公司(AlcoaInc.
)的财报强劲开局,玻璃容器制造商Owens-IllinoisInc.
也发表了乐观言论.
一些技术分析师说,迹象表明市场还会进一步下跌,至少在美国如此.
标准普尔500种股票指数(Standard&Poor's500-stock)跌破50日"移动平均线",意味着该指数正在失去动力.
过去欧洲股市的反弹很大程度上归因于欧洲央行(EuropeanCentralBank)始于去年12月的刺激措施.
但刺激措施的效力基本已经消失,而欧洲央行行长德拉吉(MarioDraghi)上周也暗示他不愿出台新的刺激措施.
美国经济出现了一些艰难迹象.
与此同时,部分投资者担心美联储(FederalReserve)主席贝南克(BenBernanke)可能要等到更多疲软迹象出现,然后才推出第三轮量化宽松措施,也就是通过购买债券刺激经济.

周二的震荡让人看到欧债危机进入新的艰难阶段的可能性.
在新阶段中,政策制定者和普通民众将不得不面对大规模的经济转型,这是削减政府庞大债务所必需的.

欧洲股市下跌是在刚刚过完复活节长周末之后.
许多投资者一直到周二才有机会对令人失望的美国就业数据做出反应.
另外,西班牙政府周一宣布,在医疗和教育方面削减100亿欧元支出.

一般情况下,这种紧缩财政的姿态可能会对债市起到一定的支撑.
但是,投资者现在越来越担心,在希腊、葡萄牙、意大利和西班牙等国奋力解决债务问题之际,推出这类措施可能会严重损害其自身经济.

西班牙10年期国债价格下跌,收益率上升0.
21个百分点,至5.
95%.
虽然这个收益率仍远低于7%这个经济学家认为不可持续的水平,但很多交易员预测,如果收益率突破6%,那么西班牙国债的抛盘可能会加速.
这种情况以前发生过.

市场紧张情绪蔓延的一个新迹象是,意大利10年期国债收益率升至5.
67%.
在完成对希腊的第二轮救助后,对欧元区已持续三年的债务危机的关注焦点转向了西班牙和意大利.
周二,希腊的码头工人开始了为期两天的罢工活动,反对社保改革和解除航运监管计划.

借贷成本近来的上升扭转了去年12月以来大幅下降的势头,当时欧洲央行开始向欧元区银行提供无限制的三年期贷款.

欧洲央行已向该计划覆盖的银行提供了逾1万亿欧元的贷款.
其中一些欧洲银行会用部分贷款购买欧洲政府债券,从而帮助支撑国债价格,压低政府的利息成本.
这种良性循环曾一度被认为可以缓和欧债危机.

不过,此举也可能会形成一个所谓的"负面反馈回路".
对欧洲债券的需求似乎正在减弱,上周西班牙国债拍卖反响平平.

而这又影响到了欧洲银行.
由于大举投资政府债券,这些银行已与债市成了一条船上的蚂蚱.
现在,欧洲主权债务价格的波动更能让人对金融机构的偿付能力表示担心.

一些欧洲银行行长周二呼吁欧洲央行重新出台刺激计划.
市值最大的欧元区银行西班牙国家银行(BancoSantanderSA)的首席执行长萨恩斯(AlfredoS口enz)呼吁欧洲央行购买政府债务.
欧洲央行一直不愿这么做,除非只是小规模的购买.

萨恩斯在一个银行业会议上说:欧洲央行最近的举措在一定程度上加速了货币扩张,但我认为,欧洲央行应该更加积极地购买政府和银行债务,也就是说,加大欧洲定量宽松的力度.

但此举会再度令欧洲央行理事会成员之间产生分歧.
去年,两位德国高管就因此事从欧洲央行辞职,德国央行(GermanBundesbank)行长魏德曼(JensWeidmann)是欧洲央行购债行动的主要批评者.
在欧洲央行行长德拉吉上周发表讲话后,该行政策也可能迅速出现180°大转弯.

西班牙决策者试图借一系列公开露面的机会提振投资者对西班牙的信心.
西班牙财政大臣德金多斯(LuisdeGuindos)在一次会议上说:西班牙会继续推进改革议程,因为我们深信,在紧缩、改革和公平的基础上,西班牙经济可以走出危机.

StocksEndFive-DaySkidU.
S.
stocksbouncedbackWednesdayafterafive-dayslide,bolsteredbyastrongstarttothecorporate-earningsseasonsandadropinSpanishandItaliangovernmentborrowingrates.
TheDowJonesIndustrialAverageclimbed89.
46points,or0.
70%,to12805.
39,onedayaftertheblue-chipindexdeclined1.
7%,foritsfifthstraightdeclineanditsbiggestfalloftheyear.
TheStandardPoor's500-stockindexadvanced10.
12points,or0.
74%,to1368.
71,whiletheNasdaqCompositerose25.
24points,or0.
84%,to3016.
46.
LeadingthegainsonWednesdaywerefinancialandconsumer-discretionarystocks,twoofTuesday'shardest-hitsectors.
BankofAmericarose3.
8%,Boeinggained1.
7%,GeneralElectricadvanced1.
4%,andJ.
P.
MorganChasepickedup2.
4%onadayinwhichall10sectorsoftheS&P500wereinpositiveterritory.
AlcoawasthebiggestadvanceramongDowcomponents,jumping6.
2%afterastrongstarttoanewseasonofcorporateearningsreports.
Thealuminummakerpostedasurprisefirst-quarteradjustedprofitof10centsashare,better-than-expectedrevenuegrowthandaffirmeditsforecastthatglobalaluminumdemandwouldincrease7%in2012.
"We'vehadagreatstarttoearningsseason,andIexpectalotmoreofthattounfoldbecauseofwhattheeconomyisdoing,"saidMichaelStrauss,chiefeconomistandchiefinvestmentstrategistatCommonfundinWilton,Conn.
"Theeconomicnumbersdomesticallyshouldbetheprimarydriverofourequitymarkets,andmaybeaftera3%to5%selloff,we'regettingsomere-focusonthat.
"InEurope,investorstooksomesolacefromremarksbyBenoitCoeure,amemberoftheEuropeanCentralBank'sexecutiveboard,whosuggestedthatthecentralbankcouldturntoitsbond-purchaseprogramagaintoeasestressinSpain.
Italy's10-yearbondyieldfellto5.
541%,from5.
695%Tuesday,andSpain's10-yearbondyielddroppedto5.
876%from5.
992%.
Separately,theregion'sbankstocksralliedafterHSBCupgradedthesectorto"overweight,"sayingtheforcesthathaddepressedearningsforthegrouparebeginningtoabate.
Europeanstocksrosebroadly.
TheGermanDAXindexclimbed1%toendafour-dayslide,andFrance'sCAC-40gained0.
6%.
"Wehavetheseinvestorsthataresofearfulofdownsidevolatility,they'reoverreactingtoanythingthatsuggestswemayhavearepeatofwhatwesawlastyear,"saidKristinaHooper,headofportfoliostrategiesatAllianzGlobalInvestors,whichmanages$40billioninU.
S.
retailassets.
Meanwhile,investorskeptaneyeondevelopmentsafteran8.
6-magnitudeearthquakehitoffthewesternmostprovinceofIndonesia,triggeringtsunamiwarningsintheregion.
AsianboursesendedmostlylowerinresponsetotheU.
S.
'slossesonTuesday.
Japan'sNikkeiStockAveragedropped0.
8%,itsseventhconsecutiveloss,tocloseatatwo-monthlow.
China'sShanghaiCompositebuckedthetrend,erasinganintradaylossofasmuchas1.
1%tocloseup0.
1%.
Crude-oilpricespushed1.
7%highertosettleat$102.
70abarrel,whilegoldpriceswereroughlyflatat$1,659atroyounce.
Thedollarfellagainsttheeurobuttickedupagainsttheyen.
DemandforTreasurysfell,sendingtheyieldonthebenchmark10-yearnotesoaringto2.
028%.
Ineconomicnews,thecostofgoodsimportedintotheU.
S.
inMarchposteditslargestgaininnearlyayear,aspetroleumpricesjumped.
TheU.
S.
federalbudgetdeficitalsocameinat$198.
2billion,atouchhigherthanexpectations.
TheFederalReserve'sso-called"beigebook"reportoneconomicactivitysaidtheU.
S.
economycontinuedtoexpandatamodest-to-moderatepacethroughtheendofMarch.
Incorporatenews,AmericandepositaryreceiptsofFinnishphonemakerNokiaplunged16%afteritwarnedthatcompetition,particularlyinIndia,theMiddleEast,AfricaandChina,wouldhititsfirst-quarterperformance.
TitanMachinerysurged17%afterthemakerofequipmentforbuildersandfarmersreportedfourth-quarterearningsandrevenuethatwerewellaboveexpectationsandprovidedanupbeatoutlookfor2012.
OpnetTechnologiesdropped13%afterthenetwork-performance-managementcompanyindicatedthatfiscalfourth-quarterearningsandrevenuewouldfallshortofexpectations.
AppliedMicroCircuitsgained8.
2%afterthecompanylowereditsoutlookforfiscalfourth-quarterrevenue,citingweaknessintheservice-providerandwire-linemarketsandprovidedaforecastforper-sharelossesthatwaswiderthancurrentprojections.
Owens-Illinoisjumped6.
9%afterthemakerofglasscontainersindicatedthatitsfirst-quarterresultswouldcomeinaboveexpectations,citingimprovedpricingtrendsandoperationalefficiencies.
MattressFirmHoldingsoared18%afterthecompanyreportedbetter-than-expectedfiscalfourth-quarterresultsandprovidedanupbeatoutlookforthecurrentyear.
美股反弹结束连续五个交易日下跌局面美国股市周三反弹,扭转连续五个交易日下滑的局面,主要因为业绩期开局良好,同时西班牙和意大利国债收益率下降也提振股市.

道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数涨89.
46点,至12805.
39点,涨幅0.
70%;该指数前日下跌1.
7%,创年内最大跌幅,同时也是连续第五个交易日下跌.
标准普尔500指数涨10.
12点,至1368.
71点,涨幅0.
74%.
纳斯达克综合指数涨25.
24点,至3016.
46点,涨幅0.
84%.

金融和非消费必需品类股领涨.
美国银行(BankofAmerica)涨3.
8%;波音公司(Boeing)涨1.
7%;通用电气(GeneralElectric)涨1.
4%;摩根大通(J.
P.
MorganChase)涨2.
4%.
标准普尔500指数10个分类指数均走高.
美国铝业(Alcoa)是涨幅最大的道指成分股,该股上涨6.
2%,因其以强劲的收益表现拉开了收益季的序幕.
该公司第一财政季度意外盈利,每股收益为10美分,且收入增长超出预期,并重申预计2012年全球铝需求将增长7%.

欧洲方面,欧洲央行(EuropeanCentralBank)执行理事会成员BenoitCoeure的一番讲话给投资者带来一丝安慰.
Coeure暗示,欧洲央行可能再度通过债券购买计划来缓解西班牙面临的压力.
意大利10年期国债收益率由周二的5.
695%降至5.
541%,西班牙10年期国债收益率由5.
992%降至5.
876%.

投资者同时还密切关注印尼西部苏门答腊岛海域发生的里氏8.
6级地震的势态发展,此次地震引发了该地区的海啸预警.

经济消息方面,美国3月份进口价格因为石油价格飙升的缘故而创下近一年来的最大涨幅.

美国联邦储备委员会(FederalReserve,简称Fed)周三发布《当前经济形势报告概要》(俗称"黄皮书"),称2月中旬至3月底,美国经济继续保持温和适中的复苏步伐.

个股方面,诺基亚(Nokia)的美国存托股票大跌16%,因该公司警告称,市场、尤其是印度、中东、非洲和中国市场的竞争形势将对第一财季业绩带来冲击.

TitanMachinery股价飙升17%;该公司此前公布的第四财季利润和收入远超预期,并对2012财年前景作出了乐观的预期.

荣群电讯(OpnetTechnologies)股价下跌13%,因该公司表示,第四财季利润和收入会逊于预期.

AppliedMicroCircuits股价涨8.
2%;该公司此前下调了第四财季收入预期,并且预计每股亏损会大于当前预期.

Owens-Illinois涨6.
9%;因该公司表示,第一财季业绩将好于预期,因为定价趋势和经营效率有所改善.

MattressFirmHolding飙升18%;因为该公司公布了强于预期的第四财季业绩,而且对当前财年也有乐观预期.

GlobalIPOsBoostedByPrivateEquityAsMarketsRecover-SurveyPrivateequityfirmsaretakingadvantageofrecoveringequitymarketstosellcompaniesininitialpublicofferingsoriginallyexpectedtotakeplacelastyear,accordingtoresearchreleasedWednesdaybyErnst&Young.
Thefirstquartersawprivateequity-backedIPOsmakeupoverathirdoftotalIPOvalueglobally.
Buyout-backeddealsaccountedfor$6.
1billionofatotal$16.
4billioninvalueandfor36ofthe181flotations.
WhileU.
S.
listingsdominated,Europeproducedthelargestprivateequity-backedIPOintheperiodwithDutchcablefirmZiggo(ZIGGO.
AE)listingonAmsterdam'sEuronextinanIPOvaluingthecompanyat3.
7billioneuros.
"TheU.
S.
economyseemstohaveturnedaroundanddomesticinvestorshavemuchmoreconfidence,"JeffBunder,globalprivateequityleaderatErnst&Young,toldDowJonesNewswires.
"ButeveninEuropewhereconfidencelags,companieswithgoodgrowthpotentialcangetofftheground--Ziggohasgoodfundamentalsandagreatcashflow,"hesaid.
BuyoutfirmshavetobalancethebenefitsofasalebyIPOagainsttheinherentrisks.
ValuationstendtobehigherforIPOexitsratherthanprivatesalestoatradebuyeroranotherprivateequityfirmbutthereisariskbecausebuyoutfirmsnevergetoutcompletelytypicallyselling10%or20%oftheirstake.
"IPOisanexitthatisnotreallyanexit--afirststepifyoulike,"saidBunder.
"Youdon'tdoitunlessyouareconvincedthereisagoodgrowthtrajectory.
"Meanwhile,privateequityfirmsthemselvesaretakingadvantageofmorebuoyantmarketswithOaktreeCapitalGroup,theU.
S.
-baseddistresseddebtinvestor,expectedtoraiseasmuchas$517.
5millioninanIPOinthecomingmonths.
TheCarlyleGroupisalsoontracktomakeitspublicmarketdebutshortly.
调查:私募股权投资公司助推全球IPO交易据安永会计师事务所(Ernst&Young)周三公布的调查报告显示,私募股权投资公司正借股市反弹的时机推动他们控制的公司进行首次公开募股(IPO),这些IPO交易原本计划在去年进行.

今年第一季度,由私募股权投资公司推动的IPO交易在全球IPO交易总额中的占比超过三分之一.
期间,私募股权投资公司推动的IPO交易额为61亿美元,交易数量36宗;全球IPO交易总额为164亿美元,交易数量总计181宗.

尽管第一季度美国市场的IPO交易规模居全球之首,但期间最大的由私募股权投资公司推动的IPO交易却出现在欧洲,即荷兰有线电视运营商Ziggo(ZIGGO.
AE)在泛欧交易所(Euronext)估值37亿欧元的IPO交易.
安永全球私募股权部门主管JeffBunder对道琼斯通讯社(DowJonesNewswires)称,美国经济似乎已经好转,国内投资者信心增强.
他称,即使在信心缺乏的欧洲市场,有良好增长潜力的公司还是可以脱颍而出,例如基本面良好、现金流强劲的Ziggo.

私募股权投资公司需平衡IPO交易的利弊.
就公司估值来说,通过IPO交易将控制的公司转手通常会高于将其出售给其他买家或另外一家私募股权投资公司,但其中也存在着风险,因通过IPO交易通常只能出售在所投资公司持股总量的10%或20%,而无法全身而退.

Bunder称,通过IPO交易退出所控制的公司并非真正意义上的退出,只能说是第一步.
除非确信公司有良好的增长前景,否则不宜采取这种做法.

与此同时,近期股市的上涨也令私募股权投资公司筹划自身的上市交易,包括计划在未来几个月通过IPO交易融资5.
175亿美元的不良债务投资公司OaktreeCapitalGroup.
另外,凯雷投资集团(CarlyleGroup)也计划不久后进行IPO.
Emerging-MarketStocksSputterEmerging-marketstocks,oneoflastyear'sworst-performingsectors,reboundedsharplytostarttheyear.
Butthegainshavefalteredinrecentweeks,andstrategistswarnthatslowingeconomicgrowthisthreateningtodragthegrouplowerinthesecondquarter.
TheMSCIEmergingMarketsIndexrose14%inthefirstthreemonthsof2012,outpacingtheStandard&Poor's500-stockindexbynearlytwopercentagepoints,onthewaytoitsbestfirstquartersince1992.
Thisyear'searlysurgefolloweda20%dropin2011versusaflatS&P500.
ButsharesofcompaniesbasedinAsia,LatinAmerica,EasternEuropeandpartsofAfricahavelaggedsincethemiddleofFebruary,withtheemerging-marketbenchmarklosingabout1.
3%comparedwitha3.
9%riseintheS&P500.
"Year-to-datereturnshavebeenquitedeceptive.
Allthatreallyhappenedin2012isatypicallypowerfulbear-marketbounceoff2011lows,"saidMichaelShaoul,chairmanofMarketfieldAssetManagement.
Moneyhasrushedintoemerging-marketstockmutualfundsthisyear.
Inthefirstquarter,emerging-marketstockfundssoakedup$25.
6billion,thebiggestnetquarterlyinflowsince2006,accordingtoEPFRGlobal,whichprovidesfund-flowsandasset-allocationdata.
Thatcompareswithinflowsof$1.
7billionintoU.
S.
stockfundsinthefirstquarter.
Butinvestors'moodcouldbechanging.
DuringthefinalweekofMarch,fundsflowedoutofemergingmarketsforthefirsttimethisyear.
Manyinvestorsareluredtoemerging-marketequitiesbecausetheytendtorisemoresharplywhenglobalmarketsadvance.
Twopopularemerging-marketexchange-tradedfunds,theVanguardMSCIEmergingMarketsETFandtheiSharesMSCIEmergingMarketsIndexFund,thesecond-andthird-largestequityETFsbymarketcapitalization,registeredgainsofmorethan100%fromthepost-financial-crisisbottomforU.
S.
stocks,inMarch2009,toU.
S.
stocks'peakinMay2011.
TheS&P500gainedmorethan80%duringthattimeperiod.
ButwhileU.
S.
stockshavehitnewmultiyearhighsthisyear,emerging-marketstockshaveyettotoplastyear'speak.
TherecentsputterinemergingmarketscoincidedwithaseriesofworryingreportsfromChina,theworld'ssecond-largesteconomy,aswellasfromIndiaandBrazil.
"Themarketperformanceofemerging-marketassetstendstobehighlycorrelatedtoeconomicperformanceandgrowth,"saidNickChamie,globalheadofemerging-marketsresearchatRBCDominionSecurities.
"Theongoingsoftdatacomingoutofemergingmarketswillweighonemerging-marketperformance.
"Mr.
Chamielastweekadvisedclientsto"tacticallytakeprofits"inemerging-marketassets.
Earlylastmonth,Chinacutits2012gross-domestic-productgrowthtargetto7.
5%,aneight-yearlow,from8%.
Twoweekslater,anexecutivefrommininggiantBHPBillitonsaidChina'sdemandforironore,usedinsteelmaking,isslowing.
Thismonth,mixedreadingsonmanufacturingconditionsinChinaperpetuatedgrowthconcerns.
Otheremerging-marketgrowthenginesalsoarelosingsteam.
Lastmonth,Indiareportedthatinthefourthquarterof2011itseconomygrewattheslowestpaceinmorethantwoyears,at6.
1%.
AMarchreportshowedBrazil'seconomygrewlessthan3%lastyear,wellbelowits7.
5%growthratein2010.
"Intheshortterm,growthisaconcern,"saidPaulNolte,managingdirectoratDearbornPartnersinChicago.
"Intheglobaleconomy,it'shardtoignorethe800-poundeconomies.
"Tobesure,emerging-marketgrowthremainsfarhigherthanintheeconomiesoftheU.
S.
,EuropeandJapan,andsomestrategistsarebullishondeveloping-worldstocksinthelongterm.
"There'snotnearthestoryinemergingmarketsthattherewasadecadeago,buttherearestillelementsofabuy-and-holdprofileasthesecountriesarebuildingoutinfrastructureandaburgeoningmiddleclass,"saidJimPaulsen,chiefinvestmentofficeratWellsCapitalManagement.
AverageGDPgrowthforecastsforemerging-marketeconomiesremainabove5%for2012,comparedwithabout2%fortheU.
S.
andcontractioninEurope,saidVijayChopra,managingdirectorofinternationalequityatHeckmanGlobalAdvisors.
"GDPgrowthforecastshavehelduprelativelywell,andthelong-termstoryisoutthere,"hesaid.
"Because[emerging-marketstocks]didsopoorlylastyear,they'rerelativelycheap.
"TheMSCIEmergingMarketsIndex'sforwardprice/earningsratioisabout10.
4,whiletheS&P500'sP/Eratioisabout13.
2.
Andwhilestrategistsarewarythatslowinggrowthwilldriveweaknessinemerging-marketstocksinthecomingmonths,somecontendthepullbackcouldbeanopportunityforthebuy-and-holdcrowd.
"EmergingmarketshavelaggedtheU.
S.
[inrecentweeks]butarestillinlinewiththedevelopedworld,"saidAdamGrimes,chiefinvestmentofficeratWaverlyAdvisors,aCorning,N.
Y.
-basedfirmthatadvisespensionfundsandmutualfunds.
"Weseeapotentialshort-termtacticalentrypointforemergingmarketsandwouldinitiatea'long'positiononstrengthoverthenextseveralweeks.
"新兴市场股市涨势受阻新兴市场股票是去年表现最差的资产类别之一,不过此类股票今年初出现了大幅反弹.
但最近几周新兴市场的股市涨势受阻,策略师们警告称,新兴经济体增速放缓将拖累新兴市场股市在第二季度走低.

今年第一季度摩根士丹利资本国际新兴市场指数(MSCIEmergingMarketsIndex)上涨14%,较标准普尔500指数涨幅高出近两个百分点,创1992年以来第一季度最佳表现.
该指数去年全年重挫20%,而同期标准普尔500指数为持平.

但从2月中旬开始,亚洲、拉美、东欧和非洲部分地区的股市开始走弱;摩根士丹利资本国际新兴市场指数下跌约1.
3%,同期标准普尔500指数上涨3.
9%.

MarketfieldAssetManagement董事长MichaelShaoul表示,新兴市场股市年初至今的回报率相当具有欺骗性,这其实是去年触及低点后的典型的熊市反弹走势.

大量资金在今年涌入新兴市场股票共同基金.
EPFRGlobal提供的数据显示,第一季度新兴市场股票基金共吸引资金256亿美元,是2006年以来净流入资金规模最高的一个季度.
相比之下,当季流入美国股票基金的资金规模只有17亿美元.

但投资者人气可能发生变化.
3月的最后一周资金流出新兴市场,是今年以来的首次.

许多投资者之所以被新兴市场股市吸引,是因为在全球市场上涨时,新兴市场股市的涨幅通常更大.
在2009年3月金融危机爆发后美国股市触底至2011年5月美国股市见顶这段时间中,Vanguard摩根士丹利资本国际新兴市场指数交易所交易基金(VanguardMSCIEmergingMarketsETF)和iSharesMSCIEmergingMarketsIndexFund的涨幅超过100%,而同期标准普尔500指数的涨幅超80%.
这两只EFT分别是全球市值排名第二和第三的股票ETF.

但在今年美国股市触及数年新高之际,新兴市场股市却仍未突破去年的高点.

巧合的是,出现这种情况时,中国、印度和巴西发布了一系列令人担忧的经济报告.

RBCDominionSecurities新兴市场研究部全球负责人NickChamie表示,新兴市场资产的市场表现与经济和增长情况存在高度相关.
新兴经济体公布的疲软数据将给新兴市场的资产带来压力.
Chamie上周建议客户对新兴市场资产进行战术性获利回吐.

上月初,中国宣布将2012年经济增速目标从8%调低至7.
5%.
两周后,必和必拓(BHPBilliton)一位管理人士称,中国的铁矿石需求正在放缓.
本月,中国公布的喜忧参半的制造业报告令市场继续担忧其增长前景.

其他重要新兴经济体的增长势头也在减弱.
上月,印度公布去年第四季度经济增长6.
1%,创逾两年来最低增速.
巴西3月份公布,该国经济2011年的增速不足3%,远低于2010年的7.
5%.

DearbornPartners驻芝加哥董事总经理PaulNolte表示,短期而言,新兴经济体的增长前景是一大担忧.
这些重要新兴经济体在全球经济中的影响力不容忽视.

当然,新兴经济体的增速依然远高于美国、欧洲和日本等发达经济体,部分策略师也看好发展中国家股市的长期表现.

WellsCapitalManagement首席投资长JimPaulsen称,虽然新兴市场的表现与十年前不好比,但仍有值得投资并持有的理由,比如这些国家正在进行大规模的基础设施建设,并且中产阶级规模正在迅速壮大.

HeckmanGlobalAdvisors国际股票部门的董事总经理VijayChopra指出,今年新兴市场经济体的平均增速预计仍将高于5%,而美国经济的预计增幅仅约2%,欧洲经济则预计将出现萎缩.
他表示,新兴经济体的增长预期仍相对较好,同时还存在长期增长前景.
去年新兴市场股市的走势很差,所以它们现在的估值相对便宜.

摩根斯坦利国际新兴市场指数的预估市盈率约为10.
4倍,标准普尔500指数的预估市盈率约为13.
2倍.

虽然策略师担心经济增长放缓将导致未来几个月新兴市场股市走势疲软,但也有一些策略师认为回调将是逢低买进的机会.

WaverlyAdvisors首席投资长AdamGrimes指出,最近几周新兴市场的表现落后于美国市场,但仍跟上了发达国家的总体表现.
他预计未来几周新兴市场可能出现短线买入时机,并将基于这些市场走强的预期而建立多头头寸.

Seeking'Second'LifeAfterFacebookIn2008,GideonYu,thenthechieffinancialofficerofFacebookInc.
,begansteeringsomeformeremployeeswhowantedtosellsharesinthesocialnetworktowardaspecificbuyer.
Thefirm,MillenniumTechnologyValuePartners,paidabout$10milliontoacquirestockfromaboutadozenformeremployeesofFacebook,accordingtopeoplefamiliarwiththematter.
Runbytwoalumniofprivate-equityfirmBlackstoneGroupLP,MillenniumwonMr.
Yu'sbackinginpartbyvowingnottomakepurchaseswithoutFacebook'sapproval,thepeoplesaid.
Millenniumisoneofahandfulofmanagersthatspecializeinwhathasbecomeknownassecondary-marketinvestinginsharesofyoungcompaniesthataren'tyettradedonmajorexchanges.
ThemedianageofcompaniesbackedbyventurecapitalattheirIPOhasrisentonineyearsin2010fromfouryearsin1999,accordingtotheNationalVentureCapitalAssociation.
Thatisinpartbecauseofinvestors'sourmemoriesofthe'techwreck'of2000-02whenvaluationscrateredafterthelate-1990sbubble.
Asthetimebetweencompanies'creationandtheirlistinghaslengthened,secondaryshareshavebecomeanewassetclassbetweenventure-capitalinvestinginstartupsandpublicmarkets,saysJasonJones,chiefexecutiveofHighStepCapital,whichalsoinvestsinpre-IPOstocks.
Whilehigh-profileexchangeslikeSecondMarketInc.
andSharesPostInc.
havebecomethefaceofsecondary-markettrading,dozensofinvestmentfundsandvehicleshavequietlyemergedtobuysuchstock.
'Privatecompanysecondaryfundsarethenewsmallcapfunds,'Mr.
Jonessays.
OtherswhosefundsareopentowealthyandinstitutionalinvestorsincludeSaintsCapital,IndustryVentures,andWCapitalPartners.
Thepayoffscanbeeye-catching.
The2006MilleniumfundthatboughttheFacebookshareshadannualnetreturnsof30%onaverage,accordingtooneinvestor.
ButasFacebook,theeight-year-olddarlingofpre-IPOinvestors,preparesforahigh-profilelistinginMay,themarketisatacrossroads.
OnceFacebookjoinsotherbig-namesocial-mediacompanieslikeGrouponInc.
andZyngaInc.
onthepublicmarkets,itisn'tclearthesecondarymarketcanretainenoughdepthandbreadthtodeliverlargereturnstoagrowingnumberofinvestors.
'Thishasbecomeaverypopularwaytoinvestandtheremaybetoomuchcapitalchasingthesetypesofinvestments,'saidMarcPaley,managingpartneratScuraPaley&Co.
,aninvestmentbankingboutiqueservingmiddle-marketcompanies.
Tobesure,thereremainseveralheavilytradedcompaniesonpre-IPOmarkets,includingsocial-mediamessagingserviceTwitterInc.
,discount-dealsserviceLivingSocialInc.
andflash-salewebsiteGiltGroupeInc.
Butglobalvolumesofprivate-companytradingareexpectedtodeclineby24%to$7.
1billionthisyearduetoFacebookandothermarketexits,accordingtoNyppexLLC,whichtracksandalsotradesinthemarket.
Themarketalsohasbeendoggedbyquestionsaboutlackofdisclosureandtransparency.
Lastmonth,theSecuritiesandExchangeCommissionchargedtwomanagersofinvestmentvehiclesformedtoholdFacebookshareswith'pocketingundisclosedfeesandcommissions.
'Oneofthemanagersisfightingthecharges;theothersettledthecasebypayingapenaltywithoutadmittingordenyingwrongdoing.
Atthesametime,recentregulatorychangescouldmakepre-IPOfundslessappealingforcompanies.
OnereasonfundssuchasMillenniumhavebeenabletogetstockisthatcompanieshavebeenrequiredbysecuritiesrulestodisclosefinancialinformationwhentheirshareholderbaseexceeds500.
ThatrulehasmotivatedcompanieslikeFacebooktochannelpre-IPOstocksalestosingle,largeinvestors,tokeeptheshareholderbasedown.
Lastweek,however,theshareholderthresholdwasincreasedto2,000underanewlawaimedatrelaxingsomesecuritiesrulesforsmallercompanies.
Millenniumexecutivessaythefutureremainsbright.
'Weseemanyreasonswhysecondarywillcontinuetogrowevenfurtherinthecomingyears,'saysSamSchwerin,theformerBlackstonebankerwhoownsandrunsMillennium.
Millennium,whichraiseda$284millionfundin2010,eventuallymadeinvestmentsinmorethan50privatecompaniesbeforeanIPOorsale,includingTwitter,onlinetextbookrentalserviceCheggInc.
,andapparelvendorZappos.
comInc.
,allwithmanagementsponsorshipsimilartoFacebook's.
'ClearlyFacebookdrovetheacceptanceofthemarket,'accountingforamajorityofrecenttradinginpre-IPOstocksonexchanges,saysChristopherYang,whospecializesintechnologyatGroveStreetAdvisorsLLC,aMillenniuminvestorthatadvisespensionfundsonventureinvesting.
Still,headds,'themarketpotentialcontinuestobequitelargeandisonlygrowing.
'Mr.
Schwerinthearchitectofthestrategyofseekingcompanies'approvalbeforebuyingshares,sayscompaniesstillwanttostayprivatelonger,thusforcingemployeesandotherinvestorswhowanttocashouttousethesecondarymarket.
Theassetclass'hasgonefromobscure,unlovedandsometimesunwelcomedadecadeago,towidelyacceptedandafundamentalpartoftheventurecapitalecosystemtoday,'hesays.
Millennium'sownevolutionunderlineshowsecondarymarketshavechanged.
Thecurrentfirmisthesuccessortothreetraditionalventurefundsformedduringthetechbubbleofthelate1990sbyformerBlackstonebankerDanielBursteinwithmoneyfromthefirm'sthen-chairmanPetePeterson.
Thefirsttwofundsof$4millionand$10millionscoredstratosphericreturnsof29andninetimestheirinvestments,respectively,investorssay.
ButwhenMr.
Bursteinraised$160millionfromoutsideinvestorsundertheMillenniumnamein2000,thenextfundfellflatasthebubblecollapsed,barelyekingoutaprofit.
Twoyearslater,MrSchwerinjoinedandhatchedtheideaofbuyingfromcompanies'employeesandotherinvestorswithmanagement'sblessing.
美二级市场股票交易来到十字路口2008年,时任FacebookInc.
首席财务长的GideonYu开始劝说部分想要出售Facebook股份的前员工将股份卖给一位特定的买家.

据知情人士透露,这家名为MillenniumTechnologyValuePartners的公司出资约1,000万美元从Facebook十几名前员工手中收购股份.
这位知情人士说,由曾在私募股权投资公司黑石集团(BlackstoneGroupLP)工作过的两人运营的Millennium公司所以赢得GideonYu的支持,部分原因是他们承诺未经Facebook批准不会进行股份收购.
Millennium是少数专门从事现在已经被外界所熟知的"二级市场投资"的机构之一.
所谓"二级市场投资"是指投资那些尚未在大型交易所挂牌交易的年轻企业的股份.

美国国家风险投资协会(NationalVentureCapitalAssociation)的数据显示,2010年,风险资本支持的企业进行首次公开募股(IPO)时,这些企业成立时间的中值已经从1999年的四年上升到九年.
导致这种现象的部分原因是上世纪90年代末期股市泡沫破裂后,投资者对估值大跌令很多科技股在2000至2002年变得一文不值的情况还有酸涩的回忆.

对冲基金HighStepCapital的首席执行长琼斯(JasonJones)说,随着公司从创立到上市的时间变长,二级市场股票(secondaryshares)已经成为介于投资初创企业的风险资本和公开市场股票之间的一种新的资产类别.
HighStepCapital也投资上市前的公司股票(pre-IPOstock).
随着SecondMarketInc.
和SharesPostInc.
等备受瞩目的经纪商成为二级市场交易的代表,数十家投资基金和投资平台已经悄悄买入二级市场股票.

琼斯说,未上市公司二级市场基金是一种新的小型股基金.
SaintsCapital、IndustryVentures和WCapitalPartners等公司也向富豪和机构投资者开放基金份额的申购.
此类基金的回报令人眼红.
据一位投资者透露,买入Facebook股份的那只Millenium基金的年均净回报率高达30%.

但就在成立已有八年且颇受pre-IPO投资者青睐的Facebook正为其今年5月进行备受瞩目的IPO做准备之际,二级市场却处于一个十字路口.
一旦Facebook像GrouponInc.
和ZyngaInc.
等知名社交媒体企业一样将自己的股票在公开市场挂牌上市,二级市场能否保留足够的深度和广度向数量不断增加的投资者提供大量回报就不得而知了.

一家服务中间市场公司的小型投行ScuraPaley&Co.
的执行合伙人佩利(MarcPaley)说,二级市场股票已经成为一种非常受欢迎的投资品,追逐此类投资的资本可能已经数量过多.

可以肯定的是,在pre-IPO市场上仍有数家交易量很大的公司,包括社交媒体信息服务提供商TwitterInc.
、专门提供打折优惠服务的LivingSocialInc.
以及闪购促销网站GiltGroupeInc.
.
数据追踪商NyppexLLC的资料显示,未上市公司股票的全球交易量今年预计将下滑24%,至71亿美元,原因是Facebook等公司退出了这一市场.
Nyppex的股票也在这一市场上交易.

这个市场饱受缺乏信息披露和透明度的质疑.
上个月,美国证券交易委员会(SecuritiesandExchangeCommission)指控专门用来持有Facebook股票的一些投资工具的两名经理人私自收取金额不明的费用和佣金.
其中一位经理人正就该指控做出抗辩,另一位则通过交付罚金了结了此案,他对自己被控存在的不当行为既没承认,也没否认.

同时,最近的监管改革可能会让pre-IPO基金对企业的吸引力减少.
Millennium这样的基金之所以能买到未上市公司的股票,其中一个原因是根据证券监管规定,如公司的股东基数超过500个,公司就需披露其财务状况.
这一规定促使Facebook这样的公司在上市前把股票卖给了单个大型投资者,目的就是压低股东基数.
不过根据一项旨在放宽对小公司证券监管的新法律,这一股东基数门槛上周已调高至2,000个.

Millennium的高管说,未来仍是光明的.
目前拥有并经营Millennium的前黑石集团高管施威林(SamSchwerin)说,我们认为有很多原因可保证二级市场在未来数年能进一步增长.

Millennium在2010年组建了一只规模达2.
84亿美元的基金,该公司在50多家未上市公司进行IPO或将本公司出售给他人前投资了这些公司,其中包括Twitter、在线课本租赁服务提供商CheggInc.
和服装零售商Zappos.
comInc.
等.
与Facebook的情况一样,所有这些投资都得到了上述公司管理层的支持.

Millennium的投资者GroveStreetAdvisorsLLC的科技股专家ChristopherYang说,很显然Facebook对于投资者接受二级市场起了很大作用.
他还说,尽管Facebook的股票将退出二级市场,但这一市场的潜力仍很大,它还处于增长阶段.

施威林是在购买相关未上市公司股票前寻求该公司同意这一策略的设计师.
他说,一些企业仍希望在较长时间内维持自己的私营状态,于是那些希望提现的员工和其他投资者就不得不来到二级市场上.
他说,二级市场股票这一资产类别已从10年前的模糊、不受人待见甚至令人生厌变为了如今的被普遍接受,它已成为当今风险资本生态环境的一个基本组成部分.

Millennium自身的发展演变就可凸显出二级市场的巨大改变.
这个公司的前身是上世纪90年代末科技股泡沫时期成立的三只传统风险基金,创始人是黑石集团前高管布尔斯坦恩(DanielBurstein),所用资金来自时任黑石董事长的彼得森(PetePeterson).
投资者说,前两只规模400万美元和1,000万美元的基金分别获得了29倍和9倍于自身投资的高额回报.
但是,当布尔斯坦恩以Millennium之名在2000年从外部投资者那里筹到1.
6亿美元时,这第三只基金却随着科技股泡沫的破裂而栽了跟头,几乎没有赚到什么钱.
两年后,施威林加盟Millennium,想出了在公司管理层支持下,从公司员工和其他投资者那里购买未上市公司股票的点子.

Fund(基金)Eurozoneministersagree500bninnewbailoutfundsDealconformstoGermanprescriptionsforaminimalistbailoutfund,butfallsshortofOECDcallsforthe'motherofallfirewalls'Europe's17singlecurrencygovernmentshaveagreedtodeliver500bn(418bn)inbailoutfundsinthehopeoferectingafirewallstrongenoughtocontainthesovereigndebtcrisis,placatethemarketsandencouragenon-eurozoneInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)memberstocommitasimilarsumtoemergencyreserves.
Buttheeurozonefinanceministers,meetinginCopenhagenamidcallstoerectthe"motherofallfirewalls",ditchedexplicitearlierproposalstokeepafurther240bninreserveforthenexttwoyears.
ThedealagreedconformedtoGermanprescriptionsforaminimalistbailout,arecipetheEuropeancommissiondescribedinadvanceasinadequatetothechallengesconfrontingtheeuro.
Ministersendeavouredtoimpressthebondmarkets,theAmericansandtheChinese,trumpetingtheagreementasworth"morethanatrilliondollars"inthehopethiswillpressthebigIMFdonorsintodoublingthemonetaryfund'sreservestoasimilarfigurenextmonth.
TheFrenchfinanceminister,FranoisBaroin,said:"WearenowinastrongpositionfordiscussionontheIMFinApril.
Itisagoodsignal.
"Astatementfromtheeurogroupsaid:"Altogether,theeuroareaismobilisinganoverallfirewallofapproximately800bn–morethan$1tn.
"Butthatfigureincluded100bninbilateralloanstoGreecefromEUcountriesin2010,aswellas200bntoIreland,PortugalandGreecefromthetemporaryeurozonebailoutfund,whichclosesnextyear,althoughthosethreeprogrammeswillruntheircourseuntil2015.
TheCopenhagensummitdegeneratedintoacrimonyandsomechaoswhenAustria'sfinanceminister,MariaFekter,upstagedeurozoneleadersbyannouncingthe800bnfirewallfirst.
Jean-ClaudeJuncker,theveteranLuxembourgprimeministerwhohasledtheeurogroupforeightyearsandwhosetermexpiresinJune,abruptlycancelledapressconferenceatwhichhewastounveilthenews.
ThenewmoneycomesintheformoftheEuropeanstabilitymechanism(ESM),thepermanenteurozonebailoutkitty,andembryonicEuropeanMonetaryFund,whichstartsinJuly.
TheESM'slaunchhasalreadybeenbroughtforward,andministersagreedtospeeduptheprocessofpayingincapitaltogetthefundfullyoperationalwithintwoyears.
Itslendingcapacitywascappedat500bn,ashaslongbeenplanned.
"Asofmid-2013,themaximumlendingvolumeofESMwillbe500bn.
ThecombinedlendingceilingoftheESMandtheEFSF[Europeanfinancialstabilityfacility]willcontinuetobesetat700bn,"thestatementsaidinreferencetothethreeongoingbailoutsfromthetemporaryfund.
Thatfundtotalled440bn,leaving240bnstillavailable.
AdraftstatementonThursdaysaidthespare240bnwouldbeheldinreserveforemergencyuse,butthatclausewasdroppedyesterday.
Thepermanentfund'slendingcapacityhingeson80bnbeingpaidinfiveinstalmentsuntil2014toretainatriple-Acreditrating,meaningthatitcouldbetwoyearsbeforethefundisoperatingfullyasforeseen.
Buttheparalleloperationofthecurrenttemporaryandthefuturepermanentfundswillensurealendingcapacityof500bn,theministerssaid.
WolfgangSchuble,Germany'spowerfulfinanceminister,istippedtosucceedJunckerinapostthatthesovereigndebtcrisishasturnedintooneofthemostcrucialintheEU.
Butintensewranglingoverhowtodivvyupaquartetofseniorfinancialjobsmeantthosedecisionswerepostponed.
Friday'sagreementrepresentedyetanotherwininthelong-runningeurosagaforBerlinindictatingthetermsoftheeurozone'sresponsetothecrisis.
Franceandothershadarguedforatrillion-eurofirewall.
Germanyinsistedthepermanentfundshouldnotexceed500bnandonMondayconcededthe200bnofcurrentbailoutscouldrunconcurrently.
"Theeuroareamadesubstantialprogressoverthepast18monthstoaddressthechallengesstemmingfromthesovereigndebtcrisis,"theministersdeclared.
"Importantimprovementsweremadetoimprovethegovernanceoftheeuroarea…robustfirewallshavebeenestablished.
Thiscomprehensivestrategyhaspaidoff.
"欧元区国家财长再增5000亿元稳定基金最终结果符合德国提出的最低额度稳定基金方案,但是和经济合作与发展组织要求的"防火墙之母"还有差距.

欧洲17个实施单一货币的政府同意新增5000亿欧元(4180亿英镑)稳定基金借此建起一道强大的防火墙,从而遏制主权债务危机的蔓延、平息市场、鼓励非欧元区国际货币基金组织的成员拿出同样数量的应急储备.

在建立"防火墙之母"的呼声中,欧元区的财政部长们在哥本哈根召开会议,同意放弃在未来两年内预留2400亿欧元的作为应急储备的方案.

最终结果符合德国提出的最小限度稳定基金的方案.
早些时候,欧洲委员会断定这个疗法不足以应对欧元目前面临的困难.

财长们尽力让债券市场、美国、中国保持信心,声称他们的目前达成的一致价值"超过1万亿元",因为这有望推动国际货币基金组织的大股东们下个月增加一倍的货币基金存储,从而达到1万亿欧元.

法国财长弗朗索瓦·巴鲁安说:"现在我们在4月的国际货币基金组织讨论中处于有利地位,这是一个好的信号.
"欧洲集团的一份声明称:"欧元区正在动员一个总额8000亿欧元的防火墙计划-超过1万亿.
"但是这个数字包括了欧盟国家2010年向希腊提供的双边贷款,以及欧元区暂时稳定基金向冰岛、葡萄牙和希腊提供的2000亿贷款.
这3笔款运行到2015年,但是暂时稳定基金明年是最后一年.

当奥地利财长突然宣布8000亿欧元计划,哥本哈根高峰会议一下子变得一团糟,与会者言辞激烈.
经验丰富的卢森堡公国的首相让克洛德·容克已经执掌欧元集团8年,今年6月就要到期,在宣布这个新闻之前出人意料的取消了新闻发布会.

这笔新增货币将以欧洲稳定机制的形式出现.
欧洲稳定机制将作为欧元区紧急援助基金的一种永久性机制,作为7月开始运作的欧洲货币基金组织的雏形.
已经有人提出要启动欧洲稳定机制,财政们也同意加速向欧洲货币基金组织注资,促使该组织在2年内全面运行.

该组织一直计划最大贷款额度为5000亿欧元.
"2013年年中的时候欧洲稳定机制的最大借款额度为5000亿欧元,加上欧洲金融稳定机制,整个借款能力的上限将持续达到7000亿.
"这种说法参照了目前还在使用的3笔暂时基金款项.

暂时基金总额4400亿,现在还有2400亿预留.
周四的时候曾经说过,这240亿欧元将预留应对紧急情况,但是昨天这些说法不见了.

为保持3A的信用等级,永久性基金的借款能力保持在800亿欧元,分5年分期贷款,延续到2014年.
这就是说这要比原定的全面运行提前两年.
财长们说,目前暂时的和未来永久的基金,将保证借款能力达到5000亿欧元.

德国强势的财政部长朔伊布勒将作为容克的继任者,而此时此刻,主权债务危机已经关乎欧盟生死存亡.
但是对四分之一高级职位的激烈争吵,将让这那些应对危机的决定向后拖延.

长期以来,德国一直在应对危机中居于住到地位,周五的协议再次印证了这个不变的传奇.
法国和其他国家曾经讨论过1万亿欧元的防火墙计划,但是德国坚持永久性基金不能超过5000亿欧元,周一的时候勉强同意现行的2000亿欧元紧急援助基金继续运行.

财长们说:"在过去18个月中,欧元区在应对主权债务危机的挑战中取得了实质性进展,欧元区的管理得到了重要改观,建立了强劲的防火墙,这一全面性战略已经取得阶段性胜利.
"ShouldprivateequityloweritshurdlesPrivateequityinvestorshavekepttheirpreferredreturnsartificiallyhigh.
DuringaspeechinBerlinlastmonth,TPGCapitalco-founderJimCoulterspentalotoftimediscussingthefutureofprivateequityfundstructures.
Mostofitwasinrelationtogeneralpartnerconcessions,particularlyinlightoftheILPAguidelines.
Butthenhebroughtuptheissueofhurdlerates,andsuggestedthatlimitedpartnersactuallyaregettinganinappropriatelysweetdeal.
Fortheuninitiated,hurdleratesarethepercentagereturnthatafundmustgenerateforinvestorsbeforefundmanagersgettobeginsharingintheprofits(i.
e.
,carriedinterest).
Coultersaidthattheywereoriginallystructuredtomirror10-yearU.
S.
Treasuries--thebroadly-acceptedbaselineforrisklessinvestment.
That'swhyhurdlesweretypicallyputatbetween7%and8%,whichiswhereTreasurieswerepricedduringmostofthelate1980sandearly1990s(whenthePEbusinesswasreallybecominginstitutionalized).
ButTreasuriesfellbelow6%in1998,andhaven'tlookedbacksince.
Hurdlerates,ontheotherhand,havemostlyremainedstable.
Tobesure,thereareexceptions.
Firmswithstrongtrackrecordsoftenproposelowerhurdlerates(becausetheycan),whilefirmswithtougherfundraisingslogsoftenproposehigherhurdlesrates(becausetheyhaveto).
Buttheoriginalrationaleseemstohavebeenlost.
CoulterdidnotsuggestthatTPGplannedtotakeupthisparticularmantleforitsownfundraisingefforts,nordidhethink2%-3%hurdlerateswouldeverbecomethenewnormal.
ButinatimewhensomuchattentionisfocusedonGP/LPalignment,IfeltitwasworthnotingthatnoteverythingoverthepastdecadehasshiftedintheGP'sdirection…私募股权基金应降低最低回报率吗私募投资者将优先回报率人为地定得很高.
二月份,美国私募股权基金公司德州太平洋资本(TPGCapital)的共同创始人吉姆库尔特在柏林演讲时花了大量篇幅探讨了私募股权基金架构的未来,主要谈到了一般合伙人作为基金管理者的让步,特别是从机构有限合伙人协会(ILPA)发布的指引来看.
但接着,他提出了最低回报率问题,认为作为投资者的有限合伙人事实上占尽了便宜.

为了照顾那些不太了解私募股权基金的人们,这里有必要解释一下.
所谓"最低回报率"就是一支基金承诺为投资者带来的回报率,只有在实现最低回报率后,基金管理人才能开始分享利润(即资本增值提成).

库尔特表示,最低回报率最初的设计是基于10年期美国国债这一普遍接受的无风险投资基准,因此,最低回报率过去往往设定在7-8%之间,20世纪80年代末、90年代初大多数时候美国国债的收益率都处于这样的水平(当时也是私募股权基金真正开始兴起的时候).
但1998年美国国债收益率跌破了6%,而且此后再也没有回头.
但另一方面,私募股权基金的最低回报率却基本保持了稳定.

当然,也有例外.
历史业绩不错的一些公司往往会给出较低的最低回报率(因为他们有资本这样做),募资困难的公司就会给出较高的最低回报率(因为他们必须这样做).
但最初的逻辑依据似乎已经丧失.

库尔特没有说德州太平洋资本未来融资将采取这样的做法,也没有说2-3%的最低回报率将成为新的常态.
但当前市场这么关注一般合伙人与有限合伙人的关系,我觉得在这个时候有必要指出的是,过去十年来并不是所有事情都向着对一般合伙人有利的方向转变……IPOscloseoutbannerquarterBestfirstquarterinyears,withFacebookaroundthecorner.
It'stimetothrowanothershovelfulofdirtonthenotionofan"IPOcrisis"foremergingcompanies.
20venturecapital-backedcompanieswentpubliconU.
S.
exchangesduringthefirstquarter,whichisthehighestQ1numberofsuchissuerssincethebeginningof2000.
Theyraisedaround$1.
63billion,whichisthehighestfirst-quartertallysinceQ12007.
Thecombinedpost-offeringvaluewasapproximately$9.
5billion.
Thequarter'slargestVC-backedIPOwasforExactTarget(ET),anIndianapolis-basedmakerofemailmarketingsoftware,whichlastweekraised$161.
5millionbypricing8.
5millioncommonsharesat$19apiece(itopenedtradingtodayat$26.
49).
ItwasfollowedbyMillennialMedia(MM),aBaltimore-basedmobileadvertisingplatformthatonWednesdaynightraised$133millionbypricing10.
2millionsharesat$13pershare(itopenedtodayat$25.
58).
Mostofthequarter'sIPOswereforinformationtechnologycompanies,buttherealsowereseverallifesciencesandcleantechcompaniesinthemix.
Thelargestofthenon-ITbunchwasCambridge,Mass.
-basedoncologydrugcompanyMerrimackPharmaceuticals(MACK),whichraised$100millionearlierthisweek.
Theonlyrealnegativeforthequarterwasthatitdidn'tfeatureablockbusterIPO,likeLinkedIn(LNKD),Groupon(GRPN)orZynga(ZNGA).
ExpectthattoberectifiedinQ2,whenFacebookhitsthepublicmarkets.
Wealsocouldbegintoseeaslewofnewissuancefromsmall-capcompanies,thankstorecentJOBSActlegislation.
美国IPO市场一季度完美收官2012年一季度是美国IPO市场几年来最好的一季度,上市公司数量、融资总额等各项指标均创下新高,唯一的遗憾是没有出现重磅的上市活动,但是Facebook上市在即,这种局面也将得到改观.

新兴公司"IPO危机"的说法可以休矣.
2012年第一季度,有20家由风险投资支持的公司在美国股市上市,创下2000年以来此类公司同期IPO新高.
这些公司共筹集约16.
3亿美元资本,也是2007年一季度以来的同期新高.
上市后总市值约95亿美元.

一季度由风投支持的最大IPO是ExactTarget,这家位于印第安纳波利斯的电邮营销软件公司上周筹集了1.
615亿美元,发行850万股普通股,每股定价19美元(该股3月30日开盘价为26.
49美元).
其次为MillennialMedia,这家位于巴尔的摩的移动广告平台服务商在3月28日夜间筹集了1.
33亿美元,发行1,020万股,每股定价13美元(该股3月30日开盘价为25.
58美元).

一季度大部分IPO公司都是IT公司,但也有几家生命科学和清洁科技公司.
最大的非IT公司是总部位于马萨诸塞州剑桥的肿瘤药公司MerrimackPharmaceuticals,该公司本周早些时候筹集了1亿美元.
第一季度唯一遗憾的是没有一场像LinkedIn、Groupon或Zynga这样的重磅IPO.
第二季度随着Facebook上市,这种状况预计将得到改变.
另外,由于最近通过的JumpstartOurBusinessStartupsAct法案,我们还将开始看到一系列小盘股发行.
Bond(债券)TepidSaleAddstoSpain'sWoesAweakauctionofSpanishgovernmentbondsWednesdaypointedtoacriticalproblemforEurope'sfinanciallystressedgovernments:WhowillbuytheirdebtSpainsoldatotalof2.
59billion($3.
43billion)inbondswithmaturitiesbetween2015and2020,nearthebottomofitstargetvolume,andithadtopayhigheryieldsthaninpriorauctionstoenticeinvestorstotakethem.
ThatresultsentyieldsclimbinginItalyaswell,andpushedstockmarketsdownacrosstheregion.
Byearlyafternoon,yieldsontheSpanish10-yearbondwereat5.
66%;theyhadendedTuesdayat5.
45%,accordingtoTradeweb.
ThecomparableItalianbondwasat5.
31%,upfrom5.
15%.
ThepotentialimplicationsofthetepidSpanishsalearebroad:Spanishbanksthisyearhavegobbledupthegovernment'sdebt,maskingadearthofforeignbuyers.
Aslowdowninpurchasesbythelocalbankscouldportendtrouble.
Theauctionisalsoafirstverdictonthenewgovernment'sjust-announcedbudgetplan,whichcallsforseverespendingcutsandtaxincreasestotrimapersistentdeficit.
Manyeconomistshavewarnedthatsuchausterity—Europeanpolicymakers'favoredweaponagainstthedebtcrisis—couldplungewobblyeconomiesintodeepcontraction.
Spainisstrugglingwith23%unemployment.
Thegovernmentforecaststheeconomywillshrink1.
7%thisyear.
ItalsoovershadowedarelativelygoodauctionWednesdayof1.
5billioninPortuguesetreasurybills,withmaturitiesbetweensixand18months—thelongest-datedpaperthatPortugalhassoldsinceacceptingabailoutlastyear.
Portugal'smedium-andlong-termyieldsrose,albeitinthintrading.
EuropeisskatingintoanextendedEasterbreak.
Thursday,FridayandMondayarepublicholidaysinSpain,whichlikelytemperedinterest.
ManyothermarketsareclosedonFridayandMonday.
Still,theauctionrepresentedastarkturnaroundfromearlierintheyear,whenSpainattractedheavydemandforitsbondsandrespondedbysellingthembythebarrelfultoSpanishbanks.
Now,demandfromSpanishbanksis"muchlowerthaninJanuaryandFebruary,"saidLaurentFransoletofBarclaysCapitalinLondon.
Itwasn'tlikely,hesays,thatlocalbankscouldhave"continuedtobuy20billion[euros]ofbondsamonth.
"ForeigninvestorsmayalsobeskepticalofSpain'sfiscalplans.
"Therearealotofquestionmarksaboutthebankingsystemandthebudget,"hesaid.
Thankstoitsearlysales,Spainhasalreadycompletednearlyhalfofitsplannedissuancefortheyear.
ButWednesday'sresultssuggestthatkeendemandhassignificantlydulled.
AbondmaturinginJanuary2015attracted2.
8billioninbids,2.
41timestheamountSpainultimatelysold,withanaverageyieldof2.
89%.
Thatsamebond,atanauctionjustthreeweeksago,attractednearlyfiveeurosinbidsforeveryeurosold,andSpainpaidayieldof2.
44%.
Spanishbankshavebeenhugebuyersofgovernmentdebtinrecentmonths,thanksinlargeparttoafloodofcheap,three-yearmoneydoledoutbytheEuropeanCentralBankattheendof2011andagaininFebruary.
ThatmadeborrowingfromtheECB,andturningaroundandlendingtotheSpanishgovernment,anenticingplayformanydomesticbanks.
TheirholdingsofSpanishdebthasconsequentlysoared.
AsofFebruary,Spanishbanksheld142billion,or25%,ofso-calledunstrippedgovernmentdebt—thatis,securitieswhoseinterestandprincipalpaymentshaven'tbeensplitintoseparateinstruments—accordingtodatafromtheSpanishtreasury.
Thatwasupfrom119billioninJanuaryand94billioninDecember.
Inthemid-2000s,theSpanishbanks'holdingsweretypicallyaround6%ofthetotal.
Atthesametime,foreignholdingsofthatdebttumbledfrom281billioninDecemberto245billioninFebruary.
西班牙国债拍卖结果凸显欧债乏人问津困境周三西班牙国债拍卖结果疲软凸现出欧元区外围国家面临的一个重要难题:谁会买这些受困国家的债券西班牙周三发售了总共25.
9亿欧元、2015年至2020年到期的国债,规模接近目标区间的低端.
为了吸引投资者,西班牙还给出了比之前拍卖更高的收益率.
受此影响,意大利国债收益率也上涨,并导致该地区股市普遍走低.

Tradeweb的数据显示,周三后市前段,西班牙10年期国债收益率报5.
66%,高于周二交易时段结束时的5.
45%.
意大利10年期国债收益率报5.
31%.

不温不火的西班牙国债拍卖结果具有多方面的潜在寓意.
西班牙银行业年初曾大量购买国债,掩盖了西班牙国债缺乏外国投资者问津的事实,而眼下本地银行购买力度减弱可能导致问题最终暴露.

此次拍卖也是对西班牙政府刚刚公布的新预算案的首个重要评判,新预算案要求大力削减开支并增加税收以克服顽固的赤字问题.
许多经济学家警告,这样的紧缩措施或导致原本就不稳定的经济走向严重萎缩.
西班牙的失业率现居高不下.

西班牙国债拍卖结果也使周三葡萄牙国债拍卖相对较好的表现打了折扣.
葡萄牙周三发行了期限6个月至18个月的国债,是该国自去年接受救助以来发行的期限最长的债券.
在清淡的交投背景下,葡萄牙中长期国债收益率上升.

欧洲即将迎来复活节假期,周四、周五和下周一均为西班牙的公共假日,这可能也是投资者对西班牙国债购买意向不强烈的一个原因.

不过,拍卖结果的确表明市场形势较今年早些时候发生了明显逆转,当时西班牙国债需求十分旺盛,大量国债被西班牙本地银行购得.

BarclayCapital驻伦敦的LaurentFransolet表示,眼下西班牙银行业对国债的需求远远低于1、2月份;本地银行不可能再维持一个月200亿欧元国债的购买规模.

海外投资者对西班牙的财政计划可能也心存疑虑,他们心中或许对西班牙银行系统及预算案存有大量问号.

得益于早先国债的发行,西班牙今年的发行计划已完成近半.
但周三的拍卖结果表明,投资者对国债的需求已大大降温.
2015年1月到期的西班牙国债吸引了28亿欧元的认购资金,是最终发行规模的2.
41倍,平均中标收益率为2.
89%.

而三周前同期限债券拍卖时,投标倍数近五倍,中标收益率为2.
44%.
西班牙银行业是近月来西班牙国债的大买家,这在一定程度上要归因于2011年底以及今年2月份欧洲央行(EuropeanCentralBank)向市场供应了大量3年期低息贷款.
向欧洲央行申请贷款,再把拿到的钱借给西班牙政府,这已经成为对西班牙许多本地银行极有诱惑力的一项操作.
因此,西班牙银行业持有的西班牙债务也顺势飙升.

截至2月份,西班牙银行业持有1,420欧元的未分割政府债券(利息和本金尚未进行分割),高于1月份时的1,190亿欧元以及去年12月份时的940亿欧元.

而海外投资者2月份时持有的这类债券规模从去年12月份时的2,810亿欧元降至2,450亿欧元.

BlackRock'sStreetShortcutBlackRockInc.
isplanningtolaunchatradingplatformthisyearthatwouldlettheworld'slargestmoneymanageranditspeersbypassWallStreetandtradebondsdirectlywithoneanother.
Theelectronictradinghubhasthepotentialtoreducealucrativerevenuestreamforinvestmentbanksatatimewhentheirbusinessesarebeingsqueezedbylacklustermarketsandnewregulationsputinplacetocurbriskintheaftermathofthefinancialcrisis.
ThetradingplatformwouldberunbytheNewYork-basedcompany'sBlackRockSolutionsarmandoffer46clientsincludingsovereign-wealthfunds,insurancecompaniesandothermoneymanagerstheabilitytotradeincorporatebonds,mortgagesecuritiesandotherassets,companyexecutivessay.
Undertheplan,theplatformwouldseektomatchbuyersandsellersofthesamesecurities,inaprocessknownas'crossingtrades.
'BlackRockSolutionswouldchargeasmallfeefortheservicethatwouldbemuchlowerthanWallStreet'stradingcommissions.
SomeofthetransactionswouldeffectivelycutouttheWallStreetdealersthathavelongactedasmiddlemeninthecreditmarkets.
BlackRock'sassetbusiness,whichoversees$3.
5trillion,wouldalsousetheplatform.
BlackRockexecutivescontendthattheplatformisaimedatloweringcostsandpluggingagapinWallStreet'sdiminishedabilitytoprovidemarketliquidity,notatcompetingwithinvestmentbanks.
'It'snotgoingtocannibalizeWallStreet,'RichardPrager,aBlackRockmanagingdirectorandheadofglobaltrading,saidinaninterview.
'Ifthere'sasavingsavailabletoclients,wewanttogiveittothem.
'BlackRockChiefExecutiveLaurenceD.
FinkhaslongbeenavocalcriticofthewayWallStreetbankscollectalarge'spread,'orpricegap,betweenabond'spurchaseandsellingprice,andhassoughttoreducecostsforclientsofhisfirm.
TheplansbyBlackRockunderlinethestructuralchangestakingplaceintheplumbingoffinancialmarketsasnewregulationsaimedatcurbingbankriskandtighterfundingmarketsreduceWallStreet'sabilityandresourcestoprovidetradingservicestoinvestors.
Thetradinginventoriesofcorporateandmortgagebondsheldbylargedealers,mostlyWallStreetbanks,havedeclinedover70%since2007,whichmarkedthebeginningofthecreditcrunchthatprecededthefinancialcrisis.
Overthissameperiod,corporate-bondissuancehasgrownandtheamountofassetsheldbytheinvestmentcommunityhasrisensignificantly.
BlackRockrepresentativeshavebeguntoapproachmoneymanagersaboutsigningontotheplatformandhaveformedanadvisorygroupofsixtoeightoftheirBlackRockSolutionsclientstoworkontheinitiative,whichistentativelycalled'AladdinTradingNetwork,'afterthefirm'sAladdininvestment-managementsystem.
Severaloftheclientsintheadvisorygroupalsohaveagreedtosignontothenewplatform,accordingtothecompany.
ThefirmalsohasbeenintalkswithWallStreetdealers,whichmayprovidepricequotestothesystem.
Thebanksalsocouldbecalledupontorespondtoordersthatcan'tbematcheddirectlybetweeninvestmentfirms.
BlackRockisseekingapprovalfromtheSecuritiesandExchangeCommissiontolaunchtheplatform.
Thecompanyrecentlycompletedatesttradeonthenewplatformandexpectstolaunchitbyyear'send.
AnSECspokesmandeclinedtocomment.
AcrossWallStreet,BlackRock'splanisseenbyinvestmentbankersascontroversialbecauseofitspotentialtoreducedealers'bond-tradingrevenues.
ButBlackRock'ssheersizemakesitoneofWallStreet'sbiggestcustomers,makingithardtoignore.
Thefundsitmanagesdoleoutbillionsofdollarsintradingcommissionsandfeestodealerseachyear,andBlackRockwilllikelycontinuetosendalotofbusinesstoWallStreetevenifthefirmdoessometradesonitsownplatform.
Somebankers,however,areskepticalthatBlackRock'snewtradingplatformcanattractsignificantactivitybecausetherearethousandsofdifferentbondsandthelikelihoodthatfirmswillwanttotradethesamebondsatthesametimemayberelativelylow.
AbondissuerlikeGeneralElectricCo.
,GE+1.
44%forexample,hasdozensofdifferentdebtsecurities.
BlackRockalsomayfaceanuphillbattlepersuadingclientstosupporttheinitiative,becausemostmoneymanagersaren'taccustomedtopostingtheirbidsandoffersforotherstosee.
BlackRockisalreadytryingtoenhanceitsownabilitytocrossstocks,bondsandothertradesamongthe10,000portfoliosofmutualfunds,hedgefundsandseparateaccountsitmanages.
Inlate2010itsteppedupeffortstoletitsfundstradestocksandbondsdirectlywitheachother.
AkeygoalwastosaveontradingcommissionsandfeesthatwouldotherwisegotobrokeragesandWallStreetfirms.
ThemoneymanageralsorecentlysetupatradingdeskinPrinceton,N.
J.
,tohandlesmallbondtradingordersfortheaccountsitmanages.
Bondordersof$2millionorlessnowaremovedovertothedesk,wheretheyaretradedonvariouselectronicplatforms.
Thecompanyhopestodoublethenumberofstock,bond,foreignexchangeandothertradesitcrossesinternallyto6%to8%ofitstradingvolumefromabout3%currently.
贝莱德拟出新平台绕过券商直接交易贝莱德(BlackRockInc.
)计划今年推出一个交易平台,该平台将使这家全球最大的资产管理公司及同行绕过华尔街而相互直接交易债券.

在眼下投行业务面临着市场低迷和为控制后金融危机时期风险而出台的新规的挤压之际,该电子交易平台有可能减少投行一个巨大的收入来源.

贝莱德高管说,该交易平台将由这家纽约公司旗下的BlackRockSolutions部门运营,将使其46家客户能够交易公司债券、抵押贷款证券和其他资产.
其客户包括主权财富基金、保险公司和其他资产管理公司.

根据计划,该交易平台将力求把交易同一证券的买家和卖家进行匹配,这个过程即所谓的"交叉盘交易".
BlackRockSolutions将对这项服务收取少量费用,费用将远远低于华尔街公司的交易佣金.

其中一些交易实际上将绕过一直以来作为信贷市场中间人的华尔街券商.
贝莱德的资产业务管理着3.
5万亿美元,该业务也将使用这一平台.

贝莱德高管承认,该交易平台旨在降低成本,弥补华尔街提供市场流动性的能力减弱所造成的缺口,而不是为了与投行竞争.

贝莱德董事总经理、全球交易业务主管普拉格(RichardPrager)在接受采访时说,这不会吃掉华尔街;如果客户有可以省钱的机会,我们希望向他们提供这种机会.

贝莱德首席执行长芬克(LaurenceD.
Fink)历来直言不讳地批评华尔街银行在债券买进价和卖出价之间收取高额价差的做法,并一直寻求为自己公司的客户降低成本.

贝莱德的计划凸显出,随着旨在控制银行风险的新规和收紧的融资市场削弱了华尔街向投资者提供交易服务的能力和资源,金融市场正在发生结构性转变.

自2007年以来,大型券商(多为华尔街银行)持有的公司债券和抵押贷款债券的交易存量下滑了70%以上.
2007年标志着信贷紧缩的开始,随后就发生了金融危机.
在同一时期,公司债券发行一直在增长,投资业持有的资产额大幅增加.

贝莱德的业务代表已经开始接触基金经理,与他们讨论平台的注册事宜,此外,贝莱德还组建了由六到八名BlackRockSolutions客户组成的顾问团队,以完善该项目.
该计划暂时被命名为"阿拉丁交易网络"(AladdinTradingNetwork),与公司阿拉丁投资管理系统一致.
贝莱德说,顾问团队中的几个客户也已经同意注册使用这一新的平台.

公司还与可能为该系统提供报价的华尔街交易人员进行了交谈.
当投资公司的订单无法直接匹配时,还可以让银行对这些订单进行处理.

贝莱德正在试图让美国证券交易委员会(SecuritiesandExchangeCommission,简称:SEC)批准发布这一平台.
公司最近在新平台上完成了测试交易,预计在年底前发布.
SEC发言人对此事不予置评.

在华尔街,贝莱德的计划在投资银行家中引发了争议,因为该计划有可能让证券经纪人从债券交易中获得的收入减少.

但是贝莱德凭借规模已经是华尔街最大的客户之一,因此它很难被忽视.
贝莱德管理的基金每年为证券经纪人提供数十亿美元的交易佣金和费用,而且,即使贝莱德在自己的平台上进行一些交易,它也很可能继续将大量业务交给华尔街.

不过,一些银行家怀疑,贝莱德新的交易平台不会吸引很多交易,因为债券的种类高达数千种,而公司在同一时间想交易相同债券的可能性相对来说较低.
例如,像通用电气(GeneralElectricCo.
)这样的债券发行者就有数十种不同的债券.
为说服客户支持这一计划,贝莱德可能也要打一场攻坚战,因为多数基金经理还不习惯向他人公布自己的出价和索价.

贝莱德已经开始加强在其管理的1万个共同基金、对冲基金和独立账户的投资组合中交叉匹配股票、证券和其他交易的能力.
2010年年末,贝莱德加大了努力,让其基金相互之间直接进行股票和证券交易.
贝莱德的一个重要目标是减少支付给经纪商和华尔街公司的交易佣金和费用.

这家资产管理公司最近还在新泽西州的普林斯顿设立了交易柜台,为其管理的账户处理小规模债券交易订单.
规模在200万美元及以下的债券订单现在被转移到这个柜台进行处理,这些债券在不同的电子平台上进行交易.

公司希望使其内部交叉进行的股票、证券、外汇和其他交易加倍,达到其交易总额的6%到8%.
目前这一比例大约为3%.

PrivateDebtWillLikelyWeighonGrowthforYearsPublicdebthasreceivedmostofthespotlightsincetheEuropeandebtcrisisflaredupmorethantwoyearsago.
Butprivate-sectordebtisarguablyamoreintractableproblem,andgovernments,particularlyintheeurozone,appearunlikelytoembraceboldpoliciesthatwouldeaseitsburdenontheEuropeaneconomy.
Theoriginoftheprivate-debtproblemismortgages:Real-estatepricessoaredinanumberofEuropeancountries,andbankswerewillingtolendever-largersumsforhomepurchases.
Thereal-estateboomhassincehittherocksthroughoutmuchofEurope,butmortgagedebtenduresasanalbatrosshangingaroundthenecksofEuropeanconsumers.
Economistshavefoundastronglinkbetweenconsumption,creditboomsandfallingreal-estateprices:Countriesthatexperiencedasharpriseinhouseholddebtwillexperienceasharperfallinconsumptionafterahousingbustthannationswheredebthasn'trisenasfast.
Ifyouborrowedalotofmoneytobuyyourhouse(andthelanditrestson),andthenpricesfallsoonafterwards,youaremorelikelytowanttorepaythedebtthangoouttodinner,buyanewcarorrenovateyourhouse.
Thosedecisions,multipliedthroughouttheeconomy,aredraggingonEuropeannations,suchastheNetherlands,DenmarkandtheU.
K.
,thatlivedthroughacreditboom.
"Housingbustsandrecessionsprecededbylargerrun-upsinhouseholddebttendtobemoresevereandprotracted,"theInternationalMonetaryFundsaidinareportthisyear.
EvidenceofthiseffectisclearinEurope.
IntheNetherlandsandDenmark,wheredebtlevelsrosesharplybeforethecrisis,householdconsumptionhasfallen3.
3%and3%respectivelysince2008.
IntheU.
K.
,afteradecadeofsharplyrisinghouseholddebt,consumptionhasfallen3.
5%.
Germanhouseholds,whichactuallysawtheirdebtrelativetodisposableincomefalloverthepreviousdecade,consumed2.
4%morelastyearthantheydidin2008.
WhatcantheEuropeanUniondoTheblochasspentcountlesshourscomingupwithwaystopreventhousingbubblesandcreditboomsfromspirallingoutofcontrol.
Thereisanewmacroeconomic"scoreboard"withindicatorsshowingthatacountry'seconomicsituationmightnotbesustainableandpenaltiesforeuro-zonecountriesthatdon'tacttofixthesituation.
Butallthesepoliciesaregearedtowardprevention,aworthygoalbutoneoflittleusetocountriesflounderingintheaftermathofacreditboomandhousingbust.
Andunfortunately,theEU'seconomicruleswillmakeitverydifficulttoshrugofftheburdenofhouseholddebtaccumulatedoverthepreviousdecade.
Fiscalpolicycannormallyhelp.
IthasintheU.
S.
,wherespendingbythegovernmenthashelpedtheprivate-sectordeleverage.
ButtheEU'sfiscalrulesareforcingallgovernmentstocuttheirdeficitstobelowtheEU'slimitof3%ofgrossdomesticproduct.
Norismonetarypolicylikelytocometotherescue.
Interestratesthroughoutthedevelopedworldarealreadylow,andintheeurozonetheEuropeanCentralBankappearsunlikelytoembarkonasustainedprogramofunconventionalmonetaryeasing.
"Iamafraidwehavechosen,inaverymasochisticway,themostpainfulpath,whereeverybodybleeds,"saidPaulDeGrauwe,professorofeconomicsattheCatholicUniversityofLeuveninBelgium.
Finally,aboldprogramofdebtforgivenesscanmakeadifference,theIMFsaidinitsreport.
DuringtheGreatDepression,forexample,theU.
S.
HomeOwners'LoanCorporationboughtaboutonemilliondistressedmortgagesfrombanksandrenegotiatedsoftertermsforborrowers,helpingeasetheconsumptionsqueezefacinghouseholdsstrugglingwithlargedebts.
Europeanofficials,however,areunlikelytopursueaprogramlikethisforanumberofreasons.
Thebiggestobstacleisthepoliticalproblemassociatedwith,say,SpanishhouseholdstellingtheirGermancreditorsthattheirdebtswon'tberepaid.
"There'salsonobodytoforcethattohappen,"Mr.
DeGrauwesaid.
"Youreallyneedafederalgovernment,andwedon'thavethatattheEuropeanlevel.
"Withnopolicysolutionsonthehorizon,highlyindebtedEuropeanconsumerscouldbefacingalongperiodofslow,growth-stuntingdeleveraging.
欧洲经济增长难以摆脱私人债务重压自两年多前欧洲债务危机爆发以来,公共债务问题就成为最受瞩目的焦点.
但可以说,私人债务是一个更为棘手的问题,而各国政府,特别是欧元区国家政府似乎不大可能采取大胆举措来减轻私人债务给欧洲经济带来的负担.

私人债务问题起源于抵押贷款:当初不少欧洲国家房地产价格飙升,银行也增加了对购房者的贷款投放.
之后,欧洲很多地区的房地产泡沫破裂,但抵押贷款债务并未消失,成为欧洲消费者的沉重负担.

经济学家发现,消费、信贷扩张以及房地产价格下滑之间存在紧密联系.
房地产泡沫破裂之后,那些私人债务大幅攀升的国家会出现较大程度的消费下滑.
如果你借了很多钱买房子(包括房子占用的土地),之后房价很快下跌,那么你更有可能拿钱来还贷,而不是下馆子、买新车或装修房子.

这些消费决策在经济中会放大效应,给荷兰、丹麦、英国等经历过信贷扩张的欧洲国家造成拖累.

国际货币基金组织(InternationalMonetaryFund,简称IMF)今年发布的报告称,以私人债务大规模上升为前奏的房地产危机和经济衰退将更为严重,时间也更为持久.

这种现象在欧洲十分明显.
荷兰和丹麦在危机之前曾出现私人债务水平大幅上升的情况,这两国的家庭消费支出自2008年以来分别下降了3.
3%和3%.
而在英国,经过10年的家庭债务水平激增之后,消费支出下降了3.
5%.

德国去年的消费支出比2008年增长了2.
4%,而之前10年,该国相对于可支配收入的私人债务水平实际上是在下降.

那么欧盟(EuropeanUnion)应该做些什么呢欧盟花费了大量时间来制定防止房地产泡沫和信贷扩张失控的措施.
在新树立起来的宏观经济"记分板"上,有衡量一国经济是否已面临崩溃的指标,也写明了不采取行动解决问题的欧元区国家将受到何种惩罚.

但这些政策都只是预防性措施,出发点不错,但对信贷扩张和房地产泡沫破裂后陷入困境的国家而言却没什么用处.
而且遗憾的是,欧盟的经济规则使各国很难甩掉之前10年来积累的家庭债务负担.

财政政策通常会有所帮助.
美国的财政政策就发挥了作用:政府支出推动了私营领域的去杠杆化.
但欧盟的财政规则迫使各国政府将赤字削减至国内生产总值(GDP)的3%以下.

通过货币政策解决问题的可能性也不大.
发达国家利率水平已经很低,而欧洲央行(EuropeanCentralBank)似乎也不大可能持久实施非常规的放松性货币政策.
比利时鲁汶天主教大学(CatholicUniversityofLeuven)经济学教授PaulDeGrauwe说,恐怕欧洲是选择了一条最痛苦的路.
IMF的报告指出,最终能发挥作用的还是大胆的债务减免计划.
比如,在大萧条时期,美国HomeOwners'LoanCorporation从银行购买了大约100万笔不良抵押贷款,然后协商出对借款人更优惠的条款,从而缓解了债务负担沉重的家庭挤压消费的问题.

但出于多种原因,欧洲官员不大可能实施这样的计划.
最大的障碍就是政治问题,比如,西班牙人会对德国债权人说,他们不会偿还债务.

DeGrauwe表示,欧洲缺少一个强制执行机构.
真的需要有一个全欧洲层面的联邦政府,但现在没有.

由于现在还没有什么解决之道,再加上经济不振的影响,欧洲消费者的减债之路漫长而艰苦.