五星级酒店多家五星酒店回应网传名媛拼单

豪威盛深圳办事处|中国广东省深圳市罗湖区建设路1072号东方广场5楼509室,邮编:518001HVSShenzhen|Room509,OrientalPlaza,1072JiansheRoad,Shenzhen518001,Guangdong,Chinawww.
hvs.
com中国主要城市五星级酒店市场业绩展望FIVE-STARHOTELPERFORMANCEOUTLOOKINMAJORCHINACITIES2015年9月|价格:500美元2015.
09|PRICE$500黄致超HenrichHuang董事Director武文博VincentWu高级分析师SeniorAnalyst刘巧CiaoLiu副经理AssistantManager中国主要城市五星级酒店市场业绩展望|第2页FIVE-STARHOTELPERFORMANCEOUTLOOKINMAJORCHINACITIES|PAGE2图表1:北京市五星级酒店市场业绩,2011–2017(预测)FIGURE1:FIVE-STARHOTELPERFORMANCEINBEIJING,2011–2017F来源:中国国家旅游局和豪威盛调研Source:CNTA&HVSResearch概述Highlights本文对中国7个主要城市的五星级酒店市场业绩进行预测.
本文所采用的数据来源于中国国家旅游局以及豪威盛的调研.
我们通过分析五星级酒店市场的供求趋势预测了入住率和平均房价.
Thisarticleprovidesaprojectiononthefive-starhotelperformancein7majorcitiesinChina.
DatausedinthisarticlewasretrievedfromChinaNationalTourismAdministrationandHVSresearch.
Trendsinsupplyanddemandforfive-starhotelswereexaminedtoprojectoccupancyandaveragerate.
五星级酒店市场业绩展望Five-StarHotelPerformanceOutlook北京Beijing在2008年北京奥运会期间,北京市五星级酒店供应经历快速发展后,最近几年呈现平稳增长趋势.
截至2014年底,北京共有62家五星级酒店,提供客房32,934间.
随着通州区正式成为北京市行政副中心,北京市的主要开发商可能会将重心放在该区域,向市场提供更多高档酒店供应.
此外,2022年冬奥会申办成功也将掀起酒店开发的又一轮热潮.
然而,考虑到2008年后酒店市场业绩不甚理想,开发商将可能表现得较为保守.
由于北京的经济发展已趋于成熟,酒店需求增长在未来3年里可能会保持稳定态势.
然而,随着一些企业搬迁到廊坊和保定,酒店客源需求在一定程度上也将被稀释.
Aftertheboomingdevelopmentduringthe2008BeijingOlympics,five-starhotelsupplyinBeijingexperiencedplacidincreaseinrecentyears.
Bytheendof2014,the62five-starhotelsinBeijingoffered32,934rooms.
WhiletheTongzhouDistrictofficiallybecamethesecondadministrativeseatofBeijingasa"sub-administrativecentre"forthemunicipality,majordevelopersinBeijingmayplacetheiremphasisonthisdistrict,addingmoreupscalehotelsupplytothemarket.
Moreover,thesuccessfulbidforthe2022WinterOlympicsmayalsoleadtoanotherboominhoteldevelopment.
Nevertheless,consideringtheunsatisfacoryhotelperformanceafter2008,developersmaybecomemoreconservativethistime.
TheincreaseindemandmayremainsteadyinthenextthreeyearsconsideringthatBeijinghasalmostbecomeamatureeconomy.
However,therelocationofsomecompaniestoLangfangandBaodingmaydilutesomehoteldemandinBeijing.
中国主要城市五星级酒店市场业绩展望|第3页FIVE-STARHOTELPERFORMANCEOUTLOOKINMAJORCHINACITIES|PAGE3图表2:上海市五星级酒店市场业绩,2011–2017(预测)FIGURE2:FIVE-STARHOTELPERFORMANCEINSHANGHAI,2011–2017F来源:中国国家旅游局和豪威盛调研Source:CNTA&HVSResearch上海Shanghai自2014年上海虹桥国家会议中心开业以来,上海酒店市场需求发生显著变化.
即将开业的上海迪士尼乐园预计每年将吸引2,000万名游客到沪旅游.
另外,徐汇滨江也成为上海市的另一个重点发展区域.
该区域总部经济、国际医疗服务和航空业的发展将进一步推动商务需求增长.
此外,位于徐汇滨江的东方梦工厂和兰桂坊也将带动休闲需求增长,与迪士尼乐园产生潜在的协同效应.
未来5年间,预计将有更多的酒店进入市场.
市场供求比例将逐步转向成熟市场的动态平衡.
在上海虹桥国家会议中心和迪士尼乐园的推动下,未来2至3年内,上海五星级酒店市场的入住率预计将增长2.
5%–3.
5%.
就平均房价而言,随着未来市场上产品更为多样化和收入管理日益成熟,我们预计上海五星级酒店市场的平均房价在未来2至3年内将稳定增长.
HoteldemandintheShanghaihotelmarketchangedsignificantlysincetheopeningoftheShanghaiHongqiaoNationalConventionCenterin2014.
ThesoontobeopenedShanghaiDisneylandisestimatedtobring20milliontouriststoShanghaiannually.
Besides,XuhuiBinjiangisanotherdevelopmentfocusinShanghai.
Theexpansionoftheheadquartereconomy,theinternationalmedicalservicesandaviationindustryinthisareawillfurthersupportcommercialdemand.
Additionally,theOrientalDreamworksandLanKwaiFonginXuhuiBinjiangwillencouragetheleisuredemandcreatingpotentialsynergieswithDisneyland.
Overthenextfiveyears,morehotelsareexpectedtoenterthemarket.
Themarket'ssupplyanddemandratiowillgraduallyshifttowardsadynamicequilibriumofamaturemarket.
DrivenbytheNationalConventionCentreandDisneyland,occupancyrateofthefive-starhotelmarketisanticipatedtogrowby2.
5%-3.
5%inthenext2-3years,.
Intermsofaveragerate,theprospectofproductdiversificationandincreasingsophisticationinrevenuemanagementacrossthemarketmaydrivetheaveragerateofShanghaifive-starhotelstosteadilygrowinthecoming2-3years.
中国主要城市五星级酒店市场业绩展望|第4页FIVE-STARHOTELPERFORMANCEOUTLOOKINMAJORCHINACITIES|PAGE4图表3:广州市五星级酒店市场业绩,2011–2017(预测)FIGURE3:FIVE-STARHOTELPERFORMANCEINGUANGZHOU,2011–2017F来源:中国国家旅游局和豪威盛调研Source:CNTA&HVSResearch广州Guangzhou广州五星级酒店市场自2011年以来迅猛发展;2008年至2014年间,该市五星级酒店客房供应的复合年均增长率达到13%.
未来几年内可能会继续保持这一增长趋势,预计将有柏悦、康莱德和卓美亚等国际豪华酒店品牌开业.
此外,一些传统的五星级酒店,如白天鹅宾馆、花园酒店和广州中国大酒店,为了提高竞争力,最近也已完成翻新.
然而,需求增长似乎落后于供应增长的速度.
广交会仍然是广州最大的盛会和酒店的重要需求驱动因素,将继续推动五星级酒店的需求增长.
一些酒店正在打价格战,以应对激烈的市场竞争,因而导致平均房价出现小幅下降.
然而,随着市场上酒店的整体质量提高,预计平均房价将会出现回升.
Thefive-starhotelmarketinGuangzhouexperiencedrapiddevelopmentsince2011;thecompoundannualgrowthrateinfive-starhotelroominventorybetween2008and2014is13%.
Thistrendmaycontinueinthenextfewyearswhilesomeinternationalluxuryhotelbrands,includingParkHyatt,ConradandJumeirah,arescheduledtoopen.
Inaddition,sometraditionalfive-starhotels,suchasWhiteSwanHotel,GardenHotelandChinaHotel,havealsorecentlyfinishedtheirrenovationtoincreasetheircompetitiveness.
However,demandgrowthseemstotrailsupplyexpansion.
TheCantonFairremainsthebiggesteventinGuangzhouandasignificantdemandgeneratorforhotelsoveralimitedtimeperiodoftheyear,whichcontinuestodrivedemandforfive-starhotels.
Somehotelsareconductingpricewartocopewiththefiercecompetition,leadingtoaminordecreaseinaveragerate.
However,theaveragerateisprojectedtorecoverastheoverallqualityofhotelsinthemarketimproves.
中国主要城市五星级酒店市场业绩展望|第5页FIVE-STARHOTELPERFORMANCEOUTLOOKINMAJORCHINACITIES|PAGE5图表4:深圳市五星级酒店市场业绩,2011–2017(预测)FIGURE4:FIVE-STARHOTELPERFORMANCEINSHENZHEN,2011–2017F来源:中国国家旅游局和豪威盛调研Source:CNTA&HVSResearch深圳Shenzhen与其他一线城市相比,深圳市的五星级酒店供应和地理分布更为合理.
不久的将来预计会有大量高端和豪华酒店在不同区域开业,其中包括福田区的柏悦酒店和文华东方酒店、罗湖区的美高梅酒店、前海片区的JW万豪酒店和南山区的莱佛士酒店.
深圳五星级酒店市场潜在的商务需求增长将主要来自于"湾区经济",例如前海片区的金融、信息和技术、现代物流等服务业,以及深圳湾高科技产业园的发展.
赴港的过境游客是深圳休闲需求的重要驱动因素,然而在发生一系列针对大陆游客的事件后,这部分需求最近有所下降.
相反,随着大鹏湾海洋生态经济区和生态旅游度假区的发展以及家庭和探亲访友客源数量的增长,深圳市的休闲需求将呈现持续增长态势.
会奖需求预计与前几年持平.
因此,我们对深圳五星级酒店入住率和平均房价的前景依然保持乐观态度.
Comparedtootherfirst-tiercities,Shenzhenhasamorereasonablefive-starhotelsupplyandgeographicdistribution.
Anumberofhigh-endandluxuryhotelsareexpectedtoopenindifferentdistrictsinthenearfuture,inculdingParkHyattandMandarinOrientalinFutianDistrict,MGMGrandinLuohuDistrict,JWMarriottinQianhaiareaandRafflesinNanshanDistrict.
ThepotentialincreaseincommercialdemandintheShenzhenfive-starhotelmarketwillcomefrom'BayAreaeconomy',forinstance,thedevelopmentofserviceindustriessuchasfinancial,informationandtechnology,andmodernlogisticsinQianhaiareaandhigh-techindustrialparksinShenzhenBay.
TransitvisitorstoHongKongdriveShenzhen'sleisuredemand,whichhoweverhasbeenshrinkingoflateafteraseriesofincidentstowardtomainlandvisitors.
Conversely,oftheexpansionoftheMarineEcologicalEconomicZoneandeco-tourismresortinDapengBayandthegrowthoffamilyandfriendsvisitation,leisuredemandinShenzhenwillcontinuetogrow.
MICEdemandisexpectedtobeflatwithpreviousyears.
Thus,theprospectsforbothoccupancyrateandaveragerateoffive-starhotelsinShenzhenremainspositive.
中国主要城市五星级酒店市场业绩展望|第6页FIVE-STARHOTELPERFORMANCEOUTLOOKINMAJORCHINACITIES|PAGE6图表5:成都市五星级酒店市场业绩,2011–2017(预测)FIGURE5:FIVE-STARHOTELPERFORMANCEINCHENGDU,2011–2017F来源:中国国家旅游局和豪威盛调研Source:CNTA&HVSResearch成都Chengdu在未来4至5年内,预计成都的国际品牌酒店数量将快速增长.
预计成都华尔道夫酒店、成都W酒店、成都文华东方酒店、成都JW万豪酒店和成都康莱德酒店将陆续开业.
虽然过去两年里,中国西部国际博览会和全国糖酒商品展览会的规模有所缩小,但豪华汽车和奢侈品的体验活动与产品发布会仍将继续推动成都会奖市场的发展.
超过半数的《财富》世界500强企业已进驻成都,并将进一步推动该市商务需求的增长.
此外,成都天府新区和"北改"工程的发展也势必会推动该地区的商务、休闲和会奖市场发展.
预计在新增供应被市场吸纳之前,供求不平衡将对成都五星级酒店的入住率产生负面影响.
由于酒店在中期内面临的竞争加剧,因此平均房价也会受到新增供应的影响.
Chengduissettowitnessthemostrapiddevelopmentofinternationalbrandhotelsintheforthcoming4-5years.
WaldorfAstoriaChengdu,WChengdu,MandarinOrientalChengdu,JWMarriottHotelChengduandConradChengduarescheduledtoopen.
AlthoughthescaleoftheWesternChinaInternationalFair,andtheChinaNationalSugarandAlcoholicCommoditiesFairreducedinthepasttwoyears,theexperienceeventsandproductreleaseconferenceofluxuryvehiclesandluxuryproductswillcontinuetodrivetheMICEmarketinChengdu.
Overhalfoftheworld'sFortune500enterpriseshaveenteredChengduandwillfurthersupportcommercialdemand.
DevelopmentoftheTianfuNewAreaandNorthAreaReconstructionisboundtoenhancetheregionalcommercial,leisureandMICEmarket.
Itisexpectedthattheoccupancyrateoffive-starhotelsinChengduwillbenegativelyimpactedbytheimbalanceofsupplyanddemanduntilthenewsupplyisabsorbedbythemarket.
Averageratewillalsobeaffectedbythenewsuppliesashotelsfaceincreasinglevelsofcompetitioninthemediumterm.
中国主要城市五星级酒店市场业绩展望|第7页FIVE-STARHOTELPERFORMANCEOUTLOOKINMAJORCHINACITIES|PAGE7图表6:重庆市五星级酒店市场业绩,2011–2017(预测)FIGURE6:FIVE-STARHOTELPERFORMANCEINCHONGQING,2011–2017F来源:中国国家旅游局和豪威盛调研Source:CNTA&HVSResearch重庆Chongqing重庆五星级酒店供应近年来呈现稳定增长趋势.
与2013年相比,2014年重庆市的五星级酒店供应量增长了17%,客房数量超过8,000间.
预计文华东方、瑰丽和丽笙等品牌即将进驻该市场.
2013年开业的国际博览中心成为会议和展览业的重要需求驱动因素.
此外,两江新区的发展将进一步推动商务需求的增长.
四大温泉区仍将是重庆及其周边地区的主要休闲和高端会奖需求驱动因素.
因此,预计重庆五星级酒店入住率在不久的将来会出现显著增长,而平均房价在反腐运动的影响下将出现小幅下滑.
重庆酒店供应将从市中心向市郊扩展.
越来越多的酒店供应将分布在南坪商业区和四大温泉区.
ThesupplyofChongqing'sfive-starhotelshasincreasedsteadilyinrecentyears.
Comparedtothenumberoffive-starhotelsin2013,supplyhadincreasedby17%toover8,000roomsin2014.
MandarinOriental,RosewoodandRadissonBluareexpectedtoenterthemarketsoon.
TheInternationalExpoCentreopenedin2013,intendedtobeanimportantdemandgeneratorintheconferenceandexhibitionindustry.
Inaddition,thedevelopmentoftheLiangjiangNewAreawillfurtherboostthecommercialdemand.
FourHotSpringParkswillcontinuetobetheprimaryleisureandhigh-endMICEdemandgeneratorsinChongqinganditssurroundingareas.
Accordingly,occupancyrateofChongqingfive-starhotelisexpectinganimpressivegrowthinthenearfutureandtheaverageroomratewillhaveslightlydropinfluencedbytheanti-corruptioncampaign.
ThehotelsupplyinChongqingwillspreadoutfromthecitycentretosuburbs.
MorehotelsupplieswillbedistributedinNanpingBusinessDistrictandFourHotSpringParks.
中国主要城市五星级酒店市场业绩展望|第8页FIVE-STARHOTELPERFORMANCEOUTLOOKINMAJORCHINACITIES|PAGE8图表7:天津市五星级酒店市场业绩,2011–2017(预测)FIGURE7:FIVE-STARHOTELPERFORMANCEINTIANJIN,2011–2017F来源:中国国家旅游局和豪威盛调研Source:CNTA&HVSResearch天津Tianjin天津五星级酒店供应近年来增长迅速.
五星级酒店客房数占整体市场总客房供应量的比例从2010年的18%增至2014年的28%.
目前,天津市场上共有15家五星级酒店,供应客房5,003间.
近年来已有多家主要酒店品牌进入天津市场,包括瑞吉、丽思卡尔顿、悦榕庄、豪华精选、威斯汀和英迪格等.
得益于政府开发渤海湾地区的政策利好,在今年8月滨海新区发生重大爆炸之前,天津已成为华北地区最受酒店投资者看好的城市之一.
爆炸事件可能会使投资者对酒店市场的信心产生负面影响.
而出于安全考虑,游客可能会避开入住附近的酒店.
然而,从长远来看,爆炸事件所带来的负面影响不会一直持续.
考虑到天津的经济结构和自然旅游资源并不突出,预计未来几年内商务需求仍将占据主导地位,约占客源市场的70%.
访客人次和五星级酒店需求的增长预计将推动市场入住率和平均房价在未来几年内稳定上升.
Thefive-starhotelsupplyinTianjinhasbeenincreasingrapidlyinrecentyears.
Thepercentageoffive-starhotelroomsincreasedfrom18%in2010to28%in2014.
The15five-starhotelsinTianjinarenowoffering5,003roomsinthemarket.
Severalleadinghotelbrandshavealreadyenteredthemarketinrecentyears,includingSt.
Regis,TheRitz-Calton,BanyanTree,LuxuryCollection,Westin,andIndigo.
BenefitingfromthegovernmentpolicyondevelopingtheBohaiBayRim,TianjinhadbeenoneofthemostpromisingcityforhotelinvestorsinNorthChinauntilthehugeexplosionhappenedatBinhaiNewAreainAugust.
Theexplosionmayhaveanegativeimpactoninvestors'confidenceinthemarket.
Visitorsmayalsoavoidstayinginhotelsintheneighbourhoodforsafetyconcerns.
However,theimpactoftheexplosionmaynotlastinthelongterm.
ConsideringtheeconomicstructureinTianjinanditslessprominentnaturaltourismresources,commercialdemandisexpectedtocontinuetodominatethemarketinthenextfewyears,constitutingnearly70%intermsofmarketsegmentation.
Thegrowthinvisitorarrivalsanddemandforfive-starhotelsisexpectedtodrivethemarketoccupancyandaverageratetosteadilyincreaseinthenextfewyears.
中国主要城市五星级酒店市场业绩展望|第9页FIVE-STARHOTELPERFORMANCEOUTLOOKINMAJORCHINACITIES|PAGE9图表8:中国7个主要城市的五星级酒店市场业绩FIGURE8:FIVE-STARHOTELPERFORMANCEOF7KEYMARKETSINCHINA来源:中国国家旅游局和豪威盛调研Source:CNTA&HVSResearch豪威盛深圳办事处|中国广东省深圳市罗湖区建设路1072号东方广场5楼509室,邮编:518001HVSShenzhen|Room509,OrientalPlaza,1072JiansheRoad,Shenzhen518001,Guangdong,Chinawww.
hvs.
com豪威盛简介豪威盛是一家全球领先的咨询与服务机构,服务范围主要涉及酒店、综合开发项目、共享所有权、博彩和休闲业.
豪威盛成立于1980年,今年已迈入35周年,每年为全球的酒店及房地产业主、管理公司和开发商进行超过4,500个咨询服务项目.
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豪威盛在全球各地设有超过35家办事处,由500多名经验丰富的专业人士组成,为酒店业提供无与伦比的优质配套服务.
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com以全球视野结合本土智慧,引领酒店行业开拓卓越绩效.
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公司在亚太地区主办三大主要行业年会,即在上海举行的中国酒店投资高峰论坛(CHIC)、在印度举行的南亚酒店投资会议(HICSA)以及在巴厘岛举行的印度尼西亚旅游、酒店投资与交流峰会(THINC).
豪威盛也发表内容领先的各类研究报告,研究报告可通过我们的网站下载.
豪威盛深圳团队至今已完成了大量的咨询与服务项目,涵盖的领域十分广泛,包括经济研究、酒店估值、运营商搜寻和管理合同谈判、新品牌发展战略、资产管理、研究报告,以及酒店、度假酒店、服务式住宅和品牌住宅开发项目的投资咨询.
作者简介黄致超现任豪威盛深圳办事处董事,主要负责酒店估值与咨询相关服务.
他于2013年加入豪威盛,此前他在亚洲和欧洲拥有8年的酒店管理、运营与开发经验.
黄致超2005年毕业于瑞士格里昂高等教育学院,曾从事酒店行业各个不同方面的工作.
自加入豪威盛以来,他为亚洲各地区的市场提供了包括酒店投资建议和总体规划、可行性研究及酒店战略咨询等服务.
武文博现任豪威盛深圳办事处高级分析师,负责为大中华区的客户提供估值、咨询和投资服务.
对酒店行业有着非常深入的了解,拥有香港国际连锁酒店工作经验.
武文博毕业于香港理工大学,获荣誉理学士学位.
刘巧是豪威盛深圳办事处的副经理,从事咨询和估值工作.
加入豪威盛之前,她就职于丽思卡尔顿、康莱德、洲际酒店及华美达酒店的前厅部及销售部,获得了丰富的酒店开业经验.
对豪华酒店品牌运营和筹建有其独特的见解.
豪威盛深圳办事处|中国广东省深圳市罗湖区建设路1072号东方广场5楼509室,邮编:518001HVSShenzhen|Room509,OrientalPlaza,1072JiansheRoad,Shenzhen518001,Guangdong,Chinawww.
hvs.
comAboutHVSHVS,theworld'sleadingconsultingandservicesorganizationfocusedonthehotel,mixed-use,sharedownership,gaming,andleisureindustries,celebratesits35thanniversarythisyear.
Establishedin1980,thecompanyperforms4,500+assignmentseachyearforhotelandrealestateowners,operators,anddevelopersworldwide.
HVSprincipalsareregardedastheleadingexpertsintheirrespectiveregionsoftheglobe.
Throughanetworkofmorethan35officesandmorethan500professionals,HVSprovidesanunparalleledrangeofcomplementaryservicesforthehospitalityindustry.
HVS.
comSuperiorResultsthroughUnrivalledHospitalityIntelligence.
Everywhere.
HVSASIAPACIFICisrepresentedbyeightofficesinHongKong,Bangkok,Beijing,Shenzhen,Jakarta,Shanghai,NewDelhiandSingapore.
HVShoststhreeofthemainannualindustryeventsintheregion,namelytheChinaHotelInvestmentConference(CHIC)inShanghai,HotelInvestmentConferenceSouthAsia(HICSA)inIndiaandTourism,HotelInvestment&NetworkingConference(THINC)IndonesiainBali.
Additionally,HVSpublishesawiderangeofleadingresearchreports,articlesandsurveys,whichcanbedownloadedfromouronlinelibrary.
TheShenzhenteamhasworkedonabroadarrayofprojectsthatincludeeconomicstudies,hotelvaluations,operatorsearchandmanagementcontractnegotiation,developmentstrategiesfornewbrands,assetmanagement,researchreportsandinvestmentadvisoryforhotels,resorts,servicedresidencesandbrandedresidentialdevelopmentprojects.
AbouttheAuthorsHenrichHuangisaDirectorwiththeHVSShenzhenoffice,specializinginhotelvaluationandconsultancy.
HejoinedHVSin2013aftereightyearsofHotelManagement,operationanddevelopmentexperienceinbothAsiaandEurope.
HenrichgraduatedfromGlionInstituteofHigherEducationin2005andhasworkedatalldifferentsidesofthehospitalityindustry.
SincejoiningHVShehasprovidedhotelinvestmentadviceandmasterplanning,feasibilitystudies,strategicadvisoriesandotherconsultancyassignmentsinnumerousplacesacrossAsiaVincentWuisaSeniorAnalystofHVSShenzhen,providesvaluation,consultingandinvestmentservicesforclientsthroughouttheGreaterChinaregion.
HebringsastrongunderstandingofthehospitalityindustrytoHVS.
HisexperienceininternationalhotelchainsinHongKongiscomplementedbyanHonorsBachelorofScienceDegreefromtheHongKongPolytechnicUniversity.
CiaoLiuisanAssistantManagerwiththeHVSShenzhenOffice,specializinginConsulting&Valuation.
PriortojoiningHVS,CiaogainedexperienceinSalesandFront-of-HouseroleswiththeRitz-Carlton,Conrad,InterContinentalandRamadabrands,primarilyduringhotelopeningperiods.
Shehasastrongunderstandingofluxurybrandsoperationsandpre-openingprocesses.